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May 19, 2004 OP-ED COLUMNIST Nuts With Nukes By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF There is one force that could rescue Iran`s hard-line ayatollahs from the dustbin of history: us. For all its denials, Iran seems to be pushing for nuclear warheads and for missiles to carry them. It could make its first weapon in two years, and it could eventually produce enough enriched uranium at Natanz for 25 weapons a year. Iran`s leaders have regularly gotten away with murder. They apparently helped bomb U.S. marines in Lebanon in 1983, a Jewish center in Argentina in 1994 and U.S. military barracks in Saudi Arabia in 1996. So it`s easy to understand why President Bush declared recently that it`s "intolerable" for Iran to be on the road toward nuclear weapons, adding, "Otherwise they will be dealt with, starting through the United Nations." To Mr. Bush, not unreasonably, Iran conjures up a frightening combination: nuts with nukes. The push for a tougher approach toward Iran isn`t partisan, and a President Kerry might also pursue a more confrontational, albeit more multilateral, approach to Iran. But that would be a mistake. First, it won`t work. If we haul Iran before the Security Council, it will restart its programs (it has suspended at least some) and kick out inspectors. Iran will respond to more pressure not by dropping its nuclear program, but by accelerating it. Second, we`ll create a nationalistic backlash in Iran that will keep hard-liners in power indefinitely. Our sanctions and isolation have kept dinosaurs in power in Cuba, North Korea and Burma, and my fear is that we`ll do the same in Iran. What I fear is this: Over the next year or two, the West will press Iran harder, Iran will halt its nuclear cooperation and evict inspectors, Israel will bomb a couple of Iran`s nuclear sites (a possibility widely discussed in security circles, although it would slow Iran`s nuclear progress without ending it), and Iran`s ayatollahs will benefit from a nationalistic surge to stay in power and rule more rabidly than ever. "We love America," began Mansour Jahanbakhsa, a businessman, in a typical comment, but he added that Iran should develop nuclear weapons. "Iranians would become angry at meddling by America," he said, and his demeanor changed. "We are an old country with an ancient civilization, and we are proud of it. How come Israel can have them and we can`t? It makes me angry." A young woman, Maryan Nazeri, complained about the regime but said she would support it in a confrontation over nuclear weapons. "We`re going to have them," she said. "Maybe we do already. It`s our right. We`re Iranians, so what do you expect? Just as you want America to be strong, we want Iran to be strong." Then Massoud Taheri scolded: "Your president calling us a rogue nation and disrespecting our 5,000 years of civilization is offensive. How many years of civilization do you have?" Our goal should be regime change in Tehran. But if Mr. Bush (or Mr. Kerry) pushes Tehran too hard over nukes, we`ll fail to get rid of either the nuclear program or this regime. The only alternative is engagement — the precise opposite of the sanctions and isolation that have been U.S. policy under both Presidents Clinton and Bush. Sanctions are even less effective against Iran than against, say, North Korea, because Iran oozes petroleum and is independently wealthy. Isolation by the U.S. has accomplished even less in Iran than it has in Cuba. So we should vigorously pursue a "grand bargain" in which, among other elements, Iran maintains its freeze on uranium enrichment and we establish diplomatic relations and encourage business investment, tourism and education exchanges. "What would destroy the conservatives [in Iran] would be a money flood" of American investment, says Hooshang Amirahmadi, the president of the American Iranian Council. "In just a few years, the conservatives would be finished." The bottom line is that we could soon have a pro-American Islamic democracy as a beacon for hope in the Middle East — in Tehran, not Baghdad. The risk is that we`ll blow it. * Iran is a dazzling smorgasbord, from its "Death to America" murals to its winding bazaars. You can join me on a multimedia tour of Iran here. Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Guten Morgen Mr. Bush |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Joerver (19.05.04 10:36:15) |
| Beitrag: | 16,556 von 35,423 (ID:13178373) |
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