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Copper will trade at USD 11000 in a year - Goldman Sachs


Wednesday, 06 Oct 2010Goldman Sachs Group Inc said that copper will trade at USD 11,000 a metric tonne in a year as it raised price estimates because of swelling demand.

The forecast implies a 35% gain from the metal's current price. The bank had predicted on September 17th 2010 that copper would trade at USD 8,050 a tonne in 12 months. Goldman advised investors to buy the December 2011 contract as increasing demand leads to shortages of the metal.

Copper for three month delivery traded on the London Metal Exchange jumped 23% in the third quarter, the most in a year, helped by falling stockpiles and a weaker dollar. LME inventories shrank by 17% in the period, and the US Dollar Index , a six currency gauge of the greenback’s strength, slid 8.5%, the most since 2002.

Analysts including London based Mr Jeffrey Currie said in the report that "Supply demand deficits look set to grow on emerging market strength and improving demand from developed economies, which we expect to significantly outpace supply growth, drawing down inventories and creating market shortages. We don't believe that the market is fully pricing these shortages and the potential for demand rationing that lies ahead in 2011."

Goldman Sachs raised its three month forecast for the metal to USD 8,500 and increased its six month estimate to USD 8,800. It said that copper will average USD 9,300 a tonne next yea as compared with about USD 7,215 so far in 2010. Electrical equipment and construction are the main sources of demand.

Goldman Sachs also raised its 12 month forecast for zinc to USD 3,000 a tonne. The metal, used to rust proof steel, will likely stay in surplus for now because of supply growth, though the market will be more balanced in the year ahead and possibly swinging to times of deficit next year.

Zinc for three month delivery was last at USD 2,288 a tonne on the LME, reducing this year’s decline to 11%. The metal will average USD 2,575 in 2011.

(Sourced from www.bloomberg.net)
 
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