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WestLB erhöht Kursziel für Morphosys auf 65 (63,30) Euro Share price reaction overdone, mid-term prospects intact After MorphoSys reported FY 2006 results and gave an outlook for FY 2007, we have adjusted our model. Whereas we lowered our estimates for the therapeutic antibody division to reflect the FY 2006 results and the new FY 2007 guidance, we increased our estimates for the AbD division to reflect the excellent outlook given for this division. Overall, we have lowered our revenue and EBIT estimates going forward. However, we forecast a 59% increase in EBIT yoy for FY 2007 based on the lower base for FY 2006. We believe mid-term prospects remain intact and even increase our price target from €63.3 to €65 as we now moved our DCF model one year forward. We reiterate our Buy rating. Therapeutic antibody division. The therapeutic antibody division performed strongly in FY 2006 with revenues up by 19% yoy an increase in EBIT margin from 42% in FY 2005 to 48% in FY 2006. Positively for FY 2007, MorphoSys guided for new IND filings for HuCAL-based antibodies at partners of between 1-3. We would have only expected a guidance of between 0-3. Furthermore, the company expects that the number of antibody programs would increase from 43 to 50 and from 2008 to 2011 by another 40. On its own antibody programs, MorphoSys said that both MOR103 and MOR202 would be on track. The company said that it would double its investments into own programs from €3m in FY 2006 to around €6m in FY 2007. AbD division. Although we did not forecast such a high net loss for FY 2006 in this division, we are encouraged by the strong performance on the revenue side. Furthermore, the company was very convincing in saying that it would target an increase in revenues of more than 20% and an EBIT margin of 5-10% for FY 2007. We were only looking for an increase in revenues of 17% and a break even on the EBIT line for FY 2007. Model changes. Based on company guidance and the observed growth rate for FY 2006 in the therapeutic antibody division, we lowered our forecasts between 2007 and 2011 by between 8-9%. However, due to the excellent outlook for the AbD segment, we increased our forecast from 2007 to 2011 by between 6 and 11%. Overall, we lower our total revenue forecast by between 3 and 4% from 2007 to 2011. Given the lower basis for FY 2006 and our adjustments made to revenues, we lowered our EBIT forecast going forward by between 8-12%. Still a Buy. Although we lowered our estimates going forward, our fair value derived from our DCF model has even increased from €61.6 to €63.3 as we now moved our model one year forward. Including the fair value of €1.7/share we calculated for the Novartis option, we arrive at a new fair value of €65/share. We believe that the company has excellent mid-term growth prospects and still regard the company as a take over target. Furthermore, our new estimates imply an EBIT growth of 59% yoy for FY 2007.We therefore reiterate our Buy rating and set a new target price at €65. €m 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR Therapeutic alliance revenues old 45,6 56,5 68,9 83,1 98,0 21 Therapeutic alliance revenues new 41,9 51,2 62,4 76,1 89,1 21 Variance (%) -8 -9 -9 -8 -9 Antibodies Direct revenues, old 20,9 24,3 28,4 33,3 38,2 16 Antibodies Direct revenues, new 22,1 26,4 31,3 37,0 42,5 18 Variance (%) 6 9 10 11 11 Total revenues old 66,4 80,8 97,3 116,3 136,3 20 Total revenues new 64,0 77,5 93,7 113,1 131,6 20 Variance (%) -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 EBIT,old 11,1 17,6 27,7 33,7 39,6 37 EBIT, new 9,8 15,8 25,2 31,0 36,0 38 Variance (%) -12 -10 -9 -8 -9 Net income old 10,5 16,2 25,1 22,3 26,2 26 Net income new 9,4 14,6 22,9 20,6 23,9 26 Variance (%) -11 -10 -8 -8 n.a. EPS diluted old 1,57 2,40 3,70 3,27 3,80 25 EPS diluted new 1,41 2,22 3,46 3,09 3,55 26 Variance (%) -10 -8 -6 -5 -7 |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Morphosys - alles bereits eskomptiert ! ;) |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Trading4aLiving (01.03.07 12:18:46) |
| Beitrag: | 52 von 70 (ID:28044326) |
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