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Ecuador Anleihen - 500 Beiträge pro Seite


Die beiden Ecuador Staatsanleihen die in Deutschland gehandelt werden gingen aus dem nach dem Default im Jahr 1999 durchgeführten Schuldentausch hervor. Die betroffenen Anleihen waren:

--$1,655,395,000 Collateralized Par Bonds due 2025
--$1,434,671,000 Collateralized Discount Bonds due 2025
--$2,308,344,000 Past Due Interest Bonds due 2016
--$190,744,000 IE Bonds due 2004
--$350,000,000 11.25% Fixed Rate Eurobonds due 2002
--$150,000,000 Floating Rate Eurobonds due 2004

Daraus hervor gingen nach einem Haircut von 40% die beiden US$ Anleihen ECU12 (526865) und die ECU30 (526864).

Ecuador hat der Dollar als Währung adoptiert ("Dollarisierung" ) und damit bisher wohl ganz gute Erfahrungen gemacht. Die Inflation wurde rapide heruntergefahren (klar beim Dollar) und da Ecuador hauptsächlich Commodities Öl, Agrarprodukte mit Weltmarktpreisen in US$ exportiert entstehen auch keine Nachteile im Verhältnis zu Ländern mit freifloatenden Währungen. Ab 2003 soll die Erdölförderung durch den Bau einer 2. grossen Pipeline deutlich ausgebaut werden, sodass hier eine gewisse Sicherheit in dauerhafter Schuldenbedienungsfähigkeit gegeben sein sollte (Ecuador ist ansonsten ein relativ armes Land).

Die Privatisierungen gehen ein wenig zäh vorran, aber immerhin es passiert was in dieser Hinsicht. Die Lage im Bankensektor ist noch nicht bereinigt, u.a. muss noch eine vom Staat im Rahmen der Bankenkrise übernommene Bank in Form ihrer verbliebenen Assets "verteilt" werden.

Ecuador hat sich bisher als notorischer IWF Programm Nichteinhalter gezeigt. Seit gut einem Jahr scheint das aber besser geworden zu sein. Kürzlich gab es sogar eine überfällige Zahlung an die Paris Club Länder (Vorbedingung für ein neues IWF Programm).

Daten zu Ecuador http://www.imf.org/external/country/ECU/index.htm
http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/tad/exfin2.cfm?memberKey1…

Die beiden Anleihen werden in Berlin gehandelt:

526865 Ecuador 12
==============
Kurs ca. 72
Zinsen: 12%, Zahlung halbjährlich (15.5./15.11.)
Fälligkeit 15.11.2012
1,25 Mrd US$
Tilgung in jährlichen Raten von 10% ab 2006 bis November 2011

und

526864 Ecuador 30
==============
Kurs ca. 45
Zinsen: Step-up
08/01 bis 08/02 5.00%; 08/02 bis 08/03 6.00%; 08/03 bis 08/04 7.00%; 08/04 bis 08/05 8.00%; 08/05 bis 08/06 9.00%; 08/06 bis Endfälligkeit 10.00%, Zahlung halbjährlich (15.2./15.8.)
Fälligkeit 15.8.2030
2,5 Mrd US$
Tilgung in jährlichen Raten von 3% ab 08/2013 bis November 08/2029





Ich habe die Anleihen seit ca. 4 Monaten und bin mit der Entwicklung ganz zufrieden. Insbesondere die ECU12 zeichnet sich durch eine hohe laufende Verzinsung aus (20% als ich gekauft habe, jetzt um die 16-17%), sodass die Wertentwicklung besser ist als im Chart zu sehen (der berücksichtigt die Zinszahlungen natürlich nicht).

Dass diese Ecuador Anleihen riskant sind (und die auch schon mal Zahlungsausfälle in der Vergangenheit hatten s.o.) muss ich wohl nicht extra dazusagen oder ?

Grüße K1
Ecuador will pay Paris Club to seal IMF accord-official

QUITO, Ecuador, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Ecuador will pay the $60 million it owes to the Paris Club of creditor nations this week to smooth the path for a final disbursement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a Finance Ministry official said on Wednesday.

The IMF is slated to meet Dec. 10 to evaluate Ecuador`s economic program and authorize two final disbursements for a total of $96 million, which would complete the Andean nation`s April 2000 program. Ecuador`s government agreed to get up-to-date on Paris Club debt obligations before this meeting.

"Definitely, we are going to comply and that is our objective (), so that we can go to the IMF meeting on December 10 with all these issues completed, prepared, so the third and fourth disbursements can be approved," Economy Undersecretary Julio Ponce told reporters.

"We are working on it and by the weekend we will make the payments," he said. Ecuador must make the $60 million Paris Club payments to complete its $300 million IMF accord.

Quito has already completed two other IMF requirements by sending to Congress a bill to set up an oil-stabilization fund with future crude revenues, and a bill to capitalize state-held Banco del Pacifico.

Ecuador, which adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in April 2000 amid economic and political turbulence, has failed to complete seven of its last eight IMF agreements.
Vorsicht mit Ecuador Anleihen und allem was mit Ecuador zu tun hat. Der hohe Zins drueckt lediglich das hohe Risiko aus. Ecuador ist innenpolitisch noch lange nicht stabil, und spaetestens bei der naechsten Wahl (in ca 3 Jahren glaube ich) sind wieder PSE Leute am Ruder. Ich weiss wovon ich rede, ich habe einige Jahre dort gelebt und gearbeitet.

Nur Geld anlegen dass man auch ggf. abschreiben kann.

Viel Glueck

Norbi
"Nur Geld anlegen dass man auch ggf. abschreiben kann. "

Das versteht sich bei ’CCC’gerateten Anleihen eigentlich von selbst, kann man aber trotzdem wohl nicht oft genug sagen.

Interessehalber: Wann hast du denn in Ecuador gelebt ?

Meines Wissens nach sind die nächsten Wahlen 2002 (Präsident/Parlament). Hast du eine Quelle für deine Vermutung in 3 Jahren ?

Grüße K1
K1,

1997-2000 in Ecuador. In dieser Zeit 4 amtierende Praesidenten, Totaler Zusammenbruch des Finanzwesens, Korruption in allen Bereichen, Generalstreiks, Putschversuche, Kapitalflucht...

Ich koennte ein Buch darueber schreiben.

Die Dollarización fuehrte zu einer sagenhaften Inflation in US$, die Kaufkraft der Menschen tendiert praktisch gegen null.. (natuerlich von der 5%igen Oberschicht abgesehen).

Quelle: Lebe zur Zeit in Peru, also Nachbarland, und lese halt Zeitung oder sehe fern...

Viele Gruesse

Norbi
@Norbi2

als Käufer einer Anleihe interssiert mich: Können auf absehbare Zeit Zinsen und Tilgung geleistet werden. Aus der jetzigen Sicht halte ich das für Ecuador für eher wahrscheinlich.

In der Zeit 1997-2000 hätte ich sicher keine Ecu Anleihe gekauft, nur seitdem hat sich doch einiges verändert.

Die Dollarización fuehrte zu einer sagenhaften Inflation in US$,

Also die vorherige Währung (Sucre) war ja nun von heftiger Schwindsucht geprägt. Alleine von 1998 auf 1999 hat sie rund 2/3 ihres Wertes verloren. Den Zahlen von IWF/Ecuador kann ich seit der Dollarisation nur Bruchteile der damaligen Inflation entnehmen (auch in US$). Man kann sich ja sicher über 10, 20% Differenz streiten, nur dass die Zahlen von IWF/Ecuador mehrere 100% von der Realität abweichen, dafür hätte ich dann gerne doch ein Paar Beispiele.

Hast du deine Angabe zu den Wahlen nochmals überprüft ?

Von der Dresdner Bank Lateinamerika gibt es übrigens einen schon etwas älteren Länderreport, an dem man an Hand der jetzigen Entwicklung erkennen kann, dass die effiktive Entwicklung Ecuadors teilweise sogar besser war/ist als die Erwartungen.

http://www.dbla.de/_meta/_pub_download/_publikationen/perspe…

Grüße K1
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG UND AUSBLICK ECUADOR
======================================

Wirtschaftspolitik: Das Ringen um die Gunst des IWF

Mit dem Gerichtsurteil, das die Mehrwertsteuererhöhung von 12 % auf
14 %, Kernstück einer Steuerreform, für verfassungswidrig erklärte, hat
die Regierung einen monatelangen Nervenkrieg verloren. Dies stellte
erneut das IWF-Beistandsprogramm in Frage, dessen Fortsetzung der
Fonds von der Umsetzung der Steuerreform abhängig gemacht hatte.
Aber Ecuador konnte den IWF überzeugen: der Staatshaushalt dürfte
trotz des Debakels um die Mehrwertsteuer auch in diesem Jahr einen
Überschuss aufweisen, denn die Staatseinnahmen entwickeln sich,
unter anderem infolge des hohen BIP-Wachstums, überraschend gut.
Doch das Ringen um die Gunst des IWF setzt sich fort. Um weitere
Mittel - und damit auch dringend benötigte Kredite anderer multilatera-
ler Gläubiger - zu erhalten, muss Ecuador unter anderem den Banco
del Pacífico stärken, der in einem Jahr reprivatisiert werden soll, und
überfällige Schuldendienstzahlungen an den Pariser Club leisten.
(Anmerkung K1 Zahlun an Pais C. ist mittlerweile erfolgt, s.Post#2). Wir
gehen von der Fortsetzung der IWF-Hilfe aus, wobei es in Ecuador bei
der Schaffung der Voraussetzungen jedoch zu weiteren Verzögerun-
gen kommen kann. Allen Problemen zum Trotz gibt es aber auch einen
wichtigen strukturpolitischen Fortschritt: Anfang November billigte der
Kongress die Zulassung privater Pensionsfonds.

Konjunktur: Pipelinebau treibtWachstum

Das Wirtschaftswachstum wird in diesem Jahr deutlich höher ausfal-
len als bisher erwartet. Hauptwachstumsmotor ist der Bau der OCP-
Erdölpipeline, der gut zwei Jahre andauern soll und ein Investitionsvo-
lumen von über 1 Mrd. US$ umfasst. Im ersten Halbjahr stieg das BIP im
Vorjahresvergleich um 7,3 %. Wir rechnen 2001 und 2002 mit Zuwäch-
sen von 6 % bzw. 3,5 %. Aber zu bedenken bleibt, dass Ecuadors Wirt-
schaft, die vor drei Jahren in eine schwere Krise geraten war, in diesem
Jahr damit nur wieder ungefähr das Niveau des Jahres 1998 erreicht.

Zahlungsbilanz: Leistungsbilanz fällt ins Defizit

Die Außenwirtschaftsbilanzen verschlechtern sich. Die Erdölexporte
dürften 2001 infolge der niedrigeren Preise um ca. 0,5 Mrd. auf unter
2 Mrd. US$ fallen, die Importe aufgrund der Einfuhren im Zusammen-
hang mit dem Bau der Ölpipeline stark steigen. Wir rechnen im Gesamt-
jahr 2001 mit einem Leistungsbilanzdefizit von ca. 0,7 Mrd. US$; 2002
dürfte es sich, durch einen preisbedingten weiteren Rückgang des
Ölexports und zunehmende Importe, noch ausweiten. Obwohl die Aus-
landsinvestitionen im Zuge des Pipelinebaus 2001 merklich zu steigen
begannen, bleibt Ecuador, um die ohnehin niedrigen Devisenreserven
(Importdeckung nur gut 1 Monat) zu halten, auf multilaterale Kredite
angewiesen.

Luz Knees 040 3595 3488

Quelle: Dresdner Bank Lateinamerika Perspektiven 12/2001

http://www.dbla.de/_meta/_pub_download/_publikationen/perspe…
Ecuador tax receipts up 13.8 pct in Nov on year

QUITO, Ecuador, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s tax receipts rose 13.8 percent in November 2001 versus the same month a year ago, the country`s Internal Revenue Service said in a report on Monday.

Net tax collection, which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits, reached $186.75 million in November 2001 compared with $164.16 million in November 2000, the report said.

Between January and November 2001, Ecuador took in $2.13 billion in taxes, the report said.

In November 2001, the country`s main tax -- Value Added Tax -- reeled in $131.41 million, versus $97.73 million in the same month of 2000.
Ecuador president says won`t run in `02 elections

QUITO, Ecuador, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s President Gustavo Noboa, who assumed power after a 2000 military coup, said on Wednesday he will not seek election in October 2002.

"I am not going to be a presidential candidate," Noboa said briefly in a television interview on Teleamazonas network.

Noboa, a 64-year old professor from Guayaquil, was catapulted to power from the vice-presidency after his predecessor Jamil Mahuad was ousted in a January 2000 Indian uprising backed by military officers.

It is still unclear who the presidential candidates will be in the October 2002 election. The Electoral Tribunal has warned that campaigning is not permitted until 45 days before the vote.

Banana exporter Alvaro Noboa and ex coup leader Lucio Gutierrez have collected signatures in an effort to form two new political parties that would back their candidacies.

The Electoral Tribunal said in a statement the signatures are still under review.
Ecuador may seek IMF accord for more than $300 mln

QUITO, Ecuador, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Ecuador may seek a stand-by agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for more than an estimated $300 million to minimize the impact of low oil prices, a Finance Ministry official, who declined to be named, said on Thursday.

The Andean nation plans to negotiate a new stand-by agreement with the fund in January after it successfully completed its agreement with the IMF this year, its first since 1986.

Ecuador`s government originally said it would seek a $300 million pact, but given the decline in the global economy and world oil prices a Finance Ministry official said it might seek more.

"We consider that the IMF may be able to lend something more next year," the high-ranking official told Reuters on the condition of anonymity.

The official said that there is room to negotiate an amount since Ecuador`s most recent $300 million accord is equivalent to only 75 percent of the country`s quota in the IMF.

Wall Street analysts consider a 2002 accord is vital for Ecuador to sustain the faith of investors and access the multilateral disbursements it needs to make payments on its foreign debt.

But President Gustavo Noboa may have a tough time getting important fiscal reforms pushed through Congress, where he has little support, as the country prepares for October 2002 elections, analysts say.
Still und heimlich schleichen sich die Kurse nach oben. Ein wichtiges Problem bleibt aber die zu optimistische Vorhersage für den Ölpreis mit 19$ für die Ecuadorianische Mischung (=23). Realistischer wäre wohl eher 16$. Hier soll (und m.E. muss) nach Q1/2002 eine Überprüfung und Anpassung der Haushaltsposten erfolgen.

Grüße K1
*ECUADOR FOREIGN PUBLIC DEBT FALLS 0.37 PCT TO $11.186 BLN NOV VS
OCT-CENBANK

QUITO, Ecuador, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s public foreign debt fell 0.37 percent to $11.186 billion in November 2001 compared with the month before, the Central Bank (BCE) said on Tuesday.

This Andean nation`s public foreign debt was equivalent to 62 percent of gross domestic product in November 2001, according to the BCE`s Web site.

Ecuador restructured its Brady and Eurobond debt in 2000 to reduce it by 40.6 percent, after it defaulted on its bond payments in 1999.
Ecuador`s Noboa vows to push economy in final year
January 15, 2002 09:24 PM ET

By Amy Taxin

QUITO, Ecuador, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s President Gustavo Noboa vowed on Tuesday to promote economic growth and crack down on corruption in his final year in office, despite a lack of support in Congress.

Noboa, in his annual state of the nation address, said he would push for more private investment in oil, electricity and telecommunications, adding that industry needed to become more competitive amid a world economic slowdown that cut Ecuador`s exports by 9.5 percent last year.

Many left-wing social organizations challenge Noboa`s privatization plans, saying it is selling the people`s wealth, and earlier on Tuesday about 150 students protested outside the presidential palace against Noboa`s economic policies.

"My government will continue to send the bills needed to Congress to create a positive investment environment, and ask the courts to quickly and efficiently take the necessary actions to overcome a lack of legal securities," Noboa said.

He urged Congress to move more quickly on a bill to create an oil stabilization fund to sustain the budget in times of low commodity prices, with new crude revenues from a $1.1 billion pipeline under construction.

The key bill may form part of a new agreement that Ecuador -- which posted Latin America`s highest growth rate in 2001 at 5.4 percent -- is seeking with the International Monetary Fund to access $300 million in credit and sustain investors` confidence.

He said foreign investment jumped 55 percent last year to $1.3 billion as a result of new-found confidence, mostly attached to the new pipeline project.

But Noboa, a 64-year-old university professor who became president after a 2000 coup, faces a difficult political year with the country gearing up for national elections in October and a lack of support in Congress.

Noboa, who has said he will not run again for president, appealed to Congress to support his legislative agenda.

"Let`s prove wrong those paradigms that make people think an election year is a lost year," he said in a speech to Congress, while pledging to work through the last day of his administration, which ends on Jan. 15, 2003.

"We need renewed political leadership, that will push the country toward a new fate," he added.

Noboa also urged judges to crack down on corruption and pursue trial for those accused. Ecuadoreans want a hard line taken against corruption, especially after the banking system collapsed between 1998 and 2000 due in part to mismanagement.

Noboa lauded Ecuador`s progress toward achieving sustained economic growth and controlling inflation since it adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in 2000.

Tax collection rose 56 percent in 2001, and bank deposits rose 51.6 percent, he said, in a sign of blossoming faith in the financial sector and improving personal income.
Ecuador January Tax Revenue Soars 44% as Holiday Buying Soared
By Rachel Dex

Quito, Ecuador, Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s tax revenue soared 44 percent in January from the same month last year, beating government targets as holiday buying boosted receipts from the country`s value-added tax.

Net tax collection jumped to $234.1 million in January from $162.9 million last year, the tax authority said. The January tax collection was 21 percent above the government target for the month.

``It should help compensate for the lower oil price and boost the government`s liquidity, however it`s not a promise that the rest of the year will be at the same pace,`` said Gustavo Arteta an analyst at Quito based economic think tank Cordes.

Better-than-expected tax collection will help offset the lower than projected crude oil price of around $15.80 per barrel in January compared to the budget forecast of $19 a barrel. Taxes are the principal source of income for the $5.6 billion budget for 2002 and are expected to generate $2.57 billion in revenue, or 14 percent more than last year.

