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    AerCap Holdings N.V. to Release Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Financial Results on February 23, - 500 Beiträge pro Seite | Diskussion im Forum

    eröffnet am 20.04.15 10:45:27 von
    neuester Beitrag 31.03.21 16:10:42 von
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     Ja Nein
      Avatar
      schrieb am 20.04.15 10:45:27
      Beitrag Nr. 1 ()
      AMSTERDAM, The Netherlands, January 30, 2015 - AerCap Holdings N.V. ("AerCap," NYSE: AER) announced today that it will host a conference call and webcast for investors and analysts at 9:00 am Eastern Time on Monday, February 23, 2015 to review its …

      Lesen sie den ganzen Artikel: AerCap Holdings N.V. to Release Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Financial Results on February 23, 2015
      Avatar
      schrieb am 20.04.15 10:45:27
      Beitrag Nr. 2 ()
      habe mir mal ein paar Ansichtsstücke geholt
      1 Antwort
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.02.16 19:48:50
      Beitrag Nr. 3 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.600.337 von R-BgO am 20.04.15 10:45:27
      WOW,
      sind die abgeschmiert...
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.02.16 21:19:09
      Beitrag Nr. 4 ()
      auf Positionsgröße aufgestockt
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.07.16 16:39:06
      Beitrag Nr. 5 ()
      Ist die Aktie im Jahr 2007-08 nur wegen der Finanzkrise so hart abgestürzt oder gab es noch andere Probleme?

      Falls nicht, scheint mir die Aktie sehr Krisenanfällig zu sein, obwohl die Fundamentaldaten sehr gut sind und das KGV echt niedrig ist.

      Weiß jemand was dazu?
      3 Antworten

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      Avatar
      schrieb am 07.12.16 10:54:46
      Beitrag Nr. 6 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.794.766 von Kalbaran am 08.07.16 16:39:06
      ist mir auch ein gewisses Rätsel,
      bin eben über die Q3-Zahlen gegangen und finde sie werden dieses Jahr ein zwar reduziertes aber immer noch sehr ordentliches Ergebnis machen;

      fast ein Sechstel der Aktien wurden im letzten Jahr zurückgekauft.


      Mögliche Risiken, die zu Volatilität führen:

      -Bonität der Kunden
      -Entwicklung Flugverkehr
      -Verteuerung Finanzierung
      -Restwertstabilität
      ...

      Überspitzt gesagt: wenn es mit dem Flugverkehr weltweit gut läuft ist das bombastisch für AerCap, wenn nicht, dann umgekehrt

      ich halte vorerst weiter
      2 Antworten
      Avatar
      schrieb am 16.12.16 00:54:52
      Beitrag Nr. 7 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 53.843.852 von R-BgO am 07.12.16 10:54:46Die Finanzkrise hat AerCap Holdings sicherlich sehr hart, wahrscheinlich sogar übertrieben hart, in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. Als Finanzdienstleister, in 2008 erst mit relativ kurzer Börsenzugehörigkeit und dem Kerngeschäft Luftfahrtbranche, gehasst und mit hoher operativer Hebelwirkung, wurde dieses Unternehmen vermutlich komplett falsch eingeschätzt und übertrieben hart abgestraft. Fakt ist, dass AerCap Holdings eine sehr stabile Flottenauslastungsrate aufweist. Dies auch während der Finanzkrise.(Präsentation September 2015, Folie 64)

      Mit langsam aber beständig wachsenden Lieferungen und einem sehr guten Auftragsbuch sehen die nächsten Jahre vielversprechend aus.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 19.10.17 17:33:03
      Beitrag Nr. 8 ()
      Es werden immer mehr auch Flugzeuge geleast. Das Business scheint zu gedeihen, die PE 8.17
      Die Durchschnittsempfehlung laufet auf 60.50$ (derzeit 52.02$)
      Hab mir paar Stücke zugelegt.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 19.10.17 17:39:35
      Beitrag Nr. 9 ()
      1 Antwort
      Avatar
      schrieb am 06.09.18 15:12:49
      Beitrag Nr. 10 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 55.985.019 von hasi22 am 19.10.17 17:39:35
      Slideshow von Vorstellung 5.9. in NY
      denke, die Vorstellung könnte positive Kurswirkung zeigen.
      (siehe Zahlen auf Seite 3, Rückkäufe von eigenen Aktien für 950 mio $)

      https://investors.aercap.com/static-files/1333e8b3-effb-4046…
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.02.19 09:10:18
      Beitrag Nr. 11 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 53.843.852 von R-BgO am 07.12.16 10:54:46
      nichts wirklich Neues:
      gestrige Zahlen zeigen weiter eine gute Mrd. USD Gewinn, welcher bei nahezu unverändertem EK praktisch komplett in Rückkäufe gesteckt wird;

      aktuelle Bewertung:

