WesternZagros - Öl in Kurdistan - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[snafur]

Den heutigen operationellen Update nehme ich mal als Anlass, um hier im Öl- und Gasstocks Forum einen Thread zu eröffnen.

Wer spekulativ in Kurdistan investieren will, sollte sich mal WesternZagros ansehen. Hat meiner Meinung nach übermässig stark gelitten und ist IMHO im Vergleich unterbewertet.

Ich bin die Tage mit einer ersten Position eingestiegen, rechne ich doch im Laufe des Jahres mit einer Lösung des Streits zwischen der KRG und der irakischen Zentralregierung um die Öl- und Gaslizenzen.

WZR hat schon produziert, durch die Streiterei und den aktuellen Exportstopp kurdischen Öls durch den Irak steht die Produktion aber aktuell still.

Resourcen sind auf WZR Gebiet mehr als genug vorhanden, siehe letze News mit erheblich gesteigerten Resourcenschätzungen.

Partner auf den beiden Lizenzen sind mit Gazprom Neft, dem Ölarm von Gazprom und Talisman auch keine Leichtgewichte.

Homepage: http://www.westernzagros.com/
Neueste Präsentation (Januar 2013): http://www.westernzagros.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2013…

Chart (CAD):



WesternZagros Spuds Kurdamir-3 Well; Provides Operational Update

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Feb. 25, 2013) -

WesternZagros Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:WZR) ("WesternZagros" or "the Company") has spudded the latest well of its extensive exploration and appraisal program in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Drilling began on the Kurdamir-3 appraisal well on the Kurdamir Block on February 22, 2013. 3D seismic surveys are also underway on both the Kurdamir and Garmian Blocks, and preparations are progressing for the three wells on the Garmian Block planned for 2013.

Simon Hatfield, CEO of WesternZagros commented,

"2013 promises to be an exciting, transformational year for the Company. We are actively delineating our two major discoveries at Sarqala and Kurdamir and also pursuing high-impact step-out exploration on our Baram and Hasira prospects."

KURDAMIR BLOCK (Operated by Talisman (Block K44) B.V.)

Kurdamir-3 Appraisal Well

Drilling operations have begun at the Kurdamir-3 appraisal well on the giant Kurdamir Discovery. The well was spudded on February 22, 2013. The well is expected to take approximately four months to reach the planned total depth of 2,800 metres. The Company expects the gross costs of drilling and testing operations to be $50 million.

The Kurdamir-3 well is being drilled on the southwest flank of the Kurdamir structure approximately three kilometers and five kilometers from the Company's Kurdamir-1 and Kurdamir-2 discovery wells respectively. Kurdamir-3 will further appraise the extent of the oil leg in the Oligocene interval previously encountered in the Kurdamir 1 and 2 wells.

Kurdamir 3D Seismic Survey

This survey started in January, 2013 and is expected to be completed early in the third quarter of 2013. The survey encompasses 184 square kilometres on the Kurdamir Block and also extends into the neighbouring Topkhana Block in order to define more clearly the areal extent of the Oligocene, Eocene and Cretaceous reservoirs. The data from this survey will be used to decide on future appraisal well locations and refine resource assessments of the existing discovery.

GARMIAN BLOCK (Operated by WesternZagros)

South Garmian 2D and 3D Seismic Survey

This survey, which is over 50 percent complete, encompasses 325 square kilometers and covers the Sarqala and Mil Qasim discoveries and the Zardi Complex prospect in the southern portion of the Garmian Block. The survey was started on November 1, 2012 and includes four 2D seismic lines that have been acquired over the Chwar prospect. Processing and interpretation of the seismic data is underway and will be used in the appraisal of Sarqala and Mil Qasim and in identifying exploration targets for 2014. This survey is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2013.

Hasira-1 Exploration and Appraisal Well

The Hasira-1 well, is planned to spud early in the second quarter of 2013, in order to appraise the extent of the oil leg previously encountered in the Jeribe reservoir at Sarqala-1 and also to explore the Oligocene reservoir beneath the Jeribe. Significant oil shows were encountered in the Oligocene interval at Sarqala-1 but the Company was unable to evaluate them due to wellbore conditions. Hasira-1 is expected to take approximately seven months to drill to a planned total depth of 4,100 metres. The drilling rig is currently being prepared in North America for deployment to the Kurdistan Region. The gross costs of drilling and testing operations at Hasira-1 are expected to be $60 million.

Baram-1 Exloration Well

The Baram-1 well, is planned to spud in the third quarter of 2013, in order to explore a potential extension of the oil leg in the Oligocene reservoir of the Kurdamir discovery into the Garmian Block. WesternZagros expects the well to take approximately five months to reach the planned total depth of 3,800 metres. An additional drilling rig is also currently being prepared in North America. The Company expects the gross costs of drilling and testing operations to be $55 million. The Company believes that this well has the potential to also prove up significant additional gross contingent oil resources on the Kurdamir Block if the Baram-1 drilling results support the Company's interpretation that the Baram structure is a potential extension of the Kurdamir discovery.

The completion of either Baram-1 or Hasira-1 in 2013 would fulfill the Company's obligations under the second exploration sub-period of the Garmian PSC, prior to any extension of such sub-period.

Upper Bakhtiari Three-Well Drilling Program

This program is to explore the potential of the shallow (500 to 700 metres depth) Upper Bakhtiari formation in the southern part of the Garmian Block through a low cost, three well drilling program. The Company plans to spud the first well in the second quarter of 2013 subject to the availability of a drilling rig in Kurdistan.

About WesternZagros Resources Ltd.

