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    Einstieg in Vietnam - jetzt oder nie! (Seite 17)

    eröffnet am 23.09.10 18:47:05 von
    neuester Beitrag 23.04.24 13:46:43 von
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    ISIN: LU0322252924 · WKN: DBX1AG · Symbol: XFVT
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     Ja Nein
      Avatar
      schrieb am 04.12.11 23:46:00
      Beitrag Nr. 77 ()
      Hi,

      dieser FTSE Vietnam Index ist mir irgendwie suspekt.
      Warum verändert sich die Zusammensetzung des Index immer so krass? - die schmeissen die Positionen raus wie es ihnen gerade gefällt - siehe zB. FPT - die hatten vor nicht allzulanger Zeit mal ~10% Gewichtung - waren damals die größte Position - nun sind sie draussen - dafür sind ein paar andere drinnen die um nichts besser sind.

      zu

      MSN: BI Private Equity New Markets II K/S Sells 4Mln Shares
      September 22, 2011

      BI Private Equity New Markets II K/S, a major shareholder of Masan Group Corporation (MSN) sold 4 million shares by September 19.

      Der ETF Vietnam kaufte die MSN Aktien von BankInvest am 19.September zum Kurs von über ~151 000 Dong/Aktie.( Value 604,000.000.000 Dong )

      http://penm.dk/showpage.aspx?pageid=953

      Exchange Traded Funds in Vietnam: IMPERFECT TOOLS
      Tuesday, 27 September 2011 (VFR)

      Birth of ETFs in Vietnam
      Vietnam ‘s financial market has broadly intergrated into the global financial market in recent years so it is no surprise that huge amounts of foreign capital are flowing into the country’s stock market. With the appearance of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), latent cash flows have run into the stock market and ETFs have acquired a significant role. Dr. Le Hong Giang from the Forex Department at Tactical Global Management, said that “ETFs have contributed greatly to fluctuations in the VN-Index as well as the HN-Index.”
      ETFs are a type of security that track an index, a commodity or a basket of assets such as stocks, gold, oil or other liquid assets. Throughout a trading day, ETFs experience price changes as they are bought and sold. On the stock market, ETFs can imitate a certain stock index like Dow Jones, S&P 500 or the VN-Index. The manager of an ETF will set an investment portfolio of certain stocks based on their effect on the general market index. Therefore, once the price of one stock changes, the general market index as well as the net value of the fund will be affected.
      ETFs are less expensive than mutual funds because they are not actively managed so there is no management fee to worry about. Another major benefit is their ability to help investors diversify their portfolios. Asset allocation is an important part of any investment strategy. No investor should put “all their eggs in the one basket”, which is why financial advisors recommend buying a wide range of stocks to benefit from risk reduction.ETFs quickly spread all over the world, and Vietnam was no exception.

      On January 15,2008, Deutsche Bank AG established the first ETF in Vietnam’s infant stock market, called DB X-Trackers FTSE Vietnam Index ETF, with capital of US$5.1 million. Two months later its capital saw a sharp increase, to about US$160 million, in line with the growth of the VN-Index in August 2008. It then fell to 55 percent of its original value during the global economic crisis. Another typical ETF is the Market Vector Vietnam ETF (VNM), set by Van Eck Global in 2009. The Net Asset Value (NAV) of the fund also fluctuates with the VN-index. The FTSE Vietnam Index ETF and the Vector Vietnam ETF are now the two main ETFs in Vietnam, and while there are some new ETFs available their role in the market is negligible.

      ETFs and the “crooked” VN-Index
      Despite the fact that the NAVs of ETFs follow changes in the VN-Index, asset increases of ETFs in Vietnam are a major percent, from 505 points to 440, but the total assets of the FTSE Vietnam Index saw an increase of 90 percent, from US$163 million to US$327.134 million. VNM also saw a sharp rise in assets, to over US$260 million form US$14 million, when it first appeared. The recent low liquidity of the market also creates opportunities for ETFs to become stronger and influence the VN-Index.
      In tracking the market index, ETFs in Vietnam will, therefore, buy blue chips that have a huge impact on the index. According to recent figures, the two main ETFs in Vietnam now hold 29 blue chips and are trading huge volumes in each session. Therefore, although there is a lot of pressure from the gloomy economic prospects and many small stocks are falling, a number of blue chips are seeing impressing growth. In 2010 the price of BVH tripled while the price of MSN and VIC doubled. Once high value stocks are bought, the market index will change and “the VN-Index does not reveal the movement of middle and small stocks,” said Mr. Trinh Hoai Giang, Deputy General Director of the Ho Chi Minh Securities Corporation. Consequently, the VN-Index is now higher than its true value and its role as the barometer of the economy has become unclear.


