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Der folgende Kommentar unseres schon liebgewordenen Freundes Efi Landau (oder ist es eine Freundin?) ist heute bestimmt nur für Liebhaber wie mich interessant - aber er beschreibt das verzwickte Problem so treffend und köstlich, daß ich ihn nicht vorenthalten will.

Thursday , Sep 28, 2000 Sun-Thu at 18:00 (GMT+3)
Communications Features

Who Will Cut the Gordian Knot?
By Efi Landau

There is no doubt that the current communications mess in the State of Israel is unprecedented. Let us list the actors and describe who is lining up against whom in this game.


1)Bezeq against the cable companies. This is the most likely scenario. They are, after all, supposed to compete with each other.

2)Bezeq against Anti-Trust Authority director-general David Tadmor, who supports unbundling (use of a monopoly`s infrastructure by its competitors) for ADSL high-speed Internet services and granting a temporary communications license to the cable companies.

3)Bezeq against Attorney General Elyakim Rubinstein and his deputy, Davida Lachman-Messer, who wish to promote competition before Bezeq`s privatization, thereby weakening the company.

4)Bezeq united with Rubinstein and Lachman-Messer in opposing a temporary communication license for the cable companies and requiring the cable companies to unbundle.

5)Bezeq against the Ministry of Communications, which wishes to make unbundling a condition for granting an ADSL license.

6)Bezeq against the expected merger of Cellcom and Ofek into a group in order to compete against Bezeq in the local market.

7)Bezeq against Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who wished to grant the cable companies a temporary communications license.

8)A united front of Bezeq and the cable companies opposing the merger of Cellcom and Ofek.

9)The cable companies against Bezeq (naturally!).

10)The cable companies against Tadmor in the struggle to extend the now-expired ICP arrangement.

11)The cable companies allied with Tadmor, who supports granting them a temporary communications license.

12)The cable companies against Rubinstein and Lachman-Messer.

13)The cable companies against the Ministry of Finance.

14)The cable companies against the Ministry of Communications, which wishes to impose unbundling.

15)Cellcom and Eurocom against the PM, the Ministry of Communications, and Tadmor, who all favor a temporary communications license for the cable companies.

16)Cellcom and Eurocom allied with the Ministry of Communications, which wishes to impose unbundling on Bezeq.

17)Cellcom and Eurocom against the Ministry of Communications, which is postponing the LMDS tender and creating a duopoly between Bezeq and the cable companies by delaying the entry of new competitors.

18)Bezeq against the "judiciary".

19)A press campaign against "judicial tyranny".

20)The Israel Bar Association, supporting the Attorney General.

Ist das nicht köstlich - aber ich fürchte, er hat recht!


For some reason, it does not appear that competition will emerge from all this. Will the High Court of Justice (HCJ) provide the best show in town? If so, which issue will it address? Will it hear the cable companies` demands for a temporary license, or those of Eurocom and Cellcom either opposing that license or demanding a similar temporary status? Or will the judicial issue be Bezeq`s ADSL license without unbundling?

Unlike larger-than-life TV series, where we are always told what will happen next week, the only thing that can be stated with certainty is that next week there will be a mess. Perhaps it will be a different mess than the current one, but still a mess. What we won`t get will be high-speed Internet.

Bezeq

You could say that Bezeq is longing to be forced to provide high-speed Internet, while permitting its competitors to use its infrastructure. The Ministry of Communications, however, justly opposes giving Bezeq exclusivity in high-speed Internet, even for a short period, citing the company`s supposed unwillingness to provide its competitors with access to its infrastructure.

Instead of consenting to unbundling, which will eventually be forced on it, thereby forcing the Ministry of Communications to make a decision, Bezeq is defending its last rickety rampart, which can be easily penetrated, giving the Ministry of Communications the ideal excuse for not approving the company`s high-speed Internet license.

Let there be no mistake. A reasonable assumption is that even if Bezeq accepts unbundling, it will not receive high-speed Internet approval; the Ministry of Communications, however, will then be forced to admit the truth - it cannot grant Bezeq high-speed Internet without the cable companies, and vice-versa. The great pressure applied on the Attorney General to approve a temporary communications license by the cable companies and the Ministry of Communications is aimed at appeasing both the cable companies` shareholders and Bezeq.

The cable companies

History repeats itself. Over the entire length of the regulatory dispute of recent years, the cable companies took blow after blow. Their situation worsened, among other reasons because when it was possible to reach agreements under better conditions, they rejected the offers, ultimately accepting compromises under worse conditions.
Ich sagte es gestern in meinen Worten: Wer nicht nimmt zur rechten Zeit...

The same script is being read now. The offer of a temporary license until the expiration of their franchise, which will enable high-speed Internet services to be provided, is highly advantageous to the cable companies. As usual, however, they want it under their conditions, which they imagine they can dictate. When legal issues of principle are raised, which require solution before the license is granted, they attack the messenger - the Attorney General - who may be willing to allow them a concession in one area, but will not give them everything they want. The cable companies, like Bezeq, will ultimately have to accept the unbundling obligation. It is better for them to consent now, rather than be forced to do so at a later stage, at much higher prices.

Cellcom, Eurocom, and Barak

The chief barrier to a high-speed Internet arrangement lies in these companies; it is reasonable to assume that an initiative to halt such an arrangement will originate with them. The Ministry of Communications, the Anti-Trust Authority director-general, Minister of Communications Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, and Prime Minister Ehud Barak have decided that the dream of free competition will be realized in the Jewish state through provision of high-speed Internet services by Bezeq and the cable companies. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The fact that this attitude prevails among most communications market leaders is evidence that the monopolies, Bezeq and the cable companies, have succeeded in taking over the market even before competition has gotten started. All those striving today for high-speed Internet in a market of two monopolistic competitors, a duopoly, are subverting competition. A normal duopoly, in which the market is controlled by two companies, is sometimes worse than a monopoly.

Of all the previous and current mistakes on the road to opening the market to competition, the fact that the Ministry of Communications has not applied its full force towards the entry of new companies into the market by means of wireless access technologies is the biggest. As far as currently known, publication of the LMDS tenders is expected next week. Experience to date indicates that even if the Ministry of Communications commits itself to a timetable, it usually does not meet it.

If the tenders, which were originally to have been published over a year ago, are published next week, they must include a definite date for completion of the entire process and granting of the communications licenses to the new companies. Until that time, Ofek`s idea of a temporary license, similar to that of the cable companies, sounds reasonable. In that way, the high-speed Internet market may have a chance to become a truly competitive market.

Published by Israel`s Business Arena on September 28, 2000

****

Was er nicht sagt: Das sind die Probleme eines überregulierten Marktes. Hätte man nicht so viele Regularien, Lizenzvoraussetzungen und Behörden, die über alles wachen, so hätte man diese ganzen Probleme nicht. Wenn Eltern sich einbilden, sie könnten per Eingriff und Kontrolle gerechte Verhältnisse im alltäglichen Umgang ihrer 5 Kinder miteinander schaffen - das muß scheitern. Das kann sich nur selbst regulieren.

Aber nun müssen sie da durch, die Israelis.

Gruß, Jan Philip

P.S. Ich bin nicht der Meinung, daß dieses alles für den Kurs der MBX-Aktie noch relevant ist. Wie gesagt, eine Liebhaberei.
 
aus der Diskussion: Met@box - der Israeldeal
Autor (Datum des Eintrages): Janphil  (28.09.00 18:48:26)
Beitrag: 105 von 315 (ID:1948266)
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