LYNAS - Faktenthread, Analysen, Querverweise u. Meldungen zum Unternehmen (Seite 311)

[JoJo49]

http://www.deraktionaer.de/xist4c/web/Lynas--Selten-gute-Akt…

21.01.2010

Lynas: Selten gute Aktie
Andreas Deutsch

Gute Nachricht aus Australien: Das Spezialchemie-Unternehmen Rhodia hat den Vertrag mit Lynas verlängert. Seit Empfehlung des AKTIONÄRs notiert die Lynas-Aktie bereits 27 Prozent im Plus. Die Aussichten sind positiv.

Bislang lief der Vertrag zwischen Lynas und Rhodia über fünf Jahre. Nun einigten sich die beiden Konzerne auf eine Verlängerung auf zehn Jahre. Lynas wird Rhodia also im gesamten laufenden Jahrzehnt mit wertvollen Seltenen Erden beliefern. Die Herstellung der Seltenen Erden übernimmt die Lynas-Tochter Lynas Malaysia.

Aufgestuft

Für Andrew Sullivan war die Meldung Grund genug, die Aktie aufzustufen. Er empfiehlt Lynas jetzt zum Kauf, nachdem sein Urteil vorher "Halten" lautete. Sein Kursziel lautet 0,72 Australische Dollar.

Hinter Lynas liegt ein bewegtes Jahr. Nachdem die Übernahme durch China Nonferrous Metal Mining im Spätsommer geplatzt war, sah es nicht gut aus für die Australier. Dann gelang eine Kapitalerhöhung, bei der Lynas 450 Millionen Australische Dollar einnahm.

Lynas ist im Besitz einer Mine in Westaustralien mit den weltweit wohl größten Vorkommen an Seltenen Erden. Die dortigen Vorkommen werden auf insgesamt 917.000 Tonnen geschätzt.



Mutige Anleger kaufen

Lynas ist im Begriff, einer der ganz großen Produzenten von Seltenen Erden zu werden. Allerdings wird Lynas wohl erst 2012 die Gewinnschwelle erreichen, so dass sich der Titel ausschließlich für risikobereite Anleger eignet. Zumal die Volatilität der Aktie extrem hoch ist. Wer der AKTIONÄRs-Empfehlung im November gefolgt ist, kann sich über einen Kursgewinn von 27 Prozent freuen. Das Kursziel lautet unverändert 0,60 Euro, der Stoppkurs sollte bei 0,28 Euro gesetzt werden.

Mehr über Lynas und über weitere hochinteressante Aktien aus dem Bereich "Seltene Erden" lesen Sie im Spezial-Report "Die neue Boombranche 2010", den Sie hier abrufen können.
http://www.aktienreports.de/detail/1108/die-neue-boombranche…


Grüsse JoJo

[JoJo49]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-history?S=LYC&E=ASX

LYC Lynas Corporation Limited
January 2010
21st Investor Presentation - January 2010


http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LYC&E=ASX&N=477436
...
...
Auszug:

Lynas has a clear vision to become a global company in the Rare Earths industry
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Excellence in safety, health and the environment
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Learn from our differences and be open to change
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Operate in an honest, candid and transparent manner
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Inquire and innovate
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Deliver high quality products through excellence in processes
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Always respect and contribute to the communities in which we live
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Respect, support and empower our employees



Rare Earths improve fuel consumption and emission control in the automotive industry
Weight reduction through new magnets
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Electric motor with Neo magnets is half the weight of traditional ferrite motor
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Electric seats, windows and mirrors
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Sunroof and tail gate
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Windscreen wipers and washer jets
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Starter motor and alternator
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ABS braking
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plus many more
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Replacing hydraulic systems for steering reduces significant weight and reduces power consumption
Reducing weight reduces energy consumption and lowers emissions

Global sources of Rare Earths supply
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China supplies 95% of world market
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Operates at its capacity limit
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No significant non-Chinese supply sources available today
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Small and limited production in Russia (3-4,000tpa)
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Beach sand processed by Indian Rare Earths, subsidiary of Atomic Energy Agency, (7% thorium banned elsewhere)
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Development projects currently under study
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Mainly at an early stage with long lead times to realisation
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New projects face economic and environmental hurdles
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Mountain Pass in California has announced plans to restart in approximately 2012, subject to economic and environmental hurdles (approximately 11,000 tpa)
...
...


Grüsse JoJo

[JoJo49]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-history?S=LYC&E=ASX
LYC Lynas Corporation Limited
January 2010
20th Extended Supply Contract and Technical Co-operation Agmt

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LYC&E=ASX&N=477193

AUSTRALIA
20 January 2010

Lynas Extends Rare Earths Supply Contract and Signs a Technical Co-operation Agreement with Rhodia

Key Points:
•
Rhodia supply contract for Mount Weld Rare Earths extended to 10 years
•
RED brand setting a benchmark for security of supply and environmental protection
•
Through these contracts Rhodia further strengthens its global leadership position and its security of raw material sourcing
•
A Technical Cooperation Agreement with Rhodia signed to support operational planning, commissioning and ramp-up of the Advanced Material Plant

Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) is pleased to announce the Supply Contract signed with Rhodia (formerly Rhodia Electronics & Catalysis) for the supply of Mount Weld Rare Earths to be produced by the company’s subsidiary Lynas Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. in its Advanced Material Plant has been extended from a five year contract to a ten year contract.
This contract extension by a globally significant consumer of Rare Earths reinforces the RED brand of Lynas is establishing itself as the benchmark for the security of supply in the Rare Earths market and is welcomed by customers at a time when demand is increasing strongly but current supply is restricted and ever more uncertain. The core company values of excellence in health, safety and environment also enhance the RED brand value proposition to companies such as Rhodia whose brand states “Chemistry is our world, responsibility is our way”. This ten year contract assists strategic planning for customer relationships and product development for both companies.
The contracted quantities account for a significant portion of the cerium and heavier Rare Earths, including europium and terbium, as well as other products such as lanthanum from the Lynas processing plant’s initial 11,000 tonnes REO capacity, due to commence production in the first half of 2011.
In addition Rhodia and Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd have signed a Technical Co-operation Agreement (TCA). The TCA outlines technical support to be provided by Rhodia for the separation and product finishing sections of the Advanced Material Plant during the operations planning, commissioning and ramp-up of the plant. Rhodia is uniquely qualified to assist Lynas in this area as Rhodia currently operates similar plants in both France and China. Both Lynas and Rhodia anticipate that co-operation on the development of the separation processing of the Advanced Materials Plant would bring significant benefits of acceleration and de-risking of the commissioning and ramp-up of the plant leading to more assured on-specification product deliveries to customers.



