Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.:
42.159.376 von Popeye82 am 01.10.11
20:38:11
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West African Iron Ore Update (WAI,
TSXV)
In conversations I have had with seasoned stock investment pros
over the last few weeks, the common theme of the discussion is that
“I’ve never seen the market so bad.”
When it comes to my specialty, small cap mining venture stocks, I
must agree.
However, this isn’t all doom and gloom. As the well known Chinese
saying goes, “Crisis = Danger and Opportunity.”
The world’s economic crisis is well documented in the news every
week as are the associated dangers. So rather than dwell on the
obvious, let’s instead look at the opportunity.
First let’s recap the general state of the small cap venture
market. It is obvious that the speculative premium given to most
junior mining stocks is zero. In a good market, investors will bid
up the price of stocks as they see the potential of that company
making a discovery or building a mine. Not so today.
The vast majority of junior stocks are trading well below their
initial private placement financing prices. In fact many are
trading like shell companies – those with no projects at all –
trading for pennies with no value given to the multi millions those
projects may have received in exploration and development. And
therein is the opportunity.
We have a number of great junior companies we are following that
have enormous potential but are getting zero respect in the
market.
I’ve been saying for years that the objective on Winston’s Growth
Stock Report is to find stocks with triple digit return potential.
Today, I am looking at the price of some of these stocks and
thinking, wow – there’s potential for getting 10 baggers here.
That’s 10 times your money in return.
My strategy is the same as always. The criteria is to find stocks
with a high potential mining property, excellent management, and
the financing in place to get the project to actual production or
at least to the stage where the project can be sold off to a blue
chip company.
Today I see a great bottom fishing opportunity with one such
company that we’ve been following since May - West African Iron Ore
(WAI:TSX.V). Now trading at around 10 cents the upside potential is
enormous.
Summary
WAI is an early stage iron ore exploration company working in
Guinea, West Africa. This is an area of the world where iron ore
mining will become a major contributor to that country’s GDP. Three
blue chip mining companies are operating there including Rio Tinto,
who is developing not only a mine but a rail line which will run
across WAI’s property.
Historical data suggests that WAI could be sitting on a sizable
deposit. Their lead Forécariah Project has been given a projected
deposit size of between 2.9 – 5.1 billion tonnes. The plan now is
to verify that they do indeed have an economic deposit. To that
end, they are now awaiting the results of their Phase I drilling
program. Sometime this fall about 50 drill holes in all will be
completed leading the way for their first compliant inferred
resource estimate.
So far the results of the Phase I drilling are limited to just
three holes from the Sambalama prospect, one of which crumpled into
powder so its core couldn’t be analysed. The other two holes looked
promising.
Two key observations can be drawn from these two holes. One is that
they are very high grade and two, they are close to surface. Hole
SAM002 started at just 2.28 meters from surface and returned 11.47
m grading 63.18% Fe. Hole SAM003 started right from surface and
returned 8.20 m grading 68.65% Fe.
Being close to surface means mining costs are extremely low; a
backhoe could easily extract the ore. The grading of the ore from
these two holes is so high that it would be classified as DSO or
Direct Shipping Ore that could be sold to the end user without
further processing.
That’s a decent start. The mineralized strike length at Sambalama
would suggest perhaps 800 meters at this point however more infill
drilling will be needed to confirm the continuity of the
strike.
The Phase I drilling plan included 17 diamond drill holes totalling
5100 meters and 34 Reverse Circulation drill holes covering 10,200
m. It’s these RC holes that should be most interesting as the
diamond holes, as in SAM001, had trouble attaining an intact core
sample to analyze.
A Phase II program will be initiated based on Phase I results with
a planned budget of $10 M, estimated to be completed by April of
2012.
China
As I mentioned in my initial report, China is the driving force
behind world’s iron ore demand which is estimated to be growing by
10% per year. China, the world’s largest iron ore consumer,
imported 618 million tons of iron ore last year, and most of that
was supplied by global miners BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale, all
of whom operate in Guinea.
Beijing has indicated they want to secure their iron ore sources
themselves by investing in mining projects like those found in West
Africa, where they have established some deals already. Their deals
in West Africa could produce nearly 250 million tons of ore
annually in the medium- to long-term.
The Chinese government has stated they have a goal of being self
sufficient in iron ore by 2015 which seems like an improbable
timeline, however it does speak volumes about their intention to
acquire projects.
This is where the expertise of WAI’s CEO, Guy Duport, comes into
play. As I stated in my earlier report, “Guy is a rather unique
individual having a Masters degree in European commercial law, is a
member of the Society for Mining Metallurgy and Exploration in
Colorado, has consulting offices in Hong Kong and Beijing where he
is fluent in Chinese, and has close political ties with the leaders
in Guinea. You would be hard pressed to find a more perfect man to
run an up and coming iron ore company in Guinea where the ultimate
buyers are likely Chinese.”
Infrastructure
The Forécariah property is just 90 Km east of the capital city of
Conakry and has good road access. Rio Tinto is currently developing
a mine in Guinea with a proposed rail line which crosses over the
Forécariah project. Guy Duport hypothesized that WAI could perhaps
hook in to that rail line which would be a huge coup for the
company. However the close location to the shore provides the
opportunity for a belt system to be used to transport the ore to a
deep water port.
As an interesting aside, and to demonstrate China’s eagerness for
iron ore, last year the Chinese announced they would invest US$2.7
billion in a 286 km railway and in port facilities in return for
100% off take of Bellzone Mining’s (BZM, LSE) ore. Again, a deal
with the Chinese to piggy back their rail and port facilities are
ideas which Duport is considering. This is where his language and
Asian business presence comes into play.
According to a Bellzone press release dated July 4th, 2011 “Route
of the first 74km of the railway from the proposed port of Matakan
to Moussaya has been agreed in principle with the Government.”
The Matakang Deep Sea Port is 40 km from WAI’s main targets such as
Sambalama and Kalyadi.
Conclusion
With WAI trading at around 10 cents, it represents a good bottom
fishing opportunity. The company is trading close to cash value
where they will have $ 6-7 million in the bank once the Phase I
drill program is complete.
The true potential of this stock won’t be clear until a 43-101
resource calculation is completed. We can expect to see an initial
43-101 out by late Q4 or early Q1.
Over the coming months, if the drilling proves WAI has an economic
deposit, the possibility of a buyout by the Chinese would be
realistic. Since the Chinese already have a high interest in buying
iron ore projects and are already active in Guinea, the potential
for a 10 bagger seems very possible.
This project has phenomenal infrastructure, very close to the port
and rail, which makes the economics of high grade DSO surface iron
ore deposit very attractive.
Accumulate as a possible 10 bagger. "