Apple - unaufhaltsamer Aufstieg - wie lange noch? (Seite 4359)

[global123]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.333.538 von KLumpur am 15.10.10 22:03:28

ten Anleihen
Gesamteinschätzung der Aktie
May 10Jul 10Sep 10
200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00450.00

* Kurs
* Ø Kursziel
* BUY

Analysen zu Apple Inc.
Analyst Buy Hold Sell Kursziel Abstand Datum
Citigroup Corp. 350,00 $ +11,11% 15.10.2010
Société Générale Group S.A. (SG) 350,00 $ +11,11% 13.10.2010
Barclays Capital 385,00 $ +22,22% 13.10.2010
Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch 400,00 $ +26,98% 12.10.2010
William Blair - - 11.10.2010
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 345,00 $ +9,52% 08.10.2010
Jefferies & Company Inc. 365,00 $ +15,87% 07.10.2010
Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc. 350,00 $ +11,11% 05.10.2010
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. 360,00 $ +14,29% 30.09.2010
Piper Jaffray & Co. 390,00 $ +23,81% 28.09.2010
Nasd@q Inside - - 27.09.2010
Caris & Company, Inc. 375,00 $ +19,05% 24.09.2010
Kaufman Bros., LP 374,00 $ +18,73% 20.09.2010
Der Aktionär - - 09.09.2010
UBS AG 350,00 $ +11,11% 08.09.2010
Needham & Company, LLC 375,00 $ +19,05% 03.09.2010
JP Morgan Chase & Co. 400,00 $ +26,98% 22.07.2010
Raiffeisen Centrobank AG - - 22.07.2010
Independent Research GmbH 336,00 $ +6,67% 22.07.2010
Sanford C. Bernstein and Co., Inc. 300,00 $ -4,76% 12.07.2010
Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP 335,00 $ +6,35% 21.06.2010
Morgan Stanley 332,00 $ +5,40% 18.06.2010
Frankfurter Tagesdienst - - 10.06.2010
Focus Money - - 04.06.2010
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. - - 22.04.2010
Credit Suisse Group - - 22.04.2010
AC Research - - 22.04.2010
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC - - 22.04.2010
Konkurrenzvergleich zu Apple Inc.
Aktie Buy Hold Sell Ø Kursziel Abst. Kursziel
Amazon.com Inc. 11 8 0 161,50 $ -1,91%
Apple Inc. 25 3 0 359,56 $ +14,15%
Dell Inc. 6 5 1 15,67 $ +8,14%
EMC Corp. 10 1 0 24,60 $ +16,53%
Google Inc. 20 4 0 653,50 $ +8,65%
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HP) 15 5 0 52,44 $ +22,52%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM Corp.) 7 12 0 145,81 $ +3,37%
Microsoft Corp. 21 4 0 33,35 $ +30,58%
Trend-Analysenbewertung
Buy
Hold
Sell
Mai 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Okt 10
Analysten-Bewertung Apple
Analysenspektrum
Sell
Hold
Buy
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
Sanford C. Bernstein and Co., Inc.
300 USD
Morgan Stanley
332 USD
Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP
335 USD
Independent Research GmbH
336 USD
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.
345 USD
UBS AG
350 USD
Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc.
350 USD
Société Générale Group S.A. (SG)
350 USD
Citigroup Corp.
350 USD
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.
360 USD
Jefferies & Company Inc.
365 USD
Kaufman Bros., LP
374 USD
Needham & Company, LLC
375 USD
Caris & Company, Inc.
375 USD
Barclays Capital
385 USD
Piper Jaffray & Co.
390 USD
JP Morgan Chase & Co.
400 USD
Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch
400 USD

Historische Entwicklung

Leute, löst euer Sparbücher,Resterverträge;Festgelder auf !

[KLumpur]

hab mich ja letztens gefreut als sie bei 220 lag ... mich dann aber direkt geärgert, als sie wieder runter ging ... und heute freue ich mich, dass ich apple noch habe ... sieht ja nun doch wieder so aus als wäre der weg noch oben frei ... würde mich freuen ... 250 bis ende des jahres oder so

[Trader20008]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde moderiert. Grund: Spammposting

[ministroba]

lesenswerte analyse, der ich nur zustimmmen kann. interessant die einschätzung der künftigen gemeinsamen marktführerschaft mit google, google hat gestern nach bekanntgabe der zahlen einen fulminaten nachbörslichen anstieg von mehr als 8% in den USA hingelegt.

Is Apple a Bubble?

By Anand Chokkavelu, CFA



Before I begin with my analysis, let me discredit myself somewhat.

In September 2008, I bought Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) shares at around $110 per share. After shares ran up, I was proud of myself for playing contrarian during a financial crisis after shares fell from $200 highs.

A year later, happy with my nifty 60% gain, I sold at $180 per share, fearing overvaluation.

As you know, Apple's rise didn't end at $180. Today, shares trade at $300, leaving my 60% gain dwarfed by the 170% gain that could have been.

That's nice, but is Apple a bubble today?
So I'm biased. I'd love to say my analysis was correct -- that Apple was overvalued at $180 a share, and that Apple at $300 a share is a bubble. It certainly feels like a bubble.

Like Treasuries and gold, Apple has had a tremendous run-up. As recently as 2003, shares traded for less than $10 apiece. In other words, those shares have risen more than 30 times in value.

As you may have read, Apple's market capitalization is now second only to ExxonMobil ... and catching up fast. Think about that. Its market cap is 35% higher than Wal-Mart's.

Add those facts up with the zealousness of the Apple enthusiasts and it's certainly easy to call it a bubble.