WesternZagros is an international natural resources company engaged in acquiring properties and exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas in Iraq. WesternZagros, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, holds a working interest in each of the Garmian Block and Kurdamir Block Production Sharing Contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. WesternZagros is the operator and holds a 40 percent interest in the Garmian Contract Area. Gazprom Neft Middle East B.V. ("Gazprom Neft") and the KRG hold 40 percent and 20 percent working interests respectively. WesternZagros also holds a 40 percent interest in the Kurdamir Contract Area. Talisman (Block K44) B.V., as the operator, holds a 40 percent interest and the KRG hold the remaining 20 percent working interest. WesternZagros funds 60 percent of costs on the Kurdamir Block and 50 percent of the costs on the Garmian Block. WesternZagros's shares trade in Canada on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "WZR".

[snafur]

Gazprom Neft, der Ölarm von Gazprom und 5. größter Russischer Erdölproduzent erweitert sein Engagement in Kurdistan.

(Gazprom Neft ist auch mit 40% an WesternZagros' Garmian Block beteiligt)

Jetzt steigen sie mit 80% beim Halabja Projekt ein, ihr drittes großes Engagement in der Gegend.

Die Russen scheinen also zuversichtlich zu sein, das die bestehenden Reibereien zwischen KRG und der irakischen Zentralregierung bald beigelegt werden.

Sie riskieren dabei immerhin ihre Beteiligungen im Irak am Badra Feld.
Ein Gigant von 3 Milliarden Barrel, an dem Gazprom Neft 30% hält.

Hier die Meldung, die heute über die Ticker läuft:

Russia’s Gazprom Neft is reported to have acquired its third exploration block in Iraqi Kurdistan, defying Baghdad’s opposition to such deals with the semi-autonomous northern region.

The oil production arm of gas giant Gazprom has secured an 80% operating stake in the Halabja project, with reserves estimated at between 630 million and 790 million barrels, Russian newswire Interfax reported on Tuesday.

"We are the operators of the project. Our immediate task is to map out an exploration and research programme. Investments have not been defined yet. The exploration period will last seven years," Gazprom Neft’s deputy chief executive Vadim Yakovlev was quoted as saying.

Last week, Masoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), said Gazprom Neft had signed new agreements with the KRG, without disclosing details.

The company acquired interests in two other Kurdistan blocks - Garmian and Shakal – last August, following similar deals struck with international oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Total and Chevron that the Iraqi government deems illegal.

Gazprom Neft risks incurring the wrath of the Baghdad regime as it seeks to develop the Iraq-controlled Badra oilfield, with reserves of around 3 billion barrels, that is due to come on stream in 2017.

The federal government reportedly sent an ultimatum to the Russian company last November warning that it could lose its 30% operated stake in the field unless it pulled out of Kurdistan.

Iraq has meeted out similar treatment to other players such as Total and ExxonMobil.

However, Yakovlev said Gazprom Neft has not been notified by the Iraqi government of any wrongdoing.

Production sharing contracts being offered by Kurdistan to develop its prospective acreage are seen as more lucrative by foreign players than technical service deals on offer in Iraq as they gain a greater share of oil revenue.

However, Baghdad denies that the KRG has the right to sign such deals under Iraq’s constitution, which has led to Iraq withholding export payments to foreign producers in Kurdistan in the ongoing dispute over territorial rights and resource sovereignty.

(Quelle: http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1318377.ece)

[snafur]

Gutes Geschäft für beide Seiten:

2013-03-11 06:02 ET - News Release

Mr. Greg Stevenson reports

WESTERNZAGROS SECURES $123 MILLION FINANCING FROM CREST ENERGY INTERNATIONAL

WesternZagros Resources Ltd. has entered into an investment agreement with Crest Energy International LLC. Under the Investment Agreement, Crest will purchase, through a non-brokered private placement, 51,000,000 Common Shares in the Company at $1.25 per share for gross proceeds of $63.75 million (the "Private Placement"). This price represents an approximate 25 percent premium to the March 8, 2013 closing share price of $1.00. Crest currently holds 9.9% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares and following completion of the Private Placement will hold approximately 19.8%.

In addition, WesternZagros and Crest have entered into a senior secured loan agreement (the "Loan Agreement") pursuant to which Crest has agreed to loan to WesternZagros US$57.5 million (approx. $59.2 million) (the "Loan"). The Loan will accrue interest at the rate of 6 percent per annum and will be secured by 10 percent of the outstanding shares of WesternZagros's operating subsidiary. The Loan, together with all accrued interest, is to be repaid in full on the last day of the 18th calendar month following the month in which funding of the Loan occurs, subject to certain prepayment terms, including but not limited to a partial repayment obligation in the event of a future equity offering by the Company or following the occurrence of an event of default.

The proceeds from the Private Placement and the Loan will be used for WesternZagros's 2013 capital and operating program pursuant to which the Company will focus on the continued appraisal of the Kurdamir Oligocene discovery, exploration activities on the Garmian Block and continued appraisal of the existing Sarqala discovery.

Completion of the Private Placement and the Loan are subject to certain conditions. The Company expects the closing to occur on or before March 18, 2013. The Common Shares issued under the Investment Agreement will be subject to a hold period until the date which is four months from closing.

Pursuant to the Investment Agreement, Crest will continue to have certain rights to participate for its pro-rata share in future equity issuances by the Company. In addition, upon completion of the Private Placement, Crest will have the right to appoint an additional nominee to the Company's Board of Directors. Eric Stoerr, an officer of Crest, has been a member of the Board since August 2012.

RBC Capital Markets acted as financial advisor to the Company on the Private Placement.

[snafur]

Ein langer Artikel, aber hochinteressant. Auch für andere Explorer in der Gegend. Ich persönlich glaube nicht daran, das hier ein Krieg droht.


