es könnte durchaus auch sein, daß araber und die bush-regierung ein
gemeinsames interesse an HOHEN ölpreisen haben
übrigens, nicht nur die russen hatten verträge mit saddam - total
fina war auch ganz dick drinnen !
die deutschen gründe für die unterstützung saddams sind hingegen
schrieb am 21.05.04 17:03:17
Zunächst war wenigstens das hier ein SOHU-Thread, nun greift
die irgend-was-alles-oder-nichts-Seuche auch hier um
Ich empfehle, Öldiskussionen in den normalen SOHU Teil 6 zu
verlagern, und hier wirklich nur zu schreiben, warum SOHU eine
schlechte Aktie sein könnte, und ob die Bubble noch platzen wird
und wann das passieren wird.
in diesem Sinne mal eine gewagte These: SOHU auf 12$
schrieb am 22.05.04 17:55:13
also dann, zurück zu SOHU (und den anderen chinesen)
mary meeker im interview bei barron`s:
MONDAY, MAY 24, 2004
Extending Her Realm
The Queen of the `Net sees big opportunities in China, but not just
By ERIC J. SAVITZ
An Interview With Mary Meeker -- Six years ago, Barron`s crowned
the Morgan Stanley stock analyst the "Queen of the `Net" for her
influential calls on leading Internet stocks. Since then, of
course, much has changed. There`s even a new generation of `Net
stocks on the rise -- and this time, some of them are rising in the
East. Last month Meeker and a group of fellow Morgan Stanley
analysts issued a fat new report on the prospects for the Internet
-- in China. Circulation of the new report is already pushing
With the proviso that she couldn`t utter a word about the "G
company" -- Google`s pending IPO is being led by Morgan Stanley --
we sat down with Meeker in a conference room in the firm`s office
on Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park, Calif., to talk about the report,
and why she`s almost -- but not quite -- ready to start
recommending investors jump into Chinese `Net stocks. Get the
lowdown in the Q&A below.
Leaning toward the East: Morgan Stanley`s Mary Meeker thinks that
Chinese Internet stocks hold great long-term promise, but she wants
to wait to jump in.
Barron`s: Mary, this report is almost 200 pages. What`s up with
Meeker: When I went to China in December, I didn`t expect that we
would write such a large report. But it struck me this wasn`t going
to be just high-level thoughts about the Internet in China. The
`Net is driving cultural change in China. To understand the impact,
it was important to look at China in a very broad way. The first
thing we did was lay out 14 themes we think are the most important
in the evolution of the Internet in China -- and then ask how they
will impact the market over time.
Q: That`s a lot of turf to cover.
A: It took a lot of time to drill down on each of those. We had to
get a lot of data to really feel comfortable that we had a handle
on all the things that were really relevant to the market. So the
report isn`t just about the Internet. It`s about changes in
Q: But why do this now? China has been changing rapidly for years.
And they have been online for a while.
A: There was considerable enthusiasm over Chinese Internet
companies in 1999 and 2000. I thought it was too early. But this
time it struck us that the market had finally gotten to the point
where it was mature enough to warrant more focus. With 80 million
Internet users in China at the end of 2003 -- it`s the second
largest Internet market in the world after the U.S., and likely to
be the largest within five years -- we thought it was time.
Q: The first Chinese Internet companies to come public here --
Sina, Sohu, NetEase -- have been focused on two specific markets,
Web-based gaming and short messaging over cellphones. But neither
of those has become a big business quite yet. Is the market that
different over there?
A: The first thing to consider about the Chinese market is the
relatively low per capita GDP in China -- about $1,000 a year,
versus $37,000 in the U.S. It means consumers there simply have
less money to spend -- and advertisers and businesses also have
less money to spend. U.S. consumers early on were willing to pay
$20 a month for dial-up Internet access, and there was a healthy
dose, even in the early days, of advertisers` spending online and
of retail spending by consumers. That dynamic simply didn`t exist
in the Chinese market, due to the lack of available capital for
both consumers and businesses. It was also the case initially that
the Chinese government was hesitant to allow the Internet to
flourish in too aggressive a way -- it meant anybody could get
information about anything.