Page 2

Lynas’ Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis, stated “Stability of Rare Earths supply chains is vital to support the growing demand for the important applications which rely on Rare Earths. As current production is curtailed due to production quotas and environmental concerns in China, Lynas can bring stability of supply by not only owning the source of our products in the ground at Mount Weld, but also by processing them in world class production facilities which are designed to meet the strict environmental requirements of Australia and Malaysia.”



About Lynas Corporation

Lynas owns the richest known deposit of Rare Earths, also known as Lanthanides, in the world at Mount Weld, near Laverton in Western Australia. This deposit underpins Lynas’ strategy to create a reliable, fully integrated source of Rare Earths supply from the mine through to customers in the global Rare Earths industry.
Development of the mine is complete and in November 2009 Lynas completed an A$450million capital raising to enable the completion of construction of the Concentration Plant at Mount Weld and an Advanced Materials Plant to process the Mount Weld concentrate through to final Rare Earths oxides in the Gebeng Industrial Estate, Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia. Lynas has received all required approvals to construct both plants.
The company plans to become the benchmark for security of supply and a world leader in quality and environmental responsibility to an international customer base.
‘Rare Earths’ is the term given to fifteen metallic elements known as the lanthanide series, plus yttrium. They play a key role in green environmental products, from energy efficient compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) to hybrid cars, automotive catalytic converters and wind turbine generators. They are also essential in the development and manufacturing of many modern technological products, from hard disc drives to flat panel displays, iPods and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans.

For further information please contact Nicholas Curtis or Matthew James on [phone] or visit www.lynascorp.com

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[Optimist_]

Ein Interview mit dem Zukunftsforscher Matthias Horx.

Quelle: Euro am Sonntag.

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/nachricht/288044…

...

, die einseitige Konzentration von Umweltschützern und Politik auf den Kohlendioxidausstoß. Inzwischen ist dieser Trend in der Wirtschaft angekommen. "Wir stehen vor einer neuen Kondratieff-Welle, einer technologischen Grundinnovation, die sich um die Frage der Energienetzwerke, der CO2-freien Energienutzung dreht", so Horx.


Das Spektrum für Investitionen reicht hier von Elektroautos über eine völlig neue, energieaktive Architektur bis hin zu solaren Großkraftwerken in der Wüste. Was vor 150 Jahren die Eisenbahn, vor 100 Jahren das Stromnetz, vor einem halben Jahrhundert die Autobahn und vor 15 Jahren das Internet war, werde jetzt das neue, grüne Energienetz. "Unternehmen, die in diesem Sektor arbeiten, werden eine glorreiche Zukunft haben - wenn sie die schnellen Innovationsschübe in diesem Sektor mitmachen können."

...

Einen guten Tag an alle.

[JoJo49]

http://www.euractiv.com/en/sustainability/raw-materials-head…
Raw materials: Heading for a global resource crunch?
Published: Monday 18 January 2010
With the world's population growing and industrialisation rising, competition for raw materials is intensifying, raising concerns about access to key natural resources for European industry.


EU industries, and particularly those active in telecoms, aerospace and other hi-tech sectors, are facing fierce competition for natural resources from emerging economies.

China and India for instance are increasingly using raw materials from Africa and Latin America, which are home to some of Earth's largest reserves of minerals and metals.

According to the European Parliament, the price of non-fuel commodities rose by 159% between 2002 and 2008, metal and mineral prices by 285% and agricultural raw material prices by 133%.

As a response, in November 2008, the European Commission presented a new 'integrated strategy' for raw materials (EurActiv 05/11/08).

The proposed strategy suggested three pillars in its policy responses to those challenges, which could pose a threat to the competitiveness of European industry:

■Better and undistorted access to raw materials on world markets;
■Improved conditions for raw materials extraction within Europe, and;
■Reducing the EU's consumption of raw materials by increasing resource efficiency and recycling (see EurActiv LinksDossier).
Another related component of the EU's response is the sustainable consumption and production action plan, launched in 2008 (see EurActiv LinksDossier).

Issues:
Resource scarcity

With the world's population expanding rapidly and industrialisation taking hold in new corners of the globe, competition for raw materials is intensifying, triggering concerns about resource scarcity and the environmental 'footprint' of the planet's population (EurActiv 29/10/08).

The 2008 Living Planet Report , by the Global Footprint Network, WWF and the Zoological Society of London, said growing populations are putting so much pressure on Earth's natural resources that two planets will be required by the early 2030s if current lifestyles are to be maintained (EurActiv 25/09/09).

Considering the uneven distribution of natural resources, the report suggest that most nations have become ecological debtors, covering their excess demand by importing resources from other countries.

In the EU, the total ecological footprint is twice the size of the region's biocapacity, with the UK and Spain, for example, running ecological deficits greater than 150%.

Critical list of raw materials

This surging demand for raw materials has put unprecedented pressure on commodity prices, and has in some cases led to concerns over their availability.

