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`External factors could slash growth to 1.5%` AFTER clipping along at more than 4 per cent last year, the economy`s growth could almost stall at 1.5 per cent this year as a hard landing in the United States and a sharp economic slowdown in Japan take their toll on exports, an economic advisor to the premier said yesterday. Supavud Saicheua, economic advisor to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, said external economic turbulence, particularly economic difficulties in the country`s major trading partners, the US and Japan, could slash up to two percentage points off the 3.5-per-cent projected growth in Thailand`s gross domestic product this year. He emphasised that there was no way Thailand could avoid being dragged down along with the global slump, as exports had contributed about 60 per cent of last year`s GDP growth and the US, European Union and Japanese markets had accounted for two-thirds of the country`s total exports. Exports, the main engine of Thai economic growth in the past few years, contracted 3.9 per cent year on year in January against a 19.6-per-cent rise for all of last year. Supavud, also senior vice president of Merrill Lynch Phatra Securities Co Ltd (MLP), expressed his concerns at a seminar on "Investment Opportunities in 2001" yesterday in the wake of rising fears over a possible new round of economic crisis here. Such fears have been snowballing since the Nasdaq index plunged below 2,000 points, the lowest level in 27 months, while the Tokyo stock market index also slipped to a 17-year low. In addition, the yen fell past its key support level of ¥120 against the US dollar, pushing the baht and all other regional currencies down in tandem. However, the chance that Thailand will plunge into a new economic crisis is slim, given that external debt has fallen dramatically from US$109.3 billion (Bt4.8 trillion) in the middle of 1997 to $80.2 billion last year. "We`re now in a better position than in the past three years, when external debt was abnormally high," Supavud said. "But we cannot avoid negative impacts from external turbulence as we have a close trade linkage with these troubled countries." MLP projects global economic growth for this year at 2.4 per cent, down sharply from 4.1 per cent last year. It expects Thai gross-domestic-product growth to ease to 2.5 or 3 per cent year on year in the first half before picking up to 4 per cent in the second half. It estimates that growth last year was 4.1 to 4.2 per cent. MPL foresees doom ahead for the US, the largest engine of global economic growth, with significant slowdown in growth, especially in the technology industry, weakening consumer confidence and increasing concerns over asset quality. To prevent the US economy from slipping into recession, the securities house sees a strong need for a greater relaxation of US monetary policy to get the economy back on track in the second half. MLP thinks that American short-term interest rates need to be chopped by 100 basis points this year. These cuts should be enough to prevent the US from a sharp slowdown and would be a boon for all countries in the world, it says. On the current economic situation in Japan, MLP said deflation was lingering and consumption remained weak. "Extra fiscal stimulus is needed and possibly a further easing of monetary policy in our view. We forecast that the yen should fall further to ¥120 to ¥130 against the US dollar," an MLP report said. All of these factors have put more pressure on Asian economies, which are still struggling to recover from the economic crisis, it added. To survive amid dim global economic prospects, Supavud said the Thai government needed to implement fiscal stimulus measures to boost the economy as interest rates could not be lowered significantly any more. Acceleration of non-performing-loan restructuring to strengthen corporations and revive investment is crucial to prevent a major economic slowdown, he noted. "US and Japan economic performances as well as success in debt-restructuring domestically will determine Thailand`s 2001 economic performance," he added. BY SIRIPORN CHANJINDAMANEE The Nation - 17.3.01. - |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Waste or make money in Thailand |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | BodyG (16.03.01 23:28:08) |
| Beitrag: | 555 von 611 (ID:3119850) |
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