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    LYNAS - auf dem Weg zu einem Rohstoffproduzent von Hightech-Rohstoffen (Seite 2606)

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      schrieb am 23.09.12 16:45:42
      Beitrag Nr. 31.565 ()
      Sonnige Aussichten fuer REE's

      Crystal Balls and the Rare Earths Future (2017 and 2022)

      Posted on September 12, 2012 by Steve Mackowski

      As we humans tend to celebrate great occasions, in this case the launching of ProEdgeWire, it has been fashionable to deposit time capsules so that future generations can look back in time and see how backward civilisations were from a future point of view. I would like to take a different approach. Why don’t we try to predict the future? Not too far however. We can leave Avatar Mining Limited to Hollywood. But far enough to represent a challenge. A challenge for you too! Let’s shoot for 5 years and 10. That’s 2017 and 2022. What will the rare earth oxide (REO) world look like?

      To assist your thinking it may be helpful, although probably a little guiding, to look at prices as these will surely influence demand. Or perhaps not, as the table below has been prepared by the staff of Metal-Pages and BCC Research with their views of the future firmly in mind. You have to consider in this new technology age, does price expectation influence demand? That is, would someone research new uses of REO(x) if the future price expectation was considered to be prohibitive? Or would the new technology be so beneficial and cost effective that it may drive a new REO projection? Look at dysprosium. 10 years ago it was just a position on the periodic table (worth <$10/kg) until a researcher discovered how it enhances the magnets that we have come to depend upon. Research identified opportunity which drove commercialisation which drove price. I digress, but just a little to keep your mind focussed.

      Before we think what it may be like, it is proper to set the scene a little by defining what it won’t be like. It is almost certain that miniaturisation of nuclear devices won’t be around. This means that our need for efficient transportation won’t be far advanced from our magnet-centric technologies. So neodymium should be in good demand. This will drive the imbalance of REO output at the light end of the REO spectrum towards an over-production of neodymium. This should result in an over-supply of the other light REOs, particularly cerium and lanthanum (and samarium which I will come to later). This appears to be behind the BCC prediction for light rare earth oxide (LREO). That is, this would occur if some new significant volume for cerium and lanthanum was not developed.

      So Prediction one. The Molycorp use of cerium for environmental clean-up of contaminated effluents, be they gaseous or liquid seems like a likely opportunity. The use of lanthanum for similar purposes was developed and trialled 10 years ago, also, maybe a similar application is looming. Maybe the use of cerium in architectural glass will expand in volume as people take heed of its ability to block UV light, as is deployed in the glass of Lexus vehicles. No more fading of curtains and carpets!! There is also a branch of research work looking at the use of ceric compounds as corrosion inhibitors and such like replacing the need for chromium and other more undesirable cations or compounds. What is likely to result?

      Let’s look at these expanded environmental uses of cerium and lanthanum as a further development of their current catalyst ability and function. Added to the current uses (and growth), the volume of use could possibly match the increase in use of neodymium. So the price doesn’t go down to rock bottom levels (BCC model), but since the cerium and lanthanum are still in a commodity role competing with other technologies capable of achieving similar results, the price will be tolerable. Closer to the Metal-Pages prediction in the 5 year time scale, but in 10 years? That will all depend on how many light REO players get finance, environmental approvals, success in chemistry development and good old fashioned desire and hard work to get those projects post Molycorp, Lynas and Great Western off the ground. So let’s predict a long term price for cerium and lanthanum to stay on the historic trend line and shoot for $18 in 5 years and perhaps $10 in 2022 as the supply volume accelerates.

      Then there is the issue of samarium. It is moving to significant over supply with resultant price drop. However, logic would therefore suggest that samarium is ripe for development in a new field since its long term price expectation is low. Prediction two, look for some encouraging science in samarium by 2017 with supply being used up in 2022 taking the price of samarium to good levels.

      This all sounds very bullish for the LREO space. But remember too much production too early will drop all prices, except perhaps, neodymium. Prolonged project development time or new market development time may throw my estimates out by a half a decade! Forgot europium. As all this new production comes on stream, the increasing demands for phosphors will still outpace supply and prices will rise. Wait for the future impact of phosphorescent paint (2022)!

      What about the heavy rare earth oxide (HREO) space? Will the high prices for dysprosium deter its use in hi-tech and green energy applications? I think not, but supply and demand will play a major factor. The current annual world supply/demand of dysprosium is 1,300 tonnes with longer term demand estimated to possibly double by the 2016-2022 time frame. Supply, however, is currently only out of China. The development of rest of world (ROW) dysprosium projects will be the obvious determinant, but if the users of dysprosium all move their technologies away from dysprosium then there are no financial drivers for developers to bring dysprosium projects on stream.

