JPM-Thread - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[keepitshort]

möchte hier links und Daten zu JPM sammeln

[keepitshort]

hab ich mal von "wavetrader" kopiert
Greenspan muß im Falle der Pleite der zweigrößten Bank Amerika die Märkte mit Liquidität fluten. Aber ein Teil dieser Geldflut wird auch den Goldpreis emporstoßen. Und eine Inflationierung des Dollars, wie sie auch jetzt schon im Gange ist, kann gar nicht am Gold vorbei gehen.

[keepitshort]

JP-Morgan bei www.zealLLc.com
http://www.zealllc.com/2002/jpmgrows.htm


Banking-System-in-trouble bei www.gold-eagle.com/editorials
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/moy072202.html

[konradi]

18:30 Uhr MEZ

- 14 %

[konradi]

18:45

-16 %

[konradi]

http://boerse-go.de/charts2002/AA25639/1307.gif

[keepitshort]

sieht so aus als ob JP-Morgan auf 10 US-$ geht
oder wie im Jahr 1996 alles begann
ab Feb96 ist auch der Goldpreis so stark gefallen
irgendwie merkwürdig

[Spieler0815]

Mal eine vermutlich dumme Frage:
Angenommen, bei JPM "gehen die Lichter aus", so wie bei Worldcom etc., wäre das nicht eher schädlich für den POG ?
Wenn ich richtig informiert bin, sind wir doch immer davon ausgegangen, daß die Shorties sich, wenn denn nun den POG steigt, massiv eindecken müßten.
So viel ich weiß, zählt zu denjenigen Banken, die short bzgl, Gold sind bzw. Gold geliehen haben und zurückgeben müßten, doch auch gerade die JPM, oder nicht.
Wenn die nun aber pleite sind... wer soll dann Gold kaufen müssen.. wer soll sich dann eindecken müssen...
Verhält es sich dann mit dieser Schuld/bzw. Verpflichtung wie mit jeder anderen Forderung auch in einem Konkursverfahren ?
Spieler

[manfred1_I]

Der letzte Rettungsversuch für JPM -jetzt das Gold
in den Keller zu schicken-?

Dürfte auch nicht mehr viel nützen.

[keepitshort]

@Spieler0815

wenn JP-Morgan pleite geht so dürfte das Wellen
wie bei Enron und Worldcom geben.

wenn JP-Morgan die nächsten 6 Monate auf die Pleite
zu geht dann kann JP-Morgan immer weniger am
Gold-Derivaten-Markt agieren
dann hat JP-Jorgan andere Sorgen.

[jeffery2]

@spieler, die Frage ist einfach, aber einleuchtend. Es ist vielleicht billiger und eleganter diesen Bauern zu opfern, als der totale Blackout. Immerhin, dann wären auch die anderen als kritisch angesehenen Derivate flöten, d a s Problem erledigt. Immerhin, der Vertrauensverlust.......?
Aber, ist doch schön zu sehen, wie jetzt über den Wertverfall der Aktienmärkte, wunderbar Geld weggeschmolzen werden kann, immer mit dem Hinweis, tja, selber schuld, sie hätten ja Bonds kaufen können.
J2

[konradi]

Das Wall Street Journal berichtet, dass die Citigroup und JP Morgan über den möglichen Betrug mit Enron mit weiteren Unternehmen zweifelhafte Transaktionen tätigte. Gegen beide Unternehmen laufe laut dem WSJ zur Zeit ein Gerichtsverfahren wegen betrügerischen Machenschaften in der Geschäftsbeziehung mit Enron.

Das WSJ berichtet weiter, dass JP Morgan nebst Enron mit weiteren sieben Unternehmen zweifelhafte Transaktionen durchführte, während die Citigroup 14 Angebote für solche Transaktionen machte, wobei mindestens drei Unternehmen einwilligten.


Analysten von CIBC World Markets stuften heute Barrick Gold, Meridian Gold, Goldcorp und Gold Fields Limited von Buy auf Strong Buy. Die Analysten sehen aufgrund der aktuellen niedrigen Bewertungen und des 2003´er Gold-Kurszieles von 350 Dollar Aufwärtspotential für die Aktien im Sektor. Die Aktien in der Gruppe sollten darüber hinaus von der Unsicherheit im Markt profitieren können.

[konradi]

20:00 MEZ

- 18 %

ist ja wie im krimi hier

Die, JP Morgan, Die ! (Gruß an Sovereign !)

[konradi]

[manfred1_I]

Was sollen jetzt den Anleger machen, die vielleicht
Anleihen oder Optionsscheine von dieser Firma
haben???

[tamara93]

verkaufen !!!!

retten, was noch zu retten ist, die ersten Verluste sind immer noch die kleinsten.

Ich hatte auch mal worldcom und habe die mit ca. 50% Verlust bei 2 US$ verkauft, im Vergleich zum heutigen Kurs war das Klasse!! Ich bin zwar nicht gerade stolz darauf, aber man nennt das Schadensbegrenzung.

[manfred1_I]

Hat nur indirekt was mit JPM zu tun.
ROHSTOFFE

Baring Asset Management (BAM) empfiehlt, den Rohstoffsektor überzugewichten. In der derzeitigen Situation schwacher und turbulenter Aktienmärkte habe sich dieser Sektor als relativ sichere Investition erwiesen, begründete BAM in einer Analyse. Die zyklischen Substanzwerte aus den Branchen Grundstoffe, Metalle, Öl und nicht zuletzt Gold hätten der Abwärtsbewegung der globalen Aktienmärkte in den vergangenen Monaten relativ sicher standgehalten.

[investival]

@Spieler0815, @jeffery2,

JPM als Bauernopfer, zur Derivate-Bereinigung, derweil der Rest der US-Aktien protected werden, auf Deubel komm raus, sogar gegen DAX & Co...
Der Gedanke hat mit dem heutigen Tag irgendwie was Reales, aber es ist mehr als vermessen, eher schon krank zu denken, SO kommen die Märkte wieder ins Laufen.
Vertrauen bringt das nicht, schon gar nicht von Auslandskapital in US-Werte. Auslandskapital wird einen Deubel tun, sich von der Willkür eines US-PPT abhängig zu machen.

hätten ja Bonds kaufen können.
? - Negiert man Aktienanlagen, wäre es das Begräbnis der freien Marktwirtschaft.

Für den Goldpreis hat der Vertrauensaspekt imo mehr Gewicht als die lange bekannte Short-Spekulation. Nicht jeder, der Gold hat, hat DESHALB Gold gekauft, das sind imo eher die wenigsten.

investival

[konradi]

so, zum Abschluß des ereignisreichen Tages hier noch
eine lustige Empfehlung von Hornblower

>>>> VON HEUTE, 23.07.02 <<<

JP Morgan Chase – Trading Buy (Hornblower)


JP Morgan Chase (JPM, 850628, 24,52 USD) – Trading Buy (SL: 23,60 USD)

Die Aktie des Investment- und Brokerhauses JP Morgan Chase konnte sich dem negativen Branchentrend nicht entziehen und markierte gestern ein Drei- Jahres-Tief.
Nach einer Seitwärtsbewegung im Frühjahr brach der Wert massiv ein und unterschritt das im September bei 29,05 USD markierte Tief sowie eine Kreuzunterstützung bei 26,70 USD, die sich aus dem Februartief und einer internen Trendlinie (-0,08 USD/Tag) ableitet. Gestern folgte ein weiterer schwacher Tag, wobei JP Morgan den Handel auf einer weiteren Kreuzunterstützung im Bereich von 24,52 USD beendete.
Diese resultiert aus einer Trendlinie (-0,02 USD/Tag), die die beiden Tiefpunkte vom September 01 und Februar verbindet, sowie einer internen Trendlinie (-0,29 USD/Tag) vom Mai. Diese Unterstützung sollte in Verbindung mit stark überverkauften Indikatoren in den nächsten Tagen für steigende Kurse sorgen.
Der nächste Widerstand liegt in diesem positiven Szenario im Bereich von 26,70 USD (Kreuzwiderstand) und bei 29,05 USD (Septembertief). Die nächste leichte Unterstützung findet die Aktie bei 23,70 USD, dem Tief vom September 1998.
TradingBuy (Stop-Loss: 23,60 USD)

[Juvenile]

also malt nicht direkt immer die übelsten Horrorszenarien an die Wand,
JPM wird nicht so schnell pleite gehen, dat würde einem Crash gleichkommen,
wenn eines der renommiertesten Investmenthäuser der Vereinigten Staaten und
Dow component pleite gehen würde, da würde die Regierung einschreiten und zu schiessen
im schlimmsten falle

dat nennt man too big too fail (zumindest im Finanzsektor, weil Worldcom hat uns anderes gelehrt)

[AlexTheGreat]

Guten Morgen Gentleman,

bzgl. JPM wird es demnächst heißen:

"Too big to BAIL out!"

Man schaue sich nur den gestrigen Tag an:
Verzweifelte Versuche JPM vor dem sicheren Tod zu retten, indem der enge Goldmarkt massiv nach unten manipuliert wurde. Noch reicht´s dafür...
Gleiches bei DOW und Konsorten funktioniert ja zur Zeit schon nicht mehr, Volumina sind zu hoch.

Sicherlich wird JPM "nichts so schnell pleite gehen", so ein gewaltiger Vorgang benötigt seine Zeit.
Allerdings möchte ich an dieser Stelle auf die verheerende Wirkung von Derivaten hinweisen, die einen solchen Prozeß beträchtlich beschleunigen können. Einmal in Gang gesetzt, ist der spiralförmige Vorgang, der beim Auflösen dieser Finanzinstrumente beginnt, kaum noch aufzuhalten; siehe LTCM und die damit verbundenen Kosten und Anstrengungen der FED. JPM ist vom Volumen her aber eine ganz andere Größenordnung und die Goldderivateposition könnte hier, wie schon diskutiert, das "ephische" Ereignis triggern.

Wie heißt es so schön: "Die Geister, die ich rief..."

In diesem Sinne noch einen erfolgreichen Tag

ATG

[antarra]

[keepitshort]

bei JP-Morgan werden die grössenwahnsinnig

JP-Morgan +7,07%
S&P500 -0,5% zum gleichen Zeitpunkt

[Thoemsi]

beim JP Intradaychart wird mir uebel...

[antarra]

Gestern und heute waren Anhörungen vor dem Senat, die sind gut gelaufen.

Dazu Ankündigungen das man eigene Aktien zurück kauft und so schlecht waren die Zahlen nun auch nicht.

Also bis jetzt noch kein Grund ins bodenlose zu fallen.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Cornered Animals
24 July 2002

It`s always darkest before the bottom falls out - JP McGoran

I have a conversation with a geologist friend of mine that usually sounds somewhat the same on days when the gold markets move against us, or our hypothesis. Do not underestimate the power of the government (or its allies) is his wise message. We`ve been having this conversation for years. However, over the past three years, the "house" has in fact been losing. In other words, whatever this power was it is probably less today. A bold statement maybe, but I think true in light of the evidence.
Citigroup JP Morgan

It isn`t necessary to frown on the use of the word manipulation because it is inextricably inferred in any discussion of public policy objectives alone, many of which are so broad in scope we consider them as evidence of the bureaucracy subjugating capitalism. Keynes might well have said capitalism itself was a barbarous relic in this day where governments manage the free market system or the invisible hand, without apparent retribution. For pete`s sake, even highly regarded journalists no less than frequently praise the US government for the management of its economy and currency. How can the word manipulation be frowned upon when governments engage in so much blatant economic management it borders on central planning? Commentators and analysts infer it all the time but never say it.

My friend and I continue to have this conversation nevertheless at higher and higher gold prices, and I expect we`ll have them at higher prices still.

At some point, however, I think market participants will become convinced of the opposite argument - that the government has little control or perhaps even that it is impossible to control markets and sterilize that activity with any degree of ultimate success, at least in terms of the objectives a given policy sets out to accomplish. Why, it`s true, and recorded throughout history. But wouldn`t it be a coup for rational expectations theory if people actually believed it?

They will eventually I suspect though by that time the smart money, whoever they`ll be, will be on the other side of the market because that`ll probably be a sign the bull market is nearing an end, or such is the axiom of contrarian style thinking.

In reality I`d say the smart money will probably be promoting gold stock deals worth nothing at a huge premium. At least that`s how society defines smart money today.

Cynically.

Whether or not there exists a clandestine group of bankers conspiring to suppress the price of gold in order to support the value of the dollar and their own dollar denominated investments, as is logical to presume there would be, how can we describe what has been happening with the price of gold and key economic structures (such as the stock market) since 2000 as anything but a failure of policy implementations, whatever they may be? Obviously, the rout in stock prices and corporate profits can`t be the aim of policy, at least not any kind of policy we`ve ever witnessed.

And I don`t know that bankers with large quantities of dollar investments would have agreed to allow a rally in gold prices and gold shares over the past year and a half, if they had any say in it. Whether they did or didn`t, the rising price of gold probably makes them uncomfortable, particularly if it has been rising due to the reasons we gold bulls claim it is.

Dollar Bounce Hits Gold Hard
Despite the unexpected correction in gold prices on a falling dollar since early June, we contend that the rally which began more than a year ago essentially predicted today`s dollar rout, and we also contend that the activity in dollar and stock markets itself telegraphs further problems for the dollar. A meaningful correction in the price of gold would require a meaningful comeback in the value of the US dollar in our opinion.

Otherwise, Tuesday`s $10 drop is simply another buying opportunity that will prove itself at that point when investors perceive increasingly significant downside to the currency. It`s as simple as that.

On Tuesday, the US dollar jumped 2% against the Euro while simultaneously crashing the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar both today and yesterday. Both currencies were down more than 1.5%, after similar drops Monday. The Canadian dollar sent us an intermediate bear market signal yesterday, and confirmed it today. The CRB fell 1.7% on declines copper, oil, and gold. Copper prices sent us an intermediate bear market signal also.

The chalk marks suggest a short term comeback for the dollar, coupled with a rise in bogus deflation sentiment, unless the bounce is combined with a recovery on Wall Street, in which case it`ll be recovery sentiment. Those are the main factors that are driving the bearish gold market sentiment this week, in our opinion, and over and above the aura of manipulation in the air as a result of the coincidental crash in bank shares yesterday and today.

At any rate, if the selling in gold were coming from any of the known bullion banks it would surprise us in this day when off-balance sheet accounting abuses attract the scrutiny of angry regulators like bees to honey. That wouldn`t mean they`re not selling, just not necessarily from their own accounts. I don`t doubt their resourcefulness on that technical issue. But maybe it shouldn`t surprise us if they were selling right from their own accounts. After all, the overvalued dollar is one reason we`re in this mess in the first place, and if their selling of bullion had anything to do with that (a logical supposition) yet they continue to sustain the same policy then who knows what they could possibly be thinking.

