Ecuador Anleihen - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
neuester Beitrag 24.01.07 21:37:36 von
--$1,655,395,000 Collateralized Par Bonds due 2025
--$1,434,671,000 Collateralized Discount Bonds due 2025
--$2,308,344,000 Past Due Interest Bonds due 2016
--$190,744,000 IE Bonds due 2004
--$350,000,000 11.25% Fixed Rate Eurobonds due 2002
--$150,000,000 Floating Rate Eurobonds due 2004
Daraus hervor gingen nach einem Haircut von 40% die beiden US$ Anleihen ECU12 (526865) und die ECU30 (526864).
Ecuador hat der Dollar als Währung adoptiert ("Dollarisierung" ) und damit bisher wohl ganz gute Erfahrungen gemacht. Die Inflation wurde rapide heruntergefahren (klar beim Dollar) und da Ecuador hauptsächlich Commodities Öl, Agrarprodukte mit Weltmarktpreisen in US$ exportiert entstehen auch keine Nachteile im Verhältnis zu Ländern mit freifloatenden Währungen. Ab 2003 soll die Erdölförderung durch den Bau einer 2. grossen Pipeline deutlich ausgebaut werden, sodass hier eine gewisse Sicherheit in dauerhafter Schuldenbedienungsfähigkeit gegeben sein sollte (Ecuador ist ansonsten ein relativ armes Land).
Die Privatisierungen gehen ein wenig zäh vorran, aber immerhin es passiert was in dieser Hinsicht. Die Lage im Bankensektor ist noch nicht bereinigt, u.a. muss noch eine vom Staat im Rahmen der Bankenkrise übernommene Bank in Form ihrer verbliebenen Assets "verteilt" werden.
Ecuador hat sich bisher als notorischer IWF Programm Nichteinhalter gezeigt. Seit gut einem Jahr scheint das aber besser geworden zu sein. Kürzlich gab es sogar eine überfällige Zahlung an die Paris Club Länder (Vorbedingung für ein neues IWF Programm).
Daten zu Ecuador http://www.imf.org/external/country/ECU/index.htm
Die beiden Anleihen werden in Berlin gehandelt:
526865 Ecuador 12
Kurs ca. 72
Zinsen: 12%, Zahlung halbjährlich (15.5./15.11.)
1,25 Mrd US$
Tilgung in jährlichen Raten von 10% ab 2006 bis November 2011
526864 Ecuador 30
Kurs ca. 45
08/01 bis 08/02 5.00%; 08/02 bis 08/03 6.00%; 08/03 bis 08/04 7.00%; 08/04 bis 08/05 8.00%; 08/05 bis 08/06 9.00%; 08/06 bis Endfälligkeit 10.00%, Zahlung halbjährlich (15.2./15.8.)
2,5 Mrd US$
Tilgung in jährlichen Raten von 3% ab 08/2013 bis November 08/2029
Ich habe die Anleihen seit ca. 4 Monaten und bin mit der Entwicklung ganz zufrieden. Insbesondere die ECU12 zeichnet sich durch eine hohe laufende Verzinsung aus (20% als ich gekauft habe, jetzt um die 16-17%), sodass die Wertentwicklung besser ist als im Chart zu sehen (der berücksichtigt die Zinszahlungen natürlich nicht).
Dass diese Ecuador Anleihen riskant sind (und die auch schon mal Zahlungsausfälle in der Vergangenheit hatten s.o.) muss ich wohl nicht extra dazusagen oder ?
QUITO, Ecuador, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Ecuador will pay the $60 million it owes to the Paris Club of creditor nations this week to smooth the path for a final disbursement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a Finance Ministry official said on Wednesday.
The IMF is slated to meet Dec. 10 to evaluate Ecuador`s economic program and authorize two final disbursements for a total of $96 million, which would complete the Andean nation`s April 2000 program. Ecuador`s government agreed to get up-to-date on Paris Club debt obligations before this meeting.
"Definitely, we are going to comply and that is our objective (), so that we can go to the IMF meeting on December 10 with all these issues completed, prepared, so the third and fourth disbursements can be approved," Economy Undersecretary Julio Ponce told reporters.
"We are working on it and by the weekend we will make the payments," he said. Ecuador must make the $60 million Paris Club payments to complete its $300 million IMF accord.
Quito has already completed two other IMF requirements by sending to Congress a bill to set up an oil-stabilization fund with future crude revenues, and a bill to capitalize state-held Banco del Pacifico.
Ecuador, which adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in April 2000 amid economic and political turbulence, has failed to complete seven of its last eight IMF agreements.
Nur Geld anlegen dass man auch ggf. abschreiben kann.
Das versteht sich bei ’CCC’gerateten Anleihen eigentlich von selbst, kann man aber trotzdem wohl nicht oft genug sagen.
Interessehalber: Wann hast du denn in Ecuador gelebt ?
Meines Wissens nach sind die nächsten Wahlen 2002 (Präsident/Parlament). Hast du eine Quelle für deine Vermutung in 3 Jahren ?
1997-2000 in Ecuador. In dieser Zeit 4 amtierende Praesidenten, Totaler Zusammenbruch des Finanzwesens, Korruption in allen Bereichen, Generalstreiks, Putschversuche, Kapitalflucht...
Ich koennte ein Buch darueber schreiben.
Die Dollarización fuehrte zu einer sagenhaften Inflation in US$, die Kaufkraft der Menschen tendiert praktisch gegen null.. (natuerlich von der 5%igen Oberschicht abgesehen).
Quelle: Lebe zur Zeit in Peru, also Nachbarland, und lese halt Zeitung oder sehe fern...
als Käufer einer Anleihe interssiert mich: Können auf absehbare Zeit Zinsen und Tilgung geleistet werden. Aus der jetzigen Sicht halte ich das für Ecuador für eher wahrscheinlich.
In der Zeit 1997-2000 hätte ich sicher keine Ecu Anleihe gekauft, nur seitdem hat sich doch einiges verändert.
Die Dollarización fuehrte zu einer sagenhaften Inflation in US$,
Also die vorherige Währung (Sucre) war ja nun von heftiger Schwindsucht geprägt. Alleine von 1998 auf 1999 hat sie rund 2/3 ihres Wertes verloren. Den Zahlen von IWF/Ecuador kann ich seit der Dollarisation nur Bruchteile der damaligen Inflation entnehmen (auch in US$). Man kann sich ja sicher über 10, 20% Differenz streiten, nur dass die Zahlen von IWF/Ecuador mehrere 100% von der Realität abweichen, dafür hätte ich dann gerne doch ein Paar Beispiele.
Hast du deine Angabe zu den Wahlen nochmals überprüft ?
Von der Dresdner Bank Lateinamerika gibt es übrigens einen schon etwas älteren Länderreport, an dem man an Hand der jetzigen Entwicklung erkennen kann, dass die effiktive Entwicklung Ecuadors teilweise sogar besser war/ist als die Erwartungen.
Wirtschaftspolitik: Das Ringen um die Gunst des IWF
Mit dem Gerichtsurteil, das die Mehrwertsteuererhöhung von 12 % auf
14 %, Kernstück einer Steuerreform, für verfassungswidrig erklärte, hat
die Regierung einen monatelangen Nervenkrieg verloren. Dies stellte
erneut das IWF-Beistandsprogramm in Frage, dessen Fortsetzung der
Fonds von der Umsetzung der Steuerreform abhängig gemacht hatte.
Aber Ecuador konnte den IWF überzeugen: der Staatshaushalt dürfte
trotz des Debakels um die Mehrwertsteuer auch in diesem Jahr einen
Überschuss aufweisen, denn die Staatseinnahmen entwickeln sich,
unter anderem infolge des hohen BIP-Wachstums, überraschend gut.
Doch das Ringen um die Gunst des IWF setzt sich fort. Um weitere
Mittel - und damit auch dringend benötigte Kredite anderer multilatera-
ler Gläubiger - zu erhalten, muss Ecuador unter anderem den Banco
del Pacífico stärken, der in einem Jahr reprivatisiert werden soll, und
überfällige Schuldendienstzahlungen an den Pariser Club leisten.
(Anmerkung K1 Zahlun an Pais C. ist mittlerweile erfolgt, s.Post#2). Wir
gehen von der Fortsetzung der IWF-Hilfe aus, wobei es in Ecuador bei
der Schaffung der Voraussetzungen jedoch zu weiteren Verzögerun-
gen kommen kann. Allen Problemen zum Trotz gibt es aber auch einen
wichtigen strukturpolitischen Fortschritt: Anfang November billigte der
Kongress die Zulassung privater Pensionsfonds.
Konjunktur: Pipelinebau treibtWachstum
Das Wirtschaftswachstum wird in diesem Jahr deutlich höher ausfal-
len als bisher erwartet. Hauptwachstumsmotor ist der Bau der OCP-
Erdölpipeline, der gut zwei Jahre andauern soll und ein Investitionsvo-
lumen von über 1 Mrd. US$ umfasst. Im ersten Halbjahr stieg das BIP im
Vorjahresvergleich um 7,3 %. Wir rechnen 2001 und 2002 mit Zuwäch-
sen von 6 % bzw. 3,5 %. Aber zu bedenken bleibt, dass Ecuadors Wirt-
schaft, die vor drei Jahren in eine schwere Krise geraten war, in diesem
Jahr damit nur wieder ungefähr das Niveau des Jahres 1998 erreicht.
Zahlungsbilanz: Leistungsbilanz fällt ins Defizit
Die Außenwirtschaftsbilanzen verschlechtern sich. Die Erdölexporte
dürften 2001 infolge der niedrigeren Preise um ca. 0,5 Mrd. auf unter
2 Mrd. US$ fallen, die Importe aufgrund der Einfuhren im Zusammen-
hang mit dem Bau der Ölpipeline stark steigen. Wir rechnen im Gesamt-
jahr 2001 mit einem Leistungsbilanzdefizit von ca. 0,7 Mrd. US$; 2002
dürfte es sich, durch einen preisbedingten weiteren Rückgang des
Ölexports und zunehmende Importe, noch ausweiten. Obwohl die Aus-
landsinvestitionen im Zuge des Pipelinebaus 2001 merklich zu steigen
begannen, bleibt Ecuador, um die ohnehin niedrigen Devisenreserven
(Importdeckung nur gut 1 Monat) zu halten, auf multilaterale Kredite
Luz Knees 040 3595 3488
Quelle: Dresdner Bank Lateinamerika Perspektiven 12/2001
QUITO, Ecuador, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s tax receipts rose 13.8 percent in November 2001 versus the same month a year ago, the country`s Internal Revenue Service said in a report on Monday.
Net tax collection, which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits, reached $186.75 million in November 2001 compared with $164.16 million in November 2000, the report said.
Between January and November 2001, Ecuador took in $2.13 billion in taxes, the report said.
In November 2001, the country`s main tax -- Value Added Tax -- reeled in $131.41 million, versus $97.73 million in the same month of 2000.
QUITO, Ecuador, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s President Gustavo Noboa, who assumed power after a 2000 military coup, said on Wednesday he will not seek election in October 2002.
"I am not going to be a presidential candidate," Noboa said briefly in a television interview on Teleamazonas network.
Noboa, a 64-year old professor from Guayaquil, was catapulted to power from the vice-presidency after his predecessor Jamil Mahuad was ousted in a January 2000 Indian uprising backed by military officers.
It is still unclear who the presidential candidates will be in the October 2002 election. The Electoral Tribunal has warned that campaigning is not permitted until 45 days before the vote.
Banana exporter Alvaro Noboa and ex coup leader Lucio Gutierrez have collected signatures in an effort to form two new political parties that would back their candidacies.
The Electoral Tribunal said in a statement the signatures are still under review.
QUITO, Ecuador, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Ecuador may seek a stand-by agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for more than an estimated $300 million to minimize the impact of low oil prices, a Finance Ministry official, who declined to be named, said on Thursday.
The Andean nation plans to negotiate a new stand-by agreement with the fund in January after it successfully completed its agreement with the IMF this year, its first since 1986.
Ecuador`s government originally said it would seek a $300 million pact, but given the decline in the global economy and world oil prices a Finance Ministry official said it might seek more.
"We consider that the IMF may be able to lend something more next year," the high-ranking official told Reuters on the condition of anonymity.
The official said that there is room to negotiate an amount since Ecuador`s most recent $300 million accord is equivalent to only 75 percent of the country`s quota in the IMF.
Wall Street analysts consider a 2002 accord is vital for Ecuador to sustain the faith of investors and access the multilateral disbursements it needs to make payments on its foreign debt.
But President Gustavo Noboa may have a tough time getting important fiscal reforms pushed through Congress, where he has little support, as the country prepares for October 2002 elections, analysts say.
QUITO, Ecuador, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s public foreign debt fell 0.37 percent to $11.186 billion in November 2001 compared with the month before, the Central Bank (BCE) said on Tuesday.
This Andean nation`s public foreign debt was equivalent to 62 percent of gross domestic product in November 2001, according to the BCE`s Web site.
Ecuador restructured its Brady and Eurobond debt in 2000 to reduce it by 40.6 percent, after it defaulted on its bond payments in 1999.
January 15, 2002 09:24 PM ET
By Amy Taxin
QUITO, Ecuador, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s President Gustavo Noboa vowed on Tuesday to promote economic growth and crack down on corruption in his final year in office, despite a lack of support in Congress.
Noboa, in his annual state of the nation address, said he would push for more private investment in oil, electricity and telecommunications, adding that industry needed to become more competitive amid a world economic slowdown that cut Ecuador`s exports by 9.5 percent last year.
Many left-wing social organizations challenge Noboa`s privatization plans, saying it is selling the people`s wealth, and earlier on Tuesday about 150 students protested outside the presidential palace against Noboa`s economic policies.
"My government will continue to send the bills needed to Congress to create a positive investment environment, and ask the courts to quickly and efficiently take the necessary actions to overcome a lack of legal securities," Noboa said.
He urged Congress to move more quickly on a bill to create an oil stabilization fund to sustain the budget in times of low commodity prices, with new crude revenues from a $1.1 billion pipeline under construction.
The key bill may form part of a new agreement that Ecuador -- which posted Latin America`s highest growth rate in 2001 at 5.4 percent -- is seeking with the International Monetary Fund to access $300 million in credit and sustain investors` confidence.
He said foreign investment jumped 55 percent last year to $1.3 billion as a result of new-found confidence, mostly attached to the new pipeline project.
But Noboa, a 64-year-old university professor who became president after a 2000 coup, faces a difficult political year with the country gearing up for national elections in October and a lack of support in Congress.
Noboa, who has said he will not run again for president, appealed to Congress to support his legislative agenda.
"Let`s prove wrong those paradigms that make people think an election year is a lost year," he said in a speech to Congress, while pledging to work through the last day of his administration, which ends on Jan. 15, 2003.
"We need renewed political leadership, that will push the country toward a new fate," he added.
Noboa also urged judges to crack down on corruption and pursue trial for those accused. Ecuadoreans want a hard line taken against corruption, especially after the banking system collapsed between 1998 and 2000 due in part to mismanagement.
Noboa lauded Ecuador`s progress toward achieving sustained economic growth and controlling inflation since it adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in 2000.
Tax collection rose 56 percent in 2001, and bank deposits rose 51.6 percent, he said, in a sign of blossoming faith in the financial sector and improving personal income.
Der leicht steigende Ölpreis sollte aber gut für den Haushalt sein.
By Rachel Dex
Quito, Ecuador, Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s tax revenue soared 44 percent in January from the same month last year, beating government targets as holiday buying boosted receipts from the country`s value-added tax.
Net tax collection jumped to $234.1 million in January from $162.9 million last year, the tax authority said. The January tax collection was 21 percent above the government target for the month.
``It should help compensate for the lower oil price and boost the government`s liquidity, however it`s not a promise that the rest of the year will be at the same pace,`` said Gustavo Arteta an analyst at Quito based economic think tank Cordes.
Better-than-expected tax collection will help offset the lower than projected crude oil price of around $15.80 per barrel in January compared to the budget forecast of $19 a barrel. Taxes are the principal source of income for the $5.6 billion budget for 2002 and are expected to generate $2.57 billion in revenue, or 14 percent more than last year.
Value-added tax revenue rose 62 percent to $161.6 million from $99.9 million in the year-ago period, due to Christmas buying. Taxes for much of December are only collected in January. Income tax collection rose 15.5 percent to $44.7 million from $38.7 million last January.
According to the Central Bank the Andean nation`s $17.8 billion economy expanded 5.4 percent last year.
C. H. Quito, im Februar
In Ecuador will man über die Dollarisierung eigentlich gar nicht mehr diskutieren. Wirtschaftskreise und die Mehrheit der Politiker sehen in der Ablösung der schwachen Landeswährung durch den US-Dollar Anfang des Jahres 2000 auch im Nachhinein den einzigen Weg aus der schweren Krise, die sich damals gefährlich zugespitzt hatte. Und auch die Bevölkerung hat sich längst an den Greenback gewöhnt und würde ihn nicht mehr gegen den inflationsgeschüttelten Sucre eintauschen wollen.
Noch nicht abgeschlossenes Experiment
Die Entwicklung in den letzten zwei Jahren scheint diesen Stimmen Recht zu geben: Die politische Situation hat sich stabilisiert, und die Wirtschaft verzeichnet Wachstum bei mässiger Inflation. Ist das Experiment also geglückt in dem kleinen, armen Anden-Staat, der mit dem Schritt zur Dollarisierung eine bis anhin theoretisch diskutierte Idee in die Praxis umsetzte und damit grosses Aufsehen erregte?
Ende 1999 steckte das Land in seiner bis dato schwersten politischen und wirtschaftlichen Krise. Ob nun durch eigene Misswirtschaft oder durch externe Schocks verursacht, Ecuador stand vor einer Reihe grosser Probleme. Das Bankensystem war marode, die Finanzpolitik hatte einen hohen Schuldenberg aufgetürmt, und die Geldpolitik bestand im Wesentlichen darin, die Notenpresse auf vollen Touren laufen zu lassen. Zum Ende des Jahres 1999 erreichte die Jahresteuerung 61%, das Bruttoinlandprodukt (BIP) fiel um 7,3% zurück, und der Sucre war gegenüber dem Dollar regelrecht abgestürzt. Die Arbeitslosenquote stieg auf 18%; Tausende von Ecuadorianern zogen ins Ausland.
Die einzige Möglichkeit, das Land aus dem Schlamassel zu führen - und natürlich sich selbst an der Macht zu halten -, sah Präsident Mahuad in dem drastischen Schritt der Dollarisierung. Trotz diesem vornehmlich opportunistisch-politisch motivierten und eher spontanen als von langer Hand vorbereiteten Schritt wird er heute als der einzig mögliche und damit zwangsweise als der richtige eingestuft. Einen alternativen Weg - etwa die Einführung einer neuen Währung wie in Brasilien und einen sich daran anschliessenden, schmerzlichen Prozess, um die Währung als vertrauenswürdig zu etablieren - hätte das geschwächte Ecuador wohl kaum bewältigen können.
Unfähigkeitserklärung der Politik
Auch wenn die Dollarisierung schliesslich nichts anderes war als eine Unfähigkeitserklärung der Politiker, brachte sie doch einen Bruch mit der Vergangenheit und damit überhaupt erst die Chance auf einen Neuanfang. Der Dollar verlieh dem Land ein gewisses Mass an Vertrauenswürdigkeit - seitens der eigenen Bevölkerung und, wenn auch in geringerem Ausmass, seitens ausländischer Beobachter. Und dass im Nachgang der Einführung des Greenback der Staat eines seiner wichtigsten Instrumente - die Geldpolitik - abgeben musste, dürfte eher ein Gewinn als ein Verlust gewesen sein.
Ecuador hatte sich mit der Dollarisierung also eine kleine Verschnaufpause verschafft und einen noch tieferen Absturz verhindern können. Ein generell mit dieser Art der Währungsreform verbundenes Ziel - die Senkung der Inflation - scheint man nun zu erreichen. Nachdem die Jahresteuerung 2000 durch den Anpassungsschock auf 96% hochgetrieben worden war, lag sie 2001 bei durchschnittlich 40,3%; die Jahresend-Rate hingegen sank auf 22,4%, und für 2002 wird mit etwa 9% gerechnet. Eine weitere Hoffnung, die mit dem Wechsel zum Dollar allgemein verbunden ist, nämlich ein Sinken des Zinsniveaus - und ein sich stärkender Finanzsektor mit funktionierenden Märkten -, scheint sich ebenfalls, wenn auch langsam, zu erfüllen. Die Zinsen für Kredite, soweit überhaupt Darlehen vergeben werden, liegen zwar selten unter 16%. Das liegt jedoch vor allem am hohen Spread; diese Differenz zwischen den Zinsen, die die Bank zahlen muss, und denen, die sie von den Kreditnehmern erhebt, lässt sich zum einen mit dem Risikozuschlag erklären, zum andern mit der ungenügenden Effizienz der Banken. Das durch die Dollarisierung in Gang gesetzte Zurückgleiten des Zinsniveaus muss nun mittels weiterer Reformen des Sektors fortgesetzt werden.
Immerhin aber haben sich die Rahmenbedingungen wieder so weit stabilisiert, dass das BIP im vergangenen Jahr um 5,4% zulegen konnte. Neben dem Erdöl, das etwa 2 Wachstumspunkte beigesteuert haben dürfte, haben vor allem die Konsumenten mit dem Kauf langlebiger Konsumgüter und mit Investitionen in Immobilien die Wirtschaft wieder auf Trab gebracht. Diese Ausgaben sind Zeichen einer erstarkenden Kaufkraft von Bevölkerungsschichten, die unter der Rezession besonders gelitten hatten, wie die mittlerweile stark dezimierte Mittelschicht und die von 33% (1995) auf 44% (1999) der Gesamtbevölkerung gewachsene arme Unterschicht, die von höchstens 2 $ pro Tag - dafür gibt es z. B. zwei Büchsen mit Erfrischungsgetränken - lebt.
Doch die mit der Dollarisierung erreichte Verschnaufpause könnte das Land auf lange Sicht mit einem sehr hohen Preis bezahlen. Mit dem Wegfall des Instruments der Geld- und Währungspolitik muss der Staat seine Arbeit mit nur noch zwei Werkzeugen - der Fiskal- und der Strukturpolitik - bewältigen. Das eingeschränkte Instrumentarium muss nun zunächst einmal einsatzfähig gemacht werden. Diesen Herausforderungen würde sich wohl fast jeder Staat stellen müssen, der sich in einer Notsituation für die Dollarisierung entscheidet. Im Falle von Ecuador kommt aber noch ein erschwerender Faktor hinzu: Auf Grund seiner geringen Grösse (BIP von 18 Mrd. $ im Jahr 2001; 13 Mio. Einwohner), seiner vor allem von den Weltmarktpreisen abhängigen Exporte von Rohwaren und seiner hohen Verschuldung läuft der Anden-Staat Gefahr, von möglichen externen Schocks kräftig erschüttert zu werden. Ihnen wird das Land in Zukunft aber nur noch mit einem eingeschränkten Instrumentarium entgegentreten können. Neben der grundlegenden Stabilisierung des Landes mittels eines strengen Managements der Finanzen, der Stärkung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Unternehmen und des Abschlusses der Sanierung im Bankensektor ist deshalb der Aufbau verschiedener Puffer, also die Errichtung von externe Schocks abfedernden Mechanismen (z. B. Stabilitätsfonds), unumgänglich.
Auch wenn beim Entscheid für die Dollarisierung die damalige Regierung wohl kaum an die sich damit ergebenden Herausforderungen gedacht hat, ist man sich in der jetzigen Regierung der Lage durchaus bewusst und hat sich an die Arbeit gemacht; allein schon das gestiegene Problembewusstsein wird von Beobachtern als grosses Verdienst der Dollarisierung betrachtet. Die angeschlagenen privaten Banken wurden zum Teil bereits vom Staat übernommen und entweder saniert, geschlossen oder zum Verkauf angeboten. Die Sanierung dürfte mindestens 3 Mrd. $ gekostet haben. Die Banken selbst sind intern noch im Prozess der Neuorientierung; hatten sie zum Teil jahrelang gut von der Inflation leben können und mit Devisenspekulationen verdient, müssen viele nun das eigentliche Bankengeschäft aufbauen bzw. effizient betreiben lernen. Der Wegfall der Zentralbank als «lender of last resort» erfordert überdies ein strengeres Regelwerk.
In der Finanzpolitik konnten bereits einige Fortschritte erzielt werden. So hat man die Mehrwertsteuer-Einnahmen dank einer effizienteren Erhebung auf 29% des rund 5 Mrd. $ umfassenden Haushaltes erhöhen und damit die Erdöleinnahmen leicht übertrumpfen können. Ein demnächst dem Parlament zur Abstimmung vorzulegendes, als wichtiger Baustein im Reformprozess geltendes Gesetz soll langfristig den Rahmen für eine seriöse Finanzpolitik abgeben. Des Weiteren will man für die Zeit vorsorgen, da die Erdöleinnahmen (2001 rund 28% des Haushaltes) nicht mehr so reichlich sprudeln - sei es wegen eines Endes der Funde oder eines Absackens des Preises. Wird das Gesetz verabschiedet, sollen alle Einnahmen, die der Staat aus dem erschlossenen neuen Erdöl-Feld zufliessen, einen Stabilisierungsfonds kommen; 80% davon sollen für die Schuldentilgung genutzt werden. Diese Massnahme - das zweite wichtige Vorhaben der Regierung - lässt darauf hoffen, dass die Bevölkerung endlich einmal von dem Bodenschatz profitieren kann, nachdem das Land trotz dem Erdöl-Reichtum bis heute arm geblieben ist.
Die grösste Herausforderung dürfte in der Struktur- bzw. Wettbewerbspolitik liegen. Jahrelang war an deren Stelle quasi die Abwertung der Landeswährung getreten, mit der man die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit ecuadorianischer Produkte im Ausland herstellte. Gestiegene Kosten haben neben dem Wegfall dieses «Instrumentes» die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit noch zusätzlich belastet. Sie leidet oder litt ohnehin unter einigen Sonderbelastungen (z. B. Krankheitsbefall der Shrimps, «El Niño»); Korruption, Bürokratie und fehlende oder teure Infrastrukturleistungen sind zudem permanente Kostenfaktoren. Im World Competitiveness Report des World Economic Forum taucht Ecuador denn auch unter 75 Ländern auf dem 72. Platz auf.
Copyright © Neue Zürcher Zeitung AG
The government will proceed with the auction of seven electric distribution companies serving the Pacific coast, where local officials have lauded privatization as a way to boost competitiveness.
"The government has arranged for the process to go ahead for the seven companies on Ecuador`s coast and to be suspended for the 10 companies in the highlands and jungle," Noboa told reporters.
The decision comes a day after Quito`s city council voted to hang onto its 34 percent stake in the local electric company, denying the potential buyer the right to acquire the 75 percent stake needed to control the company according to its statutes.
The government is banking on the April 12 auction to make electric services more efficient and attract investment in energy generation needed to meet burgeoning demand in this nation of 12 million people.
