AEterna Zentaris AEZS 1000% Chance !? (Seite 360)

[segesta]

http://ir.aezsinc.com/sites/aezsinc.investorhq.businesswire.…

[segesta]

Fakten aus Q3

License fees were $0.2 million and $0.3 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2016, respectively, as compared to $0.1 million and $0.2 million for the same periods in 2015. Those revenues resulted partially from the amortization of a onetime, non-refundable payment made to us in 2014 in connection with a master collaboration agreement, a technology transfer and technical assistance agreement and a license agreement we entered into with Sinopharm, which is related to ZoptrexTM. We deferred this non-refundable payment and we amortize it on a straightline basis over a four-year period. During the third quarter of 2016, we also started to amortize the one-time, non-refundable payments made to us in connection with similar agreements we entered into with Cyntec and Rafa, which also relate to ZoptrexTM. We amortize those on a straight-line basis over a 33-month period. We expect revenues during the fourth quarter of 2016 to be slightly higher than those recorded during the third quarter of 2016 due to higher sales commission revenue that we expect to generate in connection with our promotion efforts related to Saizen® and APIFINY®. We will also commence recording the amortization of the one-time, non-refundable payment received in connection with the agreements with STA, in connection with ZoptrexTM, as described in the "Key Developments" section above.

[Turnover15]

Insider Own 0.60% Shs Outstand 12.07M Perf Week -8.96%
Market Cap 36.81M Forward P/E - EPS next Y -0.99 Insider Trans 0.00%

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=aezs

Toilet Job

- ROA -65.10%
- ROE -213.00%
- Perf YTD -15.28%
- ROI -161.50%

[Turnover15]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 54.430.718 von herrscher2 am 28.02.17 16:06:02

Link funzt nicht? um was geht's?

[herrscher2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 54.430.112 von gadzid am 28.02.17 15:05:40

Daher wird der Kommentator aus dem obig zitierten yahoo board mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit Recht behalten.
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[gadzid]

"5. Patients with advanced, recurrent or metastatic endometrial cancer who have received one chemotherapeutic regimen with platinum and taxane (either as adjuvant or as first line treatment) and who have progressed."

Eine der Studienanforderungen phase 3

"Aufgrund zahlreicher Mechanismen der primären und sekundären Chemoresistenz ist das Pankreaskarzinom verhältnismäßig resistent gegenüber konventioneller systemisch verabreichter Chemotherapie, antikörperbasierten sowie niedermolekularen Therapiestrategien, Enzyminhibitoren, Bestrahlung und chirurgischer Therapie."

und weiter

"Das zytotoxische GnRH-Analogon AESZ-108 (AN-152) führt in vivo zu einer signifikanten Inhibition des Tumorwachstums im Vergleich zur Therapie mit dem Anthrazyklin Doxorubicin, welches zu keiner signifikanten Inhibition des Pankreaskarzinomwachstums führt."

aus der Pankreas Studie

Da Zop auf eine modifizierte Weise in die Tumorzelle eindringt,es eben nicht der durch vorangeganger Chemo mit Platin und /oder Taxan sehr häufig entstandenen sekundären Resistenz unterliegt im Gegensatz zu Dox,werden die aus der Phase 3 Studie berichteten überraschenden OS der Behandlung mit Zop entspringen.
Daher wird der Kommentator aus dem obig zitierten yahoo board mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit Recht behalten

[herrscher2]

Der einsame Pusher auf w:o

[gadzid]

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AEZS/community?ltr=1

"SL
4 days ago
I have results here. For control arm 9, 22, 25 and 28 month survival rates are 58%, 23%, 21% and 17%, respectively. Median is between 10 and 11 months.

For Zop arm 9, 22, 25 and 28 month survival rates are 66%, 40%, 34% and 33 %, respectively.
Median is likely to be in between13-15 months.

Survival curves "separate" nicely meaning that the hazard ratio will be between 0.7 and 0.75 or lower.

