Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 22.531.017
von aurisinterna am 11.07.06 21:59:02Ich
glaube, ich werde auch beim naechsten Ruecksetzer wieder
zuschlagen. Ich wuerde mich im Falle eines Spin-Offs sogar ueber
Kraft-Aktien freuen, auch wenn das die meisten Aktionaere anders
sehen (CNNMoney.com):
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What's next for Altria after smoke settles?
Wednesday July 12, 7:00 pm ET
By Rob Kelley, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Up until last week, there was a massive cloud over Altria - a cloud
six years long and billions of dollars strong.
The cigarette, food and beer maker was one of the targets of a
massive class-action suit representing 700,000 Florida smokers. In
July 2000, a jury awarded smokers $145 billion - the biggest
punitive damage award in U.S. history.
But last Thursday, the Florida Supreme Court upheld a ruling that
the verdict was excessive and also ruled that future tobacco
lawsuits must proceed individually as opposed to on a class action
basis.
The news sent Altria stock soaring, in part because the ruling
could bring about the long-awaited breakup of the company.
In November 2004, Altria CEO Louis Camilleri told investors that
the company was considering splitting off several of its businesses
when the company's litigation troubles had settled.
Investors are eager for Altria to move on with the restructuring
process - and potentially get more value out of its core businesses
by selling them off.
Altria, which owns nearly 90 percent of Kraft Foods, has long
talked about spinning Kraft off from its core tobacco business.
Camilleri even hinted in 2004 that the company might divide into
"potentially three, strong and independent entities" - meaning that
the tobacco division might split into domestic and
international.
Shares of Altria are up about 7 percent this year. And now that the
biggest single impediment to its U.S. tobacco business has been
lifted, will Altria's stock keep smoking?
While Altria has products all over the map, two-thirds of its sales
still come from its Philip Morris tobacco business.
But Altria, which owns the Marlboro, Parliament and Virginia Slims
brands, has had to make up for slowing U.S. cigarette growth with
international expansion and higher prices.
There was no growth in U.S. cigarette shipments in the first
quarter of this year.
Christopher Growe, an analyst with A.G. Edwards, said U.S.
cigarette volume may actually decline in the future but that price
increases could help soften the blow.
But Altria still has significant opportunities to grow abroad.
International shipments jumped nearly 5 percent in the first
quarter and international volume now makes up 83 percent of
Altria's cigarette shipments.
The company made gains in nine countries across Europe and Asia in
the first quarter, though sales fell in Japan and Spain, which are
vital markets.
Philip Morris International should continue to grow and also post
strong profits, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Judy Hong.
It also doesn't hurt that the debate about smoking is less intense
internationally. As a result, there are fewer lawsuits against
tobacco companies outside the U.S.
Altria's other moneymaker is Kraft, the world's second-largest food
company behind Nestle. The maker of Jell-O and Oreo cookies brought
in a third of the company's sales in the first quarter. (Altria
also owns a 29 percent stake in SABMiller, the brewer behind such
brands as Miller Lite and Pilsner Urquell.)
But analysts see Kraft's revenue growth slowing to 1 percent this
year, and investors are eager to see the company develop new
products, as private brands gain ground on its current
offerings.
Shares of Kraft have underperformed over the past two years,
sagging 3 percent. Analysts say that's held back Altria's overall
performance and is one of the reasons why a full spin-off makes
sense.
"A spin-off for Kraft would really force a higher valuation for the
tobacco entity," said A.G. Edwards' Growe. He calculates the value
of Altria in the mid-$90s after a break-up, up from about $77
now.
He expects a break up could come in six months to a year. Other
analysts said Altria is probably waiting to see if recent
initiatives to boost lagging sales will help before going ahead
with the split.
Kraft has cut jobs, closed plants, and recently ousted CEO Roger
Deromedi in favor of Irene Rosenfeld, the former head of PepsiCo's
Frito-Lay snacks division, who is expected to initiate and push new
brands.
And earlier this week, Kraft announced it was buying the Spanish
and Portuguese assets of United Biscuits for about $1 billion in
order to strengthen its cookie business in Europe.
Altria has long been considered a classic widow-and-orphan stock -
great for its stability and big annual dividend, currently about
4.1 percent.
But Growe thinks the stock is still undervalued by about 15
percent.
"There's a very small value being placed on the U.S. tobacco
operation," he said. "It should be valued much higher."
Altria is currently trading at 14.8 times 2006 earnings estimates,
a slight premium to the average P/E for other U.S. tobacco stocks
like Reynolds American and Carolina Group, as well as international
cigarette makers British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco
Group.
A larger premium might be justified for Altria since its earnings
are expected to grow 7 percent next year and 8 percent annually, on
average, for the next few years, slightly higher than the overall
tobacco industry.
Altria's more rapidly growing international tobacco business also
would probably be able to command a higher valuation if the company
chose to spin-off that unit.
But a spin-off of Kraft is really the crucial event investors are
waiting for. And now that the biggest potential legal headache for
Altria is behind it, the company should be able to concentrate on
shedding its slower-growth food business.
A.G. Edwards' Growe and his firm own shares of Altria but A.G.
Edwards has not done banking for the company. Goldman Sachs' Hong
does not own shares in Altria but her firm is a shareholder and has
done investment banking business with the company.
Related: Altria split still seen as months off
Related: All Stock Spotlight pieces
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