It originally planned to auction the 10 companies serving the Andean highlands and Amazon in one group, and the seven coastal companies in another.
The government has the backing of the more market oriented Pacific coast, where the country`s biggest city and business center Guayaquil has long had private electric service and favors of handing over weak state companies to private owners.
But electric company unions and Indian organizations have led marches in Quito against the sale, arguing that private owners will turn electricity into a booming business and make services too costly for the poor.
Business leaders in Quito fear that debt-burdened state companies won`t be able to compete for energy with private companies on the coast, leading to a decline in service that could make it tough for the Andean region to lure investment.
Spain`s Union Fenosa UNF.MC , global power company AES Corp. AES.N and Argentina`s Pecom Energia PER.BA are prequalified to participate in the sale.
"It`s a terrible atrocity that the process has been suspended in the highlands and the coast is going ahead. It means a serious regional difference," said Gustavo Pinto, president of the Chamber of Industries for the province surrounding Quito.
Regionalism is an age-old problem in Ecuador, with coastal officials accusing the Quito-based central government of neglecting their needs and Andean business leaders arguing that coastal politicians care little about the highlands.
Noboa said shareholders in Ecuador`s state-owned electric companies in the jungle and mountains will be responsible for modernizing and improving electric services in their jurisdictions.The shareholders include provincial and municipal governments.
1999...wurde ohne rückzahlung einfach eingestellt..
nie wieder was von ecuador gehört..
noch nichtmal das sie nicht zahlen....
weiß jemand was darüber???
bist du sicher, dass du eine reguläre Anleihe hattest und nicht ein synthetisches Produkt ("synthetische Anleihe") ? Die Anleihen wurden in die am Anfang aufgeführten ECU12 und ECU30 Anleihen getauscht bzw. zurückgezahlt. Such doch mal die WKN oder ISIN Nummer deines Wertpapiers heraus, dann kann man das klären.
...mit 12% und nie was von gehört....
...danke für die antwort...
eine GmbH die Zwischen geschaltet ist und dann Pleite geht...
..dann war es nicht der Staat, sondern die GmbH....
so einfach geht das...
"..ich dachte das liegt am L.t.d...
eine GmbH die Zwischen geschaltet ist und dann Pleite geht...
..dann war es nicht der Staat, sondern die GmbH....
Nein, daran dass die Ltd. "pleite" geht liegt es nicht, sondern daran, dass bei diesem Konstrukt beispielsweise bei unterschreiten eines bestimmten Kurses (bspw. 30) oder anderer Ereignisse (bspw. Einstellung der Zinszahlung für eine gewisse Zeit) das ganze Konstrukt "wertlos" wird. Nettes Geschäft wie gesagt für die Bank, die sowas aufgelegt hat, denn sie streicht sozusagen den "Restwert" ein (vereinfacht gesagt).
Das BSP Wachstum für das Jahr 2001 wurde übrigens von der Zentralbank 5,4 auf 5,6% heraufkorrigiert. Der nunmehr stark gestiegene Ölpreis sorgt für deutliche Verbesserung auf der Einnahmenseite. Also ganz gut für die Anleihen.
Nichtsdestotrotz hoffe ich, dass der "Leidensdruck" für die Implementierung des Ölstabilisationsfonds noch hoch genug ist und die anstehenden Reformvorhaben auch wirklich durchgeführt werden. Dies ist eine Vorbedingung dafür, dass sich das Land auch mittelfristig positiv entwickeln kann. Hoffentlich hält der IWF (von dem ich sonst nicht so viel halte) ordentlich die Hand drauf. Eine neue Vereinbarung soll es bis Ende diesen Monats geben.
Die ECU12 könnte in den nächsten Tagen über 80 ausbrechen (aktuell 80,20). Der Chart der ECU30 sieht natürlich noch besser aus, zu berücksichtigen bei der ECU12 ist aber, dass sie eine wesentlich höhere laufende Verzinsung (von ca. 15%) aufweist, die nicht im Chart enthalten ist.
Ecuador Mar tax receipts up 32.5 pct on yr
Last Updated: April 17, 2002 06:42 PM ET
QUITO, Ecuador, April 17 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean tax receipts rose 32.5 percent to $200 million in March 2002 versus a year ago, the Internal Revenue Service said on Wednesday.
Net tax collection, which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits, was $151 million in March 2001, the Internal Revenue Service, known as SRI for its Spanish initials, said in a monthly report.
Tax collection during the first quarter of 2002 was $620.5 million, which surpassed SRI`s goal for this period by 21.6 percent.
This Andean nation expects in 2002 to reel in $2.5 billion in taxes, this the government`s biggest source of revenue.
It was not immediately clear whether the provision`s absence would threaten Ecuador`s plans to secure a $240 million, one-year IMF loan accord, which it desperately needs to pay its debt this year.
This Andean nation alarmed investors in 1999 when it defaulted on part of its foreign debt, but regained some market confidence after a 2000 debt restructuring and the completion of its first IMF deal in 15 years in 2001.
After arduous debate on Thursday, Congress approved a bill that sets limits on public spending and creates an oil-stabilization fund to cover potential budget gaps, invest in infrastructure, pay off public debt and the government`s debt to the Social Security system.
But Ecuador`s single-chamber legislature introduced a key change that gives the president free rein on how to allocate this oil fund, axing the government`s plan to channel 80 percent of its resources to lower its debt burden.
"The political pressure to allocate this, based on politics and not on technical grounds, is huge. So, hopefully, the president will veto this. The problem with that is we will need to wait another month, at least, for the IMF to sign off," said Luis Oganes, Andean debt strategist at JP Morgan in New York.
Congress` fiscal package will now be shipped to President Gustavo Noboa, who will have 10 days to approve or veto the bill.
The IMF wanted Ecuador to use this fund, which will contain revenues from crude transported through a new pipeline set for completion in 2003, to lower its debt burden and protect the budget against oil price swings.
The country is counting on a fresh IMF accord to tap a host of other multilateral credits it needs to pay $854 million in loan principal this year, on its more than $14 billion of public debt.
Many legislators also voiced concern over giving the executive branch a virtual carte blanche over distributing the fund`s resources, a proposal that squeaked by with the minimum 62 votes needed to pass.
"We just hope that Ecuador will have lucid governors that can manage this wealth with good judgment," said Democratic Left lawmaker Guillermo Landazuri, who opposed handing over such discretion to the president.
CAPS PUBLIC SPENDING
Other important points of the bill seek to limit annual hikes in the central government`s primary spending, excluding interest payments, to 2.5 percent in real terms.
The bill also aims to slash the deficit between the government`s revenues -- excluding those from oil exports -- and spending, by 0.2 percent of gross domestic product each year to limit Ecuador`s dependence on oil.
Xavier Neira, bloc leader for the right-leaning Social Christian party, said he was pleased that Ecuador had the foresight to set limits on how the new oil resources would be spent, before they start pouring in.
"I think it`s important that before tapping this new wealth, we set up disciplinary norms to avoid wasting it. I think that`s the most important thing about the bill," Neira told Reuters.
Ecuador is counting on oil, its biggest export, for nearly a third of its 2002 budget, and hopes for a boom in output once the pipeline is completed.
The pipeline will more than double its crude transport capacity, and is expected to usher this nation of 12 million people into an era of stability and growth, after the country was hard-hit by a 1999 economic crisis.
Quito, Ecuador, May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s President Gustavo Noboa used his line-item veto power to assign 70 percent of revenue from a new oil pipeline to reduce government debt, which may help wrap up a $240 million international loan agreement.
Noboa`s changes to the legislation fix how the money from the pipeline is spent, rather than leaving it up to the president`s discretion as Congress`s version of the bill did. Congress could still override the veto.
``The proposal to reduce our debt is so we can free up resources to improve the lives of the Ecuadorean people,`` said Noboa during a news conference at the presidential palace.
The president vetoed the measure in response to pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which demanded approval of a fixed framework for oil revenue in order to wrap up a $240 million standby loan agreement. Congress has 30 days to get a two-thirds majority, or 82 votes, to overturn the veto.
Ecuador has public debt of $14 billion, or 78 percent of gross domestic product and owes as much as $1 billion to the national social security institute.
Noboa allotted 20 percent of the money from the new pipeline for a rainy day fund to cover government expenses when oil prices are low, and 10 percent for health and education projects.
The OCP transnational pipeline, slated to begin operation in September 2003, should generate $800 million for the Ecuadorean government during its first 20 years of operation, according to the CEA Study Center in Quito.
The Andean nation has been in talks with the IMF for a new standby loan agreement since the beginning of the year to fill an estimated financing gap of $500 million for this year.
Bob Traa, the head of the IMF mission in Ecuador, said the fund would be analyzing the legislation.
Analysts say the changes are an improvement on the version approved by Congress and are likely to win IMF approval.
``It`s better than expected, I think it will be completely acceptable to the IMF,`` said Jose Cerritelli, a Latin America analyst at Bear Stearns & Co. ``The only thing that remains is for Congress to approve the veto which I think is very likely.``
Noboa also used the line-item veto to relax the limit set by Congress to restrict future increases in government spending. The veto increases the permitted growth of inflation-adjusted state spending to 3.5 percent from the 2.5 percent annually approved by congress.
Die Wahl rückt näher, Gutierrez liegt scheinbar uneinholbar in Führung.
In Brasilien habe ich vor der Wahl gekauft, weil ich die Angst vor Lula übertrieben fand und in Ecuador bin ich seit kurzem auch mit dabei. Sonst noch jemand investiert?
Morgen werden die Zinsen für die ECU 12 fällig, ex geht der Kurs hoffentlich ein bisschen nach oben (bei der 12% Brasilien 06 konnte man das heute jedenfalls beobachten)
(Adds congressional results from paragraph 9, edits)
By Amy Taxin
QUITO, Ecuador, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s presidential campaign descended into mud-slinging on Tuesday as the candidates -- a banana tycoon and a former coup leader -- traded accusations of marital problems and forgery.
In the Nov. 24 vote, Ecuadoreans will choose between Alvaro Noboa, the Andean country`s richest man, and Lucio Gutierrez, who aided an Indian uprising that ousted the president in 2000. Gutierrez has a 20 points lead in the polls which show about 25 percent of voters are still undecided.
Noboa called Gutierrez a "Communist" after the two took the top slots in a first electoral round on Oct. 20 to qualify for the run-off, but since then campaigning has been fairly civil in the turbulent nation of 12 million.
That changed when the populist Noboa accused Gutierrez of verbally abusing his own wife, which the retired colonel denied.
Gutierrez in turn accused Noboa of forging documents to cheat his siblings out of their father`s wealth, a touchy subject as Noboa has been embroiled in a family conflict over the inheritance.
"They started this negative campaign calling me a Communist, and they lost. Now they`re trying to get into my family life and they`re going to lose," Gutierrez said in a television interview on Monday night.
The insults overshadowed the candidates` vague proposals on ways to obtain an International Monetary Fund loan to keep the economy afloat and alleviate the poverty afflicting 60 percent of Ecuadoreans.
The new leader will need to get Ecuador`s wobbly economy on track. The country adopted the U.S. dollar in 2000 amid a severe economic crisis. Ecuador`s last two elected leaders were toppled amid popular uprisings.
OLD PARTIES DOMINATE CONGRESS
Meanwhile election officials released results of the Oct. 20 election for Congress, showing that traditional parties won the bulk of seats, posing a challenge to the two presidential candidates who have both crusaded against politicians.
Election Tribunal officials unofficially disclosed the results, which took more than three weeks to establish after collecting information from provincial centers and tallying the congressional breakdown.
The three biggest parties, whose candidates were defeated by Gutierrez and Noboa, took more than half the 100 seats. The biggest party, the right-of-center Social Christians, took 25 seats. The Congress takes office in January.
Social Christians -- led by hard-liner Leon Febres Cordero who was president from 1984 to 1988 -- gained the presidency of the fragmented legislature, which many Ecuadoreans see as inefficient and corrupt.
The populist Roldosista party -- run by former president Abdala Bucaram, who is in exile in Panama to avoid corruption charges -- won 16 votes, while the Quito-based left-of-center Democratic Left party pulled 14.
Whether Gutierrez or Noboa wins, he will have to seek alliances with the big parties to get bills pushed through Congress or could face a stalemate.
(Additional reporting by Brenda Sempertegui)
((Quito newsroom, email@example.com, 593 22 431 753 x114))
Wednesday, 13 November 2002 02:49:21
Quito, 25. Nov (Reuters) - Der ehemalige Oberst (korrekt) Lucio Gutierrez hat die Präsidentschaftswahl in Ecuador am Sonntag gewonnen.
Gutierrez erhielt 54,3 Prozent der abgebenen Stimmen, wie das Wahltribunal nach Auszählung von 97 Prozent der Stimmen mitteilte. Sein Konkurrent, der Bananenfabrikant und Milliardär Alvaro Noboa, habe 45,7 Prozent der Stimmen erhalten. "Meine Regierung wird eine der nationalen Einheit sein", sagte Gutierrez einem lokalen Fernsehsender. Sie werde ehrliche Geschäftsleute, ehrliche Banker und soziale Bewegungen umfassen. Gutierrez hatte im Wahlkampf kostenlose Gesundheitsversorgung und günstige Wohnungen versprochen sowie der Korruption den Kampf angesagt. Der 45-jährige Gutierrez hatte besonders bei der indianischen Bevölkerung Stimmen gewonnen.
Trotz anfänglicher Zweifel, zeigten sich ausländische Investoren mit Gutierrez als Wahlsieger zufrieden. Noboa werde mit Populismus und Vetternwirtschaft verbunden, sagten Analysten in New York. Gutierrez hatte sich im Wahlkampf um das Vertrauen ausländischer Anleger und der USA bemüht. Er kündigte an, den US-Dollar entgegen früherer Äußerungen als Landeswährung beizubehalten und erklärte, Ecuador werde sich einer künftigen freien Handelszone der amerikanischen Staaten anschließen. Zudem hatte er bei einem Besuch der New Yorker Wall Street erklärt, sein Land werden seinen Verbindlichkeiten nachkommen und mit dem Internationalen Währungsfonds einen Kredit aushandeln.
Der ehemalige Oberst war 2000 an einem Putsch gegen die Regierung beteiligt gewesen und hatte deswegen eine sechsmonatige Haftstrafe verbüßt. Gutierrez war der Armee mit 15 beigetreten und hatte im Wahlkampf stets seine Uniform getragen. Diese werde er nun nicht mehr brauchen, sagte Gutierrez.
Ecuador gilt als eines der instabilsten Länder Südamerikas. Trotz reicher Ölvorkommen und der Bananen-Industrie leben rund 60 Prozent der Bevölkerung in Armut. Seit 1999 sind Hunderttausende Menschen in die USA oder nach Spanien ausgewandert.
Monday, 25 November 2002 07:54:17
Der Übergang zwischen den Regierungen läuft nicht sonderlich gentlementlike ab. Der Nachfolger schiebt (wohl zurecht) einiges der Vorgängerregierung in die Schuhe, das 2002er Budget enthält einige Schattenhaushalte bzw. noch nicht geleistete Zahlungen. Immerhin ist das, was der neue Präsident erzählt näher an den Vorstellungen des IWF, als zu befürchten gewesen wäre.
Meine Spekulation geht dahin, dass die multilateralen Schulden das Hauptproblem für Ecuador darstellen (insbesondere die 2003er Tilgungen) und die nur relativ geringen Anleiheschulden in ihrer Bedienung bewältig bar sind. Ein Default auf die Anleihen würde Ecuador in den nächsten 2-3 Jahren wenig Ersparnis bringen. Weiterhin halte ich -bei entsprechendem Wohlverhalten- eine IWF Vereinbarung für möglich; ich denke das Beispiel Argentinien hat auch beim IWF gezeigt, dass es besser ist den Default Fall zu verhindern. Als dritten Punkt sehe ich die z.Zt. hohen Ölpreise, die einige Windfallprofits für Ecuador erzeugen. Die Ölpreise können natürlich auch schnell wieder fallen, wenn sich die Weltpolitische Lage entspannt - dann nimmt aber auch die Riskaversion wieder ab (positiv für EM Anleihen) und ausserdem dürfte gegen Ende des Jahres die zusätzliche Ölpipeline in Betrieb genommen werden.
noch-n-zocker, hast Du die "Dinger" noch?
eine Frage zu ECU 30. Meine Infos zu dieser Anleihe habe ich maxblue entnommen. Als Kupontyp wird Stufenzins angegeben. In einem Forum habe ich gelesen, daß der Kupon ab 2006 10% betragen soll. Deinem Posting wiederum entnehme ich die Bedingungen für den Fall eines evtl. Defaults. Ich gehe davon aus, daß alle diese Infos in den Anleihebedingungen enthalten sind. Aber diese auf die Schnelle zu erhalten, ist nicht ganz einfach. Speziell bei Ecuador-Anleihen gab es doch vor einigen Jahren den Ärger mit Synthetischen-Anleihen. Viele Anleger wurden dabei um ihr Geld gebracht. Aus diesem Grund meine Frage: Kannst Du mir eine Quelle nennen, die die Details zu der ECU 30 enthält?
Den Step-up habe ich im ersten Posting diesen Treads aufgelistet:
526864 Ecuador 30
08/01 bis 08/02 5.00%
08/02 bis 08/03 6.00%
08/03 bis 08/04 7.00%
08/04 bis 08/05 8.00%
08/05 bis 08/06 9.00%
08/06 bis Endfälligkeit 10.00%
Zahlung halbjährlich (15.2./15.8.)
Zusätzliche Bonds im Defaultfall:
Prior to (and including) the fourth anniversary of the
Issue Date: 30%
From (but excluding) the fourth anniversary of the Issue
Date to (but including) the seventh anniversary of the
Issue Date: 20%
From (but excluding) the seventh, anniversary of the Issue
Date to (but including) the eleventh anniversary of the
Issue Date :10%
Sonst ist mir nichts im Prospekt aufgefallen. Falls Du den Anleiheprospekt willst stell Deine Email hier rein (oder per BM), dann maile ich ihn Dir.
Es gibt da übrigens noch einen USD-Bond bis Nov. 03- kennt aber kaum jemand. Steht so 85,kann man glaub nur im telehandel kaufen. Ist bestimmt rel sicher, aber vom Potential her uninteressant für mich,da ich von einer starken URU-Entwicklung ausgehe.
WKN hab ich leider von dem 03er nicht.
Ecuador Announces Spending Cuts to Narrow $2 Bln Financing Gap
By Rachel Dex
Quito, Ecuador, Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s President Lucio Gutierrez raised gasoline prices, cut public sector wages and announced plans to raise taxes in a bid to close a $2.0 billion financing gap for this year and to secure a multilateral loan agreement.
The measures, effective immediately, include increasing the price of high-octane fuel by 25 percent to $1.77 per gallon, standard fuel by 18 percent to $1.32 per gallon, and diesel by 3 percent to 93 cents per gallon. The government will also shave 20 percent off the salary of public-sector workers earning more than $1000 per month.
``If we don`t make this decision we won`t have the money to pay the social obligations of the state, the economic situation of the country is so serious,`` Gutierrez said during a national television address aired repeatedly between Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Gutierrez, who was sworn into office last Wednesday, has warned that without both tough measures and an International Monetary Fund loan agreement the government will struggle to meet budget commitments this year, which include $2.1 billion in debt service.
Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo, who announced details of the decree together with Gutierrez, said the package also included a ban on public-sector wage increases, a gradual reduction in the number of public-sector workers and a transfer of all non- productive assets of the state to the central government in a bid to narrow the gap.
``This is a good sign, the government appears to be facing up to the fiscal crisis with the appropriate measures, these are orthodox reforms which are designed to be in line with the multilateral demands,`` said Maria de la Paz Vela, an economic analyst at Quito-based consultancy Multiplica.
Pozo blamed the financing gap on actions by previous administrations, including $750 million of unpaid bills from the last government, of which he said $400 million are `illegal` and won`t be paid.
The new finance minister also announced the economic targets agreed to with the IMF for the new standby loan agreement, which the government hopes will unlock multilateral funds of up to $500 million.
``The agreement will be based on a year-end inflation target of between 6 and 8 percent, economic growth for this year of between 3.5 and 4.0 percent and an average price of oil of $18 per barrel with an export volume estimated at 105 million barrels.``
Pozo also announced plans to send a series of reforms to congress, including a bill to reform the customs service and a tax-reform bill, which would introduce a new tax on luxury cars and a new tax on property larger than 200 square meters, though he didn`t provide details.
The government said the goals of the economic-reform program were to reduce poverty, cut inflation and create jobs, with an average economic growth rate of 5 percent expected for the next five years.
Thursday February 6, 9:36 pm ET
(Updates with background, comments throughout)
QUITO, Ecuador, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo said on Thursday the nation had secured approval from International Monetary Fund management on a letter of intent needed to obtain a vital $200 million loan.
The cash-strapped nation still needs approval from the IMF`s board of directors to obtain the loan deal, which would help cover a $2 billion financing gap and enable the country to meet payments on its $11 billion foreign debt this year.
"Tonight, the IMF`s (First Deputy Managing Director) Anne Krueger signed the letter of intent and approved the letter of intent with Ecuador", Pozo said in a telephone interview with local television station Ecuavisa.
This Andean nation has taken tough austerity measures in an effort to secure the loan, which is expected to open the door to another $300 million in multilateral credits the country needs to pay close to $1.5 billion in debt principal in 2003.
New President Lucio Gutierrez has made obtaining the loan a top priority since he took office on Jan. 15, denouncing his predecessor for leaving a stack of unpaid bills while hiking wages, thereby threatening a delicate fiscal balance.
Gutierrez has taken austerity measures including freezing public sector wages, slashing top bureaucrats` salaries and hiking gasoline prices, which have irritated some leftists and Indians in his governing coalition.
The IMF said last week it had reached an agreement with Ecuador on the economic policies needed for a loan. The 13-month program would include tax, civil service and customs reforms aimed at curbing spending and boosting revenues.
Ecuador`s Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 3.5 and 4.0 percent this year and for annual consumer price inflation to total between 6 and 8 percent as the nation struggles to keep its economy on track under the greenback.
Economic analyst Vicente Albornoz told Reuters via telephone he was not surprised at Gutierrez`s ability to obtain quick approval for a letter of intent but was concerned about the government`s ability to complete an IMF program.
It could be tough for the new leader to push reforms through an opposition-led Congress where his plans to slash the size of the legislature and change how judges are chosen threaten the power of the nation`s biggest political parties.
Gutierrez also must contend with divisions within his own coalition, as his supporters protest to demand government jobs and urge him to ease up on austerity measures.
Gutierrez is expected to meet with IMF Managing Director Horst Koehler on Monday in Washington.
z.B. heute haben wir dann einen Kurs von 3.69CHF 12:30Uhr
vgl. auch http://quotes.ubs.com/quotes/X0=13/X1=sHoMtfl7vcXJYpX4LsjJBp…
By James Tyson
Washington, Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s finance minister, Mauricio Pozo, rejected investor concerns his country`s Congress will torpedo a stricter tax code and other changes required for continued access to $500 million from government- backed lenders.
``We will be true to our reforms,`` Pozo said in an interview with Bloomberg News in Washington. ``We are at this moment dealing with political pressures from Congress.``
President Lucio Gutierrez will show in the next month whether he can dispel investors` doubts by rallying lawmakers behind fiscal austerity and other changes he promised in order to net $500 million from the International Monetary Fund and other Washington-based lenders, said Whitney Kane Gomez, the Andean strategist at Morgan Stanley.
``We see the biggest risk to the near-term Ecuador story as execution risk with regards to the IMF program,`` Gomez said. ``The key risk is that Congress will not want to cooperate with the executive branch.``
Without support for IMF-mandated changes, Gutierrez may lose access to credit that he has said is vital for meeting $2.1 billion in debt payments and other government expenses. Gutierrez, a former army colonel, took office on Jan. 15.
``I can`t say I`m optimistic,`` said John Peta, who helps manage $215 million in emerging market debt at Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston. ``Gutierrez has a lot of challenges ahead of him.``
Congress is scheduled to vote by Feb. 28 on a government budget designed to meet an IMF austerity threshold. It also plans within the next month to consider an IMF-supported bill aimed at curtailing corruption and tax evasion by merging the customs service and tax authority.
``In the next few weeks we expect to get an idea of whether Gutierrez will play hardball with the opposition or whether he will make concessions and meet them halfway,`` Kane Gomez said.
Ecuador bonds have risen 16 percent this year, ranking second among the 33 that are issued by emerging market countries and tracked by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Only the bonds of Cote D`Ivoire have performed better, returning 22 percent.
``We are going in the correct direction and I think in the coming months we will have better results,`` Pozo said.
Gutierrez plans by April to seek approval in Congress for a bill that cuts the government workforce and simplifies a piecemeal payment system by putting government workers on salaries. By the end of August, he plans to send Congress a bill that reduces exemptions and removes other tax loopholes.
To secure IMF aid, Gutierrez last month unveiled a package of fiscal cutbacks that includes a freeze on government wages combined with increases in fuel prices and energy tariffs.
The IMF-mandated austerity program faces resistance from two opposition parties and the Indian movement Pachakutik, the government`s main ally in Congress. Pachakutik has criticized the government wage freeze and a fuel price increase of 32 percent.
By gaining IMF assurances of $200 million in credit last week, Gutierrez secured $300 million from the World Bank, Inter- American Development Bank, and Andean Development Corporation.
kannst Du noch kurz darlegen welche Bonds einem bei einem
Default der 30 jaehrigen Ecuador eingebucht werden.
Interessant waeren fuer mich nur US Staatsanleihen, weltbankanleihen oder aehnliches.
das ist wohl ein kleines Mißverständnis, es werden zusätzliche ECU30 Anleihen eingebucht - Weltbank o.ä. wäre wohl ein Bißchen viel des guten ;-) (dann würden die Kurse übrigens wohl auch ein wenig höher stehen). Es geht in diesem Falle mehr darum, dass die ECU30 relativ zu den ECU12 im Defaultfall besser bzw. weniger schlecht dastehen.
dann ist mir das Chance Risiko Verhaeltnis zu gering, zumal ja Ecuador einen default schon hinter sich hat.
Da gab es schon bessere Zeiten.
Z.B. bei der 401970 und der 401971 wurden noch etwas werthaltigere Assets mit hinzugefuegt.
Aus diesem Grund ist die 401971 besonders interessant, da
momentan der Wert der zugrundeliegenden Zeropostanleihe bei ca.40% liegen duerfte.
Germany agrees to debt forgiveness Germany agrees to debt forgiveness Germany agrees to debt forgiveness Germany agrees to debt forgiveness
The German government has agreed to forgive US$11 million in debt it is owed by Ecuador.It is ap-
parently considering further debt relief.A further US$30 million of bilateral debt to Germany,which is not
eligible for forgiveness,is being restructured.