On the ethics and validity of the said policy, we have to ask, what kind of organization of anything continues to do the same thing after it brings negative consequences?

Maybe the kind we really need to worry about. Maybe it`s the kind that resulted in Enron or WorldCom, and I don`t mean that coyingly (if there`s such a word). The comparison will become increasingly valid as one policy after another fails to rig the markets profitably, and the alleged economic managers lose credibility altogether.

It`s the mentality of the operating modus operandi of the bankers that amazes us and is being revealed today, not just in front of the Congress, but also in the market. Their desperation is conspicuous and destructive. It`s reminiscent of the kind of mentality that ruins companies, organizations, and in the end we could argue nations as well. We`ve been observing it for years, to the point that we labeled dollar policy the Machiavellian dollar. There appears to be an outright refusal to accept the idea that the free market is sufficient to heal a dislocated economy, and that any policy interference would only ultimately put off any such healing process.

How does one suppress the price of gold when it comes time that the market chooses to value it higher than the price at which it is "being stabilized" today? Markets tend to do this with or without approval when competing currencies are in trouble, but in those instances they fail to lift prices due to artificial forces they don`t fail to drain supply.

Any commodity would just become scarcer, as was the case in the seventies when the government used price caps to try and control prices. Of course, the hope is that the apparent scarcity dissipates once financial assets are able to inflate again, demand for the US dollar rises again, and corporate profitability returns to support such valuations.

Wall Street Bulls Fail to Ignite Bounce
What bulls will do never seizes to amaze me. The sparkle in her eye when Consuelo Mack discovered an indicator that never fails wasn`t spared for CNBC`s audience, neither were any of the other host`s glitter after applauding her interview with Laszlo Birinyi of Deutsche Bank.

Basically he came on and said nothing works! No indicators work all the time. What a performance. Consuelo looked utterly disappointed at the fact that she had to go public with the news that this man of experience and depth said there were no reliable leading indicators to a bull market.

Thank you, we`ve been saying that all along. There aren`t really. All of them have caveats. Even the fact that the advance/decline line topped out two years before the major market averages did is a very early leading indicator. Too early for practical implementation. Traders following that lead turned bearish far too early, which is not always bad, unless the objective is to go short right away.

With disappointment in her expression Consuelo asked one more time, isn`t there even one indicator that works consistently as a lead? Birinyi bashfully admitted there might be. "What is it," she asked with anticipation? Birinyi said it was when the public`s short position exceeded the professional short position.

The interview came to an end with a brief display of excitement from her and her colleagues at CNBC immediately followed by about a 10-point bounce in the Dow when she admitted that Mr. Birinyi phoned Tuesday morning with the great news, that the indicator was predicting a bottom (ostensibly the interview wasn`t recorded today) because the public`s short position had just exceeded the professional position.

So it seemed as though they agreed not to air it until the indicator flashed a buy signal. How convenient. To be fair, I`m sure he didn`t want everyone in the world watching the same indicator at the same time before it had a chance to work.

That settles it then. Birinyi and his clients must be making so much money if they`ve got the only market indicator that works. Or does it? I`m just wondering because I know a bridge in Brooklyn that`s for sale. If Birinyi`s indicator does indeed work as claimed it`s a new discovery. I`d found a few quotes from an article in Business Week from back in December 2001 titled "Why Laszlo Birinyi`s Compass Points Up."

The Dow was struggling with 10000 then, and the tech sector Birinyi was particularly fond of was at 2000 measured by the Nasdaq Composite. The former is down 25%, and the latter is down almost by half since then. Here`s some of what was said:

This savvy market strategist says money flows into stocks are signaling a change for the better in investor confidence (12 Dec 01):
His expertise is mainly in being able to pinpoint where the big cash in the market is going and which areas of the market it`s having an impact on. So it`s not surprising that Birinyi`s market opinion is highly valued.

"POSITIVE SIGN." With 2001 near the end, is he now bullish or bearish? "He who has the gold makes the rules," says Birinyi, quoting an old market cliché. "Our view going forward is that the stock market will continue higher in the long term as money flows on the Dow Jones industrial average are constructive," declares Birinyi. It shows that investors have taken advantage of price dips -- which is a very positive sign, he says. "People are becoming more confident," Birinyi says, and this is supported, by the "classical technical approaches" that he sees in the market today.

Among these technical factors: The advance/decline line on the New York Stock Exchange is "confirming" the move - December 12, 2001 - Business Week.

Oh Ok, I guess he didn`t know back then that the advance/decline line has always stopped going down on the last day of a bear market, as he revealed for us in the interview today. Nice try Consuelo.

Many bulls have been gradually throwing in the towel on the capitulation sell off idea for Wall Street that just happens to be underway right now. Maybe they got long a wee bit early.

That`s a bad sign. Bulls continue to bravely call bottoms, and mainstreet continues to put out the stopped clocks. I wonder what it means? When will it end?

At the bottom! - as usual.

By the way, does the alleged pro position in this new indicator take into account the government`s position - through the ESF or otherwise? Or would that just count as the public position?

I wouldn`t know; I`ve never tested or looked at the indicator. It sounds sensible, but it`s the calculation that would interest us, and the "implied" claim that there are no caveats to this one. I hope Laszlo tells us when the market has topped, and I sincerely would love his interpretation of the activity of the market immediately following the buy signal.

Yields Fall, Gold Gets Cheaper
In the same way we question why gold prices continue to follow the downturn in the fundamentals supporting the value of the dollar we could also ask why the long bond has been trending up so weakly in light of a 3000-point drop in the Dow since March?

The price of gold should soar if it has any monetary value and the value of the dollar is in question. But if the value of the dollar is not in question, the 30-year bond price should have gained more. In the prior 3300 point slide in the Dow (May to Sep 2001) the long bond gained nearly 14% in value. In the current climate it is only up about 9% from a lower intermediate bottom. That said the shorter-term maturity`s have matched their 2001 gains.

But none of the Treasuries are at new primary highs, as we might argue they should be, considering the fact this down leg in stock prices is at new primary lows itself. This hesitation, particularly evident in the long bond, leads us to believe the Treasury markets continue to factor some dollar weakness, rather than recovery. It`s important because Treasury yields are invariably a policy tool, and they`re still relatively sticky.

Historically, the 3 factors supporting the majority of the weight in the government`s calculation of its leading index are Money Supply growth, changes in the interest rate spread, and changes in average weekly manufacturing hours, in that order. So as the yield curve steepens and buffers the index it is widely interpreted to imply a recovery in GDP.

We won`t dispute that concept but the question is how much of the rate spread between the long and short end discounts a real recovery and how much of it discounts a nominal recovery? That`s the conundrum that persistently plagues monetary policy makers in an environment of rampant inflation. Arguably, confidence in the leading indicator`s ability to forecast recovery itself could influence that balance to an extent.

But on a day like today (Tue, Jul 23), with stock prices failing to find support again - though not for a lack of trying - and with a near 2 percent rebound in the dollar index, bond prices could`ve done better. The long bond gained 0.09% in price, and the 10-year gained 0.28%. Both have signaled an intermediate bull leg and they`ve both confirmed it with fresh highs on Tuesday, but only marginal ones.

Arguably it`s not over, and a bounce in the dollar combined with falling commodity prices, as well as ongoing equity weakness is just what the doctor ordered for a buying spike in the long bond. We`re not so sure about a material bounce in the US dollar, and thus a material decline in commodity prices, while stock prices continue to fall and weigh on the currency, however. As for stocks, the call is increasingly tough in the short term. I hate to ruin a good roll, but outside of the bull raid we`re on the look out for this week, the market has barely hinted at halting the accelerated selling we`ve been witness to in July.

NYSE volumes grew over Monday and breadth was just as bearish.

The Nasdaq composite resumed a treacherous slide on Tuesday falling by more than 4%. The Dow held up better, and was even up almost 100 points a few times throughout the day, but ended down 82 points, or 1%, to close at nearly new four year lows. The S&P 500 finished at new five year lows. The S&P 600 small cap index landed only two points above the neckline of a large 30-month broadening speculative top, or so it will be if the index falls through 180. JP Morgan and Citigroup were off 18% and 15% respectively in the Dow and the former took out its 1998 low to make a fresh six-year low. AT&T, Microsoft, and Alcoa followed suit. Trading in MSFT after the bell was furious. The stock ended down more than 7% on huge after-hours volume, and even after a $4 pop that only drew more sellers out in droves.

It`s the kind of stuff that dreams are made of for gold bulls. So what`s the problem?

Policymakers are probably in full swing to stabilize financial markets and raiding gold prices is a strategy that has yielded variable success in the past in this regard. It is not very likely that it will work, but it is likely that the resolute attempts will continue until the very last round. Dollar bulls are acting like cornered animals unaware of the consequences of their potentially irrational actions, but committed to their own survival.

There`s a lot at stake and Laszlo does indeed say it best when he says that "He who has the gold makes the rules…" The question is who owns the gold today?

After accounting for our medium to long range outlook for dollar assets perhaps the better question is what is that gold going to go for when they come back for it?

Ed Bugos

[manfred1_I]

Kleine technische Reaktion heute.

Wer stellt denn das Geld für den Rückkauf zur
Verfügung??

[keepitshort]

würde sagen der technische pull-back an die
Nackenlinie vom S&P500
und dann gehts abwärts

vermute ich zumindest

[manfred1_I]

Das freut die Jungs von JPM-Chase nicht so:


TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan`s imports of gold surged 282.1% in volume terms in June from the same month a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday.

Many Japanese have looked to gold in recent months as a safer investment than the country`s shaky banking system.

The total value of Japan`s gold imports rose 369.7%, to Y5.85 billion, as the price of gold climbed more than 22% in the intervening year.

[keepitshort]

und die Japaner werden ab April 2003
noch viel mehr physisches Gold kaufen

ab 31.März2003 gibt es keine Bankgarantien
für japanische Sparbücher.

4000.- DM auf der Bank und die Bank macht pleite
und der Japaner bekommt kein Geld mehr.

Das ist nichts Gutes für einen sparsamen japanischen
Kleinsparer der vielleicht 100.000 DM auf der Bank hat.

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Wenn ich die letzten paar Tage so Revue passieren lasse, hatten doch die Nachrichtensender schon sehr konkrete Informationen, wie diese "Finanzierungen" von JPM und Konsorten durchgeführte wurden. Bilde ich mir das nur ein, oder fielen da nicht auch Namen von Firmen in der Karibik, die dafür benützt wurden?

Ich habe das leider nur so nebenbei im Autoradio verfolgt. Kann sich da nicht wer von Euch deutlicher erinnern? Ich hatte da das Gefühl, dass das sehr konkret war!!!

Ebenso nannte man genaue Zahlen von weiteren Unternehmen, denen JPM "geholfen" habe. Methode "Yosemite" fiel doch da! Soll das nur eine Spinnerei eines Journalisten gewesen sein? Lebt der noch? Kann ich mir nicht vorstellen!

Und so mit einem kleinen "überzeugenden" Interview eines Direktors von JPM wäre alles wieder vom Tisch gewischt? Da ist doch was oberfaul!

[Wavetrader]

SchlimmerSilberfinger, ja das stimmt. Es fiel der Name "Delta", eine Briefkastenfirma auf den Cayman-Inseln. Demnach hat diese Firma über die Citigroup Öl von Enron gekauft, nur damit Enron dieses wieder zurückkauft, um damit die Umsätze zu erhöhen und letztendlich zusätzliche Kredite zu erhalten. Finanziert wurde diese Firma über den "Yosemite"-Trust, der durch hohe Zinszusagen den Anlegern schmackhaft gemacht wurde.

[Wavetrader]

Nachtrag: Die zusätzlichen Kredite sind also demnach nur dadurch zustande gekommen, daß das Geld der Trust-Anleger für einen gewissen Zeitraum in den Öl-Vorräten der "Delta"-Firma "geparkt" wurde. Die Verzinsung des "Yosemite"-Trusts war für Enron die Zinslast dieser getarnten Kredite. Die Bank verdiente dann an den Transaktionen.

Übrigens haben laute BörseGo sowohl die Citigroup als auch JP Morgan heute entsprechende Geschäfte bestätigt, aber diese als legal bezeichnet.

[Clunes]

@SchlimmerSilberfinger


US-Senat untersucht die Rolle der Banken


Citigroup half Enron bei Buchungstricks


von JATHON SAPSFORD, PAUL BECKETT, WSJ


Hätte Enron ohne Hilfe der Wall-Street-Banken die Investoren auf so gigantische Weise täuschen können?
Anscheinend nein. Interne Unternehmensdokumente rücken jetzt das größte US-Finanzinstitut, die Citigroup, in ein
schiefes Licht.


NEW YORK. Die Bank soll für die Energiehandelsgesellschaft eine Reihe von ungewöhnlichen Finanzierungstechniken
arrangiert haben. Ziel war es, den Verschuldungsgrad von Enron zu verschleiern und den Cash Flow künstlich
aufzublähen.

In einer komplexen Reihe von Transaktionen hat Citigroup Enron offenbar dabei unterstützt, in den vergangenen drei
Jahren Mittel aufzunehmen, die als Handelserlöse verbucht wurden anstatt als Kredite. Dies geht aus Memos beider
Unternehmen hervor, die gestern im Untersuchungsausschuss des US-Senats behandelt wurden. Dadurch konnte der
schwache Cash Flow des Energiehändlers künstlich aufgeblasen werden, um dem Wachstum der Gewinne auf dem
Papier standzuhalten. In Wirklichkeit aber lag die Kluft zwischen beiden Positionen zu dieser Zeit schon bei bis zu einer
Milliarde Dollar im Jahr, ist einem Enron-Memo zu entnehmen.

Bei der Finanzierungstechnik spielte eine eigens gebildete Gesellschaft mit dem Namen Yosemite eine Rolle, die rund
800 Millionen Dollar bei Anleihen-Anlegern einsammelte. Außerdem war eine Gesellschaft mit dem Delta involviert – die
saß auf den Cayman-Inseln und wurde von der Citigroup kontrolliert. In den komplizierten Zahlungsfluss war auch die
Citigroup selbst einbezogen. Eine wichtige Rolle spielten Ringgeschäfte zwischen Delta, Citigroup und Enron, bei denen
das Geld einmal im Kreis herumgeschickt wurde und Öl in der entgegensetzten Richtung. Im Endeffekt fand die Reise
nur auf dem Papier statt – Geld und Öl blieben da, wo sie von Anfang an waren. Aber die virtuelle Rundreise gab Enron
die Möglichkeit, das Geld letztlich als Einnahme zu verbuchen – statt als aufgenommenen Kredit, was korrekt gewesen
wäre. Dieser Unterschied war wichtig, denn bei einigen Enron-Aktionären waren wegen der steigenden Schulden
bereits Zweifel an der Unternehmensstrategie aufgekommen. Pech nur: Genau diese Ringgeschäfte sind den Ermittlern
aufgefallen.