Value-added tax revenue rose 62 percent to $161.6 million from $99.9 million in the year-ago period, due to Christmas buying. Taxes for much of December are only collected in January. Income tax collection rose 15.5 percent to $44.7 million from $38.7 million last January.

According to the Central Bank the Andean nation`s $17.8 billion economy expanded 5.4 percent last year.
Der Dollar löst Ecuadors Probleme nicht

C. H. Quito, im Februar

In Ecuador will man über die Dollarisierung eigentlich gar nicht mehr diskutieren. Wirtschaftskreise und die Mehrheit der Politiker sehen in der Ablösung der schwachen Landeswährung durch den US-Dollar Anfang des Jahres 2000 auch im Nachhinein den einzigen Weg aus der schweren Krise, die sich damals gefährlich zugespitzt hatte. Und auch die Bevölkerung hat sich längst an den Greenback gewöhnt und würde ihn nicht mehr gegen den inflationsgeschüttelten Sucre eintauschen wollen.

Noch nicht abgeschlossenes Experiment

Die Entwicklung in den letzten zwei Jahren scheint diesen Stimmen Recht zu geben: Die politische Situation hat sich stabilisiert, und die Wirtschaft verzeichnet Wachstum bei mässiger Inflation. Ist das Experiment also geglückt in dem kleinen, armen Anden-Staat, der mit dem Schritt zur Dollarisierung eine bis anhin theoretisch diskutierte Idee in die Praxis umsetzte und damit grosses Aufsehen erregte?

Ende 1999 steckte das Land in seiner bis dato schwersten politischen und wirtschaftlichen Krise. Ob nun durch eigene Misswirtschaft oder durch externe Schocks verursacht, Ecuador stand vor einer Reihe grosser Probleme. Das Bankensystem war marode, die Finanzpolitik hatte einen hohen Schuldenberg aufgetürmt, und die Geldpolitik bestand im Wesentlichen darin, die Notenpresse auf vollen Touren laufen zu lassen. Zum Ende des Jahres 1999 erreichte die Jahresteuerung 61%, das Bruttoinlandprodukt (BIP) fiel um 7,3% zurück, und der Sucre war gegenüber dem Dollar regelrecht abgestürzt. Die Arbeitslosenquote stieg auf 18%; Tausende von Ecuadorianern zogen ins Ausland.

Die einzige Möglichkeit, das Land aus dem Schlamassel zu führen - und natürlich sich selbst an der Macht zu halten -, sah Präsident Mahuad in dem drastischen Schritt der Dollarisierung. Trotz diesem vornehmlich opportunistisch-politisch motivierten und eher spontanen als von langer Hand vorbereiteten Schritt wird er heute als der einzig mögliche und damit zwangsweise als der richtige eingestuft. Einen alternativen Weg - etwa die Einführung einer neuen Währung wie in Brasilien und einen sich daran anschliessenden, schmerzlichen Prozess, um die Währung als vertrauenswürdig zu etablieren - hätte das geschwächte Ecuador wohl kaum bewältigen können.

Unfähigkeitserklärung der Politik

Auch wenn die Dollarisierung schliesslich nichts anderes war als eine Unfähigkeitserklärung der Politiker, brachte sie doch einen Bruch mit der Vergangenheit und damit überhaupt erst die Chance auf einen Neuanfang. Der Dollar verlieh dem Land ein gewisses Mass an Vertrauenswürdigkeit - seitens der eigenen Bevölkerung und, wenn auch in geringerem Ausmass, seitens ausländischer Beobachter. Und dass im Nachgang der Einführung des Greenback der Staat eines seiner wichtigsten Instrumente - die Geldpolitik - abgeben musste, dürfte eher ein Gewinn als ein Verlust gewesen sein.

Ecuador hatte sich mit der Dollarisierung also eine kleine Verschnaufpause verschafft und einen noch tieferen Absturz verhindern können. Ein generell mit dieser Art der Währungsreform verbundenes Ziel - die Senkung der Inflation - scheint man nun zu erreichen. Nachdem die Jahresteuerung 2000 durch den Anpassungsschock auf 96% hochgetrieben worden war, lag sie 2001 bei durchschnittlich 40,3%; die Jahresend-Rate hingegen sank auf 22,4%, und für 2002 wird mit etwa 9% gerechnet. Eine weitere Hoffnung, die mit dem Wechsel zum Dollar allgemein verbunden ist, nämlich ein Sinken des Zinsniveaus - und ein sich stärkender Finanzsektor mit funktionierenden Märkten -, scheint sich ebenfalls, wenn auch langsam, zu erfüllen. Die Zinsen für Kredite, soweit überhaupt Darlehen vergeben werden, liegen zwar selten unter 16%. Das liegt jedoch vor allem am hohen Spread; diese Differenz zwischen den Zinsen, die die Bank zahlen muss, und denen, die sie von den Kreditnehmern erhebt, lässt sich zum einen mit dem Risikozuschlag erklären, zum andern mit der ungenügenden Effizienz der Banken. Das durch die Dollarisierung in Gang gesetzte Zurückgleiten des Zinsniveaus muss nun mittels weiterer Reformen des Sektors fortgesetzt werden.

Eingeschränktes Instrumentarium

Immerhin aber haben sich die Rahmenbedingungen wieder so weit stabilisiert, dass das BIP im vergangenen Jahr um 5,4% zulegen konnte. Neben dem Erdöl, das etwa 2 Wachstumspunkte beigesteuert haben dürfte, haben vor allem die Konsumenten mit dem Kauf langlebiger Konsumgüter und mit Investitionen in Immobilien die Wirtschaft wieder auf Trab gebracht. Diese Ausgaben sind Zeichen einer erstarkenden Kaufkraft von Bevölkerungsschichten, die unter der Rezession besonders gelitten hatten, wie die mittlerweile stark dezimierte Mittelschicht und die von 33% (1995) auf 44% (1999) der Gesamtbevölkerung gewachsene arme Unterschicht, die von höchstens 2 $ pro Tag - dafür gibt es z. B. zwei Büchsen mit Erfrischungsgetränken - lebt.

Doch die mit der Dollarisierung erreichte Verschnaufpause könnte das Land auf lange Sicht mit einem sehr hohen Preis bezahlen. Mit dem Wegfall des Instruments der Geld- und Währungspolitik muss der Staat seine Arbeit mit nur noch zwei Werkzeugen - der Fiskal- und der Strukturpolitik - bewältigen. Das eingeschränkte Instrumentarium muss nun zunächst einmal einsatzfähig gemacht werden. Diesen Herausforderungen würde sich wohl fast jeder Staat stellen müssen, der sich in einer Notsituation für die Dollarisierung entscheidet. Im Falle von Ecuador kommt aber noch ein erschwerender Faktor hinzu: Auf Grund seiner geringen Grösse (BIP von 18 Mrd. $ im Jahr 2001; 13 Mio. Einwohner), seiner vor allem von den Weltmarktpreisen abhängigen Exporte von Rohwaren und seiner hohen Verschuldung läuft der Anden-Staat Gefahr, von möglichen externen Schocks kräftig erschüttert zu werden. Ihnen wird das Land in Zukunft aber nur noch mit einem eingeschränkten Instrumentarium entgegentreten können. Neben der grundlegenden Stabilisierung des Landes mittels eines strengen Managements der Finanzen, der Stärkung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Unternehmen und des Abschlusses der Sanierung im Bankensektor ist deshalb der Aufbau verschiedener Puffer, also die Errichtung von externe Schocks abfedernden Mechanismen (z. B. Stabilitätsfonds), unumgänglich.

Gestiegenes Problembewusstsein

Auch wenn beim Entscheid für die Dollarisierung die damalige Regierung wohl kaum an die sich damit ergebenden Herausforderungen gedacht hat, ist man sich in der jetzigen Regierung der Lage durchaus bewusst und hat sich an die Arbeit gemacht; allein schon das gestiegene Problembewusstsein wird von Beobachtern als grosses Verdienst der Dollarisierung betrachtet. Die angeschlagenen privaten Banken wurden zum Teil bereits vom Staat übernommen und entweder saniert, geschlossen oder zum Verkauf angeboten. Die Sanierung dürfte mindestens 3 Mrd. $ gekostet haben. Die Banken selbst sind intern noch im Prozess der Neuorientierung; hatten sie zum Teil jahrelang gut von der Inflation leben können und mit Devisenspekulationen verdient, müssen viele nun das eigentliche Bankengeschäft aufbauen bzw. effizient betreiben lernen. Der Wegfall der Zentralbank als «lender of last resort» erfordert überdies ein strengeres Regelwerk.

In der Finanzpolitik konnten bereits einige Fortschritte erzielt werden. So hat man die Mehrwertsteuer-Einnahmen dank einer effizienteren Erhebung auf 29% des rund 5 Mrd. $ umfassenden Haushaltes erhöhen und damit die Erdöleinnahmen leicht übertrumpfen können. Ein demnächst dem Parlament zur Abstimmung vorzulegendes, als wichtiger Baustein im Reformprozess geltendes Gesetz soll langfristig den Rahmen für eine seriöse Finanzpolitik abgeben. Des Weiteren will man für die Zeit vorsorgen, da die Erdöleinnahmen (2001 rund 28% des Haushaltes) nicht mehr so reichlich sprudeln - sei es wegen eines Endes der Funde oder eines Absackens des Preises. Wird das Gesetz verabschiedet, sollen alle Einnahmen, die der Staat aus dem erschlossenen neuen Erdöl-Feld zufliessen, einen Stabilisierungsfonds kommen; 80% davon sollen für die Schuldentilgung genutzt werden. Diese Massnahme - das zweite wichtige Vorhaben der Regierung - lässt darauf hoffen, dass die Bevölkerung endlich einmal von dem Bodenschatz profitieren kann, nachdem das Land trotz dem Erdöl-Reichtum bis heute arm geblieben ist.

Die grösste Herausforderung dürfte in der Struktur- bzw. Wettbewerbspolitik liegen. Jahrelang war an deren Stelle quasi die Abwertung der Landeswährung getreten, mit der man die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit ecuadorianischer Produkte im Ausland herstellte. Gestiegene Kosten haben neben dem Wegfall dieses «Instrumentes» die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit noch zusätzlich belastet. Sie leidet oder litt ohnehin unter einigen Sonderbelastungen (z. B. Krankheitsbefall der Shrimps, «El Niño»); Korruption, Bürokratie und fehlende oder teure Infrastrukturleistungen sind zudem permanente Kostenfaktoren. Im World Competitiveness Report des World Economic Forum taucht Ecuador denn auch unter 75 Ländern auf dem 72. Platz auf.

Copyright © Neue Zürcher Zeitung AG
QUITO, Ecuador, March 14 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean President Gustavo Noboa suspended on Thursday the planned auction of 51 percent of shares in 10 electric companies in the Andean highlands and Amazon jungle amid rising opposition to the sale.

The government will proceed with the auction of seven electric distribution companies serving the Pacific coast, where local officials have lauded privatization as a way to boost competitiveness.

"The government has arranged for the process to go ahead for the seven companies on Ecuador`s coast and to be suspended for the 10 companies in the highlands and jungle," Noboa told reporters.

The decision comes a day after Quito`s city council voted to hang onto its 34 percent stake in the local electric company, denying the potential buyer the right to acquire the 75 percent stake needed to control the company according to its statutes.

The government is banking on the April 12 auction to make electric services more efficient and attract investment in energy generation needed to meet burgeoning demand in this nation of 12 million people.

It originally planned to auction the 10 companies serving the Andean highlands and Amazon in one group, and the seven coastal companies in another.

The government has the backing of the more market oriented Pacific coast, where the country`s biggest city and business center Guayaquil has long had private electric service and favors of handing over weak state companies to private owners.

But electric company unions and Indian organizations have led marches in Quito against the sale, arguing that private owners will turn electricity into a booming business and make services too costly for the poor.

Business leaders in Quito fear that debt-burdened state companies won`t be able to compete for energy with private companies on the coast, leading to a decline in service that could make it tough for the Andean region to lure investment.

Spain`s Union Fenosa UNF.MC , global power company AES Corp. AES.N and Argentina`s Pecom Energia PER.BA are prequalified to participate in the sale.

"It`s a terrible atrocity that the process has been suspended in the highlands and the coast is going ahead. It means a serious regional difference," said Gustavo Pinto, president of the Chamber of Industries for the province surrounding Quito.

Regionalism is an age-old problem in Ecuador, with coastal officials accusing the Quito-based central government of neglecting their needs and Andean business leaders arguing that coastal politicians care little about the highlands.

Noboa said shareholders in Ecuador`s state-owned electric companies in the jungle and mountains will be responsible for modernizing and improving electric services in their jurisdictions.The shareholders include provincial and municipal governments.
...eine ecuador anleihe hatte ich auch mal....
1999...wurde ohne rückzahlung einfach eingestellt..
nie wieder was von ecuador gehört..
noch nichtmal das sie nicht zahlen....

weiß jemand was darüber???

gruß
amtag99
@amtag99

bist du sicher, dass du eine reguläre Anleihe hattest und nicht ein synthetisches Produkt ("synthetische Anleihe") ? Die Anleihen wurden in die am Anfang aufgeführten ECU12 und ECU30 Anleihen getauscht bzw. zurückgezahlt. Such doch mal die WKN oder ISIN Nummer deines Wertpapiers heraus, dann kann man das klären.

Grüße K1
Ja klar, das liegt dann am dem "synthetisch", dass die irgendwann wertlos ausgebucht wurden. Ausser wenn man sich hypergenau auskennt und das Risiko eines synthetischen Produkts kennt sollte man besser nur die "echten" Anleihen kaufen. Erspart viel Ärger, aber nachher ist man bekanntlich immer klüger...

Grüße K1
..ich dachte das liegt am L.t.d...
eine GmbH die Zwischen geschaltet ist und dann Pleite geht...
..dann war es nicht der Staat, sondern die GmbH....

so einfach geht das...

dachte ich...


Gruß
amtag99
@amtag99

"..ich dachte das liegt am L.t.d...
eine GmbH die Zwischen geschaltet ist und dann Pleite geht...
..dann war es nicht der Staat, sondern die GmbH....


Nein, daran dass die Ltd. "pleite" geht liegt es nicht, sondern daran, dass bei diesem Konstrukt beispielsweise bei unterschreiten eines bestimmten Kurses (bspw. 30) oder anderer Ereignisse (bspw. Einstellung der Zinszahlung für eine gewisse Zeit) das ganze Konstrukt "wertlos" wird. Nettes Geschäft wie gesagt für die Bank, die sowas aufgelegt hat, denn sie streicht sozusagen den "Restwert" ein (vereinfacht gesagt).

---

Das BSP Wachstum für das Jahr 2001 wurde übrigens von der Zentralbank 5,4 auf 5,6% heraufkorrigiert. Der nunmehr stark gestiegene Ölpreis sorgt für deutliche Verbesserung auf der Einnahmenseite. Also ganz gut für die Anleihen.

Nichtsdestotrotz hoffe ich, dass der "Leidensdruck" für die Implementierung des Ölstabilisationsfonds noch hoch genug ist und die anstehenden Reformvorhaben auch wirklich durchgeführt werden. Dies ist eine Vorbedingung dafür, dass sich das Land auch mittelfristig positiv entwickeln kann. Hoffentlich hält der IWF (von dem ich sonst nicht so viel halte) ordentlich die Hand drauf. Eine neue Vereinbarung soll es bis Ende diesen Monats geben.

Die ECU12 könnte in den nächsten Tagen über 80 ausbrechen (aktuell 80,20). Der Chart der ECU30 sieht natürlich noch besser aus, zu berücksichtigen bei der ECU12 ist aber, dass sie eine wesentlich höhere laufende Verzinsung (von ca. 15%) aufweist, die nicht im Chart enthalten ist.

Grüße K1
Die Steuereinnahmen sind weiterhin gut. Hoffentlich vergessen sie darüber die Reformvorhaben nicht.

Grüße K1


Ecuador Mar tax receipts up 32.5 pct on yr

Last Updated: April 17, 2002 06:42 PM ET

QUITO, Ecuador, April 17 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean tax receipts rose 32.5 percent to $200 million in March 2002 versus a year ago, the Internal Revenue Service said on Wednesday.
Net tax collection, which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits, was $151 million in March 2001, the Internal Revenue Service, known as SRI for its Spanish initials, said in a monthly report.
Tax collection during the first quarter of 2002 was $620.5 million, which surpassed SRI`s goal for this period by 21.6 percent.
This Andean nation expects in 2002 to reel in $2.5 billion in taxes, this the government`s biggest source of revenue.
QUITO, Ecuador April 25 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Congress on Thursday approved a package of fiscal reforms required to secure a crucial IMF loan accord, but scrapped a key provision that would have set aside 80 percent of a new oil fund to pay off its debt.

It was not immediately clear whether the provision`s absence would threaten Ecuador`s plans to secure a $240 million, one-year IMF loan accord, which it desperately needs to pay its debt this year.

This Andean nation alarmed investors in 1999 when it defaulted on part of its foreign debt, but regained some market confidence after a 2000 debt restructuring and the completion of its first IMF deal in 15 years in 2001.

After arduous debate on Thursday, Congress approved a bill that sets limits on public spending and creates an oil-stabilization fund to cover potential budget gaps, invest in infrastructure, pay off public debt and the government`s debt to the Social Security system.

But Ecuador`s single-chamber legislature introduced a key change that gives the president free rein on how to allocate this oil fund, axing the government`s plan to channel 80 percent of its resources to lower its debt burden.

"The political pressure to allocate this, based on politics and not on technical grounds, is huge. So, hopefully, the president will veto this. The problem with that is we will need to wait another month, at least, for the IMF to sign off," said Luis Oganes, Andean debt strategist at JP Morgan in New York.

Congress` fiscal package will now be shipped to President Gustavo Noboa, who will have 10 days to approve or veto the bill.

The IMF wanted Ecuador to use this fund, which will contain revenues from crude transported through a new pipeline set for completion in 2003, to lower its debt burden and protect the budget against oil price swings.

The country is counting on a fresh IMF accord to tap a host of other multilateral credits it needs to pay $854 million in loan principal this year, on its more than $14 billion of public debt.