The diplomatic war of independence between Iraq and Kurdistan is escalating.

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By Jen Alic
Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin

Iraq - Kurdistan's billion-barrel oil investment
Thursday, March 28, 2013

The diplomatic war of independence between Iraq and its northern region Kurdistan is escalating rapidly, with the flashpoint for armed conflict being the Kirkuk oilfield on the boundary between the two sides. While both sides have pulled back some of their troops poised for conflict recently, 2014 could be decisive as Iraqi Kurdistan plans to ramp up exports directly to Turkey, bypassing Baghdad. Neither side wants an armed conflict, but the momentum may be irreversible.

Which makes it surprising that junior Kurdistan explorer WesternZagros, (WZR-TSXv) hasn’t seen their stock impacted at all—in fact, they just raised over $100 million at a premium to develop their oil assets only kilometers away from Kirkuk.

The question moving forward is whether small companies like WesternZagros will be able to survive a potential war with their frontline assets intact, or whether they will look to cash in on some impressive exploration success and let the majors take the heat.

The Prize is huge—WesternZagros has 1 billion barrels in reserves already, but step-out drilling on their Kurdamir asset could prove the field up to between 10-20 billion barrels.

That trumps the increasing political risk—even when that risk could be an all-out armed conflict over Kurdish independence.

The biggest confirmation of this is the $123 million investment WZR secured earlier this month from Houston-based Crest Energy International.

The deal gives Crest 51,000,000 common shares in WZR, or about 19.8% of the company. For another 10% of outstanding shares in a secured loan agreement, Crest will also loan WZR $57.5 million to further exploration and development activities in Kurdistan.

Exactly what has spurred this massive investment optimism? It’s a combination of drilling success and geopolitical forecasting.

Iraqi Kurdistan Oil - Area Map
In terms of drilling success, two major discoveries at Sarqala and Kurdamir in southern Kurdistan late last year have quadrupled WesternZagros’ reserves to 1 billion barrels. Now it’s got the capital to fast-track the delineation of these discoveries. That’s already happening:

In late February, WZR spudded its Kurdamir-3 appraisal well.
3 more wells will be drilled this year in the Garmian block.
High-impact exploration is about to get underway in the Baram and Hasira prospects.
Baram-1 could prove to extend Kurdamir discovery into the Garmian block—making it one of the world’s largest.

In terms of geopolitics, a bit of digging around into Crest paints an interesting picture. The US supermajors maintain a strong interest in Iraq’s non-Kurdish oil holdings, so Washington isn’t keen to prop up the Kurds against Baghdad and ignite an armed conflict for Kurdish independence. But private actors see things differently. Crest is run by a Syrian Christian who has Republican backing and a keen interest in seeing WesternZagros make good on its finds. Like all the other players on the Iraqi Kurdistan scene, Crest is hedging its bets that the Kurds have the upper hand here.

Europe and Turkey agree, and they are homing in on Kurdish oil and gas—as Europe is desperate for supplies and Turkey aspires to become a major energy hub that bridges the Middle East and Europe.

The Latest Escalation–Budgetary Warfare

Baghdad has refused to pay outstanding debt for exports of KRG-produced oil through pipelines controlled by the central government since May 2011.

Baghdad is refusing to pay up because the KRG has been cutting unilateral deals with foreign oil companies (ExxonMobil, Total, Chevron) and attempting to export oil and gas directly to Turkey, bypassing the central government.

The Kurds are cutting Baghdad out of the equation because they need refined oil products; but the move also inches them towards independence. The KRG and Turkey initiated direct crude swaps in return for refined oil products when they were cut off from Iraqi funding.

It’s a tit-for-tat game that has seen Baghdad threaten to revoke the licenses of the supermajors who have had the bravado to strike unilateral deals with KRG and the KRG cut off exports to Baghdad.

Baghdad’s latest maneuver was to nearly cut the Kurds out of the federal budget. The $119 million budget for 2013 was passed on 7 March. The Kurds only got $646 million of the $3.5 billion they requested.

Not only does Baghdad still owe some $3.5 billion to foreign companies operating in the KRG for PAST exports, the new budget means the Kurds can only cover about two months of new crude payments to foreign companies.

So even if production is ramped up in Iraqi Kurdistan, the only way to pay for it will be to ensure direct access to Turkey.

For WesternZagros it’s not an issue—for now. The Company has not declared commerciality, and when it has produced, it has been on the basis of extended well testing.

WZR Investor Relations Manager Lisa Harriman told OGIB that the Iraqi budget was “very anti-Kurd”.

“The budget is one of the most anti-KRG documents to be produced by the Iraqi government – a clear result of the exclusion of the Kurds from the final deal-making. Though 17% of federal revenue is still allocated for monthly block transfers to the KRG, there are a number of punitive measures for the Kurds. Federal strategic expenses, including the military, keep getting larger every budget and, as the 17% monthly payments are calculated after these are deducted, Erbil’s share continues to shrink,” Harriman said.

That’s why the Kurds and the Turks are cautiously experimenting with trucked exports from Kurdistan to Turkey, independent of Baghdad.

From the Kurds point of view, they are in full compliance with the constitution. Certainly Baghdad has backed itself into a corner. By law, the Kurds are to receive 17% of ALL Iraqi oil export revenues. That’s a massive amount of money—much more than it would get by exporting to Turkey.

By refusing to pay up, and then largely cutting the Kurds out the budget, Baghdad has essentially removed one of the last carrots keeping Erbil in line. It’s easier to give up 17% when you’re not getting it anyway.

But there is one more thing keeping the Kurds from that game-changing move: They need to bring the strategically important city of Kirkuk under their control. Kirkuk is home to Iraq’s largest oil field and precariously nestled in the disputed territories right on the KRG’s border.

