American Superconductor AMSC (Seite 27)

[Hoffnungstraeger]

was für ein mieser laden , gibt es denn keine gute grüne aktie aus den usa ??

[alpenmaradona]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 41.353.243 von KingofCurrywurst am 12.04.11 11:14:32

Rechnung gestelltes wurde schlicht als Zahlung dargestellt.

Kannst Du mir für diese Aussage bitte den entsprechenden Textabschnitt aus der AMSC Meldung heraussuchen. Habe ich bisher nicht gefunden.

EIn paar Rechnungen muss Sinovel aber schon bezahlt haben, sonst hätte der operative CF ganz anders aussehen müssen. Das bei einem Kunden auch mal einzelne Forderungen offen bleiben kann auch an den Verträgen hängen - für das Engineering hat AMSC vielleicht Milestones als Zahlungszeitpunkte,....

Ich glaube auch, dass AMSC schon überrascht war von dem Verhalten. Das Management genießt bei mir noch immer 100 % Vertrauen. Der CEO und Gründer von AMSC hätte doch von Falschdarstellungen nichts gehabt, außerdem ist er für sowas viel zu schlau!

[KingofCurrywurst]

Naja, festzuhalten bleibt, was am 1. Februar mit Getoese verkuendet wurde entsprach - fuer AMSC bekannt - nicht der Wahrheit. In Rechnung gestelltes wurde schlicht als Zahlung dargestellt.
Die Abhaengigkeit von Sinovel ist selbst nach Darstellung von AMSC so gross, dass Sinovel nicht wirklich zittern muss.
Rosen ist relativ erfolgreich mit Sammelklagen, die haben AMSC von sich aus auf ihre Liste gesetzt. So eine Firma versaut sich nicht ihren "track record", d.h. die sehen wohl sehr gute Erfolgschancen.
AMSC hat dotcom ueberlebt, von daher ist Bude vielleicht wirklich nicht der richtige Begriff, trotzdem, die Meldungen vom 1.2. und 5.4. passen nicht zueinander. Selbst fuer Q2 sind noch Posten offen, das wurde so nie dargestellt.

[kaktus7]

Zitat von KingofCurrywurst: Die Firma duerfte platt sein. Es geht doch nichtmal um die extreme Abhaengigkeit von einem Kunden oder eine momentane Flaute.

Richtig bitter/kriminell war das Timing. Hauen eine Gewinnprognose zum GJ 2010 raus obwohl da noch massiv offene Posten bestehen. Kann mir niemand erzaehlen, dass das alles so unerwartet kam. Das der Kurs nicht so recht in die Gaenge kam spricht doch auch dafuer, dass massiv abgeladen wurde, in den Wochen vor der ach so unerwarteten "Annahmeverweigerung". Die dann auch mit der Zahlungsverweigerung fuer alte LL einher ging. Sehr obskur, die Bude.

Ich glaube schon, dass AMSC selbst überrascht war. Schließlich handelt es um einen langjährigen Kunden. Und, wenn ich alles richtig kapiert habe, ist die Zahlung und weitere Auslieferungen nur aufgeschoben. Dazu kommt, dass sie auch andere Kunden haben. und weitere dazugewinnen wollen.
"Kaufe, wenn die Kanonen donnern"
Als "Bude" würde ich diese Firma auch nicht bezeichnen.

[KingofCurrywurst]

Der Insider ist uebrigens kein Insider im engeren Sinn, sondern Grossaktionaer. Haette der nicht die 3 Millionen aufgesaugt waere die $10-Marke wohl mit absoluter Sicherheit gefallen. Mr. Douglas operiert zwar mit goresseren Summen als unsereins, ist vorm Griff ins Klo aber auch nicht gefeit.

[KingofCurrywurst]

Die Firma duerfte platt sein. Es geht doch nichtmal um die extreme Abhaengigkeit von einem Kunden oder eine momentane Flaute.