SL
SL
4 days ago
References:, GOG 2010 (dox), Aapro et al 2003 (dox), Thipgen et al 2004 (dox), Fleming et al 2004 (dox+Cisplatin), McMeekin et al 2015 (dox or taxane, no long term data)

SL
SL
4 days ago
Analysis is based on enrolment data, timing of 192th, 350th, 371th and 384th events, number of patients and historical OS data for doxorubicin arm. 22, 25 and 28 month survival rates are most accurate because of two reasons. Company disclosed accurately number of events multiple times between Aug 2016 and Jan 2017. 192th is estimated in June 2015. Secondly, in literature there is some variation in median OS times but much less variation in survival rates after 20+ months. Longer term survival rates are indeed within five percentage points.

Conclusion: study is likely to be succesful
Oil
Oil
4 days ago
Impressive analysis SL, thank you for sharing and I am betting you are correct.
M
M
3 days ago
The only way you can posit a separation (with any degree of certainty) in the arms is if you have large N, recent data in the setting (advanced, 2nd line) for control. In this case, you're blending in 1st line data with dated trials. The latter point is significant b/c of adjuvant therapy which means you will be seeing a much larger proportion of stage 3 patients with better prognosis (comparing trials is always tricky and prone to error b/c of differing methodologies and patient characteristics).

I
SL
SL
3 days ago
M, if you know more valid studies than my references, please let me know.

If my estimate for control arm survival is biased because of healtier 1st line patients that actually means that I am overestimating control arm survival and underestimating Zop survival!

I know comparing previous trials is tricky but what makes me confident is the fact that 20+ month survival is within very tight range. Remember that all patients were enrolled 20+ months ago.
SL
SL
3 days ago
I have used the very same model before and it has predicted failures (no separation in OS curves) 100% accurancy. But, this time the results are very different. I am certainly going to have a long position in April.

The key is to estimate control arm survival and the treatment arm is simply the residual."
ErikG
yesterday
Thank you for doing a review of OS and efficacy of Dox in stage 3/4 EC, there is a Cochrane review from 2015 I believe that finds the same as you. Don't see many reasons why it should behave marked differently in this study. Still there is one major flaw in your reasoning when comparing to Zoptrex; we don't know when the patients enrolled in this study. The enrollment period was from April 2013 to June 2015. The 504 patients could be quite unevenly distributed within these two years. To know when the events occur in each case we need to know when they enrolled. If the chances of success are as high as you estimate, and this is as easy to calculate, some big pockets would be buying here, no?
SL
SL
yesterday
I disagree with your enrolment point. Actually, there is accurate enough enrolment data available, thanks to transcripts and PRs. Company has disclosed their cumulative enrolment 11 times during the enrolment period (see below). All it needed was some work to collect it. I do not think that my analysis is flawed be-cause of lack of accurate enrolment data.

There might be some period between enrolment and randomization and treatment (my estimate is 2-4 weeks).

Jul 2013: 1
Nov 2013: 20
March 2014: 105
May 2014: 145
Aug 2014: 230
Sep 2014: 256
Nov 2014: 310
Jan 2015: 360
Mar 2015: 416
Apr 2015: 465
Jun 2015: 504(or 512)

First patient was enrolled 42 months, median patient 29 months and last patient 19 months before 384th event.


20 oder 30$ nach topline?

[segesta]

zoptarelin doxorubicin in castration- and taxane-resistant prostate cancer

February 2017:  A phase II trial of zoptarelin doxorubicin in castration- and taxane-resistant prostate cancer

http://www.aezsinc.com/files/pipeline/aezs108/170216_aezs_10…

Gibt's Meinungen zu den Resultaten? Kann diese nicht so recht einordnen. Und scheint ja auch nicht auf besonderes Interesse gestossen zu sein.

[gadzid]

Wieso? Bin mir sicher(natürlich ohne Gewähr),daß das Zopergebniss intern schon bekannt ist,und wenn sie wirklich ne große Company formieren wollen,ist es nur folgerichtig,die weiteren Projekte voran zu treiben.