First Majestic, ein Silberjunior auf dem Weg in die Mittelklasse? (Seite 2888)

[German2]

..ich bin sehr optimistisch für Silber.. die Juniors werden bald anfangen zu rennen..





Got Gold Report - Back Up Truck on Small Gold, Silver and Uranium Miners

By Gene Arensberg
04 May 2008 at 08:52 PM GMT-04:00

ATLANTA (ResourceInvestor.com) -- It’s probably time to load up the truck in the junior resource sector. Why? Well, call it a hunch. A hunch based on the hard-core contrarian notion that when the many are convinced it is the few who will prosper. That and the fact that small miners and explorers, represented in this chart by the CDNX in Canada, are beginning to outperform their larger cousins, represented by the HUI, even if it is in a falling market.

Especially hard hit have been the small uranium miners and explorers, even the ones that actually do have real, demonstrable resources and promising prospects. Odd, isn’t it, with oil over $100 per bbl, coal and natural gas both historically high, and at least one marquee high-grade uranium discovery having just been announced in Canada?

This report firmly believes the carnage in the small resource sector is directly related to the credit crunch fallout (no pun intended) from last year and early this year. The great uncertainty that arose during it created a vacuum of liquidity from the more risky stocks in our investing universe, no matter what they did or mined.

This report also firmly believes that liquidity will return to these former high flyers in a very big way in the not-too-distant future. There are already indications that liquidity is returning. A good thing, because some of the more speculative, but promising issues this report tracks have already been so beaten up in the downdraft that they are actually trading under their 2003 lows.

Signs of Life?

Here are just a few signs that, while some are difficult to measure, are nevertheless quite evident for those of us who follow the resource sector just about every waking moment.

Gold and silver have sold off strongly and are once again approaching their respective popular technical moving averages from above. The closer they get to those moving averages the higher the probability they are about to reverse course. See more about that in graphs linked in the Gold Charts section below.

The current correction in gold is already the second largest in percentage terms since the Great Gold Bull began in 2001-2002 as shown in this chart.

As profiled in a supplemental report last weekend, massive outflow of wealth from the world’s gold ETFs (primarily GLD) surfaced last week. It has since slowed and instead of outflow we see the opposite, we see positive money flow or dip buying into the U.S. silver ETF. More about that in the Gold ETF and Silver ETF sections below.

Although the U.S. dollar has gotten a bit of a bid relative to the other members of the global fiat currency leper colony, curiously commercial traders on the NYBOT don’t seem to think it has all that much upside if their net long positioning in U.S. dollar index futures is any indication. See comments about that in graphs linked in the U.S. Dollar Index section.

Sentiment among the popular resource newsletter writers has taken a decidedly bearish tone over the past six months and especially over the last two. Generally, and there are notable exceptions, they have gone from quite bullish (legendary gains ahead), to cautiously bullish (buy on weakness), to defensively bullish (stink bids only), to, and this one hurts, “retreat and regroup” or “focus only on winners,” which is about the about the same thing as fully bearish in that matrix.

It is as if Col. William Barret Travis just drew a line in the sand with his sword at the Alamo in 1836 and, metaphorically speaking, along with James Bowie and David Crockett we 160 or so resource investors still hanging around the resource stock Alamo sanctuary have stepped across to take on 3,500 Mexican regulars “for the cause.”

Supposed financial genius stock picking gurus are abandoning their former resource exploration darlings in wads just when they are hitting 4 and 5-year lows. That just might be the opportunity of the year as it comes at a time when there is still extremely sparse liquidity in the small resources sector.

If any of the financial genius guru’s sizable flock takes the plunge off the cliff with the other lemmings on the already badly beaten up issues they once so lovingly recommended … when they have already been run over by credit market tightness and unusually tight liquidity on the resource sector highway … we bargain loving stock vultures ought to be sitting on the power line just above that scene.

Pass the salt and pepper please. Financial genius guru road kill for breakfast!

So the stocks they loved and enthusiastically recommended at $2.00 are now chopped liver at $0.30 and should now be dumped? Really?

Of course these guru’s have already given the early word to their very close “friends,” the people who pay the higher “preferred member” premiums for their guru advice, and they have already sold. That’s one reason that some of these stocks are so beaten up already before the “regulars,” the lowly subscribers that only fork over a tenth of what the “friends” do, get the word from on high to sell and move on.

