|
@all: An die Anti-IPO-Strategie (gegen Navtech) glaube ich nicht. So ein Prozeß ist kaum steuerbar und u.U. sehr riskant. Ich glaube das August-Rating der Deutschen Bank ist da eher aussagekräftig: "Today Tele Atlas presented its H1 2001 results. Sales were 8% below our estimates, however, EBIT and net income were in line with our forecasts. We have adjusted our 2001E and 2002E estimates. The current share price level reflects in our opinion the doubts of investors that Tele Atlas will manage to upgrade the US database without running out of cash. We think that Tele Atlas is well positioned as it operates in a duopolistic market with huge entry barriers and is European market leader (55% share) in the in-car navigation segment. On the other hand Tele Atlas needs to spend a large amount of money on upgrading its US database. This implies some risk, as this market is currently at a very early stage and it is hard to determine when and how fast the market will develop. However, as Tele Atlas can manage to a certain extent the amount of investments in the US database and therefore the expenditures, we do not expect the company to run into liquidity problems. We stick to our buy recommendation. At the EBIT level the company generated a loss of Euro -3.6 million, which was only Euro 0.4 million higher than our forecast (DB estimates: Euro –3.2 million). The net loss was slightly higher than we expected and at Euro –2.5 million also in line with our estimates. Due to the weak after-market sales, which are affected by the poor economic environment, Tele Atlas missed our sales forecast. The development of the rest of the business areas is on target, according to Tele Atlas. We have therefore reduced our top line growth for the full year 2001E by 8% and are now looking for sales growth of around 32.5% for 2001E. We understood that this is in line with Tele Atlas expectations. The loss at the EBIT level was mainly due to investments in the US database and higher selling and marketing expenses (the European business was EBIT positive in Q2 2001). Although sales were below our estimates EBITDA was only Euro 0.2 million lower than our expectations. This is a positive sign in our opinion because it shows that Tele Atlas could manage its expenses. Outlook Due to the weak economic environment the short-term outlook is cloudy. According to Tele Atlas, there are currently no market signals that demand for in-car navigation and telematics will take off shortly. The company is still convinced that the US market will kick off in 2003. We think the key question for Tele Atlas is when the US market will take off and how fast this market will develop. However, whenever the market does take off we believe that Tele Atlas will be well positioned to benefit from the market development. Cash Flow In Q1 2001 operating cash flow was Euro –9.6 million (change in cash position: Euro –12.3). In Q2 2001 the operating cash flow was Euro –11.3 million Euro (change in cash position: Euro –22.8 million). The difference between the negative operating cash flow and the change in cash position in Q2 2001 was mainly due to an extraordinary payment of Euro 9.6 million. This payment was the second tranche of the acquisition price for ETAK (US database). The total purchase price is being paid in three tranches (2000, 2001 and 2002) i.e. there will be a third and final payment of about Euro 9.5 million in 2002.According to Tele Atlas, the average cash requirement per quarter is about Euro 10-11 million.We therefore see no cash problem for the company(cash at the end of H1 2001: Euro 142.5). The company reiterated in today’s conference call that it would closely track the US in-car navigation and telematics market, which is still at an early stage. Tele Atlas surveys its market channels every three months to check how the current in-car navigation and telematics markets are developing. If there are signs that the market is not developing as expected the company will react quite rapidly i.e. intensify or reduce its investments in the US database and spread out the required investments over a longer period. We therefore do not expect any negative surprises such as losses on the bottom line of the P&L getting out of control or disproportionately high cash burn. Tele Atlas highlighted in today’s conference call that it still feels confident it can upgrade the US database without going to the market again. We reduced our sales forecast by 8% to Euro 80.7 million for 2001E. As interest income should be higher than expected and the CFO indicated today that full-year income tax will amount to approximately Euro 1 million, pre-tax profit, net income and also EPS are higher than our previous estimates for 2001E. Due to the cloudy short-term outlook we also reduced our forecast for 2002E and are now looking for sales of Euro 110.9 million (previous Euro 126.0 million). We now expect that Tele Atlas will also show a loss in 2002E and expect a negative EBIT of Euro -2.9 million. Tele Atlas expects to benefit mid- and long-term from the telematics market and we also believe that the company is well positioned. Although we see some risk in the US market (the biggest risk is the uncertainty of when the US market really starts to kick off), we think that Tele Atlas can benefit from this market. Additionally, the company has shown with its European business that it has the expertise and the tools to build up a database for digital maps. We think that under the assumption that the US telematics market will develop as expected, the share price has significant upside potential. FAZIT Moreover the current market capitalisation of Euro 160 million reflects nearby only the cash position of Tele Atlas (cash position end of H1 2001: Euro 142.5 million). We therefore stick to our buy recommendation. |
|
| aus der Diskussion: | TELE ATLAS - Aktie des Jahres 2003 und 2004! |
| Autor (Datum des Eintrages): | Lassemann (14.08.01 17:42:28) |
| Beitrag: | 21 von 396 (ID:4199369) |
| Alle Angaben ohne Gewähr © wallstreetONLINE | |