moooorgen kinder wiiirds waaas geben
lol, der typ hier hat auch schon erkannt dass aktien eigentlich nur steigen können, egal was für zahlen morgen kommen. fazit: stocks will either rise or they will gain 
- oder meinte er fall statt rise ... ... wir werdens sehen. If the report is much weaker than expected, bonds are likely to rally, while stocks, the dollar and commodities are likely to rise, he said.
On the other hand, if the report is stronger-than-expected, bonds could sell off and stocks could gain, as long as the report is not so strong that talk is revived about further rate hikes from the Fed, Crescenzi said.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Healthy payroll growth expected for November
Jobless rate likely will rise to 4.5%, economists say
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:46 PM ET Dec 7, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. job growth probably picked up slightly in November, economists said, looking ahead to the Labor Department's report on Friday.
Policymakers, economists and investors will be watching the payrolls report carefully for signs of a weaker economy to go along with other symptoms of slower growth.
The report is unlikely to show any broad economic slowdown, that there's little contagion from the collapsing housing sector and the slumping auto industry, economists said. They expect nonfarm payrolls grew by 110,000, compared with 92,000 in October and an average of 135,000 over the past six months. See Economic Calendar.
The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 4.5% from a cyclical low of 4.4%.
"However, we would not read this as a signal of a deteriorating labor market as the unemployment rate can be volatile month-to-month, and the trend in the rate is still downward over the last several months," wrote John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns, in a weekly note to clients.
Any signs of a significantly weaker labor market could nudge the Federal Reserve closer to cutting interest rates, as investors now expect in March or May.
"The second straight month of sub-par job gains will be another small step towards Fed easing in 2007," wrote Avery Shenfeld, an economist for CIBC World Markets, in a weekly note to clients.
The ADP employment index suggested that payrolls may have grown by about 170,000 in November, leading some economists to boost their forecasts.
But the ADP report had no impact on the payrolls options market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which expects growth of about 87,000, said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co.
"Clearly, the market is leaning on the side of weakness," Crescenzi wrote in an email. If the report is much weaker than expected, bonds are likely to rally, while stocks, the dollar and commodities are likely to rise, he said.
On the other hand, if the report is stronger-than-expected, bonds could sell off and stocks could gain, as long as the report is not so strong that talk is revived about further rate hikes from the Fed, Crescenzi said.
The data released in the past week have been "consistent with moderate growth in employment," wrote Goldman Sachs economists in an email on Thursday.
At the high end are forecasters such as Brian Jones of Citigroup Global Markets, who sees payroll gains of about 140,000 along with an upward revision to October to about 150,000. Jones is counting on hiring in the services and fewer layoffs in construction and manufacturing.
"Labor market conditions remain tight," said Dean Maki, economist for Barclays Capital, in his weekly research note. He does expect the jobless rate to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%, as October's two-tenths drop was "overdone."
"A soft economy, particularly in the key cyclical industries, has to, at some point, start to take its toll on hiring," Shenfeld said. Shenfeld argued that construction layoffs should accelerate as builders complete the homes started during the more optimistic summer months.
Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3%, compared with 0.4% in October, which would push the year-over-year gain to a cyclical high of 4.2%, noted Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Bros.
Despite the rosier news on unit labor costs reported earlier this week, the Fed remains on guard against wage-push inflation stemming from a tight labor market. Even a 0.2% rise in hourly earnings would push the year-over-year increase to 4.1%, the highest since 2001.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/healthy-payroll-growth…