Many legislators also voiced concern over giving the executive branch a virtual carte blanche over distributing the fund`s resources, a proposal that squeaked by with the minimum 62 votes needed to pass.

"We just hope that Ecuador will have lucid governors that can manage this wealth with good judgment," said Democratic Left lawmaker Guillermo Landazuri, who opposed handing over such discretion to the president.

CAPS PUBLIC SPENDING

Other important points of the bill seek to limit annual hikes in the central government`s primary spending, excluding interest payments, to 2.5 percent in real terms.

The bill also aims to slash the deficit between the government`s revenues -- excluding those from oil exports -- and spending, by 0.2 percent of gross domestic product each year to limit Ecuador`s dependence on oil.

Xavier Neira, bloc leader for the right-leaning Social Christian party, said he was pleased that Ecuador had the foresight to set limits on how the new oil resources would be spent, before they start pouring in.

"I think it`s important that before tapping this new wealth, we set up disciplinary norms to avoid wasting it. I think that`s the most important thing about the bill," Neira told Reuters.

Ecuador is counting on oil, its biggest export, for nearly a third of its 2002 budget, and hopes for a boom in output once the pipeline is completed.

The pipeline will more than double its crude transport capacity, and is expected to usher this nation of 12 million people into an era of stability and growth, after the country was hard-hit by a 1999 economic crisis.
Das ist gut, dass Noboa das Veto einlegt, denn dieser Ölstabilisierungsfonds und die feste Verteilung der Verwendungsform ist sehr wichtig.

Grüße K1


Quito, Ecuador, May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s President Gustavo Noboa used his line-item veto power to assign 70 percent of revenue from a new oil pipeline to reduce government debt, which may help wrap up a $240 million international loan agreement.

Noboa`s changes to the legislation fix how the money from the pipeline is spent, rather than leaving it up to the president`s discretion as Congress`s version of the bill did. Congress could still override the veto.

``The proposal to reduce our debt is so we can free up resources to improve the lives of the Ecuadorean people,`` said Noboa during a news conference at the presidential palace.

The president vetoed the measure in response to pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which demanded approval of a fixed framework for oil revenue in order to wrap up a $240 million standby loan agreement. Congress has 30 days to get a two-thirds majority, or 82 votes, to overturn the veto.

Ecuador has public debt of $14 billion, or 78 percent of gross domestic product and owes as much as $1 billion to the national social security institute.

Noboa allotted 20 percent of the money from the new pipeline for a rainy day fund to cover government expenses when oil prices are low, and 10 percent for health and education projects.

The OCP transnational pipeline, slated to begin operation in September 2003, should generate $800 million for the Ecuadorean government during its first 20 years of operation, according to the CEA Study Center in Quito.

Standby Loan

The Andean nation has been in talks with the IMF for a new standby loan agreement since the beginning of the year to fill an estimated financing gap of $500 million for this year.

Bob Traa, the head of the IMF mission in Ecuador, said the fund would be analyzing the legislation.

Analysts say the changes are an improvement on the version approved by Congress and are likely to win IMF approval.

``It`s better than expected, I think it will be completely acceptable to the IMF,`` said Jose Cerritelli, a Latin America analyst at Bear Stearns & Co. ``The only thing that remains is for Congress to approve the veto which I think is very likely.``

Noboa also used the line-item veto to relax the limit set by Congress to restrict future increases in government spending. The veto increases the permitted growth of inflation-adjusted state spending to 3.5 percent from the 2.5 percent annually approved by congress.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nachdem in dem ganzen hick-hack um ein IWF Agreement und sicher auch wegen der Brasilien-Entwicklung die Kurse wieder fast auf mein Einstiegsniveau gesunken sind sehe ich jetzt wieder gute Einstiegschancen. Der Rücktritt von Emanuel ist positiv, da er offensichtlich in Korruption verwickelt war und mit ihm sicher kein IWF Agreement mehr ausgehandelt worden wäre. Die Steuereinnahmen liegen nachwievor deutlich über Plan, die Öleinnahmen jedoch darunter. Bis Anfang nächsten Jahres dürfte daher auch ohne IWF Agreement kein unüberwindbares Problem bestehen. Spätestens Anfang nächsten Jahres sollte es ein solches aber geben.

Grüße K1
Da die Kurse aus der Versenkung wieder auftauchen, möchte ich mit diesem Thread das Gleiche tun.
Die Wahl rückt näher, Gutierrez liegt scheinbar uneinholbar in Führung.
In Brasilien habe ich vor der Wahl gekauft, weil ich die Angst vor Lula übertrieben fand und in Ecuador bin ich seit kurzem auch mit dabei. Sonst noch jemand investiert?
Neues aus der Bananenrepublik :)

Morgen werden die Zinsen für die ECU 12 fällig, ex geht der Kurs hoffentlich ein bisschen nach oben (bei der 12% Brasilien 06 konnte man das heute jedenfalls beobachten)


(Adds congressional results from paragraph 9, edits)
By Amy Taxin
QUITO, Ecuador, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s presidential campaign descended into mud-slinging on Tuesday as the candidates -- a banana tycoon and a former coup leader -- traded accusations of marital problems and forgery.
In the Nov. 24 vote, Ecuadoreans will choose between Alvaro Noboa, the Andean country`s richest man, and Lucio Gutierrez, who aided an Indian uprising that ousted the president in 2000. Gutierrez has a 20 points lead in the polls which show about 25 percent of voters are still undecided.
Noboa called Gutierrez a "Communist" after the two took the top slots in a first electoral round on Oct. 20 to qualify for the run-off, but since then campaigning has been fairly civil in the turbulent nation of 12 million.
That changed when the populist Noboa accused Gutierrez of verbally abusing his own wife, which the retired colonel denied.
Gutierrez in turn accused Noboa of forging documents to cheat his siblings out of their father`s wealth, a touchy subject as Noboa has been embroiled in a family conflict over the inheritance.
"They started this negative campaign calling me a Communist, and they lost. Now they`re trying to get into my family life and they`re going to lose," Gutierrez said in a television interview on Monday night.
The insults overshadowed the candidates` vague proposals on ways to obtain an International Monetary Fund loan to keep the economy afloat and alleviate the poverty afflicting 60 percent of Ecuadoreans.
The new leader will need to get Ecuador`s wobbly economy on track. The country adopted the U.S. dollar in 2000 amid a severe economic crisis. Ecuador`s last two elected leaders were toppled amid popular uprisings.

OLD PARTIES DOMINATE CONGRESS
Meanwhile election officials released results of the Oct. 20 election for Congress, showing that traditional parties won the bulk of seats, posing a challenge to the two presidential candidates who have both crusaded against politicians.
Election Tribunal officials unofficially disclosed the results, which took more than three weeks to establish after collecting information from provincial centers and tallying the congressional breakdown.
The three biggest parties, whose candidates were defeated by Gutierrez and Noboa, took more than half the 100 seats. The biggest party, the right-of-center Social Christians, took 25 seats. The Congress takes office in January.
Social Christians -- led by hard-liner Leon Febres Cordero who was president from 1984 to 1988 -- gained the presidency of the fragmented legislature, which many Ecuadoreans see as inefficient and corrupt.
The populist Roldosista party -- run by former president Abdala Bucaram, who is in exile in Panama to avoid corruption charges -- won 16 votes, while the Quito-based left-of-center Democratic Left party pulled 14.
Whether Gutierrez or Noboa wins, he will have to seek alliances with the big parties to get bills pushed through Congress or could face a stalemate.
(Additional reporting by Brenda Sempertegui)
((Quito newsroom, quito.newsroom@reuters.com, 593 22 431 753 x114))

Wednesday, 13 November 2002 02:49:21
ENDS [nN12190630]
Hoffentlich haben von den stillen Mitlesern wenigstens ein paar mitgezockt. An diese Wahl-Rallyes in Latam könnte ich mich gewöhnen :) In den letzten Tagen hat es sogar in Berlin halbwegs regelmäßige Umsätze in der 526865 gegeben.

Quito, 25. Nov (Reuters) - Der ehemalige Oberst (korrekt) Lucio Gutierrez hat die Präsidentschaftswahl in Ecuador am Sonntag gewonnen.
Gutierrez erhielt 54,3 Prozent der abgebenen Stimmen, wie das Wahltribunal nach Auszählung von 97 Prozent der Stimmen mitteilte. Sein Konkurrent, der Bananenfabrikant und Milliardär Alvaro Noboa, habe 45,7 Prozent der Stimmen erhalten. "Meine Regierung wird eine der nationalen Einheit sein", sagte Gutierrez einem lokalen Fernsehsender. Sie werde ehrliche Geschäftsleute, ehrliche Banker und soziale Bewegungen umfassen. Gutierrez hatte im Wahlkampf kostenlose Gesundheitsversorgung und günstige Wohnungen versprochen sowie der Korruption den Kampf angesagt. Der 45-jährige Gutierrez hatte besonders bei der indianischen Bevölkerung Stimmen gewonnen.
Trotz anfänglicher Zweifel, zeigten sich ausländische Investoren mit Gutierrez als Wahlsieger zufrieden. Noboa werde mit Populismus und Vetternwirtschaft verbunden, sagten Analysten in New York. Gutierrez hatte sich im Wahlkampf um das Vertrauen ausländischer Anleger und der USA bemüht. Er kündigte an, den US-Dollar entgegen früherer Äußerungen als Landeswährung beizubehalten und erklärte, Ecuador werde sich einer künftigen freien Handelszone der amerikanischen Staaten anschließen. Zudem hatte er bei einem Besuch der New Yorker Wall Street erklärt, sein Land werden seinen Verbindlichkeiten nachkommen und mit dem Internationalen Währungsfonds einen Kredit aushandeln.
Der ehemalige Oberst war 2000 an einem Putsch gegen die Regierung beteiligt gewesen und hatte deswegen eine sechsmonatige Haftstrafe verbüßt. Gutierrez war der Armee mit 15 beigetreten und hatte im Wahlkampf stets seine Uniform getragen. Diese werde er nun nicht mehr brauchen, sagte Gutierrez.
Ecuador gilt als eines der instabilsten Länder Südamerikas. Trotz reicher Ölvorkommen und der Bananen-Industrie leben rund 60 Prozent der Bevölkerung in Armut. Seit 1999 sind Hunderttausende Menschen in die USA oder nach Spanien ausgewandert.
nil/brs

Monday, 25 November 2002 07:54:17
ENDS [nL25281700]
Will mal die Ecuador Anleihen wieder "hocholen". Ich habe meinen Bestand an Ecuador Anleihen gehalten, Zinsen kassiert und kürzlich sogar aufgestockt. Die ECU30 hat den Vorteil, dass sie im Defaultfall einen relativ zur ECU12 deutlich höheren Recovery Value hat (die ECU30 Inhaber erhalten im Defaulfall Zusatzpapiere). Nachteil bei den ECU30 ist, dass es sich um Finanzinnovationen handelt (spielt in meinem Fall aber keine Rolle).

Der Übergang zwischen den Regierungen läuft nicht sonderlich gentlementlike ab. Der Nachfolger schiebt (wohl zurecht) einiges der Vorgängerregierung in die Schuhe, das 2002er Budget enthält einige Schattenhaushalte bzw. noch nicht geleistete Zahlungen. Immerhin ist das, was der neue Präsident erzählt näher an den Vorstellungen des IWF, als zu befürchten gewesen wäre.

Meine Spekulation geht dahin, dass die multilateralen Schulden das Hauptproblem für Ecuador darstellen (insbesondere die 2003er Tilgungen) und die nur relativ geringen Anleiheschulden in ihrer Bedienung bewältig bar sind. Ein Default auf die Anleihen würde Ecuador in den nächsten 2-3 Jahren wenig Ersparnis bringen. Weiterhin halte ich -bei entsprechendem Wohlverhalten- eine IWF Vereinbarung für möglich; ich denke das Beispiel Argentinien hat auch beim IWF gezeigt, dass es besser ist den Default Fall zu verhindern. Als dritten Punkt sehe ich die z.Zt. hohen Ölpreise, die einige Windfallprofits für Ecuador erzeugen. Die Ölpreise können natürlich auch schnell wieder fallen, wenn sich die Weltpolitische Lage entspannt - dann nimmt aber auch die Riskaversion wieder ab (positiv für EM Anleihen) und ausserdem dürfte gegen Ende des Jahres die zusätzliche Ölpipeline in Betrieb genommen werden.

noch-n-zocker, hast Du die "Dinger" noch?

Grüsse K1
Hallo K1,
eine Frage zu ECU 30. Meine Infos zu dieser Anleihe habe ich maxblue entnommen. Als Kupontyp wird Stufenzins angegeben. In einem Forum habe ich gelesen, daß der Kupon ab 2006 10% betragen soll. Deinem Posting wiederum entnehme ich die Bedingungen für den Fall eines evtl. Defaults. Ich gehe davon aus, daß alle diese Infos in den Anleihebedingungen enthalten sind. Aber diese auf die Schnelle zu erhalten, ist nicht ganz einfach. Speziell bei Ecuador-Anleihen gab es doch vor einigen Jahren den Ärger mit Synthetischen-Anleihen. Viele Anleger wurden dabei um ihr Geld gebracht. Aus diesem Grund meine Frage: Kannst Du mir eine Quelle nennen, die die Details zu der ECU 30 enthält?

Vielen Dank
Alsacien
@Alsacien

Den Step-up habe ich im ersten Posting diesen Treads aufgelistet:

526864 Ecuador 30
==============

Zinsen: Step-up
08/01 bis 08/02 5.00%
08/02 bis 08/03 6.00%
08/03 bis 08/04 7.00%
08/04 bis 08/05 8.00%
08/05 bis 08/06 9.00%
08/06 bis Endfälligkeit 10.00%

Zahlung halbjährlich (15.2./15.8.)
Fälligkeit 15.8.2030

Zusätzliche Bonds im Defaultfall:

Prior to (and including) the fourth anniversary of the
Issue Date: 30%

From (but excluding) the fourth anniversary of the Issue
Date to (but including) the seventh anniversary of the
Issue Date: 20%

From (but excluding) the seventh, anniversary of the Issue
Date to (but including) the eleventh anniversary of the
Issue Date :10%

Sonst ist mir nichts im Prospekt aufgefallen. Falls Du den Anleiheprospekt willst stell Deine Email hier rein (oder per BM), dann maile ich ihn Dir.

Grüsse K1
Ich bin aus der ECU 12 raus (die meine Bank im Übrigen auch als Finanzinnovation einstuft :confused: ), weil ich im Moment Corporate Bonds mehr mag als die Govvies. Aber die ECU 30 werde ich mir mal anschauen, das mit der erhöhten Recovery Rate war mir neu.
Die URU 05 find ich ebenfalls sehr sexy! Auch beim Kurs um die 60.
Es gibt da übrigens noch einen USD-Bond bis Nov. 03- kennt aber kaum jemand. Steht so 85,kann man glaub nur im telehandel kaufen. Ist bestimmt rel sicher, aber vom Potential her uninteressant für mich,da ich von einer starken URU-Entwicklung ausgehe.
WKN hab ich leider von dem 03er nicht.
Nette Zwischenrallye. Wenn es in 2-3 Monaten ein IMF Programm gibt, dann wird es nochmals deutlich nach oben gehen, wenn nicht erwarte ich ein Zurückfallen auf rd. 35-40 (ECU30).

Grüsse K1
01/19 12:27
Ecuador Announces Spending Cuts to Narrow $2 Bln Financing Gap
By Rachel Dex

Quito, Ecuador, Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s President Lucio Gutierrez raised gasoline prices, cut public sector wages and announced plans to raise taxes in a bid to close a $2.0 billion financing gap for this year and to secure a multilateral loan agreement.

The measures, effective immediately, include increasing the price of high-octane fuel by 25 percent to $1.77 per gallon, standard fuel by 18 percent to $1.32 per gallon, and diesel by 3 percent to 93 cents per gallon. The government will also shave 20 percent off the salary of public-sector workers earning more than $1000 per month.

``If we don`t make this decision we won`t have the money to pay the social obligations of the state, the economic situation of the country is so serious,`` Gutierrez said during a national television address aired repeatedly between Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Gutierrez, who was sworn into office last Wednesday, has warned that without both tough measures and an International Monetary Fund loan agreement the government will struggle to meet budget commitments this year, which include $2.1 billion in debt service.

Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo, who announced details of the decree together with Gutierrez, said the package also included a ban on public-sector wage increases, a gradual reduction in the number of public-sector workers and a transfer of all non- productive assets of the state to the central government in a bid to narrow the gap.

``This is a good sign, the government appears to be facing up to the fiscal crisis with the appropriate measures, these are orthodox reforms which are designed to be in line with the multilateral demands,`` said Maria de la Paz Vela, an economic analyst at Quito-based consultancy Multiplica.

Financing Gap

Pozo blamed the financing gap on actions by previous administrations, including $750 million of unpaid bills from the last government, of which he said $400 million are `illegal` and won`t be paid.

The new finance minister also announced the economic targets agreed to with the IMF for the new standby loan agreement, which the government hopes will unlock multilateral funds of up to $500 million.

``The agreement will be based on a year-end inflation target of between 6 and 8 percent, economic growth for this year of between 3.5 and 4.0 percent and an average price of oil of $18 per barrel with an export volume estimated at 105 million barrels.``

Pozo also announced plans to send a series of reforms to congress, including a bill to reform the customs service and a tax-reform bill, which would introduce a new tax on luxury cars and a new tax on property larger than 200 square meters, though he didn`t provide details.

The government said the goals of the economic-reform program were to reduce poverty, cut inflation and create jobs, with an average economic growth rate of 5 percent expected for the next five years.
UPDATE - Ecuador says IMF`s Krueger approves letter of intent
Thursday February 6, 9:36 pm ET

(Updates with background, comments throughout)

QUITO, Ecuador, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo said on Thursday the nation had secured approval from International Monetary Fund management on a letter of intent needed to obtain a vital $200 million loan.

The cash-strapped nation still needs approval from the IMF`s board of directors to obtain the loan deal, which would help cover a $2 billion financing gap and enable the country to meet payments on its $11 billion foreign debt this year.