"A strong and unforeseen surge in demand, essentially driven by strong growth in emerging economies, led to a tripling of metal prices between 2002 and 2008," the Commission underlined in its 2008 raw materials initiative.

"In particular, China accounted for more than 50% of the growth in world consumption of industrial metals between 2002 and 2005."

In addition, geographical distribution of natural resources is uneven across the globe, with extraction activities often limited to a number of countries which sometimes lack political and economic stability, the Commission said.

High-tech raw materials are of particular concern as they are increasingly the basis of innovative 'green technologies' associated with renewable energy and the reduction of greenhouse gases, the Commission pointed out.

For example, China produces 95% of all rare earth concentrates (needed for hand-held consumer electronics, LCD displays and high performance magnets), Brazil 90% of all niobium (needed for steel alloys in gas pipelines and super alloys in high-performance jet aircraft) and South Africa produces 79% of all rhodium (needed for car catalysts), the Commission said.

The EU executive's 2008 assessment contained a preliminary list of twenty raw materials considered to be potentially critical for the EU economy. These include niobium, platinum and titanium (see annex of Commission's raw materials initiative ).

Platinum and palladium, for instance, are used in the fuel cells that power hydrogen cars, while silicon, gallium and silver are used in solar cells. Cu-Indium-Gallium-Selenium (CIGS) alloys are used in 'thin-film' photovoltaic technology for solar cells. Indium is used to manufacture microprocessors and the next generation of ultra-small RFID chips, which can be embedded in all sorts of consumer products.

■A 2008 report by the US National Research Council listed five non-energy raw materials considered to be 'highly critical': indium, manganese, niobium, rare earths and the platinum group metals.
■A French study identified short to medium-term risks to supply of a number of materials: antimony, chromite, cobalt, germanium, gallium, indium, lithium, magnesium, molybdenum, platinum, palladium, rhodium, rare earths, rhenium, titanium and tungsten.
■The Commission said the list could be expanded to take in five more materials (chromite, manganese, niobium, tantalum and vanadium) targeted by the US report and Japanese stockpiling policy, "and for which there is a high degree of concentration of producing countries".
EU to test raw materials' 'criticality'

At the invitation of EU industry ministers, an expert group was set up by the European Commission to refine the draft list. In December 2009, the group expanded the list to include nineteen new substances, bringing the total to thirty-nine (EurActiv 01/12/09).

A first batch of raw materials – cobalt, lithium and rare earths – was examined by the group during its first meeting in November 2009, with the objective of testing the Commission's proposed methodology on the raw materials' level of 'criticality'. The expert group has already identified three types of risk:

■Import risk, where raw materials are imported from a politically instable region or from a country where the market economy does not work. "That is relatively easy to do as the World Bank has put together governance indexes which measure the political and economic stability index of countries," said an EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the methodology is still being adjusted.
■Production risk within the EU, with potential problems such as land access. "If we are in a country for example where the population density is very high, where urbanisation is very high, obviously access will be weak," the EU official said.
■Environmental risk, based on indicators such as air or soil pollution, where the impact of raw materials use is measured from an environmental point of view. "This is innovative compared to other studies," the EU official said. "We have just launched a life-cycle analysis to determine what the environmental impact is for each raw material in terms of exploitation, use, treatment, recycling, etc., for air or soil pollution as well as emissions of greenhouse gases."
The three types of indicator are then aggregated to determine risk. "For example, a given raw material may be used in 40% by the automotive sector and 30% by the aerospace sector," the official said. "And so we can utilise these percentages to aggregate the economic importance of these raw materials for the sectors that use them."

"The economic importance will be determined either by the employment or the added value of the sector," the official said.

A key factor will be whether or not the raw material can be easily substituted. "If it can be substituted in full by another raw material, in this case of course the risk is easy to avoid," the official explained.

Concern over Chinese rare earths

Of particular worry to Europeans are rare earths, collections of metals and elements found in a wide range of gadgets and consumer goods, including batteries used in electric cars.

Among the rare earths where shortages are likely is neodymium. Neodymium is the key component of an alloy used to make the high-power, lightweight magnets used in electric motors of hybrid cars, such as the Prius, Honda Insight and Ford Focus, as well as in generators for wind turbines, Reuters reported.

The problem is that 95% of global production and about 60% of consumption currently originates from China, according to the US geological survey. "We have already identified access difficulties, with China obviously being one of the countries where we have identified access difficulties," said the EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Some rare earths can be found in Europe, the official added, saying geological information is "relatively precise" on this point. "So this is very important to know because if we find that rare earths are critical and that there is an import risk from China, then there is a first recommendation that goes without saying: let us try to exploit these earths in Europe if that is possible."

However, they may be located close to urban areas, complicating their exploitation by the mining industry. Moreover, there is no comprehensive geological map of Europe available yet, making predictions more difficult.

Raw materials 'diplomacy': EU-China trade disputes

Discussing the Commission's proposal in May 2009, European ministers in charge of industry called for an EU "raw materials diplomacy," and invited the EU executive to "reinforce the dialogue with all relevant third countries and raise the issue in all appropriate trade and other fora".

Shortly afterwards on 23 June, the United States and the EU filed a complaint with the World Trade Organisation (WTO), accusing Beijing of unfairly favouring its steel, chemicals and other industries by restricting access to nine types of key raw materials, despite a pledge to eliminate export taxes and charges made when it joined the WTO in 2001 (EurActiv 24/06/09).

According to the European Commission, China imposes "quantitative restrictions on the export of bauxite, coke, fluorspar, silicon carbide and zinc," increasing supply issues for Europe's industries. Products concerned are used by the steel, aluminium and chemical industries, the Commission said, and serve a multitude of sectors, including the automotive sector, which has been hit badly by the economic recession.

This hurts foreign "downstream producers" of goods, such as aluminium producers and steelworkers, since the export restraints limit their access to raw materials and raise world market prices for the materials while lowering the prices that domestic Chinese producers have to pay, US officials said.

