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China set for rise in iron ore imports
Michelle Wiese Bockmann - Dienstag 16 Dezember 2008

CHINA is forecast to increase iron ore imports by 40m tonnes in 2009.

Macquarie Research estimated Chinese seaborne iron ore demand in 2009 would rise to 459m tonnes, from an estimated 419m tonnes in 2008.

The estimates were contained in the investment bank’s Shipping Outlook for 2009, which scales back its demand forecasts over the next four years.

The report’s author, Macquarie Research head of regional shipping in Asia John Windham, said there would be a 29% fall in Chinese residential construction in 2009, which he said was a key driver of freight rates.

Residential construction in China, which uses about one fifth of the country’s steel, is expected to drop to just under 400m sq m in 2009, down nearly a third on this year’s level. Growth is then forecast to rise by 23% in 2010.

“If this [residential construction] forecast is correct, then it is certainly a negative indicator for the level of average freight rates in 2009,” the Shipping Outlook report said.

“Ultimately the state of the 2009 dry bulk market will be driven by the performance of the real estate market in China in 2009, and the impact of any potential Chinese policy response to help boost domestic demand.”

Global steel production underpins about half of the world’s seaborne trade in bulk commodities, which Macquarie believed would reach 1.37bn tonnes in 2009, a 0.8% rise on 2008 levels.

China is expected to be the largest steel producer in 2009, at 463m tonnes. This is 3% above 2008 Chinese production levels, which Macquarie estimated at 450m tonnes.

The rise would equate in 2009 to a total raw material requirement of about 896m tonnes of iron ore and 448m tonnes of coking coal, based on Macquarie’s calculation of 1.6 additional tonnes of iron ore and 500,000 tonnes of coking coal for every tonne of steel produced.

However, lower iron ore prices in 2009 could see China import more iron ore, rather than use more-expensive domestic product.

Macquarie Research estimated Chinese domestic iron ore production at 100m tonnes, at a cost of around $100 per tonne.

But it could be cheaper to substitute Brazilian iron ore if prices in 2009 fell below $80 per tonne and bulk carrier freight rates remained low.

Freight rates from Brazil to China are currently about $10 per tonne, well below the highs of $108 seen in mid-2008.

Brazil iron ore contract rates prices are about $140 per tonne.

Macquarie Research has also downgraded forecasts for seaborne coking coal and thermal coal volumes on the back of lower global steel production.

Growth in minor bulk volumes was also forecast to “significantly decelerate”, reaching 3.8% in 2008 to under 1bn tonnes, growing by 1.5% in 2009, and then by 3% in 2010.




Chinese seaborne iron ore demand for 2009 is forecast at 424m tons: Maqcquarie Research
China - 2008 December 17

Maqcquarie Research estimated Chinese seaborne iron ore demand for 2009 at 424m tons. It said 55% of iron ore would be imported from Australia, 25% from Brazil and remaining 20% from India.

The assumptions are based on a 3% increase in Chinese steel production in 2009, to 463m tons, from 450m tons in 2008.

The estimates were contained in the investment bank’s Shipping Outlook for 2009, which scales back its demand forecasts over the next four years.

The report’s author, Macquarie Research head of regional shipping in Asia John Windham, said there would be a 29% fall in Chinese residential construction in 2009, which he said was a key driver of freight rates.

Residential construction in China, which uses about one fifth of the country’s steel, is expected to drop to just under 400m sq m in 2009, down nearly a third on this year’s level. Growth is then forecast to rise by 23% in 2010.

“If this [residential construction] forecast is correct, then it is certainly a negative indicator for the level of average freight rates in 2009,” the Shipping Outlook report said.

“Ultimately the state of the 2009 dry bulk market will be driven by the performance of the real estate market in China in 2009, and the impact of any potential Chinese policy response to help boost domestic demand.”

Global steel production underpins about half of the world’s seaborne trade in bulk commodities, which Macquarie believed would reach 1.37bn tons in 2009, a 0.8% rise on 2008 levels.

