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willkommen zum bubble 2003 bei SOHU (Seite 19)

eröffnet am 05.06.03 21:21:11 von
big_mac

neuester Beitrag 25.06.05 13:19:17 von
big_mac
Beiträge: 188
ID: 740.124
Aufrufe heute: 0
Gesamt: 10.389


Beitrag schreiben Ansicht: Normal
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big_mac
schrieb am 21.05.04 16:52:49
Beitrag Nr. 181 (13.196.107)
nachteule,

es könnte durchaus auch sein, daß araber und die bush-regierung ein gemeinsames interesse an HOHEN ölpreisen haben :rolleyes:

übrigens, nicht nur die russen hatten verträge mit saddam - total fina war auch ganz dick drinnen !
die deutschen gründe für die unterstützung saddams sind hingegen geheim geblieben.
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prof19
schrieb am 21.05.04 17:03:17
Beitrag Nr. 182 (13.196.188)
Zunächst war wenigstens das hier ein SOHU-Thread, nun greift die irgend-was-alles-oder-nichts-Seuche auch hier um sich.

Ich empfehle, Öldiskussionen in den normalen SOHU Teil 6 zu verlagern, und hier wirklich nur zu schreiben, warum SOHU eine schlechte Aktie sein könnte, und ob die Bubble noch platzen wird und wann das passieren wird.

in diesem Sinne mal eine gewagte These: SOHU auf 12$

Grüße, Prof19 :p
Avatar
big_mac
schrieb am 22.05.04 17:55:13
Beitrag Nr. 183 (13.201.763)
also dann, zurück zu SOHU (und den anderen chinesen) :)

mary meeker im interview bei barron`s:

MONDAY, MAY 24, 2004

Extending Her Realm

The Queen of the `Net sees big opportunities in China, but not just yet
By ERIC J. SAVITZ

An Interview With Mary Meeker -- Six years ago, Barron`s crowned the Morgan Stanley stock analyst the "Queen of the `Net" for her influential calls on leading Internet stocks. Since then, of course, much has changed. There`s even a new generation of `Net stocks on the rise -- and this time, some of them are rising in the East. Last month Meeker and a group of fellow Morgan Stanley analysts issued a fat new report on the prospects for the Internet -- in China. Circulation of the new report is already pushing 20,000.
With the proviso that she couldn`t utter a word about the "G company" -- Google`s pending IPO is being led by Morgan Stanley -- we sat down with Meeker in a conference room in the firm`s office on Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park, Calif., to talk about the report, and why she`s almost -- but not quite -- ready to start recommending investors jump into Chinese `Net stocks. Get the lowdown in the Q&A below.


Leaning toward the East: Morgan Stanley`s Mary Meeker thinks that Chinese Internet stocks hold great long-term promise, but she wants to wait to jump in.


Barron`s: Mary, this report is almost 200 pages. What`s up with that?
Meeker: When I went to China in December, I didn`t expect that we would write such a large report. But it struck me this wasn`t going to be just high-level thoughts about the Internet in China. The `Net is driving cultural change in China. To understand the impact, it was important to look at China in a very broad way. The first thing we did was lay out 14 themes we think are the most important in the evolution of the Internet in China -- and then ask how they will impact the market over time.

Q: That`s a lot of turf to cover.
A: It took a lot of time to drill down on each of those. We had to get a lot of data to really feel comfortable that we had a handle on all the things that were really relevant to the market. So the report isn`t just about the Internet. It`s about changes in China.

Q: But why do this now? China has been changing rapidly for years. And they have been online for a while.
A: There was considerable enthusiasm over Chinese Internet companies in 1999 and 2000. I thought it was too early. But this time it struck us that the market had finally gotten to the point where it was mature enough to warrant more focus. With 80 million Internet users in China at the end of 2003 -- it`s the second largest Internet market in the world after the U.S., and likely to be the largest within five years -- we thought it was time.