In September 2009, Chinese media reported that Beijing would start applying quotas on exports of rare earths and other exotic metals of which it is the only major supplier, citing environmental reasons.

Other major suppliers of rare earths include the United States, but it has become dependent on Chinese imports because production prices there are lower, according to the US geological survey.

Scrap metal: Waste or usable product?

In Germany, the EU's largest exporter of manufactured goods, enterprises have already warned of a looming raw materials gap, singling out scrap metal as an issue.

Ulrich Grillo, chairman of the commodities group at BDI, the German business lobby, said China alone restricted trade of raw materials and semi-finished products with some 373 export duties (EurActiv 26/08/09).

Grillo, who is also chief executive of German zinc producer Grillo-Werke, said China planned to refund value added tax on imports of scrap metal from 2010. When China made such refunds in the past, they had a "vacuum cleaner impact on the scrap market and sucked the world scrap metal market empty," he said, according to Reuters.

Germany needed such scrap metal as about 50% of German metal production involved scrap, Grillo said. European exports of secondary raw materials had risen strongly in past years, he said. "Such exports are often illegal," he said. "Waste is often exported as usable goods or false declarations of material type are made."

"The central problem is the boundary between waste and usable products."

Under half of automobiles sent for scrap in Germany were recycled into metal, he said. He estimated that 40% of German automobiles sent for scrap were sent abroad without notification as exports.

Over a third of global steel production now comes from recycled scrap material, but recycling rates vary a lot across the globe, according to a report by the WorldWatch Institute (EurActiv 7/09/09).

Michael Renner, senior researcher at the institute, explains that rapid growth of the Chinese economy has pulled up production since the late 1990s and that China's steel production "skyrocketed from 66 million tons in 1990 to 500 million tons in 2008, accounting for 38% of the world's total".

Recycled steel currently amounts to some 35% of total steel output and is said to save up to 75% of the energy needed to produce virgin steel.

Concentration in the mining industry

German industry was also worried about the increasing concentration of global commodities supplies in the hands of a small number of powerful companies, such as the iron ore joint venture formed in June by mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

There was also concern about increasing Chinese purchases of shareholdings in nickel mines in Canada and South America.

The BDI's Grillo called for greater political attention to be paid to European commodity supplies. Germany and the European Union should develop a unified commodities strategy involving more energetic action to tackle international trade distortions which disrupt commodity trade, he said, according to Reuters.

Positions:
The European Commission's proposed strategy was supported by EU industry ministers in May 2009, but they said further steps were needed before it can be finalised (EurActiv 04/06/09).

"Reducing energy consumption and the use of raw materials, removing trade barriers to improve the supply of raw materials, improving energy- and resource-efficiency and achieving a greater use of renewable energy sources and secondary raw materials should be the guiding principles for European industry," the ministers said in their conclusions on the proposed strategy.

"The European economy is dependent on a number of energy and non-energy raw materials," the ministers said, adding that achieving a "resource-efficient economy should be a guiding principle for European industrial policy".

In a May 2008 resolution , the European Parliament said it was "concerned about the trend to restrict free access to raw materials in third countries" but also recognised "the right of countries to restrict access to their raw materials for environmental purposes or to address critical shortages of supply when necessary".

Noting that 95 of 141 developing countries derive at least 50% of their export earnings from commodity exports, the Parliament said it regretted that many developing countries have been "locked into the production and export of raw materials and commodities". But it also underlined "the opportunities" for producer countries in their own exploitation of raw materials "when fundamental rules of transparency and fair competition are respected".

MEPs pointed out that China's raw materials policy in Africa "is having a major and negative impact on global security of access to commodities" and stressed "the need to overcome the current approach based on one-to-one relations between states and neglecting references to human rights, corporate social responsibility and environmental and social standards, in favour of a multilateral approach based on the criteria of sufficiency and sustainability of resource use".

In its resolution, the Parliament said that raw materials and commodities should be understood in broad terms as encompassing "agricultural food products, agricultural primary commodities, metals, minerals and energy products, which serve as input in the industrial process, whether processed, unprocessed, or recycling products such as scrap".

Eurometaux, a trade association representing the non-ferrous metals industry, said access to raw materials is "vital for the survival" of the sector. European industry, it says, is currently dependent on imports for "the essential part" of its raw materials, a market which amounted to "more than 20 billion euro in 2008". For this reason, Eurometaux calls for "an integrated strategy to tackle the issue of access to raw materials, liberalising the markets and the mutual lifting of commercial barriers".

To combat soaring consumption of natural resources, the World Resources Forum (WRF) is calling for a global strategy to frame a new economic model that would directly tax raw materials instead of products and labour.

Adjusting the fiscal framework is "the most fundamental and urgent pre-requisite for approaching a sustainable future," the WRF stated, saying this would have the "side effect of creating new jobs and redistributing income to developing countries where many of the resources come from".

Going even further, the declaration suggests that instead of applying VAT to final products, "it may be more effective to tax natural resources at the point at which they are removed from nature or where they enter the industrial metabolism".

Friends of the Earth Europe (FoEE), an environmental NGO, has expressed "severe concerns" about the European Commission's raw materials initiative, saying it "will have a detrimental effect on the environment and developing countries".

FoEE pointed to "fundamental contradictions" in the EU’s proposed strategy which, on the one hand, reiterates the need for increased resource efficiency and recycling of raw materials and on the other, spells out "aggressive plans to grab other countries' resources".

Environmentalists said they are "particularly concerned that the proposals challenge other countries' rights to restrict trade on environmental grounds and their ability to process raw materials themselves". According to Friends of the Earth Europe, "the proposals aimed at improving the EU's 'security of supply' of raw materials succumb to the selfish interests of Europe's industries and are at odds with the long-term sustainability of the natural resources sector".