In this political melee, WesternZagros has one potential bulwark against Baghdad: Russia’s Gazprom Neft owns a 40% interest in WZR’s Garmian block, and Russia seems to privy to the favor of Baghdad of late. Gazprom’s involvement in Kurdistan is a strategic one for Russia, and could be leverage for Kurdistan in dealing with Baghdad.

Pipeline Warfare

Right now Kurdistan is racing to cut as many production deals as possible to ensure it has enough oil to supply a 200,000 bopd pipeline to Turkey that should be completed by 2014.

For now, this is where things stand:

In June 2012, the Kurds began trucking crude oil directly to Turkish refineries, with the refined product trucked back into the KRG. Turkish companies are also discussing energy swaps with the KRG that could see natural gas pumped from the KRG to Turkish power plants and electricity produced in Turkey channeled back to Iraqi Kurdistan.

Turkey’s Genel Energy is reportedly exporting around 20-30,000 bopd from Kurdistan’s TaqTaq field via truck directly to Mersin.

And there’s more of that to come: Genel is planning another pipeline to ramp up exports to Turkey by 2014.

This pipeline will link Iraqi Kurd oilfields directly to Turkey, but it could also tie in to the Baghdad-controlled Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline.

And there is also a plan in the works for a parallel pipeline that would supply several hundred million cubic feet of natural gas per day to Turkey annually by 2014. Turkey’s national oil company (TPAO) would be involved in this deal, under which it would acquire the rights to five exploration blocks in Iraqi Kurdistan.

(Late last year, Baghdad tried to “persuade” Turkey not to go down this road by kicking TPAO out of an oil contract with the Iraqi central government and handing it over to Kuwaiti Energy).

This deal hasn’t been finalized yet. The Turks are stalling a bit, and Iraqi officials are alleging that Ankara has promised not to go through with the deal. But again, Baghdad’s budget warfare will likely be the straw that breaks this camel’s back.

There is a northern gas pipeline currently under construction that leads directly to Turkey, and the KRG’s Minister of Natural Resources has said it could be converted to handle oil. The Kurds are actively seeking pumps to convert this now and this pipeline could handle 200,000 bopd and potentially be operational by mid-2013.

Bottom Line? This is the Definitive Year

With the game-changing pipeline set to come on line by 2014, Kurdistan is forcing Iraq to decide—and decide NOW—if diplomacy or war is the answer. These pipelines could represent the point of no return, giving Kurdistan its own royalties and the capital to be truly independent if it chooses that option.

As the definitive moment nears, WZR shareholders must decide—should they stay or should they go now? And how big is the window of opportunity.

Read more:
http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Iraq_Kurdistans_billionbarrel_oil_…

[Hadock]

Hallo,

heute gings steil bergab:

das ist der Grund: nicht kommerzielle Flow-Test

WesternZagros: Kurdamir testing reveals unexpected results
Friday, August 23, 2013 by Jamie Ashcroft

Two more test are now planned for upper zones in the reservoir

Two more test are now planned for upper zones in the reservoir

Kurdistan focussed WesternZagros (CVE:WZR) has revealed unexpected results from testing on the Kurdamir-3 well.

Two drill stem tests were carried out. The first flowed a non-commercial volume of oil as well as spent acid, the other encountered water at what the company believes to be either a transition zone or a oil-water contact.

The findings of the test are difficult to interpret, it said. Two more test are now planned for upper zones in the reservoir.

Kurdamir 3 follows two prior wells, both of which were successful.

"While these first two test results are not the best case scenario, we still have a large oil discovery with more work yet to be done to assess it fully," said chief executive Simon Hatfield.

He added: "Large oilfields like Kurdamir will often present some anomalies in the early stages of delineation, and this one is proving no exception.

"We were surprised by the water cut in DST #2 because we had seen evidence during drilling of oil throughout the interval.

"There are also unusual aspects to the position of the water across the four tested intervals in DST #2, so we are not yet certain whether we have found an oil-water contact that will be consistent across the reservoir, or a restricted compartment, sometimes known as perched water, within the oil reservoir.

"The next two tests of the shallower porous interval should provide a more indicative view on the oil deliverability of the reservoir."

[snafur]

Ja, leider die schönen Gewinne der letzten drei Monate wieder in Luft aufgelöst.
Ich bleibe aber dabei, IMHO eine sehr interessante Story. Wie der Chef sagt, bei so einem riesigen Feld gibt es hin und wieder unerwartete Ergebnisse, gerade am Anfang der Erforschung.

Einschätzung von RBC Capital Markets:

WesternZagros (WZR.V): Preliminary Kurdamir-3 Test Results Likely to Disappoint the Market

WesternZagros has this morning published the initial results from its Kurdamir-3 (WZR 40%) well test; we expect the news to disappoint the market. Although preliminary, the results appear to limit the size of the Kurdamir Oligocene accumulation and increase the risk with the nearby Baram (WZR 40%) prospect.

DST #1 produced only limited amounts of oil. DST #2 flowed oil at low rates with a water cut of 65%. The company's preliminary interpretation is that DST #2 may have spanned an oil-water contact or encountered a transition zone, increasing the risk associated with the prospective resources in the Kurdamir Oligocene reservoir and the Baram prospect.

Our C$2.71/share WesternZagros NAV includes C$2.25/share for the Kurdamir accumulation and C$0.16/share for the Baram prospect. The C$0.84/share contributed by the Kurdamir field's contingent resources may be unaffected by today's update; however, the risk associated with the remaining C$1.41/share has increased.

WesternZagros will host a conference call at 9.00 AM (EST): 416 340 8410 or 1 866 225 2055.

