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Bewertungsthread Thompson Creek Metals (alte Blue Pearl Mining) (Seite 120)

eröffnet am 24.09.06 14:20:17 von
Firsteven

neuester Beitrag 01.07.14 10:11:52 von
Mason01
Beiträge: 1.495
ID: 1.083.768
Aufrufe heute: 0
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Videomart
schrieb am 26.10.07 00:00:01
Beitrag Nr. 1.191 (32.156.563)

LONDON, Oct 25 - Strong demand of more than 4 percent a year and stagnant supplies will boost prices of molybdenum, prized for its ability to harden stainless steel.

ADVERTISEMENT
Molybdenum hit a 16-month low of $21 a pound in February 2006, but has since recovered to around $32 a pound, only $7 away from the record high around $39 set in June 2005, when a processing bottleneck hit supplies.

Three-quarters of global annual molybdenum production is used to manufacture stainless steel, demand for which is expected to grow by around 6 percent a year for some years.

"Demand is forecast to increase by 4 to 5 percent a year," Larry Reaugh, executive chairman at Toronto-listed Adanac Molybdenum Corporation said at an event organised by Mining Communications.

That forecast compares with averages around 3 percent in previous years. Much of the demand for stainless steel is seen coming from emerging market countries such as China, which is spending large amounts on building infrastructure.

Molybdenum is used the oil industry for steel pipes and as a catalyst in petroleum refining. Molybdenum sulphide is also a good lubricant, especially at high temperatures where normal oils decompose.

Last year total global molybdenum production and demand at more than 420 million pounds was roughly balanced, according to the International Molybdenum Association.

Molybdenum is mined for itself and is also a by-product of copper production.

"Seventy percent of output in the Western world is a by-product of copper, is stagnating," said Anthony Warwick-Ching at consultants CRU Group.

"Primary mines are close to capacity. Supply has to be pretty tight for a while ahead."

As molybdenum prices started to rise in 2004 many miners switched from producing copper.

"That phase is ending now," Warwick-Ching said. "They've taken out all the easily available material.

Speakers at the event also highlighted China's growing role in the world market for molybdenum.

China last year accounted for about 30 percent of world supplies from about 10 percent a few years ago.

But that number could be drastically lower this year as the country is on a drive to shut down polluting mines.

"China has shut down over 300 moly mines," said Ian McDonald, executive chairman at Toronto-listed Thompson Creek Metals Company . "Exports from China have been declining this year ... Over the next few years we're set to have a good time."
Quelle: stockhouse.ca
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allesaufblau
schrieb am 26.10.07 07:38:06
Beitrag Nr. 1.192 (32.157.132)
VectorVest Stock Analysis of Thompson Creek as of 10/25/2007

Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. TCM has a current Value of $43.68 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $24.74 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.

RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. TCM has an RV of 1.64, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, Scotia Capital Incorporated Corporate Long Term Bonds, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.

RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. TCM has an RS rating of 1.14, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.

RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. TCM has a Relative Timing rating of 1.77, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.

VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. TCM has a VST rating of 1.55, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.

Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. TCM has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.

Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. TCM has a Stop of $20.85 per share. This is $3.89 below TCM's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.

GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. TCM has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 34.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, (8.32%).

EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. TCM has a forecasted EPS of $2.26 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.

P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. TCM has a P/E of 10.95. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 44.70. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.

EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. TCM has an EY of 9.15 percent. This is above the current average of 2.22% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).

GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. TCM has a GPE rating of 3.12. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.82%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.34. Therefore, TCM may be considered to be undervalued.

Dividend Analysis Back to top

DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. TCM does not pay a dividend.

DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects dividend per share as a percent of Price. TCM does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.


DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. TCM does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.

DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. TCM does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .

YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. TCM does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.

Price-Volume Data Back to top

Price: TCM closed on 10/25/2007 at $24.74 per share

Open: TCM opened trading at a price of $24.42 per share on 10/25/2007.

High: TCM traded at a High price of $24.83 per share on 10/25/2007.

Low: TCM traded at a Low price of $24.02 per share on 10/25/2007

Close: TCM closed trading at price $24.74 per share on 10/25/2007. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)

Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. TCM traded with a range of $0.81 per share on 10/25/2007.

$Change: TCM closed up 0.65 from the prior day's closing Price.

%PRC: TCM's Price changed 2.70% from the prior day's closing price.

Volume: TCM traded 839,817 shares on 10/25/2007.

AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. TCM has an AvgVol of 1,507,000 shares traded per day.

%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100. TCM had a %Vol of -44.27% on 10/25/2007

CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. TCM has a CI rating of 1.88, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.

