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als archiv- gedacht ratings: socgen -?-66Equinet Institutional -BUY-60 WestLB -BUY- 62,50 MIDAS Research -BUY- 60 dutton - buy - 56 LB Baden-Württemberg- BUY- 53 DZ-Bank- Schwacher Kauf - 50 pacconsec.de -accumulate - ??? [stand 46,08] Credit Suisse -underperform- 40 AC Research -akkumulieren -? neuer analyst: Veröffentlicht in Bloomberg MorphoSys on www.sgresearch.socgen.com �� Fact/Impact We had a very constructive roadshow with the company in Paris yesterday, fully comforting us in our view and confirming its potential of development on a segment, which has seen a strong wave of consolidation recently (Amgen/Abgenix, AstraZeneca/CAT). Following the extension of the deal with Novartis announced a few days ago, we did know that the company would revise up its guidance at the occasion of the next H1 results. We have a more precise view on it, understanding that both topline and bottom-line will be increased (from respectively €50m and €1m). While there is obviously no specific figure given by the management at this stage, the upgrade will be significant (somewhere between 10 and 20% on the revenues goal?). Furthermore, we had the feeling that one big pharma, currently not a partner of MorphoSys and relatively late on the large molecule ground, was heating up on the topic and could lead to a deal in the next few months (even if this is always hardly predictable). Last but not least, we feel more confident than ever that new partnered projects will enter clinical development in a relatively short period of time, providing the market with some very positive news flow. More generally, we are strongly convinced that fully human monoclonal antibody field is definitely not a commodity, with pricing pretty stable year after year. �� 12m fair value Our DCF model yields a fair value of €66, using a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetuity growth rate of 3.5%. �� Next event analysis MorphoSys will publish its H1 results on 28 July 2006. |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Morphosys - alles bereits eskomptiert ! ;) |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Trading4aLiving (06.07.06 14:34:06) |
| Beitrag: | 19 von 70 (ID:22434000) |
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