Hi prof19,
unter "Langfristaspekten" schau Dir diesen "Langeweiler" an (aus einem Börsenbrief):
Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE-SJT) Market Cap $935 million Shares
Outstanding 46 million Buy below $23/share
With the Memorial Day holiday pretty close at hand, the
unofficial start of summer begins. This is the time most
Americans take life just a bit easier, pile into the family car, van or SUV and take a well deserved vacation. Gasoline prices usually are at their highest during this peak driving season.
Unlike previous years when you might have mumbled or even cursed under your breath as you pulled into the gas station because of high prices, this months selection should bring a smile to your
face. San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE-SJT) is not the kind of stock that will be talked about at cocktails parties, in fact this is about as stealth a stock I could find. The only asset it has is a royalty interest in natural gas properties in New
Mexico.
SJT collects a portion of the net profits as its royalty. They dont even get their hands dirty drilling for the natural gas, Burlington Resources is contracted to do that. Like all royalty trusts, a bank gets the money and pays the shareholders. It is has no employees or operations. Do you hear the cash register ringing?
The main reason I like SJT out of all other royalty trust is its huge dividend of 9%. Each month SJT pays out a distribution based on the costs related to the volume of gas that is produced and other cost related to drilling. These two costs are fixed. The third factor, which is the real wild card, is the fluctuating price of natural gas. As natural gas prices have risen over the past few years, so have the distributions by SJT. So much so that
it now yields 9% at a time when money markets, which of course have little to no risk, are paying less than 1%.
Since we are entering the peak season for gasoline consumption and I dont see us driving around in electrics cars en masse over the next few months, my analysis shows SJT greatly undervalued. I think the street is heavily discounting the price of SJT due to the inherent volatility of energy prices. Also SJT has over 20
years of gas reserves still in the ground, assuming they continue production at 2004 levels. That makes me feel even better. In addition to the very generous yield, SJT has some room to move in terms of price appreciation.
According to my numbers, this is a stock that should be selling in the high $40s to low $50s over the next three to five years. It is currently trading in the low 20s, so SJT has a large upside potential. Place a sell stop at 25% below your entry price. As the stock rises, continue to raise your stop so that you are trailing the Friday close by 25%
5 JAHRE
Schönes Wochenende
kep