According to a German embassy official in Quito,the action forms part of a debt swap arrangement
between the two countries,and is also a component of a broader attempt to regularize Ecuador ’s obliga-
tions to Paris Club creditors.Ecuador is thought to be behind on payments on an estimated US$150 mil-
lion in Paris Club commitments.The fact that progress is now being made in tackling this backlog is
good news.One of the prior actions that the government needs to take before the I F agreement can be
signed is a clearance of its Paris Club arrears.
Aus www.dbla.de (daily 17.2.03 der DresdnerLA)
Monday February 17, 12:52 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s U.S. dollar
reserves dropped 9.2 percent to $959 million in the week ended
Feb. 14, the Central Bank reported on Monday.
The following table shows reserve levels for Ecuador, which
adopted the U.S. dollar as its currency in 2000:
Feb 14 $959 mln
Feb 7 $1.056 bln
Jan 30 $1.029 bln
Jan 24 $971 mln
Jan 17 $980 mln
Jan 10 $903 mln
Jan 3 $971 mln
Dec 31, 2002 $1.008 bln
Dec 31, 2001 $1.074 bln
Ecuador Jan. tax receipts up 15.5 pct on yr
Monday February 17, 1:28 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s net tax collection rose 15.5 percent in January to $271 million compared with the first month of 2002, the country`s Internal Revenue Service reported on Monday.
Net tax collection excludes the voluntary application of tax credits.
Ecuador`s most important tax --a 12 percent Value Added Tax-- reeled in $179.4 million in January, 10.8 percent more than a year ago, the Service said in its monthly report.
Ecuador took in $2.7 billion in taxes in 2002, beating budget expectations by more than 8 percent. The Andean nation is due to set goals for 2003 tax collection once the central government budget is approved by the end of February.
Ecuador to Seek Partners to Invest $5.1 Bln to Boost Oil Output
By Rachel Dex
Quito, Ecuador, Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador will seek private partners to invest $5.1 billion to re-open closed wells and develop new tracts to boost output of the state oil company, Energy Minister Carlos Arboleda said.
Arboleda said the government plans to launch four major projects in the coming months. The largest requires investment of $3.57 billion to develop the Ishpingo, Tiputini Tambococha (ITT) oil tract in the Amazon basin, which has estimated reserves of 1.4 billion barrels of heavy crude oil.
``It`s a very big project,`` Arboleda said in an interview. ``We will be asking companies to start presenting offers for the field in the next two months.``
Oil, the Andean nation`s leading export, is the second largest source of government income after taxes, accounting for $1.5 billion, or 22 percent of budgeted revenue this year. Oil output fell 3.1 percent last year due to lower state output.
TEXT-Fitch sees IMF pact improving Ecuador credit
Thu February 20, 2003 05:58 PM ET
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
NEW YORK, Feb 20 - Fitch Ratings said today that, should Ecuador complete two remaining prior actions as part of its agreement with the IMF, the Andean country`s sovereign credit outlook could improve. Fitch currently has a long-term foreign currency sovereign rating of `CCC+` for Ecuador with a Stable Outlook.
Ecuador has signed a letter of intent for a US$200 million IMF program which would make the country eligible for an additional US$230 million in exceptional financing from the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank, closing the expected US$1.37 billion financing gap for 2003. Uncertainty regarding this year`s fiscal financing plan had been a constraint on the `CCC+` long-term foreign currency and `C` short-term foreign currency ratings.
The first prior action is to clear approximately US$150 million in arrears to multilateral and Paris Club creditors. The second is congressional approval of the president`s budget, which includes a public sector wage freeze and a US$18/barrel Ecuador oil price assumption. Ecuador`s oil basket trades at about US$3.20 below West Texas crude. Should congress fail to approve the president`s budget, the executive could veto congress` version, a step that could lead to another congressional vote and delay or even prevent final approval of the program, which is expected to go to the IMF board around March 12. President Gutierrez currently lacks a majority in the divided legislature, making it difficult to predict the fate of legislation with certainty.
The president`s proposed budget projects a non-financial public sector cash surplus of 1.9% of GDP, compared with a reported 1.1% of GDP cash surplus in 2002. When the US$600 million in arrears accumulated last year are considered, however, the non-financial public sector registered a deficit of 1.3% of GDP. The 3.2% of GDP adjustment is therefore quite ambitious. With expenditures expected to rise by 0.2% of GDP this year, all of the adjustment is projected to come from the revenue side. The gasoline price increase enacted in January could yield US$400 million or 1.5% of GDP, and a potential adjustment in cooking fuel could bring in another US$150 million or 0.6% of GDP. No other significant new taxes or changes in rates have been enacted to support increased revenues, however, so additional revenues are likely to come from public enterprises and improved collections. The president has stated his commitment to root out corruption in customs, and transfers from Petroecuador, and the electricity and telephone utilities could also be boosted. Tax reform including the issue of revenue earmarking is a performance criterion for the proposed IMF program, but it is not due until December, so the impact of such a reform would not take effect until 2004.
The IMF will conduct quarterly reviews of adherence to program performance criteria beginning in June and if interim fiscal and structural goals are not met, ongoing disbursements could be halted. In addition to tax reform, structural performance requirements include labor reform, tariff reform, liquidating intervened banks, and reform of the electricity and telecommunications sectors. Given Ecuador`s tenuous cash position, disbursement suspensions could lead to delayed payments to creditors.
The ratings could be upgraded if authorities demonstrate progress in implementing the program agreed with the IMF, specifically, in meeting their ambitious fiscal goals; if the government`s cash position is improved; political risks do not increase markedly; and if progress is made on liquidating banks taken over following the 1999-2000 banking crisis.
UPDATE - Ecuador budget cuts debt payments, to little avail
Thursday February 27, 5:17 pm ET
(Updates with details, background in paragraphs 6,9,10)
QUITO, Ecuador, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Congress on Thursday approved a 2003 budget that slashes provisions for paying its debt, but the government is likely to ignore this to meet targets agreed to with the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites).
The budget is at the heart of austerity plans agreed to with the IMF in return for a $200 million loan, due to be approved in March.
The $6.7 billion budget boosts spending by 19 percent from last year`s budget bill. It proposes a cut of 9.2 percent in debt payments by the country that defaulted on some foreign liabilities in 1999.
But a senior Economy Ministry official said creditors had nothing to fear.
"The debt will be serviced, and we`ll have to look at the terms in which the budget was approved. It is we who put the budget into effect and we`ll have to look at the legality of that reassignment of resources," said the official, who asked not to be named.
Ecuador has more than $14 billion in foreign and domestic debt public debt.
Congress cut $207 million from the original $2.24 billion assigned for debt payments in the bill, instead earmarking funds for social spending and education.
The budget assumed oil prices of $18 a barrel compared with $33 a barrel for Oriente crude currently. Oil is the country`s main export and the source of more than 20 percent of government revenues.
Ecuador is forecasting 2003 crude output of 152 million barrels.
The budget forecasts 2003 growth of 3.5 percent to 4 percent of gross domestic product, and inflation of 6 percent to 8 percent.
Bin verblüfft was zur Zeit für manche Schuldner gezahlt wird.
Wed March 12, 2003 11:49 PM ET
QUITO, Ecuador, March 12 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Congress rejected on Wednesday a government plan to eliminate the customs agency and passed a softer version of a bill required under a $200 million loan program the country is seeking from the IMF.
This Andean nation is awaiting approval from the International Monetary Fund`s board of directors on a crucial loan program that would extend until March 2004 and require the approval of customs, civil service and tax reforms.
The customs bill was seen as the easiest of these reforms for President Lucio Gutierrez to push through a fractious Congress where the retired army colonel has little support.
But powerful coastal lawmakers have resisted attempts to bring the customs agency under the control of the hard-line Quito-based Internal Revenue Service, which has cracked down on evasion and raised tax revenues in recent years.
Lawmakers voted to keep the current Ecuadorean Customs Corp. but give the government more power to crack down on evaders by charging inspectors, importers and exporters fines if they fail to share data with the Internal Revenue Service.
Nearing a midnight deadline, 51 of 88 lawmakers present voted against Gutierrez`s proposal to eliminate the customs agency, calling it an unconstitutional attempt to subdue regional players to a centralized authority in Quito.
It is unclear whether the bill passed by Congress will meet the approval of the IMF or Gutierrez, who has said he might veto sections if the revised version fails to maintain his plan`s "spirit". He has 10 days to approve or veto the bill.
The customs bill formed part of Gutierrez`s crusade against corruption and evasion in customs that reports say cost the cash-strapped nation some $600 million each year.
Also under the 100-member legislature`s version of the bill, the military would take over customs` security for 180 days to help train guards but not handle security on a permanent basis, as Gutierrez had suggested.
The IMF`s board of directors is expected to vote on whether to approve Ecuador`s loan deal next week, which the country needs to help cover its debt payments this year.
Wed March 12, 2003 07:04 PM ET
QUITO, Ecuador, March 12 (Reuters) -- Petroecuador`s crude exports rose 21.9 percent in February to 128,600 barrels per day (bpd) compared with a month earlier, the state oil company said in a statement on Wednesday.
Petroecuador reeled in $114.3 million for its crude exports in February, the company said in a statement.
In January, the state oil firm received $90.4 million for crude exports at an average per-barrel price of $27.61.
Crude oil is this Andean nation`s biggest export.
Thu March 13, 2003 03:04 PM ET
QUITO, Ecuador, March 12 (Reuters) - The Andean Development Corporation (CAF) said on Wednesday it had approved a $2 billion loan for Ecuador to help finance the country`s social and economic programs for 2003-2006.
"The $2 billion program includes several loans over a four-year period," CAF President Enrique Garcia told a news conference in the Ecuadorean capital Quito.
President Lucio Gutierrez, who took office on Jan. 15, has won praise from the International Monetary Fund for his austere economic policies. Ecuador hopes to soon clinch a $200 million with the IMF.
About 18 percent of CAF`s loan portfolios are with Ecuador.
MF may boost loan to help Ecuador with Paris Club
Thursday March 13, 7:07 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, March 13 (Reuters) - Ecuador is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) for it to expand an anticipated $200 million loan so that the country can pay debts to the Paris Club creditor nations, the Central Bank`s president said on Thursday.
The IMF board is due to meet next Wednesday in Washington to approve the loan, which is key for Ecuador to keep up to date with payments on its $14 billion public debt.
There is a possibility this loan could be increased in order to allow Ecuador to pay of part of its debt to the Paris Club, Central Bank head Mauricio Yepes said.
The country has used $56 million of its treasury funds to pay off much of $80 million in overdue payments due to the club. The remaining back payments could either come from the IMF, or directly from state coffers, according to Yepes.
"The good news is that the Fund itself could provide us with the resources to make that payment," he said, in reference to debts with the Paris Club, which is an association of government creditors.
"But we are negotiating," he said, without providing more details.
The Paris Club is also due to discuss reprogramming of debt payments during the 13 months of the IMF accord.
"We have an agreement with the Paris Club to restructure all the maturities in 2003," Yepes said, explaining that Ecuador could ask for about $100 million in maturities to be reprogrammed.
Ecuador`s debt with the Paris Club totals $1.3 billion.
Ecuador, which defaulted on some foreign debt in 1999, has restructured debt with the Paris Club seven times, and has failed to meet the terms of six of these agreements.
The 13-month IMF program would also grant Ecuador access to $300 million in loans from other multilateral agencies.
The poverty-stricken nation must make $2.24 billion in debt payments this year.
ist nun wirklich keine Ueberraschung. Und wenn jetzt noch der Oelpreis runtergeht dann gibt´s halt wieder einmal einen default...
Ich habs ja schon mal angesprochen, ist aber schon eine Zeit lang her:
Ecuador ist ein heisses Eisen, ich wuerde dort keinen Cent anlegen.
"ist nun wirklich keine Ueberraschung. "
ich weiß nicht was Du meinst, aber die letzten Meldungen sind in der Tendenz eher positiv. Bremsendes Element bleibt die Auseinandersetzung zwischen Kongress und Präsident.
"Und wenn jetzt noch der Oelpreis runtergeht dann gibt´s halt wieder einmal einen default..."
M.E. wesentlich wichtiger ist die Fiskaldisziplin und das Strukturreformen umgesetzt werden und die Frage, ob die Zahlungsfälligkeiten mit den IFI’s in diesem Jahr entsprechend geregelt (sprich verlängert werden können). Der Ölpreis ist mit 18$ im Budget angesetzt, da müsste der Ölpreis schon deutlich fallen (was aber nicht ausgeschlossen ist).
"Ich habs ja schon mal angesprochen, ist aber schon eine Zeit lang her:"
Ja ich erinnere mich, Du hattest das Datum der Präsidentschaftswahlen auf 2004 gelegt ;-)
"Ecuador ist ein heisses Eisen, "
Da stimme ich Dir im begrenztem Maß zu.
Friday March 21, 6:08 pm ET
(Adds details, background)
WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Friday it has approved a $205 million loan for Ecuador, helping the Andean nation plug a financing gap and paving the way for $330 million in other loans.
The IMF said in a brief statement that the approval will make $41 million of the 13-month loan available immediately.
"The executive board of the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) today approved a 13-month, $205 million stand-by arrangement for Ecuador to support the country`s economic and financial program through March 2004," the lender said.
The loan will help Ecuador access another $330 million in loans from other multilateral credits like the World Bank (News - Websites) -- cash it needs to help pay its debts.
In return for the loan, Ecuador agreed to shore up its weak budget by promising to only raise education spending, by up to $165 million, if spending cuts are made elsewhere to offset the expense. Authorities also promised to take steps to dismantle state-held banks, which crashed in a 1998-2000 banking crisis.
Ecuador is relying on the IMF loan to sustain investor confidence and ease a cash crunch plaguing the government since President Lucio Gutierrez took office in January and inherited a stack of unpaid bills from his predecessor. The previous government had failed to negotiate a pact with the IMF due to a failure to implement agreed-upon economic reforms.
Wall Street analysts saw the loan as vital to help avoid a debt default. Ecuador missed payments on its Brady and Eurobonds during a 1999 economic crisis and restructured those debts a year later.
24 Mar 2003 5:14 AM
Fitch Ratings-London/New York-March 24, 2003: Fitch Ratings has today revised the Rating Outlook on Ecuador`s `CCC+` Long-term foreign currency sovereign rating to Positive from Stable, given IMF approval of a US$205 million Stand-by program.
The IMF program makes Ecuador eligible for US$230m in financing from the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank. The Andean Development Bank (CAF) plans to make up to US$500m per year available to Ecuador during the next four years. Thus, the expected US$1.35 billion public sector financing gap for 2003 (which includes clearing arrears) is largely covered, and 2004 financing needs appear within reach, as long as fiscal targets and other performance criteria are met. Prior to the announcement of the program, uncertainty regarding this year`s fiscal financing plan had been a constraint on Ecuador`s rating. Furthermore, given concerns about a robust implementation of the program, Fitch will monitor economic policy performance closely, as well as IMF quarterly reviews beginning in June 2003. According to Ecuador`s Letter of Intent (LOI) with the IMF, as amended on March 13, the government has met all seven `prior actions` required for Board approval. A critical prior action was to clear approximately US$150m in arrears to Paris Club creditors. With the paydown of US$52m in arrears since the beginning of the year, the Board was satisfied that this action was met, in spite of additional arrears generated this year and the fact that further Paris Club rescheduling appears unlikely. The government has committed to paying the balance of arrears (roughly US$90m) within four weeks.
A second critical prior action was to submit a customs service reform law to Congress. Congressional opposition to this measure raises concerns about its ultimate passage. Thirdly, congressional passage of President Gutierrez`s 2003 budget was another completed prior action, in spite of containing an authorization to spend an additional US$165m for education. The LOI was amended to include a commitment to reduce other spending categories in a like amount. And, in spite of recent public sector wage demands, the government has agreed with the IMF to make any wage adjustment part of a comprehensive civil service reform, which should prevent the wage bill from rising dramatically. A fourth important adjustment to the LOI that underpinned Board approval was the extension of deadlines for independent auditors and trust managers to be selected for managing assets from the 1999-2000 banking crisis.
The 2003 budget projects a non-financial public sector cash surplus of 1.9% of GDP, compared with a 1.1% surplus in 2002. When last year`s US$600 million in arrears are considered, the scale of the adjustment this year, 3.2% of GDP, appears ambitious. With expenditures expected to rise by 0.2% of GDP this year, the adjustment is to come on the revenue side. The gasoline price increase enacted in January could yield US$400 million or 1.5% of GDP. No other significant tax changes have been enacted, so additional revenues are likely to come from public enterprises and improved collections. Tax reform is a performance criterion in the IMF program, but is not due until end-November, so the impact would not come until 2004. Oil revenues may well exceed what was budgeted this year, given an average price for Ecuadoran crude of US$29 per barrel so far this year, compared to a budgeted US$18 per barrel. Yet oil prices slid with the onset of the Iraq conflict, with Ecuadoran crude falling to US$20.00 per barrel. The fiscal responsibility law passed last year requires that a large portion of oil revenues in excess of those budgeted go to public debt reduction. If fiscal and structural goals are not met during the IMF`s quarterly reviews, disbursements could be halted. In addition to tax reform, structural performance criteria include labor and tariff reform, liquidating intervened banks, and reform of the utilities sectors. Given Ecuador`s tenuous cash position, disbursement suspensions would lead to debt servicing pressures. The rating could be upgraded if the IMF program is fully implemented - in particular, meeting fiscal targets, preventing new arrears, and liquidating intervened banks. Recent modifications to the program, including the authorization of spending increases and a postponement of arrears clearage, as well as political tensions, raise concerns about full implementation. The rating Outlook could revert to stable in the event of significant policy slippage and doubts about multilateral disbursements.
CONTACT: Roger M. Scher +1-212-908-0240 or Theresa Paiz-Fredel +1-212-908-0534, New York / Richard Fox, London +44 (0)20 7417 4222
Sharp pick-up in exports to neighboring countries
Ecuador ’s exports to Andean countries staged a sharp recovery in January. Deliveries to its five An-
dean partners (Bolivia,Colombia,Ecuador,Peru and Venezuela)rose 70%yoy. The increase ap-
pears to reflect a big jump in exports to Peru,which absorbs around three-quarters of Ecuador ’s
total sales to the Andean group.In turn,the recovery in growth in Peru (GDP expanded by 5.2%last
year)was presumably a key factor behind this positive performance.
Quelle: Dresdner Bank LA daily 030327.pdf
Sun April 13, 2003 12:14 PM ET
WASHINGTON, April 13 (Reuters) - Ecuador moved closer to a $1.2-billion World Bank loan, the economy minister said on Sunday, as the nation prepared to put behind it a messy 1998 default and initiate talks with the Paris Club of debtor countries.
The Paris Club negotiations, which will seek to put off principal payments due over the next year, are set for April 24.
Ecuador has obtained the International Monetary Fund`s blessing on its economic program, a required step before the World Bank can green-light the World Bank loan, earmarked for for social programs and extra liquidity.
Speaking to reporters at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, Mauricio Pozo said he met with Anoop Singh, the IMF`s top Western Hemisphere official.
IMF officials expressed their "total support for the Ecuadorean economic program ... This paves the way for (the IMF) to issue a favorable criteria for the World Bank, so that we can conclude" a three-year lending package, the minister said.
The minister said the talks with the Paris Club, which groups together the rich creditor nations, will aim to put off payments of $100 million to $150 million. Clearing the Paris Club hurdle is crucial to renegotiate with foreign private creditors, who hold around $4 billion in defaulted debt.
"This presentation and restructuring will bring us up to date on all future payments to the Paris Club," he said. "This will open the way for all debt-swap operations, which is one of the priorities of the administration."
Ecuador President Luis Gutierrez took office in January and quickly clinched a $205-million deal with the IMF. The country, which uses the dollar as its currency, is aiming for a primary fiscal surplus of 5.2 percent of gross domestic product, which Pozo said was the highest in Latin America.
In addition, the government has saved $120 million from an oil windfall so far this year, and the proceeds will be used to whittle away at the country`s debt burden, which has fallen from 120 percent of GDP in 2000 to an expected 52 percent at the end of this year.
In addition to the $1.2 billion World Bank loan, the country has obtained commitments from the Inter-American Development Bank for $600 million.
Thursday April 24, 10:36 pm ET
By Glenn Somerville
(Adds quotes from news conference)
QUITO, Ecuador, April 24 (Reuters) - Ecuador could attract much more foreign investment, particularly from oil producers, if it took aggressive action to curb corruption, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Thursday.
Snow met Ecuadorean President Lucio Gutierrez and Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo on Thursday and offered encouragement afterward about the government`s efforts to introduce free-market reforms.
The U.S. Treasury chief said at a press conference that Ecuador had chosen "the right economic policies" and by focusing on them it had a greater chance at future prosperity.
Earlier, Snow had strong words about the country`s need to step up its efforts at opening markets and making it possible for foreign companies to do business on fair terms.
"What he (Gutierrez) needs to do -- and he campaigned on it -- first of all is to deal with the corruption issue, which is a wet blanket on investment," Snow said, "That`s probably the most serious issue."
Ecuador has substantial oil reserves, and many foreign firms have expressed interest in investing, but they have also complained about difficulty doing business in the Latin American country.
Gutierrez is committed, under International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) loan terms, to seek customs, taxes and pension reforms that would go some way to creating a more open business climate.
U.S. BUSINESS COMPLAINS
At a meeting with local and U.S. executives from industries including oil production, retailing, pharmaceuticals and banking, Snow heard repeated complaints that Ecuadorean authorities had to show more respect for law and contracts.
Otherwise, it would become difficult to persuade foreign investors to keep pouring in new capital, notwithstanding the country`s abundant petroleum and other reserves, said some of the businessmen, who did not want to be publicly identified.
Snow held a news conference late on Thursday with Pozo, after meeting Gutierrez. The U.S. Treasury secretary heads for Colombia on Friday for the final day of a three-country swing through Brazil, Ecuador and Colombia.
Oil-industry representatives alleged the government was not meeting its commitments to make payments to producers and warned that, with a second major oil pipeline due for completion at mid-year, Ecuador could end up with neither one fully utilized and risk its chances of a potential doubling of production capacity that would give its economy a major boost.
Asked how the oil companies` complaints can be resolved, Pozo indicated that he favored having an international body broker a resolution.
The United States sees Ecuador`s substantial oil reserves as a major advantage for the Andean country that must be exploited more fully as it seeks economic stability.
"If (Ecuador) would open up the opportunity to foreign investment, I think foreign capital would flow in, particularly in oil," Snow said.
In both Brazil and Ecuador, Snow said a major purpose of his visit was to offer U.S. support for the countries` efforts to enact reforms that will get their economies onto a steadier and stronger growth track. Ecuador defaulted on part of its foreign debt payments in 1999.
Snow said it was encouraging that Ecuador had secured a $200 million loan deal from the IMF and that it was taking steps to reduce its debt load.
He said he felt convinced Ecuador was fully committed to all the terms of its IMF loan and said Pozo had raised the issue of seeking relief through the Paris Club of creditor nations from its heavy debt load.
"We indicated that we would be happy to enter into a dialogue with the minister and his colleagues," Snow said.
On June 13, 2003, the Paris Club concluded an agreement with the Government of the Republic of Ecuador. This agreement consolidates around $ 81 million of principal maturities falling due to official bilateral creditors between March 1, 2003 and March 31, 2004, of which 85% are commercial loans.
The Paris Club agreement follows the International Monetary Fund`s approval of the Stand-by Arrangement on March 21, 2003 and completes the financing expectations during the period. The consolidation is expected to make an important positive contribution to Ecuador`s economic outlook and to strengthen its debt sustainability.
The rescheduling is conducted under the so-called "Houston terms": non-ODA credits are to be repaid over 18 years, including 3 years of grace and progressive payments, at the appropriate market rate; ODA credits are to be repaid over 20 years, including 10 years of grace, at a rate at least as favourable as the concessional rates applying to those loans.
This rescheduling is expected to reduce debt service due to Paris Club creditors between March 1, 2003 and March 31, 2004 to $ 272 million. Amounts paid include notably post-cut-off date maturities and flows on the previous Paris Club agreement concluded in September 2000 as well as moratorium interest on the consolidations.
The Paris Club Creditors agreed to continue to monitor closely the external debt situation of the country notably on the basis of an updated debt sustainability analysis by the IMF in 2004.
On a voluntary and bilateral basis, each creditor may also undertake debt for nature, debt for aid, debt for equity swaps or other debt swaps.
As in any Paris Club agreement, Ecuador agreed to seek comparable treatment from non-Paris Club categories of creditors.
1. The Paris Club was formed in 1956. It is an informal group of creditor governments from major industrialized countries. It meets on a monthly basis in Paris with debtor countries in order to agree with them on restructuring their debts.
2. The members of the Paris Club which participated in the reorganization of Ecuador`s debt were representatives of the governments of Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States of America.
Observers at the meeting were representatives of the governments of Belgium, Brazil, Denmark and the Russian Federation as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Secretariat of the UNCTAD and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The delegation of Ecuador was headed by Mr. Mauricio POZO, Minister of Economy and Finance. The meeting was chaired by Mrs Stéphane PALLEZ, Assistant Secretary for European and International Affairs at the French Treasury of the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry, Co-Chairperson of the Paris Club.
1. A Stand By Arrangement was approved by the International Monetary Fund on March 21, 2003.
2. The total stock of Ecuador`s external public sector debt was estimated as of end 2002 to be US$ 11.4 billion (source : IMF Staff Report for the 2003 Article IV Consultation and Request for SBA, published on the IMF web site on April 7, 2003, www.imf.org). The stock of debt owed to Paris Club creditors as at January 1st, 2003 was estimated to be US$ 2 730 million, out of which US$ 1 300 million of pre-cut off date debt, and US$ 1 430 million of post-cut off date debt.
The cut off date (January 1, 1983 for Ecuador) is used by Paris Club creditors for the sole internal purposes of the Paris Club agreement. When a debtor country first meets with Paris Club creditors, the "cut off date" is defined and is not changed in subsequent Paris Club treatments and credits granted after this cut off date are not subject to rescheduling. Thus, the cut off date helps restore access to credit for these debtor countries.
3. Interest rates to be applied on the restructuring are to be negotiated with each creditor country by the Government of Ecuador in the bilateral agreements implementing the Paris Club agreement. ODA loans will be rescheduled at a below-market interest rate not higher than the interest rate of the original credits. Other loans will be rescheduled at a market interest rate (known as "appropriate market rate") defined on the basis of risk-free rates for the currency considered, plus a management margin.
4. As in any Paris Club agreement, Ecuador agreed to seek comparable treatment from non-Paris Club creditors. In the present case, the comparable treatment shall imply an equivalent contribution on those obligations due to private creditors which do not result from previous consolidation deemed comparable.
Der 2012 Bonds wartet jetzt schon wieder mit einer Rendite von 16% auf.
Kaufen wuerde ich die Teile dennoch nicht.
Equador ist fuer mich eines der heissesten Kandidaten fuer den naechsten default mit kapitalschnitt.
Kannst Du mir bitte den Prospekt zur Ecuador
Anleihe 2030 per Mail schicken: firstname.lastname@example.org
Hab in einem Deiner Postings gelesen, Du hättest ihn.
