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Each item in the Interactive TV statistical forecast list below has a three-letter parentheical at the end of the item where the three letters translate into one of the following attributed sources:

IDC = International Data Corp.
ICO = Inteco Corporation
INT = Intel Corporation
IQS = IntelliQuest Research
JPA = Jon Peddie Associates
JUP = Jupiter Communications
SRI = SRI Consulting
MDX = Media Metrix
STA = Strategy Analytics
FSV = Find/SVP
MCS = Microsoft (dtv)
WGT = WorldGate
MOT = Motorola
CEM = Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association
WMS = Wedbush Morgan Securities
DQS = Dataquest
SHO = Showtime Networks
ATV = Advanced Television Enhancement Forum
C&O = Probable Tomorrows, consensus delphi findings

(also see Global Information Inc.)

YEAR 1997

3 million information appliances (IDC)
40% of Home PC households watch TV and use PC simultaneously (MDX)
98% of U.S. households (99 million homes) have TVs while 40% (40.4 million homes) have PCs (MCS)

YEAR 1998

95% of households with digital TV choose to receive digital TV via direct-to-home [DTH] satellite service (STA)
5% of households with digital TV choose to receive digital TV via their cable operator (STA)
5.9 million worldwide set-top boxes, internet game consoles, handheld devices (IDC)
3 million set-top boxes & handheld devices (IDC)
1.4 million set-top boxes (IDC)
(Although set-top boxes totaled 1.4 million units, in comparison, PC shipments totaled 31.5 million units or 96% share of internet access market.)
848,000 internet game devices (IDC)
1% of households have activated net TVs (IDC)
54% of households have 3+ televisions (IDC)
48% of households have a PC (DQS)
12% of households have 2+ PCs (IDC)
12% of households access the internet on a daily basis (IDC)
21% of households have internet access (IDC)
43% of households use email regularly at home, work, or school (IDC)
30% of households with televisions (99.7 of households surveyed) do not subscribe to cable TV (IDC)
4% of households plan to purchase full PC-TV sets (IDC)
(IDC VP of consumer devices research Sean Kaldor: "[Consumers] don`t want a full PC and a full TV slammed together. I don`t think convergence means putting one inside the other, I think it means one product taking the best of another. So maybe Web access is all you need on your TV and you don`t need all the features a PC offers. A TV-centric device tends to be more favored than anything else. TV is more visually compelling, a more exciting set of deliverables.")
26% of households were familiar with net TV set-top boxes such as WebTV (IDC)
7% of households were planning to buy a net TV set-top box in 1999 (IDC)
39% of respondents willing to use a simple remote control when dealing with Interactive TV (JUP)
26% of respondents would do nothing to obtain new Interactive TV features (JUP)
10% of respondents would "browse the Web" or "click on TV-Web links" (JUP)
18% of Internet users surfed on a PC and watched a TV set simultaneously at least once a week; 27% of these "telewebbers" were more likely to buy products online every three months compared to 17% of all Internet surfers (ICO)
57% of surveyed WorldGate viewers prefer receiving services on their TV (WGT)
(WorldGate VP of strategic programs Gerard Kunkel: "[TV] is a medium that everyone understands.")
$75 billion sales for overall consumer electronics (CEM)

YEAR 1999

110 million TV households in U.S. (nearly every home has a TV) (DQS)
79.4+ million adults (38% of U.S. population age 16 and older) are online (IQS)
18.8 million people plan to go online in the next year (IQS)
13.9 million worldwide net TV set-top boxes, game consoles, handheld devices (IDC)
8 million set-top boxes & handheld devices (IDC)
4.3 million set-top boxes (IDC)
37% of respondents prefer online supplemental content for news stories instead of online supplemental content for entertainment (JUP)
10% of respondents prefer getting more information while watching a sitcom or drama (JUP)
(Jupiter analyst Ross Rubin: "We believe most of the supplemental content that will develop around digital television will be informative in nature and utility driven." These findings run contrary to assumptions in the computer and TV industries that digital TV will represent a break-through in interactive entertainment.)
3Q 1999 first U.S. major test of ATVEF standard (ATV)
[Perhaps late August `99 or Sept. `99 which are in 3Q `99.]
18 million households (one in five households) were simultaneously watching TV and working, shopping, or entertaining themselves online; 5 million households have a PC and a TV in the same room (the others, presumedly mostly PC users at this time, may be running back and forth between rooms) (SHO)
(Showtime`s executive vice president of corporate strategy & communications Mark Greenberg: "The fact that one out of every five television households in America is watching television and engaging in online activity at the same time indicates that there is great potential to attract audiences to programming that combines both mediums.")
only 100,000 families will network their homes (network the home devices and appliances) by the end of 1999 (MOT)
(Motorola`s director of marketing & business development Sanjeev Verma said the market is still too immature for mass adoption. "We`re taking the first meaningful steps this year. It will explode next year." Envisioneering director Richard Doherty: "This kind of home networking, where you`ve got control of anything around the house using a keyboard, is best suited to the non-PC crowd.")
$80 billion sales for overall consumer electronics (CEM)