Q: The first Chinese Internet companies to come public here -- Sina, Sohu, NetEase -- have been focused on two specific markets, Web-based gaming and short messaging over cellphones. But neither of those has become a big business quite yet. Is the market that different over there?
A: The first thing to consider about the Chinese market is the relatively low per capita GDP in China -- about $1,000 a year, versus $37,000 in the U.S. It means consumers there simply have less money to spend -- and advertisers and businesses also have less money to spend. U.S. consumers early on were willing to pay $20 a month for dial-up Internet access, and there was a healthy dose, even in the early days, of advertisers` spending online and of retail spending by consumers. That dynamic simply didn`t exist in the Chinese market, due to the lack of available capital for both consumers and businesses. It was also the case initially that the Chinese government was hesitant to allow the Internet to flourish in too aggressive a way -- it meant anybody could get information about anything.

Q: And China is still a Communist country. They still do occasionally crack down on Websites they don`t like.
A: Yes, although with 80 million Internet users, it has gotten more challenging for the government to clamp down as much as they had in the past. Also, consumers in China realize they are getting so much out of the Internet as it stands today that they perhaps aren`t pushing as hard as they had in the past. I think companies are the same way. That said, there still are crackdowns for political reasons and cultural reasons.

Q: Occasionally, government action has affected public companies. For instance, China has cracked down on pornography transmitted to cellphones in the form of short messages. Hasn`t that kind of thing actually hurt the bottom lines of some of the players?
A: It has. But one thing that`s important to know is that China`s government does take pride in the fact that these companies are living by international accounting rules and listed on a non-Chinese exchange. And so, in all fairness, the companies in my opinion should do and should play to a higher standard.

Q: Well, OK. But isn`t government action still a risk?
A: Concern about government crackdowns is certainly going to be an investment risk for any Chinese technology company. But on a list of issues, it is in the lower half, whereas five years ago it was in the upper half, if not issue No. 1. The government and the Internet companies and the consumers have learned to live with one another, in part because the government has realized the Internet is going to continue to grow, it is going to be more important and they need to embrace it. Stephen Roach, the chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, and Andy Xie, our China economist, are big advocates of the idea that for China to grow its economy the way it aspires to over the next five to 20 years, they need to leverage the Internet to their competitive advantage. One of the things that struck me when I read the current five-year plan from the Chinese government is how often the words technology and informatization are used.

Table: Communications Giants



Q: Informatization? That`s a word?
A: It is in China. They have, in effect, said technology is very important to our country and it is important to our economy and we will focus on it in education. We will focus on it in business. And the Internet is the plumbing for advances in technology. But there`s another government-related issue for all potential Chinese investors. The issue relates to the difficulties in corporate ownership of Chinese companies and content providers. They create significant restrictions and challenges for foreign companies and investors in general.

Q: Ah, right. There are all these interlocking foreign holding companies, designed to get around China`s rules concerning foreign control of domestic companies. It`s a little baffling.
A: A rule of thumb that any investor should follow is that, if something is so complicated that you can`t understand it the first time you read it, the second time you read it or third time you read it, perhaps it is something you want to stay away from. But with China`s entry into the World Trade Organization, and its aspiration to become a bigger player in the global economy, we are in a far more comfortable position related to the concept of disclosure in the Chinese market than 15, 10 or even five years ago.

Q: So who uses the Internet in China?
A: Actually, 70% of all Internet users in China are under age 30. About 53% are under 24. In the U.S., in contrast, just 30% of Internet users are 30 or younger.

Q: You`d think younger users wouldn`t have a lot of disposable income, which presumably helps explain why the Chinese are much more likely to use Internet cafes. They can`t afford PCs.
A: The percentage of users under age 20 is also higher than here, and when it comes to disposable income for that group, the number is even smaller. The market has responded in an interesting way in two areas we have already mentioned, messaging and gaming. It can cost a penny to send a message, or just three to seven cents to play an online game per hour. The cost of usage is low -- the economic proposition is that you have millions of users. As Microsoft has said, just a little, little, little bit of money from a lot, a lot, a lot of users can go a long way.


Q: That suggests the Chinese have mastered something U.S. Internet companies have struggled with -- micropayments.
A: Messages are billed through the major mobile-phone providers, China Mobile and China Unicom. A lot of gaming is paid for by prepaid cards -- you can buy a card at a store or an Internet cafe, not unlike a prepaid phone card in the U.S. One of the biggest challenges for the Chinese Internet companies is that there isn`t a payment system like PayPal, and there isn`t a well-developed credit-card system. China Mobile and China Unicom, which have strong relationships in this market, have been prohibited from trying to create non-message-based online payment systems. But to really advance e-commerce, the country is going to have to figure out this problem.