"Tonight, the IMF`s (First Deputy Managing Director) Anne Krueger signed the letter of intent and approved the letter of intent with Ecuador", Pozo said in a telephone interview with local television station Ecuavisa.

This Andean nation has taken tough austerity measures in an effort to secure the loan, which is expected to open the door to another $300 million in multilateral credits the country needs to pay close to $1.5 billion in debt principal in 2003.

New President Lucio Gutierrez has made obtaining the loan a top priority since he took office on Jan. 15, denouncing his predecessor for leaving a stack of unpaid bills while hiking wages, thereby threatening a delicate fiscal balance.

Gutierrez has taken austerity measures including freezing public sector wages, slashing top bureaucrats` salaries and hiking gasoline prices, which have irritated some leftists and Indians in his governing coalition.

The IMF said last week it had reached an agreement with Ecuador on the economic policies needed for a loan. The 13-month program would include tax, civil service and customs reforms aimed at curbing spending and boosting revenues.

Ecuador`s Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 3.5 and 4.0 percent this year and for annual consumer price inflation to total between 6 and 8 percent as the nation struggles to keep its economy on track under the greenback.

Economic analyst Vicente Albornoz told Reuters via telephone he was not surprised at Gutierrez`s ability to obtain quick approval for a letter of intent but was concerned about the government`s ability to complete an IMF program.

It could be tough for the new leader to push reforms through an opposition-led Congress where his plans to slash the size of the legislature and change how judges are chosen threaten the power of the nation`s biggest political parties.

Gutierrez also must contend with divisions within his own coalition, as his supporters protest to demand government jobs and urge him to ease up on austerity measures.

Gutierrez is expected to meet with IMF Managing Director Horst Koehler on Monday in Washington.
Ecuador to Alter Taxes, Make Other Changes for Aid, Pozo Says
By James Tyson

Washington, Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s finance minister, Mauricio Pozo, rejected investor concerns his country`s Congress will torpedo a stricter tax code and other changes required for continued access to $500 million from government- backed lenders.

``We will be true to our reforms,`` Pozo said in an interview with Bloomberg News in Washington. ``We are at this moment dealing with political pressures from Congress.``

President Lucio Gutierrez will show in the next month whether he can dispel investors` doubts by rallying lawmakers behind fiscal austerity and other changes he promised in order to net $500 million from the International Monetary Fund and other Washington-based lenders, said Whitney Kane Gomez, the Andean strategist at Morgan Stanley.

``We see the biggest risk to the near-term Ecuador story as execution risk with regards to the IMF program,`` Gomez said. ``The key risk is that Congress will not want to cooperate with the executive branch.``

Without support for IMF-mandated changes, Gutierrez may lose access to credit that he has said is vital for meeting $2.1 billion in debt payments and other government expenses. Gutierrez, a former army colonel, took office on Jan. 15.

``I can`t say I`m optimistic,`` said John Peta, who helps manage $215 million in emerging market debt at Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston. ``Gutierrez has a lot of challenges ahead of him.``

Congress is scheduled to vote by Feb. 28 on a government budget designed to meet an IMF austerity threshold. It also plans within the next month to consider an IMF-supported bill aimed at curtailing corruption and tax evasion by merging the customs service and tax authority.

`Correct Direction`

``In the next few weeks we expect to get an idea of whether Gutierrez will play hardball with the opposition or whether he will make concessions and meet them halfway,`` Kane Gomez said.

Ecuador bonds have risen 16 percent this year, ranking second among the 33 that are issued by emerging market countries and tracked by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Only the bonds of Cote D`Ivoire have performed better, returning 22 percent.

``We are going in the correct direction and I think in the coming months we will have better results,`` Pozo said.

Gutierrez plans by April to seek approval in Congress for a bill that cuts the government workforce and simplifies a piecemeal payment system by putting government workers on salaries. By the end of August, he plans to send Congress a bill that reduces exemptions and removes other tax loopholes.

To secure IMF aid, Gutierrez last month unveiled a package of fiscal cutbacks that includes a freeze on government wages combined with increases in fuel prices and energy tariffs.

The IMF-mandated austerity program faces resistance from two opposition parties and the Indian movement Pachakutik, the government`s main ally in Congress. Pachakutik has criticized the government wage freeze and a fuel price increase of 32 percent.

By gaining IMF assurances of $200 million in credit last week, Gutierrez secured $300 million from the World Bank, Inter- American Development Bank, and Andean Development Corporation.
Hallo K1,
kannst Du noch kurz darlegen welche Bonds einem bei einem
Default der 30 jaehrigen Ecuador eingebucht werden.
Interessant waeren fuer mich nur US Staatsanleihen, weltbankanleihen oder aehnliches.
Gruss Tofu
@tofu1

das ist wohl ein kleines Mißverständnis, es werden zusätzliche ECU30 Anleihen eingebucht - Weltbank o.ä. wäre wohl ein Bißchen viel des guten ;-) (dann würden die Kurse übrigens wohl auch ein wenig höher stehen). Es geht in diesem Falle mehr darum, dass die ECU30 relativ zu den ECU12 im Defaultfall besser bzw. weniger schlecht dastehen.

Grüsse K1
Hallo K1,
dann ist mir das Chance Risiko Verhaeltnis zu gering, zumal ja Ecuador einen default schon hinter sich hat.
Da gab es schon bessere Zeiten.
Z.B. bei der 401970 und der 401971 wurden noch etwas werthaltigere Assets mit hinzugefuegt.
(Postanleihen)
Aus diesem Grund ist die 401971 besonders interessant, da
momentan der Wert der zugrundeliegenden Zeropostanleihe bei ca.40% liegen duerfte.
Ecuador

Germany agrees to debt forgiveness Germany agrees to debt forgiveness Germany agrees to debt forgiveness Germany agrees to debt forgiveness
The German government has agreed to forgive US$11 million in debt it is owed by Ecuador.It is ap-
parently considering further debt relief.A further US$30 million of bilateral debt to Germany,which is not
eligible for forgiveness,is being restructured.
According to a German embassy official in Quito,the action forms part of a debt swap arrangement
between the two countries,and is also a component of a broader attempt to regularize Ecuador ’s obliga-
tions to Paris Club creditors.Ecuador is thought to be behind on payments on an estimated US$150 mil-
lion in Paris Club commitments.The fact that progress is now being made in tackling this backlog is
good news.One of the prior actions that the government needs to take before the I F agreement can be
signed is a clearance of its Paris Club arrears.

Aus www.dbla.de (daily 17.2.03 der DresdnerLA)
Ecuador dlr reserves down 9.2 pct wk to Feb 14
Monday February 17, 12:52 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s U.S. dollar
reserves dropped 9.2 percent to $959 million in the week ended
Feb. 14, the Central Bank reported on Monday.
The following table shows reserve levels for Ecuador, which
adopted the U.S. dollar as its currency in 2000:
DATE RESERVES
Feb 14 $959 mln
Feb 7 $1.056 bln
Jan 30 $1.029 bln
Jan 24 $971 mln
Jan 17 $980 mln
Jan 10 $903 mln
Jan 3 $971 mln
Dec 31, 2002 $1.008 bln
Dec 31, 2001 $1.074 bln

----

Ecuador Jan. tax receipts up 15.5 pct on yr
Monday February 17, 1:28 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s net tax collection rose 15.5 percent in January to $271 million compared with the first month of 2002, the country`s Internal Revenue Service reported on Monday.

Net tax collection excludes the voluntary application of tax credits.

Ecuador`s most important tax --a 12 percent Value Added Tax-- reeled in $179.4 million in January, 10.8 percent more than a year ago, the Service said in its monthly report.

Ecuador took in $2.7 billion in taxes in 2002, beating budget expectations by more than 8 percent. The Andean nation is due to set goals for 2003 tax collection once the central government budget is approved by the end of February.

----

Grüße K1
02/24 16:36
Ecuador to Seek Partners to Invest $5.1 Bln to Boost Oil Output
By Rachel Dex

Quito, Ecuador, Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador will seek private partners to invest $5.1 billion to re-open closed wells and develop new tracts to boost output of the state oil company, Energy Minister Carlos Arboleda said.

Arboleda said the government plans to launch four major projects in the coming months. The largest requires investment of $3.57 billion to develop the Ishpingo, Tiputini Tambococha (ITT) oil tract in the Amazon basin, which has estimated reserves of 1.4 billion barrels of heavy crude oil.

``It`s a very big project,`` Arboleda said in an interview. ``We will be asking companies to start presenting offers for the field in the next two months.``

Oil, the Andean nation`s leading export, is the second largest source of government income after taxes, accounting for $1.5 billion, or 22 percent of budgeted revenue this year. Oil output fell 3.1 percent last year due to lower state output.
Schon ein Paar Tage alt, trotzdem ganz lesenswert:

TEXT-Fitch sees IMF pact improving Ecuador credit
Thu February 20, 2003 05:58 PM ET

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

NEW YORK, Feb 20 - Fitch Ratings said today that, should Ecuador complete two remaining prior actions as part of its agreement with the IMF, the Andean country`s sovereign credit outlook could improve. Fitch currently has a long-term foreign currency sovereign rating of `CCC+` for Ecuador with a Stable Outlook.

Ecuador has signed a letter of intent for a US$200 million IMF program which would make the country eligible for an additional US$230 million in exceptional financing from the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank, closing the expected US$1.37 billion financing gap for 2003. Uncertainty regarding this year`s fiscal financing plan had been a constraint on the `CCC+` long-term foreign currency and `C` short-term foreign currency ratings.

The first prior action is to clear approximately US$150 million in arrears to multilateral and Paris Club creditors. The second is congressional approval of the president`s budget, which includes a public sector wage freeze and a US$18/barrel Ecuador oil price assumption. Ecuador`s oil basket trades at about US$3.20 below West Texas crude. Should congress fail to approve the president`s budget, the executive could veto congress` version, a step that could lead to another congressional vote and delay or even prevent final approval of the program, which is expected to go to the IMF board around March 12. President Gutierrez currently lacks a majority in the divided legislature, making it difficult to predict the fate of legislation with certainty.

The president`s proposed budget projects a non-financial public sector cash surplus of 1.9% of GDP, compared with a reported 1.1% of GDP cash surplus in 2002. When the US$600 million in arrears accumulated last year are considered, however, the non-financial public sector registered a deficit of 1.3% of GDP. The 3.2% of GDP adjustment is therefore quite ambitious. With expenditures expected to rise by 0.2% of GDP this year, all of the adjustment is projected to come from the revenue side. The gasoline price increase enacted in January could yield US$400 million or 1.5% of GDP, and a potential adjustment in cooking fuel could bring in another US$150 million or 0.6% of GDP. No other significant new taxes or changes in rates have been enacted to support increased revenues, however, so additional revenues are likely to come from public enterprises and improved collections. The president has stated his commitment to root out corruption in customs, and transfers from Petroecuador, and the electricity and telephone utilities could also be boosted. Tax reform including the issue of revenue earmarking is a performance criterion for the proposed IMF program, but it is not due until December, so the impact of such a reform would not take effect until 2004.

The IMF will conduct quarterly reviews of adherence to program performance criteria beginning in June and if interim fiscal and structural goals are not met, ongoing disbursements could be halted. In addition to tax reform, structural performance requirements include labor reform, tariff reform, liquidating intervened banks, and reform of the electricity and telecommunications sectors. Given Ecuador`s tenuous cash position, disbursement suspensions could lead to delayed payments to creditors.

The ratings could be upgraded if authorities demonstrate progress in implementing the program agreed with the IMF, specifically, in meeting their ambitious fiscal goals; if the government`s cash position is improved; political risks do not increase markedly; and if progress is made on liquidating banks taken over following the 1999-2000 banking crisis.
Das Gegenspiel zwischen Präsident und Kongress geht weiter..#

UPDATE - Ecuador budget cuts debt payments, to little avail
Thursday February 27, 5:17 pm ET

(Updates with details, background in paragraphs 6,9,10)

QUITO, Ecuador, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Congress on Thursday approved a 2003 budget that slashes provisions for paying its debt, but the government is likely to ignore this to meet targets agreed to with the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites).

The budget is at the heart of austerity plans agreed to with the IMF in return for a $200 million loan, due to be approved in March.

The $6.7 billion budget boosts spending by 19 percent from last year`s budget bill. It proposes a cut of 9.2 percent in debt payments by the country that defaulted on some foreign liabilities in 1999.

But a senior Economy Ministry official said creditors had nothing to fear.

"The debt will be serviced, and we`ll have to look at the terms in which the budget was approved. It is we who put the budget into effect and we`ll have to look at the legality of that reassignment of resources," said the official, who asked not to be named.

Ecuador has more than $14 billion in foreign and domestic debt public debt.

Congress cut $207 million from the original $2.24 billion assigned for debt payments in the bill, instead earmarking funds for social spending and education.

The budget assumed oil prices of $18 a barrel compared with $33 a barrel for Oriente crude currently. Oil is the country`s main export and the source of more than 20 percent of government revenues.

Ecuador is forecasting 2003 crude output of 152 million barrels.

The budget forecasts 2003 growth of 3.5 percent to 4 percent of gross domestic product, and inflation of 6 percent to 8 percent.
Ecuador Congress scraps plan to axe customs agency
Wed March 12, 2003 11:49 PM ET

QUITO, Ecuador, March 12 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Congress rejected on Wednesday a government plan to eliminate the customs agency and passed a softer version of a bill required under a $200 million loan program the country is seeking from the IMF.

This Andean nation is awaiting approval from the International Monetary Fund`s board of directors on a crucial loan program that would extend until March 2004 and require the approval of customs, civil service and tax reforms.

The customs bill was seen as the easiest of these reforms for President Lucio Gutierrez to push through a fractious Congress where the retired army colonel has little support.

But powerful coastal lawmakers have resisted attempts to bring the customs agency under the control of the hard-line Quito-based Internal Revenue Service, which has cracked down on evasion and raised tax revenues in recent years.

Lawmakers voted to keep the current Ecuadorean Customs Corp. but give the government more power to crack down on evaders by charging inspectors, importers and exporters fines if they fail to share data with the Internal Revenue Service.

Nearing a midnight deadline, 51 of 88 lawmakers present voted against Gutierrez`s proposal to eliminate the customs agency, calling it an unconstitutional attempt to subdue regional players to a centralized authority in Quito.

It is unclear whether the bill passed by Congress will meet the approval of the IMF or Gutierrez, who has said he might veto sections if the revised version fails to maintain his plan`s "spirit". He has 10 days to approve or veto the bill.

The customs bill formed part of Gutierrez`s crusade against corruption and evasion in customs that reports say cost the cash-strapped nation some $600 million each year.

Also under the 100-member legislature`s version of the bill, the military would take over customs` security for 180 days to help train guards but not handle security on a permanent basis, as Gutierrez had suggested.

The IMF`s board of directors is expected to vote on whether to approve Ecuador`s loan deal next week, which the country needs to help cover its debt payments this year.
Petroecuador says Feb state crude exports up 21.9 pct
Wed March 12, 2003 07:04 PM ET

QUITO, Ecuador, March 12 (Reuters) -- Petroecuador`s crude exports rose 21.9 percent in February to 128,600 barrels per day (bpd) compared with a month earlier, the state oil company said in a statement on Wednesday.

Petroecuador reeled in $114.3 million for its crude exports in February, the company said in a statement.

In January, the state oil firm received $90.4 million for crude exports at an average per-barrel price of $27.61.

Crude oil is this Andean nation`s biggest export.
Ich habe heute noch mal ein wenig von der ECU30 nachgelegt. Unter den sehr risikoreichen Staatsanleien scheint mir diese am aussichtsreichsten bei halbwegs begrenztem Verlustpotenzial.

Grüße K1
CAF to loan Ecuador $2 billion for 2003-2006
Thu March 13, 2003 03:04 PM ET

QUITO, Ecuador, March 12 (Reuters) - The Andean Development Corporation (CAF) said on Wednesday it had approved a $2 billion loan for Ecuador to help finance the country`s social and economic programs for 2003-2006.

"The $2 billion program includes several loans over a four-year period," CAF President Enrique Garcia told a news conference in the Ecuadorean capital Quito.

President Lucio Gutierrez, who took office on Jan. 15, has won praise from the International Monetary Fund for his austere economic policies. Ecuador hopes to soon clinch a $200 million with the IMF.

About 18 percent of CAF`s loan portfolios are with Ecuador.
Ups, heute gibt es aber eine Menge von Meldungen zu Ecuador...

MF may boost loan to help Ecuador with Paris Club
Thursday March 13, 7:07 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, March 13 (Reuters) - Ecuador is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) for it to expand an anticipated $200 million loan so that the country can pay debts to the Paris Club creditor nations, the Central Bank`s president said on Thursday.

The IMF board is due to meet next Wednesday in Washington to approve the loan, which is key for Ecuador to keep up to date with payments on its $14 billion public debt.

There is a possibility this loan could be increased in order to allow Ecuador to pay of part of its debt to the Paris Club, Central Bank head Mauricio Yepes said.

The country has used $56 million of its treasury funds to pay off much of $80 million in overdue payments due to the club. The remaining back payments could either come from the IMF, or directly from state coffers, according to Yepes.

"The good news is that the Fund itself could provide us with the resources to make that payment," he said, in reference to debts with the Paris Club, which is an association of government creditors.

"But we are negotiating," he said, without providing more details.

The Paris Club is also due to discuss reprogramming of debt payments during the 13 months of the IMF accord.

"We have an agreement with the Paris Club to restructure all the maturities in 2003," Yepes said, explaining that Ecuador could ask for about $100 million in maturities to be reprogrammed.

Ecuador`s debt with the Paris Club totals $1.3 billion.

Ecuador, which defaulted on some foreign debt in 1999, has restructured debt with the Paris Club seven times, and has failed to meet the terms of six of these agreements.

The 13-month IMF program would also grant Ecuador access to $300 million in loans from other multilateral agencies.

The poverty-stricken nation must make $2.24 billion in debt payments this year.


http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030313/economy_ecuador_parisclub_1.html
Na ja,

ist nun wirklich keine Ueberraschung. Und wenn jetzt noch der Oelpreis runtergeht dann gibt´s halt wieder einmal einen default...