      ETFs and Vietnamese Investors
      Local investors are always short of information about the activities of ETFs, as they “release information in English only, with confusing words and terminologies that are not easily understood,” according to one investor, so Vietnamese investors sometimes incur unexpected losses.
      A few months ago, VNM announced it would raise additional capital of US$276 million, which encouraged many investors to pick up the stock. A few days later, however, VNM silently made US$276 million “go up in smoke” and Vietnamese investors fell into a price trap. Although Mr. Eduardo Escarido from VNM claimed nothing untoward had happened, “this was not persuasive,” one investor told VFR.
      Vietnamese investors may also encounter the bull trap that ETFs can create. After each fiscal year, all ETFs wish to raise their NAV to attract more investors. ETFs often buy huge amounts of blue-chips to make prices go up, and then sell them. Simple as this trick may be, many Vietnamese investors see losses because they sometimes only consider the market index and naively believe that liquidity is rising.

      Stricter laws
      ETFs have developed over a long period of time around the world and have proved to be a useful tool for investors. Mr. Nguyen Xuan Minh, General Director of Vietnam Asset Management, said that “the establishment of EFTs is a new investment trend and popular around the world, especially over the last two years. But the unexpected performance of ETFs in Vietnam has led to requests for the legal system to be adjusted and for support to be provided to investors.”
      First of all, it is necessary to have clear mechanisms for information dissemination. Vietnamese administrators should clarify the language used in reports from ETFs. Proper explainations of the terminology used should also be included. Futhermore, strict punishments for any breaches will make the market operate in a more orderly fashion.
      Second, some of the laws regarding the stock market should be continually adjusted to fit in with the activities of ETFs.As ETFs can buy and sell very quickly and their investment strategies are diversified, the law must change to limit the ability of ETFs to drive the market. An expert from Stoxplus recommended the following solutions:
      - Change the formula in calculating the general market indices;
      - An IPO be mandatory when a new company is listed on the market and the number of shareholders should be large enough to reduce speculation;
      - Permit investors to sell and buy stocks during a single day, which will balance supply and demand;
      - Diversify other deravative tools to protect investors.

      Grüße
      TC
      Avatar
      schrieb am 04.12.11 13:33:56
      Beitrag Nr. 76 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.435.092 von ThaiClaus am 04.12.11 00:25:33Ich kann der Deutschen Bank hier keinen Vorwurf machen. Der Index wird ja von FTSE erstellt und die DB legt nur den ETF darüber auf. Tatsächlich hätte ich aber eigentlich lieber einen ETF auf den FTSE Vietnam All-Share Index:

      http://www.ftse.com/Indices/FTSE_Vietnam_Index_Series/index.…

      Masan dürfte von FTSE wohl wegen der Größe und der Verfügbarkeit für ausländische Investoren aufgenommen worden sein. Dazu müsste man aber wohl mal tiefer die Index-Regeln studieren:

      http://www.ftse.com/Indices/FTSE_Vietnam_Index_Series/Downlo…

      Zuletzt dürften sich FTSE und VNI zwar wenig in der Performance unterschieden haben, diese hochbewertete Masan sehe ich aber auch ungern im ETF. Hoffentlich kann man irgendwann mal vietnamesische Aktien direkt kaufen.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 04.12.11 10:57:11
      Beitrag Nr. 75 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.435.105 von ThaiClaus am 04.12.11 01:06:53Ich finde es schon komisch, dass ein Unternehmen so stark gewichtet wird. Bin da noch nicht investiert aber ich schau mich mal wegen einem anderen Vietnam Investment um, dass ein bißchen durchsichtiger ist.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 04.12.11 01:06:53
      Beitrag Nr. 74 ()
      Hier kann man ein bisschen nachlesen was in letzter Zeit los war bei Masan Group (MSN) ......

      http://www.hsx.vn/hsx_en/Modules/Danhsach/SymbolDetail.aspx?…

      z.B:
      11/17/2011 4:39:00 PM

      MSN: Trading result of inside shareholder
      MASAN GROUP CORP has disclosed a trading result of inside shareholders as follows:

      Stock symbol: MSN

      1. Trader: Ms. Nguyen Quynh Lam – Head of the Supervisory Board

      - Owning volume before trading: 2,050,000 shares (0.397%)