Danke und Gruss
August 1, 2003
International Monetary Fund
700 19th Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20431 USA
IMF Completes First Review of Ecuador`s Stand-By Arrangement, Approves US$42 Million Disbursement and Grants Waivers
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed today the first review of Ecuador`s performance under a 13-month SDR 151 million (about US$211 million) Stand-By Arrangement, approved in March 2003 (see Press Release No. 03/39). This decision entitles Ecuador to the release of a further SDR 30.2 million (about US$42 million), which would bring the total amount disbursed under the program to SDR 60.4 million (about US$85 million).
In completing the review, the Executive Board also approved Ecuador`s request for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria and waivers of applicability, until September 15, 2003 of certain end-June, 2003 performance criterion.
Following the Executive Board`s discussion on Ecuador, Anne Krueger, First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, said:
"The government of Ecuador has embarked on an ambitious fiscal and structural reform program to foster economic growth and reduce poverty. However, the authorities have faced significant political and institutional challenges, and performance under the program in the first half of 2003 was uneven. Nevertheless, the authorities remain fully committed to the originally envisaged macroeconomic objectives, and have taken corrective steps to ensure that these can be met. Moreover, despite some delays, good progress is being made in advancing the structural reform agenda.
"In the fiscal area, the government has taken measures to contain the wage bill, reduce goods and services outlays, and start collecting in cash PetroEcuador`s fuel deliveries to the electricity companies. As a result, notwithstanding recent wage and pension increases, the program`s objective of an overall public sector primary surplus of 5¼ percent of GDP in 2003 can still be achieved. Moreover, a new law to overhaul customs administration has already been passed, and progress is being made to pass legislation for civil service and tax reforms. These reforms should further strengthen the fiscal position in 2004 and lay the foundations to bring down Ecuador`s high public debt, as revenues from the new oil pipeline begin to come on stream, consistent with the Fiscal Responsibility and Transparency Law.
"The authorities are also committed to improving the management and financial condition of the state enterprises in the oil, electricity and telephone sectors. Strong public enterprise reforms will have a positive effect on the public finances and on the country`s productive infrastructure. Finally, welcome progress is being made to auction off restructured loans of closed banks, and to prepare the way for these banks to be liquidated.
"These reforms, together with actions to improve governance and the investment climate and increased focus on progress in strengthening the social security net, will expand Ecuador`s growth potential while broadening the public support for the government`s program," Ms. Krueger stated.
der Kurs der ECU 30 ist auf einem verlockenden Niveau angekommen.
Bei diesen positiven Nachrichten muesste man eigentlich kaufen.
Der Unsicherheitsfaktor ist meinesarachtens momentan nicht mehr Ecuador selber sondern Brasilien die die ganze Region destabilisieren koennten.
die Meldung #70 war mehr oder weniger erwartet. Das Hauptrisiko im Fall von Ecuador liegt in den politischen Instabilitäten und der unzureichenden Machtbasis des Präsidenten. Von aussen betrachtet hat er das aber m.E. bisher ganz gut geschaukelt. Die Mehrzahl der Analysten geht davon aus, dass das IWF Agreement bei den nächsten Reviews (gegen Ende des Jahres) scheitert (nicht wenige haben da aber auch schon bisher falsch gelegen). In jedem Fall sollte man genau beobachten.
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s congress is set to reject President Lucio Gutierrez`s plan to ease restrictions on firing state workers -- a move that political analyst Fernando Bustamante says may prompt the International Monetary Fund to cut the country off from aid.
Lawmakers opposed to the bill, which would also consolidate employee payment into a single salary statement, have enough votes to reject the IMF-backed legislation, according to opposition lawmaker Andres Paez. Legislators postponed the vote from today until tomorrow because there wasn`t a quorum.
``We suggest that the government send a different bill,`` Paez, who heads the labor and social issues committee that considered the bill, said in a telephone interview from Quito.
Hernan Jouve, Gutierrez`s spokesman, declined to comment.
Loss of IMF aid would make the South American country`s efforts to avoid a second debt default in five years more dependent on rising oil prices, said analysts such as Credit Suisse First Boston economist Jan Dehn. Ecuador`s 12 percent bond due 2012 has tumbled 11 cents the past seven weeks to 77.25 cents even as the price of oil, which accounts for 60 percent of government revenue, has surged 30 percent in three months to $32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
``If the oil price falls`` next year to its historic average of $18 a barrel, ``then Ecuador will only just be able to avoid a major problem if it uses every single cent that it has everywhere,`` said Dehn. ``You can get through next year by selling the family silver, but then you will have nothing left.``
The yield on the 2012 bond, a security created in the restructuring after Ecuador`s default in 1999, has risen to 16.94 percent, its highest in four weeks.
Implementation of Gutierrez`s civil service bill is critical for future disbursements from the loan agreement -- the country`s only source of foreign credit since its default - said Bustamante, a political science professor at the San Francisco University in Quito. Without passage of law, Ecuador would need to secure a waiver to keep receiving aid in a $1 billion, four- year loan agreement with the IMF, World Bank and other lenders.
``Without this law, the whole program with the IMF is threatened,`` Bustamante said.
Gutierrez, a former military coup leader who was elected in November, promised to reduce payrolls and build up a budget surplus to keep access to international aid and maintain the country`s system of using the U.S. dollar as its currency.
Ecuador, which has about $11 billion in multilateral and restructured debts, will have a budget surplus of about 1.1 percent of its gross domestic product this year, Dehn said. He forecasts the $27 billion economy will grow about 2.5 percent.
The IMF made trimming payrolls a key point to the loan agreement after the government`s use of the dollar contributed to a doubling of labor costs between the past two years. The IMF estimates that government payroll rose to $2 billion last year from $900 million in 2000.
Those increases, coupled with currency devaluations in countries such as Brazil and Argentina, have cut into the profitability of Ecuadorean industries such as banana, shrimp, coffee and cocoa, Bear Stearns & Co. analyst Jose Cerritelli said in a report.
Facing growing opposition from groups such as native Indians, Gutierrez -- who now dons a business suit instead of the custom-designed military fatigues he wore on the campaign trail - - approved more than $170 million in wage increases for doctors and teachers through next year.
That spending increase also heightens the chances that the IMF will cut off aid to Ecuador this year even though Cerritelli said officials from the Washington-based institution appear to be making extra efforts to support the country after Gutierrez earned the praise of U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow in April. The IMF disbursed $42 million to Ecuador on Friday, just days before today`s congressional vote is likely to put the country out of compliance with the loan agreement.
``The decision seems to be a special effort by the IMF to give Ecuador a break and keep the IMF agreement alive,`` Cerritelli said in a research note. ``Implementation of the IMF program beyond July looks pretty tough.``
Last Updated: August 5, 2003 17:01 EDT
Um mehr geht es ja bis 2006 erst mal nicht.
Thursday August 7, 3:39 pm ET
By Amy Taxin
(Recasts with president`s comments)
QUITO, Ecuador, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Ecuador President Lucio Gutierrez vowed on Thursday to seek alliances with politicians he once called corrupt to keep his unstable nation`s economy on track after losing vital support in Congress from Indian lawmakers.
Gutierrez, a 46-year-old retired army colonel, finds himself virtually alone with just six of 100 seats in a hostile legislature after powerful Indian organizations pulled out of the government on Wednesday over the nation`s IMF loan deal.
Gutierrez told reporters, "We will keep talking with different political parties in Congress. With those who, beyond being from the left or the right, have a clear sense of the country`s objectives."
Ecuador is one of Latin America`s most politically unstable nations and has ousted two of its presidents since 1997. Gutierrez himself gained renown after aiding an Indian uprising in 2000 that toppled then-President Jamil Mahuad.
Analysts say Gutierrez has little choice but to forge ad hoc pacts with the mainstream parties he criticized during last year`s electoral campaign to pass tax and labor bills required under the nation`s International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) program.
"He is at the mercy of pressures and influences," said political analyst Adrian Bonilla, adding that Gutierrez has leaned toward building ties with the center-right Social Christian party in a bid to pass a key labor bill.
"He`s privileged this closeness with the Social Christians but that can be a dangerous relationship... The Social Christians don`t support the president, they just aren`t acting as opposition," Bonilla said.
THREAT OF PROTESTS
Ecuador has had a hard time keeping up with commitments under its $205 million IMF loan, which it needs to pay its debt this year and weather a cash crunch stoked by unpaid bills Gutierrez inherited when he took office in January.
Indians, who are among Ecuador`s poorest citizens but have shown power in numbers, have threatened to lead street protests against Gutierrez`s government if he fails to attend the poor and enacts IMF-required measures like fuel price rises.
They hold 11 seats in Congress that could have been crucial for Gutierrez. The absence of a clear opposition from Indians -- who make up about 25 percent of the population -- could at least have helped him get bills passed, analysts said.
"On balance, these reforms would have been easier to pass with Pachakutik within the government than outside the government," Jan Dehn, emerging market analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York, wrote in a research note.
But Pachakutik, the Indian movement`s political branch, sided against a government-sponsored bill this week and have blasted Gutierrez and his efforts to procure a legislative majority.
"The biggest opposition came from within the government," Interior Minister Felipe Mantilla said in a radio interview.
"You can`t make a majority with one political force. You need a majority, and in the history of the democratic process ... the process has been to seek a majority," Mantilla said.
hasst Du eigentlich schon einen Link gefunden, der die Hoehe der equadorianischen Devisenreserven und der Verschuldung wiedergibt.
Der Bradynetaccount der solche Infos liefern koennte ist mir etwas zu heftig.
zur Verschuldung folgende Meldung:
"Ecuador`s foreign public debt slips in July
Wednesday September 3, 2:32 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s foreign public debt fell in July to $11.192 billion from $11.239 billion in June, the Central Bank reported on Wednesday.
The Andean nation`s public foreign debt was equivalent to 41.8 percent of gross domestic product in July, the bank said on its Web site.
Ecuador restructured its debt in Brady and Eurobonds in 2000 by issuing new global bonds to reduce it by 40.6 percent after the country defaulted on its debt in 1999."
The IMF mission headed by Bob Traa is due to arrive in Quito today. A prime
focus of the mission Œ as already outlined by Traa Œ is to evaluate the current
political situation. The Fund is clearly becoming increasingly concerned about
the continued delays in meeting structural performance criteria under the
current standby programme (see our IMF Tracker dated 27 th August for
At the same time, the IMF can hardly accuse Gutierrez of a lack of a political
effort. Indeed, it is precisely because Gutierrez has tried to adhere closely to
the Fund line that it is has upset its original support base (Pachakutic) - and is
now scrambling to patch together a fresh informal coalition. For this reason,
we consider it unlikely that the Fund will cut Ecuador completely adrift. The
structure of Ecuador™s debt is also such that it is official creditors who have
the most at stake over the next few years.
Nonetheless, a difficult period undoubtedly lies ahead. Unless Gutierrez
makes a rapid breakthrough in gaining new political support, it appears likely
that the next IMF tranche (of US$41m) in September will be delayed for at
least a month Œ and quite possibly longer. But in the end we believe the IMF
will continue to show flexibility. The alternative, of allowing of a major allowing
political crisis to develop with a potential ousting of Gutierrez, is something
that both the multilaterals and the US State department will be very keen to
Hatte zwar die Seite der Zentralbank auch gefunden aber mangels Spanischkenntnissen nicht mehr.
Immerhin wurde die Verschuldung um 200 Millionen in den letzten 6 Monaten abgebaut.
Das ist bei einem Oelpreis von 30$ zwar nicht berauschend aber besser als gar nichts.
Sollte der Oelpreis fuer mehr als 2 Monate unter 25$ fallen, sollte das ein Verkaufsignal fuer Ecuador Anleihen sein.
Fondsmanager Michael Roche von der Fondsgesellschaft HSBC Asset Management ist zuversichtlich für die künftige Entwicklung von Schwellenländern. Roche setzt mit seinem HSBC Global Emerging Markets Bond (WKN 930 419) vor allem auf spekulative Anleihen aus Brasilien und Ekuador. „Die beiden High-Beta-Länder besitzen großes Potenzial und dürften von der positiven Entwicklung der Märkte am meisten profitieren“, so der Fondsmanager in einer Telefonkonferenz.
Der positive Ausblick von Michael Roche für die Schwellenländer liegt vor allem an ihrer gestiegenen Kreditwürdigkeit: „Ihre Bonität war noch nie so gut bewertet wie heute“, so der Fondsmanager. Die Rating-Agentur Standard & Poor’s (S&P) gab Ende Juli mehr als einem Drittel (35,13 Prozent) der Schwellenländer ein Rating im Bereich Investment Grade. Im Juli 1998 lag die Zahl nur bei 9 Prozent. „Für die gute Bewertung waren vor allem wirtschaftpolitische Reformen, gestiegene Direktinvestitionen und bessere Rahmenbedingungen für den Kapitalmarkt in den Schwellenländern ausschlaggebend“, so Roche weiter.
Wednesday September 24, 10:26 pm ET
By Mike Esterl, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A major new oil pipeline is up and running in Ecuador - albeit with less traffic than originally forecast as crude output stalls in the politically volatile country.
The 500-kilometer pipeline has been transporting 160,000 to 170,000 barrels a day since starting operations on Sept. 5, Bernardo Tobar, the president of OCP, the international consortium that built it, said Wednesday.
That level should continue for the next four or five months, before possibly rising to around 250,000 b/d by the end of 2004, Tobar told a small group of reporters.
That`s down from initial estimates by OCP in 2001, when construction on the $ 1.4 billion project began, that the pipeline would transport 300,000 b/d by the end of 2003. It`s also "difficult" to predict when the new pipeline, which complements the state-owned Sote pipeline, will be flowing at its full capacity of 450,000 b/d, Tobar said.
With oil sector investments on hold, Ecuador`s government last week lowered its output target by 4.6% to 144.8 million barrels - or 396,712 b/d - for 2003, slightly below 2002 output levels as it flirts with 10-year lows.
President Lucio Gutierrez and Energy Minister Carlos Arboleda met with officials from foreign oil companies in Manhattan on Wednesday, trying to ensure that output doesn`t shrink more.
"We need your investment because, simply, we do not have the money," Arboleda told an audience of U.S. oil executives during a presentation hosted by the Ecuadorean American Association.
State-owned Petroecuador still produces more than half of the Andean country`s oil output, despite a new constitution in 1998 that rolled back many restrictions on private-sector investment.
Gutierrez said he hopes to unveil new guidelines allowing foreign firms to bid on a new batch of oil fields in the next 60 days, adding that Chinese oil companies voiced "great interest" in investing in Ecuador during a recent government roadshow to the Asian country.
"Ecuador is one of the best places in the world for investment," he told U.S. oil executives, noting the country`s falling inflation while stressing his administration`s commitment to the rule of law and increased transparency.
Local opposition to a greater role by foreign investors in Ecuadorean oil fields remains stiff, though, with Petroecuador`s oil workers staging a lengthy strike earlier this year.
Gutierrez has seen his popular support plummet since stepping into the presidency in mid-January, making it increasingly difficult to push reforms through a fractious Congress.
The International Monetary Fund, concerned by flagging momentum for economic reforms, has put new loan disbursements for Ecuador on hold and the rating agency Standard & Poor`s cut its outlook on the Andean country`s creditworthiness last week after citing a "lack of clarity" on the policy front.
OCP`s Tobar, who estimated that $6 billion to $12 billion in investments are needed to double the country`s crude output, said foreign companies want to see a more stable environment before putting down new money.
"I think down the line in Ecuador, the government needs to turn speech into actual action," he said after Gutierrez addressed investors.
In addition to waiting for rules on bidding for exploration and development contracts, foreign oil companies are locked in a legal dispute over value-added- tax payments dating back to August 2001, when the government suspended tax rebates to the oil sector. The amount under dispute has risen to around $220 million, according to Tobar.
The OCP consortium, which has rights to the new pipeline for 20 years before it hands the keys over to Ecuador`s government, is comprised of seven multinationals, including Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSEXY - News) of the U.S., Spain`s Repsol YPF SA , Canada`s Encana Corp. (NYSE:ECA - News) and Italy`s ENI SpA .
The companies participating in the consortium are responsible for more than 90% of total private sector investments in Ecuador`s oil industry, according to Tobar.
Clouding the new pipeline`s near-term prospects, local media has reported that officials at Petroecuador plan to continue transporting all of their crude along the older Sote pipeline.
Those reports are surfacing despite government assurances that the OCP will transport heavy crude while the Sote increasingly will focus on moving light crude. Until now, the Sote mixed both types of crude when transporting oil.
"Probably the president has to make sure Petroecuador follows his policies," said Tobar, adding that the state-owned company "is not being very cooperative" with OCP.
-By Mike Esterl, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4026; email@example.com
Thursday September 25, 2:43 pm ET
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
Fitch Revises Ecuador`s Outlook to Stable; Affs `CCC+` Rtg
NEW YORK, Sept 25 - Fitch Ratings (News) today revised the Rating Outlook on Ecuador`s sovereign ratings to Stable from Positive, on signs of fiscal slippage that could increase pressures on the government`s already fragile liquidity position. The long-term foreign currency rating was affirmed at `CCC+`, and the short-term foreign currency rating at `C`. Fitch had placed the Ecuador ratings on Positive Outlook in April following the government`s commitment to an aggressive list of reforms and performance criteria under a new IMF program. Since then, however, progress on reforms has been slow and fiscal targets have been missed. Authorities recently announced a reduction in the 2003 and 2004 non-financial public sector surplus targets to 1.5% of GDP for both years from 1.9% and 2.2%, respectively -below the agreed levels with the Fund. The change was attributed to a slowdown in the economy. Unbudgeted mid-year increases in payroll and social security expenditures clearly contributed to the revision. Economic growth, stable since the 1999-2000 financial crisis and default, is now decelerating, in part because of concerns about the political feasibility of further reform to maintain competitiveness in the context of full dollarization. Though there has been some fiscal slippage and little progress on reform, the government has run consistent fiscal surpluses on a cash basis, growth has remained positive, and debt ratios have improved. Also public debt -which Fitch expects to reach about 60% of GDP this year- has declined in relation to GDP primarily because of real exchange rate appreciation and economic growth. In spite of favorable indicators, the rating is currently constrained at `CCC+` by Ecuador`s weak external and fiscal liquidity, political risks, concerns about willingness based on past default, and the more recent generation of arrears to suppliers, employees, and official creditors. Fitch`s external liquidity indicator for the Ecuador is 39%, lower than all other `B` range credits, and considerably lower than the 136% median for `B`s. Tight liquidity caused the sovereign to incur arrears to official creditors last year and early this year. Should upcoming IMF disbursement be pushed back significantly, the likelihood of payment delays to official and bond creditors would increase.
Victory for Gutierrez in Congress Victory for Gutierrez in Congress Victory for Gutierrez in Congress Victory for Gutierrez in Congress
Congress yesterday passed the civil service reform bill.This represents a major triumph for the gov-
ernment.It is one of the key structural reforms demanded by the IMF.
The government managed to garner sufficient support,despite the strong opposition of left-of-center
parties.The bill was approved by 53 of the 100 Congress members.Crucially,the measure received
backing from the right-of-center PSC-the largest party in Congress,with one quarter of the seats.How-
ever,there were continuing demonstrations against the reform outside of Congress yesterday.Miguel
Garcia,president of the public servants workers`union said that he would be asking his members to
strike on Monday.
There was some watering down.The ceiling for severance pay was raised to US$30,000,versus the
US$15,000 limit proposed by the government.Nonetheless,we believe that the IM will adopt a flexible
approach to this watering down – just as it did in the case of the customs reform earlier this year.
The next key structural reform is the tax reform.This looks even more problematic than the labor re-
form,in terms of the political passions that it raises.Nonetheless,we would expect the IM to push back
the deadline for passage of the tax reform into next year (it is currently scheduled for approval by the end
of November,but has not yet been presented to Congress).
This means that,if the government can satisfy the und on other aspects of the program,the delayed
second review could take place in late-October/early November.This would then allow for the next
US$42mn disbursement to be made by December at the latest.
Fitch lowers outlook from positive to stable itch lowers outlook from positive to stable itch lowers outlook from positive to stable itch lowers outlook from positive to stable
Ironically,on a day when the news flow out of Ecuador was positive,itch decided to lower the out-
look on sovereign debt from positive to stable.As the reason,itch cited the recent signs of fiscal slip-
page,which it said could put increased pressure on an already-fragile liquidity position.The move mir-
rors a similar action by S&P on 18th September.
CB indicates that debt buybacks could begin this year
According to Central Bank president Mauricio Yepez,“the mechanisms are in place ” for Ecuador to
commence debt buybacks before the end of this year.
A portion of the revenues from the new OCP pipe-
line will be channeled to the FEIREP oil stabilization fund.In turn,70%of these monies will be available
for retiring the country`s international global bonds or internal debt.Yepez gave no date for when such
buybacks could take place,or indeed how much the fund will receive in 2003.For 2004 the government
estimates that the fund will receive US$292mn.But this latter amount is only likely to be achieved if reve-
nues from all of Petroecuador ’s exports of heavy oil go into FEIREP
.At the moment this is in doubt –al-
though yesterday,Yepez said that as far as he was concerned all the heavy crude should go through the
Separately,Yepez indicated that there will be changes to the IMF program schedule.One option
could be to merge the second and third reviews of the country`s program and complete them jointly by
the end of December or early January.Another option would be to extend the current agreement through
the end of next year.He said that a decision will not be taken until after meetings with the IMF next
month.Minister of Finance Mauricio Pozo is due to visit ashington in the second week of November.An
IMF mission will then arrive in Quito in the second half of the month.
Zur Zeit bspw:
Düsseldorf 69,50G / 70,75B
Berlin 69,00G / 71,00B
Es bietet sich daher an in Düsseldorf zu handeln.
Thursday November 20, 12:14 pm ET
(Adds more details)
WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that economic prospects for Ecuador were favorable, with growth boosted by a new oil pipeline and inflation declining.
IMF spokesman Tom Dawson said senior Ecuadorean finance officials had visited the fund this week, and that talks made progress in defining targets to complete a second assessment of the country`s economy.
A successful review would see the IMF disburse another payment to Ecuador under a $205 million loan program approved in March to sustain investor confidence and keep the budget on track.
"We have agreed on a number of steps in the fiscal and reform areas that authorities will try and put in place by the year end," Dawson told a regular press briefing.
He said reforms entailed the civil service, taxes, establishing private management in the electricity and telephone enterprises and liquidating some closed financial institutions.
"Overall the talks were quite positive and we look forward to further progress being made by the authorities in the weeks ahead to strengthen their program," he said.
He said an IMF team would probably visit the capital Quito in January.
In the next few weeks officials will prepare options for strengthening the 2004 fiscal outlook as well as ensuring adequate financing, he said.
Ecuador sends new labor reforms to Congress
Wednesday December 17, 1:38 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s President Lucio Gutierrez sent Congress a package of reforms to an IMF-required labor law to rectify flaws that made it tough to enforce, a senior lawmaker said on Wednesday.
This Andean nation`s 100-member Congress passed the controversial labor law in September. The law aims to cap a rising public sector wage bill by setting strict rules for public sector workers and simplifying a complex salary structure.
But Gutierrez later decided that the law that was passed left several loopholes that could make it tough to enforce under the nation`s $205 million International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) loan, which is vital for Ecuador to repay its foreign debt.
The president sent the latest reforms late Tuesday to ensure that the law prevents public sector workers from returning to their former jobs after retirement and clear up some murky wording regarding a ceiling for indemnity pay.
Congress has 30 days for debate. Andres Paez, who chairs the legislature`s labor committee, said he would plow ahead on the project even though Congress is in recess until Jan. 6.
"The government has an urgency to fulfill certain reforms that have been imposed by the Fund and this is part of the agreement," said Paez of the opposition`s Democratic Left party. Congress will hold its first debate on Jan. 7.
Congress, where Gutierrez has little outright support, must quickly handle the reforms to move on to an IMF-required tax reform bill. The IMF is expected to review Ecuador`s progress under its loan deal in January.
Tuesday December 30, 3:26 pm ET
By Hugh Bronstein
NEW YORK, Dec 30 (Reuters) - As action in the emerging debt market slowed to a year-end trickle on Tuesday, Wall Street investors evaluated Ecuador`s 2004 financial prospects in light of the country`s slow pace of opening its oil sector to foreign investors.
Analysts want to know if the sovereign bonds of the South American nation can keep rising after surprising many with heart-thumping total returns of 99.5 percent in 2003, compared to the 28.6 percent earned by the rest of the market on J.P. Morgan`s Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (11EMJ).
The answer is yes, according to Jan Dehn, an emerging market analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, as oil companies operating in Ecuador will provide the government with a healthy stream of tax revenue.
Dehn also said he also expects Ecuador to start buying back some of its internationally held sovereign bonds sometime toward the end of the first quarter, which should squeeze debt prices higher.
Jose Cerritelli, a Bear Stearns debt strategist, said he too sees additional upside in Ecuador bonds, calling the country`s high spread, or risk premium, "a huge temptation."
With the country`s spreads at 806 basis points over comparable U.S. Treasuries, well above an emerging market average of 418 basis points, Ecuador rewards its bondholders with relatively high interest payments.
But even as Ecuador benefits from these factors and the benefits of the country having adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency, problems remain in public oil sector.
Ecuador on Monday extended by two months the deadline for companies to bid for 20-year operating licenses for four oilfields it hopes will help fuel economic growth over the next few years.
"This is a setback, though not a hugely surprising one," Dehn said.
"The most direct source of revenue for the government is oil sales and those sales are contracting by 5 to 8 percent a year," he added. "The delay in the bidding is driven by concerns over the legal framework governing the oil sector in Ecuador."
Wall Street wants to see Ecuador pass a bill now pending in Congress that would provide clear rules governing joint ventures and other investments in the country`s oil sector.
"If the hydrocarbon law is passed, you will see greater confidence on the part of private oil companies investing in Ecuador," Dehn said.
Energy Minister Carlos Arboleda said the new, March 23 deadline would give more time for companies to prepare their proposals for the four Amazon fields, with reserves of 905 million barrels.
Email this story - Set a News Alert
Emerging debt-Ecuador outperforms sluggish market
Tuesday January 20, 1:50 pm ET
NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Bolstered by strong oil exports and hope of a new bond issue, Ecuador sovereign debt prices rose on Tuesday while the rest of the market succumbed to a wave of hedge fund selling, traders said.
Total returns dipped 0.28 percent marketwide, according to JP Morgan`s Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus.
"We have seen some speculative accounts selling. I would attribute the down-trade to that," said Paul Masco, head of emerging market trading at Salomon Smith Barney.
Ecuador bucked the trend with a total return rise of 0.45 percent. The country`s spreads have narrowed to 728 basis points from 1801 at the start of last year, marking a sharp decrease in the perception of risk as measured against safe-haven U.S. Treasury bonds.