Ich habs ja schon mal angesprochen, ist aber schon eine Zeit lang her:

Ecuador ist ein heisses Eisen, ich wuerde dort keinen Cent anlegen.

Happy trading,

Norbi
@Norbi2

"ist nun wirklich keine Ueberraschung. "

ich weiß nicht was Du meinst, aber die letzten Meldungen sind in der Tendenz eher positiv. Bremsendes Element bleibt die Auseinandersetzung zwischen Kongress und Präsident.

"Und wenn jetzt noch der Oelpreis runtergeht dann gibt´s halt wieder einmal einen default..."

M.E. wesentlich wichtiger ist die Fiskaldisziplin und das Strukturreformen umgesetzt werden und die Frage, ob die Zahlungsfälligkeiten mit den IFI’s in diesem Jahr entsprechend geregelt (sprich verlängert werden können). Der Ölpreis ist mit 18$ im Budget angesetzt, da müsste der Ölpreis schon deutlich fallen (was aber nicht ausgeschlossen ist).

"Ich habs ja schon mal angesprochen, ist aber schon eine Zeit lang her:"

Ja ich erinnere mich, Du hattest das Datum der Präsidentschaftswahlen auf 2004 gelegt ;-)

"Ecuador ist ein heisses Eisen, "

Da stimme ich Dir im begrenztem Maß zu.

Grüße K1
UPDATE - IMF approves $205 mln Ecuador loan
Friday March 21, 6:08 pm ET

(Adds details, background)

WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Friday it has approved a $205 million loan for Ecuador, helping the Andean nation plug a financing gap and paving the way for $330 million in other loans.

The IMF said in a brief statement that the approval will make $41 million of the 13-month loan available immediately.

"The executive board of the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) today approved a 13-month, $205 million stand-by arrangement for Ecuador to support the country`s economic and financial program through March 2004," the lender said.

The loan will help Ecuador access another $330 million in loans from other multilateral credits like the World Bank (News - Websites) -- cash it needs to help pay its debts.

In return for the loan, Ecuador agreed to shore up its weak budget by promising to only raise education spending, by up to $165 million, if spending cuts are made elsewhere to offset the expense. Authorities also promised to take steps to dismantle state-held banks, which crashed in a 1998-2000 banking crisis.

Ecuador is relying on the IMF loan to sustain investor confidence and ease a cash crunch plaguing the government since President Lucio Gutierrez took office in January and inherited a stack of unpaid bills from his predecessor. The previous government had failed to negotiate a pact with the IMF due to a failure to implement agreed-upon economic reforms.

Wall Street analysts saw the loan as vital to help avoid a debt default. Ecuador missed payments on its Brady and Eurobonds during a 1999 economic crisis and restructured those debts a year later.
Fitch Revises Outlook on Ecuador`s Sovereign Rating to Positive

24 Mar 2003 5:14 AM
Fitch Ratings-London/New York-March 24, 2003: Fitch Ratings has today revised the Rating Outlook on Ecuador`s `CCC+` Long-term foreign currency sovereign rating to Positive from Stable, given IMF approval of a US$205 million Stand-by program.

The IMF program makes Ecuador eligible for US$230m in financing from the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank. The Andean Development Bank (CAF) plans to make up to US$500m per year available to Ecuador during the next four years. Thus, the expected US$1.35 billion public sector financing gap for 2003 (which includes clearing arrears) is largely covered, and 2004 financing needs appear within reach, as long as fiscal targets and other performance criteria are met. Prior to the announcement of the program, uncertainty regarding this year`s fiscal financing plan had been a constraint on Ecuador`s rating. Furthermore, given concerns about a robust implementation of the program, Fitch will monitor economic policy performance closely, as well as IMF quarterly reviews beginning in June 2003. According to Ecuador`s Letter of Intent (LOI) with the IMF, as amended on March 13, the government has met all seven `prior actions` required for Board approval. A critical prior action was to clear approximately US$150m in arrears to Paris Club creditors. With the paydown of US$52m in arrears since the beginning of the year, the Board was satisfied that this action was met, in spite of additional arrears generated this year and the fact that further Paris Club rescheduling appears unlikely. The government has committed to paying the balance of arrears (roughly US$90m) within four weeks.

A second critical prior action was to submit a customs service reform law to Congress. Congressional opposition to this measure raises concerns about its ultimate passage. Thirdly, congressional passage of President Gutierrez`s 2003 budget was another completed prior action, in spite of containing an authorization to spend an additional US$165m for education. The LOI was amended to include a commitment to reduce other spending categories in a like amount. And, in spite of recent public sector wage demands, the government has agreed with the IMF to make any wage adjustment part of a comprehensive civil service reform, which should prevent the wage bill from rising dramatically. A fourth important adjustment to the LOI that underpinned Board approval was the extension of deadlines for independent auditors and trust managers to be selected for managing assets from the 1999-2000 banking crisis.

The 2003 budget projects a non-financial public sector cash surplus of 1.9% of GDP, compared with a 1.1% surplus in 2002. When last year`s US$600 million in arrears are considered, the scale of the adjustment this year, 3.2% of GDP, appears ambitious. With expenditures expected to rise by 0.2% of GDP this year, the adjustment is to come on the revenue side. The gasoline price increase enacted in January could yield US$400 million or 1.5% of GDP. No other significant tax changes have been enacted, so additional revenues are likely to come from public enterprises and improved collections. Tax reform is a performance criterion in the IMF program, but is not due until end-November, so the impact would not come until 2004. Oil revenues may well exceed what was budgeted this year, given an average price for Ecuadoran crude of US$29 per barrel so far this year, compared to a budgeted US$18 per barrel. Yet oil prices slid with the onset of the Iraq conflict, with Ecuadoran crude falling to US$20.00 per barrel. The fiscal responsibility law passed last year requires that a large portion of oil revenues in excess of those budgeted go to public debt reduction. If fiscal and structural goals are not met during the IMF`s quarterly reviews, disbursements could be halted. In addition to tax reform, structural performance criteria include labor and tariff reform, liquidating intervened banks, and reform of the utilities sectors. Given Ecuador`s tenuous cash position, disbursement suspensions would lead to debt servicing pressures. The rating could be upgraded if the IMF program is fully implemented - in particular, meeting fiscal targets, preventing new arrears, and liquidating intervened banks. Recent modifications to the program, including the authorization of spending increases and a postponement of arrears clearage, as well as political tensions, raise concerns about full implementation. The rating Outlook could revert to stable in the event of significant policy slippage and doubts about multilateral disbursements.

CONTACT: Roger M. Scher +1-212-908-0240 or Theresa Paiz-Fredel +1-212-908-0534, New York / Richard Fox, London +44 (0)20 7417 4222
Ecuador

Sharp pick-up in exports to neighboring countries

Ecuador ’s exports to Andean countries staged a sharp recovery in January. Deliveries to its five An-
dean partners (Bolivia,Colombia,Ecuador,Peru and Venezuela)rose 70%yoy. The increase ap-
pears to reflect a big jump in exports to Peru,which absorbs around three-quarters of Ecuador ’s
total sales to the Andean group.In turn,the recovery in growth in Peru (GDP expanded by 5.2%last
year)was presumably a key factor behind this positive performance.

Quelle: Dresdner Bank LA daily 030327.pdf
Ecuador seen closer on World Bank loan

Sun April 13, 2003 12:14 PM ET
WASHINGTON, April 13 (Reuters) - Ecuador moved closer to a $1.2-billion World Bank loan, the economy minister said on Sunday, as the nation prepared to put behind it a messy 1998 default and initiate talks with the Paris Club of debtor countries.

The Paris Club negotiations, which will seek to put off principal payments due over the next year, are set for April 24.

Ecuador has obtained the International Monetary Fund`s blessing on its economic program, a required step before the World Bank can green-light the World Bank loan, earmarked for for social programs and extra liquidity.

Speaking to reporters at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, Mauricio Pozo said he met with Anoop Singh, the IMF`s top Western Hemisphere official.

IMF officials expressed their "total support for the Ecuadorean economic program ... This paves the way for (the IMF) to issue a favorable criteria for the World Bank, so that we can conclude" a three-year lending package, the minister said.

The minister said the talks with the Paris Club, which groups together the rich creditor nations, will aim to put off payments of $100 million to $150 million. Clearing the Paris Club hurdle is crucial to renegotiate with foreign private creditors, who hold around $4 billion in defaulted debt.

"This presentation and restructuring will bring us up to date on all future payments to the Paris Club," he said. "This will open the way for all debt-swap operations, which is one of the priorities of the administration."

Ecuador President Luis Gutierrez took office in January and quickly clinched a $205-million deal with the IMF. The country, which uses the dollar as its currency, is aiming for a primary fiscal surplus of 5.2 percent of gross domestic product, which Pozo said was the highest in Latin America.

In addition, the government has saved $120 million from an oil windfall so far this year, and the proceeds will be used to whittle away at the country`s debt burden, which has fallen from 120 percent of GDP in 2000 to an expected 52 percent at the end of this year.

In addition to the $1.2 billion World Bank loan, the country has obtained commitments from the Inter-American Development Bank for $600 million.
UPDATE - Snow urges Ecuador to stick to market reforms
Thursday April 24, 10:36 pm ET
By Glenn Somerville

(Adds quotes from news conference)

QUITO, Ecuador, April 24 (Reuters) - Ecuador could attract much more foreign investment, particularly from oil producers, if it took aggressive action to curb corruption, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Thursday.

Snow met Ecuadorean President Lucio Gutierrez and Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo on Thursday and offered encouragement afterward about the government`s efforts to introduce free-market reforms.

The U.S. Treasury chief said at a press conference that Ecuador had chosen "the right economic policies" and by focusing on them it had a greater chance at future prosperity.

Earlier, Snow had strong words about the country`s need to step up its efforts at opening markets and making it possible for foreign companies to do business on fair terms.

"What he (Gutierrez) needs to do -- and he campaigned on it -- first of all is to deal with the corruption issue, which is a wet blanket on investment," Snow said, "That`s probably the most serious issue."

Ecuador has substantial oil reserves, and many foreign firms have expressed interest in investing, but they have also complained about difficulty doing business in the Latin American country.

Gutierrez is committed, under International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) loan terms, to seek customs, taxes and pension reforms that would go some way to creating a more open business climate.

U.S. BUSINESS COMPLAINS

At a meeting with local and U.S. executives from industries including oil production, retailing, pharmaceuticals and banking, Snow heard repeated complaints that Ecuadorean authorities had to show more respect for law and contracts.

Otherwise, it would become difficult to persuade foreign investors to keep pouring in new capital, notwithstanding the country`s abundant petroleum and other reserves, said some of the businessmen, who did not want to be publicly identified.

Snow held a news conference late on Thursday with Pozo, after meeting Gutierrez. The U.S. Treasury secretary heads for Colombia on Friday for the final day of a three-country swing through Brazil, Ecuador and Colombia.

Oil-industry representatives alleged the government was not meeting its commitments to make payments to producers and warned that, with a second major oil pipeline due for completion at mid-year, Ecuador could end up with neither one fully utilized and risk its chances of a potential doubling of production capacity that would give its economy a major boost.

Asked how the oil companies` complaints can be resolved, Pozo indicated that he favored having an international body broker a resolution.

The United States sees Ecuador`s substantial oil reserves as a major advantage for the Andean country that must be exploited more fully as it seeks economic stability.

"If (Ecuador) would open up the opportunity to foreign investment, I think foreign capital would flow in, particularly in oil," Snow said.

In both Brazil and Ecuador, Snow said a major purpose of his visit was to offer U.S. support for the countries` efforts to enact reforms that will get their economies onto a steadier and stronger growth track. Ecuador defaulted on part of its foreign debt payments in 1999.

Snow said it was encouraging that Ecuador had secured a $200 million loan deal from the IMF and that it was taking steps to reduce its debt load.

He said he felt convinced Ecuador was fully committed to all the terms of its IMF loan and said Pozo had raised the issue of seeking relief through the Paris Club of creditor nations from its heavy debt load.

"We indicated that we would be happy to enter into a dialogue with the minister and his colleagues," Snow said.
THE PARIS CLUB AGREES TO A RESCHEDULING OF ECUADOR`S DEBT

On June 13, 2003, the Paris Club concluded an agreement with the Government of the Republic of Ecuador. This agreement consolidates around $ 81 million of principal maturities falling due to official bilateral creditors between March 1, 2003 and March 31, 2004, of which 85% are commercial loans.

The Paris Club agreement follows the International Monetary Fund`s approval of the Stand-by Arrangement on March 21, 2003 and completes the financing expectations during the period. The consolidation is expected to make an important positive contribution to Ecuador`s economic outlook and to strengthen its debt sustainability.

The rescheduling is conducted under the so-called "Houston terms": non-ODA credits are to be repaid over 18 years, including 3 years of grace and progressive payments, at the appropriate market rate; ODA credits are to be repaid over 20 years, including 10 years of grace, at a rate at least as favourable as the concessional rates applying to those loans.

This rescheduling is expected to reduce debt service due to Paris Club creditors between March 1, 2003 and March 31, 2004 to $ 272 million. Amounts paid include notably post-cut-off date maturities and flows on the previous Paris Club agreement concluded in September 2000 as well as moratorium interest on the consolidations.

The Paris Club Creditors agreed to continue to monitor closely the external debt situation of the country notably on the basis of an updated debt sustainability analysis by the IMF in 2004.

On a voluntary and bilateral basis, each creditor may also undertake debt for nature, debt for aid, debt for equity swaps or other debt swaps.

As in any Paris Club agreement, Ecuador agreed to seek comparable treatment from non-Paris Club categories of creditors.

Background notes

1. The Paris Club was formed in 1956. It is an informal group of creditor governments from major industrialized countries. It meets on a monthly basis in Paris with debtor countries in order to agree with them on restructuring their debts.

2. The members of the Paris Club which participated in the reorganization of Ecuador`s debt were representatives of the governments of Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States of America.

Observers at the meeting were representatives of the governments of Belgium, Brazil, Denmark and the Russian Federation as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Secretariat of the UNCTAD and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The delegation of Ecuador was headed by Mr. Mauricio POZO, Minister of Economy and Finance. The meeting was chaired by Mrs Stéphane PALLEZ, Assistant Secretary for European and International Affairs at the French Treasury of the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry, Co-Chairperson of the Paris Club.

Technical notes

1. A Stand By Arrangement was approved by the International Monetary Fund on March 21, 2003.

2. The total stock of Ecuador`s external public sector debt was estimated as of end 2002 to be US$ 11.4 billion (source : IMF Staff Report for the 2003 Article IV Consultation and Request for SBA, published on the IMF web site on April 7, 2003, www.imf.org). The stock of debt owed to Paris Club creditors as at January 1st, 2003 was estimated to be US$ 2 730 million, out of which US$ 1 300 million of pre-cut off date debt, and US$ 1 430 million of post-cut off date debt.

The cut off date (January 1, 1983 for Ecuador) is used by Paris Club creditors for the sole internal purposes of the Paris Club agreement. When a debtor country first meets with Paris Club creditors, the "cut off date" is defined and is not changed in subsequent Paris Club treatments and credits granted after this cut off date are not subject to rescheduling. Thus, the cut off date helps restore access to credit for these debtor countries.

3. Interest rates to be applied on the restructuring are to be negotiated with each creditor country by the Government of Ecuador in the bilateral agreements implementing the Paris Club agreement. ODA loans will be rescheduled at a below-market interest rate not higher than the interest rate of the original credits. Other loans will be rescheduled at a market interest rate (known as "appropriate market rate") defined on the basis of risk-free rates for the currency considered, plus a management margin.

4. As in any Paris Club agreement, Ecuador agreed to seek comparable treatment from non-Paris Club creditors. In the present case, the comparable treatment shall imply an equivalent contribution on those obligations due to private creditors which do not result from previous consolidation deemed comparable.
so langsam gehen die Eqi Bonds wieder in den Bereich wo sie auch hingehoeren.
Der 2012 Bonds wartet jetzt schon wieder mit einer Rendite von 16% auf.
Kaufen wuerde ich die Teile dennoch nicht.
Equador ist fuer mich eines der heissesten Kandidaten fuer den naechsten default mit kapitalschnitt.
Press Release No. 03/134
August 1, 2003
International Monetary Fund
700 19th Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20431 USA

IMF Completes First Review of Ecuador`s Stand-By Arrangement, Approves US$42 Million Disbursement and Grants Waivers

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed today the first review of Ecuador`s performance under a 13-month SDR 151 million (about US$211 million) Stand-By Arrangement, approved in March 2003 (see Press Release No. 03/39). This decision entitles Ecuador to the release of a further SDR 30.2 million (about US$42 million), which would bring the total amount disbursed under the program to SDR 60.4 million (about US$85 million).

In completing the review, the Executive Board also approved Ecuador`s request for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria and waivers of applicability, until September 15, 2003 of certain end-June, 2003 performance criterion.

Following the Executive Board`s discussion on Ecuador, Anne Krueger, First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, said:

"The government of Ecuador has embarked on an ambitious fiscal and structural reform program to foster economic growth and reduce poverty. However, the authorities have faced significant political and institutional challenges, and performance under the program in the first half of 2003 was uneven. Nevertheless, the authorities remain fully committed to the originally envisaged macroeconomic objectives, and have taken corrective steps to ensure that these can be met. Moreover, despite some delays, good progress is being made in advancing the structural reform agenda.

"In the fiscal area, the government has taken measures to contain the wage bill, reduce goods and services outlays, and start collecting in cash PetroEcuador`s fuel deliveries to the electricity companies. As a result, notwithstanding recent wage and pension increases, the program`s objective of an overall public sector primary surplus of 5¼ percent of GDP in 2003 can still be achieved. Moreover, a new law to overhaul customs administration has already been passed, and progress is being made to pass legislation for civil service and tax reforms. These reforms should further strengthen the fiscal position in 2004 and lay the foundations to bring down Ecuador`s high public debt, as revenues from the new oil pipeline begin to come on stream, consistent with the Fiscal Responsibility and Transparency Law.