Die Citigroup, die Enron in den letzten drei Jahren insgesamt 14 derartiger Transaktionen 4,8 Milliarden Dollar bereit
gestellt hat, weist jede Mitverantwortung an den massiven Betrügereien der Energiegesellschaft zurück. Auch wenn
die Geschäfte kompliziert gewesen seien, seien sie lediglich die Refinanzierung eines bereits bestehenden
Arrangements gewesen, bei dem Citigroup Enron Mittel für die künftige Lieferung von Erdgas zur Verfügung gestellt
habe. Man sei ansonsten davon ausgegangen, dass die Geschäfte mit Enron von den Buchprüfern bei Arthur Andersen
abgesegnet und rechtens gewesen seien.

Auch wenn die Vorgehensweise von Citigroup technisch gesehen vielleicht mit den Bilanzierungsrichtlinien vereinbar
sein mag, so wirft sie doch die Frage auf, ob das Institut nicht dazu beigetragen hat, wichtige Informationen vor den
Enron-Investoren zu verbergen. Ebenfalls in die Schusslinie der Ermittler ist J.P. Morgan Chase geraten. Der
Investmentbank werden ähnlich gelagerte Manöver mittels Vorauszahlungsarrangements über ein Finanzierungsvehikel
namens „Mahonia“ vorgeworfen. Versicherungsgesellschaften, die für die Transaktionen garantiert hatten, klagten
gegen JP Morgan, es habe sich effektiv um Kredite und nicht um Handelsgeschäfte gehandelt. Auch JP Morgan glaubt
an die rechtmäßige Buchung der Vorgänge.

Die Banken haben dazugelernt. „Ich wünschte, ich hätte nie von Enron gehört“, sagte Citigroup-Chairman Sanford I.
Weill. Diese Einschätzung wird sich wohl auch nach den Senatsanhörungen in dieser Woche nicht ändern

[peter.wedemeier1]

JPM Revisited and Recalculated
Practically all gold analysts have meanwhile adopted the idea of bullion banks surpressing gold prices. Many gold bulls suspect that JPM has been the main perpetrator in surpessing the gold price of late. Reports vary, but the consensus is that a price above 325 an ounce would be extremely harmful to JPM`s financial position. Let`s assess whether this could be true.

The estimated US gold reserves stand at roughly 8000 tons of gold. This represents, against todays value, roughly USD 80.000.000.000. (USD 80 billion) Now, let`s assume as most analysts conceed, that 50% of those gold reserves were leased out to bullion banks. Let`s further expedite, and presume that JPM took up 50% of that part. This would mean that JPM has leased for USD 20 billion in gold from the Federal Reserve Banks.

Assuming that JPM sold this gold against prices below 300 an ounce, it cannot have lost more than 10% on paper. (presuming that they sold it for an average of 270 an ounce) This loss would currently translate into USD 2 billion. This in turn, is for JPM a fair amount of money but not life threatning, considering their current marketcap of USD 50 billion. The USD 2 billion is the equals last year`s dividend payments.

What is all the fuss about then? Well, the issue is not as simple as it may seem. The question is not how much JPM has lost so far on paper, but rather how much will it cost JPM to physically buy back the gold. It is more than conceivable, that if JPM starts buying back 2000 tons of gold, that prices would rally sharply. It is wishful thinking that JPM could buy back all the gold at current prices. So, it is not the current paper loss what counts, but the effective losses JPM will incur, when buying back the gold. This represents an undefined liability of huge proportions. Closing the existing gold liabilities, can only occur by driving gold prices higher.

By how much would gold prices rally if JPM starts buying back the asserted 2000 tons of sold gold? Well, 2000 tons represent USD 20 billion in current value. This amounts to roughly 2 or 3% of the entire global gold reserves. It equals more than one entire year of gold production. If one analyses, current gold trading volumes, than prices could rally within my view to 400 or 500 an ounce, quite instantly. If JPM would buy back, let`s say against an average of 390 an ounce, it would incur USD 6 billon in effective trading losses. Now, this would seriousely threaten the liquidity position of JPM. If JPM had to buy back the gold against an average of 600 an ounce, they would be almost certainly busted. This represent huge liabilities and uncertainties. No wonder, regulators feel the need to get involved.

This comment excludes the derivatives positions of JPM, which amount up to USD 30 trillion. A substantial part is related to gold, but I can only assume that they partially hedged their gold short positions. If not, they should be considered retards by all standards. One also has to keep in mind that I only took JPM`s gold positions in consideration. It is more than likely, that other bullion banks face similar prospects.

Good luck,

[konradi]

klasse Artikel - woher ?
Danke an P.W.

[granitbiss]

#8 Spieler

die Frage ist gar nicht dumm, diese Sache möchte hier wohl nur keiner sehen.

Wenn JP den "Bach runtergeht" können die natürlich ihre Verpflichtungen nicht erfüllen, ergo auch kein Gold zur Lieferung kaufen - wovon denn auch ??

Nur wenn die Bank gestützt wird, könnten die Eindeckungen erfolgen, es wird aber für die Beteiligten billiger - daher besser sein- die Edelmetallpreise zu drücken.

[peter.wedemeier1]

They refuse to die easily,but die they will on next run-up
to 330 gold plus all their other gambles in the market place
whatever they might be,23 trillion in derivatives is such a
huge number any little loss should do them in.I hope they
acted on the hype of a recovery and now that double dip
is on the way are going to go down responsible bankers
as they are.They probably are short 10 times the amount of
gold they originally had and deserve to get crushed as others
of their kind,the free market capitalists they are?

[peter.wedemeier1]

August 1 - Gold $304 up $1.10 - Silver $4.57 down 2 cents

Gold Recovers From Trip Below $300 To Close Higher

As I mentioned last week, we are closer to the big move in gold now than we were a
few weeks ago when gold was trading in the $320’s. The reason for that assessment is
The Gold Cartel’s financial problems are growing in intensity by the week (See
various input below).

Gold came in lower this morning and then was taken down below $300 for a brief
period of time. When poor economic news was announced at 8:30 EDT, gold
rebounded very quickly and wiped out a $5 loss as the dollar was tagged. However,
as soon as it managed to get up $2 on the day, the goons showed up again to cap the
advance.

This Gold-eagle post by Mike Bolser says it all. When Morgan (cabal) loses its grip,
gold heads towards $800/$1,000:

Date: Thu Aug 01 2002 13:26
Winston (from Sector at USA Gold) ID#103450:
-
"This Master Plan was put into place for good in the month of June 1996 when the
cabal [Assembled by the Fed] succeeded by their concerted selling, in breaking the
200 day moving average of the price of gold to the downside. Thus they had
demonstrated a full control of the price of gold.

Having grasped the utopian goal of no inflation through a manipulated gold price,
the Fed and it`s acolytes began to figuratively rape and pillage the investment
landscape.

Interest rate derivatives exploded 225% at JPMorgan Chase that quarter because
there now was no threat of higher interest rates because the last remaining force that
might move the dollar down, rising gold, had been vanquished. GSEs through
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exploded for the same reasons...it was a sure thing,
once higher interest rates were out of the picture.

These neo-alchemists forgot to tell their Master of the Universe one little thing.

They forgot that it would be necessary to sell tonnes and tonnes of a limited physical
gold resource in order to keep this whole ponzi scheme afloat. So the IMF wrote
rules to double count the central bank gold reserves in order to "Inflate " the actual
metal deposits [IMF Statistical Accounting Seminar October 1999 Santiago, Chile].

That`s not the only coc*roach between the Boston and the Crème Pie.

The gold derivative "assets" [$41 Billion worth] on JPMs books aren`t really assets
at all since they came from a loan from the US Treasury and Fed. They must
according to GAAP rules be called a liability [The conflict between IMF and GAAP
meets HERE].

So Mr. Harrison, JPMs CEO, faces a dilemma on August 14, 2002. Does he certify
that the gold derivatives are assets or liabilities. He could go to jail if he chooses the
wrong accounting "door". "

-END-

It will not go unnoticed that gold rejected $300 with fervor. The gold bull market
move should be on track again, the correction over.

The gold shares popped nicely too. The XAU closed at 62.07, up 1.53, while the HUI
rose 2.05 to 109.40.

This was a hoot earlier, a www.gold-eagle.com post:

CNBC INVESTMENT POLL RESULTS
(vronsky) Aug 01, 10:04

CNBC pooled its millions of listeners as to what they feel will be the best investment
in the NEXT 12 months. Here are the results:

Stocks..................45%
GOLD..................22%
Cash.....................14%
Real Estate..........13%

With auditable distain CNBC commentator Mark Heines brayed "...and GOLD
came in second, but historically is a bad investment."

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The Gold Cartel has some very serious problems. The U.S. stock market worked off
its oversold condition and now is headed for new low ground. The DOW fell 230 to
8506, while the NASDOG (1280, down 48) was clobbered all day long.

It struck me that the only DOW stock to close higher was J.P. Morgan Chase
($25.02, up 6 cents). The economic news was so bad the PPT must have figured it
would do no good to support the Dow, so they just propped up Morgan. Citigroup
was hit, closing at $32.30, down $1.06. The banking index closed 23 lower.

Washington, Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The pace of expansion in U.S. manufacturing
slowed more than expected in July, an industry survey showed.
The Institute for Supply Management`s factory index fell to 50.5 last month from
56.2 the previous month. A level greater than 50 signals growth.
Slower consumer demand and a sluggish stock market are raising concerns that the
economy`s rebound may be faltering. That may make companies reluctant to place
orders and invest more in new equipment, economists said….
Construction spending unexpectedly fell in June, the second monthly decline, as
work decreased on housing, offices, schools and highways. The 2.2 percent drop to
$820.8 billion at an annual rate followed a 2 percent decline in May that was steeper
than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said. -END-

Economic Crisis Swells in S. America
Argentina`s Neighbors Swept Up in Turmoil as Some Investors Flee
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, August 1, 2002; Page A01
MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, July 31 -- Several additional South American countries
have been swept up in what is becoming the region`s worst economic crisis in two
decades, igniting fears of a replay of the Latin American financial collapses of the
early 1980s.
The crisis, which analysts had hoped would be contained to Argentina`s financial
meltdown six months ago, has now spread to its neighbors Brazil, Uruguay and
Paraguay. It has threatened to engulf other politically unstable economies in the
region as well, including Bolivia and Venezuela, where analysts predict deep
recessions for this year…. -END-

From last evening’s The King Report:

…You can deep-6 all those overly optimistic GDP and earnings forecasts for the
balance of ’02…What is the case for using projected earnings, instead of trailing
earnings, to ascertain stock value now?
The widely heralded ‘disconnect’ is not between the economy and stock market; it’s
between obstinate econobulls and reality. Too many economists slavishly cling to
models that are overly dependent on monetary indicators, which lose predictability
after a busted bubble. One can follow a compass all their lives; but if you’re south of
the equator, the compass now points to the opposite direction to which you’re
conditioned.
The constant mantra of ‘the economy is fundamentally sound’ while stocks are
cascading is not only laughable; it’s an exact replica of post-Crash of ’29 official
propaganda. Any book or account of US finance and business conditions after the
’29 Crash is littered with pronouncements of the soundness of the US economy and
business by Hoover, FDR, Wall St., and other business and political leaders…This
has all been so predictable. However, an exact repeat of the ‘30s is not ordained.
Much depends on policy and events. To paraphrase Mark Twain, ‘History doesn’t
repeat; it rhymes’. -END-

From Café contributor Dave Lewis of http://www.chaos-onomics.com::

In the Opinion section of today`s WSJ in a response to a WSJ editorial by Glassman
and Hassett of Dow 36,000 fame - a "letter to the editor”:

Dow 36000 Revisited
JAMES K. GLASSMAN AND KEVIN A. HASSETT


The Proof Will Be in the Pudding, Whenever That Comes
Dave Lewis - S. Westerlo, N.Y.

Given equity market behavior over the past few years, I applaud Mr. Glassman and Mr. Hassett for the courage of their
convictions. I wonder, though, if they are falling for their own rhetoric (e.g. data is not powerful nor do themes apply
forcefully) instead of soberly evaluating the causes of market action.

The primary cause of outsized equity market gains during the 20th century, relative to, say, the 18th century, in my view,
is the inflationist policy of the Fed. This policy was intellectually supported by, inter alia, Milton Friedman and Anna
Schwartz who argued, in simple terms, that modest inflation of the money supply would help avoid offending the
sensibilities of the populace as in the issue of "sticky wages."

In practice though, it seems that the flow of funds within a policy context of inflationism are far less universal than
Friedman and Schwartz forecast. Certain, sometimes varying, sectors of the economy receive their funds first, and thus
avoid the losses associated with diminished purchasing power of the currency. This explains to me at least the more
recent over-performance of equity over debt.

Unfortunately, inflationist policies in the past have always, save for the current experiment, broken down. In grade school
most of us learned to compare apples to apples, not to oranges. Inflationism, in its final stages, at least in the past, has
always led to an inability to make valid relative comparisons. That is, inflationism ultimately makes markets inefficient.
Equity ownership in a period of rising market inefficiency seems like a poor strategy to me, but the future will, as always,
be the proof in the pudding. -END-

More from Dave:

Bill;
One element of a convertibility crisis missing from popular readings of Keynesian analysis is the relationship of
"demand" to higher prices. While in an economy at or near some equilibrium level, declining demand tends to be
coincident with declining prices, when an economy is far from equilibrium, as it is prior to a convertibility crisis, you can
have both, a drop off in volume demand and HIGHER prices. I witnessed this first hand in SE Asia as prices exploded due
to
the currency reval, while volume demand plummeted. In today`s ISM release (formerly NAPM) we see production levels
increased at a slower rate (55.7) while prices increased at a faster rate (68.3), the highest prices reading since April
2000. Good thing inflation is contained!!!……

You have all the proof you need to make that case although I think recent market action is more a function of the
proliferating quant driven hedgies than official intervention, not that the powers that be are upset by their current
behavior. Consider why it was the New Dems who took the much more well intentioned, but ultimately destructive, market
manipulation strategies of previous administrations to achieve their "prosperity for all." The single biggest beneficiary
of a "strong $" is the government. A strong $ facilitates inefficient government spending as debt costs are kept
artificially low and efforts which obfuscate that inefficiency, such as Gold price suppression, ultimately lead to
government over-reach. Nixon`s "we`re all Keynesians now" keeps running through my mind as the current Republican
administration seems to have simply followed old ways. Economic corruption, as we have seen, is glacial in its advance,
covering many administrations with good intentions but long term, self-destructive means. At some point, just as the Naz
fell under the weight of its own hubris, so too will the US debt market. Perhaps next week we will see the $40B straw
breaking the camel`s back. -END-

http://lemetropolecafe.com/james_jo...625995&pid=2387

+++++

***The good news is that precious metals prices are screaming bargains and as a form of portfolio
insurance during
these uncertain times should be in every investment portfolio.***

Interview With: S.E. Hayden
President and CEO
Dated 07/02/2002
Click here if you don`t hear audio...

http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/v...tent=99&id=7315

Imo. TIA. Pass It Along>>>>>>>>>>>

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

J. P. Morgan Chase
Office of the President
Mr. William Harrison Jr.
270 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10017

August 4, 2002

Dear Mr. Harrison,

The day is soon approaching for major corporations re-certify their quarterly results for the SEC. Corporate executive officers must do so under penalty of time in jail if what they sign off on is false.
In your recent letter to the Senate`s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations you stated: “I do not have personal knowledge of, and, therefore, cannot attest on the basis of my personal knowledge to, the facts necessary to answer the Subcommittee`s questions.”

