@rpg
die technischen Reaktionen laufen doch, allerdings ausschließlich intraday.
Z.b. Freitag von 11.7 auf über 13.
Der Sektor ist immer noch sehr ambitioniert bewertet,
die Telcos glänzen durch restriktive Sparmaßnahmen.
Auch die Stars des vergangenen Jahres, stellvertretend
seien Juniper und Redback genannt, werden einen
schlechteren guidance nach den Quartalszahlen geben.
RBAK um die 10, JNPR bei 28, vorher würde ich keines falls long gehen.
Intraday spielt momentan die Musik.
Anbei ein Artikel über Juniper, der fast 1 zu 1
auch für Redback seine Gültigkeit besitzt.
Telecom/Networking Equipment
Juniper`s Turkey Could be Overstuffed
By Warren Shiau (wshiau@stockhouse.com)
Monday, April 2
When Juniper Networks [JNPR] raised its guidance for fiscal 2001 earlier this year, there seemed to be little cause for doubt. But a lot has changed since mid January. Telecom and networking equipment spending has fallen off a cliff, and rival Cisco Systems [CSCO] is closing in on Juniper`s high-end product lead. Juniper`s share price has fallen off a cliff too. On Friday, it closed at $37.96 compared to a 52-week trading high of $244.50, and things could get even worse. The momentum seems to be with Cisco as it edges closer instead of falling further behind.
When there`s a slowdown in equipment spending, carrier and enterprise capital expenditure budgets tend to be allocated towards buying the best available product. Because Juniper has the best products, the company is insulated from such spending delays.
Working along the lines of this theory, Juniper raised its guidance during its last earnings call. The company projects revenues of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion for fiscal 2001, which represents more than 120% growth over fiscal 2000 sales of $673.5 million.
But the theory doesn`t work if economic conditions deteriorate to a point where carrier and enterprise capital expenditure budgets are cut back across the board. Many carriers have so much excess network capacity right and are selling Internet Protocol (IP) based services below cost. This kind of excess is not a good incentive for buying more IP equipment.
Another sign that things may not be going exactly according to plan is Juniper CEO Scott Kriens recently issuing statements in a cautious tone. He was recently quoted in a Light Reading interview: "Our issue is not so much the specifics of what is expected of us. We measure ourselves on the basis of taking advantage of our opportunity as a company."
Both Cisco and Nortel Networks [NT] are indicating they are facing longer, more serious business slowdowns than they anticipated. The companies are also experiencing increased price and margin pressure. Juniper noted that it started to experience similar pressure during its last fiscal quarter, ended December 31, but it was alleviated by its strength in the high-end of the market. Reverting to Juniper`s original revenues guidance of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion in sales might be safer than continuing to assume the company will meet its higher target.
Juniper`s ability to soften the impact of price and margin pressure on its sales and earnings will diminish as Cisco comes closer to having high-end, OC-192 class product that is fully competitive with Juniper`s equipment. The question is whether or not Juniper`s product superiority increases or decreases over time. Cisco`s adjustments to get to Juniper levels of performance won`t happen immediately, and won`t likely come until sometime in the second half of the year. But the momentum seems to be with Cisco as it edges closer instead of falling further behind. It`s going to be harder for Juniper to keep up its growth rates if this continues, especially when demand seems to be slowing more and more.
Juniper forecasted its fiscal 2001 sales at $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion before raising its guidance to $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2001 earnings per share (EPS) on the old sales guidance was $0.81. On the new sales guidance the consensus EPS estimate has risen to $1.05.
Reverting to Juniper`s original revenues guidance of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion in sales might be safer than continuing to assume the company will meet its higher target. Juniper`s fiscal 2000 net margin of 28% will be impossible to maintain through fiscal 2001. A projection of 10% to 15% is far lower than any current estimate but still significantly higher than Cisco`s comparable margin to account for Juniper`s stronger product mix. From these numbers comes an estimated fiscal 2001 EPS of $0.37 to $0.60.
There`s a chance things won`t actually turn out this badly for Juniper. But there are more reasons for the company to guide down, rather than up. Even though it`s one of the world`s greatest technology firms, it may not be a good idea to buy Juniper`s stock right now. The bottom for the company`s share price could fall far lower than the $35 to $40 area it`s in now.
rob