Q: How are you supposed to develop the Chinese equivalent of Amazon or eBay if people don`t have a good way to pay for merchandise?
A: E-commerce in China is three to five years behind the rest of the world. There are lots of issues. Low levels of disposable income. The lack of a payment system. A third thing is that the logistics of getting a package from point A to point B is not as easy in China as it is in the U.S.

Q: No overnight delivery services?
A: They aren`t broadly used. And they are also expensive. When the auction site EachNet started out -- it since has been acquired and renamed eBay EachNet -- the company was located in Shanghai and the majority of transactions took place between buyers and sellers in Shanghai, who would literally meet on a street corner or in a park. Now the majority of EachNet transactions take place between people in different regions of the country. In part, that reflects the reliance on an eBay-style feedback system. It`s helped increase trust.

Q: What about advertising? So far, it doesn`t seem to be very important to most of the leading Chinese `Net companies.
A: Online advertising accounts for an important portion of Sina and Sohu`s revenue, though both are still small companies from a revenue standpoint. But the totals grew nicely last quarter, and it looks like they will continue to grow. Yahoo! recently bought a company called 3721, which uses a system to allow people to type in a Chinese-language name or term and get to a Website from another part of the world, often an American site. They have software on 90%-plus of all the PCs in China.

Q: Very nice, but we were talking about advertising.
A: Yahoo! plans to marry the 3721 service with sponsored search in the Chinese market. It`s something we are pretty excited about. The participants in the 3721 business are often small to medium-sized enterprises, who want to advertise and buy directory keywords. So advertising is definitely starting to pick up, though it`s a couple of years behind us from a development standpoint. If you go to the Websites from Sina or Sohu, you see a lot of ads, many from well-known brands.

Q: Do you expect American Internet companies to end up dominating the market in China, or will the domestic players continue to take the lead?
A: The reasonable bet is that it will be a combination of both. That may change if the investor restrictions are opened up a bit. One challenge for investors in the marketplace is that it would be hard for a non-Chinese company to acquire a Sina or a Sohu, given regulatory restrictions.

Q: We have had a few happen, though -- you`ve mentioned eBay and EachNet, for instance, and Yahoo! buying 3721.
A: The key is, 3721 and EachNet are not content companies.

Q: So the Chinese government is more concerned about information?
A: Yes. As the rules of the WTO roll out, as the Chinese market becomes more open, I would imagine that will change, and potentially they could be acquired. But we don`t see that in the next two-to-three years.

Q: So far, it looks as if the eBay deal is working out quite nicely.
A: In auctions, eBay EachNet is a clear leader. But there is real competition from a company called Taobao and another called Alibaba. Softbank and/or its founder, Masayoshi Son, is actually an investor in both of them. Sina, in collaboration with 3721 and Yahoo!, is going after the auction market as well. But eBay is in the lead, and China should become a very important market for them. EBay CEO Meg Whitman has said China could be their largest market in 10 to 15 years. But the stakes are high, and the competition is, too. It`s probably eBay`s most competitive market.

Q: Despite the bright outlook, Chinese `Net stocks haven`t performed very well of late, Mary. Why?
A: Certainly, the Chinese stock market has been weak this year, for a variety of reasons. The economy is slowing. There are also concerns about interest-rate increases. There also has been a tremendous amount of capital raised in the Chinese market, with a robust deal pipeline. So people are looking at the capital that has been raised to date, and also what`s coming. People are also focused on the "property-value bubble," as Andy Xie calls it. For the `Net stocks specifically, we also have a transition from the last generation of text messaging to the next generation, which can cause dislocations in an intensely competitive market environment,

Q: So maybe it isn`t quite time to buy the stocks.
A: We`re focused on timing. I add up the market value of all the Chinese Internet companies and get $6 billion to $7 billion. The market value of Yahoo! Japan is about $35 billion. And the market opportunity 10 years from now will be larger in China than Japan.