"The authorities are also committed to improving the management and financial condition of the state enterprises in the oil, electricity and telephone sectors. Strong public enterprise reforms will have a positive effect on the public finances and on the country`s productive infrastructure. Finally, welcome progress is being made to auction off restructured loans of closed banks, and to prepare the way for these banks to be liquidated.

"These reforms, together with actions to improve governance and the investment climate and increased focus on progress in strengthening the social security net, will expand Ecuador`s growth potential while broadening the public support for the government`s program," Ms. Krueger stated.
Hallo K1,
der Kurs der ECU 30 ist auf einem verlockenden Niveau angekommen.
Bei diesen positiven Nachrichten muesste man eigentlich kaufen.
Der Unsicherheitsfaktor ist meinesarachtens momentan nicht mehr Ecuador selber sondern Brasilien die die ganze Region destabilisieren koennten.
@tofu1

die Meldung #70 war mehr oder weniger erwartet. Das Hauptrisiko im Fall von Ecuador liegt in den politischen Instabilitäten und der unzureichenden Machtbasis des Präsidenten. Von aussen betrachtet hat er das aber m.E. bisher ganz gut geschaukelt. Die Mehrzahl der Analysten geht davon aus, dass das IWF Agreement bei den nächsten Reviews (gegen Ende des Jahres) scheitert (nicht wenige haben da aber auch schon bisher falsch gelegen). In jedem Fall sollte man genau beobachten.

Grüße K1
Ecuador Congress to Vote Down Bill Needed For IMF Aid (Update1)

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador`s congress is set to reject President Lucio Gutierrez`s plan to ease restrictions on firing state workers -- a move that political analyst Fernando Bustamante says may prompt the International Monetary Fund to cut the country off from aid.

Lawmakers opposed to the bill, which would also consolidate employee payment into a single salary statement, have enough votes to reject the IMF-backed legislation, according to opposition lawmaker Andres Paez. Legislators postponed the vote from today until tomorrow because there wasn`t a quorum.

``We suggest that the government send a different bill,`` Paez, who heads the labor and social issues committee that considered the bill, said in a telephone interview from Quito.

Hernan Jouve, Gutierrez`s spokesman, declined to comment.

Loss of IMF aid would make the South American country`s efforts to avoid a second debt default in five years more dependent on rising oil prices, said analysts such as Credit Suisse First Boston economist Jan Dehn. Ecuador`s 12 percent bond due 2012 has tumbled 11 cents the past seven weeks to 77.25 cents even as the price of oil, which accounts for 60 percent of government revenue, has surged 30 percent in three months to $32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

``If the oil price falls`` next year to its historic average of $18 a barrel, ``then Ecuador will only just be able to avoid a major problem if it uses every single cent that it has everywhere,`` said Dehn. ``You can get through next year by selling the family silver, but then you will have nothing left.``

The yield on the 2012 bond, a security created in the restructuring after Ecuador`s default in 1999, has risen to 16.94 percent, its highest in four weeks.

Loan Agreement

Implementation of Gutierrez`s civil service bill is critical for future disbursements from the loan agreement -- the country`s only source of foreign credit since its default - said Bustamante, a political science professor at the San Francisco University in Quito. Without passage of law, Ecuador would need to secure a waiver to keep receiving aid in a $1 billion, four- year loan agreement with the IMF, World Bank and other lenders.

``Without this law, the whole program with the IMF is threatened,`` Bustamante said.

Gutierrez, a former military coup leader who was elected in November, promised to reduce payrolls and build up a budget surplus to keep access to international aid and maintain the country`s system of using the U.S. dollar as its currency.

Ecuador, which has about $11 billion in multilateral and restructured debts, will have a budget surplus of about 1.1 percent of its gross domestic product this year, Dehn said. He forecasts the $27 billion economy will grow about 2.5 percent.

Rising Costs

The IMF made trimming payrolls a key point to the loan agreement after the government`s use of the dollar contributed to a doubling of labor costs between the past two years. The IMF estimates that government payroll rose to $2 billion last year from $900 million in 2000.

Those increases, coupled with currency devaluations in countries such as Brazil and Argentina, have cut into the profitability of Ecuadorean industries such as banana, shrimp, coffee and cocoa, Bear Stearns & Co. analyst Jose Cerritelli said in a report.

Facing growing opposition from groups such as native Indians, Gutierrez -- who now dons a business suit instead of the custom-designed military fatigues he wore on the campaign trail - - approved more than $170 million in wage increases for doctors and teachers through next year.

That spending increase also heightens the chances that the IMF will cut off aid to Ecuador this year even though Cerritelli said officials from the Washington-based institution appear to be making extra efforts to support the country after Gutierrez earned the praise of U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow in April. The IMF disbursed $42 million to Ecuador on Friday, just days before today`s congressional vote is likely to put the country out of compliance with the loan agreement.

``The decision seems to be a special effort by the IMF to give Ecuador a break and keep the IMF agreement alive,`` Cerritelli said in a research note. ``Implementation of the IMF program beyond July looks pretty tough.``
Last Updated: August 5, 2003 17:01 EDT
UPDATE - Ecuador president seeks political alliances
Thursday August 7, 3:39 pm ET
By Amy Taxin

(Recasts with president`s comments)

QUITO, Ecuador, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Ecuador President Lucio Gutierrez vowed on Thursday to seek alliances with politicians he once called corrupt to keep his unstable nation`s economy on track after losing vital support in Congress from Indian lawmakers.

ADVERTISEMENT
Gutierrez, a 46-year-old retired army colonel, finds himself virtually alone with just six of 100 seats in a hostile legislature after powerful Indian organizations pulled out of the government on Wednesday over the nation`s IMF loan deal.

Gutierrez told reporters, "We will keep talking with different political parties in Congress. With those who, beyond being from the left or the right, have a clear sense of the country`s objectives."

Ecuador is one of Latin America`s most politically unstable nations and has ousted two of its presidents since 1997. Gutierrez himself gained renown after aiding an Indian uprising in 2000 that toppled then-President Jamil Mahuad.

Analysts say Gutierrez has little choice but to forge ad hoc pacts with the mainstream parties he criticized during last year`s electoral campaign to pass tax and labor bills required under the nation`s International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) program.

"He is at the mercy of pressures and influences," said political analyst Adrian Bonilla, adding that Gutierrez has leaned toward building ties with the center-right Social Christian party in a bid to pass a key labor bill.

"He`s privileged this closeness with the Social Christians but that can be a dangerous relationship... The Social Christians don`t support the president, they just aren`t acting as opposition," Bonilla said.

THREAT OF PROTESTS

Ecuador has had a hard time keeping up with commitments under its $205 million IMF loan, which it needs to pay its debt this year and weather a cash crunch stoked by unpaid bills Gutierrez inherited when he took office in January.

Indians, who are among Ecuador`s poorest citizens but have shown power in numbers, have threatened to lead street protests against Gutierrez`s government if he fails to attend the poor and enacts IMF-required measures like fuel price rises.

They hold 11 seats in Congress that could have been crucial for Gutierrez. The absence of a clear opposition from Indians -- who make up about 25 percent of the population -- could at least have helped him get bills passed, analysts said.

"On balance, these reforms would have been easier to pass with Pachakutik within the government than outside the government," Jan Dehn, emerging market analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York, wrote in a research note.

But Pachakutik, the Indian movement`s political branch, sided against a government-sponsored bill this week and have blasted Gutierrez and his efforts to procure a legislative majority.

"The biggest opposition came from within the government," Interior Minister Felipe Mantilla said in a radio interview.

"You can`t make a majority with one political force. You need a majority, and in the history of the democratic process ... the process has been to seek a majority," Mantilla said.
@k1
hasst Du eigentlich schon einen Link gefunden, der die Hoehe der equadorianischen Devisenreserven und der Verschuldung wiedergibt.
Der Bradynetaccount der solche Infos liefern koennte ist mir etwas zu heftig.
@tofu1 #75

zur Verschuldung folgende Meldung:

"Ecuador`s foreign public debt slips in July
Wednesday September 3, 2:32 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s foreign public debt fell in July to $11.192 billion from $11.239 billion in June, the Central Bank reported on Wednesday.

The Andean nation`s public foreign debt was equivalent to 41.8 percent of gross domestic product in July, the bank said on its Web site.

Ecuador restructured its debt in Brady and Eurobonds in 2000 by issuing new global bonds to reduce it by 40.6 percent after the country defaulted on its debt in 1999."

Grüße K1
Der Abschnitt aus DBLA trifft die momentane Situation ganz gut.

Grüße K1

The IMF mission headed by Bob Traa is due to arrive in Quito today. A prime
focus of the mission Πas already outlined by Traa Πis to evaluate the current
political situation. The Fund is clearly becoming increasingly concerned about
the continued delays in meeting structural performance criteria under the
current standby programme (see our IMF Tracker dated 27 th August for
further details).
At the same time, the IMF can hardly accuse Gutierrez of a lack of a political
effort. Indeed, it is precisely because Gutierrez has tried to adhere closely to
the Fund line that it is has upset its original support base (Pachakutic) - and is
now scrambling to patch together a fresh informal coalition. For this reason,
we consider it unlikely that the Fund will cut Ecuador completely adrift. The
structure of Ecuador™s debt is also such that it is official creditors who have
the most at stake over the next few years.
Nonetheless, a difficult period undoubtedly lies ahead. Unless Gutierrez
makes a rapid breakthrough in gaining new political support, it appears likely
that the next IMF tranche (of US$41m) in September will be delayed for at
least a month Πand quite possibly longer. But in the end we believe the IMF
will continue to show flexibility. The alternative, of allowing of a major allowing
political crisis to develop with a potential ousting of Gutierrez, is something
that both the multilaterals and the US State department will be very keen to
avoid.
@K1 Danke.Das ist genau das was ich suchte.
Hatte zwar die Seite der Zentralbank auch gefunden aber mangels Spanischkenntnissen nicht mehr.
Immerhin wurde die Verschuldung um 200 Millionen in den letzten 6 Monaten abgebaut.
Das ist bei einem Oelpreis von 30$ zwar nicht berauschend aber besser als gar nichts.
Sollte der Oelpreis fuer mehr als 2 Monate unter 25$ fallen, sollte das ein Verkaufsignal fuer Ecuador Anleihen sein.
ich weiss wirklich nicht was an der Bonitaet von Equador und vielen anderen Laendern so toll ist.



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Fondsmanager Michael Roche von der Fondsgesellschaft HSBC Asset Management ist zuversichtlich für die künftige Entwicklung von Schwellenländern. Roche setzt mit seinem HSBC Global Emerging Markets Bond (WKN 930 419) vor allem auf spekulative Anleihen aus Brasilien und Ekuador. „Die beiden High-Beta-Länder besitzen großes Potenzial und dürften von der positiven Entwicklung der Märkte am meisten profitieren“, so der Fondsmanager in einer Telefonkonferenz.

Der positive Ausblick von Michael Roche für die Schwellenländer liegt vor allem an ihrer gestiegenen Kreditwürdigkeit: „Ihre Bonität war noch nie so gut bewertet wie heute“, so der Fondsmanager. Die Rating-Agentur Standard & Poor’s (S&P) gab Ende Juli mehr als einem Drittel (35,13 Prozent) der Schwellenländer ein Rating im Bereich Investment Grade. Im Juli 1998 lag die Zahl nur bei 9 Prozent. „Für die gute Bewertung waren vor allem wirtschaftpolitische Reformen, gestiegene Direktinvestitionen und bessere Rahmenbedingungen für den Kapitalmarkt in den Schwellenländern ausschlaggebend“, so Roche weiter.
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Ecuador`s New Oil Pipeline Running More Than Half Empty
Wednesday September 24, 10:26 pm ET
By Mike Esterl, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A major new oil pipeline is up and running in Ecuador - albeit with less traffic than originally forecast as crude output stalls in the politically volatile country.

The 500-kilometer pipeline has been transporting 160,000 to 170,000 barrels a day since starting operations on Sept. 5, Bernardo Tobar, the president of OCP, the international consortium that built it, said Wednesday.

That level should continue for the next four or five months, before possibly rising to around 250,000 b/d by the end of 2004, Tobar told a small group of reporters.

That`s down from initial estimates by OCP in 2001, when construction on the $ 1.4 billion project began, that the pipeline would transport 300,000 b/d by the end of 2003. It`s also "difficult" to predict when the new pipeline, which complements the state-owned Sote pipeline, will be flowing at its full capacity of 450,000 b/d, Tobar said.

With oil sector investments on hold, Ecuador`s government last week lowered its output target by 4.6% to 144.8 million barrels - or 396,712 b/d - for 2003, slightly below 2002 output levels as it flirts with 10-year lows.

President Lucio Gutierrez and Energy Minister Carlos Arboleda met with officials from foreign oil companies in Manhattan on Wednesday, trying to ensure that output doesn`t shrink more.

"We need your investment because, simply, we do not have the money," Arboleda told an audience of U.S. oil executives during a presentation hosted by the Ecuadorean American Association.

State-owned Petroecuador still produces more than half of the Andean country`s oil output, despite a new constitution in 1998 that rolled back many restrictions on private-sector investment.

Gutierrez said he hopes to unveil new guidelines allowing foreign firms to bid on a new batch of oil fields in the next 60 days, adding that Chinese oil companies voiced "great interest" in investing in Ecuador during a recent government roadshow to the Asian country.

"Ecuador is one of the best places in the world for investment," he told U.S. oil executives, noting the country`s falling inflation while stressing his administration`s commitment to the rule of law and increased transparency.

Local opposition to a greater role by foreign investors in Ecuadorean oil fields remains stiff, though, with Petroecuador`s oil workers staging a lengthy strike earlier this year.

Gutierrez has seen his popular support plummet since stepping into the presidency in mid-January, making it increasingly difficult to push reforms through a fractious Congress.

The International Monetary Fund, concerned by flagging momentum for economic reforms, has put new loan disbursements for Ecuador on hold and the rating agency Standard & Poor`s cut its outlook on the Andean country`s creditworthiness last week after citing a "lack of clarity" on the policy front.

OCP`s Tobar, who estimated that $6 billion to $12 billion in investments are needed to double the country`s crude output, said foreign companies want to see a more stable environment before putting down new money.

"I think down the line in Ecuador, the government needs to turn speech into actual action," he said after Gutierrez addressed investors.

In addition to waiting for rules on bidding for exploration and development contracts, foreign oil companies are locked in a legal dispute over value-added- tax payments dating back to August 2001, when the government suspended tax rebates to the oil sector. The amount under dispute has risen to around $220 million, according to Tobar.

The OCP consortium, which has rights to the new pipeline for 20 years before it hands the keys over to Ecuador`s government, is comprised of seven multinationals, including Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:OXY - News) of the U.S., Spain`s Repsol YPF SA , Canada`s Encana Corp. (NYSE:ECA - News) and Italy`s ENI SpA .

The companies participating in the consortium are responsible for more than 90% of total private sector investments in Ecuador`s oil industry, according to Tobar.

Clouding the new pipeline`s near-term prospects, local media has reported that officials at Petroecuador plan to continue transporting all of their crude along the older Sote pipeline.

Those reports are surfacing despite government assurances that the OCP will transport heavy crude while the Sote increasingly will focus on moving light crude. Until now, the Sote mixed both types of crude when transporting oil.

"Probably the president has to make sure Petroecuador follows his policies," said Tobar, adding that the state-owned company "is not being very cooperative" with OCP.

-By Mike Esterl, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4026; mike.esterl@dowjones.com
Fitch revises Ecuador`s outlook to stable from neg
Thursday September 25, 2:43 pm ET

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Fitch Revises Ecuador`s Outlook to Stable; Affs `CCC+` Rtg

NEW YORK, Sept 25 - Fitch Ratings (News) today revised the Rating Outlook on Ecuador`s sovereign ratings to Stable from Positive, on signs of fiscal slippage that could increase pressures on the government`s already fragile liquidity position. The long-term foreign currency rating was affirmed at `CCC+`, and the short-term foreign currency rating at `C`. Fitch had placed the Ecuador ratings on Positive Outlook in April following the government`s commitment to an aggressive list of reforms and performance criteria under a new IMF program. Since then, however, progress on reforms has been slow and fiscal targets have been missed. Authorities recently announced a reduction in the 2003 and 2004 non-financial public sector surplus targets to 1.5% of GDP for both years from 1.9% and 2.2%, respectively -below the agreed levels with the Fund. The change was attributed to a slowdown in the economy. Unbudgeted mid-year increases in payroll and social security expenditures clearly contributed to the revision. Economic growth, stable since the 1999-2000 financial crisis and default, is now decelerating, in part because of concerns about the political feasibility of further reform to maintain competitiveness in the context of full dollarization. Though there has been some fiscal slippage and little progress on reform, the government has run consistent fiscal surpluses on a cash basis, growth has remained positive, and debt ratios have improved. Also public debt -which Fitch expects to reach about 60% of GDP this year- has declined in relation to GDP primarily because of real exchange rate appreciation and economic growth. In spite of favorable indicators, the rating is currently constrained at `CCC+` by Ecuador`s weak external and fiscal liquidity, political risks, concerns about willingness based on past default, and the more recent generation of arrears to suppliers, employees, and official creditors. Fitch`s external liquidity indicator for the Ecuador is 39%, lower than all other `B` range credits, and considerably lower than the 136% median for `B`s. Tight liquidity caused the sovereign to incur arrears to official creditors last year and early this year. Should upcoming IMF disbursement be pushed back significantly, the likelihood of payment delays to official and bond creditors would increase.
Ecuador

Victory for Gutierrez in Congress Victory for Gutierrez in Congress Victory for Gutierrez in Congress Victory for Gutierrez in Congress
Congress yesterday passed the civil service reform bill.This represents a major triumph for the gov-
ernment.It is one of the key structural reforms demanded by the IMF.

The government managed to garner sufficient support,despite the strong opposition of left-of-center
parties.The bill was approved by 53 of the 100 Congress members.Crucially,the measure received
backing from the right-of-center PSC-the largest party in Congress,with one quarter of the seats.How-
ever,there were continuing demonstrations against the reform outside of Congress yesterday.Miguel
Garcia,president of the public servants workers`union said that he would be asking his members to
strike on Monday.

