TransUnion's Prama(SM) Analytics Finds Energy-Reliant States Still Underperforming the Nation, While Recent Vintage Credit Card Loans Performing Worse

CHICAGO, IL--(Marketwired - October 24, 2016) - New data powered by TransUnion's (NYSE: TRU) Prama℠ analytics found that more recent vintage credit cards are performing worse than those issued earlier. Serious credit card delinquencies for energy-reliant states also continue to see larger yearly percentage increases. The latest findings, including data through the end of September 2016, were released at the Money 20/20 Conference in Las Vegas.

"The third quarter of 2016 is only a few weeks past, yet we are already able to see Q3 trends in the credit card marketplace via our Prama environment that could impact the lender-consumer dynamic," said Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card line of business leader at TransUnion. "In particular, we see underperformance of newer vintage cards compared to those from past years, despite the general improvement in the economy over time. We believe these increases are being driven in large part by the recent expansion of card credit by issuers to non-prime consumers, and the related growth of balances on those cards."

TransUnion's Prama Insights Vintage Analysis shows that the 90-day delinquency rate of credit cards six months after origination stands at 2.95% for 2015 originations, in contrast to 2.18% for the 2014 cohort and 1.50% for 2013.

As recent vintage delinquencies rise, the national average for serious credit card delinquency across all cohorts increased to 1.53% in Q3 2016. This is the highest level observed during the third quarter since a Q3 2012 reading of 1.65%. TransUnion analyzes year-over-year metrics to account for seasonality. "While we are seeing a slight uptick in credit card delinquencies, it should be noted that the current reading is nearly half of the almost 3% delinquency rate of Q3 2009," added Siegfried.

Energy States Continue to See Rising Delinquencies

Earlier this year, TransUnion conducted an analysis of energy state performance, which found that states such as Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming were experiencing elevated levels of delinquency compared to the rest of the nation. Six months later, credit card delinquency rates for these energy-sector states continue to grow faster than the rest of the U.S.

Energy State Credit Card Delinquency Performance --
Yearly Serious Delinquency Percentage Increase/Decrease

Credit Product