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[posting]21677636[/posting]Ausser dem beruechtigten Kontraindikator und Kaffesatzleser Krugman haetten wir da noch ein paar Fakten: Die hier standen gestern in der NYT: May 19, 2006 Leading Indicators Reinforce Idea That Growth Is Slowing By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS WASHINGTON, May 18 (AP) — An important gauge of the nation's future economic activity dipped in April, once again suggesting slower growth in the months ahead. The Conference Board, a private research group, reported Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators fell by 0.1 percentage point, to 138.9, last month. Economists were predicting a small rise. In March the index climbed by 0.4 percentage point, to 139. The index predicts economic activity three to six months in the future. Economists said the decline reinforced the Federal Reserve's forecast that economic growth, which has been brisk, would most likely moderate to a more sustainable pace in the coming months. In the first quarter of this year, the economy grew at a 4.8 percent pace, the fastest in two and a half years. Analysts expect growth will slow to a pace of 3 percent to 3.5 percent in the second and third quarters. Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America Investment Strategies Group, said: "The index is flashing not a recession but a slowing in growth, which is a welcome sign. Unfortunately, we are not seeing an accompanying moderation in inflation yet." The decline in the index comes as the housing market is slowing, energy prices are high and consumer confidence is sagging. April's index reading was weighed down by, among other things, a drop in building permits, a dip in consumer expectations and a rise in claims for jobless benefits. The Labor Department said the number of people signing up for jobless benefits rose sharply last week, mainly because of the lingering effects of a partial government shutdown in Puerto Rico, which has now been resolved. New applications filed for unemployment insurance shot up by a seasonally adjusted 42,000, to 367,000, for the week ended May 13. That was the highest level of claims since early in October. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week for the 16th time in two years, an effort to keep inflation from accelerating. Fed policy makers left future rate decisions open as they grapple with whether the economy is more likely to slow or high energy costs are more likely to ignite price and wage rises. After the Labor Department reported Wednesday that consumer prices increased by 0.6 percent in April, many economists said the odds were now increasing that the Fed would bump up rates again at its next meeting on June 28 and 29. |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Finanzpolitik: Die USA als Warnung? |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | PresAbeL (19.05.06 23:57:12) |
| Beitrag: | 1,048 von 1,061 (ID:21681201) |
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