Therefore, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee brings your attention to J.P. Morgan Chase’s gold reporting to various authorities via the enclosed report by GATA’s Mike Bolser.

You also stated in your response to the Senate investigating committee that: “As the largest corporate lender in the world, transparency is key to our business.” Clearly, that is not the case when it comes to the reporting of your activity in the gold market.

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee charges the reason for this lack of transparency is your role in manipulating the price of gold. Although you may not have had "personal" knowledge of facts necessary to answer the sub-committee`s questions, you are the head of JPM, and as such, are responsible for the actions of those within your organization. It is you who is ultimately accountable for the activities to your juniors, just as a General is held responsible for the actions of the soldiers beneath him. While J. P. Morgan Chase has gained mightily, the average American has suffered due to this un-American activity. The suppression of the gold price took away a barometer from the American investor that something was wrong in the financial markets, leaving them clueless as to why the stock market was plummeting. But worst of all, your role in the manipulation has contributed to the devastation to the economies of sub-Saharan Africa.

You should be aware that there are thousands in the GATA standing army (activist supporters of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) that are waiting for you to re-certify J.P. Morgan’s financial statements by August 14. GATA has other documents prepared to follow.

Mike Bolser’s report and this letter have been sent to the following:

* Senator Levin, Chairman, Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Fax: [phone]

*CFTC - Michael Gorham, Director of Market Oversight, Fax: [phone]

*Attorney General Elliot Spitzer, Fax: [phone]

*SEC Chairman - Harvey L. Pitt, Fax: [phone]

*US Bankruptcy Judge Arthur Gonzales
Federal Bankruptcy Court
One Bowling Green Plaza
New York City, NY 10004-1408

*Attorney General Bill Lockyer (CA)
President-Elect, The National Association of Attorneys General
750 First Street, NE, Suite 1100, Washington, DC 2002
Fax: [phone]

*Milberg Weiss Bershad Hynes & Lerach LLP
Confidential Inquiries, Enron Class Action Group
One Pennsylvania Plaza
New York, NY 10119-0165
Fax: [phone]

Sincerely,

William J. Murphy III
Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

[peter.wedemeier1]

Douglas A. Warner III, Chairman JPM
Date..................Shares.........Stock................. Transaction
2002-06-28 *514 MOT Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $14.59 per share. (Value of $7,499)
2002-05-09 *20,000 MOT Purchase at $15.33 per share. (Cost of $306,600)
2001-05-25 *100,000 JPM Planned Sale (Estimated proceeds of $5,000,000)
2001-05-09 *100,000 JPM Planned Sale (Estimated proceeds of $5,000,000)
2001-05-22 *200,000 JPM Sale at $50 per share.(Proceeds of $10,000,000)
2001-04-19 *133,000 JPM Planned Sale (Estimated proceeds of $5,000,000)
2001-04-19 *403,257 JPM Disposition (Non Open Market) at $48.85 per share. (Value of $19,699,104)
2001-04-19 *133,000 JPM Sale at $48.765 - $48.8 per share. (Proceeds of about $6,488,000)
2001-04-19 *788,769 JPM Option Exercise
2001-11-27 *10,020 JPM Disposition (Non Open Market);



It may be that the Treasury or Federal Reserve have secretly employed JPM and others as their gold derivatives trading entity and have somehow issued an off balance sheet guarantee to JPM against losses in their huge volume of gold derivatives trading. This however would staunchly contradict the repeated denials made in letters to members of Congress from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and The Secretary of the Treasury that they do not deal in gold. The CEO of JP Morgan has an urgent obligation to shareholders to explain all this JPM secrecy especially in the harsh light of Enron and Mr.Harrison’s July 2002 statements that he “...favors transparency”.



How can JP Morgan show the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency one set of derivative books and associated risks while showing their shareholders another?


If they have no risk in these massive gold derivatives, they are obligated to provide public documentation
to clear the OCC evidence that they do have substantial additional risk.



Or perhaps there is just another JP Morgan Chase entity running around masquerading as JPM’s evil twin?


Michael Bolser
2215 Summit View Drive
Valrico, Florida 33594

[peter.wedemeier1]

JP Morgan Analyst - Crisis
Could Occur `At Any Moment`
By Eric Burroughs
8-4-2

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Severe stress in global markets has nerve-wracked investors fearful that one big shock could jam the gears of the financial system -- much like the crisis days of 1998.

"People feel like gasoline has been dumped on the floor and it wouldn`t take much to ignite it," said James Glassman, senior U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan Chase.

Plunging stocks and multibillion dollar bankruptcies the past month have investors assessing the widespread damage to banks and insurers. If more scandals or failures come to light further straining capital markets, it could force central banks to jump to the rescue, pumping money into the system through lower interest rates.

Fear is starting to hurt economies as well. The financial market squeeze in both the United States and Europe is depriving businesses of crucial capital and sharply increasing their cost of borrowing at a time when global growth, led by the $10 trillion U.S. economy, appears to be losing steam.

"The Fed has to get concerned about the capital markets effectively tightening for the Fed at a time when it wants policy to remain accommodative," said Brad Stone, chief U.S. market strategist at Barclays Capital.

"The Fed may need to lean against that. Some weeks ago that looked like a very low risk. Now it`s definitely a real risk," he added.

MONEY HARD TO GET

Interest rates charged on high-quality corporate debt right now stand at near-record levels -- 2.2 percentage points above risk-free Treasuries, up more than half a percentage point since early June.

Investors, scared they cannot trust corporate balance sheets, have proven reluctant to lend money. Corporate bond issuance by investment grade companies sank in July to $22 billion, down 63 percent from its January to June average. Last week investment grade debt suffered its worst week since at least 1997, and junk bonds are set for their worst year ever.

Funding through the short-term commercial paper market also has become very difficult, with total outstanding issuance for nonfinancial and financial firms falling a hefty $93 billion this year. Banks have turned skittish about lending. Initial public offerings have dried up.

"The way the events are unfolding right now for the near term, dealing with these many financial constraints is going to impinge and impinge and impinge on economic activity," said prominent Wall Street economist Henry Kauffman, who has argued the Fed should cut interest rates.

Swap spreads -- a measure of banking sector risk that signaled the systemic distress in 1998 -- popped out last week on the credit anxiety about J.P. Morgan before stabilizing. Investors are even raising risk premiums on assets usually considered very safe like mortgage-backed securities.

With markets so stretched, harried traders are looking anxiously for the one trigger that could set off an explosion.

"The markets continue to scan for a `smoking gun` to justify some emergency policy response," said Michael Wallace, an economist at Standard & Poor`s MMS.

Rattled markets showed their heightened state of anxiety on Friday when rumors of an emergency central bank meeting in Europe to help a failing bank or insurance company swept through trading desks, sparking selling of stocks and powering gains in safe-haven short-term Treasuries.

Banking trouble fears hit a fever pitch on July 24 when rumors spread of liquidity problems at J.P. Morgan Chase -- the largest U.S. bank-- and Citigroup after congressional revelations of their dealings with failed energy trader Enron Corp. The impact across credit markets was harsh and swift.

Later that day ratings agency Standard & Poor`s said such talk was unfounded and reaffirmed the ratings of both banks, but investors remain shaken and the damage to market conditions has not improved much.

Europe has also seen its fair share of worries about the quality of its banks and insurance companies on the asset losses, providing fodder for the rumor mill.

On July 25 Germany`s second largest bank, HVB Group , posted a second-quarter loss and described business conditions as among the worst since World War II.

`98 REDUX?

Economists are quick to point to the differences between this episode and the late summer of 1998, when Russia`s debt default sent investors rushing out of risky assets globally and nearly brought the financial system to its knees when the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management almost collapsed.

Conditions were so bad then that even the massive U.S. government bond market -- considered the most liquid in the world and a refuge from turmoil -- nearly froze as dealers demanded higher and higher premiums to execute trades.

Eventually the Fed cut rates to restore investor confidence, even though the economy was in good shape.

The current pain in capital markets has yet to reach those extreme levels of distress, said J.P. Morgan`s Glassman. But he said the market sees conditions as deteriorating to the point where a crisis could happen "at any moment."

[peter.wedemeier1]

GOLD & SILVER POTPOURRI
On CNBC, talking head and recipient of cash from Enron, Larry Kudlow, was referring to a "balance sheet credit crunch" as interest rates have gone down and corporate rates have not. Earlier he strongly stated that he wanted to see the FED funds rate cut 1/4% to help get gold to $350.00 an ounce. The following is pertinent in this regard. Goldman Sachs predicts a 3/4% cut in interest rates by the end of the year to 1%. Japan here we come. Goodbye dollar and hello 4500 on the Dow. Such a cut would mark a significant sign of defeat for the FED and the economy. Lower rates have helped housing and that`s it. Even lower rates won`t help anyone.

There is no question there will be more very bad news coming regarding JP Morgan Chase. They will be exposed as the worst fraudsters in Wall Street history. This involves not only Enron and a number of other companies in money laundering scams but also the rigging of the gold and silver markets. This firm is totally without morals or scruples. They are totally corrupt. We`d imagine the SEC and the New York Attorney General will really take them apart, particularly the Attorney General. This is only the very beginning of their nightmare, which hopefully will lead to their exposure and the end of the rigging of the gold and silver markets. Citicorp is equally bad off as their partner in crime, but they have considerably more capital. JP Morgan has a derivatives book 2-1/2 times as large as the US economy, that`s why the US Treasury has to take over their positions. If they don`t the 51% of total derivatives they have written will come crashing down and with them the world financial system. The US Treasury and the FED are conspirators with these banks. When JP Morgan goes the whole elitist structure crumbles and they all end up in jail or dead. When the public finds out what they have done they may well lynch them.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Now you can understand why George W. Bush wants the police powers that he has requested from Congress. He can use them to suppress the people and protect his evil cohorts. JP Morgan Chase could only have been allowed to amass derivatives 42 times its assets while in collusion with government and the forces that control government and the FED. In fact, when they go down the financial system will grind to a halt. No banks, no cash, no credit cards, etc. Only gold and silver coins will spend and you best have extra food and water available and the proper equipment to defend yourself. This is not a pipedream. This is very real. JP Morgan and Citicorp have never been anything other than criminal enterprises going back over 100 years. They were bankrolled by the British Royal Family and have held sway over American business and government for over 100 years.

JP Morgan Chase on August 14 has to make a choice. They either certify that their gold derivatives are assets or liabilities. It will be interesting to see what choice they make. We are watching and if they play Mickey Mouse they` ll end up in jail.

These are the same people who have funded both sides of every war for the last 800 years. Meanwhile you load up with gold and silver stocks and take the wildest ride of your life. Hopefully we can get you out before everything turns to mush. In the meantime, if enough pressure is put on Congress, in this an election year, they will act in their own self interest, slime that they are. Americans are tired of being played for suckers and they`ll never buy this new world order garbage. By the time this is over true rage will sweep the land and there will be a cleansing like the world has never witnessed before. We will soon win and we can take back our freedom.

On Tuesday July 23, 2002 President Bush signed legislation that makes the US Government net silver buyers for the first time in 40 years. It permits continued production of American Eagle Silver Bullion coins. Since 1986 about 10 million coins a year have been produced and that silver must now come out of the silver market.



August 5, 2002

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER
An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.
Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman
FOR A FREE INTRODUCTORY COPY GO TO:
Robert Chapman [e-mail]

[peter.wedemeier1]

sitiuation is getting more clear
JP Morgan Chase has underreported more than USD 45 billion in gold derivatives. The company failed to report these positions in their SEC form 10Q, at March 31, 2002 or in their annual reporting of 2001. JPM shareholders appear to have far greater risk than previousely disclosed by the company.

Altough the USD 45 billion in gold dervatives only represent roughly 0,15 % of JPM`s total of derivative positions, it is still signifies a relative large position. It is unclear at this stage how dervative postions are construed. Or in other words, the relation between short and long derivative positions.

In my previous posting, I reiterated that is not the current paper loss which is of importance, but rather the efective lossses JPM will incur when buying back the asserted 2000 tons of gold. Having looked at things again, I suspect that the FED and JPM entered the gold transaction at a higher gold price. I would not be surprised if JPM leased the gold, when gold was at around USD 350 an ounce.

Then JPM probably sold the gold at an average closer to USD 300-320 an ounce, pushing prices down to the USD 260 level. If they sold the gold and acquired government bonds instead then there is positive yield difference of around 17%. Government bonds yielded the past two years around 19 % while the gold was probably leased against 1 or 2%.

In sum, JPM has leased the gold around a level of USD 350 per ounce. They sold the gold at around an average of USD 310 per ounce. But JPM has a positive yield differential on paper of around 17% which would off set most of their current paper losses. This does not the solve the problem of actually buying and delivering the gold back to the FED.

Consequently, I believe that the largely rumoured 325 an ounce is critical to JPM , since that is the amount they actually start lossing money into the entire equation. The equation is based on the FED debt, the average price where the gold was sold, the current gold price and the yield differential, between the gold lease rates and government bond prices.

[peter.wedemeier1]

JP Morgan and Citigroup, as said by me many times this audience are next to collapse: they are bring afloat ONLY by FED money supply. GOLD should be 400 an ounce but they sell recently ALL POSITIONS to cover losses in every corner of the world.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Morgan & Citi next to ask help to Bush
They don`t succeed even to put in place a little rebound required by superior order today august five, they really have NO MONEY AT ALL. Exacerbated phones are this moment crossing hot lines with US power to supply more money to put into the furnace. Ceo`s are in a panic fashion togheter to all other gangster banks system, asking to rulers to intervene, otherwise all is lost, included next political elections. They try to hold up greenback and sell GOLD, as usual, but are tired to work this way, they fear to be get alone with huge debts. They are close to give up as capitalist champion as like as Mr. Martin Ebner, the swiss champion that leave swiss people astonished and likely next to loose even its own national identity. Be cautious with this market:IT`S TOTALLY MANIPULATED. For me the savers have NOT TO SELL NOW, whether not forced to do so, somebody are rounding in deep water like scharks. See the GOLD almost stopped and real estate market going right into a BUBBLE worse than that of shares. El viejo professor.

