Sehr guter Artikel. Ich denke trifft den Punkt. Die
Nutzungsmöglichkeiten für NG werden wohl weiterentwickelt. Das wird
nicht von heute auf morgen gehen und Zeit erfordern. Aber an der
Börse wird bekanntlich eh nur die Zukunft gehandelt. Das Momentum
spricht auch für steigende Kurse und die Shorties werden weiter
Positionen abdecken müßen, da es dzt. wohl zu heiß ist auf weiter
fallende NG-Preise zu setzen - und dies OBWOHL die Nachfrage zur
Zeit nicht hoch genug ist. Wenn dann noch weitere Produzenten dem
Chesapeake-Beispiel folgen, wird sich der up-Turn noch
beschleunigen.
Wird eine spannende Woche...oder sogar 3 (!!??) spannende Wochen?
-siehe unten-....

March Natural Gas formed a dramatic closing price reversal bottom
last week, setting up the market for a 2 to 3 week rally equal to
at least 50 percent of the last break from 3.7410 to 2.2890.
This retracement target price is 3.0150. Further upside momentum
could drive the market into the 61.8 percent price level at 3.1860.
A closing price reversal does not mean the trend has changed, but
indicates that selling pressure has subsided.
The key to any closing price reversal bottom is the follow-through
rally. A trade
through 2.8380 will be needed to confirm the
bottom. Without the follow-through, the market is likely to
retest the low.
A pair of downtrending Gann angles at 2.5550 and 2.6720 continues
to control the short-term direction of the market; however, the
market is in a position to crossover to the bullish side of these
angles. If this occurs, then traders should look for a further
rally into another downtrending Gann angle at 3.0210. Combined with
the retracement zone, this angle creates a solid resistance
cluster.
It wasn’t the weather or oversold conditions,
but a statement by
President Obama that sent the natural gas market higher last
week. The policy shift by the White House in favor of greater
gas development encouraged shorts to cover their positions and new
speculators to explore the
long side of the market.
“We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100
years,” Obama said during his Tuesday evening State of the Union
address. “And my administration will take every possible action to
safely develop this energy.”
This statement turned the market around and signaled a possible
long-term bottom if the Obama administration follows through on its
promise to provide natural gas producers with incentives to develop
uses for the product.
Even with the possible shift in the administration’s energy policy,
it may take years to convert the U.S. to total dependency on
natural gas. This would include converting homes from oil to gas as
well as motor vehicles. So while the industry took a week to
celebrate the possible change, the fact remains that consumption
cannot keep up with supply and that inventory currently sits near
an all-time high.With winter approaching the half-way point,
producers are starting to become concerned that the winter season
will end with a record amount of natural gas in storage. If
production continues at its current pace, inventories may reach
full capacity my May since consumption is expected to drop after
winter ends.
The concern that natural gas drillers will continue to produce more
gas than is being used was addressed last week when Chesapeake
Energy Corp. announced it would cut production of dry gas in 2012
by as much as one-billion cubic feet per day. They were also
considering reducing their drilling rig count.
If other producers decide to follow Chesapeake then we may have
seen the bottom in natural gas. If another producer decides to pick
up the slack then prices could stabilize and form a support base.
So while the President’s statement may have been welcome news and
an excuse to cover short positions, the real driver of higher
prices will be a slash in production.Factors Affecting Natural
Gas This Week:
Weather: The mild winter has led to low demand which is helping to
drive up inventories. At this point, it doesn’t look like cold
temperatures can save this market so the focus is shifting toward
production controls.
Supply and Demand: Chesapeake Energy took the first swing at
controlling production or supply, the market is waiting to see if
other producers follow. Demand is low and likely to fall as spring
approaches.
Oversold Conditions: Traders seem to notice oversold conditions
when the fundamentals turn bullish. In hindsight the market was
oversold, but this condition could be taken care of following a 2
to 3 week rally.
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