|
China ist ja der potentielle Abnehmer von Mambare..... China raises nickel pig iron production this year due to nickel price hikes Shanghai. June 5. INTERFAX-CHINA - China's stainless steel makers have been increasing the use of nickel pig iron as an alternative to refined nickel as nickel prices have soared to all-time high levels, but increased nickel pig iron production is expected to cause nickel prices to fall in the second half of this year. Increased investment in nickel pig iron production resulted in the import of 3.78 million tons of laterite ore (containing 30,000 tons of nickel metal content) last year, a 6.8-fold increase from the previous year, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs. In the first quarter this year, China imported 2.2 million tons of laterite ore, mainly from the Philippines, Indonesia and New Caledonia. Imported laterite ore is processed in small scale blast furnaces or electric furnaces into nickel pig iron, which is of much lower nickel grade compared to ferronickel that averages above 30 percent nickel. To minimize costs, Chinese stainless steel makers began using nickel pig iron as an alternative to refined nickel last year. China produced nickel pig iron containing a total of nearly 30,000 tons of nickel metal last year. China is set to produce nickel pig iron containing a total of between 80,000 and 90,000 tons of nickel metal this year, up between 167 percent and 200 percent from last year. Nickel production is due to reach 210,000 tons with apparent consumption reaching 315,000 tons this year, up 22.2 percent from last year, according to a prediction last week in Hong Kong by Beijing Antaike Information Co. Ltd., a leading consultancy affiliated with the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA). Low grade nickel pig iron (nickel grade <=5 percent) is mainly used in the production of 200-series stainless steel, the most prevalent stainless steel in China. Some steel mills such as Shanghai Baosteel and Taiyuan Iron and Steel Group Co. Ltd. (TISCO) recently started production of 300-series stainless steel using nickel pig iron, Antaike analyst, Chen Shufang, said. China's nickel pig iron sells for an average of 15 percent less than refined nickel on the London Metal Exchange. China's nickel pig iron varies in grade from between 1 percent to 25 percent grade, depending on production facility. Jim Lennon, executive director of commodities and mining research with Macquarie Bank, forecasted last week in Hong Kong that the LME three-month nickel price would probably fall to $40,000 per ton in the second half of this year, due to China's increased nickel pig iron production since 2006 and possible domestic stainless steel oversupply in the second half of this year. He forecasted that China's laterite ore imports would climb to 10 million tons this year and contain 80,000 tons of nickel metal content, while Beijing Antaike predicted laterite ore imports would be between 8 million and 9 million tons this year. Chen from Antaike also predicted a nickel price fall in the second half of this year, and that the average LME three-month nickel price would remain at $42,000 per ton this year, due to increased nickel pig iron production in China, combined with a reduction in stainless steel production in some steel mills. "Some stainless steel mills in Europe and the United Sates have announced austenite steel production cuts for the third quarter this year, and I believe some Chinese steel mills will reduce nickel-contained stainless steel production in the second half of the year, if nickel prices continue to rise," Chen said. The LME three-month nickel price closed at $47,400 per ton Friday overnight, surging $1,400 from previous day's trade. Nickel pig iron producers There are currently over 30 nickel pig iron producers in China, located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hainan, Sichuan, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and Fujian provinces. Privately-owned Zhejiang Huaguang Smelting Group is China's largest nickel pig iron producer, capable of producing 1 million tons of nickel pig iron per annum, with nickel grades varying from 1 percent to 14 percent. Huaguang was also the first Chinese company to use nickel pig iron smelting technology. A senior Huaguang official, surnamed Yang, told Interfax yesterday of the company's success in producing high-grade (8.5 percent to 9 percent) nickel pig iron in blast furnaces this year. "Our major clients include Shanghai Baosteel, TISCO and Zhangjiagang POSCO, to which we supply 700,000 tons of nickel pig iron per annum," Yang said. In order to secure nickel ore supplies, the company has developed a nickel mine in Indonesia with total reserves of 120 million tons of grade 1.8 percent nickel, Yang said. Huaguang holds an 80 percent stake in the nickel mine project. The company's ore selecting plant in Indonesia will be operational in mid-2008. Sinosteel Group, a state-owned mineral resource product trader, plans to construct a 16,000-ton nickel pig iron plant in Tianjin City's Huanghuagang district, which is scheduled to start operation in 2009. Laterite ore for the project will be imported from Indonesia. Zhong Yongqi, an official from Sha'anxi Energy Metals and Minerals Resources Co. Ltd. (Sha'anxi EMMR), told Interfax: "Sha'anxi EMMR is a small-scale smelter and can produce 1,000 tons of 3 percent to 4 percent grade nickel pig iron per annum. However, we are not positive about future nickel prices, and