HOME DEPOT INC.

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
Der MACD ist negativ und liegt unter seiner Signallinie. Diese Konstellation verschlechtert die Aussichten für das Papier.Aber der RSI ist überverkauft, es besteht also die Möglichkeit einer Konsolidierung.Die Stochastiken sind extrem niedrig, sie liegen unter 20.Die gehandelten Volumen liegen über dem Durchschnitt der Volumen der letzten 10 Tage.

BEWEGUNGEN UND AKTIENSTÄNDE
Das Papier erlebt eine Baisse. Es liegt unter seinem beweglichen Durchschnitt über 50 Tage von 39,52 USD. Der bewegliche Durchschnitt über 20 Tage (niedriger als der bewegliche Durchschnitt über 50 Tage) hält die Kurse mittelfristig unter Verkaufsdruck. Unsere erste Unterstützungslinie liegt bei 35 USD, die nächste bei 34,3 USD - die Widerstandslinie bei 38,52 USD und 39,23 USD müssen durchbrochen werden, um den Trend umzukehren.

http://www.fimatex.de/conseils/detail_conseils.phtml?&news=4…

http://www.homedepot.com/prel80/HDUS/EN_US/pg_index.jsp?CNTT…

zu HD:

Fraglos eine der größten Wachstumsfirmen der Geschichte! Und lasst Euch nicht von deren Chart täuschen, Umsatz und Gewinn sind auch seit 2000 stetig weitergewachsen.

Umsatz seit 1994 (Gewinne meist 4-6 %-Punkte mehr): 35%/24%/26%/24%/25%/27%/19%/17%/9%/11%/13%/12%/11%

Wachstumsraten klar runtergekommen. Ich denke, das größte Wachstum liegt sicher hinter ihnen.
Selbst wenn sie Filialdichte in USA noch erhöhen können und in Mexiko, Brasilien, evtl. Indien/China die führende Kette werden sollten , kann ich mir langfristig bestenfalls eine weitere Verfünf- bis Verzehnfachung ihrer Gewinne vorstellen. Ob dieses Szenario allerdings realistisch ist?
Andererseits kann ihnen schlechtestenfalls auch nicht viel passieren. Ich denke, HD ist auf heutigem Entwicklungsstand in jeden Fall ein sicherer stetiger Wachstumswert mit Wachstums-Raten um 8-12%, aber keine großer Wachstumsbringer mehr. KGV ist historisch günstig. Durch Versandhandel/Internethandel halte ich sie nicht für gefährdet (anders als andere Retailer, z.B. WAG).


Rein von den Zahlen her wäre LOW die bessere Wahl. Seit 2000 liegen die bei Umsatz- und Gewinnwachstum meist so 2-3 Prozentpunkte vor HD.

HD hat 2200 Filialen ggü. LOW mit 1400.
Umsatz in 2006 war bei HD 90 Mrd $ ggü. LOW mit 46 Mrd$.

Umsatzwachstum bei HD: 58,2 Mrd (Jahr 2002) auf 90,8 Mrd (2006) = 9,3% p.a.
bei LOW: 26,1Mrd (2002) auf 46,9 Mrd (2006) = 12,4% p.a.

EK-Renditen, Margen, KGV, EK-Quoten sind alle vergleichbar. DivRendite bei HD 2,5% vs 1% bei LOW.


Was mich beeindruckt: 2002 hätte man sicher denken können, beide Ketten seien mit 50 bzw 26 Mrd Umsatz langsam der Wachstumsgrenze nahe, und dennoch ging das Wachstum in gutem Tempo weiter. Bei beiden annähernd Umsatzverdopplung binnen 5 Jahren!!!
Also sind vielleicht erneut +70% in den kommenden 5 Jahren möglich, auch wenn das heute schwierig erreichbar erscheint.

und zum Vergleich auch noch die deutsche Hornbach:

Umsatzwachstum seit 1997: 12%/15%/9%/15%/13%/10%/15%/20%/8%/7%

Die Umsätze steigen recht schön, aber das Management hat es nicht geschafft, die steigenden Umsätze in steigende Gewinne umzusetzen.
Der Jahresüberschuss von 32Mio in 2006 ist auf dem Niveau von 1997 mit damals 39Mio.

Sieht für mich danach aus, dass deutsche Manager nicht so gut sind wie die US-Manager oder aber dass die Rahmenbedingungen in D ungleich schwieriger sind als dort. Beides Gründe, die für ein US-Investment sprechen.

Und auch wenns um die Expansion in die neuen Wachstumsmärkte China + Indien geht hat eine Firma wie HD mit 4500Mio Euro Jahresgewinn eine ganz andere Durchhaltekraft als eine Kingfisher mit 300 Mio Euro oder eine Hornbach mit 30Mio Euro!

