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Hallo! nur mal kurz: S&P 500: June S&P fell sharply early in response to the big jump in weekly unemployment claims which sparked concern of a weak employment report this morning, then managed to recoup about half of the loss late in the day, indicating that equities probably haven`t topped out. As mentioned before, a weak employment report could be rationalized as bullish by favoring aggressive Fed rate cuts, setting the stage for a stronger economy later this year. We have a feeling the stock market will stay in an up phase. The next technical target is 1300. Aggressive traders should hold call options. Support (basis June): 1243, 1238, 1232, 1227, 1221, 1215, 1209, 1204. Resistance: 1254, 1260, 1266, 1271, 1277, 1282, 1288, 1293, 1299, 1305. Turning Points: None. Comments: The S&P, Thursday, traded lower. Because of the way the market closed on Thursday, chances are the market will attempt to retest its recent highs. For Friday, look for the market to lose momentum to the downside in the morning and make an attempt to reverse to the upside. Look for fade a morning move to the downside anticipating a reversal to the upside. Trail stops. TODAY: April Unemployment at 730 am, expected up 0.1% at 4.4%. Non-farm Payroll Employment expected up 50,000. Average Hourly Earnings expected up 0.3%. Chicago Fed President Moskow speaks at 8 am. Economic Comment - Fri 5/4/01 Market Focus:cus: (1) the US credit market which settled sharply higher on Thursday in anticipation of a weak April unemployment report, (2) the US stock market which settled moderately weaker as long liquidation pressures emerged, (3) the FX market where the dollar edged a bit higher against the euro, but sagged against the yen, and (4) the commodities market where the CRB index closed sharply stronger. April unemployment report is expected to be soft -- Today`s release of the April unemployment report is expected to show a small +30,000 worker gain in non-farm payrolls. That would retrace some of March`s -86,000 worker decline, but remain far below the average monthly increase of +114,000 workers posted through the first 3 months of the year. As usual, the limited strength in today`s report will likely stem from the service-sector. In fact, goods-producing payrolls are expected to be soft. Weakness in this component will be fed by an expected -50,000 worker slide in manufacturing payrolls. That would add to March`s -81,000 worker drop and mark the 9th straight decline in factory employment as manufacturing bears the brunt of the slowdown in the US economy. Elsewhere in the goods-producing component, the markets will keep an eye on the behavior of construction payrolls which have climbed for 3 straight months through March. Any weakness in construction hiring could be seen as a sign that the strength in the housing sector is beginning to wear thin. Within the service-sector, the markets will look for strength in the narrow services category which includes business and health care payrolls. Of interest will be the behavior of retail payrolls which may receive a boost from the Easter holiday. A decline could underscore worries about the potential for emerging softness in consumer spending. Elsewhere in the establishment survey, the markets will keep a close eye on the average workweek. Forecasts call for a -0.1 hour decline to 34.2 hours. That would reverse March`s +0.1 hour gain, but still leave the workweek just above December`s 5-1/4 year low of 34.1 hours. The markets will also monitor the factory workweek which held steady at 40.7 hours in March which was just above the December 5-1/4 year low of 40.4 hours. Any sustained rebound in the factory workweek would be a strong signal that the manufacturing sector of the economy is stabilizing. In addition, investors will watch the behavior of average hourly earnings. Forecasts call for a +0.3% m/m and +4.2% y/y gain to $14.21. That would be down a bit from March`s +0.4% m/m and +4.3% y/y gain to $14.17. That +4.3% year-on-year advance matched Dec`s 3-year high, leaving earnings growth just below the April 1998 and March 1989 17-1/2 year peak of +4.4%. Stubborn strength in average earnings is probably a lingering effect of the exceedingly tight US labor market which only really began to loosen in earnest in recent months. However, should this strength continue, it will fan inflation jitters among some investors, especially given the Fed`s aggressive 200 bp in easing through the first 4 months of the year. In the household survey, all eyes will be on the civilian unemployment rate which is expected to tick another notch higher, up +0.1 point to 4.4%. That would mark a new 2-year high, leaving it mildly above September`s and October`s 31-1/3 year low of 3.9%. Friday`s unemployment report will be critical for the financial markets. An exceedingly weak reading would erase worries about underlying strength in the US economy. Such worries were ignited with last Friday`s stronger than expected Q1 GDP report of +2.0%. A weak unemployment report would even rekindle speculation about another 50 bp easing at the May 15th FOMC meeting. On the other hand, strength in Friday`s report would reinforce the unexpected strength in the GDP report and could bolster talk that any May easing will be limited to 25 bp. US CreditMarket -- Closes: USM +28, TYM +21.5, EDU +3.0 bp. Bullish factors: (1) the weakness in Thursday`s initial unemployment claims report, coupled with the small advance in layoffs in the Challenger survey, both of which fed expectations for a weak April unemployment report, (2) the modest decline in share prices, (3) the continued unwinding of yield curve steepening positions, and (4) short-covering, especially on the long-end of the curve. US Stock Market -- Closes: Dow Industrials -80.03 at 10,796.65; S&P 500 -18.85 at 1248.58; NASDAQ Composite -74.46 at 2146.14; Russell 2000 -5.99 at 485.65. Bearish factors: (1) revived concerns over the economy (and corporate profits) after weekly initial unemployment claims rose to a 5+ year high and the NAPM non-manufacturing index fell, (2) general profit taking pressures after the surge seen in April, exacerbated by position squaring ahead of Friday`s unemployment report, (3) some short-term technical weakness as the cash S&P 500 fell back below the key 1250 level, (4) valuation concerns with the S&P 500 trading at 28 times 12-month trailing earnings, quite high from an historical perspective, and (5) the broad nature of Thursday`s sell-off which touched most of the market. Forex -- Closes: dlr/yen -.35 at 121.43; euro/dlr -.0037 at $.8895. Bullish factors for the dollar: (1) some long liquidation in the euro/dollar which failed to rebound to the 90 cent mark, (2) persistent worries that the ECB`s failure to loosen monetary policy will exacerbate the slowdown in the Euro zone economy, and (3) a raft of weak data out of the Euro zone, especially the soft French industrial and consumer sentiment. happy trades arthur |
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| aus der Diskussion: | DAX/Dow/Nasdaq chart- u. optionstechnisch (18.KW) |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | arthur_trader (04.05.01 10:26:25) |
| Beitrag: | 25 von 29 (ID:3447789) |
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