YEAR 2000

100 million adults (age 16 and older) online (IQS)
49% of households will be connected to the Net (WMS) (DQS) (INT)
42.7 households million own PCs (FSV)
40 million households own modems (FSV)
36.5 million households use the internet (FSV)
12.2 million households use internet appliances (FSV)
11.5 million set-top boxes (IDC)
worldwide PC sales to overtake TV sales (INT)
(Intel architecture business group predicts this....)
$1 billion home network market (WMS)

YEAR 2001
(optimistic JPA numbers if you don`t include China?)

103.8 million cable and set-top boxes (JPA)
104.5 million game consoles (JPA)
149.9 entertainment PCs (JPA)
31.1 million DVD players (JPA)
1.37 million Internet TV sets (JPA)
0.94 million digital TV sets (JPA)
growth of Internet usage will be strongest in emerging markets where annual growth rates of 38% are expected through 2001 and are fueled by heavy use of set-top boxes (IDC)
$5 billion market for low-cost network appliances and & cheap PC products (DQS)
(Arlen Communications president Gary Arlen 2-8-99 comment indicates significant impact of set-tops may not be until 2001: "Realistically it`s a couple of years before we see a significant impact. And it`s probably 2004 or 2005 before we see mass deployment." This comment is in line with the U.S. regulatory framework that is helping to influence the development of Interactive TV and set-tops.)

YEAR 2002

HDTV estimated to take off (IDC)
(IDC VP of consumer devices research Sean Kaldor: "When you see them in a sports bar, you know it`s close to taking off.")
61.3 million households are online (JUP)
55.7 million information appliances (IDC)
78% access the Internet through dial-up access providers (JUP)
60% of 12 million Internet TV viewers have telephone dial-up connections (SRI)
12% access the Internet through cable modems (JUP)
6% access the Internet through digital subscriber lines (JUP)
3% access the Internet through wireless connections (JUP)
11 million set-top boxes worldwide (IDC)
5 million digital cable TV set-top boxes in U.S. homes (JUP)
15 million internet game consoles (IDC)
22% of households have activated net TVs (IDC)
42 million Internet Appliances shipped (almost 50% of the internet access market) compared to 56 million PCs shipped (IDC)
15% of households (45-50 million U.S. households) have high-speed internet access (IDC)
$4 billion home network market (WMS)

YEAR 2003

$90 billion home video-on-demand market providing movies, TV shows, sports, and other forms of video-on-demand entertainment (C&O)

YEAR 2004-2005

Internet appliance shipments to surpass PC shipments (IDC)

YEAR 2005

1 billion internet users (IDC)
(Explosive growth due to set-top boxes, web-enabled TVs, web-enabled screen phones, web-enabled game consoles, web-enabled personal digital assistants, and other information devices.)
145 million households to receive satellite TV service (STA)
53 million set-top boxes sold (STA)
6% of U.S. households will own IDTV (Integrated Digital TV) sets (STA)
42% of digital televisions are outside Europe and North America (STA)
63% of U.S. households will own digital set-top boxes (STA)
$111.4 billion market of products incorporating PC, television, telephone, and interactive video transmission functions (C&O)

YEAR 2006

fewer than 20% of households will be equipped with digital TV (not necessarily Interactive TV) (JUP)
[Watch for digital TV converter boxes or converters built into interactive set-top boxes to be popular. -ruel]
$108.6 billion market of home entertainment center products combining interactive television, telephone, and computing capability (C&O)

YEAR 2008

80% of people in developed nations access an "information superhighway" (C&O)
60% of Internet TV viewers have cable TV connections (SRI)

YEAR 2009

Broadband networks (ISDN, ATM, fiber optics, etc.) connect the majority of homes and offices (C&O)
Electronic banking, including electronic cash, replaces paper, checks, and cash as the principal means of commerce (C&O)

YEAR 2013

$65.8 billion market in books where the majority of books and publications are published online (C&O)

YEAR 2018

$208.3 billion markertplace where half of all goods in the United States are sold through information services (
aus der Diskussion: www.metaboxusa.com
Autor (Datum des Eintrages): flyfish  (02.02.01 11:37:29)
Beitrag: 149 von 213 (ID:2827966)
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