There was some watering down.The ceiling for severance pay was raised to US$30,000,versus the
US$15,000 limit proposed by the government.Nonetheless,we believe that the IM will adopt a flexible
approach to this watering down – just as it did in the case of the customs reform earlier this year.

The next key structural reform is the tax reform.This looks even more problematic than the labor re-
form,in terms of the political passions that it raises.Nonetheless,we would expect the IM to push back
the deadline for passage of the tax reform into next year (it is currently scheduled for approval by the end
of November,but has not yet been presented to Congress).

This means that,if the government can satisfy the und on other aspects of the program,the delayed
second review could take place in late-October/early November.This would then allow for the next
US$42mn disbursement to be made by December at the latest.

Fitch lowers outlook from positive to stable itch lowers outlook from positive to stable itch lowers outlook from positive to stable itch lowers outlook from positive to stable
Ironically,on a day when the news flow out of Ecuador was positive,itch decided to lower the out-
look on sovereign debt from positive to stable.As the reason,itch cited the recent signs of fiscal slip-
page,which it said could put increased pressure on an already-fragile liquidity position.The move mir-
rors a similar action by S&P on 18th September.

dbla
Ecuador

CB indicates that debt buybacks could begin this year
According to Central Bank president Mauricio Yepez,“the mechanisms are in place ” for Ecuador to
commence debt buybacks before the end of this year.

A portion of the revenues from the new OCP pipe-
line will be channeled to the FEIREP oil stabilization fund.In turn,70%of these monies will be available
for retiring the country`s international global bonds or internal debt.Yepez gave no date for when such
buybacks could take place,or indeed how much the fund will receive in 2003.For 2004 the government
estimates that the fund will receive US$292mn.But this latter amount is only likely to be achieved if reve-
nues from all of Petroecuador ’s exports of heavy oil go into FEIREP

.At the moment this is in doubt –al-
though yesterday,Yepez said that as far as he was concerned all the heavy crude should go through the
pipeline.
Separately,Yepez indicated that there will be changes to the IMF program schedule.One option
could be to merge the second and third reviews of the country`s program and complete them jointly by
the end of December or early January.Another option would be to extend the current agreement through
the end of next year.He said that a decision will not be taken until after meetings with the IMF next
month.Minister of Finance Mauricio Pozo is due to visit ashington in the second week of November.An
IMF mission will then arrive in Quito in the second half of the month.

www.dbla.de
Ich wollte nur mal darauf hinweisen, dass die 526864 (ECU30) mittlerweile auch in Düsseldorf gehandelt wird, und dass die Kursstellung dort wesentlich besser ist als in Berlin.

Zur Zeit bspw:

Düsseldorf 69,50G / 70,75B
Berlin 69,00G / 71,00B

Es bietet sich daher an in Düsseldorf zu handeln.

Grüße K1
UPDATE - IMF says Ecuador economic prospects favorable
Thursday November 20, 12:14 pm ET

(Adds more details)

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that economic prospects for Ecuador were favorable, with growth boosted by a new oil pipeline and inflation declining.

IMF spokesman Tom Dawson said senior Ecuadorean finance officials had visited the fund this week, and that talks made progress in defining targets to complete a second assessment of the country`s economy.

A successful review would see the IMF disburse another payment to Ecuador under a $205 million loan program approved in March to sustain investor confidence and keep the budget on track.

"We have agreed on a number of steps in the fiscal and reform areas that authorities will try and put in place by the year end," Dawson told a regular press briefing.

He said reforms entailed the civil service, taxes, establishing private management in the electricity and telephone enterprises and liquidating some closed financial institutions.

"Overall the talks were quite positive and we look forward to further progress being made by the authorities in the weeks ahead to strengthen their program," he said.

He said an IMF team would probably visit the capital Quito in January.

In the next few weeks officials will prepare options for strengthening the 2004 fiscal outlook as well as ensuring adequate financing, he said.
Die Ecu12 läuft stramm auf die 100 zu. Der Ölpreis hilft, die durchaus vorhandene politische Unsicherheit bremst.



Grüße K1

Ecuador sends new labor reforms to Congress
Wednesday December 17, 1:38 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s President Lucio Gutierrez sent Congress a package of reforms to an IMF-required labor law to rectify flaws that made it tough to enforce, a senior lawmaker said on Wednesday.

This Andean nation`s 100-member Congress passed the controversial labor law in September. The law aims to cap a rising public sector wage bill by setting strict rules for public sector workers and simplifying a complex salary structure.

But Gutierrez later decided that the law that was passed left several loopholes that could make it tough to enforce under the nation`s $205 million International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) loan, which is vital for Ecuador to repay its foreign debt.

The president sent the latest reforms late Tuesday to ensure that the law prevents public sector workers from returning to their former jobs after retirement and clear up some murky wording regarding a ceiling for indemnity pay.

Congress has 30 days for debate. Andres Paez, who chairs the legislature`s labor committee, said he would plow ahead on the project even though Congress is in recess until Jan. 6.

"The government has an urgency to fulfill certain reforms that have been imposed by the Fund and this is part of the agreement," said Paez of the opposition`s Democratic Left party. Congress will hold its first debate on Jan. 7.

Congress, where Gutierrez has little outright support, must quickly handle the reforms to move on to an IMF-required tax reform bill. The IMF is expected to review Ecuador`s progress under its loan deal in January.
Emerging Debt-Can Ecuador keep rising in 2004?
Tuesday December 30, 3:26 pm ET
By Hugh Bronstein

NEW YORK, Dec 30 (Reuters) - As action in the emerging debt market slowed to a year-end trickle on Tuesday, Wall Street investors evaluated Ecuador`s 2004 financial prospects in light of the country`s slow pace of opening its oil sector to foreign investors.

Analysts want to know if the sovereign bonds of the South American nation can keep rising after surprising many with heart-thumping total returns of 99.5 percent in 2003, compared to the 28.6 percent earned by the rest of the market on J.P. Morgan`s Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (11EMJ).

The answer is yes, according to Jan Dehn, an emerging market analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, as oil companies operating in Ecuador will provide the government with a healthy stream of tax revenue.

Dehn also said he also expects Ecuador to start buying back some of its internationally held sovereign bonds sometime toward the end of the first quarter, which should squeeze debt prices higher.

Jose Cerritelli, a Bear Stearns debt strategist, said he too sees additional upside in Ecuador bonds, calling the country`s high spread, or risk premium, "a huge temptation."

With the country`s spreads at 806 basis points over comparable U.S. Treasuries, well above an emerging market average of 418 basis points, Ecuador rewards its bondholders with relatively high interest payments.

But even as Ecuador benefits from these factors and the benefits of the country having adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency, problems remain in public oil sector.

Ecuador on Monday extended by two months the deadline for companies to bid for 20-year operating licenses for four oilfields it hopes will help fuel economic growth over the next few years.

"This is a setback, though not a hugely surprising one," Dehn said.

"The most direct source of revenue for the government is oil sales and those sales are contracting by 5 to 8 percent a year," he added. "The delay in the bidding is driven by concerns over the legal framework governing the oil sector in Ecuador."

Wall Street wants to see Ecuador pass a bill now pending in Congress that would provide clear rules governing joint ventures and other investments in the country`s oil sector.

"If the hydrocarbon law is passed, you will see greater confidence on the part of private oil companies investing in Ecuador," Dehn said.

Energy Minister Carlos Arboleda said the new, March 23 deadline would give more time for companies to prepare their proposals for the four Amazon fields, with reserves of 905 million barrels.


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Reuters
Emerging debt-Ecuador outperforms sluggish market
Tuesday January 20, 1:50 pm ET

NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Bolstered by strong oil exports and hope of a new bond issue, Ecuador sovereign debt prices rose on Tuesday while the rest of the market succumbed to a wave of hedge fund selling, traders said.

Total returns dipped 0.28 percent marketwide, according to JP Morgan`s Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus.

"We have seen some speculative accounts selling. I would attribute the down-trade to that," said Paul Masco, head of emerging market trading at Salomon Smith Barney.

Ecuador bucked the trend with a total return rise of 0.45 percent. The country`s spreads have narrowed to 728 basis points from 1801 at the start of last year, marking a sharp decrease in the perception of risk as measured against safe-haven U.S. Treasury bonds.

"Spreads are coming down in Ecuador to the point where it is now realistic to envision this country returning to the international capital markets later this year," said Jose Cerritelli, a debt strategist at Bear Stearns.

"Once they are able to access the market, the government will be able to retire short dated debt, like the bonds due 2012, and issue longer-dated paper. This will improve Ecuador`s debt profile and attract new investors," he said.

Ecuador defaulted on its Brady and Eurobond debt during a severe economic crisis in 1999.

"We hope we can return (to capital markets) in 2004," Ecuador Central Bank president Mauricio Yepez told reporters on Tuesday. He did not specify what conditions the country needed in order to issue new bonds.

President Lucio Gutierrez has maintained Ecuador`s lending program with the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) and plans to draw new oil investments to expand the economy, which is expected to grow 5.7 percent in 2004.

Meanwhile, the high price of oil, Ecuador`s main export, has increased government revenue.
Ecuador says no need to cut fuel subsidy for IMF
Thursday January 29, 8:17 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo on Thursday said he won`t eliminate a costly fuel subsidy this year and doesn`t need to in order to sustain vital aid from the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) .

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"In our original letter (of intent), as you know, this was expected. Now, based on our negotiations, this doesn`t form part of what Ecuador needs to do," Pozo told reporters after returning from talks this week in Washington with the lender.

The Andean nation is relying on a $205 million IMF loan program signed last March to help sustain investor confidence, but has fallen behind schedule in adopting key reforms.

Originally, the country was supposed to eliminate a $200 million a year subsidy for cooking gas that is popular with the poor and Indian groups who have fought for its continuation, even though it mainly benefits the nation`s wealthy.

Ecuador hopes to extend its IMF loan program until the end of the year but won`t seek more money from the lender. Instead it plans to issue new debt later this year. "There`s no more money because the country has financing options," Pozo said.

An IMF mission will travel to Quito next month to review 2003 economic data and the nation`s progress under the loan.

Removing the cooking gas clause from the IMF program could spell some relief for President Lucio Gutierrez from political opposition led by powerful Indian organizations, which have threatened to protest if he axed the popular subsidy.
UPDATE - Moody`s lifts Ecuador ratings on fiscal stability
Tuesday February 24, 2:19 pm ET

NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Moody`s Investors Service (News - Websites) on Tuesday upgraded Ecuador`s ratings, citing better government fiscal management, giving a fresh boost to a favorite pick of emerging market sovereign bond investors.

The ratings agency said it upgraded Ecuador`s country ceiling for foreign currency bonds and notes to Caa1 from Caa2 and the foreign currency bank deposit ceiling to Caa2 from Caa3.

Ecuador has been one of the strongest performers during an extended emerging market sovereign bond rally. Investors enjoyed total returns of more than 100 percent in 2003.

Ecuador`s global 30(ECUGLB30=RR), the country`s benchmark sovereign bond, rose 1.188 to bid 83.188 on the Moody`s upgrade, but traders did not expect much more of a rise.

"From here I see fairly limited upside because Ecuador has already been the market`s strongest performer over the last year and a half," said a trader.

Moody`s said the ceiling upgrades had lifted the ratings for Ecuadorean government foreign-currency bonds to Caa1 from Caa2 and the ratings for local currency government bonds to B3 from Caa1. It said the outlook for all ratings was stable.

The agency said Ecuador`s ratings were constrained by potential risks derived from dollarization, which it said put a monetary straitjacket on the government, limiting its ability to take action during economic or political shocks.
Ecuador to Repurchase 2012 Bonds, May Sell New Bonds (Correct)

By Peter Wilson

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador said it will seek to repurchase some of its bonds that mature in 2012, exercising a call option in May or November.

Ecuadorean Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo said last night after a presentation before the Caracas-based Andean Development Corp. that the country would fund the repurchase with resources from its oil fund or from the proceeds of new bond sales. The country has $1.25 billion in the 2012 bonds, and the call option is triggered when the bonds trade at above par.

``We are trying to finish all of the legal requirements by March 31, as we have to give a 45-day notice,`` Pozo said. ``If we finish by then, we will do so (in May.) If not, we will wait for the next date, which is November.``

Ecuador, which defaulted on its bonds in 1999, is trying to take advantage of its improving economy, to spread out debt payments. Moody`s Investors Service raised the country`s debt rating one level in February after the government kept spending in check, helping ease the debt burden.

The government`s bond due 2012 fell 0.50 cent on the dollar to 101.75, pushing its yield up to 11.9 percent at 9 a.m. New York time, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

Pozo said the country may seek to sell bonds in the second half of the year. Pozo gave no figures for the amount of bonds that could be repurchased, or sold.

Proceeds from a bond sale ``could be used to cover repurchases, or cover the government`s budget,`` he said.
@Istanbul

bisher sind die 12er und die 30er ziemlich genau gleich gelaufen seitdem ich die Anleihen zu verschiedenen Zeitpunkten gekauft habe (die 12er durch die höhere lfd. Verzinsung und die 30er durch die stärkeren Kursgewinne).

Ursprünglich war die 12er die risikoreichere und agressivere Anleihe, die 30er die weniger risikoreichere (auch wegen der Konstruktion im Defaultfall).

Mittlerweile hat sich das Profil verändert, denn auf Grund der Zinsentwicklung und der Callmöglichkeit der 12er ist das Potenzial der 12er nach oben und unten eher beschränkt, während der Hebel bei der 30er deutlich grösser ist.

Zu Anfang des Threads hätte ich übrigens nicht gedacht, dass der Call überhaupt mal ein Thema werden könnte ... (Kurs damals 45).

Grüße K1
Ist ja gut.

Die Option muss man vom Anleihenwert der 12er abziehen. Wie hoch der faire Wert einer solchen Option ist, streiten sich die Gelehrten (siehe Stada 2015). Imho wird er generell massiv unterschätzt. Zu Kursen um 45 war er allerdings sicher nicht so wichtig.

Dazu kommt der Hebel der Laufzeit. Bei einer Rendite von um die 9% für Ecuador, wird die 30er die 12er auch ohne Option überholen. Von daher ist sie volatiler und risikoreicher. Egal, sowieso Elfenbeinturm-Gelaber jetzt.
Neenee, ist kein Elfenbeinturmgelabere. Der Emittent (also Ecuador) kann ja die Anleihe kündigen. D.h. er kann die ECU12, die im Moment bei leicht über 100 notiert (teilweise) zurückführen (zu 100) und ggf. durch eine Anleihe mit bspw. 11% billiger refinanzieren.

Bei der ECU30er ist das auch ein ernst zu nehmendes Problem, denn wenn der Zins, den Ecuador am Kapitalmarkt zahlen muss unter 10% fällt, dann wird auch die 30er gekündigt werden (im Moment noch keine Gefahr, da durch den Step-up der Kupons ja noch deutlich unter 10% liegt). Bis zur Kündigung gibt es aber eben auch nur die niedrigere laufende Verzinsung - insofern ist die Renditeberechnung auf Endfälligkeit nur eingeschränkt aussagekräftig.

Die ECU30 hat also schon einen grösseren Hebel als die ECU12, aber eben nur relativ.

Grüße K1
Wie immer dürftest Du recht haben. Vor der Rückzahlung der 30er schützt etwas das zur 12er doppelte Volumen. Aber auch nicht lange, wenn es so weiter geht.

Eigentlich wär die Refinanzierung einer solchen Anleihe ein gefundens Fressen für einen Hedge-Fonds im Ölbereich. Bin mal gespannt, wieviel der 12er sie refinanziert kriegen - und von wem.
Ecuador tax receipts up 19.2 pct in March
Wednesday April 14, 5:34 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, April 14 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean tax collection rose 19.2 percent in March compared with a year ago, helping the government catch up to its quarterly target for receipts, the Internal Revenue Service said on Wednesday.

The Andean nation`s net collection, which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits, was $257.3 million in March, the Service said in a monthly report.

Receipts for Ecuador`s main tax, a 12 percent value added tax, rose 21.2 percent to $159.8 million in March compared with a year ago, the report said.

In the first quarter of 2004, Ecuador received $741.6 million in taxes, surpassing its $739.6 million target for the period, according to the report.

Ecuador expects to receive $3.218 billion in taxes in 2004.
Im Rahmen der allgemeinen EM Marktschwäche und den Entwicklungen in Ecuador im speziellen erledigt sich das mit den Callüberlegungen mal wieder ;-)

Ecuador to struggle for new IMF loan, analysts say
Tuesday April 20, 7:15 pm ET
By Amy Taxin


QUITO, Ecuador, April 20 (Reuters) - Ecuador will find it difficult to sign a new International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) loan program as political support for reform fades and pressure on government spending rises, analysts said on Tuesday.
For 13 months, the Andean nation has held a $205 million IMF loan program that effectively ends on Tuesday. The government has vowed to seek a new loan for about $121 million to sustain investor confidence after failing to meet the program`s requirements.

Now analysts say a question mark hovers over Ecuador`s ability to win a new deal. President Lucio Gutierrez has less support for Congressional reforms than when he took office in January 2003 and faces growing pressure from Ecuadoreans to spend government cash on better wages and development aid.

"It`s nearly impossible to reach a new agreement with the IMF," said Alfredo Arizaga of economic and business consultancy Quantum in Quito and a former finance minister. "The political space doesn`t exist."

Ecuador is striving to regain investors` confidence after defaulting on Brady and Eurobond debt in 1999. The country restructured that debt a year later by issuing new bonds.

Analysts said Ecuador is lucky to sustain broad political support from Washington D.C. for a program, which makes the IMF more flexible than it might be with a nation that has repeatedly failed to fulfill requirements.

"It (the new loan) matters tremendously because the IMF program serves as a policy guide for the government. In the absence of that kind of policy agenda for the government, it is hard for them to gain support in Congress," said Whitney Kane Gomez, an emerging markets analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Under the program about to end, Ecuador was supposed to hire private companies to run state electric and telephone companies and pass a broad tax reform. It did none of that.

One area, however, where Ecuador has shown progress is fiscal control. Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo, favored by financial markets, clamped down on spending last year to slash a hefty stack of arrears that was inherited by Gutierrez.