Q: And China is still a Communist country. They still do
occasionally crack down on Websites they don`t like.
A: Yes, although with 80 million Internet users, it has gotten more
challenging for the government to clamp down as much as they had in
the past. Also, consumers in China realize they are getting so much
out of the Internet as it stands today that they perhaps aren`t
pushing as hard as they had in the past. I think companies are the
same way. That said, there still are crackdowns for political
reasons and cultural reasons.
Q: Occasionally, government action has affected public companies.
For instance, China has cracked down on pornography transmitted to
cellphones in the form of short messages. Hasn`t that kind of thing
actually hurt the bottom lines of some of the players?
A: It has. But one thing that`s important to know is that China`s
government does take pride in the fact that these companies are
living by international accounting rules and listed on a
non-Chinese exchange. And so, in all fairness, the companies in my
opinion should do and should play to a higher standard.
Q: Well, OK. But isn`t government action still a risk?
A: Concern about government crackdowns is certainly going to be an
investment risk for any Chinese technology company. But on a list
of issues, it is in the lower half, whereas five years ago it was
in the upper half, if not issue No. 1. The government and the
Internet companies and the consumers have learned to live with one
another, in part because the government has realized the Internet
is going to continue to grow, it is going to be more important and
they need to embrace it. Stephen Roach, the chief global economist
at Morgan Stanley, and Andy Xie, our China economist, are big
advocates of the idea that for China to grow its economy the way it
aspires to over the next five to 20 years, they need to leverage
the Internet to their competitive advantage. One of the things that
struck me when I read the current five-year plan from the Chinese
government is how often the words technology and informatization
Table: Communications Giants
Q: Informatization? That`s a word?
A: It is in China. They have, in effect, said technology is very
important to our country and it is important to our economy and we
will focus on it in education. We will focus on it in business. And
the Internet is the plumbing for advances in technology. But
there`s another government-related issue for all potential Chinese
investors. The issue relates to the difficulties in corporate
ownership of Chinese companies and content providers. They create
significant restrictions and challenges for foreign companies and
investors in general.
Q: Ah, right. There are all these interlocking foreign holding
companies, designed to get around China`s rules concerning foreign
control of domestic companies. It`s a little baffling.
A: A rule of thumb that any investor should follow is that, if
something is so complicated that you can`t understand it the first
time you read it, the second time you read it or third time you
read it, perhaps it is something you want to stay away from. But
with China`s entry into the World Trade Organization, and its
aspiration to become a bigger player in the global economy, we are
in a far more comfortable position related to the concept of
disclosure in the Chinese market than 15, 10 or even five years
Q: So who uses the Internet in China?
A: Actually, 70% of all Internet users in China are under age 30.
About 53% are under 24. In the U.S., in contrast, just 30% of
Internet users are 30 or younger.
Q: You`d think younger users wouldn`t have a lot of disposable
income, which presumably helps explain why the Chinese are much
more likely to use Internet cafes. They can`t afford PCs.
A: The percentage of users under age 20 is also higher than here,
and when it comes to disposable income for that group, the number
is even smaller. The market has responded in an interesting way in
two areas we have already mentioned, messaging and gaming. It can
cost a penny to send a message, or just three to seven cents to
play an online game per hour. The cost of usage is low -- the
economic proposition is that you have millions of users. As
Microsoft has said, just a little, little, little bit of money from
a lot, a lot, a lot of users can go a long way.
Q: That suggests the Chinese have mastered something U.S. Internet
companies have struggled with -- micropayments.
A: Messages are billed through the major mobile-phone providers,
China Mobile and China Unicom. A lot of gaming is paid for by
prepaid cards -- you can buy a card at a store or an Internet cafe,
not unlike a prepaid phone card in the U.S. One of the biggest
challenges for the Chinese Internet companies is that there isn`t a
payment system like PayPal, and there isn`t a well-developed
credit-card system. China Mobile and China Unicom, which have
strong relationships in this market, have been prohibited from
trying to create non-message-based online payment systems. But to
really advance e-commerce, the country is going to have to figure
out this problem.