[peter.wedemeier1]

There are NO FREE MARKET CAPITALISM out there. This words are intended for business schools and universities as theoretic assumptions no matter about put in practic operations. NEVER!!! Otherwise GOLD will be 2000 bucks, DOW 3000, NASDOG 800 and SP 450, dollar to 2 euro and unemployements in US at 20%. Banks employers and wages in financial services the same of miners. About JP Morgan and Citi, they are in a moribund condition as like as western capitalism. They have what they merit for beeing the first among the gangster bank system, but the others in the band are not in better shape.

[kaepntnemo]

peter.wedemeier1 _is_ a posting bot. definitly. any doubts yet?

cu -nemo-

[peter.wedemeier1]

And Bush reply yea!
Give more money to this guy to save America, he say "chicos" buy today 6 august, no matter of money of taxpayers, I want the bounce of shares market "death or alive".

[peter.wedemeier1]

so said, so happened poor america!
Mr. Bush supply money to JP Morgan and Citi to buy a lot of shares today and to make a little bit of gym to the shorts to run forward crazy prices. Who pay this kind of buying SPORT? You, yes you, americans, with your taxes, so you learn finally who is the REAL MANIPULATOR of the socalled "free market". Not satisfated still have to found out a culprit for the disaster: Mr. GreenSPOT. It`s a lot of time that in this audience almost all put under accuse this guy sothat seems that your Mr. President is enjoing this site. It`s an old fashioned man, speaking a tortous and complicated language in order to hide the reality. What better guy to immolate for responsible of all this disaster? So, the power, order a merchant bank to spead off the insider of another rate cut by the FED going exactly where is Japan. Money for NOTHING!!! This way is the powerful economy of US? Somebody in the upper rooms are under panic. What? 5% rebound of shares already noticed by me yesterday, but was not yet arrived the truck full of greenback that`s arrived today? What? Rebound of dollar? Why? For doing what? Usual selling of GOLD, see no hope for gold, sorry post, and all this it`s called FAIR MARKET. In Las Vegas tables or in Montecarlo almost it`s more elegant. El viejo professor.

[jeffery2]

Mann, würde mir das leid tun, wenn P1 von der Leiter fiele . Die Postings würden mir sehr fehlen.
J2

[peter.wedemeier1]

All the money given by Bush to banks is already finished
JP Morgan and Citi has done their jobs with public money, as stated elsewhere, and now they are once more at dry. Today august,7 they bought also a little of gold but the cash is already empty. Tomorrow other taxpayers money to supply to gangsters banks to put into the furnace of devil i.e. market shares.

[peter.wedemeier1]

JP Morgan and Citi drama & saga
As state elsewhere, US political power gave fresh money to this two leader gangster banks for buy a little shares with left hand and under the table (i.e. Bush establish.including greenspot) that was wiped out in two stright days in a affair rear the door, and with the right hand the rulers give more money to the same gangster system via IMF-Brasil 30 bln. It`s disgusting!!! Who believe this rulers to fool? In this contest GOLD should have gone to the moon!!! America next in a liquidity trap, take a look to retailer prices next autumn not to FED.

[svc]

jpm wird nie insolvenz anmelden, es sei denn, jemand möchte, dass das gesamte weltfinanzsystem zerbricht - vielleicht die morgans.

svc

[macvin]

Warum muss es eigentlich eine US-Investmentbank sein, die als erster Dominostein umfällt? Da gibt es schließlich auch noch Japan mit einer Unzahl von Banken, deren faule Kredite deutlich zugenommen haben. Der Nikkei ist auch nicht gerade auf Höchststand, der nächste Quartalsabschluss naht langsam. Der Yen zeigt sich keinesfalls schwach gegenüber Dollar und Euro und die Währungsrückflüsse nach Japan könnten in den nächsten Wochen noch deutlich zunehmnen. Nicht schön für Japans Exporte...

Nichts ist schlimmer für die labile japanische Wirtschaft als ein steigender Yen. Der Druck auf Japans Banken könnte also wachsen. Und wenn die Japaner, deren Spareinlagen ja zunehmend ungesichert sind, erstmal anfangen, ihre Guthaben abzuholen und unter die Matratze zu legen (oder Gold zu kaufen oder Euro oder ???), wenn japanische Fonds/Versicherungen plötzlich stärkere Abflüsse/Einbrüche verzeichnen, dann ....

Nur ein Gedanke...
macvin

[peter.wedemeier1]

Thanks for indication, but i was already learned that the two banks are in a deep trouble: the Citigroup has made disaster all over the world with his "structured financial products" like options and covered warrants that are a mastodon fraud to all little investors. The avidity and dishonesty of this banks are notorious to many people around the world and when some people will do some blast against their shops, THAN this guys have no to cry, nor have to lament if somebody shoot on the face of their managers in some "stupid meeting" they sometime organize here and there. Worse, to corroborate my thesis that we are facing a great threat against unknoledged people by this guys, note that the security arm of Citi, involved in subpoena you mention, is Salomon Smith Barney (already the name is all a programme) and you know for which were working Mr. Greenspan before taking office at the FED: exactly Salomon. So the count is squared!

[africando]

Eine Frage an Herrn Oberlehrer Wedemeier:

Sie schreiben hier immer so tolle Postings auf Englisch, die wahrscheinlich alle aus dem Netz geklaut sind und die nicht wirklich viele vom Hocker reißt.

Können Sie mal in eigenen kurzen, knappen Worten formulieren, wie Ihrer Meinung nach das Szenario beginnened mit einem möglichen Bankenkonkurs hin zu einer vielleicht neuen internationalen Finanzwelt unter Einbeziehung von Gold und Silber auch unter dem Aspekt einer explodierenden chinesischen Volkswirtschaft und der einhergehenden Globalisierung und unter Außerachtlassung der derzeitigen klimatischen Veränderung aussehen könnte?

Ein kleiner Zweizeiler vielleicht?

[peter.wedemeier1]

Time is GOD property not JP & Citi
for their hedging forward, put call options, using time for fool people. Gangsters banks system will be punished by GOD, the Sublime, for this misuse and sin against any elementary human fairness in doing business and with all losses accumulate rightnow, aspect this guys to beg in Bowery Street instead to play as financial supermen in Wall Street. Exactly AT WALL! They are in a moribund state as is the capitalism in a large sense. Somebody may help this banks, some bucks pls for this lurid beggars to help when you walk down? But in fiat currency pls as they act not GOLD, GOLD coins or bars everyone holding them as given to enjoy life by the benevolence of GOD, are not to give for this kind of beggars. Misery of one time superb financers. Take the pundits of this field, gaining million of dollars per year, to say that Japan was crashing down the global economy when they know perfectly that if something like this may happen, it`s by the united states of america, MOROONS!

[peter.wedemeier1]

"hei,JP Morgan, expense put options on GOLD
instead to laugh at to expense options in the sense of managers, employees, and even porter and camerero that bring "capuccino" to employees, note Reuters new. Nobody belive you wanting believing poor investors into your putrid shares you are fair people as like as your rival (so reuters call Citi, moron, they are mate in business to push down GOLD and drive the markets under order of US Government. This guys seems not aware at all that the game is over for them. If this crooks want once again respect are obliged to show HOW THEY GAIN MONEY just to the last cent in a clear and simply fashion that must be understandable to the last harbour worker. Loan this side, when cashed, speculation this side one to one, with date, counterpart, expiring date, gains or loss, shared by type: shares, metals, forex etc. and moreafter they HAVE TO PRODUCE ALL ACCOUNTS IN GOLD PRICE, not in paper currency. Than and only than, people will be able to see if this guy are CROOK or not. Rightnow they are!"

[Potosi]

@ keepit + all

was haltet Ihr davon ?

Citi put JPM 640688, Basispreis 20 US$, Verfall 22.7.03,

Brief aktuell 0,34 c

??

Gruß Potosi

[keepitshort]

@Potosi

habe mit Optionsscheinen "gute und schlechte"
Erfahrungen gemacht.

die Vola und der Zeitwert machen dich kaputt

kauf lieber eine Aktien und setzt auf einen
Trend von ca. 6 Monaten

Gold u. Silberaktien dürften die nächsten 6 Monate
nach oben laufen.

Hecla, Coeur-d-alene, Durban Roodport Drooy,
Bema
da gibts noch eine ganze Reihe Aktien die sich
wie Optionsscheine ohne Laufzeit und ohne
Aufgeld verhalten.

[Vetinari]

JP Morgan`s Gold Bullion Risk Mgr Leaves Company

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Story Filed: Monday, August 19, 2002 12:35 PM EST

New York, Aug 19, 2002 (ODJ Select via COMTEX) -- (OsterDowJones) - Don Eckert, gold bullion risk manager at JP Morgan Chase in New York is leaving the company, he told OsterDowJones Monday. Eckert`s last day is Monday.

Eckert said that his departure comes with mutual consent and fits in with the bank`s downsizing initiative enacted in response to the slowing business levels in the gold division in the wake of the reduction in producer hedging.

"We`ve basically lost a good portion of our business through the greatly reduced producer hedging levels out there, and so the bank is cutting back personnel in the area," Eckert said.

"We`re still offering the same services as before, there`s just no need for the same amount of people anymore," he said.

The gold bullion risk outfit will now be headed by Neil Clift out of the bank`s London offices, according to Eckert.

--- Gavin Maguire, OsterDowJones, [phone] [e-mail]


(C) Copyright 2002 ODJ

http://library.northernlight.com/FD20020819450000153.html?cb…

[Basic]

Und weiter im Text

misetich (08/21/02; 22:21:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 83480)
J.P. Morgan Chase Ratings May Be Cut
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20020821_524.html
Snip:

Aug. 21
— By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Moody`s Investors Service on Wednesday threatened to cut J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.`s <JPM.N> long-term ratings, expressing concern about the Wall Street bank`s profits and the degree to which Enron Corp.`s<ENRNQ.PK> bankruptcy may hurt J.P. Morgan`s reputation

The warning affects $42.4 billion of debt at the No. 2 U.S. bank holding company, formed in December 2000 from the merger of Chase Manhattan and J.P. Morgan, and follows a similar action last Thursday by Standard & Poor`s Ratings Services.

Moody`s said it may cut J.P. Morgan Chase`s "Aa3" senior unsecured debt, its fourth highest grade. It affirmed J.P. Morgan`s "Prime-1" short-term ratings. Downgrades often boost borrowing costs.

"The review is much more directly tied to financial performance and fundamental issues," said Peter Nerby, a Moody`s senior vice president, in an interview. "The company has suffered from a profitability point of view over the last few quarters since the nerger, and that may continue."

Nerby added that "some of the reputational hits that J.P. Morgan has suffered could affect fundamental financial performance going forward, although that`s very, very hard to quantify."
...............
Moody`s said J.P. Morgan`s strategy to combine commercial and investment banking "has met mixed success," and that its Enron ties might subject it to more regulatory scrutiny and expensive litigation.
*********
Misetich

JP Morgan - ANOTHER warning - preparing the markets for the inevitable -

Got gold?

[konradi]

(...)
Schon am Donnerstag dürfte der Dow wieder im Minus eröffnen, was an Verlusten für JP Morgan liegen würde. Die Experten der Rating-Agentur Moody’s haben am Mittwoch nach Börsenschluss angekündigt, man würde unter Umständen die Kreditwürdigkeit der zweitgrößten US-Bank abstufen. Eine ähnliche Drohung kam bereits in der vergangenen Woche vom Konkurrenten Standard & Poor’s.

© Wall Street Correspondents, Inc.

[Basic]

DOW über 9000.....