Michael Warhurst of FoEE deplored that Europe "has no targets" for reducing resource use, while "new policies are not assessed for their potential to increase our resource efficiency".

In a joint report with the Sustainable Europe Research Institute, FoEE is calling on the EU to measure its resource use and adopt new policies, such as higher recycling targets, to increase resource efficiency.

They suggest that Europe should measure its use of materials in particular, but also its land and water use and greenhouse gas emissions, taking account of the impact of Europe's consumption on the rest of the world in terms of imported resources.

Non-metallic extractive industries have been actively promoting their image at European level. The minerals industry group IMA Europe says mineral rocks such as calcium carbonates, dolomite, borates, diatomite, kaolin, plastic clays, bentonite, feldspar, silica and talc are "of fundamental strategic importance" to EU industry.

The automobile, aerospace, telecoms and construction sector for example all rely on industrial minerals that have a wide range of applications, including paint, electronics, metal casting and foundry, says IMA Europe. Industrial minerals are usually transformed into everyday goods, from glass and ceramics (up to 99% of IM) to paper (up to 30% of talc, bentonite, kaolin and calcium carbonate).

But, unlike other mining sectors, non-metallic extractive industries and their markets are largely self-sufficient, says IMA Europe. It therefore warns that regulating the use of natural resources may lead to serious unwanted side effects, such as the disruption of the free market.
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Grüsse JoJo

[think_about]

Aktuelle REE Preise:

http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25

Ist wohl ein deutlicher Aufwärtstrend

thinkabout

[JoJo49]

http://www.jackliftonreport.com/2010/01/the-rare-earth-crisi…
The Rare Earth Crisis Of The Second Decade Of The Twenty-First Century: A Threat Or An Opportunity?
by Jack Lifton on January 16, 2010 · 5 comments

in China, Legislation, News Analysis, Rare Earths

Allow me to pose a question: with regard to the rare earths, is there a global threat of supply interruption by China – or is any threat really due to a failure of the American way of doing business?

America was actually self-sufficient in its supply of rare earth metals until 2002. In that year, due to predatory pricing from China, Molycorp shut down its mining and refining operations at the world’s best known and best documented high reserve high grade rare earth mine at Mountain Pass, California. In 2002 all of America’s needs for the rare earths then being used, could have been met by the existing production capacity at Mountain Pass. There were even then in 2002, other operations within the USA refining and purifying rare earth metals, alloying them, and making magnets, batteries, catalysts, and laser components from domestically produced rare earths, principally mined in California but with some also then produced in Florida. The supply and value chains for manufacturing rare earth dependent products within the US were complete.

In 2002, China’s pricing, even delivered within the USA, dropped below that of Molycorp’s costs and the company elected to shut down the rare earth mining facilities rather than operate at a loss. Washington and the National Association of Manufacturers were blissfully unaware of, or disinterested in, these events either in California or Inner Mongolia. although a 5% tariff on imported rare earths had been enacted and, incredibly, is still in place, to help Molycorp, but alas in the clueless rush of 2002 by short-sighted Americans to outsource everything to China, it looked like a brilliant idea to even source their critical raw materials within China. Congress was careful though not to allow rare earths to be deemed critical or even given the lowly title of strategic, for fear that this might make waves in the commercial world of the lobbying vote buyers or generate a “Buy American” ripple among in the somnolent voters.

Why have American companies systematically ignored long term risks of supply interruption so easily insured against? One answer is to examine the use of the word “guidance” in Stockpicking Land, otherwise known as Wall Street. Often meaningless, because they fail to take into account real contingencies, are the exact figures given as “guidance” by public companies. Share prices then actualize these made-up figures by going up if they are met and down if they are not. This means as it has always meant, that the actualization of long term planning is of little or no interest to corporate financial officers, except as the actual ongoing capitalized costs of such planned operations may reduce earnings in the quarter for which guidance is being sought. Such impact is to be avoided at all costs – excuse the pun – if earnings are to be maximized and so long term projects with high front-end costs, such as mining and refining, are to be avoided by prudent bean-counters. This “the share price this quarter is all that counts” mentality has now brought on the rare earth supply crisis, which, since it has carried over from 2009 to the present day and grown ever more ominous, I now christen “The Rare Earth Crisis of The Second Decade of the Twenty-First Century.”

This nonsense approach based on share price being more important than long term survivability, has basically eliminated projects that are high cost with long time for return on capital, such as securing supplies of rare metals from the core “competency” of Fortune 500 corporations.

Although there is no present or near term military threat status, or even posture, between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, there is a long term threat to American economic independence, which, down the road, could indeed impact the threat response capability of the United States military; it is this long term threat that has been ignored until it has become a shorter term threat. Continuing to ignore the threat of supply interruption of strategic and critical materials is now foolhardy at best and may be dangerous to more than our economic well-being.

Yet even today, both the New York Times and the House Armed Services Committee seem to be unaware of the results of American financial, industrial, and political myopia and seek to personify a threat of supply interruption as being by China rather than being on account of American inaction. Washington’s politicians are charged with the common defense, yet they ignore a grave threat to the ability of the United States to maintain economic independence and military superiority while showing grave concern only for special interest group projects. Incredibly, they vote billions to create green jobs in industries where Asia has clear superiority such as battery development and manufacturing, but they ignore the one investment that could give US technology and know-how a clear advantage; the production and refining of rare earth metals and their end products. This industry could be revived and built to a world class level in less than 5 years by a government guarantee of seed money of less than 2 billion dollars – just one day of current Defense Department’s expenditures, or, a better measure, less than 2 hours of the Federal Government’s total expenditures. Note well that if the US gives up permanently its productive capacity for rare metals such as the rare earth metals, then it will be Chinese bureaucrats who decide the future of American industry.