Sales / Market Capitalization Information Back to top

Sales: TCM has annual sales of $748,000,000.00

Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. TCM has a Sales Growth of 999.00% per year. This is excellent. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.

Sales Per Share (SPS): TCM has annual sales of $6.66 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.

Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): TCM has a P/S of 3.71. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.

Shares: TCM has 112,000,000.00 shares of stock outstanding.

Market Capitalization: TCM has a Market Capitalization of $2,778,000,000.00. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.

Summary Back to top

TCM is undervalued compared to its Price of $24.74 per share, has somewhat above average safety, and is currently rated a Buy.
Go TCM Go!
Avatar
Videomart
schrieb am 29.10.07 16:05:18
Beitrag Nr. 1.193 (32.190.617)

Molybdenum Price
US$32.55 /lb

Metals Week Average,
Molybdenum Oxide,
October 29, 2007

Avatar
betzo
schrieb am 31.10.07 21:55:55
Beitrag Nr. 1.194 (32.225.349)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/markets

Scotia hikes moly share targets

Leonard Zehr, today at 2:12 PM EDT

The sweet smell of molybdenum has Scotia Capital revising the supply-demand outlook for the metal and brightening 2009 and 2010 price forecasts to include a probability weighting for new mines.
While there is no impact on the forecast long-term price of $12 (U.S.) a pound, effective in 2015, analyst Lawrence Smith is raising the average price forecast to $19.67 from $17.50, covering the stretch from 2009 to 2014.
As a result, he pushed up price targets for General Moly Inc., to $11 from $9.50; for Thompson Creek Metals Co. to $27.50 (Canadian) from $24; and for Moly Mines Ltd. to $4.25 from $4.
Among other things, he predicts close to a balanced market in 2009, compared with a previous surplus forecast of 7.7 million pounds, and a surplus of 17.9 million pounds in 2010, compared with a surplus of 35.4 million pounds earlier.
The supply-demand outlook for molybdenum had assumed that new projects would contribute some 25 million pounds of production in 2009 and 65 million pounds in 2010. Now, he has reduced the forecast of new supply by about 30 per cent in both 2009 and 2010, citing probable delays to start and ramp up production.
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sloopjohn
schrieb am 01.11.07 10:13:12
Beitrag Nr. 1.195 (32.228.102)
"Rohstoffspiegel" v.01.Nov.2007 - Artikel zu Molybdän, TCM + ein Interview mit Adanac(Seite 4 ff):

http://www.rohstoff-spiegel.de/count.php?url=rs_2007-22.pdf

Avatar
Videomart
schrieb am 04.11.07 17:18:08
Beitrag Nr. 1.196 (32.277.358)

Nachfolgend die Liste der größten Instis, die zur Zeit TCM Aktien halten:
(thx capistrano ;) )

Hervorgehoben ist die Führungsebene von TCM
Nummer 1 sind die Shortpositionen (Stand: 15.10.2007)

Ownership for THOMPSON CREEK METALS COMPANY INC. (TCM)

