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* May 27, 2010, 9:31 AM ET

Monsanto Cuts Forecast to Realign Herbicide Product

By Tiernan Ray

Shares of Monsanto (MON) are off $2, or 4%, at $50.50, after the company this morning cut its forecast to for this year’s earnings per share to a range of $2.40 to $2.60, down from an earlier projection of $3.10 to $3.30, and below analysts’ $3.13 consensus estimate.

For the current quarter, the company said it sees 75 cents to 80 cents, well below the $1.32 expectation.

Free cash flow, as a result will also be lower this year, at $400 million versus a prior estimate of $500 million.

The cut is the result of “fundamental structural changes” in the glyphosate-based herbicides industry, the compay said, forcing a “repositioning” of its “Roundup” brand of products.

Monsanto plans to “simplify” roundup, to present farmers to “reduce the uncertainty” associated with the product, it said.

The changes include lowering prices for the 2011 growing season, but also paying distributors sooner to close out some product in the channel.

Also, sales in Q3 were curtailed by “an abbreviated burn-down season” in the U.S., the company said.

Monsanto Projects Solid Conclusion of Fiscal Year
- Management Expects Ongoing EPS Within Projected Range at $2.40-$2.45, Free Cash Flow in $400 Million to $500 Million Range
- Extends Cost-Management Efforts in Roundup® to Target Positive EBIT and Cash Contribution From Operating Segment in Fiscal Year 2011

Aug 31, 2010
8:00am

ST. LOUIS, Aug. 31, 2010 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- As its fiscal year draws to a close, Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) today confirmed the drivers of its fourth-quarter operating plan have tracked well with management expectations, positioning the company to conclude the fiscal year within its previous guidance ranges for ongoing earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow.

The company expects ongoing EPS for the fiscal year in the range of $2.40 to $2.45 a share, at the low end of its previous $2.40 to $2.60 guidance range. This expectation reflects strong quarterly seed and trait sales in Latin America and other international markets, solid fourth-quarter performance of Monsanto's crop-protection business, and the realization of discrete tax benefits. The company continues to expect free cash flow in the range of $400 million to $500 million for the fiscal year. (For a reconciliation of EPS and free cash flow, see note 1.)

"Our operating plan for the quarter and the conclusion of the fiscal year focused on delivering on our revised commitments and setting up our business for mid-teens earnings growth going forward," said Chief Financial Officer Carl Casale. "With a solid wrap to the quarter, we'll turn the page and start a new chapter as our growth focus shifts squarely to our seeds-and-traits business."

Roundup® Strategic Repositioning Actions Successful

Implementation of the company's strategic repositioning of the Roundup® business has been successful, Casale indicated. Earlier this year, Monsanto announced it would lower prices of Roundup and other glyphosate-based herbicides in key geographies to bring them more in line with generics. In the fourth quarter, the company saw significant channel support for its new product positioning in multiple markets, reflected in stronger-than-expected branded volume, particularly among U.S. customers. Additionally, the company resolved outstanding issues related to a supply agreement in the quarter, which contributed to the quarter and helps align the business going forward.

Casale reported that the company continues to make good progress with its new weed management approach built on using the Roundup brand to support the seeds-and-traits business. The strategy will allow Monsanto to offer multiple weed control options for farmers, while decreasing overall infrastructure and support for the crop-protection business, including reduced working capital and SG&A expense. This strategy enables the company to extend its cost-management efforts to streamline the Roundup business to scale it for its expected steady-state contribution to the ongoing business. Monsanto extended its restructuring program to cover an estimated $180 million pre-tax to conclude the crop protection strategic alignment and better align the resourcing for corporate supporting functions. Approximately $150 million of the charge is expected to be recorded in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010. The restructuring charge will affect as-reported EPS by approximately $0.22 and will be primarily reflected in fiscal year 2010 with the remaining charge in fiscal year 2011.

As a result of these actions, the company projects a steady-state gross profit contribution of $250 million to $300 million from the Roundup and other glyphosate-based herbicide business, and that the business will be both EBIT positive and a key contributor to cash for fiscal year 2011.

Casale indicated Monsanto continues to be on track to maintain SG&A expenses in the range of $2 billion to $2.1 billion for fiscal year 2010. With the incremental benefit of the additional cost-management, the company expects to be well within its expected range of flat to inflationary growth in SG&A expense for fiscal year 2011.

