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Selbst wenn die Zahlen, die im übrigen am 30. Mai veröffentlicht werden , schlecht ausfallen, ist dies keine Überraschung mehr, sondern im Kurs bereits eingepreist. Wichtiger sind deswegen auch nicht die Zahlen für Q1, sondern der Ausblick auf Q2 und das gesamte Jahr 2001. Heyde hat eine neue vielversprechende Führungsmannschaft bekommen, die mittlerweile das Unternehmen ziemlich aufgeräumt hat. Auf der HV im Juli wird ein neuer Aufsichtsratsvorsitzender gewählt werden. Prior hat bereits einen möglichen Namen ausgeplaudert und dieser könnte vermutlich Vertrauen in das Unternehmen zurückgewinnen. Die letzen Analystenkommentare waren durchweg positiv gestimmt. Ein Beispiel: "Loeb Partner, Cooper Wolpert Division, 7.5.2001 Heyde (HEY-€3.10) – Getting Back on the Track:1Q Status Report Opinion: BUY Heyde at its analysts meeting Thursday (5/03) in Frankfurt made a good start on the road back to credibility with investors, disclosing for the first time its full P&L statement and balance sheet for the year 2000, as well as 1Q01 figures, and projections for full year 2001 growth. As of the meeting date management is on record to the effect that Heyde will return to the profit column in 4Q01 on an EBIT basis, with full year 2001 revenues up 9% to approximately €174M. We think that this effectively resets a platform for investors’ future growth expectations, which has been lacking during the past several months as management sought to clean up serious accounting and operating deficiencies, and set its house in order. The projected 4Q01 positive EBIT will likely not be of great magnitude, probably on the order of €1.0M, according to our estimates. It is also true that to fulfill this goal Heyde must move steadily forward from a reported €9.9M negative EBIT in 1Q01, but we have respect for the projection, because we sense that the company has new momentum. Moreover, employment reductions already announced should save some €5.0M against year 2001 results, beginning in 2Q01. Due to the positive impact of the layoff and to an across-the-board tightening of expenses, we are slightly decreasing the estimated full year 2001 EPS operating loss to €21.0M or €0.46 per share (45.5M shares) on revenues of €174M. Including one-off charges of €16.2M (€0.35 per share) and presuming no tax recoveries, our revised full year 2000 EPS thus comes to a loss of €0.81.Our earlier estimate had called for an EPS operating loss of €0.55 on the same revenue figure. The non-recurring expenses in the year 2001 of €16.2M include €9.1M in restructuring costs (layoff of some 90 people, payments to consultants, and real estate lease terminations), €5.9M to write down the value of the company’s UK subsidiary Tantus to zero, and €1.2M in special management severance payments. All of the foregoing non–recurring items impacted reported 1Q01 operations. As reported earlier (Updates 4/16) EPS in the full year 2000 (12/31) came to a loss of €20.8M or €0.46 per share, on revenues of €159.4M. Heyde’s reported 1Q01 (3/31) EPS were an operating loss of €0.24 per share before the €0.35 in one-off charges, on revenues of €41.2M. In the year ago period, EPS were €0.04 on revenues of €29.9M; however the two periods are not strictly comparable due to acquisitions made over the course of the year 2000. Bearing the acquisition benefit in mind, the growth of Heyde’s supply chain management business in1Q01 still was outstanding—a 103% YOY increase to revenues of €23.8M. The company’s financial services revenues were down 10% YOY in 1Q01 to €17.0M, as banks pulled back on their investment programs beginning late last year. Some improvement in the finance business was however evident in the closing weeks of the quarter. With further expected gains in supply chain and some boost from financial business, we estimate 2Q EPS at a loss of €0.18 (again no tax recovery is assumed) on revenues of €44.0M. Heyde’s financial condition has visibly suffered under the burden of its problems, but it is definitely curable in our view, given the commitments that have already been made by its major banks to provide whatever short term financing is necessary to see the company through to sustained profitability. The existing short term arrangements will shortly be supplemented by long term bank financing, probably within the next few weeks, we are told. As of year end 2000, the company’s debt-to-total-capital ratio had more than doubled to 22%, with bank debt at €20.9M, and equity at €74.9M, while the current ratio was barely 1.5-to-1.0 with current assets at €56.2M and current liabilities at €37.7M. Heyde currently has bank commitments for €40.0M to support its full year 2001 needs, of which €11.0M had been extended as of the end of 1Q01. The company’s banks have agreed to provide the remaining €29.0M in 2001 financial needs, in accord with Heyde’s plan to sell off assets in the amount of €30.0M to pay down the credits provided. At the top of the for-sale list are the UK subsidiaries, which account for about 4% of total company revenues. On the basis of the evident hard work that has gone into the 1Q report and future projections, we believe that CEO Dirk Wittenborg and COO Bert Salzinger have steered the company onto a sustainable growth base, and that patient investors will be accordingly rewarded. In this regard the fact that founder Dieter Heyde has not yet been taken into the Supervisory Board further demonstrates the controlling roles that Wittenborg and Salzinger have now assumed. We still feel it likely that Mr. Heyde will be voted in at some point, but the fact that he has not been as of this date—four months after the year-end mismanagement disclosures—makes an important statement that a new, younger management generation has indeed taken over at Heyde." Damit ergibt sich ein durchaus positives Bild. Meines Erachtens sind nächste Woche durchaus 30% Kurssteigerung drin. Mein Kursziel: 5 Euro bis Ende nächster Woche. |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Heyde mit Kurspotenzial - Charttechnischer Ausbruch - Gerüchte um Übernaheme |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Ruckizucki (23.05.01 16:19:20) |
| Beitrag: | 3 von 9 (ID:3583144) |
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