      Before Prediction three, it is important to view the composition of the ROW HREO demand drivers. That is who will be wanting dysprosium. Currently a dozen car companies, half a dozen wind turbine companies and two or three rail companies want approximately 100-200 tonnes per year of dysprosium to meet their development aspirations. If you look at those HREO projects with the potential to come on stream by 2015 (zero!) and onwards towards 2022, it is hoped that all 5 or 6 will come on line. Expected output cannot be more than 2,000 tonnes in total. Add the minor amounts that will be co-produced by the LREO players and the supply of dysprosium comes up short. The result is a price increase. How high is difficult to say but is really only academic.

      Will there be a transparent market place for dysprosium in the medium to long term is a better question? Prediction three. All HREO projects that come on-line in the next 10 years will have their dysprosium output heavily committed in off-take/financing arrangements so that there will be little free market dysprosium other than small amounts from the lesser LREO by-product volumes (or illegal!). I have already discussed that there is insufficient supply to meet demand, so will the world not develop hybrid vehicles and wind turbines to the extent we all desire? No they will develop, and I’ll come to that later. Back to dysprosium supply/demand. Because of the limited supply of dysprosium, only those hi-tech and green energy end users that want to be seen as leading edge and want to dominate that space will place their faith, future and fortunes into dysprosium-centric permanent magnets. So only the top few auto companies, a very select couple of wind turbine companies and rail companies will have the hi-tech and green energy advantage of dysprosium-centric permanent magnets in their drive systems. So what of the others?

      REO distribution dictates that as the supply of dysprosium goes up, the supply of terbium goes up also. Currently the poor cousin to dysprosium, terbium — Prediction three, is that terbium will increase its use in permanent magnets fulfilling the supply shortage in dysprosium. So the price of dysprosium goes up (although not transparent since tied to off-take/finance arrangements) but not too high perhaps $1,500/kg equivalent and the price of terbium also goes up, perhaps to $2,500 as demand goes up. Recent enhancements in magnet furnace technology that results in dysprosium (or terbium) migration to the crystal edges will further entrench the use of dysprosium (and terbium) in permanent magnet applications since usage goes down some and the price escalations that are predicted as supply becomes limited have less effect.

      Other HREO directions? Yttrium supply is also very reliant upon HREO projects getting up in the next decade. Yttrium has strong growth in its own market so will drive prices up due to demand increase, but should dysprosium projects dally, then yttrium will escalate. The combination of exciting futures for dysprosium, terbium and yttrium will see an expanding number of new arrivals to the current short list of HREO projects under serious development.

      Dark horses!

      Gadolinium. REO based refrigeration is a use that has been studied for a while. Its time is due. Maybe not on a large scale by 2017 but by 2022, almost a certainty.

      Lutetium has a current use in medical receptor technology. Advances in new devices and expansion in the numbers of devices will see an expanding future.

      Long shot!

      All the HREO have a bright future, except erbium. It is going into over-supply as the HREO development cycle swings through. The price is dropping rapidly – a very good material upon which to base new science, new applications and yet another REO supply/demand balance to keep us all awake nights trying to work them out, predict them and hopefully profit from them.

      It is now your time to imagine where the REO world is going in 2017 and beyond. Enjoy the ride because the sleepless nights may get you down!

      @
      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.09.12 16:41:24
      Beitrag Nr. 31.564 ()
      Wer sich fuer REE's interessiert, der/die kann sich mal hier im REE Handbuch schlau machen


      @
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.09.12 14:25:57
      Beitrag Nr. 31.563 ()
      Okay.
      Vielen Dank für die Antworten.
      Konzeptionell sehen wir also wie beim Mondflug einen mehrstufigen Approach mit Towerfree Ende Oktober.
      Auch die makroökonomische Situation, in die alle Firmen (und unsere deutschen Arbeitsplätze mit Spitzenposition im weltweiten Wohlstand) eingebettet sind, bleibt hochvolatil.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.09.12 14:11:09
      Beitrag Nr. 31.562 ()
      ich glaube nicht, dass lynas alle ree's produzieren kann/will, denn das lamp ist - soweit ich weiss - auf die lynas eigene, verfuegbare resource gebaut worden. und, warum sollte man ree's produzieren, die der markt nicht in ausreichenden mengen braucht, bzw. nicht gewinnbringend produziert werden koennen. zumal hat lynas die gesamte jahresproduktion der phase 1 auf jahre hinaus bereits verkauft und die kaeufer werden im vorfeld gesagt haben, welche ree's gebraucht werden, wann diese gebraucht werden und in welchen mengen geliefert werden muss. somit ist die lamp phase 1 eine massgeschneiderte produktionsanlage, auf die beduerfnisse der kunden zugeschnitten. fuer phase 2 gilt aehnliches. wer weiss ob bei phase 3 etwas andere prioritaeten haben wird. und nicht zu vergessen ist duncan's hree, welches entweder in phase 4 oder in einer neuen lamp 2 produzieren wird.