Quelle: https://www.rbcinsight.com/CM/Share/ResearchViewer/?SSS_2w%a…

[DJHLS]

Diese Nachricht http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-25/hayward-says-com…

zeigt m. E., dass die Türkei für die Autonome Region Kurdistan eigentlich wichtiger ist als der Restirak.

Jetzt gibt es einen pipeline-Zugang, mit dem Öl an Mittelmeerhäfen gebracht werden kann.

Davon sollten Westerzagros, Gulf Keystone, Genel und DNO int'l deutlich profitieren.

Schätze mal, wenn es in Syrien ruhiger wird und der Friedensprozeß zwischen Kurden und der Türkei wieder an Fahrt gewinnt, wird es noch besser.

Dennoch scheint der kurs seit den beiden Dustern auf nichts mehr zu reagieren.

Wenn man bedenkt, das Crest 51 Mio. Stücke zu 1,25 nachgekauft hat, sind die aktuellen Kurse von unter 1 CAD doch sehr verlockend.

[DJHLS]

Kurdarmir-3 scheint doch ein Treffer zu sein:

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/6404908-westernzag…

Die Börse honoriert es allerdings nicht. War da mehr erwartet worden?

[snafur]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.776.874 von DJHLS am 06.11.13 20:18:14

Die Ergebnisse von K3 sind nicht gerade der Superhit: Langweilige Flowrates und technische Probleme und dadurch Wassereinbruch. Die ganze Geschichte wird wohl noch etwas länger als erwartet dauern. Aber das Öl ist da und das auch nicht zu wenig. Und da ist ja auch noch Sarquala im Garmian Block ...

Gute knappe Zusammenfassung des gestrigen Conference-Calls:

Conference Call

Sarquala commerciality could be declared as early as Dec this year. TLM and WZR looking at FDP for Kurdamir in 2014. B1's oil is isolated from Kurdamir, no issue with SAME water. Perch issue is irrelevant for B1. K4 will utilize horizontal drilling. Problem with casing lead to acid opening access to deeper water rather than stimulating oil in DST 3 and 4 zone. H1 and B1 proceeding on time. Ultimate goal of FDP for Kurdamir is to develop gas and oil. $25M to $40M in cash flow just from Sarquala well if KRG allows them to sell the oil by trucking it to pipeline. THis would help with H2 2014 cash needs for drilling K4.

Wer sich den Conference-Call anhören will:
Tel. [phone] passcode: 2197761

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.wzr/westernz…

[DJHLS]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.779.808 von snafur am 07.11.13 09:37:39

Quartalsbericht vom 14.11.2013: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/6419060-westernzag…

Scheint ja, als ob die Aktie sich etwas berappelt. Immerhin wird ja jetzt klar: durch die Pipeline rücken die Projekte immer näher daran, für "commercial" erklärt zu werden.

Den Kurs finde ich nicht nachvollziehbar. Zumindest der Kurs, den ein gut informierter Käufer beim letzten Privat Placement gezahlt hat, müßte die Untergrenze bilden.

[al_sting]

Nur zur Info: Ich habe auch bei WesternZagros eine kleine Position aufgebaut. Auch wenn ich DNO für den spannendsten Kurdistan-Oil-Player halte, sehe ich auch bei WesternZagros einerseits einen über Gebühr heruntergeprügelten Aktienkurs und andererseits überproportionale Chancen sowie insgesamt ernsthafte Anzeichen, dass die Öl-Kurdistan-Story mit der Pipeline-Eröffnung eine neue Entdeckung vor sich hat.
Auf einen erfolgreichen Aufschwung der kurdischen Ölförderung!

[BalatonBomber]

Bin hier noch unschlüssig...

Kurze Gedankenzusammenfassung meiner Researchergebnisse:

Vorteile: große Anteile an den beiden großen PSC Blöcken. Öl ist wohl auch da...

Nachteile: Erwartungen bei Kurdamir zuletzt enttäuscht (Wie gut ist das Ölfeld?); Deadlines der PSCs bald erreicht: wenn keine commercial discovery, dann Rückgabe; es fehlt das Geld für agressives Drilling; können daher nicht alle prospects halten wie. z.B. Gazpromneft.

Wie seht ihr dies?

[al_sting]

WesternZagros erinnert mich massiv an den Zustand von DNO anno 2009/2010, als ich meine ersten Positionen zu 0,55€/Aktie kaufte.

Die aktuelle Lage von WesternZagros erinnert mich stark an jene von DNO Ende 2009/Anfang 2010:
Man sitzt auf interessanten Claims (Kurdamir und Garmian), die man wie DNO ziemlich früh erworben hat, so dass man bei den Konditionen von dem "Early Mover-Vorteil" profitieren konnte. Aber man ist gerade in einer schwierigen Phase, so dass die Kurse extrem niedrig sind.
WesternZagros ist noch immer weitestgehend im Explorationsstadium. Probebohrungen im August waren ein ziemlicher Fehlschlag, der die Aktionäre in Scharen (und meines Erachtens weit über Gebühr) aus der Aktie getrieben hat. Das sieht man gut an den Analystenschätzungen:
- Bei DNO reichen die Kursziele der 17 Analysten von -50% bis +37% bezogen auf den aktuellen Aktienkurs.
- Bei Genel reichen diese Ziele (20 Analysten) von -13% bis +33%
- Bei Gulf Keystone reichen diese Ziele (11 Analysten) von - 1% bis +193%
- Bei WesternZagros reichen diese Ziele (7 Analysten) von +77% bis + 219%!!!
Ich gehe hier also stark von einer negativen Marktübertreibung aus.