As the gurus abandon their former “best buys” at the bottom, with so few buyers around to take on an avalanche of disgusted regular follower sellers, some issues will get hit very, very hard just on that extraordinarily bad timing selling pressure alone. Even though, except for the unlucky firms hit with devastating political insanity like just occurred in Venezuela, Ghana and Ecuador, nothing has really changed for the company, its management (which the gurus loved when they recommended it), or its prospects.

Watch for just that kind of opportunity if you have the strong-stomached, long-term-minded, thick-skinned resolve to go bargain hunting for guru-dumped resource sector road kill.

It probably won’t be all that long before they are picked up, dusted off, and repackaged by the next financial genius guru, once they have alerted their higher paying customers, of course.

The irony was, for Col. Travis, he was on the right side of the argument. Gen. Houston and 680 “Texians” changed the course of history a month later at San Jacinto and the Republic of Texas was born.

Travis was right; he was a bona fide hero, but unfortunately for him, just a little early. The help he expected to arrive never did, but he and those who stood with him managed to hang on for 12 bloody days against a foe with superior strength, giving Houston more time to develop and implement his strategy for victory.

We resource stock vultures don’t have to die for the cause if we are early, but our portfolios might sting a bit more before our San Jacinto Day. We’ll see. Got spec mining shares?

Why Pay More Premium for Silver?

Some physical silver products such as small rounds, U.S. silver eagles, and all bar silver smaller than the very large 1,000 ounce heavies remain difficult to locate in quantity at anything close to a reasonable premium with silver trading in the $16.40s. That is probably one reason that we are seeing significant positive money flow into the U.S. silver ETF. More buying than selling pressure required iShares Silver Trust to increase its trading float and add over 150 tonnes of new silver for the week. That’s obvious dip buying in a pretty convincing measure. Read more about that, including suggestions for lower premium alternatives in the Silver ETF and Silver COT sections below.

Bottom Line

The bottom line for this report is that as both gold and silver are approaching their popular moving averages from above, with this gold correction already the second largest of the Great Gold Bull in percentage terms (although only 7 weeks old), with the most popular physical silver still in short supply in the U.S., positive money flow into the silver ETF, negative money flow from the gold ETFs slowing, mining stocks acting more firmly than they have been and small resource companies now outperforming their larger cousins, there is reason for optimism for those who are still holding positions or are now scaling in. If the indications this report follows closely are correct, both gold and silver are within 6% to 10% of their potential 2008 lows and it would not be at all surprising to see both find overwhelming support near their Friday lows.

Of course that could be wrong. We’ll see. Got gold? Got silver?

On to some of the indicators.

COT Changes. In the Tuesday 4/29 commitments of traders report (COT) for gold metal the COMEX large commercials (LCs) collective combined net short positions (LCNS) fell 14,117 contracts or 7.07% from 199,599 to 185,482 contracts net short Tuesday to Tuesday as gold dove $44.16 or 4.83% from $914.16 to $870.00.

Since Tuesday gold only managed to retest the low $880s to the upside and found support in the $850s. Cash gold even took a very brief shot at a break of the former-resistance-turned-possible-support $850 level Friday following the release of better than expected non-farm payroll numbers in the U.S.

The reaction-spike lower (to as low as $846.27 on the cash market) found no downside momentum, with determined large-scale buying from multiple sources below $850, then the action reversed course upward on probable pre-weekend short covering to a Friday last trade of $856.48.

For the calendar week gold turned in a net $29.78 decline or about 3.4% on the cash market.

As of Tuesday’s COT reporting cutoff, COMEX gold open interest rose a modest 5,452 to 429,670 contracts open, each covering the future delivery of 100 ounces of gold metal.

Long-term June 2009 and beyond COMEX forwards unsurprisingly added 2,942 contracts to show 51,790 lots open, or a low 12.05% of total open contracts. More than half of the total open interest increase were contracts the longer-term variety in other words, but the nominal amount of the increase is not at all unusual and the long-term contract to total open interest percentage is historically still quite low.

As gold has sold down the nominal amount of commercial net short positioning has also declined, but it is the pace of the LCNS decline that is disappointing so far for those long the metal. From its March 17 speculator-assisted intraday high of $1,032.80 to Friday’s fund-exodus influenced intraday low of $846.27, gold has seen a peak to trough correction so far of $186.53 the ounce, or about 18%.