Richtig bitter/kriminell war das Timing. Hauen eine Gewinnprognose zum GJ 2010 raus obwohl da noch massiv offene Posten bestehen. Kann mir niemand erzaehlen, dass das alles so unerwartet kam. Das der Kurs nicht so recht in die Gaenge kam spricht doch auch dafuer, dass massiv abgeladen wurde, in den Wochen vor der ach so unerwarteten "Annahmeverweigerung". Die dann auch mit der Zahlungsverweigerung fuer alte LL einher ging. Sehr obskur, die Bude.

[kaktus7]

Habe kräftig nachgelegt und verbilligt.
Ich finde den Rückschlag stark übertrieben.

Der Insider der Ständig kauft, anschienend auch.

Ich glaube auch, dass die Offshore Windkraft in USA selbst jetzt (Fukushima) schneller ind die Gänge kommt.

[alpenmaradona]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 41.154.270 von LuciusVorenus am 06.03.11 12:00:35

Schöner Auftrag. Mit Sinovel hat auch zunächst klein angefangen und irgendwann kam plötzlich der fette Mega Auftrag. DTC wird bestimmt bald nachlegen!

[LuciusVorenus]

AMSC Receives Initial Electrical Control System Orders from China's Dongfang Turbine Co.
Visit http://www.amsc.com for further information

- China’s Third Largest Wind Turbine Manufacturer Orders First 3 MW and 5 MW Electrical Control Systems - Multi-Megawatt Turbines Position Dongfang Strongly for Onshore and Offshore Wind Market

Submitted on 03/02/11, 08:18 AM

DEVENS, MA – March 2, 2011 – American Superconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: AMSC), a global power technologies company, today announced that it has received initial wind turbine electrical control system orders from China’s Dongfang Turbine Co. Ltd. (DTC). The systems will be utilized in DTC’s 3 megawatt (MW) and 5 MW full conversion wind turbines, which were designed by and jointly developed with AMSC. AMSC will be shipping the electrical control systems to DTC in calendar year 2011. DTC, the third largest wind turbine manufacturer in China and one of the world’s 10 largest wind turbine manufacturers, plans to begin volume shipments of these multi-megawatt wind turbines in 2012.

“With more than 5,000 MW of cumulative installations, DTC has firmly established itself as a world-class wind turbine manufacturer. To maintain this position of leadership, we are launching new multi-megawatt wind turbines with exceptional power quality and grid friendliness,” said Mr. Ren Jiafu, Vice General Manager, Dongfang Turbine Co. “We look forward to utilizing these electrical control systems from AMSC to manufacture our first 3 MW and 5 MW wind turbines while also exploring options to upgrade the 5 MW to 5.5 MW, and plan to begin making volume shipments in 2012.”

China is now the world’s largest wind power market both in terms of annual installations and total installations to date. According to the Global Wind Energy Council, China installed a record 16,500 MW of wind power in 2010, increasing its total installed capacity to more than 42,000 MW.

“A powerhouse in China’s growing wind power market, DTC has partnered with AMSC to introduce its next-generation wind turbines,” said Greg Yurek, founder and chief executive officer of AMSC. “Having been designed for use both on land and at sea, DTC’s 3 MW wind turbine has broad applicability while its 5 MW turbine is particularly well suited for the global offshore wind market. We are pleased to receive these initial orders and are happy to support DTC as they launch these advanced wind turbine platforms.”

For more information on AMSC’s offerings for the wind power market visit http://www.amsc.com/products/applications/windEnergy/index.html.

[kaktus7]

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Two Stocks Seeing Insider Buying Despite Bearish Crossovers

The following is a list of two stocks that have seen the SMA50 move below the SMA200 (a bearish momentum signal called the "Death Cross"#.

In addition, these two companies have, on average, seen more insider buying than insider selling over the last two years #excluding exercised options#. For each company we'll list the average number of shares purchased by insiders on the open market over the last two years.

Is the market underestimating these names? Insiders seem to think so. Use this list as a starting point for your own analysis.

Insider data sourced from Fidelity, short float and performance data sourced from Finviz.