But wait...
However, there's just as much evidence saying that Apple is either fairly valued or -- gasp! -- undervalued.

On a trailing basis, Apple's selling for 22 times earnings. Not super cheap, but this multiple drops to 17 on a forward basis. Normally, I'd fear that analysts are being too optimistic, but consider these two points:

1. Apple has averaged 50% growth a year for the last five years.
2. Each quarter, Apple sandbags analysts, and then destroys their estimates. Over the last four quarters, Apple beat estimates by 13%, 36%, 77% (helped by an accounting change), and 28%.

And remember that the company's forward P/E ratio of 17 is inflated by Apple's cash hoard. The Mac maker has $45 billion sitting on its balance sheet -- or $50 per share in cash alone. Put a third way, that pile of cash is enough money to buy every share of Nike outright.

When you strip out the cash, Apple is trading for a seemingly too-good-to-be-true 14 times forward earnings.

Is it too good to be true?
That question hinges upon the sustainability and growth of Apple's earnings.

Let's hit sustainability first. At 14 times earnings, Apple needs little further growth to justify its price. That may seem pretty shocking, given Apple's growth-stock reputation.

But in technology, the possibility that a company may come in and make your products obsolete is always lurking. Take a look at Research In Motion. A tech darling only a couple of years ago, its smartphones are now under serious attack from Apple's iPhone and Google's legion of Android phones. It's trading at less than eight times forward earnings, because its base of earnings is suddenly tenuous.

In Apple's case, its computers are probably safe, given its position in a fragmented market; its iPods are being cannibalized by its iPhones; and its iPhones and iPads are still in their big growth phases. A Facebook-replacing-MySpace event could happen to Apple, but in the near term, the earnings upon which Apple's multiples are based are sustainably real.

Now on to growth opportunities
I see three major growth drivers for Apple, split up by product.

iPhone
Who's going to win the smartphone war, Apple or Google? The closed system or the open system? I predict they'll both win -- at the expense of everyone else.

At the end of Q1, Nielsen reported that Blackberry had a 35% market share in the U.S., while Microsoft Windows Mobile had a 19% market share. Apple was at 28% and Google's Android was at 9%. By August, Android was up to 19%, while Apple has held steady. (Wait till it gets on the Verizon network!) I believe Apple and Google will establish a Visa-and-MasterCard type of virtual duopoly in the future.

This is important, since smartphone penetration in the U.S. has only reached 23%. Earlier in the year, Nielsen pegged penetration to exceed 50% in 2011. And as a recent convert to an iPhone myself, I can't see many converts ever subsequently going backward to a feature phone.

And these opportunities just cover the United States; the rest of the world remains wide open.

iPad
When the iPad was just coming out, I didn't hear many (any?) people predicting its runaway success. Apple has once again made an incredible product that we didn't know we wanted. And its sales are just heating up.

The unexpected
Speaking of folks underestimating Apple, the third growth driver I'm excited about is the unexpected. Perhaps Apple will finally figure out how to make Apple TV a success -- its integration opportunities with the rest of the i-Universe are tantalizing. Or it could reveal another product we didn't know we wanted.

Who knows? I'm not too concerned, because as I said before, Apple's current valuation doesn't depend on a crazy amount of growth. I'm happy to keep this growth driver in the speculative upside category.

The final call
After all this, do I consider Apple a bubble?

There are compelling arguments that gold is a bubble. There are compelling arguments that the bond market is a bubble. But -- and I'm as surprised as you as I write this -- I don't think Apple is a bubble.

In fact, I'll go further. It's hard to say this after such a run-up, and considering Apple's huge market cap, but if I had to make a buy or sell call, I'd say buy.

I'm going to keep thinking about it for my own portfolio, but if you plan to become an Apple buyer, know that the company reports its earnings on Monday, Oct. 18. Don't be surprised if the iEmpire beats earnings estimates. Again.

[global123]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.326.350 von Willyb_de am 15.10.10 07:35:54

15.10.10 / 07:58
Apple "buy"
Rating-Update: New York (aktiencheck.de AG) - Brian J. White, Analyst von Ticonderoga Securities, stuft die Aktie von Apple (ISIN -/ WKN 865985) unverändert mit "buy" ein. Das Kursziel werde bei 430,00 USD gesehen. (Analyse vom 14.10.10) (15.10.2010/ac/a/u

[Willyb_de]

Quartalsbericht am Montag, sehe ich das richtig?

Wird ja wohl wieder über den Erwartungen liegen, denke ich.

Was denkt Ihr welche Richtung der Kurs danach kurzfristig einschlägt, bräuchte das Geld dann zeitnah woanders und bin noch unentschlossen.

[global123]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.303.081 von groeßenwahn am 12.10.10 09:40:33

Heureka, in NY 301,40 - es gibt soweit ich sehe nicht einen Analysten ,der als Kursziel
weniger als 350 $ angibt. Bin auf den nächsten Quartalsbericht gespannt. Steve J- great
job - nomen es omen.

[groeßenwahn]

Ich warte noch die Zahlen ab, möcht die 300$ sehen

[jones2006]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.285.283 von grueblerinvest am 07.10.10 21:50:18

ein zweiter Wermutstropfen ist der momentane Euro/Dollarkurs

[Cash-Flow-Analyst]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.228.400 von Cash-Flow-Analyst am 28.09.10 23:27:34

Herrlich - Microsoft will ADOBE schlucken - da lacht doch mein Herz denn der OS ist mal eben über 100% hoch :-)) Schaut Euch die Bewertung an und die Margen, da war der Schwenk von Apple auf Adobe richtig und wird den OS noch weiter boomen lassen - ein schönes Wochenende allen ADOBE OS Besitzern