But there is renewed pressure on government spending as political parties become increasingly critical of Gutierrez and appear less likely to back his reforms in Congress and state workers demand raises in public sector wages.

"I think it`s going to be more and more difficult and that`s why you`re beginning to see more pressure on the spending side," said Jose Barrionuevo, director of emerging markets strategy at Barclays Capital.

This week, Labor Minister Raul Izurieta said the government plans to raise state salaries in July and is studying reforms to reduce the amount of cash allotted to buyback debt in order to raise development spending.

Pozo said he would travel to Washington next week to meet with IMF officials. "We are seeking a new agreement," he told reporters on Tuesday.

Rising public spending poses a threat to Ecuador`s mid-term economic stability as well as the prospects for a new IMF loan, analysts said. The loan is considered crucial to sustain confidence and an estimated $300 million in multilateral credits.
Dass der langanhaltende Disput gelöst wurde ist ganz gut.

Grüße K1

Ecuador says clears trade disputes with U.S. firms
Friday April 23, 11:49 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, April 23 (Reuters) - Ecuador said on Friday it had cleared outstanding disputes with U.S. companies to sustain a series of trade preferences and start talks next month for a free trade agreement with the United States.

"The Ecuadorean government has reached agreements pending on problems and disputes related to eligibility criteria for the Andean trade benefits," the trade ministry said in a statement late on Friday.

Ecuador needs approval from the U.S. Trade Representative on the agreements in order to sustain a series of trade preferences that were awarded to the Andean nation and three others to reward their fight against the illegal drugs trade.

Ecuador also hopes the accords clear the path to start negotiating a free trade agreement with Washington on May 18 along with its neighbors Colombia and Peru.

The disputes with Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK - News), BellSouth Corp. (NYSE:BLS - News) and IBM Corp. (NYSE:IBM - News) were over debts totaling more than $10 million. The ministry said a payment plan had been worked out to resolve the problem.
Aber das Ecuador bei dem Ölpreis immer noch Schwierigkeiten hat, den IWF-Zahlungen nachzukommen, finde ich überhaupt nicht gut.

Bei den Vennies versickert zwar auch immer einiges von den Windfall-Profits, aber der hohe Ölpreis macht sich sehr wohl positiv bemerkbar. Bei den Guanos stinkt hingegen irgendwas ganz gewaltig (sagt einer, der seine Gewinne bereits bei 56 realisiert hat :( )
@K1
das stoert mich auch gewaltig bei den Ecuadories.
Irgendwie sind da immer andere Umstaende Schuld, dass alles nicht so klappt wie geplant.
Mal ist es eine kaputte Pipeline, dann sind es wieder die Indianer nur bei der Regierung selber ist alles im Lot.
@tofu1 & n-n-z

klar die Ecuadorianer sind nicht gerade die Musterschüler was die geordnete Haushaltsführung angeht - es geht also tatsächlich noch schlechter als bei Hans Eichel ;-)))

Die fehlende Mehrheit im Parlament und der Druck der Masse machen das geordnete regieren auch nicht gerade leichter. Auf der anderen Seite sollte man erwarten, dass bei den Ölpreisen eigentlich nichts schief gehen kann.

Wie dem auch sei, ich habe einen Großteil meine 12er in die 30er gewechselt (Schnitt 88 zu 65 ab). Die haben jetzt eine relativ bessere Absicherung nach unten und höheres Potenzial nach oben.

Grüße K1
Emerging debt-Recovery fades but Ecuador surges
Wednesday May 12, 4:45 pm ET
By Walter Brandimarte

SAO PAULO, Brazil, May 12 (Reuters) - Emerging nations` debt traded flat on Wednesday after a one-day rally as investors waited on U.S. inflation data for clues on the timing of an expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

But oil-producer Ecuador`s bonds, recently battered by U.S. rate hike fears, posted strong gains for the second consecutive session as oil prices neared a record high.

The U.S. producer price index will be announced on Thursday, followed by the consumer price Index on Friday.

Analysts say the data will provide an important clue on how large the next interest rate hike will be in the world`s biggest economy, a move likely to take the shine off riskier emerging market debt by boosting the yields of U.S. assets.

The emerging debt market price drop has led some to consider some bonds good value although investors are wary about buying again for fear a crashing market would blow out emerging spreads, making borrowing more expensive.

"We`re talking to many investors in emerging markets; everyone has increased cash positions and a lot of people agree that bonds are cheap right now," said Luis Oganes, a sovereign strategist at JP Morgan.

"But no one is willing to pull the trigger just yet. Everyone is willing to see the volatility in global markets come down a little more and (is wondering) what the next Fed move is going to be."

Brazil`s bonds led the downturn after rising more than 2 percent in terms of total returns on Tuesday, according to JP Morgan`s Emerging Market Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) (11EMJ).

The nation`s highly traded Global 40 bonds (BRAGLB40=RR) fell 1.063 to bid 85.375 at a yield of 12.902 percent while the C Bonds (BRAZILC=RR) were 0.501 weaker to bid 87.813 at a yield of 11.415 percent.

Total returns for the whole market were 0.14 percent lower according to the EMBI+.

GAMBLING ON ECUADOR

Oil prices approaching $41 a barrel extended a technical rebound in Ecuador bonds that started on Tuesday, when total returns for the nation rose 4.5 percent, although they remained 12.8 percent lower year-to-date.

Ecuador`s Global 12 bonds (ECUGLB12=RR), seen as a benchmark for the country, rose 3.000 on Wednesday to bid 86.500 at a yield of 15.277 percent, before sliding back to be up 1.500 at a bid of 85.000, yielding 15.686.

"Oil prices are really favorable to Ecuador as it is a big oil exporter", said Gustavo Rangel, an emerging market strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. "This year the country is expected to grow more than five percent, and a bulk of that is due to oil exports."

Rangel said Ecuador was in a comfortable financing position, as unlike market heavyweight Brazil, it does not need to issue new debt in the international market this year.

But analysts said the country is still extremely vulnerable to turbulence as uncertainty lingers over the renewal of an International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) agreement.

Neither will rumors of Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo`s resignation die down. Pozo is seen as a key supporter of the fiscal discipline the IMF demands.
@k1
beim aktuellen Oelpreis sollte da nicht viel schiefgehen.
Die Frage ist nur, wie lange bleibt der so hoch.
Bei den Preisen duerfte doch wieder alle Oelfirmen Man und Maus fuer NeuBohrungen mobilisieren und das duerfte über kurz oder lang fuer zusaetzliches Angebot sorgen.
Persoenlich halte ich ja das kleine Zubrot (Gratisanleihen) was es bei der ECU 30 im Defaultfall gibt fuer einen Witz.
@K1
nachdem ich heute die aktuellen Zahlen gesehen habe, bin ich bei 73,50 raus.
Das war alles ein bischen wenig.
Die Devisenreserven sind fast wieder auf dem Niveau von vor einem Jahr.
Ich weiss ehrlich gesagt nicht, was die Jungs mit den Oelerloesen machen.
-------------------------------------------------------
Analytical Accounts of the Central Bank
Net Foreign Assets In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 1569.80 1654.30
International Reserves In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 1145.40 1229.10
Other Net Foreign Assets In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 424.40 425.20
Net domestic credit to central government In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 832.70 789.20
Net domestic credit to social security funds In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 -690.90 -681.40
Credit to the private sector In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 17.10 16.90
Credit to the financial system In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 175.60 175.20
Currency in Circulation In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 53.70 53.30
Bank Reserves In Millions of US dollars May/14/04 259.90 281.40
Interest rates(8)
---------------------------------------------------------
@tofu1

die Bedeutung der Devisenreserven in einer dollarisierten Wirtschaft sollte man nicht überbewerten. 1Mrd.$ halte ich für eine so kleine Volkswirtschaft für ok. Gewisse Schwankungen muss man da auch in Kauf nehmen, der Trend zeigt aber m.E. keine problematische Entwicklung an.

Grüße K1

Ecuador dollar reserves up 14.1 pct in week
Tuesday May 25, 4:20 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, May 25 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s reserves of
U.S. dollars rose 14.1 percent to $1.307 billion in the week
ending on May 21, the Central Bank said on Tuesday.
The following table shows reserve levels for Ecuador, which
adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in 2000.

DATE ............ RESERVES
May 21 ............ $1.307 bln
May 14 ............ $1.145 bln
May 7 ............ $1.229 bln
April 30 ............ $1.236 bln
April 23 ............ $1.243 bln
April 16 ............ $1.167 bln
April 8 ............ $1.218 bln
April 2 ............ $1.253 bln
March 26 ............ $1.284 bln
March 19 ............ $1.220 bln
March 12 ............ $1.149 bln
March 5 ............ $1.166 bln
Feb. 27 ............ $1.207 bln
Feb. 20 ............ $1.145 bln
Feb. 13 ............ $1.142 bln
Feb. 6 ............ $1.226 bln
Jan. 31 ............ $1.240 bln
Dec. 31, 2003 ............ $1.160 bln
Dec. 31, 2002 ............ $1.008 bln
@K1
Der aktuelle Kurs von 74 ist doch im Vergleich zur Bra 34 und zur Ven 27 ziemlich ambitioniert.
Ich habe das Gefühl das alle schon den 10% Kupon im Blick haben.
Den gibt es leider aber erst 2006.
Kurz ich denke schon, das wir noch mal die 70 sehen.
Gruss
Tue 1 June, 2004 19:06

QUITO, Ecuador, June 1 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Congress does not have enough votes to depose President Lucio Gutierrez, two senior lawmakers said on Tuesday, despite politicians` talk of wanting to get rid of the unstable country`s elected leader.

Leftist lawmakers have demanded Gutierrez, a 47-year-old retired army colonel, resign over accusations of campaign malpractice and economic policies they say hurt the poor.

In recent weeks, members of Congress have openly discussed the ways to legally depose the president in what is considered one of Latin America`s most politically volatile nations.

But lawmakers admitted on Tuesday that they lack the votes to impeach the president due to the fragmented nature of the 100-member Congress, where the biggest party has less than a quarter of the votes. Gutierrez says he won`t resign.

Guillermo Landazuri, president of Congress and a lawmaker from the opposition`s Democratic Left party, said that while there are constitutional options to remove Gutierrez, "being able to put them in practice is something else."

Congress can impeach the president with two-thirds of votes for either corruption or breach of national security.

Another lawmaker said that Gutierrez does not appear to have committed either of the infractions.

"In a fractured and heterogenous Congress, first, we don`t have the numbers," said Ramiro Rivera of the centrist Popular Democracy party, who is the Legislature`s vice president. "And in my opinion, at this time, there is no clear infraction that the president has committed or may commit."

While the president faces public criticism even from his wife and vice president, Gutierrez insists he will fulfill his promises to tackle poverty and fight corruption and has called on opposition lawmakers to help him to do so.

Since 1997, Ecuador has ousted two of its presidents before their terms were due to end. Gutierrez, who helped topple one of them in a 2000 revolt, should govern until January 2007.

------

Ecuador`s finance minister resigns
Tue 1 June, 2004 19:22

QUITO, Ecuador, June 1 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s Finance Minister Mauricio Pozo resigned on Tuesday and turned over his job to the nation`s top central banker as part of a government plan to maintain fiscal discipline and economic stability.

"We are going to remain firm in our economic program; we are going to remain firm and disciplined in our fiscal management," President Lucio Gutierrez told reporters after announcing Pozo`s resignation and his replacement by Central Bank President Mauricio Yepez.

Pozo, a 45-year-old economist, is a favorite of Wall Street for putting the economy on track after Gutierrez inherited a stack of unpaid bills when he took office in January 2003. But he has also faced criticism from leftist politicians for IMF-backed economic policies they say hurt the poor.

Yepez has been president of the central bank since September 2001 and has negotiated for loan programs from the International Monetary Fund along with Pozo.

------

Der Pozo Rücktritt ist zunächst negativ zu werten. Allerdings wird der Nachfolger, der bisherige Zentralbankchef Mauricio Yepez für eine gewisse Konstanz sorgen (er hat u.a. auch die IWF Vereinbarungen mit ausgehandelt). Da sich einige Teile der Opposition (auch ausserparlamentarisch) ziemlich auf Pozo eingeschossen haben ist eine andere Person vielleicht eher in der Lage die notwendigen Punkte/Reformen vorwärts zu bringen.

Grüße K1
JP Morgan raises Ecuador debt, cuts Venezuela
Tuesday June 8, 11:16 am ET

NEW YORK, June 8 (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan said on Tuesday it upgraded Ecuador`s sovereign debt to marketweight from underweight and lowered Venezuela`s external bonds to marketweight from overweight.

The bank said in a research note that Ecuador`s political situation had calmed down and that President Lucio Gutierrez looked less vulnerable despite seeing his popularity plunge amid calls to resign from opposition lawmakers.

It also said private oil firms in Ecuador seemed "more constructive" about the passage of a hydrocarbons law, the final debate of which starts on Tuesday in Congress.

The government hopes the hydrocarbons reform will clarify the framework for oil investments in order to draw more private investment into the sector.

Ecuador is negotiating a new International Monetary Fund standby loan to help the country tap a series of multilateral credits and work its way back into international debt markets after its 1999 default.

"Prospects for an IMF deal and debt buybacks are still murky, but the financing plans appear manageable," J.P. Morgan said.

The bank said it was lowering exposure to Venezuela to take profits on a rise this month in the country`s bond prices.

The country`s sovereign bond prices ticked higher on Monday after the government announced that it will offer to buy back some six-month dollar notes issued earlier this year.

J.P. Morgan said high oil prices were isolating Venezuela from contagion from market volatility in the near term.

But the investment bank also said it was concerned about "potential schemes" by President Hugo Chavez to dip into the country`s foreign reserves in a bid to win a referendum on his rule through extra spending.

Wall Street is split over how much Venezuelan debt to hold as Chavez prepares for a recall vote that could end the populist leader`s rule that has angered the country`s economic elite.

While investors dislike Chavez`s criticism of the United States and friendship with Cuban President Fidel Castro, they are largely confident of the crude exporter`s ability to continue paying its debts as long as oil prices stay high.

Meanwhile, Citigroup on Tuesday reiterated its overweight recommendation on the country`s external bonds, saying it was likely a recall vote would be held in August.

"This raises the prospect of political transition that could lead to normalization of the Venezuelan economy, which could, in turn, reduce further the risk of a disruption to the servicing of Venezuela`s external debt," it said in a research note.
Ecuador tax collection up 9.4 pct in May on year
Monday June 14, 11:02 am ET

QUITO, Ecuador, June 14 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean tax collection rose 9.4 percent to $245.2 million in May versus the same month of 2003, the country`s Internal Revenue Service reported on Monday.

In May of 2003, net tax collection -- which excludes the voluntary application of tax credits -- was $224.2 million, according to the service`s monthly report.

In the first five months of 2004, tax receipts have surpassed the government`s collection targets by 1.7 percent. Ecuador, which aspires to collect $3.218 billion this year in taxes, has so far received $1.411 billion.

The country`s main Value Added Tax drew in $154.5 million in May 2004 compared with $144.5 million a year earlier. Value Added Tax in Ecuador is 12 percent.
Rückschlag für Gutierrez:

... with the exception of Ecuador, where investors were turned off by Wednesday`s congressional rejection of an oil reform bill that sought increase private investment.

The bill is seen as key to Ecuador`s clinching a new IMF agreement.

"This vote was very negative and very unexpected," said Jan Dehn, an emerging market analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston.

Ecuador total returns dipped 0.5 percent while the rest of the market rose 0.57.

Leftist parties, many of which oppose President Lucio Gutierrez, united to reject the bill, which would have created a contract for private firms to produce crude in Amazon fields currently operated by state oil company Petroecuador.

The defeat of the bill, which was proposed by a former Congressman, could signal a tough road ahead for Gutierrez`s plans to revamp the oil and electricity sectors to raise government revenues and bolster the economy.

Dehn had earlier predicted that Ecuador would clinch a standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund by late August.

"But that could now be delayed as far as October," he said.
Ecuador growth seen slowing to 3-4 pct in 2005
Friday June 18, 6:53 pm ET

QUITO, Ecuador, June 18 (Reuters) - Ecuador`s economy is poised to grow between 3 percent and 4 percent in 2005 as an oil sector boom driving nearly double that growth this year starts to cool down, the Central Bank said on Friday.

Ecuador expects the economy will grow about 5.9 percent this year.

The main reason for the slowdown is that the economy`s oil sector is expected to grow 4.5 percent next year compared with a whopping 27 percent forecast for 2004 as private oil companies raise their production to help fill a new pipeline.

"Private companies will continue to raise (their crude output), but it won`t be as significant of an increase," Fabian Carrillo, the Central Bank`s deputy director of economic studies, told Reuters at a conference on fiscal policy.

Next year would mark Ecuador`s sixth straight year of economic growth since the country adopted the U.S. dollar as its currency in 2000 to battle a severe economic crisis.

Growth has also been buoyed by the construction of the new pipeline, which has more than doubled the oil-dependent nation`s crude transport capacity.

Private oil firms are expected to raise their crude output by 59 percent to 123.9 million barrels this year (338,525 bpd), and another 7.5 percent next year.

Ecuador is expected to produce 201.7 million barrels of oil next year (552,603 bpd), up 4.8 percent from 2004, with about a third coming from state oil company Petroecuador, according to a bank report released at the conference.

Total oil exports, including those from private companies, would reach 136.9 million barrels (375,068 bpd).

Consumer price inflation next year would range between 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent, falling from the 3 percent to 4 percent expected for 2004. Ecuador has been struggling to slow the rise in consumer prices since it adopted the dollar.

On the fiscal side, Ecuador would aim to post a primary surplus in its nonfinancial public sector -- which includes the central government and many state agencies -- of between 4.7 percent and 5.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2005.

That would surpass this year`s target of reporting a primary surplus -- which excludes interest payments on debt -- of between 4 percent and 5 percent for the year.

Taxes, the government`s main source of revenue, would generate $3.474 billion in 2005, up 8 percent from 2004, said Oswaldo Aguirre, Internal Revenue Service planning director, citing economic growth forecasts and improved controls.