Top 99 Current Bond Issuers
Only Three Are AAA Rated...A Clue to the Economy`s Status
Investment Grade Bond Issuer [S&P]____Coupon__Maturity____Rating
Merck & Co. Inc.____________________ 6.40____03/01/28____AAA
Mobil Corp.________________________ 8.63____08/15/21____AAA
Warner-Lambert Co.__________________6.00____01/15/08____AAA
Atlantic Richfield Co._________________ 5.90____04/15/09_____AA+
Abbott Laboratories Inc._______________ 5.63____07/01/06____AA
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co._____________ 6.80____11/15/26_____AA
Kimberly-Clark Corp._________________ 6.25____07/15/18____AA
Lilly (Eli) & Co.______________________ 7.13____06/01/25____AA
Wal-Mart Stores Inc._________________ 6.88____08/10/09_____AA
DuPont (E.I.) De Nemours & Co._______ 6.88____10/15/09_____AA-
Illinois Tool Works Inc._______________ 5.75____03/01/09_____AA-
Procter & Gamble Co._______________ 6.88____09/15/09_____AA-
Alcoa Inc._________________________ 7.38____08/01/10_____A+
Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc.____________ 6.80____01/15/31_____A+
Archer Daniels Midland Co.___________ 8.38____04/15/17_____A+
Caterpillar Inc.______________________ 8.00____02/15/23____A+
Cingular Wireless LLC_______________ 7.13____12/15/31_____A+
Electronic Data Systems Corp._________ 7.13____10/15/09_____A+
International Business Machines Corp.___5.38____02/01/09_____A+
Loews Corp._______________________ 7.00____10/15/23_____A+
McDonnell Douglas Corp.____________ 9.75____04/01/12_____A+
Sara Lee Corp._____________________ 6.25____09/15/11____A+
Target Corp._______________________ 7.50____02/15/05_____A+
United Technologies Corp.____________ 8.88____11/15/19_____A+
Campbell Soup Co._________________ 6.90____10/15/06_____A
Cintas Corporation No. 2_____________ 6.00____06/01/12_____A
Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.____________ 6.95____11/15/26_____A
Dow Chemical Co. (The)_____________ 7.38____11/01/29______A
Emerson Electric Co.________________ 5.00____10/15/08______A
Fortune Brands Inc._________________ 6.25____04/01/08_____A
Gannett Co._______________________ 6.38____04/01/12_____A
Heinz (H.J.) Co.____________________6.38____07/15/28_____A
Honeywell International Inc.___________7.50____03/01/10_____A
Lowe`s Cos. Inc.____________________ 8.25___06/01/10_____A
May Department Stores Co.___________ 6.70___09/15/28_____A
Rockwell Automation, Inc.____________ 6.15____01/15/08_____A
Times Mirror Co.___________________ 6.61____09/15/27_____A
Vodafone Americas Asia Inc.__________ 6.35____06/01/05_____A
Apache Corp.______________________ 6.25____04/15/12_____A-
Deere & Co._______________________ 6.55____10/01/28_____A-
Disney (Walt) Co.___________________ 6.75____03/30/06_____A-
Halliburton Co._____________________ 6.00____08/01/06_____A-
Hewlett-Packard Co._________________ 7.15____06/15/05_____A-
Kraft Foods Inc.____________________ 5.63____11/01/11_____A-
Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. (The)_________7.00____03/01/29_____A-
Rohm and Haas Co.________________ 7.85____07/15/29_____A-
Sears Roebuck & Co.________________9.38____11/01/11_____A-
Viacom Inc.________________________7.75____06/01/05_____A-
Marathon Oil Co.____________________6.80____03/15/32____BBB+
Tosco Corp._______________________ 8.13____02/15/30___BBB+
Albertson`s Inc. ____________________ 7.45____08/01/29____BBB+
Time Warner Inc.___________________ 6.63____05/15/29____BBB+
Conoco Inc._______________________ 6.95____04/15/29____BBB+
Anadarko Petroleum Corp.___________ 7.20____03/15/29____BBB+
Union Oil Co. of California____________7.50____02/15/29____BBB+
Ford Motor Co._____________________ 6.38____02/01/29___BBB+
General Motors Corp.________________ 6.75____05/01/28___BBB+
Dell Computer Corp._________________7.10____04/15/28____BBB+
Ingersoll-Rand Co.__________________9.00____08/15/21____BBB+
Masco Corp._______________________7.13____08/15/13____BBB+
General Mills Inc.___________________ 6.00____02/15/12____BBB+
Federated Department Stores Inc.______ 6.63____04/01/11____BBB+
ConAgra Foods Inc._________________ 6.00____09/15/06____BBB+
Sun Microsystems Inc.______________-_7.50____08/15/06_____BBB+
Olsten Corp._______________________ 7.00___03/15/06____BBB+
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.____ 6.38____12/15/05____BBB+
TCI Communications Inc._____________ 8.00____08/01/05____BBB+
Amerada Hess Corp.________________ 7.88____10/01/29____BBB
Delphi Corp._______________________ 7.13____05/01/29____BBB
Neiman Marcus Group, Inc. (The)_______ 7.13____06/01/28____BBB
Occidental Petroleum Corp.___________ 7.20____04/01/28____BBB
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.____________ 7.63____03/15/27____BBB
Westvaco Corp.____________________ 7.65____03/15/27____BBB
International Paper Co._______________ 6.88____11/01/23____BBB
Consolidated Rail Corp.______________ 9.75____06/15/20____BBB
Norfolk Southern Corp.______________ 7.70____05/15/17____BBB
Weyerhaeuser Co.__________________ 7.25____07/01/13____BBB
Visteon Corp.______________________ 8.25____08/01/10____BBB
Lockheed Martin Corp._______________ 8.20____12/01/09____BBB
Safeway Inc._______________________ 6.50____11/15/08____BBB
CSX Corp.________________________ 6.25____10/15/08____BBB
Union Pacific Corp.__________________ 6.63____02/01/08____BBB
Comcast Cable Communications Inc.____ 7.63____01/02/08____BBB
Kerr-McGee Corp.___________________ 6.63____10/15/07____BBB
TRW Inc.__________________________ 8.75____05/15/06____BBB
Motorola Inc.______________________ 6.75____02/01/06____BBB
Cox Communications Inc.____________ 6.88____06/15/05____BBB
Valero Energy Corp.________________ 8.38____06/15/05____BBB
SuperValu Inc._____________________ 7.63____09/15/04____BBB
Cendant Corp._____________________ 7.75____12/01/03____BBB
Northrop Grumman Corp.____________ 7.75____02/15/31____BBB-
News America Inc.__________________ 7.13____04/08/28____BBB-
Kroger Co.________________________ 8.05____02/01/10____BBB-
Liberty Media Corp._________________ 7.88____07/15/09____BBB-
NCR Corp._______________________ 7.13____06/15/09____BBB-
Raytheon Co._____________________ 6.75____08/15/07____BBB-
Centex Corp._____________________ 8.75____03/01/07____BBB-
Clear Channel Communications Inc.___ 7.88____06/15/05____BBB-
International Speedway Corp.________ 7.88____10/15/04____BBB-



LOL Basic

[keepitshort]

Top 99 Current Bond Issuers
Only Three Are AAA Rated...A Clue to the Economy`s Status
Investment Grade Bond Issuer [S&P]____Coupon__Maturity____Rating
Merck & Co. Inc.____________________ 6.40____03/01/28____AAA
Mobil Corp.________________________ 8.63____08/15/21____AAA


eine 10-jährige US-Staatsanleihe bringt ca. 4,3%
da ist man doch doof wenn man US-Staatsanleihen kauft

wenn eine triple-A-Anleihe 6,4% bringt
denn am Ende der Laufzeit bekomme ich ja wieder mein
eingesetztes Kapital voll zurück.
Auser die Firma Meck würde pleite gehen.

oder bedeutet dies das die Zinsen steigen werden ???

[Basic]

Hallo Keepit,
genau das ist das Problem,
selbst wenn die Unternehmen mit AAA eingestuft wird, weiss keiner wegen dieser Bilanzierungstricks ob das so bleibt.

Wenn dann die Firma runtergestuft wird, steigen die Verpflichtungen für den Schuldendienst, die nächste Abstufung steht ins Haus. Es kommt vor, dass eine Firma so schnell nach unten rutscht.

Willst du dann vorzeitig verkaufen sind grosse Abschlage möglich, die grösser als die Zinsen sein können. Bei zahlungsunfähigkeit bleibt ja noch der Klageweg

Wenn nun aber viele Firmen schon wie 3. Welt Länder eingestuft werden ist ein DOW von 9000 aberwitzig.

Das ist zwar nicht neues, Zahlen machen es aber immer wieder deutlich.

Gruß Basic

[konradi]

HANDELSBLATT, Freitag, 23. August 2002


Ermittlungen gegen Citigroup ausgeweitet


Die Staatsanwaltschaft des US-Bundesstaates New York hat ihre Ermittlungen gegen den weltgrößten Finanzkonzern Citigroup ausgeweitet. Dabei geht es um die Frage, ob Citigroup versucht hat, mit Blick auf den Börsengang der Mobilfunktochter der US-Telefongesellschaft AT&T den Kurs der Aktien in die Höhe zu treiben.


Reuters NEW YORK. Eine Sprecherin von AT&T bestätigte am Freitag, der New Yorker Generalstaatsanwalt Eliot Spitzer habe das Unternehmen aufgefordert, die Unterlagen zu dieser Emission auszuhändigen.

Der ehemalige Telekom-Star-Analyst der Citigroup-Investmentbank-Tochter Salomon Smith Barney, Jack Grubman, hatte die Bewertung für AT&T im Oktober 1999 auf "buy" heraufgestuft - kurz bevor AT&T ihre Mobilfunktochter an die Börse brachte. Salomon Smith Barney gehörte seinerzeit zusammen mit Merrill Lynch und Goldman Sachs zum Emissionskonsortium für die AT&T-Mobilfunktochter. Die Ermittlungen der Staatsanwaltschaft konzentrieren sich nun auf die Rolle von Citigroup-Chef Sanford Weill. Spitzer will einem Bericht des "Wall Street Journal" zufolge herausfinden, ob Weill Druck auf Grubman ausgeübt hat, das Rating für AT&T anzuheben, um von der Emission zu profitieren.

Citigroup wies die Vorwürfe scharf zurück. Eine Salomon-Sprecherin sagte, Weill habe niemals einem Analysten gesagt, was dieser schreiben solle. "Jede derartige Vermutung ist empörend und unwahr", fügte sie hinzu.

Staatsanwälte ermitteln bereits seit geraumer Zeit gegen Citigroup im Zusammenhang mit dem Zusammenbruch des Energiehändlers Enron und der Pleite des Telekomkonzerns Worldcom.

In Spitzers Büro war zunächst niemand für eine Stellungnahme zu erreichen. Aus Kreisen der Behörden erfuhr Reuters jedoch, dass Spitzer möglicherweise innerhalb der nächsten Wochen eine Stellungnahme zu Grubman und Salomon abgeben werde.

Spitzer ermittelt auch gegen andere Investmentbanken der Wall Street. Er will dabei herausfinden, ob Investmentbanker Druck auf Analysten ausgeübt haben, Aktien in ihren Berichten in einem besonders günstigen Licht erscheinen zu lassen, um sich Verträge für die Übernahme von Wertpapieremissionen ("Underwriting") und für Beratung zu sichern.

Die Investmentbank Merrill Lynch hatte sich im Mai mit Spitzer auf die Zahlung von 100 Mill. $ geeinigt. Merrill Lynch war vorgeworfen worden, sich durch manipulierte Aktienempfehlungen Honorare der betreffenden Unternehmen gesichert zu haben. Das Institut gestand jedoch bislang kein Fehlverhalten ein.

Citigroup-Aktien verloren an der Börse in New York mehr als drei Prozent auf 34,10 $. Seit Jahresanfang haben die Papiere damit mehr als 30 % ihres Wertes verloren.

[SchwarzGold]

@kis,#67, Merck-Anleihe:
Der Kupon einer Anleihe ist nicht deren Rendite.
Um die berechnen zu können, musst Du erst einmal
den Kurs der Anleihe kennen.
Gruß SchwarzGold

[keepitshort]

@SchwarzGold

mit dem Coupon hat Du schon Recht
aber ich versuche mein Nichtwissen mit
Kombinatorik auszugleichen.

da mir manchmal etwas die Hintergrund-Info fehlt
nehme ich immer die Sachen her die ich noch im
Hinterkopf habe.

die Telekom hat aber Anleihen rausgebracht mit einer
Rendite von ca. 8%

da Merck aber eine bessere Bonität hat als die
Deutsche Telekom so dürfte die Rendite bei ca.
6,0% hinkommen.

Fazit: die US-Staatsanleihen werden in der Rendite steigen
und nicht bei ca. 4,2% stehen bleiben.

4,5% , 4,8% für 10-jährige US-Staatsanleihen
das ist meine Vision.

[peter.wedemeier1]

"Ah Ah Citi & JP dropping like stone in water!
Unfortunately to day august 14, another time Bush & Greens and related gangster will give other money to this mates for buy a little grape of shares and GOLD down once again, GOLD cannot go higher, sorry. Americans has no idea of what means GOLD and fiet currency as correctly stated by Superbeast, so the crooks can do the good and the bad weather when they want on the shoulder of savers. Americans have to wape-up!"
So i said 06,30 ET, so happened
US rulers and allied gangsters bank system are doing what they want in a despreciated fashion on all markets with the money of the Treasure: they buy when ingenous savers sell, they sell when the man of the street buy hoping to gain, make-up so stupid by american media system allied too. FREE MARKET, YEAAA!! but only for the Power, you americans are only free to loose money. Note the to day selling of gold. This american crooks at the power, and in office because elected by you, are taking you for ass. Wake up americans!! You are under a tough stalinistic system, same materialism, same dictature, but without almost some jobs supply by the communist system i.e. worse of stalin or better say a face than shows signs of heavy drinking, that`s that of Mr. President."
" JP Morgan Enron loses (so far)
It looks like J P Morgan has lost $3.7B. and more then likely higher.

www.thedeal.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=TheDeal/TDDArticle/TDStandardArticle&Box1=NULL&Box2=NULL&banner=NULL&c=TDDArticle&cid=1029203787580 "

"J P Morgan rating may be lowered soon
S & P maay lower J P Morgan`s (and others) rating soon.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/Sto…

"J P Morgan rating may be lowered soon
Interesting item on MSN Money about firms that show big EBITDA an low tax payout. Legit companes like Walmart and Proctor and Gamble have the earnings and pay the tax, sleaze like JPM and Citi do a magic act after they count the money. If theyll help cook someone else`s boks there isn`t much hope for their own accounting. And these guys own the federal Reserve Bank of NY. God help America."

Three copany officers from Eron.....
Three company officers from Enron are to make depositions about the energy trade deals with Mahonia Ltd, an offshore entity controlled by J.P. Morgan.

Enron would sell "gas" to J.P. Morgan (thru Mahonia) then at a later date Enron would buy the "gas" back at a higher price.

"J.P. Morgan is sueing some insurance companies that they say guaranteed with `surety bonds" the series of failed energy trades between Enron and Mahonia. The insurance companies have refusing to pay, claiming the trades were nothing but loans by J.P. Morgan to Enron.

Could be interesting."

"Time to short the stock,as the criminality of their business
activities ,including suppressing gold is unravelled and
exposed with links straight to the fed.

Their derivatives are estimated to be as large as the U.S
foreign and domestic debt.

How much gold they are short and at what price is a mystery,
but 400-500 gold should cause them some big pains,maybe
even if we`re lucky,its the end of them and the reserve bank
in N.Y,then people will be SCREAMING BUY GOLD!!!"

[konradi]

Hello Peter,
this statement comes from our friend "GOLDONLY" -
isn´t it ?

[peter.wedemeier1]

Citi with water to the mouth
No problem: all will be solved with aid from the fascists senior rulers of US. Citi, after having selling garbage here and there, particularly Worldcom when they know the matter, call all this "industry NORM" = is the same to say. for me Weil, patented jew with a learned rabbi that tech exactly that, to fool people is the NORM. Right, moron! "Algo grave de puede pasar, maricon!" The other mate Mr. Bush is praising prince of Saudi Arabia for "eternal friendship" WHAT? One of the most avid and criminal sybarite dictator in the world acting against any elementary rules of islamic law and sold out to jew mafia, Bush want "eternal (?) friendship", this way qualifying himself too and praising do not sell some 400 bln $ of arabian holding in US bonds. Explain to your people instead what kind of friends you praise to have!!

[peter.wedemeier1]

Can`t beat them join them.
This US born facist, hell bent on domination of planet, thinks Mexico is going to the next country to default on their debt. Giving the Saudi owned (5%+) Citigroup even less fiat to buy gold with just as the price is going up. But what do I care? Don`t go to sleep at night we maybe bombing in a city near you real soon. Now if you`ll excuse me I have to go raping and pillaging. :-)

Gold Rules. Down with fiat.

[goldenboi]

"A high gold price would certainly bankrupt JP Morgan."

Hugh Hendry
Odey Assett Management

(auf CNBC)

[kaepntnemo]

von heute:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/sinclair/090302.htm
have fun
-nemo-

[konradi]

ist ja auch nicht uninteressant:

UBS kauft Merrill Lynch - "Hirngespinst"?

Die Schweizer Großbank UBS plant offenbar eine Übernahme der amerikanischen Investmentbank Merrill Lynch. Das berichtet die "Börsen-Zeitung" und beruft sich auf Informationen aus dem Umfeld der beteiligten Unternehmen. UBS-Verwaltungsratspräsident Ospel sei ernsthaft an Merrill Lynch interessiert. US-Händler sprechen von einem "Hirngespinst".

