Amine Bouchentouf: Junior Miners Offer Bigger Bang for the Buck
than ETFs
Source: Zig Lambo of The Gold Report (10/5/11)
Amine Bouchentouf Despite the recent pullback in metals prices,
Amine Bouchentouf still believes that precious metals and mining
stocks offer investors the best way to profit from the unfolding
global economic mess. In this exclusive interview with The Gold
Report, he talks about a range of mining stocks that can offer
investors the type of diversification and upside potential needed
in today's rocky market environment and highlights several
favorites.
Companies Mentioned: Avion Gold Corp. - Banro Corp. - Barrick Gold
Corp. - Franco-Nevada Corp. - Golden Predator Corp. - New Gold Inc.
- Newmont Mining Corp. - Royal Gold Inc. - Silver Predator
Corp.
The Gold Report: Thank you for joining us today. You wrote
"Commodities for Dummies" and are a partner in Commodities
Investors LLC, an advisory firm. What is your reaction to the
spectacular run-up in metals' prices and recent pullback in the
last few weeks? Where are we headed from here?
Amine Bouchentouf: We have to put things in perspective. Let's not
forget that gold has been one of the top performing commodities
over the last five years, and even over the last year. I
recommended gold in 2006 at about $500/ounce (oz.). Between 2006
and today, gold is up about 175%, even considering last week's
downturn. Take it one step further; even this year gold is up
approximately 15% while the S&P is down 7%. So, if you were in
gold over the last five years or just the last year, you have
outperformed the broad market by a wide margin. The long-term
uptrend remains intact but these kinds of pullbacks are normal and
provide buying opportunities.
TGR: So, with that mind, what are you thinking about performance in
the next several months, and where are we going from here?
AB: I think we are going to see a volatile fourth quarter. Gold,
throughout the year, has been acting as an independent asset. We
saw it last week get caught up in the global asset deflationary
cycle where, for the first time, every asset class went down with
the exception of Treasuries. Equities went down and gold went down
with them. That was, quite frankly, slightly unexpected by a lot of
market participants. The fundamentals tell me that gold prices
should go up.
Only 174,000 tons of gold exist in the world above ground. Looking
at the supply side, that asset is growing at 2% a year. Last year
gold production came in at approximately 2,500 tons. Throw in the
physical demand from Asia and the Central Banks—for the first time
we are seeing central banks become net purchasers of bullion. This
is a new trend that I believe is going to put a floor on gold
prices going forward. I've analyzed the holdings of central banks
very closely and I think they are going to act as major drivers of
physical gold purchases going forward, especially the emerging
market central banks.
Let me be specific. The United States holds 75% of its foreign
exchange reserves in gold. China currently holds 2% of its foreign
exchange reserves in gold. Now we are seeing the Chinese Central
Bank, the Brazilian Central Bank, the Russian Central Bank and the
South Korean Central Bank all start to acquire gold very
aggressively. Kazakhstan this year announced a very important
decision. The Kazakhstan Central Bank now has a first option on all
of the gold produced in Kazakhstan. And, Kazakhstan is a Top 10
producer with almost 40 tons of gold coming out every year—in a
tight market, that kind of move can have a large impact, especially
when other central banks start doing the same thing. We're now
seeing a major move by the central banks into the physical market
and that's going to provide a broad support for prices going
forward.
TGR: Given that demand, if no one is a seller and every one is a
buyer, then what happens?
AB: Right now what we are seeing is an increase in investor demand.
We are seeing exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and more participants in
the futures markets. We are seeing more hedge funds. We are seeing
more mutual funds start to get physical. These have added some
volatility to the prices, which is what we saw last week. We saw
people deleverage. We saw margin calls and we saw the financial
markets dictating the physical price. That has added a lot of
volatility. Investors should be very careful of that kind of
volatility. Going forward, we may be seeing larger spikes in gold
than we regularly see in the silver markets, with new participants
starting to flood into the gold markets.
TGR: So, the general trend is up with a lot of erratic activity in
between.
AB: Yes.
TGR: In your writing, you have taken the position that junior gold
mining companies are more attractive than the ETFs. Tell us why you
think that's the case.