predict there will be an oversupply of nickel next year." "Nickel pig iron is not likely to replace refined nickel for stainless steel production as current nickel pig iron production is relatively small scale, and is regarded as low-grade and unstable in stainless steel production. If nickel prices fall, small nickel pig iron producers will come under pressure from the high cost of imported nickel ore," Zhang added. The Chinese government is attempting to eliminate blast furnaces below 300 cubic meters in volume this year, and is accelerating steel industry restructuring. To prevent being included in this capacity elimination drive, many small-scale steel mills have shifted production to nickel pig iron, which is not yet included in the high energy-consuming and highly polluting category being phased out. Furthermore, some ferroalloy production lines due to be phased out have also shifted production to nickel pig iron, due to the high price of nickel pig iron. However, domestic nickel pig iron producers still face environmental challenges, as their facilities are still regarded as environmentally damaging, and the government is likely to eliminate nickel pig iron equipment in the near future as it accelerates ferroalloy industry restructuring. Since China itself faces shortage of nickel ore resources, the country has become more reliant on imports, which has increased nickel ore prices while decreasing nickel pig iron producers' profit margins. Nickel pig iron's market prospects Jim Lennon from Macquarie commented that nickel pig iron is not a long term and stable raw material for stainless steel production, due to its high price. Nickel pig iron production is only profitable if nickel prices are above $10 per pound ($24,000 per ton). The nickel ore delivery price to Chinese ports has increased on the back of domestic demand and a nickel price increase. On June 1, the delivery price of 1.5 percent grade nickel ore imported from the Philippines was RMB 1,400 ($183.22) per ton in Rizhao Port, and 1.7 percent grade nickel ore from Indonesia was RMB 1,700 ($ 222.49) per ton. Last year, the average price of imported 1.5 percent grade nickel ore from Indonesia was only $60 per ton. Zhang Mei, a researcher with the Ministry of Land and Resources of China, predicts that supply and demand will reach a balance by the end of this year, with nickel prices possibly falling in 2008. As for the role nickel pig iron will play in future stainless steel production, it will have a share of the market, but will also be dependent consumers. Stainless steel producers may or may not choose nickel pig iron to replace refined nickel, Zhang said. "The emergence of nickel pig iron last year was totally market driven. Nickel pig iron will not entirely replace refined nickel for stainless steel production, but the two raw materials will share the market, as long as there is high demand from stainless steel producers, and a refined nickel supply shortage. I was also told that in addition to the small mills, China's giant steelmaker Baosteel is also producing nickel pig iron," Jason Cooke, business development manager with Minara Resources Ltd., a leading nickel producer in Western Australia, said. "I'm wondering if the Chinese government will impose new policies in an attempt to phase out small blast furnaces for nickel pig iron production, as China is already phasing out small blast furnaces for steelmaking. However, i don't think this will happen for another two to three years," Cooke added. Although it has been said that nickel pig iron is not as user-friendly as ferronickel, or refined nickel, stainless steel mills have been accepting recent nickel pig iron production. This has resulted in small-scale nickel pig iron producers filling the gap left by the refined nickel shortage. Even when there is an oversupply of nickel, the small mills can drop nickel pig iron, and turn to producing other ferroalloy products, said John Redstone, senior analyst for metals and mining with Desjardins Securities. According to Warren Gilman from CIBC World Markets, global supply for most of the world's major mineral commodities, including nickel, continues to be tight and is expected to remain so in the near future. Since 2005, a number of new nickel projects have been delayed, which will created a supply shortage until 2009 or 2010. Gilman also pointed out that it usually takes 18 to 20 months for a mining project to come online and on budget. Recent investment has been limited to prospecting and exploration, but new funds from many mining companies floating on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will correct this lack of investment in the long run. This time lag will also support nickel prices. Nickel is currently the strongest performer on the LME and is expected to remain so for the near future. Chen from Antaike concluded that emerging nickel pig iron production would not impact China's refined nickel market in the long run, but the application of nickel pig iron will help to increase China's low nickel content stainless steel product output and expand their market shares. She suggested that the central government should issue regulations to the nickel pig iron sector in order to aid sustainable development. -IC & GD |
|
| aus der Diskussion: | REGENCY MINES PLC - ja ist denn schon Weihnachten? |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | XIO (17.06.07 22:29:40) |
| Beitrag: | 133 von 295 (ID:29986259) |
| Alle Angaben ohne Gewähr © wallstreetONLINE | |