Please go to the web site of the U.S. House of Representatives, House Armed Services Committee, and read and view the details of the 01/13/10 hearing on China - the exact title of the hearing was: “The Full Committee will meet to receive testimony on China: Recent Security Developments”.

One hour and 27 minutes into the hearing, Representative Coffman (R-Co) asked that a question about the rare earth supply issue be asked of the (military) witnesses. Although the question was not put directly to a witness, it was put into the record of the hearing so as to be answered later. It was a very good, very well thought out question.

If you wish to read the text of Colorado Representative Coffman’s question, I reproduce it in its entirety here:

Proposed Question for HASC Committee Hearing on China - 01/13/10

“I’d like to ask the panel to address what I believe has become a very serious emerging national security threat as it relates to China. It has to do with industrial base supply issues controlled by China, and not any specific military threat. But I am hoping – given your backgrounds and your current positions focusing on Pacific Rim nations – to garner the benefits of your thoughts and comments.

Worldwide demand for rare earth elements is escalating rapidly. Rare earths are used in a number of applications including emerging green technologies, and many of us on this dais have concerns as to what that means for American innovation and domestic job growth. But the fact that so many national security and defense systems require these materials to function and operate is of greater concern for us here at this hearing.

Ninety-five percent of worldwide rare earth reserves being accessed today are located in China or controlled by Chinese-led interests. Today, there is no rare earth element production of significance taking place in North America or anywhere outside of China, and Chinese domestic demand for rare earth elements could easily equal Chinese production as early as 2012. Furthermore, in October 2009 an internal report by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology disclosed proposals to ban the export of five rare earths and restrict supplies of the remaining metals as early as next year.

I ask both witnesses to comment on these developments and address their entities’ situational awareness of this reliance, what they feel are the strategic implications, and how they plan to develop appropriate policy to mitigate this impending supply crisis as it relates to national security and defense.”

As I said above, the panelists requested that the question be submitted into the record for response at a later date. That basically means they either didn’t know enough about the issue and/or were concerned about responding and saying the wrong thing. They were obviously not prepared for that line of questioning.

But I believe that the cat is out of the bag, and I urge my readers to write, email, or phone their Congressmen and ask when the question will be addressed and answered.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=de&sl=en&u=http://w…

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Wenn die Beschreibung von Jack Lifton zutrifft und er bezeiht sich hier immerhin auf die z.Z. vorhandene Faktenlage, dann kann man IHMO nach dem Kommentar eines User aus dem HC-Thread von Heute, der sich auf diesen Bericht von Jack Lifton bezieht, nur zustimmen.

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=108563…
american myopia - dixit honorable jack lifton (triluk)
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Back)
Code: LYC - LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED ( 65c | Price Chart | Announcements | Google LYC)
Post: 4948923 (Start of thread) Views: 95
Posted: 17/01/10 12:58 Stock Price (at time of posting): 65c Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Stock Held From: 83.217.xxx.xxx

Quote from article below:
"Note well that if the US gives up permanently its productive capacity for rare metals such as the rare earth metals, then it will be Chinese bureaucrats who decide the future of American industry."

LYC is rather near to production.
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Grüsse JoJo

[JoJo49]

http://www.ftd.de/wissen/technik/:technologiemetalle-monopol…

Technologiemetalle

Monopol für Hightech-Rohstoffe
Ohne Neodym oder Tantal geht in einigen Technologiebranchen nichts mehr. China fördert diese Metalle exklusiv - und tauscht sie gern gegen Know-how.
von Nora Schlüter

So kann es gehen: Jahrzehntelang fristeten Metalle wie Indium, Tantal, Yttrium und Neodym ein Schattendasein fernab jedes öffentlichen Interesses. Inzwischen erhalten die sogenannten Technologiemetalle aufgrund ihrer zentralen Funktionen in Handys, Festplatten, Solarzellen, Elektromotoren, Displays und Windkraftturbinen reichlich Aufmerksamkeit. Meist jedoch negativer Art: Die Exoten unter den Metallen sind zu einem Synonym für drohenden Rohstoffmangel geworden.

Nicht dass es auf der Welt nicht genügend Vorräte gäbe. Allerdings sind die Lagerstätten aus Sicht der westlichen Wirtschaft ungünstig auf der Erde verteilt. Paradebeispiel hierfür sind die Seltenerdmetalle, die zu 97 Prozent in China gefördert werden. Vertreter dieser Gruppe von Metallen sind in unterschiedlichen Technologien enthalten: Aus Neodym etwa werden Permanentmagnete für die Motoren von Elektroautos und die Generatoren in Windkraftanlagen gefertigt. Tantal kommt in Form von winzigen Kondensatoren in Handys und Rechnern zum Einsatz.
China hat inzwischen erkannt, welch unterirdischen Schatz es besitzt - zumal das rasante Wirtschaftswachstum die Nachfrage nach Hightechmetallen im eigenen Land stetig steigen lässt. Die Aussicht auf steigende Exportzölle und rigide Ausfuhrquoten gruselt Industrievertreter aus anderen Ländern. Auch Indium, eine wichtige Zutat für Displays und Dünnschichtsolarzellen, wird nach Angaben des US Geological Survey zu 60 Prozent in China gefördert.