Additionally in the fourth quarter, Monsanto expects to recognize the benefits of several discrete tax items that are anticipated to further lower the company's projected tax rate below the previous range of better than 29 percent to 30 percent for the fiscal year.

Early Seeds-and-Traits Momentum

Monsanto's seeds and genomics segment has improved sales ahead of the local planting seasons in Latin America and other international markets versus the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year. The start to the Latin American season reflects a carry through of momentum from the 2009-2010 growing season, with indicators of good growth in trait penetration and unit-volume growth cumulatively across the region, despite the fact that planted acres for corn in Brazil are expected to decrease going into the 2010-2011 planting season. Last week, the company also reached an important milestone toward the commercial introduction of Monsanto's Bt-Roundup Ready 2 Yield® soybean product in Brazil as the National Technical Biosafety Committee (CTNBio) approved the trait for planting.

Monsanto will provide a complete report on fourth-quarter and fiscal-year earnings on Oct. 6.

Monsanto Plunges on Concerns About SmartStax Corn-Seed Yields
By Jack Kaskey - Sep 28, 2010 5:24 PM GMT+0200


Monsanto Co., the world’s largest seed company, fell the most in four months in New York amid concerns that its new SmartStax corn seeds aren’t performing as well as predicted.

Monsanto, based in St. Louis, dropped $3.58, or 6.8 percent, to $49.49 at 11:06 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the biggest decline among companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The shares earlier fell as much as 8.4 percent, the biggest intraday drop since May 27.

Early harvest data show SmartStax seeds, which have eight added genes to protect against weeds and bugs, are yielding 3 percent to 5 percent less than cheaper seeds with two or three added traits, said Laurence Alexander, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York.

“The initial data is weaker than we expected,” Alexander, who is based in New York and rates the shares “hold,” said in a report today.

Monsanto will provide credits for 2011 seed purchases to farmers who are dissatisfied with SmartStax corn or Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans, and that could become a “headwind” for the company next year, he said. Monsanto said Sept. 20 that early harvest data showed some new SmartStax corn hybrids were missing yield projections.

Monsanto, led by Chief Executive Officer Hugh Grant, in December promoted SmartStax, its most expensive seed, as “the highest yielding corn product available.” The company is counting on SmartStax to help boost profit as much as 17 percent a year after earnings from Roundup herbicide collapsed as competitors cut prices on generic versions.

Kelli Powers, a spokeswoman for Monsanto, didn’t immediately return calls seeking comment. Monsanto said last week it still expects SmartStax will yield 5 percent to 10 percent more than so-called triple stacks when all the data is collected.

Monsanto’s Fortunes Turn Sour
Seth Perlman/Associated Press

Farmer Jerry McCulley refills his sprayer with the weed killer glyphosate on a farm near Auburn, Ill. A handful of hardy weeds have adapted to survive glyphosate, which many scientists say threatens to make the ubiquitous herbicide far less useful to farmers.

By ANDREW POLLACK
Published: October 4, 2010

As recently as late December, Monsanto was named “company of the year” by Forbes magazine. Last week, the company earned a different accolade from Jim Cramer, the television stock market commentator. “This may be the worst stock of 2010,” he proclaimed.

Monsanto, the world’s biggest seed company, plans to complete most of its $800 million stock buyback plan more than a year ahead of schedule after the shares dropped to the lowest since 2007.

Monsanto, the giant of agricultural biotechnology, has been buffeted by setbacks this year that have prompted analysts to question whether its winning streak from creating ever more expensive genetically engineered crops is coming to an end.

The company’s stock, which rose steadily over several years to peak at around $145 a share in mid-2008, closed Monday at $47.77, having fallen about 42 percent since the beginning of the year. Its earnings for the fiscal year that ended in August, which will be announced Wednesday, are expected to be well below projections made at the beginning of the year, and the company has abandoned its profit goal for 2012 as well.

The latest blow came last week, when early returns from this year’s harvest showed that Monsanto’s newest product, SmartStax corn, which contains an unprecedented eight inserted genes, was providing yields no higher than the company’s less expensive corn that contains only three foreign genes.

