China's Transition From Net Coal Exporter To Big
Importer
May. 7, 2010 (Financial Times) - A shift in demand: coal miners in
Shanzi province clock off. Though China's annual output is the
biggest of any nation, its fragmented industry fails to meet the
country's rapidly rising needs In early 1994, the International
Energy Agency released a statistic that attracted little attention
but years later would transform oil markets and the global economy.
China, the west's energy watchdog said at the time, had just become
"a net importer of oil on an annual basis for the first time since
the 1960s".
The consequences became obvious as China's voracious energy needs
propelled the country towards its current ranking as the world's
second-largest oil importer, behind only the US – in the process
pushing crude prices to a record high of nearly $150 a barrel in
2008. Beijing, which in 1993 imported a mere 30,000 barrels a day,
about as much as Ireland does now, is these days buying 5m barrels
a day – or the combined production of Kuwait and Venezuela.
Commodities analysts and executives say the shift in 1993 was an
example of a "China moment" – what happens when the world's most
populous country moves from being an exporter to a net importer of
a particular resource (or vice versa in the case of finished
goods).
The impact on prices is often not immediately clear. But over time,
as the country's import needs grow larger and larger, prices
generally rocket. It happened with oil and other commodities
including soyabeans, as demand in China proved too much for its own
geological or agricultural endowments.
Now it is the turn of coal. Last year, China became a net importer
of coal on an annual basis for the first time since reliable
records have existed. Including both thermal coal, used to fire
power plants, and coking coal, used for steelmaking, Beijing bought
104m tonnes of the commodity, compared with net exports of as much
as 80m tonnes in 2003.
The shift is helping to revive the coal industry. After decades of
being marginalised in the developed world, coal is being buoyed by
the requirements of China and India on top of already huge imports
elsewhere in Asia, including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The
speed of the upturn in demand has surprised many and the industry
is not best placed to cope. Bottlenecks in exporting countries will
hamper its ability to deliver. But while those may be resolved over
time, the fundamental change wrought by China and others will be
with us for longer.
THE MINER'S SCALE
How coal is calibrated
As global coal imports surge, quality becomes increasingly
important. Mining executives divide the market among four main
varieties based on carbon and moisture content: lignite,
sub-bituminous, bituminous and anthracite.
The quality of each coal deposit is determined by temperature and
pressure and length of time in formation. Initially, peat is
converted into lignite. Over many more millions of years,
temperature and pressure produce further changes in the lignite,
transforming it into sub-bituminous coals; then into bituminous;
and, finally, anthracite. The mining industry has being awaiting
this new "China moment" to profit from a rise in prices. In
interviews, mining executives, consultants, analysts and traders
say China will need to buy significant amounts of coking coal from
overseas from now on and probably also thermal coal.
Marius Kloppers, chief executive at BHP Billiton, the world's
largest miner, says he recalls how the company almost a decade ago
sent executives to Chinese coal mines to gauge when demand there
was likely to overwhelm indigenous supplies. "We have been waiting
for this moment to happen," he says. "While we are not sure that
2010 will be an exact repeat of 2009, we do expect the trend
towards imports in this product to continue."
The effects, on the industry but also on moves to curb carbon
emissions, will be widespread.
Traded volumes on the seaborne coal market are set to reach 1bn
tonnes a year about the middle of this decade, a remarkable growth
from less than 50m tonnes in the early 1970s. This bodes well for
miners such as Xstrata, the world's largest coal exporter, PT Bumi
Resources of Indonesia, Anglo American and Rio Tinto. The battle to
secure mines to supply China has already begun, with Hong
Kong-based trader Noble Group fighting Peabody Energy, the US-based
miner, for control of Macarthur Coal, the Australian miner. Global
trading houses are also likely to benefit. Glencore, both the
world's largest commodities trader and the largest coal trader, is
particularly well positioned to cash in on China's needs.
Low rank LigniteAccounts for 17 per cent of global coal supplies.
Used mainly to fire power plants. Crumbly in texture and ranging
from dark black to shades of brown, it has the highest moisture
content of the coal varieties. Carbon content
ranges from 25 to 35 per cent. Deposits tend to be relatively
young. Sub-bituminous Accounts for 30 per cent of global supplies,
mostly used in electricity generation and cement industries.
Typically contains 35-45 per cent carbon. Generally dull, dark
brown to black in colour, and soft and crumbly.
The impact on prices has already been significant, even if muted by
the global economic crisis. Thermal coal in Australia, an industry
benchmark, surged this year to above $100 a tonne, and miners have
concluded contracts for the year 2010-11 to supply Japanese
utilities at $98 a tonne, up 40 per cent from last year. In coking
coal, miners and steelmakers have closed contracts for April-June
at $200 a tonne, the second-highest level yet for quarterly
arrangements.