Nervosität kommt bei den Rohstoffeinkäufern von Autokonzernen, Solarfirmen und Elektronikherstellern jedoch nicht auf. Tatsächlich herrscht bei vielen Unternehmen wachsame Gelassenheit. Während der Industrieverband BDI bei der Sicherung des Rohstoffnachschubs die Politik in der Verantwortung sieht, knüpfen die Firmen bereits fleißig Kontakte.
Die Siemens -Tochter Osram verkündete im Oktober die Gründung eines Joint Ventures mit dem chinesischen Unternehmen China Rare Earth, einem Produzenten und Verarbeiter von seltenen Erden. Die Zusammenarbeit, die auch Forschung und Entwicklung umfassen soll, nützt beiden Seiten. Osram sichert sich Zugang zu den Metallen, die es als Leuchtmittel benötigt, die Chinesen holen sich technische Expertise ins Land.
Das japanische Unternehmen Toyota dagegen will raus aus der Abhängigkeit von China. Der erwartete Siegeszug der Elektromobilität bedeutet vor allem einen steigenden Bedarf an Neodym für den Bau der Motoren. Deshalb hat sich der Konzern mit dem Kauf eines Handelsunternehmens für seltene Erden Rechte an Vorräten in anderen Ländern gesichert. Ab Mitte 2010 sollen die ersten Lieferungen aus Indien eintreffen, ein Jahr später beginnt die Produktion in Vietnam. Auch die BASF schielt nach neuen Rohstoffquellen: Der Chemiekonzern ist an der Deutschen Rohstoff AG beteiligt, einem Unternehmen, das nach eigenen Angaben unter anderem über Lagerstätten für Indium, Zink, Edelmetalle und seltene Erden verfügt.

Der Autokonzern Daimler dagegen vertraut auf seine guten Kontakte ins Reich der Mitte. Mit einer Verknappung der Rohstoffexporte wollten Fördernationen oft Know-how ins Land holen, um die Weiterverarbeitung selbst zu betreiben. "Geht es dabei um die Autoproduktion mit alternativen Antrieben, könnte Daimler sich mit eigenen Produktionsstandorten in den Ländern daran beteiligen, zum Beispiel durch Kooperationen", sagt ein Sprecher des Konzerns.
Auch Rohstoffexperte Gerd Angerer vom Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung sieht keinen Grund zur Panik. Sein Institut hat im Auftrag des Wirtschaftsministeriums eine Studie zur Entwicklung des Rohstoffbedarfs für Zukunftstechnologien erstellt. "Natürlich können Versorgungsengpässe Firmen schwer zusetzen", sagt Angerer. Aber innovative Unternehmen fänden mittel- und längerfristig Antworten auf solche Krisen.


Grüsse JoJo

PS:
...wie man das u.a. auch bei Lynas verfolgen kann, denn Lynas hat inzwischen mit 6 Firmen Vorverkaufsverträge in Höhe von über 490 Mio. USD, aus einem Teilbereich ihrer Produktion innerhalb der ersten 5 Produktionsjahre abgeschlossen.

[JoJo49]

http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/studie-ele…
Studie:
Elektroautos erobern schon bald die Großstädte

Elektrofahrzeuge könnten sich schneller durchsetzen als allgemein erwartet. In den Megacitys dürften sie einer Studie zufolge schon in fünf Jahren eine brauchbare Alternative zu brennstoffgetriebenen Autos sein und einen Anteil von teilweise mehr als 15 Prozent an den Neuzulassungen haben - und zwar auch ohne eine dichte öffentliche Lade-Infrastruktur.

DÜSSELDORF. In New York ist jeder fünfte Autokäufer und in Schanghai sogar jeder dritte aufgeschlossen für ein Elektrofahrzeug. Das zeigt eine am Montag vorab veröffentlichte Studie der Unternehmensberatung McKinsey und der öffentlichen Verwaltungen von Schanghai und New York sowie der französischen Regierung. Demnach könnten in der US-Metropole einem realistischen Szenario zufolge 16 Prozent der im Jahr 2015 verkauften Neuwagen einen Elektroantrieb haben, während dieser Wert in der französischen Hauptstadt neun Prozent erreicht und in dem chinesischen Ballungsraum fünf Prozent. In absoluten Zahlen bedeutet das, auf den Straßen New Yorks könnten in fünf Jahren 70 000 Elektrofahrzeuge unterwegs sein, in Paris 62 000 und in Schanghai 26 000.

In den weltweit 25 Megacitys (mit mehr als zehn Mio. Einwohnern im Ballungsraum) werden zehn Prozent des globalen Kohlendioxid-Ausstoßes verursacht. Deshalb sind sie nach Meinung von McKinsey "die natürliche Umgebung für das Entstehen von Elektromobilität". Zur Verbreitung von Elektroautos ist In der Anfangsphase der Studie zufolge keine dichte öffentliche Lade-Infrastruktur notwendig. "Die Chancen der Elektromobilität werden bislang meist danach beurteilt, wie schnell eine dichte öffentliche Ladeinfrastruktur aufgebaut werden kann", sagt Christian Malorny, der bei McKinsey das Beratungsgeschäft für deutsche Klienten aus der Automobil- und Zulieferindustrie leitet. "Unsere Studie kommt zu dem Schluss, dass in den nächsten fünf Jahren kein dichtes öffentliches Ladenetz notwendig ist."

Den Umfragen zufolge stellen sich die frühen Elektroauto- Käufer darauf ein, ihr Fahrzeug zu Hause oder im Parkhaus aufladen zu können - ein flächendeckendes Netz aus Ladestationen ist in der Startphase gar nicht erforderlich. "Die Autofahrer werden ihre Fahrgewohnheiten ganz selbstverständlich daran ausrichten, dass sie bei jeder Fahrt wieder nach Hause zurückkehren müssen", so Malorny. Laut der Beratungsfirma Bain zeigen Tests etwa von Nutzern von E-Autos in London, dass die heute noch begrenzte Reichweite für sie nach kurzer Eingewöhnung kein Thema ist.

Um die Bereitschaft zum Umstieg zu fördern, wäre dagegen verstärkte Verbraucherinformation sehr wirkungsvoll, denn 40 Prozent der Konsumenten wissen laut McKinsey nichts über Elektrofahrzeuge. Einen gewissen finanziellen Anreiz hält die Unternehmensberatung zwar für notwendig, um vor allem in China zu Beginn eine Nachfrage zu schaffen. Monetäre Anreize allein reichten aber nicht aus, um einen umfangreichen Markt zu etablieren. "Solche Förderprogramme, wie sie heute in vielen Ländern propagiert werden, werden der Elektromobilität nicht zum Durchbruch verhelfen", sagt Malorny.