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.945.819 von Simonswald am 11.10.07 20:23:55Simonswald, danke für Deine Einschätzung,

ja, HD hat 2007 schon mächtig zu kämpfen, die Gewinne düften das erste mal zurückgehen in der langen Firmengeschichte. Di Divi steigt aber trotzdem, gestern ne meldung, dass sie die Aktienrückkäufe erst mal stoppen wollen (s.u.), zeigte aber keinerlei Wirkungen im Kurs. Also wenn ich mir die Kurve so anschaue und die kennzahlen mit über 3% Divi (die stetig um 29% pro Jahr stieg in den letzten 10 jahren) nem 2008er KGV von 12 (steigt an), dann denke ich trotzdem, dass die Aktie ziemlich ausgebombt ist.

oder würdest Du aktuell WMT vorziehen? Die haben ja gerade rel. gute zahlen geliefert, auch HD profitierte von dem WMT-Kurssprung.

Mich würde noch mal Deine aktuelle Einschätzung interessieren. Ich könnte mir gut vorstllen ein paar Teile ins (Home) DEpot zu nehmen...

Gruss space



Home Depot abandons $10bn share buyback to conserve cash
Suzy Jagger in New York

Home Depot, America’s biggest DIY retailer, withdrew plans for a $10 billion (£4.8 billion) share buyback programme yesterday in an attempt to conserve cash in a deteriorating housing market.

The group said that it would not be “prudent” in present market conditions to complete the last half of the buyback programme as it said that third-quarter profits had fallen 27 per cent. Home Depot also said that it had not been “pessimistic enough” about the slide in America’s housing market and expected earnings to deteriorate further over the year.

America is experiencing its most severe property recession for 16 years. Home Depot’s bleak outlook came as statistics showed that consumer confidence had fallen to a new two-year low as shoppers were weighed down by worries about the housing market and surging oil prices. According to the TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence index, the key confidence measure dived to 43.8 in November from October’s 47.3. This month’s reading was the third-lowest in the seven-year history of the series and ranked after those of September and October 2005 in the aftermath of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Raghavan Mayur, a TMI spokesman, said: “Americans are spooked about the future. High fuel prices, rising retail prices and the mortgage crisis are also to blame.”
Related Links

* Home Depot forced into $2bn price cut

* Debt fears cut $2bn from Home Depot sale

* Home Depot warns on US housing turmoil

There are concerns that the troubles in the housing market, which have resulted in credit-related losses and huge job cuts by American banks, will spill over and limit consumers’ ability to spend.

For the year as a whole, Home Depot predicted a decline of as much as 11 per cent in earnings per share because of persistent “softness in the housing market”.

Frank Blake, the company’s chairman and chief executive, said yesterday: “We started the year with a more pessimistic view of the housing and home improvement markets than many. It turns out we were not pessimistic enough.”

Home Depot said that it had earned $1.09 billion in the three months ending on October 28, compared with a profit of $1.49 billion for the same period a year ago. The company had expected “some market improvement” by the third quarter but that did not happen, Mr Blake said.

Blaming volatility in the credit markets and “challenging” housing and home improvement markets, the company said that it would not “execute the remainder” of its share buyback programme, of which about $10 billion has yet to be completed. Mr Blake added: “We expect continued difficult conditions for the remainder of 2007 and expect that the soft market will continue, as reflected in the current overhang of housing inventory and the difficulties in the subprime mortgage market.”

Shares on a buoyant Wall Street rose 66 cents to close at $29.12. Their value has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year, however, when they reached more than $40.

Home Depot: Bye Bye Buyback
posted on: November 15, 2007 | about stocks: HD / LOW

That did not take long. Anyone care to wager that Home Depot (HD)'s doomed share repurchase plan is not completed next year either?

Aside from suspending the buyback plans, they also said the recapitalization plan under which they planned to buy back $22.5 billion in stock would not be completed this year. Under that plan, the company bought back about 290 million common shares for $10.7 billion earlier this year in a tender offer. Most of those repurchases were done with the proceeds from the Supply sale. In August I joked that HD would end up with a $12 billion plan. It looks like even I was too optimistic.

Do not be fooled into thinking HD will complete this anytime soon. The ingredients necessary for it to happen; improved credit markets, improved business environment and improved business fundamentals are at least a year away. Don't believe me? Blake said it himself on the call "We expect continued difficult conditions for the remainder of 2007 and into 2008." That takes us to 2008 at the earliest before we can even consider more repurchases of anything other than a token amount. I would bet we do not see any additional ones this decade.

How did the sale of supply end up? Carol Thome said "Earnings for our discontinued operation, HD Supply, were $20 million. Included in this quarter’s results are the net after tax financial results for the month of August, as well as the impact of the sale of HD Supply. After expenses and taxes, we recognized a $4 million loss on the sale of the business."

Regarding the repurchase plan and buyback Thome said "We will move forward when we see improvement in both the home improvement and credit market, which we believe will not occur until some time in 2008."

During the conference call, CEO Frank Blake said they continued to lose overall home improvement market share, but at a lower rate compared with the year earlier. Of all the news this is the worst because it means that Home Depot, as a company, is doing worse than its competitors.