"Spreads are coming down in Ecuador to the point where it is now realistic to envision this country returning to the international capital markets later this year," said Jose Cerritelli, a debt strategist at Bear Stearns.
"Once they are able to access the market, the government will be able to retire short dated debt, like the bonds due 2012, and issue longer-dated paper. This will improve Ecuador`s debt profile and attract new investors," he said.
Ecuador defaulted on its Brady and Eurobond debt during a severe economic crisis in 1999.
"We hope we can return (to capital markets) in 2004," Ecuador Central Bank president Mauricio Yepez told reporters on Tuesday. He did not specify what conditions the country needed in order to issue new bonds.
President Lucio Gutierrez has maintained Ecuador`s lending program with the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) and plans to draw new oil investments to expand the economy, which is expected to grow 5.7 percent in 2004.
Meanwhile, the high price of oil, Ecuador`s main export, has increased government revenue.
Thursday January 29, 8:17 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo on Thursday said he won`t eliminate a costly fuel subsidy this year and doesn`t need to in order to sustain vital aid from the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) .
"In our original letter (of intent), as you know, this was expected. Now, based on our negotiations, this doesn`t form part of what Ecuador needs to do," Pozo told reporters after returning from talks this week in Washington with the lender.
The Andean nation is relying on a $205 million IMF loan program signed last March to help sustain investor confidence, but has fallen behind schedule in adopting key reforms.
Originally, the country was supposed to eliminate a $200 million a year subsidy for cooking gas that is popular with the poor and Indian groups who have fought for its continuation, even though it mainly benefits the nation`s wealthy.
Ecuador hopes to extend its IMF loan program until the end of the year but won`t seek more money from the lender. Instead it plans to issue new debt later this year. "There`s no more money because the country has financing options," Pozo said.
An IMF mission will travel to Quito next month to review 2003 economic data and the nation`s progress under the loan.
Removing the cooking gas clause from the IMF program could spell some relief for President Lucio Gutierrez from political opposition led by powerful Indian organizations, which have threatened to protest if he axed the popular subsidy.
war doch heute die 694939 bei 101,50 viel interessanter.
Da verzichte ich gerne auf den 1% Renditeunterschied.
Tuesday February 24, 2:19 pm ET
NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Moody`s Investors Service (News - Websites) on Tuesday upgraded Ecuador`s ratings, citing better government fiscal management, giving a fresh boost to a favorite pick of emerging market sovereign bond investors.
The ratings agency said it upgraded Ecuador`s country ceiling for foreign currency bonds and notes to Caa1 from Caa2 and the foreign currency bank deposit ceiling to Caa2 from Caa3.
Ecuador has been one of the strongest performers during an extended emerging market sovereign bond rally. Investors enjoyed total returns of more than 100 percent in 2003.
Ecuador`s global 30(ECUGLB30=RR), the country`s benchmark sovereign bond, rose 1.188 to bid 83.188 on the Moody`s upgrade, but traders did not expect much more of a rise.
"From here I see fairly limited upside because Ecuador has already been the market`s strongest performer over the last year and a half," said a trader.
Moody`s said the ceiling upgrades had lifted the ratings for Ecuadorean government foreign-currency bonds to Caa1 from Caa2 and the ratings for local currency government bonds to B3 from Caa1. It said the outlook for all ratings was stable.
The agency said Ecuador`s ratings were constrained by potential risks derived from dollarization, which it said put a monetary straitjacket on the government, limiting its ability to take action during economic or political shocks.
By Peter Wilson
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador said it will seek to repurchase some of its bonds that mature in 2012, exercising a call option in May or November.
Ecuadorean Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo said last night after a presentation before the Caracas-based Andean Development Corp. that the country would fund the repurchase with resources from its oil fund or from the proceeds of new bond sales. The country has $1.25 billion in the 2012 bonds, and the call option is triggered when the bonds trade at above par.
``We are trying to finish all of the legal requirements by March 31, as we have to give a 45-day notice,`` Pozo said. ``If we finish by then, we will do so (in May.) If not, we will wait for the next date, which is November.``
Ecuador, which defaulted on its bonds in 1999, is trying to take advantage of its improving economy, to spread out debt payments. Moody`s Investors Service raised the country`s debt rating one level in February after the government kept spending in check, helping ease the debt burden.
The government`s bond due 2012 fell 0.50 cent on the dollar to 101.75, pushing its yield up to 11.9 percent at 9 a.m. New York time, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Pozo said the country may seek to sell bonds in the second half of the year. Pozo gave no figures for the amount of bonds that could be repurchased, or sold.
Proceeds from a bond sale ``could be used to cover repurchases, or cover the government`s budget,`` he said.
bisher sind die 12er und die 30er ziemlich genau gleich gelaufen seitdem ich die Anleihen zu verschiedenen Zeitpunkten gekauft habe (die 12er durch die höhere lfd. Verzinsung und die 30er durch die stärkeren Kursgewinne).
Ursprünglich war die 12er die risikoreichere und agressivere Anleihe, die 30er die weniger risikoreichere (auch wegen der Konstruktion im Defaultfall).
Mittlerweile hat sich das Profil verändert, denn auf Grund der Zinsentwicklung und der Callmöglichkeit der 12er ist das Potenzial der 12er nach oben und unten eher beschränkt, während der Hebel bei der 30er deutlich grösser ist.
Zu Anfang des Threads hätte ich übrigens nicht gedacht, dass der Call überhaupt mal ein Thema werden könnte ... (Kurs damals 45).
Die Option muss man vom Anleihenwert der 12er abziehen. Wie hoch der faire Wert einer solchen Option ist, streiten sich die Gelehrten (siehe Stada 2015). Imho wird er generell massiv unterschätzt. Zu Kursen um 45 war er allerdings sicher nicht so wichtig.
Dazu kommt der Hebel der Laufzeit. Bei einer Rendite von um die 9% für Ecuador, wird die 30er die 12er auch ohne Option überholen. Von daher ist sie volatiler und risikoreicher. Egal, sowieso Elfenbeinturm-Gelaber jetzt.
Bei der ECU30er ist das auch ein ernst zu nehmendes Problem, denn wenn der Zins, den Ecuador am Kapitalmarkt zahlen muss unter 10% fällt, dann wird auch die 30er gekündigt werden (im Moment noch keine Gefahr, da durch den Step-up der Kupons ja noch deutlich unter 10% liegt). Bis zur Kündigung gibt es aber eben auch nur die niedrigere laufende Verzinsung - insofern ist die Renditeberechnung auf Endfälligkeit nur eingeschränkt aussagekräftig.
Die ECU30 hat also schon einen grösseren Hebel als die ECU12, aber eben nur relativ.
Eigentlich wär die Refinanzierung einer solchen Anleihe ein gefundens Fressen für einen Hedge-Fonds im Ölbereich. Bin mal gespannt, wieviel der 12er sie refinanziert kriegen - und von wem.
Wednesday April 14, 5:34 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, April 14 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean tax collection rose 19.2 percent in March compared with a year ago, helping the government catch up to its quarterly target for receipts, the Internal Revenue Service said on Wednesday.
The Andean nation`s net collection, which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits, was $257.3 million in March, the Service said in a monthly report.
Receipts for Ecuador`s main tax, a 12 percent value added tax, rose 21.2 percent to $159.8 million in March compared with a year ago, the report said.
In the first quarter of 2004, Ecuador received $741.6 million in taxes, surpassing its $739.6 million target for the period, according to the report.
Ecuador expects to receive $3.218 billion in taxes in 2004.
Ecuador to struggle for new IMF loan, analysts say
Tuesday April 20, 7:15 pm ET
By Amy Taxin
QUITO, Ecuador, April 20 (Reuters) - Ecuador will find it difficult to sign a new International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) loan program as political support for reform fades and pressure on government spending rises, analysts said on Tuesday.
For 13 months, the Andean nation has held a $205 million IMF loan program that effectively ends on Tuesday. The government has vowed to seek a new loan for about $121 million to sustain investor confidence after failing to meet the program`s requirements.
Now analysts say a question mark hovers over Ecuador`s ability to win a new deal. President Lucio Gutierrez has less support for Congressional reforms than when he took office in January 2003 and faces growing pressure from Ecuadoreans to spend government cash on better wages and development aid.
"It`s nearly impossible to reach a new agreement with the IMF," said Alfredo Arizaga of economic and business consultancy Quantum in Quito and a former finance minister. "The political space doesn`t exist."
Ecuador is striving to regain investors` confidence after defaulting on Brady and Eurobond debt in 1999. The country restructured that debt a year later by issuing new bonds.
Analysts said Ecuador is lucky to sustain broad political support from Washington D.C. for a program, which makes the IMF more flexible than it might be with a nation that has repeatedly failed to fulfill requirements.
"It (the new loan) matters tremendously because the IMF program serves as a policy guide for the government. In the absence of that kind of policy agenda for the government, it is hard for them to gain support in Congress," said Whitney Kane Gomez, an emerging markets analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Under the program about to end, Ecuador was supposed to hire private companies to run state electric and telephone companies and pass a broad tax reform. It did none of that.
One area, however, where Ecuador has shown progress is fiscal control. Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo, favored by financial markets, clamped down on spending last year to slash a hefty stack of arrears that was inherited by Gutierrez.
But there is renewed pressure on government spending as political parties become increasingly critical of Gutierrez and appear less likely to back his reforms in Congress and state workers demand raises in public sector wages.
"I think it`s going to be more and more difficult and that`s why you`re beginning to see more pressure on the spending side," said Jose Barrionuevo, director of emerging markets strategy at Barclays Capital.
This week, Labor Minister Raul Izurieta said the government plans to raise state salaries in July and is studying reforms to reduce the amount of cash allotted to buyback debt in order to raise development spending.
Pozo said he would travel to Washington next week to meet with IMF officials. "We are seeking a new agreement," he told reporters on Tuesday.
Rising public spending poses a threat to Ecuador`s mid-term economic stability as well as the prospects for a new IMF loan, analysts said. The loan is considered crucial to sustain confidence and an estimated $300 million in multilateral credits.
Ecuador says clears trade disputes with U.S. firms
Friday April 23, 11:49 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, April 23 (Reuters) - Ecuador said on Friday it had cleared outstanding disputes with U.S. companies to sustain a series of trade preferences and start talks next month for a free trade agreement with the United States.
"The Ecuadorean government has reached agreements pending on problems and disputes related to eligibility criteria for the Andean trade benefits," the trade ministry said in a statement late on Friday.
Ecuador needs approval from the U.S. Trade Representative on the agreements in order to sustain a series of trade preferences that were awarded to the Andean nation and three others to reward their fight against the illegal drugs trade.
Ecuador also hopes the accords clear the path to start negotiating a free trade agreement with Washington on May 18 along with its neighbors Colombia and Peru.
The disputes with Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK - News), BellSouth Corp. (NYSE:BLS - News) and IBM Corp. (NYSE:IBM - News) were over debts totaling more than $10 million. The ministry said a payment plan had been worked out to resolve the problem.
Bei den Vennies versickert zwar auch immer einiges von den Windfall-Profits, aber der hohe Ölpreis macht sich sehr wohl positiv bemerkbar. Bei den Guanos stinkt hingegen irgendwas ganz gewaltig (sagt einer, der seine Gewinne bereits bei 56 realisiert hat )
das stoert mich auch gewaltig bei den Ecuadories.
Irgendwie sind da immer andere Umstaende Schuld, dass alles nicht so klappt wie geplant.
Mal ist es eine kaputte Pipeline, dann sind es wieder die Indianer nur bei der Regierung selber ist alles im Lot.
klar die Ecuadorianer sind nicht gerade die Musterschüler was die geordnete Haushaltsführung angeht - es geht also tatsächlich noch schlechter als bei Hans Eichel ;-)))
Die fehlende Mehrheit im Parlament und der Druck der Masse machen das geordnete regieren auch nicht gerade leichter. Auf der anderen Seite sollte man erwarten, dass bei den Ölpreisen eigentlich nichts schief gehen kann.
Wie dem auch sei, ich habe einen Großteil meine 12er in die 30er gewechselt (Schnitt 88 zu 65 ab). Die haben jetzt eine relativ bessere Absicherung nach unten und höheres Potenzial nach oben.
Wednesday May 12, 4:45 pm ET
By Walter Brandimarte
SAO PAULO, Brazil, May 12 (Reuters) - Emerging nations` debt traded flat on Wednesday after a one-day rally as investors waited on U.S. inflation data for clues on the timing of an expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
But oil-producer Ecuador`s bonds, recently battered by U.S. rate hike fears, posted strong gains for the second consecutive session as oil prices neared a record high.
The U.S. producer price index will be announced on Thursday, followed by the consumer price Index on Friday.
Analysts say the data will provide an important clue on how large the next interest rate hike will be in the world`s biggest economy, a move likely to take the shine off riskier emerging market debt by boosting the yields of U.S. assets.
The emerging debt market price drop has led some to consider some bonds good value although investors are wary about buying again for fear a crashing market would blow out emerging spreads, making borrowing more expensive.
"We`re talking to many investors in emerging markets; everyone has increased cash positions and a lot of people agree that bonds are cheap right now," said Luis Oganes, a sovereign strategist at JP Morgan.
"But no one is willing to pull the trigger just yet. Everyone is willing to see the volatility in global markets come down a little more and (is wondering) what the next Fed move is going to be."
Brazil`s bonds led the downturn after rising more than 2 percent in terms of total returns on Tuesday, according to JP Morgan`s Emerging Market Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) (11EMJ).
The nation`s highly traded Global 40 bonds (BRAGLB40=RR) fell 1.063 to bid 85.375 at a yield of 12.902 percent while the C Bonds (BRAZILC=RR) were 0.501 weaker to bid 87.813 at a yield of 11.415 percent.
Total returns for the whole market were 0.14 percent lower according to the EMBI+.
GAMBLING ON ECUADOR
Oil prices approaching $41 a barrel extended a technical rebound in Ecuador bonds that started on Tuesday, when total returns for the nation rose 4.5 percent, although they remained 12.8 percent lower year-to-date.
Ecuador`s Global 12 bonds (ECUGLB12=RR), seen as a benchmark for the country, rose 3.000 on Wednesday to bid 86.500 at a yield of 15.277 percent, before sliding back to be up 1.500 at a bid of 85.000, yielding 15.686.
"Oil prices are really favorable to Ecuador as it is a big oil exporter", said Gustavo Rangel, an emerging market strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. "This year the country is expected to grow more than five percent, and a bulk of that is due to oil exports."
Rangel said Ecuador was in a comfortable financing position, as unlike market heavyweight Brazil, it does not need to issue new debt in the international market this year.
But analysts said the country is still extremely vulnerable to turbulence as uncertainty lingers over the renewal of an International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) agreement.
Neither will rumors of Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo`s resignation die down. Pozo is seen as a key supporter of the fiscal discipline the IMF demands.
beim aktuellen Oelpreis sollte da nicht viel schiefgehen.
Die Frage ist nur, wie lange bleibt der so hoch.
Bei den Preisen duerfte doch wieder alle Oelfirmen Man und Maus fuer NeuBohrungen mobilisieren und das duerfte über kurz oder lang fuer zusaetzliches Angebot sorgen.
Persoenlich halte ich ja das kleine Zubrot (Gratisanleihen) was es bei der ECU 30 im Defaultfall gibt fuer einen Witz.
nachdem ich heute die aktuellen Zahlen gesehen habe, bin ich bei 73,50 raus.
Das war alles ein bischen wenig.
Die Devisenreserven sind fast wieder auf dem Niveau von vor einem Jahr.
Ich weiss ehrlich gesagt nicht, was die Jungs mit den Oelerloesen machen.
Analytical Accounts of the Central Bank
Net Foreign Assets In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 1569.80 1654.30
International Reserves In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 1145.40 1229.10
Other Net Foreign Assets In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 424.40 425.20
Net domestic credit to central government In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 832.70 789.20
Net domestic credit to social security funds In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 -690.90 -681.40
Credit to the private sector In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 17.10 16.90
Credit to the financial system In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 175.60 175.20
Currency in Circulation In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 53.70 53.30
Bank Reserves In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 259.90 281.40
die Bedeutung der Devisenreserven in einer dollarisierten Wirtschaft sollte man nicht überbewerten. 1Mrd.$ halte ich für eine so kleine Volkswirtschaft für ok. Gewisse Schwankungen muss man da auch in Kauf nehmen, der Trend zeigt aber m.E. keine problematische Entwicklung an.
Ecuador dollar reserves up 14.1 pct in week
Tuesday May 25, 4:20 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, May 25 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s reserves of
U.S. dollars rose 14.1 percent to $1.307 billion in the week
ending on May 21, the Central Bank said on Tuesday.
The following table shows reserve levels for Ecuador, which
adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in 2000.
DATE ............ RESERVES
May 21 ............ $1.307 bln
May 14 ............ $1.145 bln
May 7 ............ $1.229 bln
April 30 ............ $1.236 bln
April 23 ............ $1.243 bln
April 16 ............ $1.167 bln
April 8 ............ $1.218 bln
April 2 ............ $1.253 bln
March 26 ............ $1.284 bln
March 19 ............ $1.220 bln
March 12 ............ $1.149 bln
March 5 ............ $1.166 bln
Feb. 27 ............ $1.207 bln
Feb. 20 ............ $1.145 bln
Feb. 13 ............ $1.142 bln
Feb. 6 ............ $1.226 bln
Jan. 31 ............ $1.240 bln
Dec. 31, 2003 ............ $1.160 bln
Dec. 31, 2002 ............ $1.008 bln
Der aktuelle Kurs von 74 ist doch im Vergleich zur Bra 34 und zur Ven 27 ziemlich ambitioniert.
Ich habe das Gefühl das alle schon den 10% Kupon im Blick haben.
Den gibt es leider aber erst 2006.
Kurz ich denke schon, das wir noch mal die 70 sehen.
QUITO, Ecuador, June 1 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Congress does not have enough votes to depose President Lucio Gutierrez, two senior lawmakers said on Tuesday, despite politicians` talk of wanting to get rid of the unstable country`s elected leader.
Leftist lawmakers have demanded Gutierrez, a 47-year-old retired army colonel, resign over accusations of campaign malpractice and economic policies they say hurt the poor.
In recent weeks, members of Congress have openly discussed the ways to legally depose the president in what is considered one of Latin America`s most politically volatile nations.
But lawmakers admitted on Tuesday that they lack the votes to impeach the president due to the fragmented nature of the 100-member Congress, where the biggest party has less than a quarter of the votes. Gutierrez says he won`t resign.
Guillermo Landazuri, president of Congress and a lawmaker from the opposition`s Democratic Left party, said that while there are constitutional options to remove Gutierrez, "being able to put them in practice is something else."
Congress can impeach the president with two-thirds of votes for either corruption or breach of national security.
Another lawmaker said that Gutierrez does not appear to have committed either of the infractions.
"In a fractured and heterogenous Congress, first, we don`t have the numbers," said Ramiro Rivera of the centrist Popular Democracy party, who is the Legislature`s vice president. "And in my opinion, at this time, there is no clear infraction that the president has committed or may commit."
While the president faces public criticism even from his wife and vice president, Gutierrez insists he will fulfill his promises to tackle poverty and fight corruption and has called on opposition lawmakers to help him to do so.
Since 1997, Ecuador has ousted two of its presidents before their terms were due to end. Gutierrez, who helped topple one of them in a 2000 revolt, should govern until January 2007.
Ecuador`s finance minister resigns
Tue 1 June, 2004 19:22
QUITO, Ecuador, June 1 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo resigned on Tuesday and turned over his job to the nation`s top central banker as part of a government plan to maintain fiscal discipline and economic stability.
"We are going to remain firm in our economic program; we are going to remain firm and disciplined in our fiscal management," President Lucio Gutierrez told reporters after announcing Pozo`s resignation and his replacement by Central Bank President Mauricio Yepez.
Pozo, a 45-year-old economist, is a favorite of Wall Street for putting the economy on track after Gutierrez inherited a stack of unpaid bills when he took office in January 2003. But he has also faced criticism from leftist politicians for IMF-backed economic policies they say hurt the poor.
Yepez has been president of the central bank since September 2001 and has negotiated for loan programs from the International Monetary Fund along with Pozo.
Der Pozo Rücktritt ist zunächst negativ zu werten. Allerdings wird der Nachfolger, der bisherige Zentralbankchef Mauricio Yepez für eine gewisse Konstanz sorgen (er hat u.a. auch die IWF Vereinbarungen mit ausgehandelt). Da sich einige Teile der Opposition (auch ausserparlamentarisch) ziemlich auf Pozo eingeschossen haben ist eine andere Person vielleicht eher in der Lage die notwendigen Punkte/Reformen vorwärts zu bringen.
Tuesday June 8, 11:16 am ET
NEW YORK, June 8 (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan said on Tuesday it upgraded Ecuador`s sovereign debt to marketweight from underweight and lowered Venezuela`s external bonds to marketweight from overweight.
The bank said in a research note that Ecuador`s political situation had calmed down and that President Lucio Gutierrez looked less vulnerable despite seeing his popularity plunge amid calls to resign from opposition lawmakers.
It also said private oil firms in Ecuador seemed "more constructive" about the passage of a hydrocarbons law, the final debate of which starts on Tuesday in Congress.
The government hopes the hydrocarbons reform will clarify the framework for oil investments in order to draw more private investment into the sector.
Ecuador is negotiating a new International Monetary Fund standby loan to help the country tap a series of multilateral credits and work its way back into international debt markets after its 1999 default.
"Prospects for an IMF deal and debt buybacks are still murky, but the financing plans appear manageable," J.P. Morgan said.
The bank said it was lowering exposure to Venezuela to take profits on a rise this month in the country`s bond prices.
The country`s sovereign bond prices ticked higher on Monday after the government announced that it will offer to buy back some six-month dollar notes issued earlier this year.
J.P. Morgan said high oil prices were isolating Venezuela from contagion from market volatility in the near term.
But the investment bank also said it was concerned about "potential schemes" by President Hugo Chavez to dip into the country`s foreign reserves in a bid to win a referendum on his rule through extra spending.
Wall Street is split over how much Venezuelan debt to hold as Chavez prepares for a recall vote that could end the populist leader`s rule that has angered the country`s economic elite.
While investors dislike Chavez`s criticism of the United States and friendship with Cuban President Fidel Castro, they are largely confident of the crude exporter`s ability to continue paying its debts as long as oil prices stay high.
Meanwhile, Citigroup on Tuesday reiterated its overweight recommendation on the country`s external bonds, saying it was likely a recall vote would be held in August.
"This raises the prospect of political transition that could lead to normalization of the Venezuelan economy, which could, in turn, reduce further the risk of a disruption to the servicing of Venezuela`s external debt," it said in a research note.
Monday June 14, 11:02 am ET
QUITO, Ecuador, June 14 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean tax collection rose 9.4 percent to $245.2 million in May versus the same month of 2003, the country`s Internal Revenue Service reported on Monday.
In May of 2003, net tax collection -- which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits -- was $224.2 million, according to the service`s monthly report.
In the first five months of 2004, tax receipts have surpassed the government`s collection targets by 1.7 percent. Ecuador, which aspires to collect $3.218 billion this year in taxes, has so far received $1.411 billion.
The country`s main Value Added Tax drew in $154.5 million in May 2004 compared with $144.5 million a year earlier. Value Added Tax in Ecuador is 12 percent.
... with the exception of Ecuador, where investors were turned off by Wednesday`s congressional rejection of an oil reform bill that sought increase private investment.
The bill is seen as key to Ecuador`s clinching a new IMF agreement.
"This vote was very negative and very unexpected," said Jan Dehn, an emerging market analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston.
Ecuador total returns dipped 0.5 percent while the rest of the market rose 0.57.
Leftist parties, many of which oppose President Lucio Gutierrez, united to reject the bill, which would have created a contract for private firms to produce crude in Amazon fields currently operated by state oil company Petroecuador.
The defeat of the bill, which was proposed by a former Congressman, could signal a tough road ahead for Gutierrez`s plans to revamp the oil and electricity sectors to raise government revenues and bolster the economy.
Dehn had earlier predicted that Ecuador would clinch a standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund by late August.
"But that could now be delayed as far as October," he said.
Friday June 18, 6:53 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, June 18 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s economy is poised to grow between 3 percent and 4 percent in 2005 as an oil sector boom driving nearly double that growth this year starts to cool down, the Central Bank said on Friday.
Ecuador expects the economy will grow about 5.9 percent this year.
The main reason for the slowdown is that the economy`s oil sector is expected to grow 4.5 percent next year compared with a whopping 27 percent forecast for 2004 as private oil companies raise their production to help fill a new pipeline.
"Private companies will continue to raise (their crude output), but it won`t be as significant of an increase," Fabian Carrillo, the Central Bank`s deputy director of economic studies, told Reuters at a conference on fiscal policy.
Next year would mark Ecuador`s sixth straight year of economic growth since the country adopted the U.S. dollar as its currency in 2000 to battle a severe economic crisis.
Growth has also been buoyed by the construction of the new pipeline, which has more than doubled the oil-dependent nation`s crude transport capacity.
Private oil firms are expected to raise their crude output by 59 percent to 123.9 million barrels this year (338,525 bpd), and another 7.5 percent next year.
Ecuador is expected to produce 201.7 million barrels of oil next year (552,603 bpd), up 4.8 percent from 2004, with about a third coming from state oil company Petroecuador, according to a bank report released at the conference.
Total oil exports, including those from private companies, would reach 136.9 million barrels (375,068 bpd).
Consumer price inflation next year would range between 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent, falling from the 3 percent to 4 percent expected for 2004. Ecuador has been struggling to slow the rise in consumer prices since it adopted the dollar.
On the fiscal side, Ecuador would aim to post a primary surplus in its nonfinancial public sector -- which includes the central government and many state agencies -- of between 4.7 percent and 5.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2005.
That would surpass this year`s target of reporting a primary surplus -- which excludes interest payments on debt -- of between 4 percent and 5 percent for the year.
Taxes, the government`s main source of revenue, would generate $3.474 billion in 2005, up 8 percent from 2004, said Oswaldo Aguirre, Internal Revenue Service planning director, citing economic growth forecasts and improved controls.
June 22, 2004
Hydrocarbons Reform Update
The government is expected to send a new hydrocarbons reform to Congress this week. The most likely
scenario is that the government would send a simple one-paragraph reform that would impose a 35%
participation requirement on new oil contracts. It seems that enough Congressional support is warranted if
such a simple reform is presented. The key for private sector investment is that the participation rate
includes the royalty. In the previous reform, the 35% participation rate excluded the royalty. Adding the
royalty to the 35% participation rate would increase the financial cost to prohibitive levels. We think that
chances of approval of the hydrocarbons law have increased, and this would be a market positive.
Plan B to Cover This Year`s Financing Needs
Vice Minister of Finance Ramiro Galarza said the government is working on a Plan B to cover this year`s
financing needs in case there is no agreement with the IMF. Negotiations with the IMF have been delayed
and signing a program before the Fund`s August recess seems unlikely. Approval of a program is necessary
to get disbursements from multilaterals of around US$350 million this year. The government recently
approached the IADB and asked for disbursements of US$200 million. We think Ecuador asked the IADB
to wave conditionality. The IADB`s next loan of US$100 million for Ecuador is scheduled for April 2005.