WesternZagros hat, anders als DNO und Genel, bislang keine Planungen eines Öltransportes per LKW ins Ausland gestartet. Daher ist eine fertiggebaute und funktionierende Pipeline für WZ besonders wichtig.
Es gibt Spekulationen, dass die KRG auf einer vom 1.-4.12. stattfindenden Öl- und Gasfachtagung in Kurdistan die Fertigstellung dieser Pipeline verkünden wird. Auf dieser Tagung wird auch WZ seine neuesten Entwicklungen vorstellen. Damit könnte diese Tagung einen Trigger für die Entwicklung darstellen.

Meine Spekulation:
1. Der Boom um DNO wird das allgemeine Interesse an der Erdölförderung im Nordirak und an Kurdistan-Spezialisten verstärken.
2. Mit den nächsten Erfolgsmeldungen wird WZ wieder populärer werden.
3. Eine fertiggestellte kurdische Ölpipeline wird einen massiven Schub für die gesamte Erdölwirtschaft in Kurdistan darstellen. Davon profitieren unabhängige Explorer wie WZ besonders.
4. Falls WZ nicht selber in die Hufe kommt, werden größere Rohstoffkonzerne die Firma bzw. die Assets aufkaufen und dafür gehörig blechen.

Ist und bleibt natürlich riskant, deshalb ist WesternZagros auch eine deutlich kleinere Position als DNO.

[al_sting]

Zitat von BalatonBomber: Bin hier noch unschlüssig...

Kurze Gedankenzusammenfassung meiner Researchergebnisse:

Vorteile: große Anteile an den beiden großen PSC Blöcken. Öl ist wohl auch da...

Nachteile: Erwartungen bei Kurdamir zuletzt enttäuscht (Wie gut ist das Ölfeld?); Deadlines der PSCs bald erreicht: wenn keine commercial discovery, dann Rückgabe; es fehlt das Geld für agressives Drilling; können daher nicht alle prospects halten wie. z.B. Gazpromneft.

Wie seht ihr dies?

"Deadlines der PSCs bald erreicht: wenn keine commercial discovery, dann Rückgabe;"
Wo finde ich Angaben zu den Deadlines? Nebenbei habe ich den Eindruck, dass WZ das "commercial discovery" jeden Moment verkünden will.

"es fehlt das Geld für agressives Drilling; können daher nicht alle prospects halten wie. z.B. Gazpromneft."
WesternZagros ist definitiv unterkapitalisiert. Sie werden also Wege finden (müssen), wieder an Kapital zu kommen. Ich sehe verschiedene Ansätze:
- Kapitalerhöhung, falls der Kurs sich wieder etwas gefangen hat.
- Farm out nach Erklärung des Commercial discovery.
- Verkaufen von einzelnen Assets, um Geld für die Erschließung der anderen Assets zu haben
- Fusion mit einem finanzstärkeren Partner (da könnten u.U. auch Genel und DNO Interesse haben. Der Cashflow von beiden sollte ja reichen, auch diese beiden Felder zu entwickeln.)

Ich denke, für WZ wird es besonders wichtig sein, dass die "Öl in Kurdistan"-Story wieder populärer wird. Und wenn ich mir DNO anschaue, halte ich das für gut möglich.

[DJHLS]

Zitat von al_sting:

Zitat von BalatonBomber: Bin hier noch unschlüssig...

Kurze Gedankenzusammenfassung meiner Researchergebnisse:

Vorteile: große Anteile an den beiden großen PSC Blöcken. Öl ist wohl auch da...

Nachteile: Erwartungen bei Kurdamir zuletzt enttäuscht (Wie gut ist das Ölfeld?); Deadlines der PSCs bald erreicht: wenn keine commercial discovery, dann Rückgabe; es fehlt das Geld für agressives Drilling; können daher nicht alle prospects halten wie. z.B. Gazpromneft.

Wie seht ihr dies?

"Deadlines der PSCs bald erreicht: wenn keine commercial discovery, dann Rückgabe;"
Wo finde ich Angaben zu den Deadlines? Nebenbei habe ich den Eindruck, dass WZ das "commercial discovery" jeden Moment verkünden will.

"es fehlt das Geld für agressives Drilling; können daher nicht alle prospects halten wie. z.B. Gazpromneft."
WesternZagros ist definitiv unterkapitalisiert. Sie werden also Wege finden (müssen), wieder an Kapital zu kommen. Ich sehe verschiedene Ansätze:
- Kapitalerhöhung, falls der Kurs sich wieder etwas gefangen hat.
- Farm out nach Erklärung des Commercial discovery.
- Verkaufen von einzelnen Assets, um Geld für die Erschließung der anderen Assets zu haben
- Fusion mit einem finanzstärkeren Partner (da könnten u.U. auch Genel und DNO Interesse haben. Der Cashflow von beiden sollte ja reichen, auch diese beiden Felder zu entwickeln.)

Ich denke, für WZ wird es besonders wichtig sein, dass die "Öl in Kurdistan"-Story wieder populärer wird. Und wenn ich mir DNO anschaue, halte ich das für gut möglich.

Dumm nur, wenn alle Welt weiß, daß WZ dringend das Geld braucht. Das macht die Verhandlungsposition nicht einfacher.

Dennoch sollte ein Bieterwettbewerb um Farm-Outs möglich sein. Dass die bereits in der Region engagierten da noch stärker reingehen halte ich für eher unwahrscheinlich. Könnte mir eher vorstellen, dass die Chinesen sich da einkaufen wollen.

Vielleicht schlägt auch eine regional gut vernetzte Firma wie Dragon Oil zu.

Jedenfalls wird es für WZ so langsam mal Zeit...