      man sollte auch bedenken, dass der produktionsprozess bis zu 80 unterschiedliche "behandlungen" des ore's benoetigt und die zeit, nachdem man vorne was in die roehren reingeschauffelt hat und hinten etwas sinnvolles rauskommt, kann bis zu 40 tage dauern.
      wenn man weiterhin beruecksichtigt, dass nick von einem produktionsstart in okt ausgeht, dann kann man mit den ersten kundenlieferungen fruehestens mitte nov, spaetestens mitte dez/ende dez rechnen.

      geld wird dann in jan 2013 reinkommen und positiver cash-flow im q1 2013, auch bereits von nick gesagt.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.09.12 13:35:29
      Beitrag Nr. 31.561 ()
      Zitat von Les_terres_rares: Zusammenfassung Punkt 2:
      Die LAMP hat in der ersten Ausbaustufe anscheinend nicht die Fähigkeit alle Elemete der REE zu separieren.
      Frage 2: Wenn der chemische Prozess solche Lücken hat wieso ist dann garantiert, dass die Produkte der ersten Ausbaustufe den Anforderungen der Kunden genügt bzgl. verfügbarer Mengen und Reinheit genügen
      .


      Das Verfahren hat keine Lücken, es ist eher so, dass weitere/andere Prozesse für die Separation der weiteren Elemente nötig sind, so hab ich das jedenfalls verstanden.

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      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.09.12 13:17:59
      Beitrag Nr. 31.560 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.635.742 von Les_terres_rares am 23.09.12 12:55:30ZU Punkt 3
      Wer ist den eigentlich Marktführer ? wohl einer der Chinesen oder ... hoffe mal das die den Preis wie schon im Solarsektor NICHT kaputt machen ... ich dachte immer der Chinese wäre schlau, seit dem Solardesaster habe ich über das Volk eine andere Meinung ... :rolleyes:
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.09.12 12:55:30
      Beitrag Nr. 31.559 ()
      Zusammenfassung Punkt1:
      Bis Ende Oktober wird davon ausgegangen, dass mit der Produtkion in der Lamp begonnen wird.

      Frage 1:
      Wann ist mit einer marktfähigen Ware zu rechnen? Ich kenne mich leider nur mit PGMs aus - Da dauert bei Anglo Platinum in einer eingefahrenen Anlage 26 Tage bis das Rhodium Sponge vorliegt.

      Zusammenfassung Punkt 2:
      Die LAMP hat in der ersten Ausbaustufe anscheinend nicht die Fähigkeit alle Elemete der REE zu separieren.
      Frage 2: Wenn der chemische Prozess solche Lücken hat wieso ist dann garantiert, dass die Produkte der ersten Ausbaustufe den Anforderungen der Kunden genügt bzgl. verfügbarer Mengen und Reinheit genügen

      Zusammenfassung 3:
      Der Basketpreis ist nicht weit vom Break Even entfernt.
      Frage 3: Bei den geringen Mengen und der limitierten Zahl der Elemente ist doch nicht zu erwarten, dass das EBITDA erwirtschaftet wird. Vor allem durch den Eintritt eines Juniorplayers (eines Hungerleiders) in den monopolistischen Markt wird der Marktführer die Preise massiv senken und wir haben zusätzliche noch eine kleine Weltwirtschaftskrise.

      ==> Kurs geht Richtung 50 Euro Cent. Das setzen auf einen Newcomer bringt nichts. Spiele bei Aktien nur die Marktführer alles andere ist wie ein Hole-In-One.
      2 Antworten?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.09.12 12:04:42
      Beitrag Nr. 31.558 ()
      Lynas: Rare earth waste safe, exported due to ‘unnecessary’ fear

      By Ida Lim
      September 19, 2012

      Lynas said the residue from its Gebeng facility also has commercial applications in Malaysia.

      KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 19 ― Residues produced in refining rare earth at Lynas Corp’s controversial Kuantan plant is “safe” and has wide commercial uses, but will still be exported out of Malaysia due to “unnecessary” public fear, says the Australian miner.