Merrill Lynch gilt der "Börsen-Zeitung" zufolge bereits seit längerem als Übernahmekandidat. Beweggrund für dei UBS zu einer Übernahme könnte die bislang unzureichende Präsenz auf dem US-amerikanischen Markt sein. Zwar ist die Großbank über PaineWebber bereits auf dem US-amerikanischen Markt vertreten, doch der Vermögensverwalter bereitet UBS offenbar Probleme. Im zweiten Quartal 2002 hat PaineWebber den Angaben zufolge einen Vorsteuerverlust in Höhe von 137 Mio. Schweizer Franken ausgewiesen.

Sollte es tatsächlich zu einer Übernahme von Merrill Lynch durch UBS kommen, dann dürfte dies Entlassungen in größerem Stil, nicht nur in den USA, nach sich ziehen, denn beide Unternehmen überschneiden sich teilweise erheblich. Experten rechnen angesichts der unverminderten Schwäche der Kapitalmärkte ohnehin mit weiteren Entlassungen in der Branche. Händler in New York bezeichneten die Spekulationen um eine Übernahme von Merrill Lynch durch UBS als "Hirngespinst".

[konradi]

aus der "Zeit" 37 / 02 :

Groß, größer, korrupt


Finanzriesen wie die amerikanische Citigroup stehen unter Beschuss: Ihre Analysten haben gelogen, ihre Broker manipuliert. Wall Street fragt sich: Wie groß ist zu groß?

von Thomas Fischermann


Von seinem Bürofenster im 32. Stock hat Jacob Zamansky einen Ausblick, der ihm gefällt: Feindesland. Die Kanzlei des 48-jährigen Anwalts, ein paar Schritte von der Wall Street entfernt, liegt im Herzen der New Yorker Finanzwelt. Da kennen sie Zamansky inzwischen bestens: Er war es, der im vergangenen Frühjahr den Staranalysten Henry Blodget wegen falscher Versprechungen und hochgejubelter Internet-Aktien verklagte - und dann völlig überraschend von Blodgets Arbeitgeber, der Investmentbank Merrill Lynch, eine Vergleichszahlung über 400 000 Dollar bekam. Zamanskys Telefon klingelt jetzt an die 100-mal pro Tag, er will sich einen Analysten nach dem anderen vorknöpfen. "Die haben die High-Tech-Blase künstlich aufgeblasen und Aktionäre an der Nase herumgeführt", sagt der Anwalt. "Held der Anleger" nannte ihn das Magazin Fortune.

Es könnte passieren, dass Zamansky in seiner Nachbarschaft noch kräftig umräumt. "Es wird eine Welle von Klagen geben", erwartet James Moss, der bei der Ratingagentur Fitch für die Risikoabschätzung der Bankenbranche zuständig ist. "Einige Verfahren werden Erfolge zeigen" und "die Art und Weise ändern, wie Banken mit ihren Kunden umgehen". Andere sehen es drastischer: "Das Ende einer Ära an der Wall Street" sei gekommen, sagt der ehemalige Hedgefonds-Manager und Finanzmarktveteran Andy Keller. Das Ende "für große, häßliche Unternehmen".

Die Giganten der Wall Street sind in Ungnade gefallen. Merrill Lynch zum Beispiel, die größte Investmentbank der Welt: Merrill-Analysten wie Blodget hatten den Anlegern nicht nur zweifelhafte High-Tech-Aktien ans Herz gelegt - derzeit laufen Untersuchungen, ob Merrill-Bankiers einigen Firmen auch beim Frisieren der Bücher halfen. Oder JP Morgan Chase, die Nummer zwei im Bankengewerbe der USA: Ihr rasant wachsendes Geschäft mit der Finanzierung von Unternehmen soll sie darauf aufgebaut haben, dass sie Firmenkunden billige Kredite anbot, im Gegenzug für lukrative Geschäfte rund um das Platzieren von Aktien.

Ins Gerede gekommen ist auch das mit einem Vermögenswert von etwa einer Billion Dollar größte Finanzhaus der Welt, die Citigroup. Durch Zukäufe und Fusionen hat Citi-Chef Sanford Weill sein Imperium in den neunziger Jahren an die Spitze geführt, der Konzern zählt 270 000 Mitarbeiter - mehr als die vier größten deutschen Banken zusammen. Brancheninsidern gilt der Unternehmenschef als einer der aggressivsten Manager am Finanzplatz New York überhaupt. Doch in diesen Tagen frisst Weill lieber Kreide: Er hat die Fahnder im Nacken.

Ein Untersuchungsausschuss des US-Kongresses hat bei der Citigroup-Investmentbank Salomon Smith Barney um einen ganzen Berg von Unterlagen gebeten - die Banker sollen bitte erklären, wie gewisse Kunden des Hauses auf dem Höhepunkt des Internet-Booms plötzlich äußerst lukrative Aktienpakete in die Hände bekamen. Zum Beispiel Bernard Ebbers, der ehemalige Chef des Telekom-Konzerns Worldcom, der inzwischen als größter Pleitier aller Zeiten einen festen Platz in der amerikanischen Wirtschaftsgeschichte hat. Der Verdacht: Salomon habe Ebbers und andere Kunden beim Börsengang von High-Tech-Unternehmen stets besonders gut bedacht und ihnen heiße Papiere zum Ausgabepreis zugeschachert. Was dann passierte, ist bekannt: Im Überschwang der neunziger Jahre verwandelten sich viele Aktien binnen Stunden in Millionen- und Milliardenwerte.

Für Salomon ist das aber nur der jüngste einer ganzen Latte von Vorwürfen. Jack Grubman, der kürzlich abgetretene Telekommunikationsanalyst des Finanzhauses, hatte es offenbar ähnlich getrieben wie sein Kollege Blodget von Merrill Lynch. Er empfahl Anlegern munter die Papiere zweifelhafter Telekommunikationsfirmen (darunter - Überraschung! - Worldcom) - und trat dort zugleich als Berater auf, saß in Vorstandssitzungen mit am Tisch und überredete angeblich die Telekomchefs zu Deals mit seinem Arbeitgeber. Der New Yorker Generalstaatsanwalt Eliot Spitzer hat bei Salomon alle Unterlagen über einen gewaltigen Deal zwischen Salomon und dem Telekomriesen AT&T aus dem Jahr 2000 bestellt. Vor dem Deal hatte Grubman nämlich überraschend seinen Ton geändert und AT&T plötzlich seinen Anlegern warm empfohlen. Spitzer will auch herausfinden, ob Grubmans Chefs - darunter Sanford Weill - an diesem Meinungswechsel beteiligt waren.

Eine Hand wäscht die andere

Wenn sich all die Vorwürfe bewahrheiten, sind die großen Finanzhäuser Amerikas möglicherweise ein gewaltiger Konstruktionsfehler: Sie stecken bis zum Hals in Interessenkonflikten. Mit der einen Hand schließen sie lukrative Finanzierungsgeschäfte mit ihren Unternehmenskunden ab und bemühen sich, deren Aktien und Anleihen zu "platzieren". Mit der anderen verkaufen sie eben diese Papiere an Pensionsfonds und Privatkunden weiter, nicht selten mit glühenden Analystenberichten als einer Art Verkaufsprospekt. Mit den "chinesischen Mauern" zwischen ihren Unternehmensbereichen sind etliche Analysten und ihre Vorgesetzten dabei offenbar wie die Mongolen umgegangen.

Neu sind solche Probleme nicht. Schon nach dem Weltbörsencrash von 1929 erließ der US-Kongress Gesetze, die Banken, Broker und Versicherer sauber auseinander halten und Interessenkonflikte damit vermeiden sollten. 70 Jahre später - nach jahrelangem Lobbying der Bankenbranche - wurden diese Gesetze wieder abgeschafft. Jetzt geht die Sache von vorn los. Spekulationen machen die Runde, dass sich der Trend zum "Finanz-Supermarkt", zum finanziellen one stop shop, wieder umkehren könnte. Zwar plant in Washington noch niemand konkret die Rückkehr zum Trennbankensystem, aber "die Banken werden ganz von alleine auf die Idee kommen, die ein oder anderen Dinge wieder abzutrennen", glaubt Gerhard Summerer, Präsident der DG European Securities in New York. Samuel Hayes, Bankexperte an der Harvard Business School, ging in der Business Week sogar noch weiter: "Ich sage voraus, dass die großen Konglomerate sich wieder auflösen".

Das wichtigste Argument: Im Bankgeschäft ist ein guter Ruf Gold wert. Der Discountbroker Charles Schwab versucht, die Schwäche seiner großen Konkurrenten bereits auszuschlachten und schaltet aggressive Anzeigen: "Fakten, kein Hype" biete das Unternehmen den Anlegern. Unabhängige Analyseinstitute, die ihre Berichte für Geld verkaufen statt für Gefälligkeiten, sind im Aufwind. Und in manchen Analysen über Finanzkonglomerate à la Citigroup fällt neuerdings das Wort von der "negativen Synergie": dass der Gesamtkonzern vielleicht weniger wert sei als die Summe seiner Teile.

Kosmetische Reformen werden da kaum reichen, um die großen Banken wieder aus den Schlagzeilen verschwinden zu lassen, allein schon, weil sich die Anwälte gerade erst warm laufen. Vom Analystenjäger Jacob Zamansky bis zur großen Wirtschaftskanzlei Wolf Haldenstein sammeln amerikanische Juristen in diesen Tagen eifrig "Opfer" für ihre Sammelklagen. Große Pensionsfonds wie der kalifornische Calpers-Fonds haben ebenfalls rechtliche Schritte gegen ihre Broker eingeleitet. Staatlichen Untersuchungen präsentieren ihnen die Beweismittel quasi auf dem Silbertablett: Der New Yorker Generalstaatsanwalt zum Beispiel, der bereits bei etlichen Banken die internen Emails durchforstet hat, will sich als Nächstes die Jahresendberichte etlicher Analysten vorlegen lassen. In solchen Berichten schreiben Analysten einmal im Jahr ihren Chefs, warum sie künftig mehr Gehalt bekommen sollten - und nicht wenige begründeten das offenbar damit, dass sie der Bank neue Deals mit "ihren" Unternehmen einbrachten.

Wie die Klagen ausgehen, gilt im Augenblick als völlig offen. An US-Gerichten ist "bekanntlich nichts unmöglich", sagt Rodgin Cohen, Bankrechtler bei der Kanzlei Sullivan & Cromwell in New York. Einziger Anhaltspunkt ist bislang die Investmentbank Merrill Lynch, die sich im Skandal um ihren Internet-Analysten Blodget mit dem Staatsanwalt Eliot Spitzer auf 100 Millionen Strafe einigte. Doch Spitzer sagte in einem Interview voraus: "Das ist nur ein Bruchteil dessen, was die an privaten Vergleichszahlungen leisten werden."

Immerhin: Die Kurse von Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan und der Citigroup sind seit den Skandalen kräftig gefallen - und die ersten Zocker wetten schon darauf, dass der finanziell am meisten angeschlagene Finanzriese JP Morgan in ernste Schwierigkeiten geraten könnte. "Wir haben den Bankrott mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 20 bis 30 Prozent angesetzt", erklärt der Händler eines New Yorker Hedgefonds. JP Morgan hatte sich zuletzt gleich mehrfach schwer verspekuliert: Man hatte den Pleiteunternehmen Enron, Global Crossing und Kmart gewaltige Kredite gegeben und in der Argentinien-Krise viel Geld verloren. Die Spekulation: Eine Welle von Skandalen gibt dem Giganten den Rest

"Werden die Broker und Investmentbanker zur Asbestindustrie der 2000er?", fragt denn auch Gerhard Summerer, Präsident der DG European Securities. Zur Erinnerung: Asbestverarbeiter hatten Jahrzehnte mit Klagen in aller Welt zu kämpfen. Richtig erholt haben sich die Unternehmen von dieser Klagewelle nie.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Citigroup and J P Morgans Lates Troubles
The lates news on what the good old boys are up to.

Citigroup May Pay $200 Mln in FTC Case
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc is close to an agreement with the Federal Trade Commission to pay about $200 million to settle allegations of "predatory lending" to consumers, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

[peter.wedemeier1]

I guess that`s why
I guess that is why Citigroup`s consumer loan division was investigated, and stated to be part of the problem too.

Both banks are major players in the gold furtures market and as such I feel it only predunt to know what kind of shape they are in. There hasn`t been one time on this forum where I have claimed any conspiracy. I guess your seeing conspiriacy theorists in ever shadow......

[tamara93]

Dafür, dass JP an die Wand fährt sind die news noch nicht schlecht genug, aber es geht gerade sehr schnell in Richtung 20 $

JP Morgan Chase: Maintain

11.09.2002 10:30:15

Die Analysten von Hoeffer & Arnett bewerten in ihrer Studie vom 09.09.02 die Aktie von JP Morgan Chase mit "Maintain".
Vor einigen Wochen hätten die Analysten das Rating für die Aktie des Unternehmens erhöht, da diese unter 20 Dollar gefallen sei und die Dividendenrendite nur bei 7 % gelegen habe. Das Papier habe sich seit dieser Zeit zwar wieder ein wenig erholt, jedoch werde das Unternehmen wohl seine Dividenden kürzen müssen und die Erwartungen in Bezug auf die Resultate für das Fiskaljahr 2002 herabsetzen. Des Weiteren werde das EPS für das Fiskaljahr von 2,24 Dollar auf 2,14 Dollar pro Aktie gekürzt respektive in 2003 von 3,06 Dollar auf 2,70 Dollar.

[konradi]

September 17, 2002: 8:19 PM EDT
J.P. Morgan warns on 3Q

Investment bank says that third-quarter profit will come in below 2Q level.

By Jake Ulick, CNN/Money Staff Writer

Bad loans and sluggish trading revenue hurt third-quarter profits at J.P. Morgan Chase as the investment bank Tuesday became the latest high-profile company to say quarterly results will fall short.

The news, released after the closing bell, sent shares of J.P. Morgan, the No. 2 commercial bank, down $1.68, or 8 percent, to $19.87 in after-hours trading, widening their year-to-date loss to 46 percent.

J.P. Morgan warned that third-quarter profits will fall "well below" earnings in the second quarter, when profits were 58 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by First Call had been expecting the company to earn 54 cents a share in the third quarter, on average.

"I am very disappointed with our results and take full responsibility for them," CEO William B. Harrison, Jr, said during a conference call with analysts.

Still, the company stopped short of giving specific third-quarter earnings per share guidance.


Harrison said the loan losses, which are expected to increase by approximately $1 billion, were particularly troublesome because the company had taken steps to cut its exposure to troubled telecom companies.

"In hindsight, we had too much concentration in the telecom space," Harrison said.