Sort by Sort by % of Report Change
Holder Name Shares Held O/S Date

SHORT POSITIONS 8,570,945 7.59% 15/Oct/2007 789,614
SPROTT CANADIAN EQUITY FUND 6,104,600 5.40% 30/Jun/2007
SPROTT MOLYBDENUM PARTICIPATION CORPORATION ^^^ 3,200,000 2.83% 30/Jun/2007
OPPENHEIMER INTERNATIONAL SMALL COMPANY FUND ^^^ 3,000,000 2.66% 31/May/2007
OPPENHEIMER GOLD & SPECIAL MINERALS FUND, INC. ^^ 1,920,000 1.70% 30/Jun/2007
DYNAMIC POWER CANADIAN GROWTH FUND^^^ 1,079,900 0.96% 30/Jun/2007
KNOLL, KERRY JOHN 879,496 0.78% 19/Jul/2007
MCDONALD, IAN JAMES 790,247 0.70% 19/Jul/2007
SEI CANADIAN EQUITY FUND 726,000 0.64% 30/Jun/2007
SCEPTRE EQUITY GROWTH FUND ^^^ 635,000 0.56% 30/Jun/2007
CANADIAN GENERAL INVESTMENTS FUND 510,000 0.45% 30/Jun/2007
BISSETT ALL CANADIAN FOCUS FUND 472,800 0.42% 30/Jun/2007
SPROTT GROWTH FUND 410,000 0.36% 30/Jun/2007
PRICE, T. DEREK 374,846 0.33% 16/Aug/2007
TD EMERALD CANADIAN EQUITY INDEX FUND 210,900 0.19% 30/Jun/2007
TREDGER, PETER N. 186,462 0.17% 18/Jan/2007
THIRD CANADIAN GENERAL INVESTMENT TRUST 160,000 0.14% 30/Jun/2007
DYNAMIC POWER BALANCED FUND 158,900 0.14% 30/Jun/2007
MIDDLEFIELD - MRF 2006 LIMITED PARTNERSHIP 140,000 0.12% 30/Jun/2007
ARSENAULT, DENIS C. 123,500 0.11% 18/Jan/2007 New Addition
EATON VANCE GLOBAL GROWTH PORTFOLIO 120,000 0.11% 31/May/2007
CMP 2006 RESOURCE LIMITED PARTNERSHIP ^^ 113,400 0.10% 30/Jun/2007
FRONT STREET FLOW THROUGH 2006-1 LP 113,000 0.10% 30/Jun/2007
MACGILLVRAY, LORNA D. 110,769 0.10% 24/Jan/2007
TD CANADIAN SMALL-CAP EQUITY FUND 108,500 0.10% 30/Jun/2007
MANULIFE CANADIAN CORE EQUITY FUND 100,551 0.09% 30/Jun/2007
MIDDLEFIELD CANADIAN GROWTH CLASS 100,000 0.09% 30/Jun/2007
MAVRIX EXPLORE 2006 - IFT LP 100,000 0.09% 30/Jun/2007
IMPERIAL CANADIAN EQUITY POOL ^^ 98,300 0.09% 30/Jun/2007
CDP GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. (CAISSE DE DEPOT) 93,200 0.08% 30/Jun/2007
CIBC PRECIOUS METALS FUND 83,844 0.07% 30/Jun/2007
ISHARES CDN MATERIALS SECTOR INDEX FUND 81,000 0.07% 30/Jun/2007
US GLOBAL INVESTORS - GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND 74,000 0.07% 30/Jun/2007
BMO HARRIS CANADIAN SPECIAL GROWTH PORTFOLIO 71,100 0.06% 30/Jun/2007
ISHARES CDN COMPLETION INDEX FUND 68,376 0.06% 30/Jun/2007
UNITED FINANCIAL CANADIAN EQUITY GROWTH POOL 67,900 0.06% 30/Jun/2007
DUDLEY & SHANLEY LLC ^^ 65,000 0.06% 30/Sep/2007 -10,000
RUSSELL CANADIAN EQUITY FUND 63,900 0.06% 30/Jun/2007
CIBC CANADIAN RESOURCES FUND 60,730 0.05% 30/Jun/2007
CIBC CANADIAN INDEX FUND 59,385 0.05% 30/Jun/2007
LONG RESERVE LIFE RESOURCE FUND 50,000 0.04% 30/Jun/2007
MIDDLEFIELD - MRF 2006 II LIMITED PARTNERSHIP 50,000 0.04% 30/Jun/2007
SOVEREIGN CANADIAN EQUITY POOL 48,900 0.04% 30/Jun/2007
CANADA DOMINION RESOURCES 2006 LP ^^ 48,600 0.04% 30/Jun/2007
FRONT STREET PERFORMANCE FUND II 46,708 0.04% 30/Jun/2007 New
BMO HARRIS GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES PORTFOLIO 46,500 0.04% 30/Jun/2007
DYNAMIC POWER CANADIAN GROWTH CLASS 37,500 0.03% 30/Jun/2007
ISHARES CDN COMPOSITE INDEX FUND 32,844 0.03% 30/Jun/2007
MIDDLEFIELD RESOURCE CLASS 30,000 0.03% 30/Jun/2007
BROMPTON EQUITY SPLIT CORP
ISHARES CDN SMALLCAP INDEX FUND 21,365 0.02% 30/Jun/2007
PUTNAM CANADIAN EQUITY GROWTH FUND 19,500 0.02% 30/Jun/2007
ACCUMULUS NORTH AMERICAN MOMENTUM FUND 17,800 0.02% 30/Jun/2007
PINNACLE STRATEGIC BALANCED FUND 17,600 0.02% 30/Jun/2007
MARQUIS ENHANCED CANADIAN EQUITY POOL (FRMLY CARTIER CANADIAN EQUITY FUND) 17,300 0.02% 30/Jun/2007
FIDELITY SPECIAL SITUATIONS FUND 15,500 0.01% 30/Jun/2007
SCOTIA CANADIAN STOCK INDEX FUND 14,200 0.01% 30/Jun/2007
DFA CANADIAN CORE EQUITY FUND 12,900 0.01% 30/Jun/2007
UNITED FINANCIAL CANADIAN EQUITY DIVERSIFIED POOL 7,500 0.01% 30/Jun/2007
AEGON CAPITAL CANADIAN EQUITY FUND 4,166 0.00% 30/Jun/2007
MANULIFE CORE BALANCED FUND 3,786 0.00% 30/Jun/2007
LOUGHREY, KEVIN 2,750 0.00% 16/Aug/2007
BLUMONT PREMIERE STABLE GROWTH FUND 2,510 0.00% 30/Jun/2007
FONDS DE PLACEMENT DU BARREAU DU QUEBEC - SECTION EQUILIBREE 2,500 0.00% 30/Jun/2007
CLARK, GORDON 2,000 0.00% 01/May/2007
HUFFMAN, DALE 1,000 0.00% 17/Aug/2007
WRIGHT, BRUCE 1,000 0.00% 17/Aug/2007
CIBC BALANCED INDEX FUND 0,609 0.00% 30/Sep/2007
Avatar
Videomart
schrieb am 05.11.07 15:43:59
Beitrag Nr. 1.197 (32.292.457)