The only option for Quito would be to approach the emergency window of the IADB. We have been
stating for months that cash flow pressures would be on the rise during the second half of 2004 if an
agreement with the Fund were not reached. An option would be to use funds from the oil stabilization
FIREP to buy back domestic debt from public institutions that would use those resources to finance the
central government. In addition, the government needs to convince the Social Security System to buy at
least US$400 million in domestic debt.
Ist schon ein ewiges hin- und her gezerre bei den Guanos, aber nicht umsonst gibt es diese Renditen.
Das eigentliche Problem der Guanos ist für mich aktuell die Einigung mit dem IMF. Deshalb verharrt trotz Ölpreis der Kurs. Zwar fördern sie weniger als geplant, was jedoch nicht dramatisch ist. So hat man eben mehr Reserven für später. :-)
Sobald eine Einigung erzielt ist, werden die Gläubiger beruhigt sein und die Kurse, insbesondere der 30er, wieder nach oben treiben. Bei der 12er ist mir der Kurs völlig wurscht, solange die Zinsen fliessen.
Zumindest hat die Einwechselung des Ersatzspielers keine negativen Folgen gehabt.
Wednesday June 23, 10:46 am ET
QUITO, Ecuador, June 23 (Reuters) - Ecuador on Wednesday approved a pension increase for thousands of elderly demonstrators demanding more cash, a move that economists say could spell trouble for the government`s budget.
The board of Ecuador`s Social Security Institute resolved to raise pensions for the Andean nation`s 241,000 pensioners after a marathon meeting as scores of gray-haired senior citizens protested to show their need for a raise.
In a television interview on Wednesday, Social Security board member Ricardo Ramirez said that pensions this year would consume $527 million versus $424 million in 2003.
The smallest pensions will rise up to 250 percent and the biggest by 2 percent to improve equity. But pensioners weren`t satisfied by the raise and continued to protest for more cash.
"We don`t deserve this fortune. After contributing to the state for 30, 40, 50 years we should not be receiving pensions of misery," Gabriel Riera, representative of the pensioners, said in a radio interview.
Many pensioners say they receive less than $100 a month and depend on their children to support them through old age.
The move could put pressure on President Lucio Gutierrez`s efforts to strengthen fiscal accounts. Under Ecuadorean law, the government is responsible for 40 percent of pensions.
The government is already strapped for financing this year and has fallen behind on paying state workers` salaries. Ramirez said the increase would simply raise the amount of a running debt the government has with Social Security.
Finance Minister Mauricio Yepez has insisted that pensions can`t be raised until a study has been complete to determine how much cash Social Security has on hand.
"I understand that affiliates need more loans but the way this has been proposed, it`s like writing a check when the funds aren`t there," Yepez said earlier this week. He said he might present a legal challenge to a pension increase.
The government appears committed to approve a new Hydrocarbon Law that will be successful in attracting private investment. In this light, we expect the project to be submitted tomorrow to Congress as an urgent economic bill. As we stated previously, the government is anticipating it will get the necessary support for the bill despite last week`s negative surprise vote.
The government appears committed to approve a new Hydrocarbon Law that will be successful in attracting private investment. In this light, we expect the project to be submitted tomorrow to Congress as an urgent economic bill. As we stated previously, the government is anticipating it will get the necessary support for the bill despite last week`s negative surprise vote.
The World Bank yesterday approved a US$20mn credit, to be used for the reform of the public sector. According to the World Bank representative in Ecuador, McDonald Benjamin, the loan will support efforts to make the country’s customs administration, public procurement, civil service, and selected public agencies more efficient, effective, transparent, and accountable.
The fact that the World Bank has sanctioned the loan is also good news when viewed from a wider perspective. It indicates that disbursements from multilaterals, such as the WB and the IADB, will not be affected by the failure
to reach a new agreement with the IMF, at least in the short term. Indeed, we believe that as long as the government shows its willingness to strive for a new IMF agreement, this flexibility on the part of the multilaterals is likely to continue.
This flexibility is very important in terms of ensuring that the residual financing gap for this year is kept to a minimum. Earlier this week, Deputy Economy Minister Ramiro Galarza indicated that the financing gap at present amounts to around US$300 million. Although this is down from US$527 million at the start of the year, a suspension of multilateral lending would cause significant difficulties.
The Finance Ministry today announced the issuance of USD400mn in local paper (3 to 10 yr maturity). The issuance comes as part of the USD1.032bn in expected local debt to be issued over the coming months in order to finance the 2004 budget and arrears. The main issue to watch for here will be whether or not the Social Secutity IESS will be a large buyer of local paper, an important precondition for liquidity this year.
Congress yesterday voted for a rise in pensions. If sanctioned by the government, the increase will likely place yet more pressure on already-stretched public sector finances. The bill approved yesterday would raise pensions to the same level as the minimum wage (currently just under US$136 a month).
However, according to Economy Minister Mauricio Yepez, a pensions hike is something that the government can ill afford. He estimated the increased cost this year at US$150mn (40% of which would have to be met by the central
government). On top of this, there could be additional costs from the pension increase approved last week by IESS directors. Also, there are moves afoot to return some of the IESS savings to depositors. According to Yepez, “there is no economy that could support this."
The strong negative reaction from Yepez will place pressure on President Gutierrez to veto the pensions bill. However, this would be certain to incur the wrath of pensioners, as well as populist elements in Congress and the nation as a whole. This will therefore be the first big test of whether Gutierrez is willing to back his new Economy Minister at the cost of incurring a populist backlash.
The country`s surplus in the first three months of this year totaled $181 million, according to a quarterly report published on the bank`s Web site (http://www.bce.fin.ec).
Ecuador saw revenues rise 13.8 percent to $1.827 billion in the first quarter of the year, bolstered mainly by an increase in tax collection. Revenues were equivalent to 6.3 percent of GDP in the first quarter compared with 6.0 percent a year ago.
But spending rose 20.5 percent to $1.646 billion compared with the first quarter of 2004, according to the report.
Total spending in the first quarter of 2004 rose to 5.7 percent of GDP from 5.1 percent in the first quarter of 2003.
The Andean nation aims to post a surplus of between 1 percent and 2 percent of GDP in 2004 and a primary surplus -- which excludes interest payments -- of 4-5 percent.
The government reported a primary budget surplus of 4.7 percent of GDP and a fiscal surplus of 1.7 percent last year.
Ecuador is struggling to keep a lid on spending but faces growing political pressure to raise wages and pensions.
Wednesday July 7, 11:20 am ET
(Adds details, context)
QUITO, Ecuador, July 7 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s economy grew 5.9 percent in the first quarter of 2004 from a year ago, bolstered by soaring private-sector oil output, the central bank said on Wednesday.
The bank said the economy grew 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2003, according to a report on its Web site (www.bce.fin.ec).
The oil sector falls under the mining and quarrying sector, which surged 30.9 percent in the first quarter from the year-ago level as private companies raised their crude output after a new privately built pipeline was completed last year.
Ecuador expects its oil sector to surge 27 percent this year as companies aim to fill the new pipeline, which can shuttle 450,000 barrels per day of heavy grades of crude from Amazon oil fields to the Pacific coast for export.
Private companies` crude output is expected to soar 59 percent this year to 123.9 million barrels, or 338,525 bpd, from 2003 levels, according to the central bank.
Oil is driving the nation`s economy. The central bank expects Ecuador`s non-oil sector to grow just 2.4 percent this year, up a tenth of a percentage point from 2003`s growth rate.
In the first five months of 2004, the Andean nation produced about 516,000 bpd of oil, its biggest export, according to the Energy Ministry.
Ecuador`s economy is expected to grow 5.9 percent this year.
This raises questions about 2005
Our main conclusions from today’s conference call with Deputy Finance Minister Ramiro Galarza are noted below.
This year the government is financing its deficit using oil boom revenues in the FEIREP oil stabilization fund. The resources should suffice to meet financing needs for 2004, in our view. The mechanism is the following: The government buys back bonds from public sector institutions using FEIREP money and then places new bonds with those institutions, thereby transferring the oil revenue to the Central Government below the line. We think this mechanism will give the government adequate financing this year.
The decision to use FEIREP funds to finance the deficit reflects the government’s inability to pass key structural reforms rather than a well-planned strategy, in our view. The failure to secure an IMF agreement this year, which is now our base case, has placed out of reach some $240mn in potential multilateral financing expected at the start of the year. The failure to secure control over the financing available in the social security fund (IESS) is
the reason why FEIREP financed buybacks are required to place bonds with the IESS, in our view.
The financing situation in 2005 is now more cloudy, in our view. Next year will be tougher for several reasons. First, oil prices are likely to be lower, reducing the amount of financing available in the FEIREP fund relative to this year. Second, we do not think prospects for an IMF agreement will be any better in 2005 than this year. Fiscal risks are likely to be greater rather than smaller as President Gutierrez enters the last two years of his term, and the US presidential election will be a thing of the past, potentially triggering a tougher US stance.
Finally, we note that this year’s deferred pension increase is likely to be approved by Congress around this time next year, with no veto option available to the president.
Still, we believe the government wishes to observe the spending ceiling imposed by the Fiscal Responsibility Law. The decision to veto the pension increase was brave and reflects the president’s commitment to fiscal prudence, in our view. Mr Galarza today reiterated that there will be no salary increase this year. The main risk is that the decision to stand up to Congressional and popular pressures could yet prove costly politically, although this remains to be seen. On the other hand, if such ramifications do not materialize, which is not our base case, we would see this as an important victory for fiscal discipline in Ecuador.
The VAT increase bill is unlikely to be passed; this is not a concern, in our view. The purpose of the bill is to illustrate the irresponsibility of Congress in approving unfunded pension increases. In the short term, it has done just that.
The Solicitor General has asked the Economic Committee of Congress to make
explicit the split between royalties and participation rates in oil contracts under
the Hydrocarbon Law. This could marginally reduce chances of passage of the bill,
in our view, though successful passage is still our base case scenario. Splitting the
state’s contribution makes it tougher to maintain the illusion of a 35% state share,
which matters for political reasons. The second and final debate is scheduled for next
week. Passage must occur by 23 July. The main risk is the position of the populist
PRE party; its opposition sank a similar bill some weeks ago.
Pensioners’ protests are continuing. President Gutierrez yesterday agreed to set
up a committee with representatives from the social security fund, Congress, and the
economic team to try to find a solution to the pension issue. Pensioners are
demanding pension hikes, but no money is earmarked for pension hikes in the
Friday July 9, 7:39 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, July 9 (Reuters) - Board members from Ecuador`s Social Security institute on Friday appealed a resolution removing them from office during an uprising by senior citizens demanding an increase in their pensions.
The Andean nation`s banking superintendency last week fired its three-member board for "blocking supervision and control" after the board raised pensions by 24 percent. The government had warned there was no money for such a raise.
The government`s representative to the board agreed to give up his post. But two other members, who represent workers and employers, appealed the ruling to the country`s banking junta, responsible for decisions in banking and insurance.
"The superintendent does not have the right to do this, he is violating the law," said Bruno Frixone, who has served as the employers` representative to the board.
The shake-up at Social Security comes amid an ongoing protest by senior citizens to demand a pension increase.
Congress approved a raise for pensioners to minimum wage, but President Lucio Gutierrez rejected the proposal, arguing the government lacked the $200 million needed to do so.
Instead, Gutierrez has proposed raising the country`s Value Added Tax (VAT) one percentage point to 13 percent to finance a pension increase, but lawmakers are reluctant to pass responsibility for pensions to the nation`s 12 million people.
Government officials, lawmakers and elderly demonstrators are meeting in Quito with the hope of finding a solution to the crisis, which has raised concerns about a lack of government financing this year and the Social Security system.
The government aims to raise $1 billion this year through domestic debt issues to stay on top of paying state workers` salaries and service providers in this year`s budget.
QUITO, Ecuador, July 13 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean tax receipts rose 4.6 percent to $239.7 million in June from a year ago, helping the country surpass targets for the first half of 2004, the Internal Revenue Service said on Tuesday.
Net tax collection, which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits, totaled $229.2 million in June 2003, the Internal Revenue Service said in a monthly report on its Web site (www.sri.gov.ec).
In the first six months of the year, tax collection rose 11.6 percent to $1.651 billion, compared with a year ago. Collection in the first half of 2004 surpassed the government`s targets for this period by about $14 million, the report said.
Collection of the country`s main Value Added Tax (VAT) was $156.4 million in June compared with about $152 million a year ago, the report said. Value Added Tax is 12 percent.
Ecuador aims to collect $3.218 billion in taxes this year. Taxes are the government`s main source of revenue.
Das gibt mir zu denken! Sollte wohl man ein wenig davon zukaufen....
ich bin schon ganz ordentlich in ECU12 bzw. ECU30 investiert, bisher war das auch nicht so schlecht. Meine Postings hier dienen aber eher einer "Informationssammlung". Auf Bondboard ist das nicht so schön möglich.
Ecuador pension protests near end with new law
Tuesday July 27, 4:15 pm ET
QUITO, Ecuador, July 27 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean retirees called off a hunger strike on Tuesday and agreed to lift a month-long protest for higher pensions after Congress passed a law giving them more cash.
"We have ordered that the national hunger strike be lifted," said protest leader Gerardo Ramos, a day after Congress passed a bill for a $68 million pension increase.
As soon as the bill is published as law, retirees will end their month-long occupation of Social Security offices, where they have camped out with bed cushions, Ramos said.
He expected the bill would be published on Wednesday.
The announcement is a sign that the pension battle is nearing its end in the Andean nation, where many senior citizens receive less than $100 a month for years of work.
But the truce is bittersweet for President Lucio Gutierrez, who longed to reach a solution with retirees but wanted Congress to approve higher tax increases to finance the pension hike than lawmakers were willing to approve.
Congress rejected Gutierrez`s proposal to raise taxes on beer, which it called a "popular beverage", and instead proposed using money from a state savings fund set up with utility companies` profits to pay for the increase.
Gutierrez has said this fund may not have enough cash and he will cut other areas of the budget, if necessary, to pay for the pension hike.
The trouble is that Ecuador`s Social Security Institute doesn`t have enough cash to cover this pension increase for the nation`s 240,000 pensioners.
Under Ecuadorean law, the central government is responsible for 40 percent of pensions and Social Security the remaining 60 percent. But this increase will be covered by the government.
Monday August 2, 11:56 am ET
QUITO, Ecuador, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s foreign public debt totaled $11.165 billion in June, down 0.6 percent from $11.236 billion in May and $11.239 billion in June 2003, the Central Bank said on Monday
Foreign public sector debt totaled 37.2 percent of gross domestic product in June, compared with 37.4 percent in May and to 41.3 percent in June 2003, the bank said in its monthly bulletin.
Ecuador restructured its debt after defaulting on Brady bonds and Eurobonds in 1999.
Es gibt nicht viele Länder, die ihre Auslandsverschuldung zurückführen...
welche Guano ist auf akruellem Niveau denn zu präferieren?
Ich finde es ein wenig seltsam, dass sich die 12 er relativ gut erholt hat, während die 30 er noch bei 74 herumdümpelt.
die sind beide in den letzten Tagen ganz ordentlich gelaufen, vielleicht sollte man da erst mal eine technische Beruhigung abwarten. Welche nun besser ist, das hängt zu einem Grossteil von der erwarteten Zinsentwicklung ab. Wenn du von steigenden Zinsen am langen Ende ausgehst => ECU12. Wenn du von einem gleichbleibenden (oder sinkenden) Zinsniveau ausgehst => ECU30.
Ganz interessant, dass die Ecuadorianer sich seit einem Jahr ohne neue IWF Auszahlung "duchmogeln".
Das politische Risiko ist und bleibt DER Risikofaktor.
Tuesday August 24, 3:27 pm ET
(Recasts with comments from Ecuador, changes byline to QUITO)
QUITO, Ecuador, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s attorney general on Tuesday accused Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY - News) of breaching its contract to produce crude oil in the Andean nation and said the company could lose its production rights.
In a letter to the Energy Ministry, Attorney General Jose Maria Borja said Occidental had failed to ask permission from the government before transferring a 40 percent stake in its operations in Amazon jungle block 15 to Canada`s EnCana Corp. (Toronto:ECA.TO - News). Occidental retains the other 60 percent.
Borja also said that Los Angeles-based Occidental had repeatedly failed to respect limits set for oil production and to turn in drilling reports, all which could give the government the right to seek to unilaterally end its contract.
"The reiterated breach of the hydrocarbons law, norms for hydrocarbons operations, and the block 15 contract are motivation enough for this contract to be ended," Borja wrote.
To end the contract, state oil company Petroecuador would have to file a request at the Energy Ministry. Occidental would then provide a defense, Energy Minister Eduardo Lopez said.
Occidental said the field represents about 8 percent of its worldwide production, 4 percent of its proven reserves, and 2 percent of its total property, plant and equipment.
The company said it believed it had complied with all material obligations under the contract and planned to meet with Ecuadorean officials to resolve the matter.
According to figures from the Energy Ministry, Occidental produces close to 103,000 barrels per day of crude in Ecuador, equivalent to about a fifth of the country`s total oil output.
Borja`s review comes after an international arbitration panel formed in London last month awarded Occidental a $75 million tax rebate. Ecuador is fighting this ruling in British courts, arguing that oil firms are not entitled to tax rebates that local exporters receive to promote their sales abroad.
The tax battle has raised tensions between oil-dependent Ecuador and companies that produce crude in its Amazon region, many of which have also demanded the rebate in local courts.
Borja told reporters on Tuesday that he would also look at EnCana`s role in Occidental`s breach of contract.
In a 2000 statement posted on its Web site, Occidental said it had agreed to farm out a 40 percent stake in block 15 to EnCana. Energy Minister Eduardo Lopez told reporters he had not received a request for permission for the transaction until July 2004.
Lopez declined to comment on Borja`s report since he would act as judge in the review to determine whether Occidental`s contract with state oil firm Petroecuador should be revoked.
Occidental shares were down 80 cents to $49.15 in late afternoon trading on Tuesday. (Additional reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York)
Government ups its 2005 oil price assumption
According to Economy Minister Mauricio Yepez,the government is now aiming to base next year ’s budget proposals on an average oil price of US$22 pb.The government needs to submit the 2005 budget draft to Congress by the end of this month.
Yesterday ’s announcement by Yepez represents a change of plan compared with just three weeks ago. At that stage,Ramiro Galarza - the deputy Economy Minister - had indicated that the oil price assumption would remain unchanged compared with 2004,at a conservative US$18pb.
So far this year,Petroecuador has received an average price of above US$31pb for its oil.And Oriente crude is currently trading at US$34pb (US$11.4pb lower than WTI).Against this backdrop,the government can still claim that the proposed US$22pb average price for next year is a relatively conservative assumption.Nonetheless,Yepez has also conceded that world oil prices in 2005 are likely to be lower than this year.The decision to raise the 2005 forecast is a sign that the government realizes that it will beunder considerable pressure from Congress - as well as an indication of the continuing difficulties in closing the financing gap.It means that there will be much less of a cushion for negative oil price surprises next year.
EnCana seeks $1.5 bln for Ecuador assets-source
Thursday August 26, 7:00 am ET
By Charlie Zhu
(Adds details, background)
SINGAPORE, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Canada`s EnCana Corp. (Toronto:ECA.TO - News) has put its Ecuador oil assets up for sale for around $1.5 billion to cut debt and focus on its North American operations, a banking source familiar with the situation said on Thursday.
EnCana, which began investing in Ecuador five years ago and produces about 73,000 barrels per day (bpd) there, has approached China`s dominant oil and gas producer, PetroChina (HKSE:0857.HK - News; NYSE:PTR - News), said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The assets up for sale included EnCana`s 36.3 percent stake in a 500-km (310-mile), 450,000-bpd underground pipeline in Ecuador, he said.
EnCana`s oil reserves in the Latin American country are estimated at 350 million barrels and its production capacity there could be raised to more than 100,000 bpd, he added.
Oil and gas corporate finance advisory firm Harrison Lovegrove & Co. Ltd., which has operations in London, Houston and Perth, Australia, is advising EnCana for the sale, he added.
EnCana, North America`s top independent oil explorer, started looking for buyers for its Ecuador assets several weeks ago, the source added.
"It is being sold and there is no question that the Chinese are looking hard at it," he said, adding that cash-rich PetroChina was looking at it.
"It is part of its (EnCana`s) strategy of rationalising, focusing its business on North America," the source said. About 90 percent of EnCana`s assets are located in North America.
"It is about a billion and a half dollars or more," he said, when asked how much EnCana wanted to raise from the sale. He added that "a host of global buyers", including some other national oil companies, were eyeing the assets.
A PetroChina official in Hong Kong declined to comment when asked whether the company was looking at EnCana`s Ecuador assets. EnCana could not be reached for comment.
Oil-guzzling China, the world`s second-largest oil consumer, sources more than a third of its needs overseas and has been driving its state oil firms abroad to secure reserves.
Calgary-based EnCana said it wanted to sell up to $1.5 billion of Canadian properties when it announced its $2.2 billion-acquisition of U.S. gas producer Tom Brown Inc. in April.
Moody`s Investors Service lowered its long-term debt ratings on EnCana to Baa2 in July, reflecting the company`s increased leverage resulting from the all-cash acquisition.
EnCana had capital expenditure of $5.1 billion in 2003 and cash flow from operations of $4.3 billion, Moody`s said.
Last month, EnCana said it sold oil properties to Canada`s Harvest Energy Trust (Toronto:HTE_u.TO - News) for C$526 million ($395 million). The assets, located in east-central and southern Alberta, produce 19,500 barrels of oil equivalent a day.
PetroChina posted on Thursday a net profit of 45.3 billion yuan ($5.47 billion) for the six months through June versus 38.62 billion yuan a year ago, largely on high oil prices.
PetroChina`s first-half oil and gas output rose 2.7 percent to 456 million barrels of oil equivalents from a year earlier, with domestic crude oil output edging up 0.5 percent to 388 million barrels because of dwindling production at its ageing Daqing oilfield in northeast China, the country`s largest. (US$=8.28 yuan=C$1.31)
Ecuador had an IMF Fund loan that expired in April after the country failed to meet program commitments.
Acting Central Bank manager Mauricio Pareja told reporters on Monday that the Andean nation doesn`t need credit disbursements from the IMF but may need the Fund to unlock cash from the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.
Pareja said the Central Bank needed "to see if the multilaterals are willing to go without the Fund," while adding that the country still may reach an agreement with the IMF for next year.
Ecuadorean Finance Minister Mauricio Yepez will meet with multilateral lenders in Washington next week to discuss budget financing for 2005. Yepez is seeking $500 million from the IADB, World Bank and Andean Development Corp, according to an interview published in Expreso newspaper.
Pareja said that Ecuador would pay $400 million more to multilateral and government lenders than what it would receive in disbursements this year, a scenario he said could encourage lenders to try to help meet to the nation`s credit needs.
This year, Ecuador lost access to $200 million in disbursements that were tied to its expired IMF loan, he said.
Ecuador`s search for financing comes as the government prepares to send the 2005 draft budget to Congress this week.
Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:39 PM ET
PANAMA CITY, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s president said on Tuesday that improved economic management of his country is likely to win the help of international lenders in shoring up its budget deficit for next year.
Ecuador`s government on Tuesday proposed a $7.344 billion draft central government budget for 2005, up 5.7 percent from this year and including a $484 million deficit.
Ecuador`s President Lucio Gutierrez said he was confident Finance Minister Mauricio Yepez would be well received when he visits international lending organizations, including the International Monetary Fund on Sept. 3, to discuss budget financing.
"We`re very optimistic that there will be support from the IMF," Gutierrez told reporters while in Panama City. "Ecuador has demonstrated responsible economic management. Inflation is currently at an annualized 2.17 percent."
Ecuador is counting on $2 billion in domestic debt issues and foreign credits -- equivalent to 6.3 percent of GDP -- to finance this gap and cover debt principal payments in 2005, according to a copy of a budget summary released on Tuesday.
The loss of $200 million in loan disbursements tied to an expired IMF loan this year has increased concerns about the country`s finances.
Finance Minister Yepez said earlier on Tuesday he was seeking $200 million from the Inter-American Development Bank and $150 million apiece from the World Bank and Andean Development Corp.
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
Thu Sep 2, 2004 04:55 PM ET
QUITO, Ecuador, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Ecuador will seek an operator for its 1-billion barrel Ishpingo-Tambococha-Tiputini oil field in an auction in the second half of 2005, the government said on Thursday.
The Amazon jungle field known by its initials ITT will require investment of $4 billion to get going and could produce 165,000 barrels of heavy crude per day, according to the government.
"We`re going to need strong companies, with capital and technology," Energy Minister Eduardo Lopez told reporters.
"We`ll open this basically in April, 2005," he said, adding that, while contract details have yet to be worked out, the most likely formula would be a joint-venture with state-owned Petroecuador.
Ecuador produces about 513,000 bpd of oil, its greatest source of export income, but it needs foreign investors to provide the resources and infrastructure to develop fields like ITT. One of Ecuador`s richest fields, it lies 235 miles (375 km) east of the Andean mountain capital Quito.
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
QUITO, Ecuador, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean tax receipts rose 12.8 percent in August to $248.9 million compared with a year earlier, the Internal Revenue Service said on Monday.
Net tax collection, which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits, was $220.6 million in August 2003, according to a monthly report by the Service that was posted on its web site (www.sri.gov.ec).
The country`s 12 percent Value Added Tax reeled in $157.9 million in August 2004, 9.9 percent more than a year ago.
In the first eight months of the year, Ecuador collected $2.203 billion, 0.9 percent more than the government`s target for this period. Ecuador aims to collect $3.218 billion this year in taxes, its main source of government revenue.
Vice Minister of Finance Galarza said yesterday that the
government might offer a voluntary swap of its ’12 bond in
an aim to eliminate a call option that caps the market price
of the bonds. Meanwhile, Galarza said that the government
has reduced its external debt by $341 million so far this
year, which would make it easier to negotiate a $500
million aid package with multilaterals to finance next year’s
budget. In order to obtain the required financing, Ecuador is
seeking a Staff Monitoring Agreement (SMA) with the IMF
that does not disburse funds but allows other multilaterals to
lend. The government would like the conditionality of
the SMA to be limited to quarterly fiscal and other
macro targets, but the IMF may still insist on some
structural reforms. The IMF will send a mission to
negotiate this after the October 17 regional elections.
Das wichtigste ist nun, dass der geplante Umtausch der ECU12 Anleihe in eine neue Anleihe (ohne Call) in absehbarer Zeit durchgeführt wird. Bisher begrenzt der Call weitgehend ein ansteigen des Kurses über 100. Dadurch sinkt aber auch nicht der indizierte Zins, was wiederum verhindert, dass sich Ecuador billiger refinanzieren kann. Dieser kleine Teufelskreis muss durch Entfernung des Calls aufgehoben werden.