[al_sting]

Stimmt, bequem ist die Lage für WZ nicht. Der Aktienkurs ist ja nicht ohne Grund im Keller. Ich denke, wenn WZ durchhält, bis die kurdische Pipeline eröffnet und Öl fließt, sollten die Preise für kurdische Assets schon anständig in die Höhe schießen.

Was mögliche Käufer bei Farm-Put-Projekten oder kompletten Projektverkäufen angeht: Genel soll in letzter Zeit sein Irak-Portfolio derart weiter aufgefüllt haben. DNO war 2013 auch aktiv bei Farm-Out-Projekten, allerdings mehr im Ausland (z.B. Tunesien und Oman). Weiterhin kommen von Chinesen bis zu Amis m.E. zahlreiche potentielle Käufer in Frage.

Aber mal Frage an jene, die WZ schon länger beobachten: Wie zuverlässig ist das Unternehmen normalerweise bei Zeitangaben?
Laut dieser Nachricht: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/6431886-westernzag…
"Monday, December 2, 2013
Simon Hatfield, the Company's Chief Executive Officer, will address "Accelerating Oil and Gas Development Projects to Fuel the Economy" at the four day conference on December 1 - 4, 2013, which is an international strategic gathering for the Kurdistan-Iraq oil and gas industry.
A copy of the presentation will be available on the Company's web site at www.westernzagros.com following Mr. Hatfield's presentation."
hätte WZ irgendwann vom 1.-4. Dezember auf besagter Konferenz einen Vortrag gehalten und die Folien auf der eigenen Homepage online gestellt. Allerdings ich finde sie bislang (9.12.2013) nicht auf der Homepage.

[BalatonBomber]

Die Präsentation ist online auf der Homepage.

[al_sting]

Danke für den Hinweis! Sind sogar gleich zwei Präsentationen geworden. :-)
Ich bin immer wieder beeindruckt, wie viele Informationen sich bei WesternZagros über die Gesamtsituation in Kurdistan finden!
Ansonsten fühle ich mich im Eindruck bestätigt, dass WZ als besonders riskantes, aber chancenreiches Spiel jetzt anbietet. Man braucht noch eine Weile, bis genug Öl fließt, um die laufenden Kosten zu decken - und da kann einiges dazwischenkommen...
Aber dafür bekommt man WZ jetzt wirklich zum Schnäppchenpreis.

[DJHLS]

Zitat von al_sting: Danke für den Hinweis! Sind sogar gleich zwei Präsentationen geworden. :-)
Ich bin immer wieder beeindruckt, wie viele Informationen sich bei WesternZagros über die Gesamtsituation in Kurdistan finden!
Ansonsten fühle ich mich im Eindruck bestätigt, dass WZ als besonders riskantes, aber chancenreiches Spiel jetzt anbietet. Man braucht noch eine Weile, bis genug Öl fließt, um die laufenden Kosten zu decken - und da kann einiges dazwischenkommen...
Aber dafür bekommt man WZ jetzt wirklich zum Schnäppchenpreis.

Meine These dazu ist, dass hier der saisonale Effekt voll durchschlägt. Retail investors verkaufen aus steuerlichen Gründen und die institutional Investor verkaufen, wegen window dressing, d. h. Um in der Jahresabschlussbilanz keine Loser-Titel zu zeigen.

[al_sting]

Ah, die Neuigkeiten zur Pipeline sind jetzt auch in Kanada angekommen.
Dank der Verzögerung konnte ich mich noch günstig eindecken. Merci. :-)

"Zumindest der Kurs, den ein gut informierter Käufer beim letzten Privat Placement gezahlt hat, müßte die Untergrenze bilden."
Kleine Frage eines hier neuen Anlegers: Wann war dieses private placement und wie hoch war damals der Ausgabekurs?

[al_sting]

Reisebericht aus Kurdistan:
http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/matt-badialis-insider-…

Nur ein Ausschnitt daraus:
"TER: I know you visited some juniors. What's an example of a junior that's operating in the area?

MB: WesternZagros has a couple of big exploration blocks in the Kurdamir region of Kurdistan. I had a chance to meet with their geologists and members of the team. These people are well informed and technically savvy.

"The money that has poured into Kurdistan because of oil and gas is astonishing. They call it Little Dubai. Everywhere we looked, we saw massive infrastructure projects."

They put together a great information session, which they allowed me to attend. The lead lecture was provided by an energy analyst who worked in the Bush White House and was a diplomat prior to jumping over to the private sector and working for the Kurds. He presented an excellent summary of the many influences affecting the oil and gas industry in Kurdistan.

I was very impressed by WesternZagros. The company is educated on the region, which is critical to success. Companies have to be sensitive to the religious and political differences between the Kurds and the Arabs. The two groups are distinctly different. The Kurdish population is split and isolated due to the arbitrary boundaries drawn after World War II. These boundaries left isolated pockets of Kurds separated in three different countries.

TER: Understanding that balancing act is probably key for WesternZagros to be able to operate successfully in the area.

MB: Absolutely. And it's important for WesternZagros' investors to understand, too. Investors boarded a bus—not an armored bus because this area really is very civilized—and went to look at the property for themselves. WesternZagros' leases are in the southeast part of Kurdistan, on trend with the giant Kirkuk oil field, which up until the discovery of Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, was the largest in the world. The oil is lighter and sweeter, which makes it more valuable.

The company has two production sharing contracts that are about 500,000 acres. It was the fourth international company to come into Kurdistan, so this company was an early mover. The company is fairly small. It has almost 5 billion barrels oil equivalent (Bboe) of prospective oil. It's an interesting little play. When the rollup happens, WesternZagros will be included in that group, absolutely."

