BMO Global Asset Management Releases 2015-2020 Global Investment Outlook Report

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS--(Marketwired - Dec. 12, 2014) - BMO Global Asset Management today released its second annual secular outlook report during a media panel featuring presentations from the firm's leading investment experts. The event was co-hosted by Barry McInerney and Rajiv Silgardo, Co-CEOs of BMO Global Asset Management.

The report, Secular Outlook 2015-2020, examines longer-term trends expected to drive the global economy and markets over the next three to five years. It represents the outcome of the Global Investment Forum hosted by BMO Global Asset Management, which was held in October and attended by the organization's investment leaders and strategists from around the world.

"This report is intended both to inform our clients and serve as a longer-term guide for our multi-asset solutions team," said Mr. McInerney. "Given that this is an annual report, we examined the three scenarios from last year and deepened our analysis, making adjustments accordingly. By offering our views on a variety of scenarios, we hope to provide investors with a comprehensive understanding of our thought process and investment framework."

With each scenario, the investment professionals at BMO Global Asset Management developed a likelihood for their occurrence. The three scenarios and their probabilities are as follows:

• The West Rides Again - Shifting Gears (60%): The consensus view of the firm is that ample liquidity and the broader growth environment favors the U.S., U.K. and Canada. In contrast, Japan, China and other parts of the West, namely continental Europe, may remain stagnant. The "Shifting Gears" scenario was added this year as those leading economies are picking up speed.

• Synchronized Growth - Threading the Needle (25%): The more optimistic outlook offering substantial upside has been reduced in probability relative to last year. "Threading the Needle" reflects the increased challenges faced by the world's central banks in coordinating their actions in hopes of achieving synchronized growth.

• Broken China - Bend But Do Not Break (15%): The least optimistic - and least likely - scenario considered by BMO Global Asset Management focuses on the growth-restricting forces that would bend the economies of the Eurozone and China. The likelihood of this scenario is slightly greater than last year because of problems facing these countries.

"This secular analysis informs our portfolio strategies and establishes guidelines for our active asset allocation decisions that may arise through our shorter-term outlooks," noted Mr. Silgardo. "'The West Rides Again' remains our central thesis and represents the key framework shaping our thinking, while the other scenarios serve as bookends to our main point of view. By honing these long-term predictions, we strengthen BMO Global Asset Management's position as a truly global firm with expertise in all corners of the world."