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Stellt Euch mal vor es würde chapter11 gar nicht geben bei Vermillion. Durch die FDA Zulassung wäre dies ein Blockbustertest welches dem Unternehmen dreistellige Millionebeträge erbringen würde. Wenn Sie aus Chapter11 rauskommen indem Sie einfach Ihre Schulden tilgen was ja glaube ich gerade mal gut 50 Millionen Dollar sind dann sähe die Zukunft sehr rosig aus. Stelle hier mal ne Rechnung aus dem Yahoo-Board rein : (alles nur seine persönliche darlegung also nichts fundiertes) These assumptions seem fair/conservative to me based on industry data. 5mln Test per year and a cost of 200 per test. That is 1$billion annual market opportunity. Assuming VRMLQ gets a 25% royalty - which appears to fair although this could range from 20% to 40% typically. 25% of $1Bn is 250mln in license income that Vermillion would receive. With the stock up here, the company will not need to do anything too dilutive to raise cash and payback debt. Let's assume the sell 3.7mln shares around these levels - which would guve them more cash than they need. $250mln in license income /10mln shares outstanding = 25.00 in EPS power which deserves a 10 or 20x multiple - either way you have a stock that could get to $250 - $500 per share. Even if you cut my assumptions by 80% - the stock is worth $50.00. These are just my opinions not a recomendation, but this type of operating leverage is unique - and it feels like very earlier innings here with lots of runway ahead of us. |
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| aus der Diskussion: | VERMILLION INC. scheint super zu sein! |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Woddy01 (28.09.09 16:21:19) |
| Beitrag: | 87 von 467 (ID:38070202) |
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