[posting]33501022[/posting]Aus dem iHub: "Potentielle" Bewertung!!!
Posted by: stervc
In reply to: None Date:2/28/2008 5:03:21 AM
Post #of 24142
HCPC “Actual” Valuation as of 28 Feb 2008…
Before you read any further within this post, please understand, the #1 reason why people buy a stock is because of its POTENTIAL. If you buy HCPC or any stock because of what I had or will post, know that you do so at your own risk as I only try to show the “potential” of a stock given certain parameters and variables created by the company’s product, business, or service that’s the topic of discussion at such time. Below, we will talk about both; actual and potential valuation.
HCPC has closed loans in the amount of $11.1 million as PR-ed below on 26 Feb 08:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=hcpc
(Click where it says “News”)
We can now derive an “actual” valuation for HCPC. We can now expect the share price to reflect such share appreciation as depicted below:
Now with the closing of this $11.1 million, HCPC can jumpstart its program with a good chance to become self-sufficient and en route to the closing of the $861,000,000 applicants requests that are currently in the pipeline for HCPC as indicated below from the HCPC Financials filed on 18 Jan 08 on pinksheets.com below:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=hcpc
(Click where it says “Filings”)
** The HCPC Management has a pipeline of applicants’ requests for funding $861,000,000 as of the end of 2007.
From the PR released on 9 Oct 07:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=hcpc
(Click where it says “News”)
** HCPC expects to receive a 5% origination fee for each loan funded (as Income).
** HCPC plans to use 35% of its Income to buy back stock to retire back to the Treasury.
Share Structure as of 15 Feb 08
http://www.heritagecapitalcreditcorp.com/id15.html
10,000,000,000 Shares = Authorized Shares (AS)
5,852,374,517 Shares = Outstanding Shares (OS)
4,096,423,102 Shares = Float
The above information is key to help us derive first the “actual” valuation for where HCPC should be fundamentally trading and then the “potential” valuation as to where HCPC could fundamentally be potentially trading given the closing/funding of all projects as a best case scenario.
HCPC “Actual” Valuation as of 28 Feb 08
Revenues (actually generated) = $11,100,000
Income = 5% of $11,100,000 = $555,000
Buyback Funds = 35% of $555,000 = $194,250
This means that HCPC will have a total of $194,250 of funds available to buyback shares from the $550,000.00 earned as Income.
Income ÷ Outstanding Shares (OS) = Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$555,000 ÷ 5,852,374,517 = EPS
0.00009 = EPS
.00009 EPS x 12 Conservative PE Ratio = Current HCPC Valuation
0.0011 = Current HCPC Valuation
This means that from the loans that HCPC has already closed, we should be fundamentally sitting at no lower than .0011 per share while we continue our upward movement as we await for them to close more loans to further enhance our HCPC “actual” fundamental valuation. Given the “potential” valuation as you will see, we should be sitting much higher as ”POTENTIAL” is the #1 reason why people buy a stock.
So, while we obtain and wait at .0011 per share (or higher), the potential that HCPC intends on capturing for a total loan amount of $861,000,000 as filed in their last financials released on 11 Jan 08, is depicted below.
HCPC “Potential” Valuation as of 28 Feb 08
Revenues (potentially generated) = $861,000,000
Income = 5% of $861,000,000.00 = $43,050,000
Buyback Funds = 35% of $43,050,000.00 = $15,067,500
This means that HCPC will ”potentially” have a total of $15,067,500 of funds available to buyback shares from the $43,050,000 earned as Income.
Income ÷ Outstanding Shares (OS) = Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$43,050,000 ÷ 5,852,374,517 = EPS
0.0074 = EPS
.0074 EPS x 12 Conservative PE Ratio = Current HCPC Valuation
0.089 = Current HCPC “Potential” Valuation
This means that if HCPC continues executing their business objectives as they have greatly shown that such seems to be the case with the closing of two loans already for $11.1 million, then there is a solid reason to believe that HCPC will reach this “potential” that exists from the combined $861,000,000 worth of applicants in the pipeline for closing.
The key reason as to why the HCPC valuation gets better is because of the 35% of Income that could be used to buy back shares to reduce the OS and the Float by retiring those shares back to the Treasury. The lower the OS goes, the higher the valuation increases.
The thoughts above could be considered very conservative in nature by some while on the contrary to others. One of the individuals within the forum had actually gone to the HCPC Shareholder’s Meeting a few months back. He mentioned that the company’s Underwriter believed that HCPC should be trading in the $42.00 to $45.00 per share price range. See the post below:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id…
That was very powerful with it coming from the company’s Underwriter at the company’s Shareholder Meeting. Heck, even if he will only be a fraction of a percent correct, that should land HCPC to be somewhere in the pennies. I’m definitely not saying that HCPC is the next MSFT as what others apparently has insinuated, but I am saying that it is still significantly undervalued at these levels in my opinion.
Again, this post is not to be considered the gospel as to where HCPC will definitely be heading, but instead, only a framework to use to understand the potential that could exist from HCPC if they continue executing their business objectives.
v/r
Sterling