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Societe Generale
Equity Research

Biotechnology (Germany) PREVIEW
MORPHOSYS
Full-year results Any risk on 2007 guidance? We do not think so

�� Calendar MorphoSys will release its FY2006 results next week, on at 7.30am CET on
28 Feb next week. The analyst and press conference will be held from 10.30am CET, at
which the company will give its guidance FY2007.
�� Watch out for We are relatively confident vis-à-vis FY06 results. Guidance of €52m for
revenues (upgraded from €50m in July) will be met (we expect €52.4m). MorphoSys will
easily beat EBIT guidance of €6m (given in July) – we actually expect €9.3m. Similarly,
we think that net income guidance of €5m (upgraded from €1m in July) will be more than
achieved – we estimate €7.2m. More importantly, we will focus our attention on FY07
guidance. Some brokers have recently speculated on possible disappointing figures on
this side. We know that the company will enter into 2007 in an R&D ramp-up trend for its
internal projects (MOR103 should notably enter phase 1 in H2 07), although we do not
consider that this will compromise its 2007 prospects. Indeed, we even believe that
market estimates are conservative: Revenues 07 - SGe €66m vs. cons. €60m, EBIT 07 –
SGe €13.1m vs. cons. €9.3m, net income 07 – SGe €9.9m vs. cons. €8.0m. Our own
figures are based upon stable margins (around 52%) in therapeutic antibodies and near
breakeven for research antibodies, which we think is not aggressive at all.
�� Potential market reaction MorphoSys has historically been conservative (notably in
2006, where initial guidance disappointed). However, in our view, the company has a lot
of leeway to surprise the market favourably. Despite its recent rally, we think the stock
should have deserved better performance over 12 months. This may be the time for it to
catch up.
 
aus der Diskussion: Morphosys - alles bereits eskomptiert ! ;)
Autor (Datum des Eintrages): Trading4aLiving  (23.02.07 17:42:21)
Beitrag: 50 von 70 (ID:27929190)
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