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*DJ Dec FOMC Minutes: Officials Saw More Downside Econ Risks

01/03/2007
Dow Jones News Services
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01-03-07 1400ET

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*DJ FOMC: Housing Continued To Weigh 'Heavily' On Economy



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01-03-07 1400ET

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*DJ FOMC: Housing Hasn't Spilled Over 'Significantly'



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*DJ FOMC: Business Spending Decelerated But Should Be Solid



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01-03-07 1400ET

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*DJ FOMC: Employment Should Slow 'Over Next Quarter Or So'



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*DJ FOMC: GDP Growth May Be 'Somewhat Uneven' In Coming Qtrs



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*DJ FOMC: Core Inflation Improved 'Modestly' But Still Risk



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*DJ FOMC: All Members Saw Inflation As Primary Risk



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*DJ FOMC: 1 Member Open To Possibility Of Rate Cut Or Hike



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DJ Dec FOMC Minutes: Officials Saw More Downside Econ Risks


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. Federal Reserve officials last month saw greater downside economic risks to the economy, citing a housing sector that weighed "heavily" on activity as well as weaker business investment, according to the minutes of the Dec. 12 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released Wednesday.

"Several members judged that the subdued tone of some incoming indicators meant that the downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased a little and become a bit more broadly based than previously thought," the minutes stated, suggesting that officials are growing more balanced in their economic and inflation assessment.

Still, officials agreed last month that inflation remained the dominant concern and that more policy tightening was possible.

However, in a departure from previous statements and a sign of some disagreement within the Fed, one member wanted the Fed to leave open the possibility of either a rate cut or a rate increase, depending on the outlook for growth and inflation, the minutes showed.


The Fed last month held the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% for a fourth straight meeting, though it maintained a bias toward higher rates should inflation persist.

Yet financial markets expect the Fed's next move to be a rate cut, not an increase, despite the Fed's official tightening bias. That assessment may be further bolstered by the Fed's recognition of the slowing economy.

Inflation pressures have decelerated in recent months, although underlying inflation measured by both the core personal consumption expenditures price index and the core consumer price index remain above the Fed's understood 1% to 2% comfort zone.

Though much of the December policy statement mirrored October's, the Fed last month added the qualifier "substantial" to its assessment that the housing market is "cooling," suggesting that it saw greater downside risks to that sector. Officials also added a reference to recent "mixed" economic indicators, though they repeated their assertion that the economy would grow at a "moderate" pace.

According to the December minutes, members wanted to convey that growth should be moderate while "also recognizing the possibility that measured (gross domestic product) growth could be somewhat uneven in coming quarters."

Officials downgraded their assessment of business investment, noting that it "appeared to have decelerated recently." In the previous minutes, the Fed said investment appeared to be "holding up well." Still, officials said in the December minutes that business spending should expand "at a solid pace."

Officials also noted that while employment had posted "solid gains" in recent quarters, job growth "would probably slow over the next quarter or so" in lagged response to softer activity.

Regarding price pressures, Fed officials said core inflation "had improved modestly." However, "nearly all participants viewed core inflation as uncomfortably high and stressed the importance of further moderation," the FOMC stated, generally repeating what it said in October.

While inflation should "edge lower," officials "stressed there was considerable uncertainty as to the probable pace and extent of the moderation in core inflation and that the risks around this desired downward path remained to the upside."
 
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