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.......gestern veröffentlichte Studie aus U.S.A Digital Set-Top Box Market Worth $54Bil By 2004 - Study By: Michael Bartlett Date: 01/31/01 Location: NORTH ADAMS, MASSACHUSETTS, U.S.A. Thanks to quantum leaps in technology that have lowered prices and increased capabilities, the worldwide digital set-top box market will explode in the next three years, according to a study released today. The study, conducted by market research firm MindBranch Inc. and Multimedia Research Group Inc. (MRG), predicts that by 2004, combined sales of set-top boxes and related digital services such as electronic program guides, video-on-demand, interactive TV and enhanced TV will reach $54 billion. The annual sales of set-top boxes will increase from approximately $4 billion worldwide in 2000 to $5.5 billion in 2001 and $11.5 billion in 2004, the study said. "It is a new kind of market, and quite unlike the PC market," said Gary Schultz, analyst with MRG. "Vendors are growing this market globally. There are more TVs out there than PCs. The TV set is ubiquitous. Set-top boxes can sit on any TV, so potential growth is faster." Schultz said advances in technology is one of the key forces driving the market. "Advanced services are available in the home at a cost much less than a year ago, and this is due to technology," he said. "MRG has been tracking the set-top box market since 1994. There have been increases of up to 200 times in processing power and storage in the past eight years. When we did our first report on set-top boxes in 1995, the cost of VOD was 10 times too high. With the huge jumps in capability, services like Interactive TV, and specialized video are one-tenth the cost of 1995. This in turn makes it possible for satellite carriers to get a good return on investment." The average satellite carrier or cable operator can expect to make money after 16 months in the present market, much less time than it took few years ago, according to Schultz. He said cable operators have been steadily improving their infrastructure over the last couple of years, and the costs of infrastructure have gone down worldwide. "Two other factors are driving the market in the near term," he said. "The first is IP-based media distribution, also known as streaming media. Until recently, streaming media has meant delivery to the PC. Now, distributors are able to stream up to 3 megabits to a TV. That is standard distribution. This will open up a whole new realm." Schultz said the second near-term factor is the growth of personal video recorders (PVRs). "There are huge amounts of research and development on these right now. Some will be integrated into set-top boxes, some will stand alone like TiVo. PVRs are doubling capacity every 12 months, so we will see PVRs able to record up to 120 hours later this year," he predicted. More than 143 million set-top boxes will be installed by 2004, Schultz said. Of these, 114 million will be digital satellite set-tops. "Digital satellite use will tear out of here. It is screaming right now, and the cable industry is moving too slow," he said. "Digital satellite is already big in Europe, and the industry is targeting the US, Japan, and some other markets like Latin America and South Africa. The satellite industry has finally arranged to include local stations, which stopped many people from adopting it." He added that the success of satellites may accelerate improvements by digital cable operators. An additional factor driving the adoption of set-top boxes is the nature of the market, said Schultz. He said unlike the PC business, there is no single dominant operating system. "The industry has become standardized and globalized without government intervention. It is much more like the cell phone market than computers in that the markets have driven standardization," he said. Schultz said he expects the next generation of STBs to include a built-in PVR and have increasing video on demand (VOD) and Web capability. "VOD is a hot topic right now, especially … time-shifted VOD," he explained. "The consumer orders a movie four to 12 hours in advance, and it downloads overnight into his or her PVR to be viewed whenever the consumer wants." More information on Mind Branch is available on the Web at http://www.mindbranch.com . MRG is also online at http://www.mrgco.com . Reported by Newsbytes.com, http://www.newsbytes.com . 16:52 CST (20010131/Press Contact: Dina Amento for Mind Branch, 212-213-9060 /WIRES ONLINE, BUSINESS/DIGITALTV/PHOTO) |
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| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | flyfish (01.02.01 14:37:08) |
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