      - Volume registered to sell: 2,000,000 shares

      - Sold volume: 2,000,000 shares

      - Owning volume after trading: 50,000 shares

      - Trading method: put through

      - Trading period: November 16, 2011



      2. Trader: Mr. Nguyen Thieu Nam – Deputy CEO

      - Owning volume before trading: 2,110,400 shares (0.4957%)

      - Volume registered to sell: 2,000,000 shares

      - Sold volume: 2,000,000 shares

      - Owning volume after trading: 110,400 shares

      - Trading method: put through

      - Trading period: November 15, 2011


      MSN: Announcement of listing & trading additional shares
      Ma San Group Corporation will list and trade additional shares on the Hochiminh Stock Exchange as follows:

      Stock symbol: MSN
      Stock type: Common Stock
      Par value: VND10,000
      Volume: 29,872,449 shares
      Total value (basing on par value): VND298,724,490,000
      Effective date of the listing license: December 07, 2011
      Official trading date: December 19, 2011.
      1 Antwort
      Avatar
      schrieb am 04.12.11 00:25:33
      Beitrag Nr. 73 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.434.188 von startvestor am 03.12.11 13:44:29Hi,

      die Masan Group nun ganz locker neu in den Index aufgenommen - und dies gleichmal als größte Position mit einer Gewichtung von ~19% - und gezahlt wurde ein KGV von eh nur 44.!!!!
      Ich kann mir nicht helfen ich glaube da will uns jemand verar..... :cool:
      Ich traue der DB nicht mehr über den Weg .... die Verschiebungen im Index sind für mich vollkommen unverständlich.
      Schiebt die DB Titel aus ihren eigenen Depots einfach in den Fonds um sie an uns Deppen teuer zu verdrehen???? - Naja - hoffen wir das Beste - aber rechnen wir mit dem Schlimmsten. :confused:

      Stand vom 29.11.2011
      Name--------Gewichtung in %
      Masan Gr. 19,12%
      Vincom 12,51%
      HAGL Joint Stock Co ORD VND 10000 7,21%
      Petroviet Fertlz (new) 6,95%
      Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry & Trade ORD VND 10000 6,59%
      Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam ORD VND 10000 6,58%
      Petrovietnam Dri - NEW 5,97%
      Bao Viet Hldgs. 5,22%
      HOA PHAT GROUP JSC 4,81%
      Kinh Do (New) 2,84%
      Petrovietnam Finance Joint Stock Corp 2,58%
      Kinhbac City Develop. Share Hlds. 2,37%
      Refrigeration Eletrical Engineering Company ORD VND 10000 2,09%
      Becamex Infrastruct. Develop. 2,01%
      Tan Tao Inv Ind (New) 1,92%
      Ocean Group 1,55%
      Pha Lai Thermal - NEW 1,37%
      Quoc Cuong Gia Lai 1,34%
      Gemadept Corporation ORD VND 10000 1,33%
      Song Da Urban 1,23%
      Development Investment Construction JSC ORD VND 10000 1,22%
      Khang Dien House 0,88%
      Tu Liem Urban (New) 0,68%
      Petrovnm General 0,62%
      DaNang Rubber Jsc ORD VND 10000 0,59%
      Investment & Trading of Real Estate 0,44%

      MASAN GROUP

      For the first 9 months of 2011, net sales of MSC/Group increased by 21.9% up to VND 4,246 billion. We think it is a quite modest growth in context of YoY CPI in September 2011 at 18.16%. It may indicate that the growth of sales volume is not high. While the revenue of 3Q11 & 3Q10 are rather similar, inventories of 3Q11 increased sharply as compared to end of 2010 and 3Q11 which may indicate that the market demand has not been good as expected. On QoQ basis, sales even declined by 7%.
      Sales in the first 9 months of 2011 only accounted for 54% of year target. It is likely that Masan Group is hard to achieve its plan. And the same happened to net profit when 9M11‟s net profit only accounted for 50%.

      Since the beginning of 2011, the PERs of consumer staples stocks under our coverage have showed different trends because some of their YTD movements are driven by specific events, not totally by fundamental factors.

      VNM: Since Mar 2011 to Nov 2011, the PER of VNM has been in an uptrend from 8.63x to 13.05x. While there is no significant improvement in fundamental factors of VNM, this stock price has continuously increased thanks to its share bonus plan at the ratio of 2:1 since its 2011 AGM in late Mar 2011.

