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DKIB EQ: Vivacon (Buy) - Remarkable quiet in recent weeks 2008-10-28 05:04:46.310 GMT Vivacon (Buy) - Remarkable quiet in recent weeks - VIVACON has recently confirmed its outlook for 2008 with net profit of EUR60m. However, markets are sceptical if the company can close a third securitization of ground leases as indicated. While we regard a transaction still as possible but also as essential we have lowered our earnings forecast for 2009 and 2010 leading to a lower target price of EUR11.00. We reiterate the Buy rating. - The last quarter has always been the most active for VIVACON also in previous years. We think that for this year markets' expectations are extremely high and VIVACON has to deliver in terms of acquisition volumes of ground lease portfolios as well as closing a securitization of ground leases. Both is essential to strengthen markets' confidence in the company's business model which is questioned in particular in current markets' environment. - For the retail business with the development of high-end apartments we have lowered our assumptions by 10% on average. Also portfolio trading should come down which is in-line with VIVACON's new focus on the acquisition of direct ground lease portfolios. Our assumptions for property management remains unchanged. All in all we expect that net profit in 2009 will come down by 11% and by 5% in 2010. - Today the stock is trading at its 52W-Low which is not justified in our view. VIVACON's guidance policy has been reliable and the company has delivered. It has to be admitted that times have changed but at current levels the stock is trading at 0.3x book value. Keep in mind that the properties are accounted at cost! We would recommend to buy ahead of 9M-results (13 Nov) and see significant upside for the stock. With EUR11.00 as new target price due to earnings downgrade we keep the Buy rating. To see all DKIB research on Vivacon {VIA GR <Equity> CN DDI <GO>} Property {NI 344568 <GO>} To see all DKIB estimates and forecasts on Vivacon http://research.dresdnerkleinwort.com/goto/VIVG.DE To see all DKIB estimates and forecasts on Property http://research.dresdnerkleinwort.com/goto/3047806 Kai Klose +44 (0)20 7475 2436 kai.klose@dkib.com |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Vivacon - 100% Chance mit Ansage ! |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | superman (28.10.08 07:59:39) |
| Beitrag: | 16,112 von 33,144 (ID:35724057) |
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