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[posting]36301543[/posting]Die Kurse der US-Bonds beginnen zu fallen: U.S. 30-Year Bonds Drop Amid Concern Debt Sales to Reach Record By Dakin Campbell and Daniel Kruger Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) --Treasury 30-year bonds fell the most in seven weeks amid concern government efforts to spur the economy will lead to a record amount of debt sales as the U.S. prepares to auction $54 billion of notes this week. The yield on the so-called long bond exceeded 3 percent for the first time since Dec. 15, after plunging as low as 2.51 percent last month. Wall Street’s biggest bond firms say Treasuries will fall for the first time in a decade in 2009 as the flight to safety that generated the biggest returns since 1995 fades. Investors managing almost $1.2 trillion in bonds are the most negative toward U.S. debt on record. “The long end of the curve is under a lot of pressure,” said Richard Bryant, a trader of 30-year bonds at Citigroup Global Markets Inc., one of the 17 primary government security traders that deal with the Federal Reserve. “Obviously, this move has caught a lot of people by surprise.” The 30-year bond’s yield surged 21 basis points, or 0.21 percentage point, the most since Nov. 21, to 3.01 percent at 3:49 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. It touched 3.04 percent. The price of the 4.5 percent security due in May 2038 tumbled 5, or $50 per $1,000 face amount, to 128 26/32. The yield on the 10-year note climbed 13 basis points to 2.47 percent. Five-year note yields rose four basis points to 1.69 percent. Yields on 10-year notes were near their highest in three weeks relative to two-year notes as investors sold longer-term securities amid supply concerns. The spread between two- and 10- year note yields was 1.69 percentage points today, the widest since Dec. 15. It touched 1.25 percentage points, a six-month low, on Dec. 26. Note Sales The trend toward higher yields started in earnest on Dec. 31, said Martin Mitchell, head of government bond trading at the Baltimore unit of Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Ten-year note yields have gained 42 basis points since the start of trading that day. The last time the 10-year note suffered a similar selloff, yields rose 43 basis points in the three-day trading period from Sept. 18 through Sept. 22. That followed the government’s decision to bail out insurer American International Group Inc. Still, the run-up in 10-year yields probably makes them a “better buy” than before the yield gain, said Tom di Galoma, head of U.S. Treasury trading at Jefferies & Co., a brokerage for institutional investors in New York. ‘Worried About Supply’ The Treasury is scheduled to sell $8 billion of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities tomorrow and a record $30 billion of three-year notes on Jan. 7, $2 billion more than at the last sale of the security on Dec. 10. It will sell $16 billion of 10-year conventional notes on Jan. 8. That’s the same amount sold at the last auction, on Dec. 11, although it’s $4 billion more than forecast by Wrightson ICAP LLC, a research unit of the world’s largest inter-dealer broker in Jersey City, New Jersey. “The Treasury market is worried about supply, especially the first week of the year,” di Galoma said. Benchmark 10-year note yields will rise to 3 percent by the end of the year, while two-year note yields will increase to 1.20 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey of the 17 primary government security dealers that trade with the Fed. If the forecast is accurate, 10-year notes may lose 3.5 percent this year, the first loss since declining 8.3 percent in 1999. After last year’s rally, yields are so low that coupon payments can’t make up for any drop in bond prices, they said. ‘Pendulum Swings’ “We could start to see stability sooner than the market would otherwise expect,” said William O’Donnell, a U.S. government bond strategist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, in a Dec. 23 interview. UBS Securities is a primary dealer and a unit of Switzerland’s biggest bank. “As the pendulum swings from risk aversion to risk seeking, that will reduce Treasury demand.” Treasuries returned 14 percent in 2008, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Treasury Master Index. Fund managers surveyed by Ried, Thunberg & Co. were the most pessimistic on record about Treasuries, based on a survey of expectations for the end of June. The sentiment index dropped to 35 for the seven days ended Jan. 2 from 36 the week before. The economic analysis firm in Jersey City, New Jersey, surveyed 22 fund managers controlling $1.18 trillion. A reading below 50 means investors expect prices to fall. Treasuries earlier pared losses after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began buying mortgage-backed securities as part of a $500 billion program to support the U.S. housing market. Mortgage bonds issued by Fannie Mae outperformed Treasuries today after the Fed said it would buy the securities backed by home loans. The difference in yield between Fannie’s 30-year current coupon mortgage bonds and 10-year Treasuries fell to 1.58 percentage points, the smallest gap since Dec. 12. ‘A Little Cheaper’ “We’ve heard about the bubble in Treasuries and obviously we saw a lot of flight-to-quality bid in Treasuries,” said Thomas Roth, head of U.S. government bond trading in New York at Dresdner Kleinwort, another primary dealer. “Guys are probably looking to put some money to work in assets that look a little cheaper.” Democrats are scheduled to start drafting the biggest economic-recovery package in U.S. history this week, which may grow to $1 trillion, as the spending plan gains support from central-bank officials. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said yesterday at an economics conference in San Francisco that “it’s worth pulling out all the stops” with an economic recovery package. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, told the same gathering he believes a “big stimulus is appropriate.” The Treasury Department estimated it will auction as much as $2 trillion of debt this fiscal year, which began Oct. 1. U.S. marketable debt climbed to $5.82 trillion in November, the most ever, from $4.54 trillion a year earlier. To contact the reporters on this story: Dakin Campbell in New York at dcampbell27@bloomberg.net; Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: January 5, 2009 15:56 EST |
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| aus der Diskussion: | Der Weg in den Staatsbankrott |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Bre-X (05.01.09 22:33:03) |
| Beitrag: | 39 von 90 (ID:36310341) |
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