J.P. Morgan did not mention WorldCom, Adelphia Communications or Global Crossing, three telecom firms that went bankrupt this year. The company was a lender to Enron, which went bankrupt nine month ago, and Argentina, which defaulted on its debt.

Commercial-credit costs are expected to rise to about $1.4 billion in the third quarter from the second quarter`s $302 million, the company said.

Elsewhere, total trading revenues fell to $900,000 for the first two months of the quarter, compared with trading revenues of $1.1 billion in the second quarter. Investment securities gains of $300 million partly offset the decline.

In warning, J.P. Morgan became the latest Dow Jones industrial average component to pre-announce shortfalls for the September quarter. Both McDonald`s (MCD: Research, Estimates) and Honeywell (HON: Research, Estimates) have already disappointed investors this month.

After the warning, credit rating agencies Standard & Poor`s and Fitch Ratings downgraded Morgan`s $42.4 billion in debt, a move that could raise borrowing costs for the New York firm

Like other Wall Street firms, J.P. Morgan has suffered because of its associations with Enron. Several Morgan officers were called before Congress last month because of their alleged role in helping Enron hide debt.

Morgan, in the same press release used to lower its profit forecasts, declared a quarterly dividend of 34 cents per share payable on Oct. 31 to shareholders of record as of Oct. 5. But analysts have worried that the company will have to cut the dividend if conditions worsen.

Morgan did not say with certainty when the loan picture would improve. Nor did it rule out job cuts to save money during the downturn. But the company, at least, suggested that the outlook is not getting any worse.

"I think it`s fair to say that this quarter is not representative of the next 12 months," Harrison said.

Still, analysts peppering management with questions about specific guidance may have gone away frustrated.

"We have given you information sufficient enough to make your own estimate," Dina Dublon, Morgan`s CFO, said on the call.

A late 2000 merger between J.P. Morgan and Chase created the New York-based financial services giant, which took in $50.4 billion in revenue last year. But a consolidating industry has not yet paid off for investors.

[konradi]

[manfred1_I]

Minus 11 % für die JPM Aktie ist heftig.

[bluemoons]

J.P. Morgan - Was ist da im Busch?


J.P. Morgan (JPM)

Intradaykursstand : - 1,26% auf 18,02 $

Tageschart. Die Kurserholung ausgehend von Juli 2002 lief in Form einer bearishen Keilformation ab, deren Spitze auf die mittelfristige Abwärtstrendlinie auftraf.

--> Regelkonformer Ausbruch aus der Keilformation und nun Retest des Juli Tiefs bei 18,22 $.

Hier hat sich allerdings nun ein symmetrisches inverses Dreieck ausgebildet, das eigentlich einen BEARISHEN Charakter hat ! Demnach wird de signifikante Bruch der 18,22 $ Marke vorbereitet

[konradi]

CITIGROUP:
DUE DILIGENCE

Frustrated Citigroup holders await earnings
Firm struggles with regulators, markets

By Greg Morcroft, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Oct. 7, 2002


Citigroup investors must be a frustrated lot these days.

The company`s stock is off more than 40 percent year-to-date, regulators are questioning the honesty and integrity of its investment banking business, and concerns about problem corporate and foreign loans pummel it daily.

But while the aggressive consolidation of financial services that created Citigroup in 1998 when Wall Street legend Sandy Weill merged his Travelers Corp. with Citigroup might have contributed to the company`s current problems, that same aggressive attitude may help it lead Wall Street out of its current crisis, analysts said.

"In the context of the Citigroup franchise, $85-plus billion in equity and $16 billion in annual income, we believe the company can manage through the issues," said a research note by Deutsche Bank Securities analysts last month.

Investors will get their first taste of how bad things are -- or not -- on October 15, when Citigroup reports earnings. Analysts currently expect the company to report third-quarter profit equivalent to 73 cents per share, up from 62 cents a share in the same period last year. Against that backdrop, and the specter of a massive settlement with securities regulators over its investment banking practices, shares of the company closed at $27.98 on Friday, a dollar ahead of their 52-week low of $27, set on July 23.

Scramble to settle

Early last month, Citigroup sent the clearest message yet that it wants to put the scandals that have plagued Wall Street this year behind it when it named attorney Charles Prince to head its global investment banking business, which includes Salomon Smith Barney.

"Citi replaced the head of its investment bank with a lawyer and has shown a greater willingness to play ball with regulators versus its prior hardball tactics," Prudential analyst Mike Mayo said.

Last month Mayo became the first analyst in three years to downgrade Citigroup to a "sell" rating. Currently, Citigroup is rated a "strong buy" by 13 analysts, a "buy" by two analysts and "hold" by one, according to Thomson First Call.

Prince`s charge is to untangle the nominally independent research department, which is supposed to offer clients unbiased advice on investments, from the notoriously aggressive and competitive world of investment banking. He`s moved fast, already reaching a settlement last month with the NASD regarding former star analyst Jack Grubman and his group`s research on Salomon banking client Winstar Communications. Salomon didn`t admit or deny any wrongdoing, but paid a $5 million fine. See full story.

Citigroup has reportedly offered to spin off its research unit into a separate company, where analysts would no longer be allowed to join investment bankers doing sales pitches to prospective clients.

The offer would likely come amid a massive settlement by Citigroup -- and possibly other investment banks -- with New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt, who are leading the regulatory probes into Wall Street.

"Any settlement at this point would be sooner than we had expected," said Prudential`s Mayo, and would reflect Prince`s new management.

"I think we`re going to see a settlement where investment banking will have their own research department, but the sell side`s research will be a separate business," Keefe Bruyette and Woods analyst Mike Carasaniti said. He said traditionally there`s a restructuring of research operations coming out of bear markets. "It happens every time," Carasiniti said.

Estimates of the cost of a settlement for Citigroup vary widely.

Prudential`s Mayo had initially figured Citi`s costs to settle regulatory and civil liabilities could total about $10 billion. He now thinks that number will be smaller.

Jay Willadsen of money manager and John Hancock Financial Services affiliate Independence investments, which owns Citigroup shares in some of its funds, referred for guidance to recent high profile regulatory settlements with other businesses, including a $1.5 billion resolution of holocaust victims` claims against Swiss banks, a $3 billion settlement with automakers and the $50 billion tobacco industry settlement.

"So far none of these brokers have killed anybody," Willadsen said. "The argument could be made legally they did nothing wrong."

Keefe Bruyette`s Carasiniti thinks the ultimate cost will be about $1.5 billion. That`s much less than one quarter`s earnings for Citigroup.

Watch cost cutting, credit quality and provisions

While the company has not pre-announced any plans to charge off loans, it`s widely expected to add to its reserves for credit losses when it reports earnings next week. Some of the expected reserves will be taken from a roughly $500 million gain the firm`s expected to post from the sale of its headquarters building earlier this year, analysts said.

Several other financial institutions have recently posted or announced large charge-offs for troubled debt, particularly in the troubled telecom and technology sectors, as well as taken hits to their private and public equity portfolios.

"They`ll offset some of the real estate gain by boosting credit reserves, that`s a good thing," Keefe Bruyette`s Carasaniti said. It`s also likely that Citigroup will set aside reserves to cover expected civil and regulatory settlement costs, analysts said.

Citigroup spokeswoman Leah Thompson did not return several calls for comment for this story.

According to a research report from UBS Warburg`s Dianne Glossman, Citigroup`s senior risk officer, Petros Sabatacakis, said telecom loans, which make up about 5 percent of the firm`s total corporate loan portfolio, or about $16 billion, accounted for about one-third of total losses in 2002 year to date. He told the analyst realized losses so far this year are higher than expected. Corporate charge-offs are expected to fall in 2003, Glossman said.

Citi`s latest direct comment on credit conditions came in its second quarter 10-Q filing with the SEC. In it, the company said, "Net credit losses, delinquencies, and the related ratios may increase from the 2002 second quarter as a result of the credit performance of the portfolios, including bankruptcies, global economic conditions, portfolio growth, and seasonal factors."

And watch for more layoffs in the global investment banking business, as the firm continues to cut costs. Citigroup cut 500 jobs in its investment banking operations in the second quarter, and 250 in July, the third quarter`s first month.

Citigroup also faces risks from loans to Latin American nation`s Brazil and Argentina.

"Net credit losses and delinquencies relating to Argentina may be impacted by the local economic situation, including such factors as unemployment levels, inflation and foreign exchange rates," Citigroup said in its latest 10-Q

In Brazil, Citigroup has about $11 billion of exposure.

[back2life]

[20:11:28] MOODY`S CUTS J.P. MORGAN CHASE <JPM.N> LONG-TERM RATINGS TO A1 FROM AA3

[peter.wedemeier1]

"On Thursday, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), the nation`s second largest bank, denied speculation it was suffering from large losses on gold-linked derivatives. Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, attending the New Orleans Investment Conference, said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have dangerous exposure to gold derivatives. "It is only a matter of time before they explode and the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work together to depress the price of gold.

Murphy said central bank gold loans and swaps are around 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons and a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running about 14,000 tons. "Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and you have a gold price explosion that is just waiting to happen," he said."

Quellenangabe: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/calandra/calandra110702.ht…

[manfred1_I]

On Thursday, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), the nation`s second largest bank, denied speculation it was suffering from large losses on gold-linked derivatives.

Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, attending the New Orleans Investment Conference, said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have dangerous exposure to gold derivatives. "It is only a matter of time before they explode and the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work together to depress the price of gold.

Murphy said central bank gold loans and swaps are around 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons and a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running about 14,000 tons. "Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and you have a gold price explosion that is just waiting to happen," he said.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Reuters
UPDATE 1-J.P. Morgan denies gold loss rumors, stock down
Thursday November 7, 1:12 pm ET

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters)


http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021107/financial_jpmorgan_gold_4.htm…

Fragt sich nur, wie diese I. darauf kommen, das diese Gerüchte aus Europa kommen sollen? Wenn in dem Bericht New Orleans steht.

Gruß Peter

[peter.wedemeier1]

Das SEC sollte mal ganz schnell das Derivate Buch von JP Morgan Chase überprüfen.

Gruß Peter

[keepitshort]

kann mal einer ein Fax an JP-Morgan senden
und anfragen wann ihre Derivaten-Positionen platzen

die zweitgrösste Flugline der USA geht Pleite
da vermute ich wird die zweitgrösste Bank der USA
mit Namen JP-Morgan auch bald Pleite gehen wenn
der Goldpreis so weiter steigt.

[Gringo1]

Fiat nicht vergessen.

JPM läßt doch nichts aus

[keepitshort]

@Gringo1

das mit Fiat ist in guter Ansatz
denn den kleinen Leuten fehlt wirklich
das Geld um sich im Moment einen Fiat zu kaufen.
Arbeitslose kaufen eben kein Fiat-Auto
zumindest in Deutschland.
Auserdem ist Radfahren viel gesünder fragen
sie ruhig mal ihren Kariologen

[Biotechperle]

An solch einem Tag JPM 1% im Plus.
Da haben wohl einige nicht den Schuss gehöhrt!

Bio

[tamara93]

J.P. Morgan wegen mutmaßlicher Goldpreismanipulation angeklagt
New Orleans (vwd) - Die J.P. Morgan Chase & Co, New York, und die Barrick Gold Corp, Toronto, sind wegen der mutmaßlicher Manipulation des Goldpreises angeklagt. Die Klage wurde am Mittwoch von der in New Orleans ansässigen Blanchard & Co sowie von Kunden des Unternehmens eingereicht. Blanchard wirft den Beklagten vor, sie hätten den Goldpreis auf Kosten einzelner Investoren gedrückt und durch Short-Verkäufe zwei Mrd USD verdient. Blanchard gilt als größter Goldhändler in den USA.


vwd/DJ/18.12.2002/cn/jhe

18. Dezember 2002, 20:00

[Sovereign]

#96

"Da haben wohl einige nicht den Schuss gehört!"

Den Schuß, der es tötet, hört das Opfer nicht mehr...genauso ist`s bei den Goldshorts....Häh, häh!

[Biotechperle]

Wurde schon dementiert oder hat man etwa eingegriffen
Was meint Ihr ?

Bio

[Imoen]

@biotechperle

Barrick hatte vor ein paar Tagen eine ziemlich böse Abstufung bekommen, deswegen läuft die unter anderem nicht so doll.

Die JP Geschichte ist schon Asbach, neu ist nur das jetzt Klage eingereicht worden ist und die muss erstmal zugelassen werden.

Wird sie zugelassen, dann haben wir ein paar Jahre lang eine nette Unterhaltung beim verfolgen des Prozesses.

[Gringo1]

jaja, Imoen, hast schon recht, aber vielleicht wird sogar im Land der UNBEGRENZTEN Möglichkeiten mal ein Äuglein auf diese nette Konstruktion geworfen.
Nicht von Al oder so, die wissen das eh, aber von anderen, die auch mächtig sind.

[Biotechperle]

@Imoen

Das mit dem Gerücht ist mir ja auch schon lange genug
bekannt,nur wundert mich die plötzliche Intraday-erholung.
Aber Du wirst sicherlich recht haben, daß es bis zu
einem eventuellem Prozeß im Amiland dauern kann.
Das wird wohl die Gemüter erst mal beruhigt haben.
Aber wenigstens ist die Schweinebande erst mal wieder im Gespräch!

Bio

[konradi]

.

J P M O R G A N

Silberstreif am Horizont

Das Investmentbankgeschäft zieht an und bringt das Geldhaus wieder in die schwarzen Zahlen.

New York - Die US-Bnk J.P. Morgan Chase hat im ersten Quartal 2003 wieder schwarze Zahlen geschrieben. Wegen gestiegener Erlöse beim Investmentbanking ist der Überschuss im Vergleich zum Vorjahr sogar gestiegen. Beim Ausblick auf das laufende Geschäftsjahr blieb JP-Morgan-Chef William B. Harrison jedoch vorsichtig.

1,4 Milliarden Dollar Überschuss

Im ersten Quartal des Geschäftsjahres habe der Überschuss 1,4 Milliarden Dollar oder 0,69 Dollar je Aktie betragen, teilte das Institut am Mittwoch in New York mit. Dies lag deutlich über den Prognosen der Analysten, die mit einem Ertrag von 0,51 Dollar gerechnet hatten.

Im Vorquartal war wegen zahlreicher Sonderposten wie für den Konzernumbau sowie Prozesskosten ein Verlust von 387 Millionen Dollar oder 0,20 Dollar je Aktie angefallen. Im Vorjahresquartal betrug der Gewinn 982 Millionen oder 0,48 Dollar je Aktie.

Die Summe der Erträge seien gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 12 Prozent auf 7,66 Milliarden Dollar gestiegen. Die Risikovorsorge wurde von 921 Millionen Dollar im Vorquartal auf 743 Millionen Dollar zurückgeschraubt.

manager-magazin.de 16.04.2003