China is expected to be the largest steel producer in 2009, at 463m tons. This is 3% above 2008 Chinese production levels, which Macquarie estimated at 450m tons.

The rise would equate in 2009 to a total raw material requirement of about 896m tons of iron ore and 448m tons of coking coal, based on Macquarie’s calculation of 1.6 additional tons of iron ore and 500,000 tons of coking coal for every ton of steel produced.

However, lower iron ore prices in 2009 could see China import more iron ore, rather than use more-expensive domestic product.

Macquarie Research estimated Chinese domestic iron ore production at 100m tons, at a cost of around USD100 per ton.

But it could be cheaper to substitute Brazilian iron ore if prices in 2009 fell below USD80 per ton and bulk carrier freight rates remained low.

Freight rates from Brazil to China are currently about USD10 per ton, well below the highs of USD108 seen in mid-2008.

Brazil iron ore contract rates prices are about USD140 per ton.

Macquarie Research has also downgraded forecasts for seaborne coking coal and thermal coal volumes on the back of lower global steel production.

Growth in minor bulk volumes was also forecast to “significantly decelerate”, reaching 3.8% in 2008 to under 1bn tons, growing by 1.5% in 2009, and then by 3% in 2010.


http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/china-set-for-rise-in-iron…

Könnte mir jemand mal eine gute Seite im Netz nennen, auf der man übersichtlich die Finanzkalender aller wichtigeren Unternehmen findet? Mein portugiesisch ist beispielsweise nicht so stark, um mich bei Vale u.Ä. durch die Homepage gescheit durchzufriemeln.

Vielleicht kennt ja jemand sowas?

Besten Dank

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.283.495 von DiegoDiggler am 30.12.08 18:22:14Du kannst die Vale Homepage doch auch auf Englisch kriegen..

wo ist das Problem?

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.292.100 von meinolf67 am 02.01.09 14:19:34Es geht dabei eigentlich nicht nur um Vale. Es würde mich nur interessieren, ob es eine empfehlenswerte Homepage gibt, die die Finanzkalender möglichst internationaler Aktien geeignet zusammengefaßt anbietet.

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.292.646 von DiegoDiggler am 02.01.09 15:49:36Könntest es mal bei Yahoo versuchen:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/

Weiß allerdings nicht, ob man dort auch mehr als einen Tag auf einmal sehen kann.

Und sind natürlich nur in USA gehandelte Werte.

Vale, Baosteel cancel steel project amid downturn

The slowing global economy has prompted Brazil's largest miner and China's second-biggest steelmaker to cancel plans for a $5 billion steel slab plant in southern Brazil, costing thousands of jobs, the Brazilian miner said Friday.

By ALAN CLENDENNING

AP Business Writer
SAO PAULO, Brazil —

The slowing global economy has prompted Brazil's largest miner and China's second-biggest steelmaker to cancel plans for a $5 billion steel slab plant in southern Brazil, costing thousands of jobs, the Brazilian miner said Friday.

A statement from Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA said the economic crisis and unspecified "scenarios" needed to invest in building the plant had changed.

The decision followed intense negotiations with Shanghai-based Baosteel Group Co., which had proposed that the project be ended, Vale added. It declined to give further details.

Vale, the world's largest producer of iron ore, the raw ingredient for steel, had planned to invest $1 billion in the joint venture, while Baosteel was to invest $4 billion.

The plant would have produced 5 million metric tons of steel for export a year, creating 3,000 jobs in Brazil's southeastern Espirito Santo state, Vale's statement said.

Steel prices have dropped since the world economic crisis hit in October, slashing demand for steel exports in once-booming economies including China, India and the U.S. China's construction boom had sent many Chinese companies to buy metals and other natural resources in Latin America.

Vale, based in Rio de Janeiro, said it intends to keep developing new steel plants in Brazil, and to stay committed to "the strengthening of the steel sector."