[snafur]

Iraqi Kurdistan's First Oil Exports via Turkey Pipeline Seen by End-Jan

ANKARA, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The first crude has started to flow through Iraqi Kurdistan's new pipeline across Turkey and the first independent exports are expected to begin at the end of this month, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) said on Wednesday.

The first parcel of 2 million barrels of oil will be sold via a tender, KRG's Ministry of Natural Resources said on the government's web site. It invited bidders for the January tender.

The monthly export parcels will then increase to 4 million barrels and 6 million barrels in February and March respectively, it said. The monthly exports are estimated to reach 10-12 million barrels in December.

(...)

See more at: http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/131002/Iraqi_Kurdistan…

[al_sting]

Neue Präsentation auf der Homepage verfügbar, Stand Januar 2014: http://www.westernzagros.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2014…

Wieder mit leichtem Blick über den Tellerrand, so findet man auf S.5 Angaben zu dem API-Grad von verschiedenen Ölfunden in Kurdistan sowie eine Karte zu vergebenen und nicht vergebenen Ölsuchgebieten in Kurdistan.

Kurdamir soll in Q1/2014 seine "Declaration of Commerciality" abgeben.
2C-Ressourcen ("Best estimate of contingent resources" --> hohes Schätzungsrisiko) = 545 mmboe Öl, 943 mmboe Öl+Gas
Weitere "prospectives": 1.600 mmboe
geplante Förderung 2014: 3.500 barrel/day
geplante Förderung 2015: 40.000 barrel/day
Transport per LKW, da bislang kein Pipeline-Anschluss.

Garmian/Sarquala soll in Q4/2014 seine "Declaration of Commerciality" abgeben.
2C-Ressourcen ("Best estimate of contingent resources" --> hohes Schätzungsrisiko) = 24 mmboe Öl, 31 mmboe Öl+Gas
Weitere "prospectives": 1.300 mmboe
geplante Förderung 2014: 10.00 barrel/day
geplante Förderung 2015: 60.000 barrel/day
Transport per LKW, da bislang kein Pipeline-Anschluss.

Förderungsträume, 2020+, Kurdamir + Garmian: 500.000 barrel/day

[pillpall]

Sieht ja nicht so toll aus.
Sollte wohl nicht an den politischen Verhältnissen in Kurdistan liegen, DNO hat sich ja auch wieder erholt.

[al_sting]

Aktueller Investor Call: http://www.westernzagros.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/1136…

[al_sting]

WesternZagros bietet sich zum Verkauf an:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Talisman+increase+Kurd…
"Calgary-based international junior WesternZagros Resources Ltd. said Wednesday it has hired a financial adviser to consider strategic alternatives that could include a corporate sale or sale of assets.
[...]
Tony Kraljic, vice-president of business development, said WesternZagros has about $70 million in operating capital in the bank but that is expected to run out by year-end unless it finds a way to get oil to market.

In the first three months of 2014, it reported spending $26 million to cover its share of capital costs on the Kurdamir and Garmian blocks. It is the operator and 40 per cent owner at Garmian, which it shares with Russia’s Gazprom Neft, at 40 per cent, and the government.

Kraljic said WesternZagros’ need for cash will be greatly relieved if it can restart a Garmian block well that was producing 5,000 barrels of oil per day before being shut down to due market constraints in 2012. The company is performing a workover that could double production.

He agreed a large company might be interested in buying out both Talisman and WesternZagros."

Die im Artikel angesprochene Idee, dass Talisman WZ kaufen sollte, ist unrealistisch. Talisman sucht seit einem Jahr Käufer für seine kurdischen Objekte.

Es wird interessant zu sehen, wie viel Geld WZ für seine Projekte erlösen kann. Wenn es viel ist, sollte das die Kurse der anderen Kurdistan-Explorer auch beflügeln.

[BalatonBomber]

WZR war ja zuletzt der am besten laufende Kurdistan stock. Knapp 50%+.
Hoffentlich gibt es ihn nochmal günstiger in den nächsten Monaten. Ich war letztes Jahr recht enttäuscht, dass sie mangels Kohle auf Teile der Exploration zugunsten Gaznefts verzichtet haben.
Mal schauen wie sich die Finanzierung auswirken wird. Meistens lastet sowas spürbar auf den Kursen.

[Hadock]

Hallo,

WZ will seine beiden Lizenzen weiter entwickeln und wird Fremd- und Eigenkapital aufnehmen.
Quelle:
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/6935440-westernzag…

MFG

[BalatonBomber]

Das wird eine üble Verwässerung zu dem Kurs.
Warum solch ein Volumen auf einen Schlag? Letztes Jahr hat man noch mangels Geld auf die Anrechte aus möglichen Explorationserfolgen mit Gazprom Neft teilweise verzichtet...

Damit verliert die WZR-Aktie vermutlich ihren Status als günstiger Kurdistan-Explorer (je nach Kursentwicklung natürlich ).
Ich sehe mich bestätigt, dass Genel und DNO durch ihre Finanzkrft in Summe die besseren Invests darstellen. Zumindest zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt.

[BalatonBomber]

Wow. -17,8% auf 0,74$ derzeit in Toronto.
Reife Leistung vom Management.

[DJHLS]

Zitat von BalatonBomber: Wow. -17,8% auf 0,74$ derzeit in Toronto.
Reife Leistung vom Management.

War eigentlich überfällig. Trotz der schwächeren Bilanz hatte sich WesternZagros besser gehalten als die stärker aufgestellten DNO und Genel. Auch was Corporate Governance und Gleichbehandlung aller Aktionäre angeht, hätte ich bei WesternZagros mehr Zweifel.

[Ramses21]

Wenn die Ölpreise weiter bei knapp $ 55 liegen, wird der Kurs con Westernzagros sicher höher liegen am Jahresende.