The commercial net short position actually peaked a little earlier on February 19 at a record 252,740 contracts net short. If we use that figure as the peak, as of Tuesday, 4/29, the LCNS had been reduced by 67,258 contracts or about 26.6%.

The LCNS has not been this low nominally since the September 18, 2007 COT report when the LCs were net short 175,264 COMEX contracts against a total open interest of 392,748 with gold in the $720s, but it still has to be regarded as a high net short position historically speaking, especially when compared to the August 21, 2007 COT report, the last major bottom for this indicator which showed an LCNS of just 91,994 contracts against a total open interest then of 330,204 with gold in the $650s.

Clearly as of Tuesday, although the LCNS is considerably less than it was in February nominally, the large, well funded and presumably well informed traders classed by the CFTC as commercial were still well positioned for further gold weakness even after gold had blown off its speculative top to the tune of 18%.

The other side of that statement is that since February 19, COMEX commercial traders are less net short contracts covering about 209 tonnes of gold metal. Now they are “only” net sort about 577 tonnes with gold at $870 instead of 786 tonnes when gold was in the $920s.

It would not be very surprising to learn that they are considerably less net short in the next COT report provided gold stays fairly close to current prices through the Tuesday COT reporting cutoff.

Silver ETF: In stark contrast to gold ETFs, metal holdings for Barclay’s iShares Silver Trust [AMEX:SLV], the U.S. silver ETF, showed a substantial increase of 151.48 to 5,927.99 tonnes of silver metal held for its investors over the past week.

Silver turned in a net $0.44 or 2.6% dip on the cash market for the calendar week with a Friday last trade of $16.417.

Not only are we NOT seeing negative money flow from the silver ETF as the cash market price has fallen, we are seeing quite the opposite. That’s probably a sign of aggressive dip buying for the silver ETF and it reflects the growing understanding of the market that physical silver, the real, precious shiny stuff, (as opposed to paper futures contracts which promise to deliver some of it in the future) … real physical silver in many forms is getting even more scarce as the price declines and demand for it increases.

Because of the injuriously high premiums dealers are forced to charge in order to deliver physical silver in either coin, round or bar form, some traders and investors are apparently supplementing or replacing their demand for real silver by buying SLV. A pretty good idea too, discussed in more detail elsewhere in this report.

[German2]

Opportunity on a Silver Platter

Jim Willie CB
7 May 2008

Once every several months, an opportunity is presented on a silver platter to purchase a spectacular investment in a strong uptrend, with loud indications of continued upward trend in price. Gold is heading well past $1200 and silver is heading well past $25 in the next several months, despite the orchestrated annihilation of honest valid reporting. How many times have the clowns on Wall Street and the financial subservient media networks claimed that the worst was over for the USDollar, gold, the USEconomy, the housing market, and bank bond losses? My guess is about once per year for the last five years, all wrong, and still wrong, just louder wrong now in tone. Has anything been fixed on the economy, housing, mortgages, or banks? No! The flow of USFed repo money to banks has improved, that is all. That is not a remedy, but a bandage tourniquet, grossly misinterpreted...

..What has happened in recent weeks seems clear. The USGovt and USFed and USTreasury have made a deal with the devil. Primarily Arabs (much less so Asians) have been encouraged to add cash in order to keep US big banks solvent. In return, the agents from the not-so-hidden Plunge Protection Team led by the USFed & Treasury have engineered a counter-trend rally in bank stocks and mainstream stocks. They have also solicited the cooperation of the Euro Central Bank and Band of Japan in order to engineer a counter-trend USDollar rally, as feeble as it has been. The smaller Bank of Canada has been very cooperative also. This all has occurred even though at the expense of USTBonds, since something must give ground. They can corrupt most markets, but not all markets simultaneously. Lies offer cover to the portions they cannot control in concert. The BKX bank stock index has indeed risen in recent weeks. It faces some stern resistance here. It might make minor added gains. The reality of a profound wave of new bond losses will likely keep the bank stocks well chained to the mill posts...

