[posting]34314156[/posting]Nachstehend ein interessanter Analysten-Kommentar zu den hier im Forum kritisierten Bilanzpositionen:
After the Q1 report, discussions emerged about the P&L quality of the company. In our view this relates to a misunderstanding of the P&L and the balance sheet.
Wirecard revenue – the company recognises revenue only on a net basis. In effect, when a consumer purchases a product/service online Wirecard only recognises its fee, which is typically a small percentage of the overall transaction value, as revenue. Last year, revenue was €134m, which we estimate relates to a total transaction value of more than €4,000m
In the balance sheet, however, receivables and trade payables relate to the total transaction value, which as mentioned we believe was more than €4bn in FY 2007. Receivables relate to the money Wirecard collects for its customers from the acquiring banks (if it does not operate as an acquiring bank), or which it directly collects from the credit card institutes (as Wirecard provides the acquiring services for its customers).
Hence, we believe it is inappropriate to apply commonly used ratios like receivable collection period or payment period relating P&L data to the balance sheet. The same is true for relating receivables to sales, which seems to be one topic of discussion. This suggests that at the end of 2007, receivables represented 56% of FY 2007 sales (in our view, this is a poor figure for an industrial company) or in Q1 even 236%. Importantly, at the same time trade payables accounted for 62% and 218% in terms of sales, respectively. If we want to relate P&L data to balance sheet, we would net trade receivables and trade payables (excl. acquiring deposits), which were (€7.9m) as at 31.12.2007 and € 7.4m as at 31.03.2008. We believe it makes more sense to relate the balance sheet data to the transaction volume. Based on this, we would arrive at a collection period of less than 10 days for FY 2007.
As an intermediary in a payment process, the time frames of collecting money and transferring it to the merchants are quite short and we believe the numbers could always be biased in relation to a balance sheet date due to timing issues. This is why we always track the change in cash by netting all current assets and liabilities, and do not consider the cash shown in the balance sheet as if it belongs to the company (it also includes customer deposits). According to our calculations, cash belonging to the company was c €19m and not €169m as shown in the balance sheet at the end of Q1 as cash and cash equivalents (at the year end 2007 this would suggest €22m as against €157m as shown in the balance sheet). Note that we already deducted the purchase price obligations in the amount of c €22m at the end of Q1 in this calucalation.
In our view the valuation looks increasingly attractive at current share price levels . The shares trade at 16.1x PER 2009E and 13.2x PER 2010E, which stands at a discount of 29% on PER 2009E to its peer group, including US-listed Cybersource and UK listed Datacash (based on Reuters and Bloomberg consensus). Based on our current DCF assumptions of 3% long-term growth, an EBIT margin of 25% and WACC of 8.2%, the implied fair value per share is €15 – unchanged since our last publication. For the implied fair value from our DCF to match the current share price, then the terminal margin would need to fall to 18% from our current forecast of 25%, or perpetuity growth would need to fall to 1% compared with our current base case of 3%.
We do not see any deterioration in the business case or a slowdown in the growth drivers (increasing online spending and outsourcing trends at online retailers). We maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation.
So viel zu den hier im Forum so gerne diskutierten Bilanzfragen...
Ich fürchte für die Shorties unter Euch, dass eine baldige 14 viel wahrscheinlicher ist, als jemals die 2 zu sehen.
|aus der Diskussion:||Wirecard - Top oder Flop|
|Autor (Datum des Eintrages):||proShare (17.06.08 13:18:14)|
|Beitrag:||71 von 61,941 (ID:34315761)|
|Alle Angaben ohne Gewähr © wallstreet:online|