Q: How are you supposed to develop the Chinese equivalent of Amazon
or eBay if people don`t have a good way to pay for merchandise?
A: E-commerce in China is three to five years behind the rest of
the world. There are lots of issues. Low levels of disposable
income. The lack of a payment system. A third thing is that the
logistics of getting a package from point A to point B is not as
easy in China as it is in the U.S.
Q: No overnight delivery services?
A: They aren`t broadly used. And they are also expensive. When the
auction site EachNet started out -- it since has been acquired and
renamed eBay EachNet -- the company was located in Shanghai and the
majority of transactions took place between buyers and sellers in
Shanghai, who would literally meet on a street corner or in a park.
Now the majority of EachNet transactions take place between people
in different regions of the country. In part, that reflects the
reliance on an eBay-style feedback system. It`s helped increase
Q: What about advertising? So far, it doesn`t seem to be very
important to most of the leading Chinese `Net companies.
A: Online advertising accounts for an important portion of Sina and
Sohu`s revenue, though both are still small companies from a
revenue standpoint. But the totals grew nicely last quarter, and it
looks like they will continue to grow. Yahoo! recently bought a
company called 3721, which uses a system to allow people to type in
a Chinese-language name or term and get to a Website from another
part of the world, often an American site. They have software on
90%-plus of all the PCs in China.
Q: Very nice, but we were talking about advertising.
A: Yahoo! plans to marry the 3721 service with sponsored search in
the Chinese market. It`s something we are pretty excited about. The
participants in the 3721 business are often small to medium-sized
enterprises, who want to advertise and buy directory keywords. So
advertising is definitely starting to pick up, though it`s a couple
of years behind us from a development standpoint. If you go to the
Websites from Sina or Sohu, you see a lot of ads, many from
Q: Do you expect American Internet companies to end up dominating
the market in China, or will the domestic players continue to take
A: The reasonable bet is that it will be a combination of both.
That may change if the investor restrictions are opened up a bit.
One challenge for investors in the marketplace is that it would be
hard for a non-Chinese company to acquire a Sina or a Sohu, given
Q: We have had a few happen, though -- you`ve mentioned eBay and
EachNet, for instance, and Yahoo! buying 3721.
A: The key is, 3721 and EachNet are not content companies.
Q: So the Chinese government is more concerned about
A: Yes. As the rules of the WTO roll out, as the Chinese market
becomes more open, I would imagine that will change, and
potentially they could be acquired. But we don`t see that in the
next two-to-three years.
Q: So far, it looks as if the eBay deal is working out quite
A: In auctions, eBay EachNet is a clear leader. But there is real
competition from a company called Taobao and another called
Alibaba. Softbank and/or its founder, Masayoshi Son, is actually an
investor in both of them. Sina, in collaboration with 3721 and
Yahoo!, is going after the auction market as well. But eBay is in
the lead, and China should become a very important market for them.
EBay CEO Meg Whitman has said China could be their largest market
in 10 to 15 years. But the stakes are high, and the competition is,
too. It`s probably eBay`s most competitive market.
Q: Despite the bright outlook, Chinese `Net stocks haven`t
performed very well of late, Mary. Why?
A: Certainly, the Chinese stock market has been weak this year, for
a variety of reasons. The economy is slowing. There are also
concerns about interest-rate increases. There also has been a
tremendous amount of capital raised in the Chinese market, with a
robust deal pipeline. So people are looking at the capital that has
been raised to date, and also what`s coming. People are also
focused on the "property-value bubble," as Andy Xie calls it. For
the `Net stocks specifically, we also have a transition from the
last generation of text messaging to the next generation, which can
cause dislocations in an intensely competitive market
Q: So maybe it isn`t quite time to buy the stocks.