Monsanto has already been forced to sharply cut prices on SmartStax and on its newest soybean seeds, called Roundup Ready 2 Yield, as sales fell below projections.

But there is more. Sales of Monsanto’s Roundup, the widely used herbicide, has collapsed this year under an onslaught of low-priced generics made in China. Weeds are growing resistant to Roundup, dampening the future of the entire Roundup Ready crop franchise. And the Justice Department is investigating Monsanto for possible antitrust violations.

Until now, Monsanto’s main challenge has come from opponents of genetically modified crops, who have slowed their adoption in Europe and some other regions. Now, however, the outspoken critics also include farmers and investors who were once in Monsanto’s camp.

“My personal view is that they overplayed their hand,” William R. Young, managing director of ChemSpeak and a consultant to investors in the chemical industry, said of Monsanto. “They are going to have to demonstrate to the farmer the advantage of their products.”

Brett D. Begemann, Monsanto’s executive vice president for seeds and traits, said the setbacks were not reflective of systemic management problems and that the company was already moving to deal with them.

“Farmers clearly gave us some feedback that we have made adjustments from,” he said in an interview Monday.

Mr. Begemann said that Monsanto used to introduce new seeds at a price that gave farmers two thirds and Monsanto one third of the extra profits that would come from higher yields or lower pest-control costs. But with SmartStax corn and Roundup Ready 2 soybeans, the company’s pricing aimed for a 50-50 split.

That backfired as American farmers grew only 6 million acres of Roundup Ready 2 soybeans this year, below the company’s goal of 8 million to 10 million acres, and only 3 million acres of SmartStax corn, below the goal of 4 million.

So now Monsanto is moving back to the older arrangement. SmartStax seed for planting next year will be priced at about only $8 an acre more than other seeds, down from about a $24 premium for this year’s seeds, Mr. Begemann said. The company will also offer credits for free seed to farmers who planted SmartStax this year and were disappointed.

Monsanto has also moved to offer farmers more varieties with fewer inserted genes. Some farmers have said they often have to buy traits they do notneed — such as protection from the corn rootworm in regions where that pest is not a problem — in order to get the best varieties. This issue has surfaced in the antitrust investigation.

Monsanto’s arch rival, DuPont’s Pioneer Hi-Bred, has also capitalized on the limited variety under a campaign called “right product, right acre.”

“If they don’t have a need for rootworm then we won’t have that trait in that product,” Paul E. Schickler, the president of Pioneer, said in an interview.

After years of rapidly losing market share in corn seeds to Monsanto, Pioneer says it has gained back 4 percentage points in the last two years, to 34 percent. Monsanto puts its market share at 36 percent in 2009 and says it has remained flat this year. In soybeans, Pioneer puts its share at 31 percent, up 7 percent over the last two years; Monsanto puts its share at 28 percent last year and said it has dropped some this year.

Monsanto had a similar problem with lower-than-expected yields on Roundup Ready 2 soybeans last year, when the crop was first planted commercially, forcing it to slash the premium it charges.

But this year, the yield appears to be meeting expectations, according to OTR Global, a market research firm that surveys farmers and seed dealers. That could bode well for SmartStax next year.

One reason is that the Roundup Ready 2 gene is now offered in more varieties, making it better suited to more growing conditions. The yield of a crop is mainly determined by the seed’s intrinsic properties, not the inserted genes. An insect protection gene will not make a poor variety a high yielder any more than spiffy shoes will turn a slow runner into Usain Bolt. In the first year of a new product, few varieties contain the new gene.

Still, Mosanto is bound at some point to face diminishing returns from its strategy of putting more and more insect-resistance and herbicide-resistance genes into the same crop, at ever increasing prices. Growth might have to eventually come from new traits, such as a drought-tolerant corn the company hopes to introduce in 2012.

“Technologically, they are still the market leader,” said Laurence Alexander, an analyst at Jefferies & Company. “The main issue going forward is do they get paid for the technology they deliver. The jury is still out on that one. It’s going to take a year or two of data to reassure people.”

George Soros Portfolio
Für Alle, die sich für George Soros sowie deren Investments interessieren: Hier ist ein guter Überblick über sein aktuelles Portfolio sowie deren Veränderungen im letzten Quartal:


http://long-term-investments.blogspot.com/2010/11/george-s…