U.S.-traded shares of Vale rose 2 percent to $12.85 on the New York Stock Exchange after the announcement.

Vale invested US$ 10.2 billion in 2008

Rio de Janeiro, January 21, 2009 - Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (Vale) invested a record US$ 10.169 billion in 2008, excluding acquisitions. This figure represents a 33% increase over the US$ 7.625 billion spent in 2007.

Investment in organic growth was US$ 7.497 billion, out of which US$ 6.454 billion was dedicated to project execution and US$ 1.044 billion to research and development (R&D). US$ 2.672 billion accounted for stay-in-business capex.

Corporate social responsibility is a key strategic commitment and our investments in 2008 amounted to US$ 909 million, being US$ 231 million in social projects and US$ 678 million in environmental protection.

In the last quarter of 2008, investments totaled US$ 3.444 billion, with US$ 2.372 billion allocated to projects and R&D and US$ 1.072 billion to the maintenance of our operations.

Growth and value creation

Over the last five years, Vale's commitment to execute its long-term growth strategy was translated into a total investment of US$ 49.0 billion, including US$ 28.8 billion in the development of a diverse pipeline of world-class projects, R&D and improvement and maintenance of the existing operations. US$ 20.3 billion was invested in strategic and value creating acquisitions, allowing us to become a global leading nickel producer and to enter into the coal business.

Compared to the previous five-year period, 1999-2003, when capital expenditure, excluding acquisitions, reached US$ 4.0 billion, Vale's investments in 2004-2008 were 7.2 times higher. If we add expenditures with acquisitions total investment during 1999-2003 was US$ 6.4 billion.

The investment made by Vale was supported by rigorous discipline on capital allocation and fueled a vigorous growth process coupled with the globalization of our activities and diversification of our asset portfolio, creating substantial value for our shareholders. Our aggregate production grew at a compounded annual rate of 11.2% from 2004 to 2008 and Vale became the second largest metals and mining company in the world by market capitalization.

Simultaneously, Vale's dynamic investment spending created multiple opportunities for social and economic upward mobility, contributing to a rising level of well-being in the communities where we operate around the globe. The number of our employees rose by 100.9%, increasing to 62,490 in December 2008 from 31,109 in December 2003. In Brazil, Vale hired 16,148 new employees during this period.

Brazil has absorbed the main portion of Vale's investment, US$ 20.8 billion, representing 72.2% of its organic growth capex of US$ 28.8 billion.

Given a powerful cash generation and a low-risk debt portfolio we have been able to develop projects supported by a decision-making process based on the merits of each growth opportunity not constrained by short-term cash restrictions.

In the past five years, Vale delivered 26 major world-class projects in several different segments of the metals and mining industry, providing new value-creating platforms. Eight of them were completed in 2008: (a) Fazendão iron ore mine, in Minas Gerais, Brazil; (b) Samarco III pellet plant, in Espírito Santo, Brazil; (c) Zhuhai pellet plant, China; (d) Northern Corridor logistics project, Pará and Maranhão, Brazil; (e) Dalian nickel plant, China; (f) UHC copper plant, Pará, Brazil; (g) Paragominas II bauxite mine expansion, Pará, Brazil; and (h) 6 & 7 stages of the Alunorte alumina refinery, Pará, Brazil.

Investment in 2008

TOTAL INVESTMENT[1] - US$ million












By category 4Q08 2008 2007
Organic growth 2,372 68.9% 7,497 73.7% 5,423 71.1%
Projects 2,070 60.1% 6,454 63.4% 4,682 61.4%
R&D 302 8.8% 1,044 10.2% 741 9.7%
Stay-in-business 1,072 31.1% 2,672 26.3% 2,202 28.9%
Total 3,444 100.0% 10,169 100.0% 7,625 100.0%
Acquisitions - - 128 - 3,379 -
Total including acquisitions 3,444 - 10,297 - 11,004 -
Divestitures - - 130 - 1,041 -


In 2008, we invested US$ 4.595 billion in the non-ferrous minerals business, US$ 2.168 billion in ferrous minerals, US$ 1.952 billion in logistics, US$ 392 million in coal, US$ 406 million in power generation and US$ 146 million in steel projects.

