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Buy, Kursziel angehoben auf 63 von 61,50 EUR, 25.6.2007) The roadshows in Edinburgh and London last week with CEO Dr. Simon Moroney suggested that numerous earnings growth catalysts lie ahead: 1. Movement of a third partnered drug into clinical phase 1 signalled the progression of the pipeline and further evidenced the HuCAL technology. The DCF model on future royalties has been adjusted accordingly. Movement of drugs through phases normally triggers a small single-digit million milestone. However, it seems possible that 2 further drugs will enter phase 1 before the end of this year. Therefore upside remains to estimates that currently only include 1 milestone triggered in 2007 (EBIT guidance € 7 - € 10m). 2. Roche’s Alzheimer drug could be pushed forward through clinical trials, resulting in earlier than anticipated entry to market (before 2011?) and thus earlier recognition of royalty payments. First Phase 1 results from Roche’s Alzheimer drug could be expected at the beginning of 2008. The drug shows significant promise in removing plaque (believed to be the cause of Alzheimer’s) from the brains of mice. The exceptionally large clinical phase 1 trials in over 200 individuals suggest Roche is already trying to find clinical efficacy (normally phase 1 uses only c. 10 healthy volunteers to test for toxicity). 3. Announcements regarding GPC Botech’s Phase 1 cancer program is expected in H2 as the study is nearing completion. It could be possible that this drug is also pushed forward onto the market. 4. Sizable acquisition expected in the Research Antibody division. Considering the recent capital increase used to fund such an acquisition (> € 30m raised with now a € 100m war chest), it is likely that MorphoSys has specific targets in mind. An acquisition in this division would be very positive for the company as catalogue antibodies depend on scale in terms of customer recognition and marketing. 5. MorphoSys are likely to file for an IND on its proprietary antibody program later this year so that this will enter the clinic in 2008. If this antibody is successful into clinical phase 2, it can be sold with a much greater upfront payment and receive higher milestones and royalties than the partnered programs (and is thus extremely attractive strategy for MorphoSys to pursue). Therefore, with such positive newsflow expected in the short-term, the recent fall in the share price seems to supply a good entry point back into the stock. Furthermore, considering the recent heavy M&A activity of large pharma acquiring antibody companies (13 acquisitions in the last 2 years e.g. AstraZeneca/ CAT a 70% share price premium), MorphoSys itself remains a very attractive takeover target. BUY with a new PT of € 63 (old: € 61.50) based on CFRoEV 07 + DCF of further royalty payments. Gewinnreihe (Tabelle wird zusammenfallen, aber ich habe keinen Bock, die hier zu formatieren.) Profit and loss account (mill EUR) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e 2008e 2009e Sales 15 22 33 53 67 78 89 Cost of sales 0 1 3 8 10 11 17 Gross profit 15 21 31 45 57 67 72 Sales and marketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 General and administration 7 8 10 21 16 19 20 Research and development 9 11 14 17 32 36 39 Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other operating expenses 2 1 1 0 2 2 2 EBITDA -1 3 10 10 11 15 16 Depreciation 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 EBITA -2 3 9 9 10 13 14 Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Amortisation of intangible assets 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 Impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT -3 1 6 6 7 10 11 Interest income 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 Interest expenses 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other financial result 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 Financial result 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 Income on ordinary activities before taxes -3 0 5 5 7 11 11 Extraordinary income/loss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBT -3 0 5 5 7 11 11 Taxes 0 0 0 -1 2 3 3 Net income from continuing operations -3 0 5 6 5 7 8 |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Morphosys - alles bereits eskomptiert ! ;) |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Trading4aLiving (19.07.07 22:33:42) |
| Beitrag: | 64 von 70 (ID:30767480) |
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