AB: Well, I would like to first say that the ETFs have helped in
the democratization of owning all sorts of commodities. I'm not
anti-ETFs by any means. I think ETFs provide an important tool and
access point to the market that investors otherwise would not get.
I would say that the junior mining companies offer a lot more
upside because you have the exploration advantage and the potential
for new discoveries through knowledgeable management teams that are
out there trying to add value.
Let's just take a quick example. New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX;
NGD:NYSE.A) is a stock that has outperformed gold prices and gold
ETFs by a wide margin. That's because the company has a really
solid management team in place and it has been able to grow
reserves and add value while keeping cash costs very low. The
junior mining space is a great way to get that kind of exposure. If
you want to get exposure to gold with additional upside, then I
believe the mining equities in general—and the junior miners in
particular—offer you a very, very good way to do that.
Also, when you are buying into a junior miner you are getting
physical gold at a deep discount. For example, the extraction costs
of some of these companies are $350–$450/oz. Even at $600/oz.,
which is the case of some miners, you are still getting your
physical gold at a deep discount when you are buying into a mining
equity. In an ideal situation, you would like to own both. You
would like to have some physical exposure, but also get the junior
mining exposure because the growth in value can be really
explosive.
TGR: So, basically ETFs provide a sort of mutual fund approach to
investing whereas the individual stocks provide bigger upside with
potential pops, if a company comes up with something really
spectacular.
AB: Exactly right. ETFs are similar to a tanker ship, which
provides you with slow, steady exposure. Whereas the junior miners
and the mining companies are more of a speedboat, which can give
you a lot faster upside than a tanker would.
TGR: Pure commodities trading offers futures and options and that
sort of thing. That's a whole different game for people who are
interested more in gambling. Is that a good way to describe it?
AB: I wouldn't necessarily characterize it as gambling. I would say
that the futures/options space is for experienced market players.
If you don't have experience trading options or futures, don't do
it because the losses can be dramatic. And, you can actually lose
much more than your principal. One of the red flags of futures and
options is that you can trade them on margin, often with low margin
requirements. So, I think if you want to get commodity exposure,
ETFs, equities and slight hedging positions, if you are
experienced, are really the best way to go.
TGR: When you look at these junior companies, how do you categorize
them? What criteria do you use?
AB: You have the three categories: explorers, intermediate
producers and senior producers. Depending on which playing field
you are in, you are going to get a different risk profile. If you
want higher risk with potentially extremely high reward, then I
would recommend looking into the explorers. We have recently seen
companies make big discoveries and their stock price going through
the roof. That's not just in the mining space, but in oil and other
commodities as well. For the more high-risk/high-reward play, I
would recommend looking at explorers.
The intermediates offer a steady base from which to build an
investment portfolio. The reward might not be as high, but it
establishes a floor because the company already has production. Any
upside it can generate will flow down to the shareholder, and
that's where you can benefit.
Seniors like Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE) and Newmont
Mining Corp. (NEM:NYSE) are companies that are already producing
and have very substantial reserves. The upside will come from
acquisitions or ramping up existing production or issuing dividends
to existing investors. So, as an investor going to the mining
equity space you really have a wonderful universe of companies to
choose from that fits every investment profile.
TGR: Do you want to tell us about some names that you think are
particularly attractive at this point?
AB: I like several different companies in the space. As far as
companies that are already producing, New Gold is an interesting
company. It has some great assets and it is growing them. It has a
good exposure base. The company is in mining-friendly jurisdictions
in Canada, the United States, Australia and Mexico. I'm also not
afraid to look into emerging markets like Africa and Latin America
for growth. I think a company like Avion Gold Corp. (AVR:TSX;
AVGCF

TCQX), for example, which is in Mali in West Africa, can
provide some terrific upside. The company is already producing
about 90 thousand ounces (Koz.) a year and has plans to increase
that to 200 Koz. by 2012; it also has some great potential upside
in exploration with a target-rich area of 600 square kilometers.
It's also in Burkina Faso, which can give you even more exposure to
a growing mining jurisdiction. A company like Banro Corp.