Molybdenum Price
US$32.75 /lb

Metals Week Average,
Molybdenum Oxide,
November 5, 2007
Avatar
Videomart
schrieb am 08.11.07 01:06:56
Beitrag Nr. 1.198 (32.334.530)

Thompson Creek schedules Q3 2007 financial results conference call/webcast for November 9 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern

TORONTO, Nov. 7, 2007 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) -- (Canada NewsWire)

Shares outstanding: 113,297,000

TSX: TCM, TCM.WT
Frankfurt: A6R

TORONTO, Nov. 7 /CNW/ - Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc., one of the world's largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producers, has scheduled a conference call for analysts and investors to discuss its third-quarter 2007 financial results on Friday, November 9, 2007 at 11 a.m. (Eastern). A news release on the results will be issued after markets close on November 8, 2007.

Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman, Kevin Loughrey, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Derek Price, Chief Financial Officer, will be available to answer questions during the call.

To participate in the call, please dial 416-644-3430 or 1-800-588-4942 about five minutes prior to the start of the call.
Avatar
Videomart
schrieb am 08.11.07 08:56:51
Beitrag Nr. 1.199 (32.335.550)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.334.530 von Videomart am 08.11.07 01:06:56...
A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available at
www.newswire.ca and www.thompsoncreekmetals.com.

An archived recording of the call will be available at 416-640-1917 or
1-877-289-8525 (Passcode 21252263 followed by the number sign) from 1:00 p.m.
on November 9 to 11:59 p.m. on November 16. An archived recording of the
webcast will also be available at Thompson Creek's website.

Avatar
defiantcookie
schrieb am 08.11.07 16:59:28
Beitrag Nr. 1.200 (32.344.089)
#143566 von chartex 08.11.07 13:35:24 Beitrag Nr.: 32.340.126
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben |


Folgende Antwort bezieht sich auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.337.751 von Reservespieler am 08.11.07 11:08:27
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Zitat:
.....Wenn ich mich korrekt an deine Hochrechnungen der Jahresergebnisse ab 2007 erinnere (bin derzeit leider unterwegs und kann nicht nachschlagen), war es doch so, dass TCM im Q3 ohnehin noch im Umbruch und somit noch nicht wieder in Produktion ist, oder?
Vor diesem Hintergrund ist mir nicht ganz klar, weshalb von den Ergebnissen dieses Quartals so viel erwartet wird. Für den Fall, dass die Zahlen, wenn auch nur gering, hinter den Erwartungen zurückbleiben, wäre für mich eher ein (vorübergehender) Kursrückgang wie auch im Q2 die Folge. Ein deutlicher und nachhaltiger Kursanstieg kann m.E. erst nach der Bekanntgabe der erwarteten strategischen Fakten erwartet werden. Diesbezüglich habe ich den Eindruck, dass diese durchaus bereits greifbarer sein könnten, als es von TCM kommuniziert wird und erst später gezielt placiert werden sollen......
......Hast du bzw. hat irgend jemand diesbezüglich messbarere Informationen? Hat sich deine Einschätzung zu TCM, abgesehen von kursverändenden Ergebnissen, im Ganzen in irgend einer Weise verändert?.....