A: We`re focused on timing. I add up the market value of all the
Chinese Internet companies and get $6 billion to $7 billion. The
market value of Yahoo! Japan is about $35 billion. And the market
opportunity 10 years from now will be larger in China than
Q: But you`re not ready to recommend any of them quite yet.
A: We think there could be some very interesting opportunities on
the long side in the second half of the year, after we get through
some of these issues. Andy Xie characterizes it as a market with a
positive secular long-term trend that is still cyclical. And we are
in a down cycle for now.
Q: The first generation of Chinese Internet stocks went from IPO,
to near collapse, and then had a huge run when they were
rediscovered by the broad market, as messaging and online gaming
took off. Now we`re getting a new wave of public companies --
Shanda Interactive, a gaming company, the travel site C-Trip and
LinkTone, a messaging company, and there are more to come. It`s
going to be tempting for people to jump into some of these new
stocks. But you think they ought to hold off for a while.
A: We are very enthusiastic about the outlook for the Internet
generally. Both Yahoo! and eBay have interesting plays in the
Chinese market. So our simplistic point of view is that one way to
play the Chinese market is by owning Yahoo! or eBay.
Q: What if I want to buy a pure play? A: The best proxy for the
market is probably Sina. They have a leadership position on the
advertising side and on the content side, and they seem to have
less volatility on the messaging side of their business than some
of their rivals. However, the messaging part of the business is in
a very competitive environment and coming into a market
Q: Market transition?
A: From SMS messaging, basically text, to multimedia messaging. A
lesson I have learned time and again as an investor is that when I
say there is a transition coming, that is usually a time where the
stocks are challenged. And the question here is, we have seen the
stocks trade down. Is it over?
Q: Well, is it?
A: I can make an argument that Sina looks compelling here, based on
a long-term outlook. The question is, we may have a lot of wind in
our face from a stock-market standpoint over the next six months or
Q: So, to be clear, you are not recommending Sina now?
A: We don`t cover the stock. We have a market that has significant
growth opportunities over the next one to five years. And if we
looked at one stock that most effectively illustrates how the
Chinese Internet companies will trade, and look at who the market
leader is, I would say that is Sina.
Q: Mary, are we going to see the emergence in China of the kind of
iconographic leaders that have emerged in the U.S. technology
business? Is there a Michael Dell, or a Steve Jobs, or a Jeff Bezos
out there someplace?
A: The management talent in China isn`t as pervasive as it is in
some other markets. When I talk to venture capitalists about
investing in the Chinese market, the first thing they say is that
the regulatory stuff is really hard. And the second thing they say
is that it`s a challenge to find top-flight managers and
entrepreneurs, and an ecosystem that supports them.
Q: Is the problem that they don`t have experience operating in an
A: We`re dealing with a country and a society that hasn`t been
capitalistic in years. People haven`t had the degree of freedom to
do stuff that they wanted to do over time, the kind of things that
would help lead to creative thought generation. I think about all
the great entrepreneurs I have spent time with, and they all think
out of the box as they were encouraged to do so as children. Now,
the first and second generation of Internet entrepreneurs in China
are very talented folks. But they could certainly benefit from more
experience and more management infrastructure. It is going to be an
Q: Isn`t it always? Many thanks for the insights.
schrieb am 02.06.04 18:04:31
sohu über 24 !
schrieb am 02.06.04 18:42:25
Sohu bereits kurz über 25
schrieb am 27.09.04 16:36:26
der abwärtstrend verflacht langsam, die volatilität scheint auch
schrieb am 09.01.05 00:04:13
Herzlichen Glückwunsch und frohes neues Jahr.
Grüsse vom Skatspieler
schrieb am 25.06.05 13:19:17
[posting]15.485.368 von Skatspieler am 09.01.05
00:04:13[/posting]verspäteten Dank, Skati
Langsam gehts hier wieder bergauf:
schaut aber kurzfristig überhitzt aus - also Watchlist und nicht
gleich Orderlist !