Amid these promising prospects, however, a lack of investment has
left the world's largest coal ports suffering from rail and ship
bottlenecks. Richards Bay in South Africa and the Australian coal
terminals at Dalrymple Bay, Hay Point, Gladstone and Newcastle
endure constraints that force vessels to wait weeks before they are
able to load their cargo. Even if the miners expand their
production, the export facilities will hamper them in selling more
overseas.
Yingxi Yu of Barclays Capital says the Australian coal export
terminals have faced one mishap after another in recent months,
"highlighting the fragility of a system stretched thin by strong
demand against years of underinvestment".
For China's own part, premier Wen Jiabao said this year it would
continue to import coal as needed. "Easing demand and supply
strains on coal is crucial to making adjustments to the operation
of the economy," he was quoted by local media as saying. Beijing
appears inclined to rely more on imports in order to conserve
domestic coal reserves, which are still the world's third largest
after those of the US and Russia.
Hard Bituminous Accounts for 52 per cent of global supplies, split
into steam coal used for power generation and cement-making; and
coking coal used in steelmaking. Formed under high heat and
pressure, it contains 45-86 per cent of carbon. Black to dark
brown; usually includes bright bands.
Anthracite Accounts for less than one per cent of global supplies.
Used, because of its low smoke properties, primarily for
residential and commercial heating. The highest quality coal, with
86-97 per cent carbon content. Brittle, lustrous and black.
Sources: World Coal Institute, US Department of Energy, Maryland
Energy Administration
Last year's 104m tonnes of imports pale in comparison to the amount
of coal China mines locally, which at about 3.3bn tonnes is the
biggest annual output of any nation. Beijing's shift to net imports
reflects in part a clampdown on illegal and unsafe mining, which
has forced the closure of hundreds of small mines. A
government-backed drive to consolidate the industry in Shanxi
province, home of China's most easily accessible re serves, has
also restricted production.
The consolidation drive is moving to Henan, another big producing
province. Shandong and Inner Mongolia are expected to follow, in an
attempt to improve efficiency. The US Department of Energy says the
three biggest Chinese coal companies produce less than 15 per cent
of the domestic total, adding: "China has tens of thousands of
small local coal mines where inefficient management, insufficient
investment, outdated equipment and poor safety records prevent the
full utilisation of coal resources."
By consolidating, Beijing also wants to improve safety and
environmental performance and, over time, raise output. But China
is unlikely to return to self-sufficiency, many in the global
industry believe. As a result, says Jogchum Brinksma at Citigroup,
Beijing is "reaching further and further afield" to secure coal.
"First they bought from Australia and Indonesia, and lately China
is importing coal from as far as Colombia."
Yet China is not the only force driving increased demand. India's
huge and rising coal needs are just as critical. In effect,
"Chindia" is redescribing the industry. "Coal is the fuel of the
future for Asia," says Eoghan Cunningham, chief executive of
GlobalCoal, a trading platform owned by miners, traders and
utilities.
Emmanuel Fages, a coal analyst at Société Générale, forecasts that
India will overtake South Korea as the world's second-largest buyer
before the end of the decade. The increase in demand comes as New
Delhi continues to expand its coal-fired power generation capacity.
According to the World Bank, 40 per cent of homes in India are
still without electricity. The country's authorities see coal as a
"poverty alleviation" tool to spread electricity across the
country.
The growth of South Korea and Taiwan is also likely to support the
market as those centres switch from crude oil. At the same time
Vietnam, a medium-sized expor ter, has signalled that it might
become an importer in three to five years as rapid urbanisation and
industrialisation increase coal needs. Tran Xuan Hoa, general
director of Vinacomin, the Vietnamese state-owned coal company,
says the country might need to import 100m tonnes annually by
2020.
What of the west? The current weakness in Europe, Japan and the US
is thought likely to prove a temporary consequence of recession;
utilities, cement companies and steelmakers are set to buy large
amounts this year, although in the longer term developed countries
are moving away from coal in a bid to curb global carbon emissions.
The rise in coal consumption in developing countries, particularly
China and India, poses questions about this endeavour, in
particular because the new coal-fired power stations will be
consuming the commodity for the next 30 to 40 years.
The onus to meet the extra demand will fall on Indonesia, the
world's second-largest coal exporter, which has port problems less
acute than those of Australia and South Africa. Jakarta's coal
industry has its own problems, particularly falling quality. But in
the short term, analysts forecast strong supply growth. The ramp-up
is likely to continue until at least 2015, but at the same time the
country's domestic needs will increase too, reducing the exportable
surplus.
Still, all the factors, from supply bottlenecks to other countries'
incr eased demand, are dwarfed by the rapidly growing importance of
China and to a lesser extent India. As the IEA's latest annual
World Energy Outlook puts it: "China is expected to remain a
dominant influence on the world coal market as it swings from being
a net coal exporter into a net importer."
Not only has the agency this time recognised the significance of
the "China moment"; it also adds that China and India, which in
1980 consumed just one-fifth of the world's coal output and now
take about half, will be devouring two-thirds of it by 2030.
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Source: Financial Times
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