      KGV 6,7
      KBV 0,77

      das läuft auf eine Verdoppelung alle fünf Jahre raus...
      Avatar
      schrieb am 17.03.19 19:06:24
      Beitrag Nr. 12 ()
      Avatar
      schrieb am 01.07.19 21:41:59
      Beitrag Nr. 13 ()
      AerCap Holdings | 45,72 €
      Avatar
      schrieb am 10.07.19 16:07:42
      Beitrag Nr. 14 ()
      zugekauft
      AerCap Holdings | 50,57 $
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.03.21 23:01:59
      Beitrag Nr. 15 ()
      Moin zusammen. Bin gerade über die Aktie gestolpert. Ist hier noch jemand drin und kann was dazu sagen?
      AerCap Holdings | 48,60 €
      Avatar
      schrieb am 18.03.21 18:49:05
      Beitrag Nr. 16 ()
      Ich habe einen. Hatte früher viel mit flugzeugleasing zu tun. Extrem zyklisch extrem risikoreich. Hier wird in kommender Zeit einiges an Müll vor die Tür gebracht. Dafür ist die Aktie sehr günstig und wir haben zukünftig die Nummer 1.
      AerCap Holdings | 50,50 €
      Avatar
      schrieb am 31.03.21 16:10:42
      Beitrag Nr. 17 ()
      Aus seeking alpha
      AerCap Scores The Mother Of 'Buy Low, Sell High' Deals

      Mar. 31, 2021 4:25 AM ETAerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)FTAIGE7 Comments4 Likes

      Stephen Simpson profile picture.
      Stephen Simpson
      14.99K Followers
      Bio
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      http://kratistoinvesting.blogspot.com/
      Long Only, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Value

      Contributor Since2010

      Stephen Simpson is a freelance financial writer and investor.

      Probably not just a team of raccoons wearing human clothes, but curious as to how many people actually bother to read this stuff...
      Summary

      AerCap's acquisition of GEACS is a bold move that will roughly replicate its current fleet, but at a 20% to 25% discount to book.
      AerCap's enhanced size should give it lower financing costs over time, better bargaining power with aircraft OEMs, and enhanced deal options with larger airline clients.
      Depending upon how quickly GE wishes to exit and how quickly the aircraft resale market recovers, AerCap may end up buying back some of GE's stake.
      Adding GEACS to AerCap creates meaningful accretion, lifting my core earnings-based fair value to over $70.
      Investors can’t fault the management of AerCap (AER) for thinking too small. Yet again management has shown its willingness to make bold moves at tough points in the cycle, agreeing to a huge $31B-plus deal with General Electric (GE) to acquire GEACS and create far and away the largest aircraft leasing company in the world.

      I believe time will show this to be a savvy deal done a bit past the bottom of the cycle, with AerCap paying around 0.6x book (on a levered basis) for a quality leasing company and paying around 0.75x to 0.80x for a fleet similar to its own, all while maintaining its invaluable investment-grade debt rating. I expect meaningful aircraft sales in the years to come (into a strengthening market), with share repurchases restarting a little further down the line.

      Size Isn’t Everything, But It Still Does Matter

      At the recent 2021 JPMorgan Industrials conference, the CEO of Avolon, one of AerCap’s larger competitors, claimed that an investment-grade debt rating was more important in aircraft leasing than size. While a link to the presentation is not available, he made a similar point in an interview earlier in the year.

      I agree to a point. The “secret sauce” to successful aircraft leasing isn’t really that complicated – borrow on better terms than your clients can, buy planes that are in demand, and keep your operating costs low. Do that, and the business can print money. It’s also why I regard AerCap maintaining its IG rating through this process as critical to long-term value from the deal.

      That said, quantity has a quality all its own. Enhanced scale should reduce AerCap’s long-term financing costs, strengthening that critical competitive factor. AerCap should also be able to achieve at least modestly better terms with OEMS like Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) and Boeing (BA). AerCap should also be able to achieve some modest operating cost synergies by removing duplicate back-office expenses.