      The residues, also known as co-products, do not fall under the category of “radioactive waste”, Lynas told The Malaysian Insider, adding it can be recycled and need not be sent back to Australia under conditions in its licence.

      “There has been a serious campaign of misinformation about the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) with the consequence of causing unnecessary fear and public anxiety,” said a spokesperson for Lynas.

      “Consequently, Lynas has voluntarily undertaken to export the co-products of the LAMP, despite them being safe, usable materials which have a market demand in Malaysia,” she told The Malaysian Insider.



      interessant dabei ist, dass die tol erst dann ausgehaendigt wurde, NACHDEM lynas ein "freiwilliges" commitment mit der aelb vereinbarte, welches natuerlich NICHT bestandteil der tol ist, alle produktionsnebenprodukte ausser landes zu bringen. gleichgueltig ob diese vollkommen ungefaehrlich sind und sehr aehnliche by-products alltaeglich in malaysia fuer vielerlei zwecke genutzt werden.

      lynas wird auf jahre, wenn nicht sogar jahrzehnte erpressbar bleiben!

      Malaysia’s Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) recently issued a two-year temporary operating licence (TOL) to Lynas despite widespread protests, but said the Australian miner was legally bound to remove residues from its RM2.5 billion plant.

      However, Lynas repeated its long-standing assertion that “safe, valuable and sustainable” co-products from the refinery have a “broad range of commercial applications” including as building material, fertiliser, and durable road base.

      It explained that the Kuantan plant “will produce three solid residues” that “will be recycled for commercial use as synthetic gypsum, magnesium-rich synthetic gypsum and synthetic aggregate”.

      After further processing the recycled solid residues, the co-products that can be safely used for commercial purposes will be produced, it said.

      Lynas said these three co-products “are not classified as dangerous goods under international transport standards, nor are they classified as ‘radioactive waste.’”

      It said that this was due to the co-products’ low levels of “normally occurring radioactive material” (NORM) ― a common feature of many products such as bitumen, a material often used to make roads.

      “Each co-product will undergo chemical analysis and international customs certification prior to export from Malaysia, which is another community and environmental health safeguard. This is standard international industrial practice,” it added.

      Last Friday, an Australian diplomat told The Malaysian Insider that Lynas had applied to “import material” to Australia, despite Canberra’s policy of rejecting radioactive waste.

      But Lynas clarified that the reported application is actually an “old application” that has been “placed on hold”.

      “The development of commercial solutions for processed co-products from the LAMP means Lynas was able to place on hold a previous application to the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA) to import co-products into Australia,” it said.

      On Monday, local environmental groups had demanded that Lynas show a detailed waste management plan or risk a “fight to the end”.

      The TOL Lynas received two weeks ago from Malaysian authorities has paved the way for its rare earth plant to begin operations despite widespread public protests over safety and environmental concerns.

      Lynas said that it would begin transporting and completing all steps to prepare enriching the rare earth ore mined in Australia by October.

      The TOL allows Lynas to operate for a period of two years beginning September 3. The company has said it will employ some 300 people for the facility, which has received a 12-year tax holiday.

      The AELB had emphasised that Lynas must adhere to all requirements and conditions imposed by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation through the Atomic Energy Licensing Act.

      Two weeks ago, five Kuantan residents were given the Kuantan High Court’s nod to challenge the science, technology and innovation minister’s decision to award a TOL to the Australian miner.

      Last week, Stop Lynas Coalition failed in its bid to get leave from the Court of Appeal for a separate judicial review of AELB’s decision to grant a TOL to Lynas.

      link
      Avatar
      schrieb am 22.09.12 22:15:40
      Beitrag Nr. 31.557 ()
      Zitat von Les_terres_rares: Hat einer von Euch einen guten Draht zu Herrn Curtis?
      Vielleicht könnten wir ein paar Internetkameras installieren lassen.
      Dann hätte man die Möglichkeit zu sehen ob in der Firma irgendwo einer arbeitet.
      Auja,
      Bierkasten an die Seite, Zigarre in Mund, Füße hoch und anfeuern : "Lauft, ihr faulen Säcke !"
      Avatar
      schrieb am 22.09.12 20:34:38
      Beitrag Nr. 31.556 ()
      Hat einer von Euch einen guten Draht zu Herrn Curtis?
      Vielleicht könnten wir ein paar Internetkameras installieren lassen.
      Dann hätte man die Möglichkeit zu sehen ob in der Firma irgendwo einer arbeitet.
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      LYNAS - auf dem Weg zu einem Rohstoffproduzent von Hightech-Rohstoffen