Für die Erstkäufer in New York ist etwa das Recht, spezielle Fahrspuren zu nutzen, zum Beispiel Busspuren, attraktiver als ein reiner Steuernachlass in Höhe von 3000 Dollar. Interessante Anreize für potenzielle Käufer von Elektroautos wäre zudem eine Jahreskarte für den öffentlichen Nahverkehr oder ein öffentliches Programm, in dem für jeden abgesetzten Wagen mit alternativem Antrieb Bäume angepflanzt würden. "Hersteller werden dazu übergehen, E-Autofahrern für längere Fahrten ein Auto mit Verbrennungsmotor zur Verfügung zu stellen", erwartet NordLB-Autoanalyst Frank Schwope.

Besonders gute Chancen räumt die Studie in der Anfangsphase Hybrid-Autos mit Stromanschluss ein, die neben dem Elektroantrieb auch über einen kleinen Verbrennungsmotor zur Reichweitenverlängerung verfügen. Autokäufern werden diese sogenannten Plug-In-Hybride im Vergleich zu reinen Elektroautos, die wohl von 2015 an Marktanteile gewinnen, anfangs einen Kostenvorteil bieten.

Deshalb haben Elektroautos in Schanghai vor 2015 keine Marktchance und werden auch 2020 noch hinter den Marktanteilen von New York liegen, so die Studie. "Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der chinesische Autofahrer bisher nicht bereit ist, einen Kompromiss bei Reichweite und Funktionalität einzugehen", sagt Axel Krieger, Experte für Elektromobilität im New Yorker Büro von McKinsey und Leiter der Studie. Die Verbraucher im Reich der Mitte können sich häufig nur ein Auto leisten, das deshalb alle automobilen Anforderungen erfüllen muss.

Davon profitiert im Wettstreit um die Antriebstechnik der Zukunft nach Einschätzung des Autoexperten Ferdinand Dudenhöffer vor allem Hybrid-Pionier Toyota . Der weltgrößte Autobauer aus Japan habe mit dem Fokus auf Plug-In-Hybride einen "goldenen Mittelweg" gewählt. Hingegen sei VW zu schwach bei alternativen Antrieben aufgestellt und Renault setze zu stark auf den reinen Elektroantrieb, schrieb der Professor an der Universität Duisburg-Essen in einer neuen Studie. "Bevor VW seinen ersten Hybrid an einen Kunden übergibt, wird Toyota weltweit bereits 2,4 Mio. Hybrid-Fahrzeuge verkauft haben." Volkswagen will Mitte des Jahres erste Hybrid-Fahrzeuge ausliefern. "VW muss schneller werden, um in diesem wichtigen Markt den Anschluss zu finden."

Besser für reine Elektroautos sieht es in den westlichen Metropolen wie New York aus. "Gerade unter den 'Early Adopters', also den Kunden, die sich vor allen anderen ein Elektroauto anschaffen, sind viele gerne bereit, für einen geringeren Anschaffungspreis weniger Reichweite in Kauf zu nehmen. Für diese Kundengruppe ist das kleine elektrische Stadtauto perfekt zugeschnitten", sagt Krieger.

Auch die Bundesregierung hat einen 500 Millionen Euro schweren "nationalen Entwicklungsplan" aufgestellt, mit dessen Hilfe bis 2020 eine Million Elektrowagen auf die Straße kommen soll. Die meisten Experten erwarten, dass diese Programme fruchten werden. "2020 könnte in zehn Prozent der Neuwagen ein Elektromotor stecken", prognostiziert Christian Malorny von McKinsey.

Grüsse JoJo

[JoJo49]

Chartanalyse aus dem HC-Thread von Heute:
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=108114…
further gains likely - charts look good (KENZO)
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Back)
Code: LYC - LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED ( 64.5c | Price Chart | Announcements | Google LYC)
Post: 4924171 (Start of thread) Views: 256
Posted: 11/01/10 03:23 Stock Price (at time of posting): 63c Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Stock Held From: 60.240.xxx.xxx

Excellent week for Lynas having registered some strong percentage increases and a pick up in volume...Charts look good.

Here is a 1 year daily chart for Lynas.



- Strong daily up trend line has been tested on a number of occasions but has held strong.

Strong pull back from the September highs was on the back of a share purchase plan announcement with shares being offered at 45 cents.

The recent low was made in October where the stock price nailed the 195 EMA but failed to close below this level on a daily time frame.
Since the low in october the stock looks to have resumed its upward trajectory, making higher highs and higher lows.

Daily stochastics are currently showing an overbought situation, so the stock may need to consolidate a bit, maybe go side ways or provide another entry/accumulation opportunity by testing the daily up trend line.


Here is a 3 year weekly Chart:



- Strong weekly support line has remained in tact since march last year, with the stock failing to close below this line on a weekly time frame.

- Lynas managed to break and close above a strong down trending weekly resistance line.
A break one way or the other was imminent as support and resistance lines converged.

- The meausured repeating weekly range for Lynas is approx 38 cents, therefore look for this range to be repeated on this break.
If the Range plays out the target for Lynas is around 88 cents.( i think this will be achieved shortly).

This target level also coincides with a weekly resistance zone.

Break to the upside was on good volume - Weekly stochastics are looking to cross back up suggesting that the momentum is well and truely there to complete the measured range.



There seems to be some cash flowing back into the rare earths sector as the recent consolidation seems to be complete.
The lack of choice for Australian investors looking to gain exposure to the sector bodes well for Lynas.

Further gains look likely as Lynas is Technically and fundamentally shaping up to provide investors with a profitable 2010....Looks good!

GOOD LUCK!!


Grüsse JoJo