      A larger fleet will also facilitate AerCap being even more of a “partner of choice” for larger airlines that want to lease more of their fleet instead of owning it – including sale-leaseback transactions, which AerCap management has said they’re seeing “strong interest” in from potential clients.

      Will The Deal Get Done?

      A few entities have already come public with their opposition to the merger, arguing that it will harm customers, hurt competition, and so on. I find those arguments a little insincere.

      For starters, while AerCap + GEACS will undoubtedly be the largest leasing company (by a wide margin), it will still only be around 15% to 20% of the global leasing fleet assuming a return to around 10,000 to 12,000 leased planes in service. Leasing terms are generally established by the underlying values of the planes and the creditworthiness of the lessee; with AerCap representing only around 20% of the global leasing fleet and focusing on the most popular aircraft models, I don’t see the company having any sort of monopoly pricing power.

      Likewise, the company will only have commercial relationships with around 30% of the airlines operating today. As leasing is likely to become an even larger part of the aircraft market during the post-pandemic recovery, that will further mitigate the influence AerCap can have on the industry.

      In some modest ways it could also be a beneficial deal for some lessors. AerCap may find that in the future it’s less financially advantageous to deal with smaller, riskier airlines and may instead choose to focus on larger, better-rated customers (who can lease more planes and reliably commit to longer lease terms). Should that be the case, smaller lessors will have the opportunity to pick up that business, likely at slightly more attractive lease rates.

      Post-Deal Maneuvers To Watch For

      GE will own 46% of the combined company and will get two board seats, but the deal is structured in such a way that GE can get out pretty quickly if they choose. There are lock-ups for each third of GE’s holdings, with the first third expiring within nine months of close, one third at 12 months, and the final third at 15 months. Depending upon the timing of GE’s sales, the credit markets, the market for aircraft sales, and AerCap’s liquidity situation, it is plausible to me that AerCap could buy back some of GE’s stake, likely at a discount.

      AerCap management did make it clear that aircraft sales will accelerate after the deal, and over $1 billion a year is certainly in the cards. A lot will depend upon market conditions, of course, as AerCap has shown itself to be a savvy buyer and seller and will likely wait for aircraft demand to recover before looking to do meaningful sales.

      I’m also curious to see what will happen with the regional jet, engine, and helicopter leasing operations. I don’t think AerCap wanted any of these, but indications are that it was an all-or-nothing proposition. Engine leasing actually isn’t a bad business, Fortress Transportation & Infrastructure (FTAI) has done pretty well with it, and AerCap has the scale to be a long-term player if they wish to be.

      The regional jet business will probably be run off, with planes sold as leases expire.

      The helicopter business is more uncertain. This business has been marked down significantly ($1.6B of the $3B impairment charge), and it should be at or near the bottom given conditions in offshore oil/gas and the bankruptcy of several service firms. I would expect AerCap to be opportunistic; I don’t believe they have the intention of being a long-term player in helicopter leasing, but may wait for a market recovery before selling the assets.

      The Outlook

      Roughly speaking, adding GEACS adds $7B in revenue and $5B in operating cash flow, and by my math should produce at least mid-teens accretion in the first year, and significantly more the years thereafter. Again, I believe AerCap is basically replicating its fleet (similar age, similar lease terms, slightly worse skew to older tech with GEACS) at a 20% to 25% discount to book ahead of a significant recovery in air travel and aircraft demand.

      I expect AerCap to generate high single-digit core earnings growth (around 8%) in the decade after the deal, helped in large part by double-digit growth in the early years as aircraft demand recovers and aircraft are sold. Longer term, growth will slow toward the low-to-mid single-digits, but I do believe leasing will continue to grow as a percentage of the overall aircraft market, allowing AerCap to outgrow the global fleet. I also believe the addition of the GEACS assets will push ROE's into the low-to-mid teens versus my prior standalone estimate of around 10%.

      The Bottom Line

      Discounted back, I believe the core earnings from the enlarged AerCap support a fair value in the low $70’s. I get a lower value on a ROTE-driven price/book basis, with a fair value in the mid-$60s. Either support owning the shares today, though, and I believe AerCap is worth holding not only for its leverage to a post-pandemic air travel recovery, but also management’s demonstrated ability to deploy capital to acquire assets at attractive prices.
      AerCap Holdings | 59,26 $


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      AerCap Holdings N.V. to Release Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Financial Results on February 23,