Home Depot's problems are so deep, it will be bad for a while. If you must invest in this sector, go with Lowe's (LOW).

schöner Bericht zu HD:


Home Depot Unusually Inexpensive Right Now
posted on: January 30, 2008 | about stocks: HD
Print Email

The Home Depot (HD) seems poised to break out of its recent disappointing stock performance. When you look at what the market has historically been willing to pay for HD it is selling at a noticeable discount. For example, Home Depot’s price-to-cash-flow currently is about 8.27, which is well below its historical range of 11.07-18.19. The current price-to-sales ratio is a similarly low with HD trading at .73, whereas its normal historical range is .90-1.46. Both of these valuation measures suggest that HD is unusually inexpensive right now.

The real concern dogging retail stocks at present is that consumer spending will slow dramatically, adversely affecting retailer’s bottom-lines. However, there is no guarantee that the economy is headed for a recession and even with a slight decrease in consumer spending, Home Depot is well positioned to weather the storm. For one thing, Home Depot is a huge and diversified retailer. One of Home Depot’s biggest customers-- home builders--have slowed their production greatly. However, this business will not be down forever and many do-it-yourselfers [DIY] may opt to spend more money on home improvement projects, with the housing market in stasis for the foreseeable future. The DIY market is HD’s bread and butter and an area of increased focus for the company. HD’s 25% return-on-equity [ROE], which has been rising for the last six years, demonstrates that the company is led by an exceptional management team well able to adjust to an evolving marketplace. It may surprise you to know that while the rest of the stock market has been pummeled so far in 2008, Home Depot stock has increased 16% year-to-date.

It is easy to see that HD is cheap right now with a P/E multiple of just 12.05. Ockham had a “buy” rating on the stock at more expensive price levels. Although the market correction may not be over, HD stock appears very attractive at its current price level for long-term investors. Given current earnings expectations for the company, we would expect to see HD trading in the range of $37 to $61 a share in a more positive stock price environment.

und noch eine schöne Analyse:

Home Depot's Been Hammered Too Hard


By Nicholas Yulico
Senior Writer
1/30/2008 6:12 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Nicholas Yulico
Try Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
CLICK HERE NOW

Editor's note: "Bricks and Mortar" is a mock portfolio created by reporter Nicholas Yulico that is meant to help generate real estate and gaming-related stock ideas. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, Yulico doesn't own or short individual stocks.



Trading Center

Fidelity Investments
Scottrade

TradeStation
E*TRADE FINANCIAL

Charles Schwab
Bank of America

The housing market, no doubt about it, stinks. Government data on Monday showed that new-home sales in 2007 were the lowest on record.

Nonetheless, homebuilders stocks have been surging in recent weeks as investors bet that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this week will save builders and the housing market.

But I wouldn't jump into buying the homebuilders just yet, since their fundamentals are still deteriorating. Even though the stock is near five-month highs, I continue to flag Ryland (RYL - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) as overvalued in the "Bricks and Mortar" mock portfolio.

For those who want to snap up a beaten-down stock and bet on a housing market recovery, Home Depot (HD - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) represents much better risk/reward potential than homebuilder stocks.

Today, I'm adding Home Depot to the "Bricks and Mortar" portfolio as a stock to own. While there's no doubt the housing market will remain severely depressed in 2008, this stock price already reflects a significant cut to earnings this year and next.

In a slowing economy, cash flow is king. Home Depot, the world's largest home-improvement retailer, will generate $2.5 billion of free cash flow this year, by my estimates. This forecast is based on the 2% revenue drop that analysts are projecting for 2008, along with the flat to slightly down margins estimated for 2007.

Going out to 2010 -- once a full recovery begins at the retailer -- free cash flow will be closer to $4 billion.

The housing slowdown has already eaten into Home Depot, resulting in ongoing declines in same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year. In the third quarter, same-store sales tumbled 6%.

Historically, same-store sales growth at Home Depot and its main competitor, Lowe's (LOW - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), tend to highly correlate with sales of new and existing homes, according to recent research notes from Jefferies & Co. analyst Daniel Binder.

The simple message here is that once home sales begin to grow again, so should same-store sales at Home Depot.

Looking out to next year, there are several catalysts to boost shares, including a large stock buyback, easing comparisons for same-store sales, and an expanding price-to-earnings ratio as long-term growth once again becomes more visible for investors.

Analysts also expect Home Depot to slow down store expansions and reinvest in the current stores to compete better with Lowe's, which has made inroads in many of Home Depot's markets.

Even assuming a drop in earnings in 2008 and flat growth in 2009, I estimate Home Depot is worth around $34 per share -- about 15% upside from the current $29.50 price.

To get this valuation, I've used a discounted cash flow model, since Home Depot generates so much cash.

My upcoming earnings scenario at the retailer is slightly more bearish than the consensus analyst estimates. I project revenue will fall 7% in 2008, remain flat in 2009, and eventually recover to a long-term trend of 5% annual growth in 2010 and beyond.

I estimate gross margins this year will be slightly down from the depressed levels of 2007, and should eventually recover in 2010, once sales growth returns.

When looking across sectors and individual companies, the enterprise value-to-EBITDA metric is important because it compares cash flow-generating abilities independent of a firm's debt levels.

Home Depot has an enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.2 (based on 2008 estimates). Wal-Mart, in comparison, has an 8 multiple. That's because Wal-Mart is expected to grow EBITDA from 2007 to 2009, compared with a slight decline at Home Depot in the same time frame.