Aus dem TMF-Board. Warum ein Sttlement mit Samsung nächste Woche wahrscheinlich ist.
Author: nukejohn
Number: of 120435
Subject: Samsung Settlement is a Win-Win!! Date: 1/13/06 7:27 AM
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A settlement for Samsung will be a win-win situation for both Samsung and Rambus....no matter what the royalty rate Samsung gets. Here`s why (from Samsung`s own website).
http://www.samsung.com/Products/Semiconductor/XDR_RDRAM/
Samsung is an XDR (and RDRAM) licensee and they are still paying royalties on these. XDR/XDR2 should be the industry standard memory right now because it is so much faster than DDR 2/3 or GDDR2 or GDDR3/4...and on top of that it should be cheaper to manufacture, so the MM`s should get bigger margins. The only reason (IMHO) that XDR is not the standard right now is that companies like Intel, AMD, nVidea, ATI, saw what happened with the RDRAM price fixing cartel in 2000-2001 and are afraid it will happen again. Currently we have Samsung, Elpida, and Toshiba licensed for XDR (and IFX is quasi-licensed)...and by all rights the industry should be using the faster cheaper memory. All it takes is a full committment from Samsung and the whole industry could change over to XDR, starting with the graphics card companies (nVidia and ATI). When Intel and AMD see that the supply is available, stable, and competitive with DDR2/3 and that prices are no longer being controlled by a DRAM memory cartel, then the whole market could change over almost overnight (18 months in the semi industry is overnight). This would leave companies like Micron and Hynix (who don`t have an XDR license) out in the cold. But both short term and long term, it is a win-win for Samsung, as they gain market share and make better margins. It`s almost a no-brainer, and it doesn`t matter what DDR royalty rate Samsung agrees to, because the rest of industry (except IFX) will be paying the same or more. I`m sure Samsung has a MFN clause on XDR in their existing contract...so they will have competitive cost advantage on the rest of the industry on XDR, both in royalties and in labor and manufacturing.
To me this is a no brainer...and a reason that I think it is highly possible we see a settlement from Samsung on or before Jan. 19th.
Credit for this post should also go to Stk_Hawk, because we have discussed this scenario ad infinitem, and he has helped shape my thinking on this. However, he may or may not agree with everything in this post, as he hasn`t seen it yet.
JMHO,
NJ
Disclosure: Long Rambus stock, calls, and leaps
Ich möchte jedenfalls nicht übers lange Wochenende ohne Rambus sein.