      MSN: Since the beginning of 2011, the PER of MSN has been fluctuated significantly in an uptrend for the most of the year. This movement is driven by some specific events while MSN‟s financial performance is not spectacular. 9M11‟s net profit accounted for only 57% of year target. In May 2011, KKR purchased a 10% stake of MSC (Masan Consumer) at the price of VND 220,000 per share which was 47% higher than its current market price at that time. This deal supported MSN‟s price in May 2011.
      In early September the PER increased from 29.77x to 43.96x thanks to the inclusion of MSN as a new constituent in FTSE Vietnam Index since 19 September 2011.

      Grüße
      TC
      1 Antwort

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      Avatar
      schrieb am 03.12.11 13:44:29
      Beitrag Nr. 72 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.433.875 von tantalos11 am 03.12.11 11:06:40Ich habe mir mal wieder auf der Seite der Deutschen Bank die Top-Werte des ETF angeschaut:

      http://www.etf.db.com/DE/DEU/ETF/LU0322252924/DBX1AG/FTSE_VI…

      Die TOP 3 sind:

      Masan Gr.: 18,87%
      Vincom: 12,25%
      HAGL Joint Stock Co: 7,24%


      Masan, die Beteiligungen im Konsumgüterbereich halten, haben angeblich ein KGV von 18,9 (http://stoxplus.com/stoxpage/stoxpage.asp?MenuID=4&subMenuID…).

      Vincom hat ein KGV von 12,4 und HAGL eines von 5,7. Das sind für Vietnam eher hohe KGV's, wenn man diese Liste mal durchblättert:

      http://stoxplus.com/market_data.asp?action=cptv&san=0&cptvID…

      Ich weiß natürlich nicht, wie aktuell und genau die dortigen Daten sind. Die dortige Seite mit dem Gesamt-KGV des VNI ist leider veraltet.

      Masan jedenfalls hat eine Marketcap von 64 Billionen VND (ca. 2,3 Mrd Euro oder 3 Mrd. USD). Die Umsätze in Q3/2011 waren 1,4 Bil. VND. Der Gewinn betrug ca. 0,55 Bil. VND. In Q4/2010 lag der Gewinn noch bei 2,3 Bil. VND, daher vermutlich das KGV von 18,9. In 2011 werden insgesamt höchstens 2 Bil. VND rauskommen, das KGV liegt also eher bei über 30.
      Masan ist zudem gegenüber dem Jahresanfang schon sehr gut gelaufen, nur zuletzt stark zurückgekommen.

      Hier noch der Link zu Masan's Website:

      http://masangroup.com/en/investor-center/financial-informati…

      Vermutlich müsste man sich doch mal die Mühe machen, die einzelnen Aktien zu recherchieren. Viel lieber würde ich allerdings in die Aktien selber statt in einen ETF investieren, aber ich kenne keinen Broker, mit dem man an der Börse in Saigon handeln kann. Masan würde ich allerdings nicht kaufen.
      5 Antworten
      Avatar
      schrieb am 03.12.11 11:06:40
      Beitrag Nr. 71 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.432.886 von jameslabrie am 02.12.11 21:06:42Naja mal abwarten aber im Moment ist so bei 15 eh mal ein Widerstand. Mal sehen ob der hält weil irgendwann sollte ja stopp sein, den ein bißchen was wert sollten die Unternehmen dort doch sein.
      6 Antworten
      Avatar
      schrieb am 02.12.11 21:06:42
      Beitrag Nr. 70 ()
      ;)naechster nk bei 14,4.sparplan a 50E ohne gebuehren bis zur rente 2020
      7 Antworten
      Avatar
      schrieb am 30.11.11 21:01:31
      Beitrag Nr. 69 ()
      Die Inflation ist leider nicht besser geworden:

      http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=622&ItemID=12058

      Für 11/2011 (in Klammern die Werte für 10/2011 gegen die analogen Monate) wurde ermittelt:

      gg. 11/2010: 19,83% (21,59%)
      gg. 12/2010: 17,5% (17,05%)
      gg. 10/2011: 0,39% (0,36%)

      Das Ziel von 18% für 2011 kann wohl erreicht werden:

      http://vietnambusiness.asia/vietnam%e2%80%99s-inflation-for-…
      Avatar
      schrieb am 30.11.11 08:32:38
      Beitrag Nr. 68 ()
      Leider ist noch immer kein Boden in Sicht. Der Vietnam hat soviel Aufholpotential, da sollten die Börsen eigentlich explodieren anstatt so ab zu sacken. Naja auf der Seite stehen und warten bis der Boden gefunden ist.
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      Einstieg in Vietnam - jetzt oder nie!