------------------------------------------------------

Hallo Reservespieler,

in Q2 und insbesondere in Q3 musste sehr viel an taubem Gestein abgeräumt werden, um durch den Übergang auf die Phase 6 des Abbauplanes wieder an Erz mit hoher Molykonzentration heranzukommen. Die Produktion ist dadurch bereits im Q2 deutlich gesunken (trotzdem wurden sehr gute Gewinnzahlen erreicht (0,51 US-$ pro Aktie). Seit Ende Q3 hat man nun wieder Zugriff auf Erz aus dem Boden und wird ab Mitte November die Zone mit dem hochgradigen Erz erreicht haben. Zwischenzeitlich wurde hauptsächlich geringwertiges Erz verarbeitet, das in früheren Zeiten wegen zu geringem Molygehalt erst mal auf Halde gelegt wurde, da die Weiterverarbeitung (auch bedingt durch die damals niedrigen Molypreise) nicht lohnte.
Für das 2. Quartal hatte UBS eine Gewinnprognose abgegeben, die (je nach Quelle, ein Orignalreport liegt mir leider nicht vor) um 30% - 60% zu niedrig lag. Nach dem Hinweis des Management, dass das 3. Quartal das schwierigste sein wird, und die geplante Jahresproduktion um 4%-5% sinken wird (entsprechend breitgetreten durch die Sensationslust der Journalisten auf Negativ-Nachrichten), hat UBS die Gewinnprognose für das 3. Quartal (ausgehend von dem ohnehin bereits viel zu niedrigen Q2-Wert) nochmals nach unten korrigiert.
Da diese Reports üblicherweise kostenpflichtig sind (und ich zu "geizig" bin, mir so etwas zu kaufen - ich verlasse mich lieber auf meine eigenen Recherchen), kann ich das leider nicht mit Quellenangaben oder sonstigen Fakten belegen.
Ich gehe jedoch davon aus, dass
a) die Prognosen der Analysten niedrig liegen
b) die grosse Masse der unwissenden Anleger solche Negativ-Nachrichten gut im Gedächtnis behalten haben
c) aufgrund des gegenüber dem 2. Quartal deutlich höheren Molypreises der Gewinn des 3. Quartales nur wenig unter den Q2-Zahlen liegen wird

Ob meine Berechnungen aus dem August der Realität nahe kommen, werden wir heute abend sehen. Die große Unbekannte bei dieser Rechnung (die ich versucht habe, durch Schätzungen möglichst gut vorherzusagen) ist die tatsächlich in diesem Quartal produzierte Molymenge. Von einem Minimalgewinn in Bereich 0,10 $ bis zu meinen Zahlen mit 0,49$ wurden hier im Thread diverse Werte diskutiert.

Ich stehe nach wie vor zu meiner Berechnung, muss diese allerdings für die im September eingetretene Wechselkursveränderung, welche sich auf die in CAD anfallenden Kosten auswirkt, und um eine geringfügig erhöhte Zahl von Aktien, um 3 ct nach unten korrigieren, rechne also mit 0,46 US-$ Gewinn für das 3. Quartal. Wenn diese Rechnung nicht mehr als 10% von den tatsächlichen Zahlen abweicht, dann bin ich hochzufrieden. Heute Abend werden wir wissen, wer der Realität am nähesten kam.

Wenn die o.g. Annahmen a) und c) zutreffen, der Gewinn also deutlich bis sehr deutlich über den Schätzungen der Analysten liegen sollte, dann würde dies einen Kurssprung nach oben rechtfertigen.
Falls nicht, dann sollte das im Sommer aufgebaute Negativszenario bezüglich TCM (Produktionsrückgang) durch die nunmehr sehr guten Perspektiven (Rückkehr zu normaler Produktion bzw. Produktionssteigerung für 2008) eigentlich ebenfalls für weitere Kurssteigerungen gut sein. Die schwierige Zeit liegt jedenfalls hinter TCM. Auch gehe ich davon aus, dass im Conference-Call am Freitag auf die in Kürze zu erwartenden News eingegangen wird.

Nach meiner persönlichen Auffassung sind bei dem TCM-Management die Ergebnisse der verschiedenen Studien bereits bekannt (wenn auch die Berichte wohl noch nicht in veröffentlichbarer Form vorliegen), und ich gehe davon aus, dass es einige positive Überraschungen geben wird. Ebenfalls nach meiner Auffassung wurde die Fertigstellung zumindest eines Teils dieser Studien bewusst auf die Lange Bank geschoben. Über die Gründe dafür kann ich allerdings nur haltlose Vermutungen anstellen. Zumindest habe ich soviel Vertrauen in das Management, zu glauben, dass dieses Taktieren letzten Endes auch uns Aktionären zugute kommt. Wenn man sich die vom Management gehaltene Zahl von Aktien und Optionen ansieht, dann kann man davon ausgehen, dass auch auf dieser Seite im Interesse des Shareholder-Value gehandelt wird.

Viele Grüsse

chartex




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