Investments in R&D involved US$ 436 million spent in our global mineral exploration program, US$ 502 million in conceptual, pre-feasibility and feasibility studies, and US$ 105 million in technological innovations and adaptation of new technologies. The non-ferrous mineral business accounted for 50% of the total R&D investments, ferrous minerals 20%, logistics 10%, coal 6%, power generation 14% and others 1%.

Simultaneously to other initiatives, we invested US$ 116 million in 2008 in natural gas exploration to pursue the diversification of our energy matrix to mitigate risks and reduce costs of energy consumption. The investments involved the participation in consortia to explore gas deposits in the Brazilian sedimentary basin.

Acquisitions and divestitures

In 2008, we invested US$ 128 million to purchase of iron ore mining rights, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, which were incorporated into the iron ore project Apolo.

Pursuant to our corporate strategy and positive long-term view on the fundamentals of the copper and coal businesses, we announced two important acquisitions in December 2008.

The first was an agreement to acquire a 50% interest in a joint venture company which will own TEAL Exploration & Mining Incorporated (TEAL) subsidiaries assets in the African copperbelt. The deal with African Rainbow Minerals Limited (ARM) and its 65%-owned subsidiary TEAL amounted to CAD$ 81 million, and aims to enhance Vale's strategic growth options in the copper business in Africa.

The second was the acquisition of 100% of the export coal assets of Cementos Argos S.A. (Argos) in Colombia for US$ 300 million, which consist of two mining concessions: (a) El Hatillo, with an expected production of 1.8 million metric tons of thermal coal in 2008 and ramping up to full capacity of 4.5 million metric tons per year by 2011, and (b) Cerro Largo, under exploration stage. Together these mining concessions have potential for 500 million metric tons of non-audited geological resources.

In 1Q08, we sold for US$ 130 million our minority stake in Jubilee Mines, an Australian nickel producer.
TOTAL INVESTMENT - US$ million












by business area 4Q08 % 2008 % 2007 %
Ferrous minerals 674 19.6 2,168 21.3 1,748 22.9
Non-ferrous minerals 1,231 35.7 4,595 45.2 3,988 52.3
Logistics 891 25.9 1,952 19.2 977 12.8
Coal 211 6.1 392 3.9 169 2.2
Power generation 130 3.8 406 4.0 165 2.2
Steel 73 2.1 146 1.4 279 3.7
Others 234 6.8 510 5.0 298 3.9
Total 3,444 100.0 10,169 100.0 7,625 100.0


For further information, please contact:

+55-21-3814-4540

Roberto Castello Branco: roberto.castello.branco@vale.com

Alessandra Gadelha: alessandra.gadelha@vale.com

Marcus Thieme: marcus.thieme@vale.com

Patricia Calazans: patricia.calazans@vale.com

Roberta Coutinho: roberta.coutinho@vale.com

Theo Penedo: theo.penedo@vale.com

Tacio Neto: tacio.neto@vale.com

This press release may include declarations that present Vale's expectations in relation to future events or results. All declarations, when based upon future expectations and not on historical facts involve various risks and uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such declarations will come to be correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) countries where we operate, mainly Brazil and Canada; (b) global economy; (c) capital markets; (d) iron ore and nickel businesses and their dependence upon the global steel industry, which is cyclical by nature; (e) high degree of global competition in the markets which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may give origin to results different from those forecasted by Vale, please consult the reports filed with the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the most recent Annual Report - Vale Form 20F and 6K forms.

[1] These values correspond to financial disbursement and are not necessarily equal to accounting numbers. Value for 2008 acquisitions does not include the acquisitions announced in December 2008 as they were not paid in 2008.

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wieder mal günstig zu haben, Gerdau sogar noch günstiger. Bei beiden werd ich jetzt bald mal nachlegen