Debt Liability Management in
Ecuador and Case for Ecu12
Discussions about a debt liability management operation in Ecuador are
resurfacing once again. In mid-September, Undersecretary of Finance Ramiro
Galarza said, “What we are analyzing with some investment banks is to carry
out an optional, voluntary exchange.” Economy Minister Mauricio Yepez has
echoed these comments more recently. These developments are reminiscent of
those of the first quarter of 2004, when the economic authorities were vocal
about their intentions to execute a debt management operation. Like today,
market spreads were tight, Ecuadorian debt was reaching new post-default
highs, and the country was believed to be moving closer to accessing the
international markets. However, at the time, the situation deteriorated following
a round of heightened political uncertainty that contributed to the collapse of
Ecuador debt prices, and with it, the hope of a debt exchange.
We think the prospects for completion of a debt transaction are better this time
around primarily because the government is now devising a strategy that is
markedly different. In its previous attempt, the Gutierrez administration sought
to use resources in the Feirep, an oil fund, to buy back the Ecu30 outright. This
was difficult to swallow domestically, not least because, at the time, the
government was running arrears with public employees and domestic suppliers.
Now, the financing strategy has shifted as the government hopes to raise the
resources for the buyback (or call) of the Ecu12 with an issued placed in the
international markets—something far more palatable.
The domestic context is also more conducive for this type of transaction, in our
view. Though President Gutierrez remains deeply unpopular, the government is
no longer running arrears with public employees. Pensioners also received a
juicy increase during the summer. Overall spending on social sectors has
increased, thanks to allocations authorized from the Feirep. Liquidity at the
central government remains tight, but projected fiscal revenues and Feirep asset
accumulation have increased considerably as a result of the oil windfall. In that
context, the argument that the government is taking care of investors and not the
Ecuadorian people is weaker. From a more administrative standpoint, we
understand that all the requirements for using the Corporación Andina de
Fomento (CAF) as the agent for a debt operation, an idea put forth to increase
transparency, have been met. That was not the case earlier in the year.
Targeting the Ecu12 over the Ecu30 also makes more sense financially.
Previously, the government sought to buy back the lower priced Ecu30,
claiming that it would have been easier to sell it domestically. Buying a lower
priced bond, the argument went, meant buying cheaper debt. In our view, that
would be a good idea if the goal were to maximize overall debt reduction.
However, the central government faces pressing liquidity needs, and taking out
the Ecu12 would provide a greater relief. At current market prices, for every $100 used to buy back the Ecu12, the government retires about $101 in debt but
saves a touch above $12 in interest annually. If $100 is used to buy back the
Ecu30, the government retires $122 dollars but saves around $10 in 2005
interests. Savings in 2006 are far greater given the Ecu12 mandatory redemption
schedule of the Ecu12. 1
All these factors make us more hopeful than what we were in the first quarter
about the Ecuador’s ability to successfully complete a debt liability management
operation. Naturally, for this to take place the government must regain access to
the international market, something that remains to be seen. However, locking in
an agreement with multilaterals, which would bring greater certainty to the
financing of the 2005 budget, would go a long way to help in this case. We
expect such an agreement in December.
The government could target the Ecu12 either by exercising the call or by
conducting a voluntary swap in the secondary market. Exercising the call is the
most likely scenario, provided the Ecu12 trades near or above par. The Ecu12
can be called in whole or in part at par on any interest payment date provided
the issuers gives at least a 45 day notice prior to the coupon payment on every
May 15 and November 15. This places the next call on May 15, 2005, and the
last date for the call announcement on March 30.
An Ecu12 swap in the secondary market is a transaction no different from the
many seen in the past with other credits. The salient feature is that the
government would be selling its right to call the Ecu12 to investors in return for
a lower coupon (and presumably longer term) call free issue. This would help
the government realize interest and NPV savings, the amount of which would
largely depend on the Ecu12’s call valuation at the time of the swap. For
illustration purposes, assuming the government issues another eight-year call-
free Ecuador 2012 bond, we estimate those gains at 47 bp (more on this below).
The government could partially finance a buyback (or a call) with Feirep funds.
With oil prices as high as they have been, the Feirep may be receiving about $60
million per month. According to the law governing the Feirep, 70% of this
windfall must be used for debt buybacks. If the bond were bought in May, the
government could potentially target about half of the issue. However, given
political and social constraints, we don’t see a large amount of Feirep resources
going toward an outright buyback. But this could change if the government were
to, almost simultaneously, issue in the international markets so that the Feirep
does buy back the Ecu12 and the central government receives a roughly similar
financing from foreign investors. The end result is similar to a debt swap. The main difference is in the direction of the flows. This latter and more indirect
approach provides the Feirep with a vehicle to channel its increasing resources
to buy back debt to comply with the law that governs this fund. 2
Ecu12 Becoming Attractive Carry Instrument
Investors sharing our view that the Ecu12 will keep a technical bid as a result of
growing expectations of a call at par or a buyback at near par sometime next
year should favor this bond. True, the Ecu12’s negative convexity, its higher
dollar price, and its callability risk are not particularly attractive properties.
Nevertheless, the bond can be seen as something close to a high yielding carry
play. It yields north of 12%, with an option-adjusted duration of less than three
years. Bond volatility is declining rapidly as price approaches par. Volatility is
likely to decline further if, as we expect, the technical bid persists during the
foreseeable future. This would put the Ecu12 among the highest yielding fixed
income instruments per unit of volatility (in financial jargon, high Sharpe Ratio).
Callability is a risk, but even then, returns appear attractive considering that the
yield to the call in May is 13.6%. We estimate the Ecu12 to be nearly one point undervalued. At $99, we estimate
the Ecu12 call value at $2.47 (assumes a 25% volatility), equivalent to 49 bp
spread, placing Ecu12’s option free spread at 770 bp or nearly 60 bp wide to the
Ecu30. With the Ecu30 trading at 710 bp spread, we think Ecu12 should be
trading at almost par, consistent with an option adjusted spread of 730 bp and a
yield to next call of slightly above 12%. The Ecu12 option adjusted duration is
2.75 years, making it an even higher yielding instrument per unit of duration risk. We estimate the Ecu12 to be nearly one point undervalued. At $99, we estimate
the Ecu12 call value at $2.47 (assumes a 25% volatility), equivalent to 49 bp
spread, placing Ecu12’s option free spread at 770 bp or nearly 60 bp wide to the
Ecu30. With the Ecu30 trading at 710 bp spread, we think Ecu12 should be
trading at almost par, consistent with an option adjusted spread of 730 bp and a
yield to next call of slightly above 12%. The Ecu12 option adjusted duration is
2.75 years, making it an even higher yielding instrument per unit of duration risk.
Provided it is bought at a discount to par, we think the Ecu12 offers a better
risk/reward profile than the Ecu30. We think there is a limited set of scenarios
under which the Ecu30 would outperform the Ecu12. In the table below, we
provide expected returns at May 15, 2005 (the date of Ecu12 call) for both the
Ecu12 and Ecu30 under a different set of exit spread scenarios. We capped the
Ecu12 at par at horizon date, under the assumption that the government would call the bonds on that date. We also incorporate our U.S. rate environment
provided by UBS U.S. economic team (they see the 10-year and 30-year U.S.
Treasury at the end of 2Q05 at 5.3% and 6%, respectively). The Ecu12 annualized return to the May 15, 2005 call date is capped at 13.6%.
To break even with this return, the Ecu30 price would need to reach nearly 84,
an 11.8% yield, or a 15 bp tightening from current levels ($82 at the time of
writing). Investors with the view that Ecu30 yields would go below this yield
should disregard this note’s recommendation to favor the Ecu12. But before
they do so, they should keep in mind that: 1) on a spread basis, the Ecu30
tightening that would be required to break even with the Ecu12 would be larger
if, in fact, our bearish U.S. Treasury outlook materializes; and 2) the Ecu30 is
also callable and hence its upside will also be capped on further strength, though
admittedly the tightening required before the call begins to be binding is
07 Oct 2004 2:26 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-New York-October 7, 2004: Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, has today upgraded Ecuador`s long-term foreign currency rating to `B-` from `CCC+`. The short-term rating is raised to `B` from `C`. The Rating Outlook is Stable. Fitch`s rating action reflects improvements in access to financing, spending restraint and export growth.
`Although Ecuador`s fiscal and external liquidity remains very tight, access to financing from local sources has improved, in part because of higher oil receipts,` said Morgan C. Harting, sovereign analyst. The social security institute has been a particularly important source for the government`s gross domestic issuance of US$1.8 billion through August, covering the bulk of the expected US$2.5 billion in financing needs for the full year. Purchases of $155 million in outstanding domestic debt through September by the FIEREP oil fund has helped make space for local borrowing. Financing needs have also been reduced somewhat because of spending restraint, a development that appeared less likely earlier in the year when arrears were mounting and protesters successfully lobbied for an increase in pension benefits of 0.5% of GDP.
Increases in private oil production and higher prices have helped boost export receipts by 23% through August, while imports have grown by 11%, underpinning a shift in the trade balance from a deficit to a surplus. Net external inflows and improvements in domestic confidence, in turn, have helped drive a 12% accumulation of bank deposits through July. More recently, however, a large domestic bank experienced some confidence-related deposit losses, although deposits in the system as a whole have remained stable and no government support has been extended. This incident underscores ongoing risks in the banking system, particularly in the context of dollarization without recourse to a lender of last resort to provide emergency liquidity.
While economic growth is projected at between 5% and 6% this year, most of it will be driven by the oil sector and is a one-time boost related to the opening of a new pipeline last year. Outside the oil sector, growth will likely be under 2% for the second year in a row. In order for medium term growth to be sustainable, more progress on reforms in the electricity, oil, banking and telecommunications sectors will be critical to support competitiveness. A decline in inflation to under 3% has helped stabilize the real exchange rate, but this is not a substitute for true improvements to productivity as a driver of growth.
Going forward, further improvements to Ecuador`s creditworthiness would hinge on improvements in central government finances and structural reforms to support productivity growth. The ratings could come under pressure if central government imbalances widen, if recent banking sector pressures were exacerbated, and if arrears to creditors are generated.
Contact: Morgan C. Harting +1-212-908-0820 or Roger M. Scher +1-212-908-0240, New York.
Media Relations: James Jockle +1-212-908-0547, New York.
Thu Nov 11, 2004 04:32 PM ET
(Adds commitment to legislation, background)
QUITO, Ecuador, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The World Bank will lend Ecuador $200 million for its 2005 financing even though the country will not sign a formal agreement with the International Monetary Fund, the economy minister said on Thursday.
"This is a great relief for Ecuador," said Mauricio Yepez after meeting World Bank representative Eduardo Somensatto, adding Ecuador had promised to push Congress next year to open the oil, electricity and pension sectors to foreign investors.
The World Bank money was crucial for financing the $480 million central government deficit programmed for next year in the 2005 budget bill.
The bank`s board will approve the loan in January, said Yepez, adding he expected confirmation of a similarly-sized credit from the Inter-American Development Bank in the next few days.
Both loans will be made despite Ecuador`s failure to sign an agreement with the IMF. But the three multilateral organizations have agreed the IMF will make quarterly reviews of the Ecuadorean economy, Yepez said.
News of the loan came as Wall Street analysts cast doubt on Ecuador`s ability to obtain the multilateral cash due to the political strife caused by an opposition attempt to impeach President Lucio Gutierrez.
The drive to oust the president over alleged misuse of public funds during an election campaign -- a charge he denied -- collapsed on Tuesday when the opposition surprisingly fell short of the 51 votes it needed in the 100-member Congress to start a hearing.
"Congress took an important step towards economic and political stability this week, and wouldn`t it be great if they could support the structural reforms we need," said Yepez, referring to the legislation required by the multilaterals.
But Yepez declined to comment on whether the president`s new congressional alliance would support the bills.
Ecuador soon hopes to continue its financial rehabilitation by swapping $1.25 billion worth of global bonds, after which it hopes to issue its first fresh debt since its 1999 default and subsequent restructuring.
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
By Mercedes Alvaro
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
QUITO (Dow Jones)--Ecuador is planning to issue some $500 million in fresh
sovereign debt next year, and, separately, is still aiming to exchange and
repurchase some its foreign debt obligations, Economy Minister Mauricio Yepez
"We`re going to come to market with a small issue, around $500 million, next
year," he told Dow Jones Newswires. "But the form and the timing ... will depend
on international market conditions."
Though he wouldn`t go into detail, Yepez said that banks have already been
underwriting and management offers. But any negotiations would have to wait
"until the political tensions recede," he added.
Opposition lawmakers had recently initiated a push to impeach President
Gutierrez, but the effort collapsed earlier this week.
Good economic performance should also enable Ecuador to issue debt on more
favorable terms. The Andean nation expects to end this year with inflation
running at an annual 2%, well below the original 3% projection, while economic
growth should amount to 6%.
Yepez said some of the proceeds from the issue could be used to repurchase
Ecuador`s global bonds coming due in 2030. "We have the intention to buy it
but it also depends on the market and the bondholders," he said.
In January, the government intends to finalize plans for a debt exchange
involving its globals due in 2012 in a liability management operation.
banks have already started to make bids on managing this offer.
Ecuador defaulted on its debt in 1999, and in 2000 undertook a swap with new
global bonds due in 2012 and 2030.
Beginning in 2006, it is required to start buying back its obligations
in 2012. Yepez wants to extend the maturity of these papers to 2014 and
the repurchase clause.
Yepez said he is currently seeking various regulatory approvals for the
"I`m optimistic, but I hope that we are able to take advantage of (good) market
conditions now to proceed with the exchange by January," Yepez said.
The possible swap of the 2012 papers, the intended repurchase of the 2030
and the issuance of fresh debt all form part of a comprehensive strategy to
improve the country`s debt profile.
The government is also repurchasing domestic debt and paying down other
obligations with windfall revenues from record-high oil prices.
In a message that will be greeted positively by the markets and the IMF, Economy Minister Mauricio Yepez has signalled that the allocation rules for the FEIREP fund will be left intact. "During the two years that remain for the Lucio Gutierrez government, the structure of the oil fund won`t be adjusted."
This contradicts earlier comments from one of President Gutierrez’s aides that the portion of the fund set aside for debt buybacks would be reduced from 70% to 30%.
According to Yepez, any tampering with the FEIREP would undermine efforts to buy back global bonds, an exercise which is planned for early next year.
The news is undoubtedly positive. It would appear that Yepez has been successful in winning Gutierrez round to his – and the “technocrats” – view of how the FEIREP monies should be utilised. Nonetheless, we would be
surprised if this is the final word on the matter, given the strong political pressures for increased current spending.
Thu Dec 30, 2004 03:37 PM ET
QUITO, Ecuador, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s gross domestic product grew by 7.8 percent in the third quarter of 2004 versus the same period of 2003 helped by a booming oil sector, the central bank said on Thursday.
The figure followed growth of 6.5 percent in the first quarter and 10.3 percent in the second quarter and put the Andean country firmly on track to meet its target of 6 percent growth during all of 2004.
The value of output by the key petroleum sector rose 23.7 percent against the third quarter of 2003, thanks to higher production and prices, the bank said.
But the government expects economic growth to ease in 2005 to an annual rate of 3.9 percent, as growth in crude oil output slows.
Ecuador`s economy grew by 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2003 versus the same period of 2002.
Ecuador: Strong message of fiscal commitment
President Gutierrez and his economic team speak with one voice
· We hosted a meeting with President Lucio Gutierrez and his economic team of Finance Minister Mauricio Yepez and Vice-Minister of Finance Ramiro Galarza. These are our main conclusions from the meeting.
· We believe the government is strongly committed to fiscal discipline at this time. President Gutierrez and his economic team came across as unified and strongly committed to maintaining fiscal discipline. The president stressed that permanent expenditures are only justified with permanent revenues. Asked how he would use a likely substantial financing surplus this year, President Gutierrez said that he would rather "be disciplined and fall from power than be undisciplined and stay in office". The economic team strongly rejected the suggestion that there are plans to reform the fiscal responsibility law (FRL).
· The economic team`s overriding near-term objective is to gain access to external markets. The principal purpose of gaining market access is to engage in liability management, not to finance new spending. The UNDP has been appointed to help select investment banks transparently. A final decision on a swap involving the Global 12 bond is expected shortly. If the full outstanding amount of Global 12 bonds is not swapped, the government may still exercise the call option on the remaining outstanding bonds.
· The longer-term objective is to improve financing of the private sector. To this end, initially the government will use the FEIREP oil fund to extend the maturity and reduce interest payments on external debt. Buybacks of external debt and net domestic debt buybacks should not be ruled out, but are ultimately a political decision. Once the debt is restructured, the government`s financing needs and reliance on social security fund financing should diminish, enabling this institution to become a more important source of financing to the private sector.
· IMF`s Trevor Alleyne expressed confidence in the government`s commitment to fiscal discipline. He explained the IMF`s role as one of providing "Mini Article IV`s every quarter", that is, continuing monitoring of the government`s performance. There is no standby agreement, nor a staff-monitored program. He agreed with the economic team that it is premature to talk about changes to the FRL, since the current benign financing position owes much to high oil prices. By contrast, a first step could be to ensure that the 20% of the FEIREP fund earmarked for macroeconomic stabilization is in fact allocated to this purpose.
· The government will pursue structural reforms, but maintains a Plan B if Congress does not cooperate. President Gutierrez said he expects the current benign political sentiment in Congress to continue for some time. He will take advantage of this by submitting soon a troika of reforms - the hydrocarbon law, social security, and electricity reforms - in one package. If the package fails to win passage through Congress, however, the government believes it can attract private investment in the oil and electricity sectors within the existing institutional framework.
January 18, 2005
Die Jungs & Mädels von S&P haben aber immerhin mittlerweile auch die Verbesserungen der Kreditqualität Ecuadors bemerkt
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor`s) Jan. 24, 2005--Standard & Poor`s Ratings Services
said today that it raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign
credit ratings on the Republic of Ecuador to `B-` from `CCC+`. Standard &
Poor`s also affirmed its short-term `C` foreign and local ratings on Ecuador.
The outlook on the ratings is stable.
According to Standard & Poor`s Ratings Services credit analyst Lisa
Schineller, the upgrade reflects more comfortable levels of financing for the
government`s 2005 budget given access to official funding amid a
high-oil-price environment and ongoing improvement in the debt burden.
"The government is expected to improve the profile of its external debt
during 2005, given an important financing cushion (about US$400 million) from
the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank," said Ms. Schineller.
"This funding should be made available following the International Monetary
Fund`s on-balance positive assessment of macroeconomic management by the
Ecuadorian government (as contained in its `Assessment Letter` to the World
Bank)," she added.
Ms. Schineller explained that Ecuador`s plans to pursue a swap/buy-back
of its Global 2012 bond would reduce interest and principal payments beginning
in 2005 and 2006, respectively. This follows liability management operations
undertaken in 2004 using resources from the oil stabilization fund (FEIREP)
that improved the profile of domestically issued debt. Standard & Poor`s does
not expect FEIREP to be used to finance the central government deficit in 2005.
"The improved creditworthiness also reflects the decline in Ecuador`s
government debt burden," Ms. Schineller said. "Net central government debt is
projected at around 39% of GDP in 2005, and central government interest
payments are projected at 17% of revenue, down from over 20% several years
ago. In addition, President Lucio Gutiérrez and his economic team, whose
management of demands for higher wages and pensions was better than expected,
are anticipated to continue to hold the line on increased expenditure amid a
high oil-price environment," she noted.
However, central government payroll expenses are projected to double by
the end of 2005 from 2001 figures. Coupled with interest and other
nondiscretionary spending (earmarked revenue and transfers to local
governments), Ecuador`s expenditure flexibility is very limited. Subsidies on
pensions and petroleum derivatives (including cooking gas) further constrain
room to maneuver. Ms. Schineller added that the government has been unable to
push forward with politically difficult reform that would fundamentally
strengthen the fiscal accounts over the medium term, which is needed to
bolster Ecuador`s fiscal position ahead of a decline in world oil prices.
"The stable outlook balances the risk surrounding the government`s
ability to cover its financing needs against calls for additional spending
given continued high oil prices," Ms. Schineller said. "Advancement of fiscal
measures to improve expenditure and revenue flexibility and a coherent
strategy to increase private sector oil production could support improved
creditworthiness. Conversely, the ratings could come under downward pressure
if oil prices fall and the government cannot adjust its fiscal balances
accordingly," she concluded.
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador plans to sell as much as $750 million of international bonds this year, the government`s first foreign debt sale since defaulting in 1999, to help finance social programs and boost economic growth, central bank President Angel Cordova said.
The South American country is accepting bids from banks to manage the sale of the five-, eight- and 10-year bonds, which will pay interest of 9.5 percent a year, Cordova said in an interview from Quito.
Ecuador`s economy may grow 5 percent this year, exceeding the government`s 3.9 percent target, Cordova said. The economy grew 6.6 percent last year.
Cordova said inflation in Ecuador will remain ``very controlled.`` Ecuador`s annual inflation rate was 1.7 percent in January.
Mon Mar 28, 2005 04:37 PM ET
(Recasts, adds explanation, quote)
QUITO, Ecuador, March 28 (Reuters) - Ecuador on Monday called off a planned bond swap and was reconsidering another debt issue because higher U.S. interest rates were sapping funds from emerging markets, the economy minister said.
Ecuador had had planned to exchange 2012 global bonds (ECUGLB12=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) , which carry a 12-percent coupon, for cheaper paper.
The country issued $1.25 billion worth of global bonds as part of a restructuring deal in 2000 after it defaulted on foreign debt in 1999.
But higher U.S. interest rates have forced the government to call off the swap and also reconsider plans to raise up to $750 million in a separate bond issue.
"The market has been hit hard," Economy Minister Mauricio Yepez told Reuters, commenting on the outflow of funds from emerging market debt because of recent U.S. interest rate increases.
Higher U.S. rates increase the allure of safe-haven U.S. paper and make riskier, normally much higher-yielding emerging debt less attractive.
The price of Ecuador`s 2012 global bond sank to 97.688 on Monday following last week`s decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a quarter percent.
This price would mean a swap makes no sense to Ecuador, Yepez said.
But the $750 million issue might still go ahead.
"We`ll wait to see if the market gives us a chance to get in again. At the moment it isn`t," Yepez said.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
ich verfolge die Ecuador-Anleihen erst seit kurzem. Eine Kündigung der 12er-Anleihe im Mai wird wohl nicht erfolgen. Ist Dir bekannt, wie es bei dieser Anleihe um weitere Kündigungsbedingungen aussieht?
Regierungskrise in Ecuador
Notstand in Ecuadors Hauptstadt aufgehoben
Grafik: Proteste in der Hauptstadt Quito]
Ecuadors Präsident Lucio Gutiérrez hat den Ausnahmezustand für die Hauptstadt Quito und das Umland nach nur knapp einem Tag wieder aufgehoben. Die Maßnahme habe dazu gedient, ihm die notwendigen Vollmachten zur Auflösung des Obersten Gerichtshofes zu geben, sagte der Staatschef bei einer Pressekonferenz in Quito.
Zugleich kündigte Gutiérrez an, er habe mit dem Präsidenten des Einkammer-Parlaments, Omar Quintana, vereinbart, dass die Parlamentarier noch heute zu einer Sondersitzung zusammenkommen sollten. Dabei solle die Auflösung des Gerichtshofes bestätigt sowie ein neues Gesetz zur Regelung der Ernennung der Obersten Richter behandelt werden.
Streit um Oberstes Gericht ist Auslöser der Staatskrise
Gutiérrez rief das Parlament auf, das Gesetz zügig zu verabschieden, damit es endlich einen von politischer Einflussnahme freien Gerichtshof gebe. Der Machtkampf mit der Opposition hatte am 8. Dezember begonnen, als die damalige Parlamentsmehrheit von Gutiérrez den Gerichtshof auflöste und neue Richter ernannte. Die Opposition prangerte den Staatschef daraufhin als "Diktator" an und forderte die Abberufung der Richter.
Nachdem mehrere Versuche einer Einigung zwischen Regierung und Opposition auf ein neues Gesetz zur Bestimmung der Richter gescheitert waren, hatte Gutiérrez das Gericht am Tag zuvor aufgelöst. Verfassungsrechtler betonten jedoch, dazu sei der Staatschef nicht berechtigt. In Quito demonstrierten im Laufe der Woche zehntausende Menschen gegen die Regierung und forderten den Rücktritt von Gutiérrez.
Stand: 17.04.2005 02:22 Uhr
Waere einé schoene Tradingmoeglichkeit gewesen.
Kann mich ehrlich gesagt nicht daran erinnern, dass ein
Staat aufgrund politischer Entwicklungen zahlungsunfaehig wurde.
Mal von einigen afrikanischen STaaten (Elfenbeinkueste)
abgesehen, aber wer da investierte war selber Schuld.
in Argentinien lag ja wohl eine klassische Überschuldung vor, die aufgrund einer verfehlten Wirtschaftspolitik entstanden war. Die Verschuldung in Ecuador betraegt gerade mal 36% des BIP.
Ich gebe Dir allerdings Recht, dass sich Ecuador an Argentinien ein Beispiel nehmen koennte.
Allerdings kommt ja Ecuador gerade erst aus dem Default, das waere dann schon etwas dreist.
Fri Jun 3, 2005 06:27 PM ET
QUITO, Ecuador, June 3 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s central bank warned on Friday that President Alfredo Palacio`s plans to eliminate an oil fund linked to debt payments and suppress limits on government spending ran the risk of threatening the country`s financial stability.
In a move that has worried Wall Street, Palacio has presented a reform bill to parliament that proposes to eliminate the oil fund -- known as the FEIREP by its Spanish initials -- and use its money for budget spending and social and development programs. The bill would also end legal limits on the growth of government spending.
Under current law, 70 percent of the FEIREP fund -- which receives oil export income and contained $700 million at the end of 2004 -- is dedicated to paying government debt. Investors see it as a mechanism that bolster Ecuador`s ability to repay its more than $14 billion public debt.
In a report to Congress, the Central Bank of Ecuador said the proposal to suppress the curbs on spending and eliminate the oil fund "introduces severe risks for fiscal sustainability and even for the dollarization system."
Oil-exporter Ecuador adopted the U.S. dollar as its currency in 2000 after defaulting on foreign debt in 1999.
"The (reform) bill ... eliminates the whole idea of economic prevision," the bank said in its report.
Congress has until June 18 to decide on the proposal from Palacio, who was named president in April after Congress removed Lucio Gutierrez following mass protests over his changes to the Supreme Court.
Gutierrez, unpopular for following strict economic policies recommended by the International Monetary Fund, was the Andean country`s third elected president to be toppled in eight years.
The central bank Friday also questioned assertions by Palacio and his Economy Minister Rafael Correa that tapping the funds in FEIREP would revitalize the economy and help improve the living standards of the poor.
"Such a move does not necessarily ... guarantee or strengthen the possibilities of growth," it said.