GOLD OPPORTUNITY & SILVER PLATTER

The opportunities given today in gold & silver will be written about for another few years. The prices offered in early 2008 will be seen as tremendous bargains. Price bargains were last seen in August 2007, in September 2006, and in mid-2005. The breakout of gold past the elusive 700 mark foretold the rally not just to 1000 but to 2000 and higher. It unleashed a new era. Ditto for silver, which rose past the elusive 15.50 level. Doing so foretold a rally not just to 20 but to 50. Give it time. Things are unraveling. Systems are broken. Solutions are nowhere. All efforts have an inflation stench to them. Desperation has entered central banker offices.




The gold price has found support off the 200-day moving average in classic form. The triple leg correction off the 1020 high is also a classic long-term pattern. It guarantees a firm foundation for the assault on 1000 with stable success. Note how the 1000 mark was eclipsed, but from a base around 650 to 670. The next base will be 850 or so. The silver price movement and patterns are similar. However, silver is heading to the heavens in price, joining its platinum brother and palladium cousin. Gold will be stuck fighting political wars, but making strong gains. The gold/silver ratio will show pronounced improvement in favor of silver in the next two to three years. Silver is in default on a nearly global basis. COMEX delivery of silver is interfered with. Silver coin dealers have almost nothing to sell. Even the USMint has halted production of silver eagles! So silver price has declined amidst profound shortages? The stage is set for huge uplegs in the silver price. Gold will rise in concert.





The triggers for the USDollar on the downside, and for gold & silver on the upside are more big bank bond losses. Nevermind the cause being the housing price declines. That has been ignored. When banks announce further big bond losses, the winds will change very rapidly, and with anger by the people. Rating agencies are cooperating in ways, but not offering ratings on debt securities in certain bond types. Yet they also are issuing huge downgrades of typically safe asset backed bonds. This summer will involve a very very rude awakening. The reality of recession, housing decline, and bank losses will undo the positive attitudes that are lifting the subprime USDollar and stock prices broadly...

GOLDMAN SEEKS BUYERS OF ITS CRUDE OIL CONTRACTS

True to form, in yet another chapter in their corruption, Goldman Sachs has announced the likelihood of a future $200 crude oil price. Conclude quickly that they are eager to find buyers of their long crude oil positions, as its price heads down. GSax has standing profits in need of liquidation, but they need more dumb demand. In 2005 they shorted the mortgage bonds profitably, even as they sold mortgage securities laced with fraud. In November 2007, they heralded a flat year for gold, just before its price vaulted from 800 to over 1000. Now these criminal geniuses are touting a strong year for crude oil. Doesn’t anyone ever question the clear biased motives of these guys? Simple conclusion is that crude oil is soon coming down. Watch gold rise as the pendulum swings from energy to precious metals ...read on

[sumoey]

man ist das langweilig

[German2]

schon lustig wie man Silber den ganzen Tag lang schön runtertaxen kann.. mit normalen Handel hat das nix mehr zu tun ... US-Daten hin oder her... wenigstens spielt sich das alles 5$ weiter oben ab als letztes jahr

[lacoste70]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.043.913 von German2 am 07.05.08 09:50:08

...alles unter 10$ pro Aktie sind indiskutabel




das wissen wir schon lange, kaufen können wir uns aber nichts....


Ich habe langsan das gefühl, das wieder Risiko gekauft wird. An die Kredit und Bankenkrise will im Moment niemand denken.

Der Dax und der Dow werden durch die Inflation angetrieben. Das wird imho bis 2010 gut gehen und dann werden alle aufwachen.

Ich halte meine FR und schlafe ruhig...........


gruss,lacoste

[Miner2007]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.043.913 von German2 am 07.05.08 09:50:08

Leider fließt bis 2010 noch viel Wasser die Isar runter.

30 USD / Unze für Silber ist schon etwas sehr mutig.

Und die 10 $ pro für FR sind für mich auch etwas sehr ambizioniert.

Mein KZ für FR sind 7,50 $ !!!

Nur meine Meinung.

[German2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.036.369 von Chivalric am 06.05.08 13:01:40

völlig unwichtig.. der Chef von Marktführer Silver Wheaton sieht den Silberpreis bei 30$ /Unze ...

mit 9-10 Millionen Unzen Produktion in 2010 kann man sich ausrechnen was FR wert sein sollte...

