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Hier noch was zu SSTI ---------------------------------------------------------------------- IC capacity ramp no cause for alarm, say analysts By Will Wade EE Times (07/27/00, 03:51:43 PM EDT) http://www.semibiznews.com/story/OEG20000727S0024 SAN FRANCISCO ( ChipWire) -- Reports of a downturn in the semiconductor industry havebeen greatly exaggerated, according to analysts and executives at the Robertson Stephens Semiconductor Conference this week here. Although chip companies are walking a fine line between increasing capacity and overbuilding production capability, the market should remain strong, analysts said, with no danger of over capacity through at least the end of next year. "I just don`t see any signs of a downturn yet," said Sue Billat, senior equipment industry analyst for Robertson Stephens. "The case is very strong that we will have a very healthy year in 2001, and probably a good 2002 as well." Though key technological and macroeconomic trends play a part, the most important factor for semiconductor pricing has always been capacity. When there are too many idle production lines in the fabs, prices fall. That`s when revenues decline, capital budgets get slashed, the equipment industry starts to slide and the entire semiconductor business moves south. Earlier this month, semiconductor analyst John Joseph of Salomon Smith Barney predicted that scenario, just days before the start of Semicon West, the equipment industry`s largest annual trade show. Noting the large number of new fab projects under way, Joseph said the industry had reached the peak of its upturn and was poised to begin its periodic descent. But Billat and others in the investment community challenged that analysis this week, maintaining that the chip business is still headed upward. They conceded, however, that fab-building fever means over capacity is an eventuality. New and improved fabs David Wang, senior vice president and a member of the office of the president at equipment industry giant Applied Materials Inc., said he is aware of some 13 new fab projects coming online this year, and 16 major expansion efforts. Total industry capacity will swell again next year, when another 16 fabs will be started and 15 existing sites will get major upgrades. Not only are there many more fabs, they are also more productive. "In 2000, the average output from each fab is 40,000 wafers per month," Wang said. "But by next year the output will increase to 60,000 wafers." Feeding the capacity increases is the switch to larger, 300-mm wafers, which deliver about 2.5 times as many chips as the current mainstream 200-mm size. "We believe that by 2003, there will be 15 full-volume 300-mm fabs in operation and another nine pilot lines running," said Wang. Billat predicted that demand for semiconductors will remain strong enough to soak up all of these new chips. Not only is the PC sector chugging along at a healthy midteen growth rate, the up-and-coming markets in the Internet and communications sectors are hotter than ever. "We are still in the first half of a major up cycle," she said. A key predictor of the overall semiconductor market is the memory segment, whose health depends almost entirely upon the supply-demand equation. David Parker, manager of investor relations at Micron Technology Inc., said that despite all the additional capacity coming online, the DRAM market is on the verge of a shortage. With memory demand this year growing at 75 percent or greater, his company is bracing for a slight shortage this quarter, increasing next quarter for the holiday season and continuing at least through next year. That means DRAM prices are firming, and even rising, to $8 for a 64-Mbit chip from Micron. Shortage predicted Jim Handy, memory analyst for market research firm Dataquest Inc., predicted that the DRAM shortage could last through the end of 2002, and he did not find Salomon Smith Barney analyst Joseph`s argument compelling. "We are just at the start of the memory up cycle," Handy said. Billat said that even though the chip companies are building a host of new fabs, they are keeping a careful eye on the overall market. Intel Corp. is one of several companies committed to building a 300-mm site, but others, such as Micron, are holding back, partly to avoid overbuilding, she said. Other factors are also keeping the market in check, especially the backlog in lithography tools. Billat said the average delay to receive 248-nanometer lithography systems exceeds a year, and without more lithography gear it is impossible to set up more production lines. "If the chip companies could get all the litho tools they wanted, then we would probably end up with a huge oversupply," she said. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Gleich folgt noch ein interessanter Artikel zu Flash - Memorys. Nach dem Schlachtfest von gestern ist mir gar nicht so wohl. Ich bleibe aber für die Zukunft optimistisch. Für Neueinsteiger würde ich empfehlen mal die Charts von ATML, SSTI und SNDK genau zu beobachten und bei einer Trendumkehr einzusteigen. Ich wünsche Euch alles Gute. Erbse1. |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Silicon Storage (2) Flash - Memory Speicher |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Erbse1 (28.07.00 06:36:20) |
| Beitrag: | 13 von 140 (ID:1430576) |
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