Q: But you`re not ready to recommend any of them quite yet.
A: We think there could be some very interesting opportunities on the long side in the second half of the year, after we get through some of these issues. Andy Xie characterizes it as a market with a positive secular long-term trend that is still cyclical. And we are in a down cycle for now.

Q: The first generation of Chinese Internet stocks went from IPO, to near collapse, and then had a huge run when they were rediscovered by the broad market, as messaging and online gaming took off. Now we`re getting a new wave of public companies -- Shanda Interactive, a gaming company, the travel site C-Trip and LinkTone, a messaging company, and there are more to come. It`s going to be tempting for people to jump into some of these new stocks. But you think they ought to hold off for a while.
A: We are very enthusiastic about the outlook for the Internet generally. Both Yahoo! and eBay have interesting plays in the Chinese market. So our simplistic point of view is that one way to play the Chinese market is by owning Yahoo! or eBay.

Q: What if I want to buy a pure play? A: The best proxy for the market is probably Sina. They have a leadership position on the advertising side and on the content side, and they seem to have less volatility on the messaging side of their business than some of their rivals. However, the messaging part of the business is in a very competitive environment and coming into a market transition.
Q: Market transition?
A: From SMS messaging, basically text, to multimedia messaging. A lesson I have learned time and again as an investor is that when I say there is a transition coming, that is usually a time where the stocks are challenged. And the question here is, we have seen the stocks trade down. Is it over?

Q: Well, is it?
A: I can make an argument that Sina looks compelling here, based on a long-term outlook. The question is, we may have a lot of wind in our face from a stock-market standpoint over the next six months or so.

Q: So, to be clear, you are not recommending Sina now?
A: We don`t cover the stock. We have a market that has significant growth opportunities over the next one to five years. And if we looked at one stock that most effectively illustrates how the Chinese Internet companies will trade, and look at who the market leader is, I would say that is Sina.

Q: Mary, are we going to see the emergence in China of the kind of iconographic leaders that have emerged in the U.S. technology business? Is there a Michael Dell, or a Steve Jobs, or a Jeff Bezos out there someplace?
A: The management talent in China isn`t as pervasive as it is in some other markets. When I talk to venture capitalists about investing in the Chinese market, the first thing they say is that the regulatory stuff is really hard. And the second thing they say is that it`s a challenge to find top-flight managers and entrepreneurs, and an ecosystem that supports them.

Q: Is the problem that they don`t have experience operating in an entrepreneurial environment?
A: We`re dealing with a country and a society that hasn`t been capitalistic in years. People haven`t had the degree of freedom to do stuff that they wanted to do over time, the kind of things that would help lead to creative thought generation. I think about all the great entrepreneurs I have spent time with, and they all think out of the box as they were encouraged to do so as children. Now, the first and second generation of Internet entrepreneurs in China are very talented folks. But they could certainly benefit from more experience and more management infrastructure. It is going to be an evolutionary thing.

Q: Isn`t it always? Many thanks for the insights.

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big_mac
schrieb am 02.06.04 18:04:31
Beitrag Nr. 184 (13.285.462)
sohu über 24 ! :eek:
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pccwler
schrieb am 02.06.04 18:42:25
Beitrag Nr. 185 (13.286.011)
Sohu bereits kurz über 25:D:D:D:D:D:D
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big_mac
schrieb am 27.09.04 16:36:26
Beitrag Nr. 186 (14.398.878)
der abwärtstrend verflacht langsam, die volatilität scheint auch abzunehmen.
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Skatspieler
schrieb am 09.01.05 00:04:13
Beitrag Nr. 187 (15.485.368)
@bic mac

Herzlichen Glückwunsch und frohes neues Jahr.

Grüsse vom Skatspieler :)
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big_mac
schrieb am 25.06.05 13:19:17
Beitrag Nr. 188 (17.000.411)
[posting]15.485.368 von Skatspieler am 09.01.05 00:04:13[/posting]verspäteten Dank, Skati :)

Langsam gehts hier wieder bergauf:

schaut aber kurzfristig überhitzt aus - also Watchlist und nicht gleich Orderlist !