(BAA:NYSE; BAA:TSX), which is based in Central Africa, for example,
can offer additional exposure with an existing base of 7 million
ounces of gold plus an exploration package of 210 square
kilometers. That's a spectacularly well-managed company and it can
offer tremendous upside.
As far as some of the other names, I do like some of the royalty
companies as well. I think the royalty companies offer a unique
entry point into the market. Companies like Royal Gold Inc.
(RGL:TSX; RGLD:NASDAQ), for example, have done very well.
Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX) is also one that investors should be
keeping an eye on. These are very interesting plays because you are
getting that kind of industry exposure without the operating
expenditures. For me, as an investor, that's an attractive
proposition. If I am looking at a Franco-Nevada, this is a company
that gives me the gold exposure without the burden of operating and
capital expenditures. As an investor, I find that attractive.
TGR: Any others you like?
AB: I think Golden Predator Corp. (GPD:TSX) is a really interesting
company. It has a year-long drilling program in the mining-friendly
Yukon with no risk of having your assets seized by the government.
Its exploration area package is bigger than the state of Delaware
so the upside can be significant. Another company is Silver
Predator Corp. (SPD:TSX), which is similar to Golden Predator since
it also operates in the Yukon, except that it's focusing on silver
assets. It also has assets in Nevada, which is another
mining-friendly jurisdiction; it's thinly traded at the moment but
it's a company I'm keeping on my radar screen.
TGR: That's a good broad range of coverage for the industry. What
do you think metals and mining investors should be concerned about
in the coming months as we are going through all this turmoil?
AB: I am watching the European sovereign debt situation and any
potential spillovers it may have. If Greece defaults, that may
trigger a cascade of defaults across Europe that could dwarf the
effects after the 2008 Lehman collapse. So, in this case, I think
hard assets do provide you with good exposure. Gold, in particular,
provides safety in inflationary times. In addition, if we see large
inflationary trends, which we have already seen through
Quantitative Easing (QE) 1 and QE2, that's another reason to be in
gold. There is a direct correlation between increase of money
supply and the increase in the gold price. I've studied this very
carefully and determined that for each 1% increase in total money
supply in the United States, we see a 0.97% increase in the price
of gold.
So, if you are going to see the Federal Reserve and Bernanke print
more money, that is a bullish sign for gold, not for dollars. As an
investor looking out in the marketplace right now, I want to be in
physical assets like gold and silver. Let's not forget that gold
and silver have been currencies for centuries. Let's say that 100
years ago I showed up with a bar of gold in one hand and some green
paper in the other, which do you think would get me what I want?
The gold, because gold has that monetary aspect to it and it is a
store of value. So, in this time of turmoil and market volatility,
you want to be in gold.
TGR: Are you saying that the prospects for gold are good regardless
of the intermediate little panics where people play games?
Ultimately the metals should outweigh the paper?
AB: Absolutely. The hard assets are a store of value and a great
place to be. Going forward, we should see a big increase in gold
prices. Silver is a little bit trickier; silver is a schizophrenic
commodity because it is 50% industrial and 50% investment oriented.
These two undercurrents are always at play in the silver markets.
That is why we see such violent swings in silver. If we see a
collapse or if we see inflation in Europe and in the United States
combined with robust industrial demand from Asia, these are two
market drivers that will be bullish for silver. Again, I would like
to point out that it is very important for investors to be careful
when investing in silver because it can move violently, especially
if you are trading the futures or options.
TGR: Is there anything else you would like to leave with our
readers?
AB: Right now, valuations are very attractive in the mining equity
space. Gold is still an institutionally under-owned asset. We're
seeing strong physical demand from the central banks and from
investors. We are seeing strong physical demand for jewelry. So, I
believe the future for gold is bright. And, in a period of
tremendous market dislocation, you want to be in an asset such as
gold.
TGR: Those are good words of advice for our readers and they can
make their decisions accordingly. We will just have to stay tuned
and see what happens.
AB: Exactly.
TGR: Thanks for joining us today. We'll look forward to speaking
with you again to see what develops.