The central bank recommended that parliament reject Palacio`s proposal and keep the oil fund as a mechanism to help sustain the growth that Ecuador has experienced since 2000.
But the bank did support the idea that more of the fund`s resources could be used for social or development projects as long as these were viable and were not simply tied into expanding government spending.
Under former Economy Minister Mauricio Yepez, Ecuador targeted a consolidated budget surplus this year and reported economic growth of almost 7 percent in 2004.
Ecuador is the second-biggest South American crude supplier to the United States behind Venezuela.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
Ecuador economy minister quits in policy spat-govt
Thu Aug 4, 2005 09:09 PM ET
(Recasts with reasons for resignation)
By Alexandra Valencia and Carlos Andrade
QUITO, Ecuador, Aug. 4 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s combative Economy Minister Rafael Correa, who has clashed with the World Bank, resigned on Thursday after a disagreement with President Alfredo Palacio over a loan deal with Venezuela.
In a resignation letter obtained by Reuters, Correa said he had quit because of pressure not to go ahead with a loan from Venezuela which he had hoped would substitute money from multilateral lenders.
Responsibility for the economy ministry has been transferred to Interior Minister Mauricio Gandara, presidential spokesman Andres Seminario told Reuters.
Correa had sought to borrow up to $300 million from Venezuela, whose President Hugo Chavez is trying to use oil money to promote his left-wing, anti-Washington policies throughout Latin America.
In his letter, Correa said Palacio had been irritated that he had tried to negotiate part of the loan without the president`s knowledge.
"With all due respect, Mr. President, I have to say I don`t understand your anger .... I fear that the real problem is the pressure to prevent any relationship with Venezuela," he said, blaming these pressures on unnamed powerful interests within Ecuador.
Correa had recently suffered a setback after the World Bank recently refused to disburse a $100 million loan, a move which the minister called an "offense" to Ecuador.
The refusal came in response to economic policies enacted since Palacio was appointed in April after Congress fired President Lucio Gutierrez for meddling with the Supreme Court.
Citing the need to transfer resources to the country`s poor majority, Ecuador has abolished a petroleum earnings fund mainly earmarked for debt payments and Congress has passed a law to allow workers to spend money from a state pension fund before retirement.
"Correa is a very confrontational guy, increasingly so," said Gianfranco Bertozzi, an emerging markets analysts at Lehman Brothers, just off the phone with contacts in Ecuador.
"I don`t think it`s a secret that he had been sort of a headache for Palacio."
Bertozzi said he understood Gandara would be only temporarily at the helm.
"The sense is that they`ll probably try and stick with a similar line of policy but with someone less confrontational in nature, both locally and abroad."
"At face value you can argue that some of the market will be very relieved to see Correa go, but it really depends on what sort of replacment they put in, whether or not that replacement suggests healing vis a vis the multilaterals," Bertozzi said.
Ecuador`s global bond due to mature in 2012 (ECUGLB12=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was bidding up 0.312 at 100.375 on Thursday while its bond due 2030 (ECUGLB30=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) bid flat on the day 88.000.
Sat Oct 1, 2005 12:41 AM ET
QUITO, Ecuador, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s short-term economic outlook is positive and the government is trying to push through fiscal reforms, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday in a letter urging policy makers to keep spending under control.
"The short-term view is broadly positive. But significant concerns remain about Ecuador`s policy framework and medium-term outlook," said an assessment letter from the IMF.
The letter urges policymakers in the politically unstable Andean country to keep spending under control going into 2006 presidential elections.
Ecuador, an oil exporter benefiting from recent high petroleum prices, does not want IMF loans but needs the Fund to review its economic reform progress on a quarterly basis to receive loans from other organizations, including more than $400 million from the Latin American Reserve Fund.
The Reserve Fund said on Friday the government must undergo a strong fiscal effort in order to secure the loan.
The IMF letter said the Andean country`s 2006 budget included "appropriately conservative tax revenue and oil price assumptions". It said activity in the non-oil sector of the economy was largely unaffected by political turmoil that led to a change of government earlier this year.
But the IMF warned that "underlying fiscal performance has been weakening, reflecting rising primary spending, recently stimulated by expansionary expenditure policies".
The primary surplus of the non-financial public sector is expected to decline in 2005 from 5 percent of gross domestic product to four percent and, the IMF said, the non-oil deficit to rise from 3 percent of GDP to 5 percent.
This rapidly rising deficit reflects growing dependence on currently high but unpredictable oil prices "and points to a pressing need to control government spending", the letter said.
"Even though raising the level for capital spending is certainly warranted, the budget`s planned 40 percent increase is excessive," the letter added.
The economic program of President Alfredo Palacio, who took office in April after President Lucio Gutierrez was fired by Congress, has been criticized as populist on Wall Street.
That policy has included allowing pension fund investors to spend their money early.
"The authorities have introduced some limited tightening of the 2006 budget and are trying to secure consensus for a resumption of structural reforms that would address some vulnerabilities in the fiscal area and the financial system, and support long-term economic growth and the dollarization regime," the letter said.
The IMF letter said Ecuador`s growth outlook for the rest of the year is expected to stay in line with recent trends pointing towards a gross domestic product expansion in 2005 of almost 3 percent, with a similar expansion expected in 2006.
Inflation is expected to remain in the 2 to 2.5 percent range through 2006 while high international oil prices are expected to shift the external current account from a small deficit this year to a virtual balance next year, the letter said.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
on Ecuador`s Caa1 foreign-currency government bond rating to positive from
in light of the country`s improved liquidity position and declining debt ratios.
As a result, the outlook on the Caa1 foreign-currency country ceiling for bonds
and on the Caa2 foreign-currency country ceiling for bank deposits was changed
positive. Ecuador`s local-currency guideline remains at Ba2.
Some of the factors behind Ecuador`s improved liquidity position and
debt ratios include greater access to multilateral and market financing, a
build-up in public sector and overall banking system deposits, and continued
growth in remittances from abroad, Moody`s said. In addition, despite periods of
intense political turmoil and policy uncertainty, the government has maintained
fiscal surpluses at the non-financial-public sector level.
The imbalances at the central government level have been contained despite
of expenditure pressure, said the ratings agency. Key debt indicators have
continued to improve, leaving the government with a lower level of indebtedness
relative to the years before its 1999 default.
Ecuador`s ratings continue to be constrained by important structural
said Moody`s. These include increasingly limited fiscal flexibility in the event
of a downturn in oil prices, limited policy adjustment tools due to
dollarization, an unstable institutional framework aggravated by a high degree
political volatility, and uncertainty over the development of the oil industry.
Potential difficulties in the electricity sector pose a threat to both economic
growth and future fiscal performance, said Moody`s.
Press releases will follow for other issuers affected by today`s rating
seit der liebe Onkel Chavez brav Staatsanleihen aufkauft
um die Länder von Südamerika hinter sich (und natürlich gegen die USA) zu bringen....
Ich werde Ecuador-Anleihen auf jeden Fall derzeit behalten,
zumal der US-Dollar für meine Anleihe z.Zt. auch recht günstig steht und ein Default (Chavez sie Dank) wohl nicht
wahrscheinlich ist und die Freunde nette Zinsen bezahlen.
Von den täglichen Meldungen lasse ich mich nicht verrückt machen.
11,671 % Rendite...... wo kriegt man das denn derzeit sonst noch geboten?
Fri Feb 17, 2006 6:30 PM ET
(Adds background, company reaction)
ECUADOR, Quito, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Ecuador said on Friday it had won over Canadian oil firm EnCana Corp. (ECA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) in an international arbitration case over a $75 million tax dispute.
EnCana in 2003 challenged Ecuador by saying the government had discriminated against it by not allowing the company to claim certain tax rebates.
Ecuador`s attorney general`s office said on Friday the court had ruled against the company.
Ecuador -- the fifth-largest oil producer in South America -- allows exporters to claim rebates on value-added taxes on certain purchases. But Ecuador argues that the oil companies working in the country cannot claim the benefits.
Calgary-based EnCana, North America`s biggest natural gas producer, said it did not expect the ruling to hamper the pending sale of the company`s Ecuadorean operations to a Chinese consortium.
In September, it agreed to sell the assets to state-run National Petroleum Corp. and PetroChina (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) for $1.4 billion, following a long auction.
The $75 million value-added tax has already been paid, and EnCana has not decided if it will appeal the ruling, said Alan Boras, spokesman for EnCana.
"We just learned today ... it`s something we will have to examine," Boras said.
(Additional reporting by Jeffrey Jones in Calgary)
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
QUITO, Ecuador, July 7 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean President Alfredo Palacio on Friday replaced Economy Minister Diego Borja, who had angered the United States with his support for a windfall tax on foreign oil companies, naming a presidential aide who said he would maintain a tight spending policy.
Palacio appointed Armando Rodas, a lawyer and former deputy economy minister, to the post after he accepted Borja's resignation. Rodas said he would keep a tight spending policy, while continuing the government priority to develop social projects.
"I vow before the country to control current spending," Rodas told reporters during his appointment ceremony. "I will maintain and consolidate macroeconomic stability."
Rodas is a close aide of the government's administration secretary, Jose Modesto Apolo, who is considered the president's right-hand man.
Palacio had asked all his 15 ministers for their resignation letters on Thursday in what is a custom in Ecuadorean politics to make high-level changes at the beginning or end of every year.
His government is drawing to an end as the presidential election is set for October. Palacio was appointed by Congress in April last year after his predecessor, Lucio Gutierrez, was ousted by street protests and pressure from lawmakers.
The president was still considering further cabinet changes, said a government spokesman.
"The Cabinet crisis is not over yet," the spokesman, Enrique Proano, told reporters.
Trade Minister Joaquin Zevallos was also replaced on Friday by Roberto Illingworth.
Borja has been under fire from local business groups for his staunch refusal to dilute a new law that forces foreign oil companies in Ecuador to share part of their extra revenues with the state. The law, passed by Congress in April, is blamed by some for stalling free trade talks with the United States.
Borja, who had been in the post only six months, had bitter disagreements with some of Palacio's close aides over possible changes to the language of the oil reform law.
The law compels foreign oil companies to share with the state at least 50 percent of extra revenues above a set benchmark price agreed on their original contracts.
Marjorie Hernandez, a Latin American analyst at HSBC Securities, said Rodas' appointment seemed to reflect "a change in the government's spending policy. It seems there is interest in spending more of the extra oil revenues.
"I think this is more of a political appointment than a technical one. ... Things like this are expected in Ecuador," she said.
Rodas said the government has not made a final decision on plans to buy back the rest of its global bonds due in 2012 later this year.
He also refrained from confirming his predecessor's fiscal targets, such as the country's forecast to end this year with a with a primary non-financial surplus of 6 percent of the gross domestic product.
Ecuador's global bonds due in 2012 <ECULGLB12=RR> were slightly up at 0.125 to bid 102.5 and to yield 4.501 percent.
Ecuador bonds have so far gained 8.4 percent, according to JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) <11EMJ><.JPMEMBIPLUS>, making them the second-best performer on the index benchmark after Argentina.
Rodas, who was the deputy economy minister until the end of last year, will become Palacio's fourth economy minister since he came to power last year.
Ecuador, South America's fifth-largest oil producer, expects to receive up to $2 billion in extra oil revenues in the next 12 months, spawned by the oil reform law and the sale of crude from the seized oilfields of an American company.
the Alfredo Palacio administration during its remaining six months in office, in ML`s view. While a lot has been said
about disagreements inside the cabinet regarding the implementation of the New Hydrocarbons Law (NHL), we see
Borja’s departure as more connected to his opposition of an increase in spending financed with the new revenues,
and a decrease in import tariffs of raw materials used by companies affected by the termination of the ATPDEA
danke, dass Du den Thread "am leben" bewarst. Ich habe vor einiger Zeit die letzten ECU30 zu um 100% verkloppt.
Bin mal gespannt, wie es politisch nun in ECU weitergeht.
in meinen "wilden Zeiten" war ich mit ca. 20 % Depotanteil in Ecuador investiert. Heute sind es knappe 2 %. In der Vergangenheit waren unsichere Phasen gute Kaufgelegenheiten. Solange der Ölpreis hoch bleibt, wird sich Ecuador weiterhin "durchwurschteln". :-)
PS: Der Bereich Junkbonds wurde in den letzten Monaten kaum genutzt. Ich hoffe, dass ich hier in Ruhe ohne Streit und Laberei wie im Bondboard meine Infos sammeln kann.
BNAmericas Monday, July 10, 2006
Ecuador's and Brazil's respective state oil companies Petroecuador and Petrobras have signed a five-year strategic alliance agreement to develop initiatives throughout the former country's hydrocarbons chain, Ecuador's energy ministry said in a statement.
The two are most interested in storage, refining, biofuels development and E&P, a Petroecuador spokesperson told BNamericas.
Petrobras is particularly interested in E&P of the ITT (Ishpingo-Tambochocha-Tiputini) oilfields in Ecuador's north,
as well as the Sur Oriente Ecuatoriano blocks, the official said.
Ecuador's President Alfredo Palacio will decide whether to carry out the E&P works with Petrobras under the strategic alliance framework or through an international tender, the spokesperson said. Petroecuador would be ready to tender the Sur Oriente Ecuatoriano blocks next year.
The ITT block has 900 million barrels of proven reserves that have been certified by France's Oil Institute (INP). Investment for the project is estimated at a minimum US$2bn.
Petrobras and Petroecuador will form a committee within the next few days that will identify and propose projects to the presidents of both companies.
Petrobras recently announced a vast increase to its January 2007-December 2011 budget, and aims to direct US$12bn toward international operations in the period.
Of the total, Petrobras will invest US$500mn in Ecuador during the five-year period, the spokesperson said, citing Petrobras' international director Nestor Cunat Cervero.
The strategic alliance agreement signed between Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) and Petroecuador will be renewed automatically for additional five-year terms.
07-10-06 11:06 AM EST
QUITO -(Dow Jones)- The minister widely regarded as the right-hand man of Ecuadorean President Alfredo Palacio left his job Monday, saying he had become a political liability.
Public Administration Minister Jose Modesto Apolo told Dow Jones Newswires he resigned after being blamed for instigating last week's cabinet changes, which saw the ouster of Economy Minister Diego Borja and Trade Minister Joaquin Zevallo. Apolo said he has been accused of being the real power in President Palacio's government, and pulling all the strings behind the scenes.
Apolo said Monday that Palacio accepted his resignation.
Borja, the former economy minister, accused Apolo of constantly pushing for more government spending. Borja said Apolo was also responsible for drawing up a regulation that would soften the impact of a harsh new hydrocarbons law that raised taxes and royalties for private-sector oil companies.
Borja and Apolo also clashed over plans to remove import tariffs on some products imported from Ecuador's neighbors to offset the impact of losing preferred trade status with the U.S., which expires at the end of this year. According to Borja, Apolo wanted to eliminated import duties on more than 1,000 products, which would have harmed the government's tax revenue; the final figure was brought down to 500 products.
Speaking Friday after the appointment of the new economy and trade ministers, Armando Rodas and Roberto Illingworth, the government's spokesman, Enrique Proano, said more changes may be announced by Tuesday.
The president wanted to overhaul his cabinet as he winds up for the final six months of his presidency. Palacio took office in April 2005 following the ouster of President Lucio Gutierrez; Ecuadoreans will elect a new president in October, and the winner will take office in January.
Ecuador July 7 Liquid Reserves Down 1% On Week At $2.232 Billion
07-10-06 12:09 PM EST
QUITO -(Dow Jones)- Ecuador's liquid international reserves stood at $2.232 billion as of July 7, down 1% from $2.264 billion a week earlier, the central bank said Monday in its weekly statistics.
The Central Bank didn't give further details.
The latest liquid international reserves were up 25% from $1.788 billion registered for July 2005.
Revenues from the most important levy, the value-added tax, totaled $214.9 million, up 21.7 percent from June of last year.
No explanation was given for the increase, but in the past, higher revenues have been attributed to growth in the economy.
The government has targeted tax revenues of $4.08 billion for all of 2006 compared with $3.92 billion collected in 2005.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
Wenn das mal nicht richtig war!
über pari Ecu Anleihen zu verkloppen war noch nie verkehrt,
obwohl uns das Bondboard immer wieder suggerieren will, das
Ecu Anleihen etwas fuer Rentner sind.
Ich denke jedoch, das im Vergleich zu einer Belize Anleihe
wo bereits eine Umschuldung angekuendigt wurde,
eine ECu 30 unter 90 % die interessantere Alternative ist.
du diese Kurse bald sehen .. wobei der Typ für mich derselbe Schaumschläger ist wie Morales in Bolivien ... auch denke ich mal dass
die USA auf eine erneute Umschuldung nicht gerade freundlich reagieren werden zumal der Dollar in ECU die Landeswährung ist ...
Ich denke nicht, dass sich die Ami-Banken eine erneute Umschuldung gefallen lassen werden und Chavez in Venezuela wird bei sinkenden Ölpreisen wohl auch wieder langsam das Geld ausgehen und er kann somit
keinen weiteren Einfluss auf die Länder in Südamerika nehmen ...
Nach Correas Wahlsieg gibt es wohl sehr tiefe Kurse zum reingehen ...
und eine Umschuldung wird m.E. nicht stattfinden .....aber definitiv keine Anleihe für Retner oder Hasenfüsse
Den Mutigen gehört die Welt
Soviel Glueck hat man nur einmal. Wer weiss wie der zweite Wahlgang endet.
hat schon jemand Zinsen vom 15.11.06 gutgeschrieben bekommen?
Inoffiziellen Hochrechnungen zufolge kam der 43-Jährige auf etwa 56,40 Prozent der Stimmen. Sein Gegenspieler, der konservative Bananenmagnat Alvaro Noboa, der Sieger der ersten Runde am 15. Oktober war, erzielte demnach 43,60 Prozent und scheiterte schon zum dritten Mal in einer Stichwahl. Diese Angaben beruhten auf einer Parallelauszählung von 89,50 Prozent der Stimmzettel.
Noboa weigerte sich jedoch, seine Niederlage schon einzugestehen. Er werde nur das offizielle Endergebnis der Zentralen Wahlkommission akzeptieren, mit dem erst am Dienstag gerechnet wurde. Anhänger Correas feierten den erwarteten Sieg ihres Kandidaten jedoch schon landesweit mit Hupkonzerten und spontanen Straßenfesten.
Correa will die heimische Wirtschaft ankurbeln, die Last der Auslandsschulden durch Verhandlungen und notfalls durch ein Moratorium mindern und das fast fertige Freihandelsabkommen mit Washington auf Eis legen. Außerdem kündigte er an, sofort nach seinem Amtsantritt im Januar eine verfassungsgebende Versammlung einzuberufen. Im Parlament ist seine Partei "Alianza País" nicht vertreten, weil Correa aus Protest gegen das Einkammerparlament keine Kandidaten aufgestellt hatte.
Ecuador, das vor allem vom Erdölexport lebt, war in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten von großer politischer Instabilität geprägt. Die letzten drei Präsidenten wurden gestürzt. Ihre Stellvertreter mussten die vierjährige Amtszeit zu Ende führen. So auch der derzeitige Staatschef Alfredo Palacio, der sein Amt im Januar kommenden Jahres voraussichtlich an Correa übergibt. dpa
Die Situation in Ecuador scheint mir dagegen vollkommen entgegengesetzt. Correa ist eher ein unkontrollierter Heißsporn, der wohl populistisch agieren wird (natürlich mit entsprechender Korruption) bei weniger orthodoxer Wirtschaftspolitik. Viel schlimmer aber finde ich noch die Geistesbruderschaft mit den Südamerikanischen Scharfmachern Chavez (und eingeschränkt) Kirchner. Da braut sich eine Brühe zusammen, bei der ich -insbesondere bei aktuellen Kursen- weiterhin nicht dabei sein muss.
von 8% und mehr ....
QUITO, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Ecuador on Tuesday doubled welfare payments to more than a million of the country's neediest and said it would seek advice on restructuring debt from Argentina.
The moves form part of the "citizens' revolution" launched by leftist President Rafael Correa, who took office on Monday, joining a growing club of leftist leaders in Latin America.
Correa, a U.S.-educated economics professor, has already scared investors with his pledges to renegotiate debt, rework oil contracts and end the lease of a military base used by U.S. troops.
He told a news conference he was raising the monthly payments to more than a million of the poor Andean state's most vulnerable, such as the sick and single mothers, to $30 from $15. Ecuador's population is 13 million.
Earlier, Economy Minister Ricardo Patino said Ecuador would further investigate debt restructuring with experts from Argentina, which declared modern history's largest sovereign debt default during the financial meltdown of 2001-2002.
"Next week the commission that renegotiated Argentina's external debt will come to hold talks and work out themes in debt legislation," he said in a television interview.
Argentina restructured some $100 billion of its debt, exchanging defaulted bonds for others, persuading creditors to accept far lower nominal values and longer maturities.
Correa made reducing his country's debt payments a linchpin of his electoral campaign. On Monday he said he would renegotiate "firmly," labeling some debt as corrupt and calling for international arbitration on it.
He has already publicly praised the Argentine model and has not discounted it for Ecuador, which has about $10 billion in foreign debt.
Patino said there was no time frame for starting negotiations with bondholders but they would take place at the "appropriate time."
Ecuador, Calling Debt `Illegitimate,' May Repay 40% (Update7)
By Lester Pimentel
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador's economy minister told a group of investors who visited his office yesterday that the government may repay only 40 percent of its foreign debt as part of an effort to free up funds for health care and education.
Ricardo Patino, who took office with President Rafael Correa on Jan. 15, told the investors that a debt reduction of that much or more is among the possibilities the government is considering, an Economy Ministry spokeswoman said.
``The minister discussed different scenarios, but nothing was finalized,'' spokeswoman Julia Ortega said in a telephone interview from Quito.
Patino's debt reduction estimate is the first indication the South American country has given on the amount of money it's looking to shave off its debt servicing. Correa has been saying for months that he planned a restructuring of the country's $11 billion foreign debt, without providing specifics.
Ecuador's 10 percent dollar bonds due in 2030, the government's benchmark foreign securities, tumbled today, driving the yield up 110 basis points, or 1.1 percentage points, to 14.32 percent.
The bond's price, which moves inversely to the yield, sank 6 cents on the dollar to a two-year low of 72 cents at 6 p.m. in New York, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The price has plunged 25 cents since Correa, a 43-year-old economist, won election on Nov. 26.
`Willingness to Pay'
``At this point, one has to assume that there will be some sort of default,'' said Adam Weiner, who manages emerging-market debt at New York-based OppenheimerFunds Inc., which has $250 billion under management. ``This is a willingness to pay issue, not an ability to pay issue.''
The average yield spread on Ecuadorean bonds over similar- maturity U.S. Treasuries widened 1.08 percentage points to 9.05 percentage points today, according to JPMorgan data.
Patino, 52, told the investors that much of the debt is ``illegitimate'' and ``a burden on Ecuador that inhibits growth'' and takes away from social spending, according to Citigroup Inc., which arranged the meeting in Quito.
``He argued that for the first time in many years investors will be dealing with a finance minister determined to defend and prioritize social spending over external or domestic debt servicing,'' Citigroup analysts Don Hanna and Jose Wynne wrote in a report to clients.
Brooke Berard, a spokeswoman at Citigroup, declined to comment. Calls to Hanna, Citigroup's head of emerging-market strategy, and to Wynne, an economist, were referred to the bank's media relations office.
Correa, who has threatened to sever ties with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, said in his inaugural address on Jan. 15 that he believes much of the country's debt is illegitimate because it was contracted by military regimes.
Ecuador, South America's fifth-largest oil producer, last defaulted amid an economic recession in 1999. The government's benchmark 10 percent dollar bonds were issued in a restructuring of that defaulted debt in 2000.
Moody's Investors Service rates Ecuador's debt Caa1 and Standard & Poor's rates the country CCC+, seven levels below investment grade. Moody's last week lowered the rating outlook to stable from positive.
Bond prices, while falling, don't reflect a high probability that Correa -- who counts Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez among his closest allies -- will make good on his default threats. That's in part because last year's surge in oil prices drove up Ecuador's exports, fueled faster economic growth and gave the government a budget surplus.
The $33 billion economy grew an estimated 4.7 percent in 2006 after expanding 3.9 percent the previous year, according to the central bank. No country in such a strong financial position has defaulted in the past two centuries, according to Jeffrey Kaufman, an emerging-market fund manager at Putnam Investments in Boston who helps manage $2 billion.
``It could be quite historic if they decided to default,'' OppenheimerFunds' Weiner said. He said he doesn't hold any of the country's bonds.
Correa will get to show next month how serious he is about defaulting: The government has an interest payment to make on the 10 percent dollar bonds on Feb. 15.
neuen Argi und Buenos Aires Anleihen an), aber das funktioniert nur
in Zeiten wo die Zinsen sehr sehr niedrig sind.Die Argis waren damals
wirklich pleite (diese Pleite war aber nicht Kirchners Schuld), nur das Umtauschangebot war eine Quasi-Enteignung und eine Frechheit,
aber immerhin war Argi ein wirtschaftlicher Default.
Was nun aber die Ecuadorianer versuchen, ist die Fechheit im Quadrat,
da dieser Staat DEFINITIV nicht zahlungsunfähig ist sondern lediglich
zahlungsunwillig (also ein politischer Default).
Ich persönlich denke selbst in mageren Zinszeiten ist es das Risiko
nicht mehr wert, wegen 7 - 12 % möglicher Rendite vielleicht 50 oder
60% des eingesetzten Kapitals zu verlieren.
Aktien haben natürlich auch Risiko aber es gibt auch Aktien mit hoher
Dividendenrendite wie z.B. Nordic American Tanker Shipping 11,78%, American Capital 7,76% , MCG Capital 8,85%, AFRICAN BANK INVESTMENTS LTD. 7,85%, GREAT SOUTHERN PLANTATIONS 5,26%, THORNBURG MORTGAGE INC.
8,86% und NovaStar Financial Inc. 22,29% (alle Angaben von Comdirect)
und diese Werte zahlen auch Dividende (für die Zukunft übernehme ich selbstverständlich KEINE Haftung , das sollte klar sein).
Also da vertraue ich lieber einem westlichen Unternehmen als
Banditen in Südamerika (tja der gute GW Bush hat über den Irak seinen Hinterhof vergessen, der früher den USA einmal heillig war).
War früher einmal ein Anleihenfan, aber das Risiko ist es derzeit einfach nicht mehr wert
der 30 jaehrige ECU Bond hat doch noch eine Sonderbestimmung, das
im Defaultfall man 10 % mehr neue Anleihen bekommt wie alle anderen Bondgläubiger.
Ich gebe zu das dies eine ziemlich idiotischer Bestimung ist, da dann einfach das Umschuldungsangebot entsprechend angepasst wird.
Zumindest muesste deshalb die 526864 etwas höher wie die 526865
Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Es handelt sich hier um einen ältere Diskussionen, daher ist das Schreiben in dieser Diskussion nicht mehr möglich. Bitte eröffnen Sie hier ein neue Diskussion.