...alles unter 10$ pro Aktie sind indiskutabel

[grosserwagen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.036.369 von Chivalric am 06.05.08 13:01:40

Wann kommen die Zahlen?

Gruss
GW

[Chivalric]

FMV sieht auch heute wieder ganz ordentlich aus. Ich denke, aus dem Gröbsten sind wir heraus. Jetzt noch positive Q1-Zahlen und wir sollten die 3-Euro-Marke spielend nehmen.

[power_48]

Welche Renditen sind und waren mit Silber zu erzielen?

Gerhard Nadolny
Email: [e-mail]
Blog: www.silberconnection.blogspot.com

Hätten Sie vor 5Jahren in den DAX ( als er im Mai 2003 bei 3000 Punkten stand)
EUR 25000 investiert dann hätten Sie heute beim Stand von 7000 einen Wert von EUR 58.325 , Rendite 133 %

Angenommen Sie hätten am 30.4.2003 diese 25000 EUR in Gold investiert, dann wäre Ihr Gold heute nach fünf Jahren EUR 63.560 wert, Gewinn EUR 38.560 Rendite 154 %.

Wie sieht diese Rechnung beim Silber aus ?

Hätten Sie vor fünf Jahren, am 30.4.2003, 25000 EUR in Silber investiert, dann wäre Ihr Silber heute 87.989 EUR Wert, Gewinn EUR 62.989; Rendite in 5 Jahren 252 % .bzw. 50 % p. a.
Silber hat Gold also um 98 % „ outperformt „ und den DAX um 119% (MwSt unberücksichtigt).

Wenn Sie heute nun nochmals 25000 EUR investieren und das Silber aus 2003 liegen lassen dann ergeben sich folgende Prognosen:

Parameter: Silber am 2.5.2008 = 16,19 $ / Kurs EUR / Dollar = 1,55

1.Investment April 2003 EUR 25.000 / Wert am 2.5.2008 : EUR 87.989 ; 50 % Rendite p. a.
2.Investment Mai 2008 EUR 25.000 / Gesamtinvestment per 2.5.2008 = EUR 50.000,-

Da wir uns im achten Jahr einer ca. zehnjährigen Inflationsphase befinden und die Vergangenheit zeigt , dass Silber erst zum Schluss seine steilsten Anstiege hat, sind folgende Zahlen für den Zeitraum von 2009 bis 2010 zum heutigen Dollarkurs im Bereich des Möglichen:

Silberpreis in $ am Jahresende Silberwert in € Gewinn in € Rendite in % bzw. p. a.
24,3 _____________2009 ______169.484 _______119.284 ___239 ______140
40,5 _____________2010 ______282.473 _______232.473 ___465 ______170

Anmerkung:
bei 40 $ liegt Silber in realen Preisen von 2008 unter. 50% seines Höchsttandes von 1980 und unter 5 % seines Allzeithochs von 1477 ( realer Preis in 2008 ca.1200 $)

Angenommen, Sie sind noch nicht in Silber und investieren die 50000 EUR (exkl. MwSt.) erst heute und der Finanzanalyst und Charttechniker David Bensimon hat mit seiner Prognose Recht, dass Silber bis 2012 auf ca.120 $ und bis 2014 auf ca. 160 $ steigt, dann steigt Ihr Silber zum heutigen Dollarkurs

bis 2012 auf ca. 325.000 EUR Rendite = 650 %

bis 2014 auf ca. 500.000 EUR Rendite = 900 %

Legen Sie jedoch die 50000 EUR heute in Gold an und Davis Bensimon hat Recht , dass dieses bis 2014 auf ca. 3000 $ steigt, dann steigt Ihr Goldwert „ nur „

bis 2014 auf ca. 175.000 EUR Rendite = 250 %

Im Jahr 1873 hat Deutschland das Silber entmonetarisiert. Damals stand Silber in realen Preisen von 2008 bei 120 $ / Unze. Der Gründer von Gold Money, James Turk sagt bis 2012 eine Währungsreform voraus .Sollte Silber in diesem Zusammenhang wieder eine monetäre Bedeutung erlangen, dann liegt auch unter diesem Gesichtspunkt im Zeitraum um 2012 ein Preis von 120 $ im Bereich des Möglichen.

Lesen Sie noch oder kaufen Sie schon ?

Stand: Mai 2008
Quelle: www.hartgeld.com