Societe Generale Equity Research Biotechnology (Germany) PREVIEW MORPHOSYS Full-year results Any risk on 2007 guidance? We do not think so Calendar MorphoSys will release its FY2006 results next week, on at 7.30am CET on 28 Feb next week. The analyst and press conference will be held from 10.30am CET, at which the company will give its guidance FY2007. Watch out for We are relatively confident vis-à-vis FY06 results. Guidance of €52m for revenues (upgraded from €50m in July) will be met (we expect €52.4m). MorphoSys will easily beat EBIT guidance of €6m (given in July) – we actually expect €9.3m. Similarly, we think that net income guidance of €5m (upgraded from €1m in July) will be more than achieved – we estimate €7.2m. More importantly, we will focus our attention on FY07 guidance. Some brokers have recently speculated on possible disappointing figures on this side. We know that the company will enter into 2007 in an R&D ramp-up trend for its internal projects (MOR103 should notably enter phase 1 in H2 07), although we do not consider that this will compromise its 2007 prospects. Indeed, we even believe that market estimates are conservative: Revenues 07 - SGe €66m vs. cons. €60m, EBIT 07 – SGe €13.1m vs. cons. €9.3m, net income 07 – SGe €9.9m vs. cons. €8.0m. Our own figures are based upon stable margins (around 52%) in therapeutic antibodies and near breakeven for research antibodies, which we think is not aggressive at all. Potential market reaction MorphoSys has historically been conservative (notably in 2006, where initial guidance disappointed). However, in our view, the company has a lot of leeway to surprise the market favourably. Despite its recent rally, we think the stock should have deserved better performance over 12 months. This may be the time for it to catch up. |
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aus der Diskussion: | Morphosys - alles bereits eskomptiert ! ;) |
Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Trading4aLiving (23.02.07 17:42:21) |
Beitrag: | 50 von 70 (ID:27929190) |
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