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American Superconductor: Strong Earnings, Outlook Suggest Continued Share Price Recovery

American Superconductor (AMSC) has recently languished – falling from its October high of just over $38 to Monday’s close of $27.27 – a decline of almost 30%. This partly reflected AMSC’s decision to access the secondary market late last year – but also reflected increasing concerns over its heavy reliance on Sinovel (601558.SS), its main customer, and its resultant exposure to bottlenecks in the Chinese wind market. Yesterday’s earnings (see conference call transcript here) addressed these concerns on a number of levels and suggest that AMSC’s share price will continue to recover.

American Superconductor licenses wind turbine designs, provides the related electrical control systems and is increasingly developing a business in Smart Grid integration systems and superconductor transmission lines.

The company saw third quarter revenues grow 42% on the year in Q3 to $114.2m. This produced net income of $16m or 33 cents per diluted share compared to 11 cents in the third quarter of FY 2009. On a non-GAAP basis those numbers were 40 cents and 20 cents.

Moreover, AMSC raised forward guidance and now expects FY 2010 to produce net income of $0.99 to $1.04 per share – against previous guidance of $0.95 to $1.00 and analyst expectations of $0.95 according to Bloomberg’s analyst survey. In terms of long-term prospects, AMSC has been targeting $1bn in revenues with an operating margin of greater than 20% by 2015. They now believe that they can make that target by 2014.

This obviously implies a solid medium-term outlook for net income – and AMSC appears to have the ability to make those targets in an environment where renewable energy continues to be built out globally. Moreover, their recent stock offering has left them with $260.5m of cash on hand for an investment schedule which looks to be around $50m a year. CEO Greg Yurek stresses that since they don’t manufacture the wind turbines themselves they face a low capital intensity, high value added environment. It seems reasonable to conclude that they now have the funds in place to deliver the investment required to meet the $1bn revenue target. If you accept their ability to achieve that target there is clearly a lot of upset for the stock.

These numbers are difficult to argue with and I would expect some analyst upgrades over the next 24 hours. That leaves us with the question of AMSC’s over-reliance on orders from Sinovel and concerns about bottlenecks in China’s wind turbine market. The issue here is that China has rapidly built out its wind turbine capacity – but at a much faster rate than it has been able to connect that capacity to the grid. This is true. However, for AMSC this seems largely to be a red herring and is unlikely to slow growth in its order book.

Five points are relevant –

•Greg Yurek suggests that about 25% of China’s wind turbine installations were not connected to the grid in 2010. However, the Chinese now appear to be moving faster to resolve the situation. Moreover, the continued build out of wind is locked into China’s five year plan – consequently, he does not expect new wind turbine construction to falter. This is particularly the case since China has the objective of being a net exporter of wind technology in the years to come. And Sinovel will be the major export player – largely using AMSC’s electrical control systems.
•In Q3 Sinovel accounted for 73% of AMSC’s new orders. However, the company has been adding new customers – for example in India with recent deals with Inox Wind (IWL). They also see Brazil as a new growth opportunity, particularly given the fact that the country currently has no domestic wind turbine manufacturer. And they expect to benefit from the roll-out of more wind capacity in the US – mainly through foreign clients entering the US market. However, Greg Yurek also hinted on the analyst call that a deal with a US player is possible.
•Most importantly, the non-wind contribution to AMSC’s revenues is expected to grow significantly. This relates to their Smart Grid infrastructure solutions and particularly their Amperium superconductor power cables which represent a key technology in the roll-out of the Smart Grid. Initial superconductor cable systems are already in place in Ohio and Long Island. AMSC has also recently secured an order for 3 million meters of Amperium superconductor wires from South Korea’s LS Cable – currently the world’s largest superconductor wire order.
•With regard to AMSC’s $1bn revenue target by 2014, only 50% of that is expected to be directly related to their wind business. They appear confident in seeing superconductor cables as being their strongest growth area.
American Superconductor’s stock price languished for most of 2010 despite good earnings growth and suffered in the later part of the year on concerns over China’s wind market. However, AMSC’s earnings have only strengthened and concerns over the continued build out of wind capacity in China seem overdone. Following the earnings numbers AMSC has already rallied. However, that rally looks likely to continue and AMSC looks to be a solid medium-term bet.

Disclosure: I am long AMSC.